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Murray should start immediately in Arizona, so the playing time will be there. He'll have Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk and a couple of good rookie prospects (Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler) to throw to, so the receiving corps isn't bad either. I use a regression model to generate a starting point for rookie quarterbacks and Murray comes in with the highest projected touchdown percentage, the highest projected yards per attempt, the third-highest projected rushing yards per game and the fourth-highest projected rushing touchdowns in the 42-player sample. His passing numbers (in the same system at Oklahoma) were eerily similar to Baker Mayfield's and Murray is a much better runner. Keep this fact in mind—since 2011, the four top scoring rookie quarterbacks were Cam Newton (706 rushing yards, 14 touchdowns), Robert Griffin III (815 yards, 7 touchdowns), Dak Prescott (282 yards, 6 touchdowns) and Russell Wilson (489 yards, 4 touchdowns), so being able to run will really help Murray’s chances to find fantasy success as a rookie. If the offensive line improves, Murray will have a shot at QB1 numbers.
The touches (308) were there for Johnson in 2018, but his efficiency was down across the board. Most of the blame can be directed as the offense as a whole, but things should be a lot better this season with the arrival of Air Raid guru Kliff Kingsbury, dual-threat quarterback Kyler Murray and an improved receiving corps. This should put Johnson in a better position to succeed. Murray’s arrival should especially help. During the rookie seasons of Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson, their teams saw an increase of 18% in rushing attempts, an increase of 48% in rushing yards, an increase of 151% in rushing touchdowns and an increase of 26% in team yards per carry. Johnson’s ADP should be solidly in the first round.
|Chase Edmonds||T.J. Logan||D.J. Foster||Wes Hills|
Fitzgerald’s ADP is laughable. Arizona’s pass attempts dropped by 17.2% from 2017 to 2018 and he still finished as the No. 26 receiver in PPR formats. In all likelihood, he’s getting a massive quarterback upgrade, and the offense should be much more pass-friendly under new head coach Kliff Kingsbury. Normally, it's understandable to write off a soon-to-be 36-year-old receiver, but Jerry Rice had three 1,100-yard seasons after the age of 36, and Fitzgerald is capable of following in Rice’s footsteps. He’s a steal in the eighth or ninth round.
Kirk was on pace for a 57-787-4 season in 12 games played before a broken foot knocked him out for the remainder of the season. Those numbers would have made him a low-end WR3, which is where he’s currently being drafted. He’s now fully healthy, and is likely to see a big QB upgrade from Josh Rosen to Kyler Murray. The offense will also play at a faster pace, potentially boosting his targets. Multiple reports from OTAs say the same thing--Kirk has been the best receiver in practice, and that’s saying a lot with Larry Fitzgerald still on the roster.
|Andy Isabella||Hakeem Butler||Chad Williams||Trent Sherfield||Kevin White||Damiere Byrd||Pharoh Cooper||KeeSean Johnson||A.J. Richardson|
|TE||Ricky Seals-Jones||Charles Clay||Maxx Williams||Darrell Daniels||Caleb Wilson|
|QB||Matt Ryan||Matt Schaub|
|RB||Devonta Freeman||Ito Smith||Qadree Ollison||Kenjon Barner||Brian Hill||Ricky Ortiz|
|WR||Julio Jones||Calvin Ridley|
As a rookie, Ridley finished as the No. 19 receiver in half-PPR formats behind a strong 64-821-10 line on 90 targets. He admitted to being worn out on Sundays due to the way he practices--he only knows one speed--and that may have resulted in a bit of a fade down the stretch. He fared very well as a rookie in Matt Harmon’s #ReceptionPerception charting, and should see an uptick in targets with Mohamed Sanu taking more of a backseat in Ridley’s second season.
|Mohamed Sanu||Justin Hardy||Russell Gage||Marcus Green|
He’s a bit on the boring side, but Austin Hooper finished No. 6 last year and has increased his targets, receptions and yards in each of the last two seasons. He’s a good bet to garner five-plus targets in a pretty good passing attack in any given week.
|Luke Stocker||Logan Paulsen||Eric Saubert|
Jackson averaged 18.7 PPG in his eight starts. The Ravens hired ground-game aficionado Greg Roman to coordinate the offense so it’s crystal clear that the team will continue to emphasize the run with Jackson at quarterback. He will continue to rack up points with his legs, it’s doubtful that Roman will be able to maximize Jackson’s ability as a passer. Jackson should be a high-floor fantasy quarterback in 2019.
|Robert Griffin III||Trace McSorley|
Ingram is 29 years old, has dual threat ability and has averaged 4.6+ yards per carry in each of the last four seasons. The Ravens are likely to lead the NFL in all rushing categories, so Ingram should post RB2 numbers with RB1 upside if his touches are consistent.
|Gus Edwards||Kenneth Dixon||Justice Hill||De'Lance Turner||Tyler Ervin||Patrick Ricard|
|WR||Marquise Brown||Miles Boykin||Willie Snead||Chris Moore||Jordan Lasley||Jaleel Scott||Michael Floyd||Seth Roberts||Quincy Adeboyejo||Antoine Wesley||Jaylen Smith|
|TE||Mark Andrews||Hayden Hurst||Nick Boyle|
After a No. 2 finish in 2017, Newton was on pace for a No. 6 finish before his shoulder injury sidelined him for the final two games. It remains to be seen how he'll recover, but as the 12th quarterback off the board in early drafts, there's definitely some upside here.
