Fantasy Football Depth Charts

Murray should start immediately in Arizona, so the playing time will be there. He'll have Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk and a couple of good rookie prospects (Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler) to throw to, so the receiving corps isn't bad either. I use a regression model to generate a starting point for rookie quarterbacks and Murray comes in with the highest projected touchdown percentage, the highest projected yards per attempt, the third-highest projected rushing yards per game and the fourth-highest projected rushing touchdowns in the 42-player sample. His passing numbers (in the same system at Oklahoma) were eerily similar to Baker Mayfield's and Murray is a much better runner. Keep this fact in mind—since 2011, the four top scoring rookie quarterbacks were Cam Newton (706 rushing yards, 14 touchdowns), Robert Griffin III (815 yards, 7 touchdowns), Dak Prescott (282 yards, 6 touchdowns) and Russell Wilson (489 yards, 4 touchdowns), so being able to run will really help Murray’s chances to find fantasy success as a rookie. If the offensive line improves, Murray will have a shot at QB1 numbers.

Fitzgerald’s ADP is laughable. Arizona’s pass attempts dropped by 17.2% from 2017 to 2018 and he still finished as the No. 26 receiver in PPR formats. In all likelihood, he’s getting a massive quarterback upgrade, and the offense should be much more pass-friendly under new head coach Kliff Kingsbury. Normally, it's understandable to write off a soon-to-be 36-year-old receiver, but Jerry Rice had three 1,100-yard seasons after the age of 36, and Fitzgerald is capable of following in Rice’s footsteps. He’s a steal in the eighth or ninth round.

Jackson averaged 18.7 PPG in his eight starts. The Ravens hired ground-game aficionado Greg Roman to coordinate the offense so it’s crystal clear that the team will continue to emphasize the run with Jackson at quarterback. He will continue to rack up points with his legs, it’s doubtful that Roman will be able to maximize Jackson’s ability as a passer. Jackson should be a high-floor fantasy quarterback in 2019.

After a No. 2 finish in 2017, Newton was on pace for a No. 6 finish before his shoulder injury sidelined him for the final two games. It remains to be seen how he'll recover, but as the 12th quarterback off the board in early drafts, there's definitely some upside here.

Samuel started getting regular work in Week 11. In his final seven games, he averaged 3.9 catches for 53 yards and 0.43 touchdowns, which equates to a 62-846-7 pace over a 16-game season. He basically matched the production of D.J. Moore in that span. We’re expecting low-end WR3 numbers from Samuel in 2019.

Trubisky’s production was all over the place in 2018. He started the season with three sub-14.5-point games before his six-touchdown outburst in Week 4 that started a streak of four consecutive games with 21.9 points or more. Then, he scored 12.1 points or less in five of his final seven games.

Mayfield’s splits with Freddie Kitchens calling the plays are very encouraging for 2019, now that Kitchens has been promoted to head coach. Mayfield averaged 19.0 PPG from Week 9 on, after Kitchens took over. He had the No. 10 per game average in that span, and the Browns added Odell Beckham, so consider Mayfield a midrange QB1.

Prescott was shaping up as a great value heading into 2018, but then Jason Witten retired and the Cowboys cut Dez Bryant. Predictably, Prescott struggled before the team’s trade for Amari Cooper—he was the No. 24 quarterback through Week 8. However, with Cooper from Week 9 on, he was the No. 6 quarterback with a 19.1 PPG average. Including the team’s two playoff games, he averaged 19.9 PPG in 11 games with Cooper, playing at a 4305-yard, 32-total-TD pace when prorated to 16 games.

It was unclear how Cooper would fare after a midseason trade to the Cowboys, but the team got him very involved immediately and he responded with top tier production. In 11 games with Dallas, he averaged 6.0 catches for 81.5 yards and 0.64 touchdowns (a 96-1304-10.2 pace) on 8.5 targets per game. He should be treated as a bona fide fantasy WR1 heading into the 2019 season.

Through Week 10 (before his knee injury), Jones was the No. 26 receiver, and that was mostly prior to the Golden Tate trade. Early drafters have pegged Kenny Golladay as the WR1 for the Lions, but there’s a decent chance that Jones lead this receiving corps in fantasy points. In 25 games over the past two seasons, Jones is averaging 3.9 catches for 64 yards and 0.56 touchdowns. The biggest threat to Jones’s production is probably head coach Matt Patricia’s insistence on establishing the run. Jones looks like a steal in the early eighth round.