|Will Grier||Taylor Heinicke||Kyle Allen|
|RB||Christian McCaffrey||Cameron Artis-Payne||Jordan Scarlett||Elijah Hood||Elijah Holyfield||Alexander Armah|
|WR||D.J. Moore||Curtis Samuel|
Samuel started getting regular work in Week 11. In his final seven games, he averaged 3.9 catches for 53 yards and 0.43 touchdowns, which equates to a 62-846-7 pace over a 16-game season. He basically matched the production of D.J. Moore in that span. We’re expecting low-end WR3 numbers from Samuel in 2019.
|Jarius Wright||Chris Hogan||Torrey Smith||Aldrick Robinson||Mose Frazier||Rashad Ross||Terry Godwin|
|TE||Greg Olsen||Ian Thomas||Chris Manhertz||Jason Vander Laan||Temarrick Hemingway|
Trubisky’s production was all over the place in 2018. He started the season with three sub-14.5-point games before his six-touchdown outburst in Week 4 that started a streak of four consecutive games with 21.9 points or more. Then, he scored 12.1 points or less in five of his final seven games.
|RB||Tarik Cohen||David Montgomery||Mike Davis||Taquan Mizzell||Kerrith Whyte||Ryan Nall|
|WR||Allen Robinson||Anthony Miller||Taylor Gabriel||Cordarrelle Patterson||Javon Wims||Marvin Hall||Riley Ridley||Emanuel Hall||Tanner Gentry|
Burton finished as the No. 8 tight end last season, but was on pace to finish No. 6 in the 14 games where Mitch Trubisky was active. Burton played at a 57-618-7 pace in those games. He’s still only 27 and this will be his second season in Matt Nagy’s system, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he took a step forward, production-wise.
|Adam Shaheen||Ben Braunecker||Dax Raymond|
|K||Eddy Pineiro||Elliott Fry|
|QB||Andy Dalton||Jeff Driskel||Ryan Finley|
From a workload standpoint, Mixon is one of the few obvious bellcow backs in the league. In 14 games last season, he averaged 20.0 touches for 104.5 yards and 0.64 touchdowns per game, giving him the No. 9 per game average in half-PPR formats. He’s a rock-solid pick at the end of the first round in 2019 fantasy drafts.
|Giovani Bernard||Trayveon Williams||Quinton Flowers||Rodney Anderson||Darrin Hall|
|WR||A.J. Green||Tyler Boyd|
Boyd broke out last year, and he did it with A.J. Green on the field. In nine games with a relatively healthy Green, he averaged 6.1 receptions for 80 yards and 0.56 touchdowns per game. Those are low-end WR1 numbers. He’s a nice value in the sixth round.
|John Ross||Cody Core||Alex Erickson||Auden Tate||Josh Malone||Stanley Morgan||Hunter Sharp|
|TE||Tyler Eifert||C.J. Uzomah||Drew Sample||Matt Lengel||Mason Schreck||Jordan Franks||Cethan Carter|
Mayfield’s splits with Freddie Kitchens calling the plays are very encouraging for 2019, now that Kitchens has been promoted to head coach. Mayfield averaged 19.0 PPG from Week 9 on, after Kitchens took over. He had the No. 10 per game average in that span, and the Browns added Odell Beckham, so consider Mayfield a midrange QB1.
|Drew Stanton||Garrett Gilbert||David Blough|
In the final 10 games of last season, Chubb averaged 19.5 touches for 97 yards and 0.80 touchdowns. That works out to 15.5 points per game (half-PPR formats) which would have been good enough for the No. 10 per game average at his position. Chubb would be a no-brainer first round pick if not for the arrival of Kareem Hunt, who could be a headache once he returns from his eight-game suspension in Week 10. Owners who draft Chubb should expect excellent production for the first half of the season but need to be prepared for his numbers to take a hit down the stretch.
|Duke Johnson||Kareem Hunt||Dontrell Hilliard||D'Ernest Johnson|
|WR||Odell Beckham||Jarvis Landry||Antonio Callaway||Rashard Higgins||Damion Ratley||Derrick Willies|
Njoku should be primed for a breakout, but his splits with Freddie Kitchens calling the plays weren’t pretty. He averaged 3.1-43-0.25 on 4.6 targets with Kitchens as the OC and 4.4-42-0.29 on 7.4 targets prior to Kitchens’ promotion. The overall production was about the same, but the drop in targets is concerning. Add a bona fide No. 1 option in Odell Beckham to the mix, and targets are going to be tough to come by.
|Demetrius Harris||Seth DeValve||Orson Charles||Pharaoh Brown|
|K||Greg Joseph||Austin Seibert|
Prescott was shaping up as a great value heading into 2018, but then Jason Witten retired and the Cowboys cut Dez Bryant. Predictably, Prescott struggled before the team’s trade for Amari Cooper—he was the No. 24 quarterback through Week 8. However, with Cooper from Week 9 on, he was the No. 6 quarterback with a 19.1 PPG average. Including the team’s two playoff games, he averaged 19.9 PPG in 11 games with Cooper, playing at a 4305-yard, 32-total-TD pace when prorated to 16 games.