Allison started the season strong, posting receiving lines of 5-69-1 (8 targets), 6-64 (6), 2-76-1 (4) and 6-80 (11) in the first four games. That put him on a 76-catch, 1156-yard, eight-touchdown pace over a full season. He was on pace to see 116 targets so he was very much the team's WR2 before a groin/core muscle injury derailed his breakout campaign. However, it appears that Marquez Valdes-Scantling is running as the team’s WR2 in two-WR sets, so Allison looks to be slated for duties in the slot.

Fuller has averaged 4.1 catches for 71 yards and 1.0 touchdowns—which are high-end fantasy WR1 numbers—in 11 games with DeShaun Watson, but he has missed 15 games over the past two seasons. If he can stay healthy, he should return great value on his current seventh round ADP, though his injury history is obviously a big concern.

Hilton finished as the No. 14 WR despite missing two games, and would have finished in the top 10 had he played a full season. He barely practiced once he suffered an ankle injury in Week 15, but still managed to catch 23 passes for 429 yards and a touchdown in his final five games, including the postseason. Since 2016, he has averaged 5.7 catches for 92 yards and 0.41 touchdowns in 29 games with Andrew Luck under center. His targets may get pinched a bit given the weapons that the Colts added this offseason.

Funchess turns 25 this summer and is coming off of a disappointing season. He caught just 44 passes for 549 yards and four touchdowns after posting a 63-840-8 receiving line in his third-year breakout season. His role in the Carolina offense decreased as the year went on—the Panthers instead gave work to rookie D.J. Moore and the dynamic Curtis Samuel in the back half of the season. Even Jarius Wright was seeing more snaps. It was time for a change of scenery and, football-wise, Indianapolis is about as good as it gets for Funchess. The Colts struggled to find a steady No. 2 target in the receiving corps, so they utilized TE Eric Ebron in that role. Funchess will compete with rookie Parris Campbell for No. 2 WR duties. Given the presence of Ebron (110 targets), Jack Doyle (5.5 targets per game) and Nyheim Hines (81 targets), Funchess is not a shoo-in for 100+ targets, but he should see plenty of playing time and provide Andrew Luck with another big target in the red zone. Another eight-touchdown season is within reach.

In his last 12 full games for the Eagles, Foles has averaged 20.3 PPG, throwing for an average of 271 yards, 1.75 touchdowns and 0.83 interceptions per game. He should be a streaming option in Jacksonville.

Prior to Watkins’ injury, he was producing at a low-WR2 pace, so that would be his expectation if Tyreek Hill returns to the team and Watkins is able to stay healthy. If Hill doesn’t play and Watkins plays 14+ games—a big if—he’s a real threat for WR1 numbers in one of the most potent offenses in the league.

Goff should benefit from the return of a healthy Cooper Kupp. In 23 games with Kupp over the past two seasons, Goff averaged 279 yards and 2.0 touchdowns per game. In eight games with Kupp last season (and Brandin Cooks joining the receiving corps), Goff averaged 330 yards and 2.1 touchdowns per game.

In the seven games where Kupp played at least half the snaps, he averaged 5.7 catches for 81 yards and 0.86 touchdowns on 7.9 targets. That’s a 91-1294-13.7 pace. Fantasy-wise, that’s about what Adam Thielen scored as last year’s No. 7 receiver. Since entering the league, he has played at a high-end WR2 pace.

Despite a good per game average and two great receiving options, Cousins’ value is depressed thanks to Minnesota’s run-heavy attack late in the season under Kevin Stefanski. The team’s pace slowed by 6.4 plays per game and had an almost-even run/pass split in three games under Stefanski. As a result, Cousins’ per game production dropped to 15.8 PPG in that span. This doesn’t bode well for 2019.

In 13 games (including the playoffs), Edelman played at a 102-catch, 1232-yard, 7.4-touchdown pace. Rob Gronkowski has retired, which will leave Edelman as the primary weapon in the passing game, if he isn’t already. In the 11 games since 2016 with Gronkowski sidelined, Edelman has averaged 6.9 catches for 84 yards and 0.27 touchdowns per game. Those are solid WR1 numbers in PPR and half-PPR formats, yet Edelman is going off the board as a midrange WR2.

Ginn has played at a 56-797-5 (16-game) pace in his last 20 games. Those are low-end WR3 numbers. He’ll have to fend off Tre’Quan Smith for starter’s snaps opposite Michael Thomas.

The Giants are not a terrible landing spot for Tate. The quarterback situation could be (a lot) better, but there are a boatload of targets available after the Odell Beckham trade. Tate had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2016 and 2017 and was on pace for 1,182 yards through seven games with the Lions in 2018 before being traded to the Eagles. It's unlikely that he'll be a 90-catch/1,000-yard player in the Giants' run-heavy offense, but he could catch between 70-80 balls for 800-900 yards if things go well in New York. This signing is not good news for Sterling Shepard or Evan Engram since Tate is capable of soaking up a lot of targets.

Coming off of 63 catches for 941 yards and seven scores in his second season (and a No. 16 finish in half-PPR leagues), Anderson had a big Week 5 in 2018 (3-123-2 against the Broncos), but was otherwise disappointing through Week 13. Then, something strange happened: Anderson and Sam Darnold started to click. In consecutive games, Anderson posted receiving lines of 4-76-1, 7-96-1 and 9-140-1, averaging 9.8 targets per game in his last four. It helped that Quincy Enunwa was out, and there are market share concerns heading into 2019—the Jets signed Jamison Crowder and Le’Veon Bell—but it certainly helps that Anderson seems to have a fan in new HC Adam Gase, who raved earlier this year about Anderson’s speed and how smoothly he tracks the ball downfield.

The arrival of a bona fide elite WR1 (Antonio Brown) is great for Carr, but is it enough to turn him into a QB1? His career was certainly trending that way after a No. 14 finish in his second season (2015) and a No. 13 finish in (2016). Since then, he has posted back-to-back disappointing finishes (No. 22 and No. 18) in the last two seasons, and there were serious questions about whether Jon Gruden was committed to Carr as his franchise quarterback. It appears now that Gruden will move forward with Carr. Brown’s presence in Pittsburgh served to raise Ben Roethlisberger’s FP/Att by 10.2%, so if Brown sees a similar target share and posts similar per-target production in Oakland, then Carr’s per-attempt production should rise by about the same amount. Assuming the same volume as last year, that sort of rise would have made Carr the No. 15 QB instead of the No. 18 QB in 2018, so a QB1-type season is within reach if Carr exceeds expectations and/or Gruden cranks up his volume. The Raiders also added Tyrell Williams and cut Jordy Nelson.

Since the beginning of the 2017 season, Wentz has averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game, which is solid QB1 production. His 2018 production is considered a disappointment, but if we ignore his three-interception debacle in New Orleans, he averaged 19.0 fantasy points in his other 10 games, which is about what Philip Rivers scored as 2018's No. 13 fantasy quarterback. He had the third-highest per game average through 13 games in 2017, so he has proven top five upside.

The former second-rounder was highly productive in college, racking up 145 catches for 2929 yards and 23 touchdowns in his final two seasons at Oklahoma State. He won the Fred Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s top receiver in 2017 and was a favorite of #ReceptionPerception creator Matt Harmon as he evaluated last year’s draft class. After a strong preseason—catching seven passes for 158 yards and two touchdowns—Washington had a quiet rookie year, catching just 16 balls for 217 yards and a touchdown on 30 targets, but there wasn’t much room for Washington in the offense with Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster gobbling up 166+ targets apiece. Even though he was playing fifth fiddle in the passing game, Washington still played 55% of the snaps and had two of his best games late in the season, posting 3-65 on four targets against the Patriots in Week 15 and 3-64 on three targets in Week 17 with Brown sidelined. As a receiver who is very likely to see 100+ targets from Ben Roethlisberger in a potent offense, Washington is definitely in the WR3 mix this summer and has the upside to finish in the top 20.

Winston’s value has spiked since the arrival of new head coach Bruce Arians, who appears to be very committed to the former Heisman winner. In the 20 games over the past two seasons in which Winston attempted at least 25 passes—a way of filtering out a few of those games where Winston either did not start or was benched during the game—he has averaged 19.4 PPG. In 11 such games in 2018, he averaged 20.0 PPG. Those are top eight numbers. Arians’ history with Carson Palmer—20.8 PPG playing for Arians in 38 games from 2015-17—makes this look like a great pairing. If he’s going in the double-digit rounds, he’ll be a fantastic late-round quarterback option. Arians should be able to get the most out of Winston, especially with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard in the fold.

Godwin finished strong in 2017, posting 3-98 on six targets against the Panthers in Week 16 and 7-111-1 on 12 targets against the Saints in Week 17. In the five games as a rookie where he played at least 50% of the snaps, he averaged 4.2 catches for 73 yards and 0.20 touchdowns on 7.2 targets per game. In 2018, he finished the season as the No. 25 receiver despite the fact that he played more than 70% of the snaps in just six games, five of which came with DeSean Jackson mostly sidelined from Week 13 to Week 17. Godwin is expected to start, play some slot, and “is going to be close to a 100-catch guy,” per new HC Bruce Arians. Everything is lining up for a breakout season in 2019.