|Cooper Rush||Mike White|
|RB||Ezekiel Elliott||Tony Pollard||Darius Jackson||Mike Weber||Jamize Olawale|
It was unclear how Cooper would fare after a midseason trade to the Cowboys, but the team got him very involved immediately and he responded with top tier production. In 11 games with Dallas, he averaged 6.0 catches for 81.5 yards and 0.64 touchdowns (a 96-1304-10.2 pace) on 8.5 targets per game. He should be treated as a bona fide fantasy WR1 heading into the 2019 season.
|Michael Gallup||Randall Cobb||Allen Hurns||Tavon Austin||Noah Brown||Lance Lenoir||Cedrick Wilson||Reggie Davis||Jon'Vea Johnson||Jalen Guyton|
|TE||Jason Witten||Blake Jarwin||Dalton Schultz||Rico Gathers|
|QB||Matthew Stafford||Tom Savage||David Fales|
In his final eight games, Johnson racked up an average of 94 total yards (5.53 YPC) and 0.5 touchdowns on 16.1 touches per game. HC Matt Patricia is committed to the run, so Johnson should be heavily involved in 2019.
|C.J. Anderson||Theo Riddick||Zach Zenner||Ty Johnson||Mark Thompson||Nick Bawden|
|WR||Kenny Golladay||Marvin Jones|
Through Week 10 (before his knee injury), Jones was the No. 26 receiver, and that was mostly prior to the Golden Tate trade. Early drafters have pegged Kenny Golladay as the WR1 for the Lions, but there’s a decent chance that Jones lead this receiving corps in fantasy points. In 25 games over the past two seasons, Jones is averaging 3.9 catches for 64 yards and 0.56 touchdowns. The biggest threat to Jones’s production is probably head coach Matt Patricia’s insistence on establishing the run. Jones looks like a steal in the early eighth round.
|Danny Amendola||Andy Jones||Jermaine Kearse||Brandon Powell||Brandon Reilly||Tommylee Lewis||Travis Fulgham||Deontez Alexander|
|TE||T.J. Hockenson||Jesse James||Isaac Nauta|
|QB||Aaron Rodgers||DeShone Kizer||Tim Boyle|
Jones led the Packers’ backfield for a long stretch before spraining his MCL. Through his first two seasons, in the 12 games where he has garnered at least 10 carries, Jones has averaged 95 total yards and 1.0 touchdown on 16.5 touches per game. He was also getting more involved as a receiver as the 2018 season wore on, catching 18 passes in his final five full games. That’s a 58-catch full-season pace, and he showed major improvement in pass protection as well. He has earned the right to be in the driver’s seat to be Green Bay’s RB1 in 2019, though HC Matt LaFleur indicated that he would like to utilize a committee of Jones and Jamaal Williams.
|Jamaal Williams||Dexter Williams||Tra Carson||Dan Vitale|
|WR||Davante Adams||Marquez Valdes-Scantling||Geronimo Allison|
Allison started the season strong, posting receiving lines of 5-69-1 (8 targets), 6-64 (6), 2-76-1 (4) and 6-80 (11) in the first four games. That put him on a 76-catch, 1156-yard, eight-touchdown pace over a full season. He was on pace to see 116 targets so he was very much the team's WR2 before a groin/core muscle injury derailed his breakout campaign. However, it appears that Marquez Valdes-Scantling is running as the team’s WR2 in two-WR sets, so Allison looks to be slated for duties in the slot.
|Jake Kumerow||Equanimeous St. Brown||JMon Moore||Trevor Davis||Jawill Davis||Darrius Shepherd|
|TE||Jimmy Graham||Jace Sternberger||Marcedes Lewis||Robert Tonyan|
|K||Mason Crosby||Sam Ficken|
|QB||Deshaun Watson||AJ McCarron||Joe Webb|
The entire Houston offense benefits when Deshaun Watson is healthy, and that includes Miller. In 21 games with Watson in the lineup, Miller has turned 17.8 touches into 83.6 yards and 0.47 touchdowns. Had he scored at that rate last season for 16 games, he would have finished as the No. 14 running back in half-PPR formats. The Texans let Alfred Blue walk, so Miller’s primary competition for touches is D’Onta Foreman, who is coming off an Achilles tear. Foreman has reportedly looked good in spring practices, which is probably why Miller is still available in the fifth or sixth round of fantasy drafts. The Athletic’s Aaron Reiss, who covers the Texans, said recently, “Lamar Miller will remain the team’s lead back.” Miller is a good target for owners who go WR-heavy early in the draft or are looking for a third RB in the sixth round.
|Donta Foreman||Josh Ferguson||Buddy Howell||Karan Higdon||Damarea Crockett||Cullen Gillaspia||Taiwan Jones|
|WR||DeAndre Hopkins||Will Fuller|
Fuller has averaged 4.1 catches for 71 yards and 1.0 touchdowns—which are high-end fantasy WR1 numbers—in 11 games with DeShaun Watson, but he has missed 15 games over the past two seasons. If he can stay healthy, he should return great value on his current seventh round ADP, though his injury history is obviously a big concern.
|Keke Coutee||DeAndre Carter||Vyncint Smith||Isaac Whitney||Jester Weah||Steven Mitchell||Johnnie Dixon||Tyron Johnson|
|TE||Jordan Thomas||Jordan Akins||Darren Fells||Kahale Warring||Jerell Adams|
|QB||Andrew Luck||Jacoby Brissett||Chad Kelly|
Mack struggled with an injury in training camp, but once he got going, he really got going. He had five games where he ran for at least 119 yards and a touchdown and saw at least 10 carries in all but two games. He was not as involved in the passing game (1.4 receptions per game), but he averaged a total of 87 yards and 0.79 touchdowns per game in 14 games, including the postseason.
|Nyheim Hines||Jordan Wilkins||Spencer Ware||Jonathan Williams|
Hilton finished as the No. 14 WR despite missing two games, and would have finished in the top 10 had he played a full season. He barely practiced once he suffered an ankle injury in Week 15, but still managed to catch 23 passes for 429 yards and a touchdown in his final five games, including the postseason. Since 2016, he has averaged 5.7 catches for 92 yards and 0.41 touchdowns in 29 games with Andrew Luck under center. His targets may get pinched a bit given the weapons that the Colts added this offseason.
Funchess turns 25 this summer and is coming off of a disappointing season. He caught just 44 passes for 549 yards and four touchdowns after posting a 63-840-8 receiving line in his third-year breakout season. His role in the Carolina offense decreased as the year went on—the Panthers instead gave work to rookie D.J. Moore and the dynamic Curtis Samuel in the back half of the season. Even Jarius Wright was seeing more snaps. It was time for a change of scenery and, football-wise, Indianapolis is about as good as it gets for Funchess. The Colts struggled to find a steady No. 2 target in the receiving corps, so they utilized TE Eric Ebron in that role. Funchess will compete with rookie Parris Campbell for No. 2 WR duties. Given the presence of Ebron (110 targets), Jack Doyle (5.5 targets per game) and Nyheim Hines (81 targets), Funchess is not a shoo-in for 100+ targets, but he should see plenty of playing time and provide Andrew Luck with another big target in the red zone. Another eight-touchdown season is within reach.
|Parris Campbell||Chester Rogers||Zach Pascal||Deon Cain||Marcus Johnson||Daurice Fountain||Steve Ishmael||Jordan Veasy||Krishawn Hogan||Ashton Dulin||Penny Hart|
|TE||Eric Ebron||Jack Doyle|
Doyle is coming off of offseason hip surgery, so we’ll be monitoring his health closely this summer. In 2018, only eight tight ends had a higher per game average than Doyle, though the presence of Eric Ebron obviously caps Doyle’s upside, as long as Ebron is healthy. Still, Doyle is a good value as the 16th tight end off the board in early drafts, and would have top five upside if anything were to happen to Ebron.
|Mo Alie-Cox||Ross Travis||Gabe Holmes|
In his last 12 full games for the Eagles, Foles has averaged 20.3 PPG, throwing for an average of 271 yards, 1.75 touchdowns and 0.83 interceptions per game. He should be a streaming option in Jacksonville.
|Alex McGough||Gardner Minshew|
Injuries have been Fournette’s bugaboo, but he has 11+ carries in 23 of 24 games played (including the postseason) and has averaged 2.7 catches per game in that span. His career 3.65 YPC is pretty ugly, but his 0.83 touchdowns per game more than makes up for it.
|Alfred Blue||Benny Cunningham||Ryquell Armstead||Tommy Bohanon|
|WR||Dede Westbrook||Chris Conley||Marqise Lee||D.J. Chark||Keelan Cole||Rashad Greene||Jaydon Mickens||Terrelle Pryor||Dredrick Snelson|
|TE||Geoff Swaim||Josh Oliver||James O'Shaughnessy||Ben Koyack|
|QB||Patrick Mahomes||Chad Henne||Chase Litton||Kyle Shurmur|
Williams took over for Kareem Hunt in mid-December and definitely looked the part. He averaged 19.4 touches for 114 yards and 1.6 touchdowns in five games (23.4 PPG in half-PPR formats), including the postseason. He averaged 5.60 YPC in that span and showed dual-threat ability, playing well enough to earn a two-year extension from the Chiefs.
|Carlos Hyde||Darwin Thompson||Darrel Williams||James Williams||Anthony Sherman||Josh Caldwell|
|WR||Tyreek Hill||Sammy Watkins|
Prior to Watkins’ injury, he was producing at a low-WR2 pace, so that would be his expectation if Tyreek Hill returns to the team and Watkins is able to stay healthy. If Hill doesn’t play and Watkins plays 14+ games—a big if—he’s a real threat for WR1 numbers in one of the most potent offenses in the league.
|Mecole Hardman||Demarcus Robinson||Gehrig Dieter||Marcus Kemp||Byron Pringle||Cody Thompson||Jamal Custis|
|TE||Travis Kelce||Blake Bell||Deon Yelder||Neal Sterling|
|QB||Philip Rivers||Tyrod Taylor||Easton Stick||Cardale Jones|
|RB||Melvin Gordon||Austin Ekeler||Justin Jackson||Detrez Newsome||Troymaine Pope||Derek Watt|
|WR||Keenan Allen||Mike Williams|
Williams finished his second season with 43-664-10, which made him the No. 24 fantasy receiver in half-PPR formats thanks in large part to the 10 touchdowns. He managed that production on just 4.1 targets per game, and his usage is bound to rise with the departure of Tyrell Williams, who posted 41-653-5 on 4.0 targets per game. Even if Williams’ FP/T regresses to the average of both players, and he sees half of Tyrell’s targets, he’s looking at a fantasy finish in the teens.
|Travis Benjamin||Artavis Scott||Dylan Cantrell||Geremy Davis|
An early-offseason ACL tear delayed Henry’s breakout at least one year. The good news is that he returned to practice late last year, so he should be fully healthy for all offseason activities. His career per game average immediately places him in the top 10, and his production in three games without Antonio Gates is higher than all but Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, George Kittle and Eric Ebron last season. Three games is an extremely small sample, so another way to ballpark Henry’s projection is to apply his career fantasy points per target (half-PPR = 1.90) to an expected number of targets. A not-in-his-prime Antonio Gates saw 6.9 targets per game from 2014-16, so if Henry maintains his per-target production with that sort of usage, he’s looking at 13.1 PPG, which is basically what Kittle averaged last year. Henry should be the fourth tight end off the board this summer.
|Virgil Green||Sean Culkin||Vince Mayle|
Goff should benefit from the return of a healthy Cooper Kupp. In 23 games with Kupp over the past two seasons, Goff averaged 279 yards and 2.0 touchdowns per game. In eight games with Kupp last season (and Brandin Cooks joining the receiving corps), Goff averaged 330 yards and 2.1 touchdowns per game.
|Blake Bortles||Brandon Allen|
Gurley played 14 games last season before having a setback with his knee. He averaged 22.5 touches for 130.8 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game, which resulted in 24.0 points per game in half-PPR formats, far and away the highest average at his position. Unfortunately, he tweaked his knee in Week 15, sat out the last two games of the regular season, and produced mixed results in the team’s three postseason games. He had 18 touches for 118 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys, five touches for 13 yards and a score against the Saints, and then 11 touches for 34 yards against the Patriots in the Super Bowl. C.J. Anderson out-touched Gurley 46 to 34 in the three playoff games. The Rams chose not to re-sign Anderson, which is a vote of confidence for Gurley and his knee, but they did trade up to get Darrell Henderson in the draft. HC Sean McVay reportedly thought that Henderson was the most dangerous offensive player in the draft. Gurley’s workload will be scaled back, the question is how much. He’s also likely to miss a game or two even if he remains fairly healthy. At this point, he’s worth the risk near the 2/3 turn in 12-team drafts, though risk-averse owners may want to look elsewhere.
HC Sean McVay reportedly thought that Henderson was the most dangerous offensive player in the draft. When I studied “Trade Up” running backs this offseason, I found that since 2008, when teams traded up for a back in the third round, they produced 54.1% more fantasy points than their “No Trade Up” counterparts. So history is certainly working in Henderson’s favor. GM Les Snead said that Henderson brings that “[Alvin] Kamara element” to the team, so it seems clear that he’s going to be involved as a rookie. If Todd Gurley misses time, Henderson will probably split work with Malcolm Brown. Like Kamara, Henderson should hold more value in full-PPR formats.
|Malcolm Brown||John Kelly||Justin Davis|
|WR||Brandin Cooks||Robert Woods||Cooper Kupp|
In the seven games where Kupp played at least half the snaps, he averaged 5.7 catches for 81 yards and 0.86 touchdowns on 7.9 targets. That’s a 91-1294-13.7 pace. Fantasy-wise, that’s about what Adam Thielen scored as last year’s No. 7 receiver. Since entering the league, he has played at a high-end WR2 pace.
|Josh Reynolds||KhaDarel Hodge||JoJo Natson||Mike Thomas|
|TE||Gerald Everett||Tyler Higbee||Johnny Mundt|
|QB||Josh Rosen||Ryan Fitzpatrick||Jake Rudock|
Despite the feeling that the fantasy community views his 2018 campaign as a failure, Drake finished the season as the No. 17 back in half-PPR formats. He hasn’t been a consistent producer thus far in his career, but that was mainly due to his irregular usage under former HC Adam Gase. There’s a new regime in town and the team let Frank Gore walk, vacating 156 carries in the backfield. Kalen Ballage looms, but I think Drake is better and he has proven that he can produce when given a good workload. In 12 games where he received at least nine carries in the last two seasons, he has averaged 17.8 touches for 96 total yards and 0.50 touchdowns per game (on 4.66 yards per carry). If he scores at that rate, he’ll likely finish in the top 10 at his position. He’s a fine value in the late fourth/early fifth of fantasy drafts.
|Kalen Ballage||Kenneth Farrow||Mark Walton||Chandler Cox||Myles Gaskin||Tre Watson|
|WR||Kenny Stills||Albert Wilson||DeVante Parker||Brice Butler||Jakeem Grant||Isaiah Ford||Ricardo Louis||Preston Williams||Reece Horn|
|TE||Mike Gesicki||Dwayne Allen||Clive Walford||Nick O'Leary||Durham Smythe|
Despite a good per game average and two great receiving options, Cousins’ value is depressed thanks to Minnesota’s run-heavy attack late in the season under Kevin Stefanski. The team’s pace slowed by 6.4 plays per game and had an almost-even run/pass split in three games under Stefanski. As a result, Cousins’ per game production dropped to 15.8 PPG in that span. This doesn’t bode well for 2019.
|Sean Mannion||Kyle Sloter|
In 15 games over the last two seasons, Cook has averaged 17.2 touches for 90.9 total yards and 0.40 touchdowns per game. That equates to 13.2 points per game in half-PPR formats. Had he played 16 games at that pace, he would have finished as the No. 12 running back in 2018. One thing really working in Cook’s favor is the Vikings’ decision to promote Kevin Stefanski from interim OC to full-time OC. In four games under Stefanski last year, Cook averaged 18.0 touches for 103.5 yards and 0.75 touchdowns per game. The resulting 16.5 points per game is more than what Joe Mixon scored as the No. 9 running back last year. The big question is -- can he stay healthy?
|Mike Boone||Alexander Mattison||Roc Thomas||Ameer Abdullah||C.J. Ham|
|WR||Stefon Diggs||Adam Thielen||Jordan Taylor||Laquon Treadwell||Chad Beebe||Brandon Zylstra||Olabisi Johnson||Dillon Mitchell||Jeff Badet|
|TE||Kyle Rudolph||Irv Smith Jr.||David Morgan||Tyler Conklin||Cole Hikutini|
|QB||Tom Brady||Brian Hoyer||Danny Etling||Jarrett Stidham|
|RB||Sony Michel||James White||Rex Burkhead||Damien Harris||James Develin||Brandon Bolden||Nick Brossette|
In 13 games (including the playoffs), Edelman played at a 102-catch, 1232-yard, 7.4-touchdown pace. Rob Gronkowski has retired, which will leave Edelman as the primary weapon in the passing game, if he isn’t already. In the 11 games since 2016 with Gronkowski sidelined, Edelman has averaged 6.9 catches for 84 yards and 0.27 touchdowns per game. Those are solid WR1 numbers in PPR and half-PPR formats, yet Edelman is going off the board as a midrange WR2.
|N'Keal Harry||Phillip Dorsett||Demaryius Thomas||Dontrelle Inman||Josh Gordon||Braxton Berrios||Maurice Harris||Matt Slater||Damoun Patterson||Jakobi Meyers|
|TE||Ben Watson||Matt LaCosse||Ryan Izzo||Stephen Anderson||Andrew Beck|
|QB||Drew Brees||Teddy Bridgewater||Taysom Hill||J.T. Barrett|
|RB||Alvin Kamara||Latavius Murray|
Mark Ingram averaged 13.3 touches per game last season and 18.0 touches per game the year before, so the role he’s vacating is sizable. Alvin Kamara will be the clear leader in backfield touches, but if Murray sees Ingram’s 2018 rushing workload (11.5 per game) at his career 4.1 YPC, he’s looking at around 48 yards per game just as a runner. Throw in a half touchdown per game and half of Ingram’s receiving production and Murray could post a low-end fantasy RB2 season, and he’d have RB1 upside if anything were to happen to Kamara.
|Javorius Allen||Devine Ozigbo||Dwayne Washington||Michael Burton||Zach Line|
|WR||Michael Thomas||Ted Ginn|
Ginn has played at a 56-797-5 (16-game) pace in his last 20 games. Those are low-end WR3 numbers. He’ll have to fend off Tre’Quan Smith for starter’s snaps opposite Michael Thomas.
|TreQuan Smith||Keith Kirkwood||Cameron Meredith||Austin Carr||Rishard Matthews||Travin Dural||Simmie Cobbs||Lil'Jordan Humphrey||Emmanuel Butler||Cyril Grayson|
|TE||Jared Cook||Josh Hill||Dan Arnold||Alize Mack||Garrett Griffin|
|QB||Eli Manning||Daniel Jones||Kyle Lauletta||Alex Tanney|
|RB||Saquon Barkley||Wayne Gallman||Paul Perkins||Rod Smith||Elijhaa Penny||Jon Hilliman|
The Giants are not a terrible landing spot for Tate. The quarterback situation could be (a lot) better, but there are a boatload of targets available after the Odell Beckham trade. Tate had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2016 and 2017 and was on pace for 1,182 yards through seven games with the Lions in 2018 before being traded to the Eagles. It's unlikely that he'll be a 90-catch/1,000-yard player in the Giants' run-heavy offense, but he could catch between 70-80 balls for 800-900 yards if things go well in New York. This signing is not good news for Sterling Shepard or Evan Engram since Tate is capable of soaking up a lot of targets.
|Sterling Shepard||Corey Coleman||Cody Latimer||Bennie Fowler||Russell Shepard||Brittan Golden||Alonzo Russell||Darius Slayton||Reggie White Jr.|
There is reason to be optimistic about Engram’s upside in 2019. Odell Beckham has been traded away, and Engram has played at a 76-945-6.0 pace in the 15 games over the last two seasons when Beckham has been sidelined. That pace jumps to 82-1043-5.8 when the four games that Sterling Shepard missed are excluded. (In other words, he was more efficient with Shepard in the lineup than without him, which bodes well for 2019.) The wild card is Golden Tate, who has been a target hog at times in his career. There is also the matter of the substandard targets of Eli Manning, who is well past his prime. Most signs point to a career year for Engram, but between Tate and Manning, there are a few different reasons why he may fail to live up to expectations.
|Rhett Ellison||Scott Simonson||C.J. Conrad|
|QB||Sam Darnold||Trevor Siemian||Davis Webb||Luke Falk|
|RB||LeVeon Bell||Elijah McGuire||Ty Montgomery||Trenton Cannon||DeAngelo Henderson|
Coming off of 63 catches for 941 yards and seven scores in his second season (and a No. 16 finish in half-PPR leagues), Anderson had a big Week 5 in 2018 (3-123-2 against the Broncos), but was otherwise disappointing through Week 13. Then, something strange happened: Anderson and Sam Darnold started to click. In consecutive games, Anderson posted receiving lines of 4-76-1, 7-96-1 and 9-140-1, averaging 9.8 targets per game in his last four. It helped that Quincy Enunwa was out, and there are market share concerns heading into 2019—the Jets signed Jamison Crowder and Le’Veon Bell—but it certainly helps that Anderson seems to have a fan in new HC Adam Gase, who raved earlier this year about Anderson’s speed and how smoothly he tracks the ball downfield.
|Jamison Crowder||Quincy Enunwa||Josh Bellamy||Deontay Burnett||Deonte Thompson||Charone Peake||Quadree Henderson||Tim White||Greg Dortch|
As a rookie, Herndon finished No. 12 in points per snap in both standard and PPR formats. He only played about 63% of the snaps as a rookie, but if his playing time increases to 80% and he maintains his point per snap efficiency, then he's likely to finish in the top 10. He's currently a nice value in the 10th round of early best ball drafts.
|Eric Tomlinson||Daniel Brown||Trevon Wesco|
The arrival of a bona fide elite WR1 (Antonio Brown) is great for Carr, but is it enough to turn him into a QB1? His career was certainly trending that way after a No. 14 finish in his second season (2015) and a No. 13 finish in (2016). Since then, he has posted back-to-back disappointing finishes (No. 22 and No. 18) in the last two seasons, and there were serious questions about whether Jon Gruden was committed to Carr as his franchise quarterback. It appears now that Gruden will move forward with Carr. Brown’s presence in Pittsburgh served to raise Ben Roethlisberger’s FP/Att by 10.2%, so if Brown sees a similar target share and posts similar per-target production in Oakland, then Carr’s per-attempt production should rise by about the same amount. Assuming the same volume as last year, that sort of rise would have made Carr the No. 15 QB instead of the No. 18 QB in 2018, so a QB1-type season is within reach if Carr exceeds expectations and/or Gruden cranks up his volume. The Raiders also added Tyrell Williams and cut Jordy Nelson.
|Nathan Peterman||Mike Glennon|
Jacobs should see a big workload in his rookie season. Oakland has roughly 18.2 touches per game vacated by Marshawn Lynch and Doug Martin, though the team did re-sign Martin after Isaiah Crowell’s injury. (This is probably a net gain for Jacobs since Crowell is better than Martin at this point.) From 1998-2007, Jon Gruden’s lead backs averaged 266.1 touches on an average of 14.7 games played. That works out to 18.1 touches per game for Gruden’s top back, so assuming Jacobs can keep Jalen Richard at bay on passing downs, he should see 250-280 touches. Moreover, the Oakland offensive line blocked pretty well in the running game last season, finishing No. 13 in Adjusted Line Yards at Football Outsiders. Of this year’s running back draft class, Jacobs easily fared the best in Kevin Zatloukal’s model that predicts a back’s chances of success in his first three seasons.
|Jalen Richard||Doug Martin||DeAndre Washington||Chris Warren||Keith Smith|
|WR||Antonio Brown||Tyrell Williams||Ryan Grant||Marcell Ateman||J.J. Nelson||Saeed Blacknall||Keon Hatcher||Dwayne Harris||Hunter Renfrow||Keelan Doss|
|TE||Darren Waller||Luke Willson||Foster Moreau||Derek Carrier||Erik Swoope|
Since the beginning of the 2017 season, Wentz has averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game, which is solid QB1 production. His 2018 production is considered a disappointment, but if we ignore his three-interception debacle in New Orleans, he averaged 19.0 fantasy points in his other 10 games, which is about what Philip Rivers scored as 2018's No. 13 fantasy quarterback. He had the third-highest per game average through 13 games in 2017, so he has proven top five upside.
|Nate Sudfeld||Clayton Thorson||Cody Kessler|
|RB||Miles Sanders||Jordan Howard||Wendell Smallwood||Corey Clement||Josh Adams||Donnel Pumphrey||Boston Scott|
|WR||Alshon Jeffery||DeSean Jackson||Nelson Agholor||JJ Arcega-Whiteside||Mack Hollins||Shelton Gibson||Charles Johnson||Braxton Miller||Carlton Agudosi||Marken Michel|
|TE||Zach Ertz||Dallas Goedert||Richard Rodgers||Joshua Perkins||Will Tye|
|QB||Ben Roethlisberger||Joshua Dobbs||Mason Rudolph|
In 13 games as the lead back last season, Conner turned 20.8 touches into 113.1 yards and 1.0 touchdown per game, resulting in the No. 8 per game average in half-PPR formats. The only question heading into 2019 is his workload. There have been rumblings that the Steelers plan to spread the ball around to their other backs, namely Jaylen Samuels (who is a very good receiver) and rookie Benny Snell, who may spell Conner on early downs. Conner is still deserving of a pick in the late first round, but his workload is not a given.
|Jaylen Samuels||Benny Snell Jr.||Trey Edmunds||Ralph Webb||Roosevelt Nix|
|WR||JuJu Smith-Schuster||James Washington|
The former second-rounder was highly productive in college, racking up 145 catches for 2929 yards and 23 touchdowns in his final two seasons at Oklahoma State. He won the Fred Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s top receiver in 2017 and was a favorite of #ReceptionPerception creator Matt Harmon as he evaluated last year’s draft class. After a strong preseason—catching seven passes for 158 yards and two touchdowns—Washington had a quiet rookie year, catching just 16 balls for 217 yards and a touchdown on 30 targets, but there wasn’t much room for Washington in the offense with Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster gobbling up 166+ targets apiece. Even though he was playing fifth fiddle in the passing game, Washington still played 55% of the snaps and had two of his best games late in the season, posting 3-65 on four targets against the Patriots in Week 15 and 3-64 on three targets in Week 17 with Brown sidelined. As a receiver who is very likely to see 100+ targets from Ben Roethlisberger in a potent offense, Washington is definitely in the WR3 mix this summer and has the upside to finish in the top 20.
|Donte Moncrief||Diontae Johnson||Ryan Switzer||Eli Rogers||Johnny Holton|
McDonald is capable of expanding his role in the Pittsburgh passing offense. He caught a solid 50 balls (on 73 targets) for 610 yards and four touchdowns, and he even missed Week 1. He finished as the No. 10 tight end in PPR formats and should see a significant increase in playing time now that Jesse James is out of the way. McDonald played on 55% of the snaps last season while James played 50%, so unless the Steelers decide to directly replace James with another player, McDonald’s playing time should surpass 70%. If he stays healthy and plays starter’s snaps, he’ll finish in the top 10 and has upside from there.
|Xavier Grimble||Zach Gentry|
|K||Chris Boswell||Matt McCrane||Matthew Wright|
|QB||Jimmy Garoppolo||Nick Mullens||C.J. Beathard|
Coleman turns 26 in April, and although his 2018 season is viewed as a disappointment, he still gained 1,076 total yards and scored nine times on 199 touches, including 4.8 yards per carry. Over the past three seasons, Coleman has shown RB1 upside when he receives 10+ carries, though he’s joining a crowded backfield that also features Jerick McKinnon and Matt Breida.
|Jerick McKinnon||Matt Breida||Raheem Mostert||Jeff Wilson||Matthew Dayes||Kyle Juszczyk|
The rookie played at a 64-989-11 pace (on a 99-target pace) over his final six games. He should be a full-time starter and enjoy a QB upgrade in his second season. He’s an intriguing breakout candidate typically available in the seventh round.
Samuel posted 62-882-11 in his senior season at South Carolina. He missed most of his junior season, but had an impressive 59-783-1 (adding 98 yards and six touchdowns on the ground) as a sophomore. Two beat writers have projected that Samuel would start as the 49ers’ “Z” receiver, making him a starter opposite Dante Pettis. George Kittle is likely going to lead this team in targets, but Samuel could be a good value in the later rounds, especially in PPR formats. Kendrick Bourne posted 30 catches for 361 yards (on 45 targets) in eight starts last year. Samuel finished as the seventh-best prospect in Kevin Zatloukal’s WR Success Model.
|Marquise Goodwin||Kendrick Bourne||Jalen Hurd||Jordan Matthews||Max McCaffrey||Richie James||Trent Taylor|
|TE||George Kittle||Garrett Celek||Ross Dwelley||Kaden Smith||Levine Toilolo|
|K||Robbie Gould||Jon Brown|
Winston’s value has spiked since the arrival of new head coach Bruce Arians, who appears to be very committed to the former Heisman winner. In the 20 games over the past two seasons in which Winston attempted at least 25 passes—a way of filtering out a few of those games where Winston either did not start or was benched during the game—he has averaged 19.4 PPG. In 11 such games in 2018, he averaged 20.0 PPG. Those are top eight numbers. Arians’ history with Carson Palmer—20.8 PPG playing for Arians in 38 games from 2015-17—makes this look like a great pairing. If he’s going in the double-digit rounds, he’ll be a fantastic late-round quarterback option. Arians should be able to get the most out of Winston, especially with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard in the fold.
|Blaine Gabbert||Ryan Griffin|
|RB||Ronald Jones||Peyton Barber||Andre Ellington||Bruce Anderson|
|WR||Mike Evans||Chris Godwin|
Godwin finished strong in 2017, posting 3-98 on six targets against the Panthers in Week 16 and 7-111-1 on 12 targets against the Saints in Week 17. In the five games as a rookie where he played at least 50% of the snaps, he averaged 4.2 catches for 73 yards and 0.20 touchdowns on 7.2 targets per game. In 2018, he finished the season as the No. 25 receiver despite the fact that he played more than 70% of the snaps in just six games, five of which came with DeSean Jackson mostly sidelined from Week 13 to Week 17. Godwin is expected to start, play some slot, and “is going to be close to a 100-catch guy,” per new HC Bruce Arians. Everything is lining up for a breakout season in 2019.
|Justin Watson||Breshad Perriman||Bobo Wilson||Scott Miller||Anthony Johnson||DaMarkus Lodge|
Bruce Arians has a reputation for underutilizing the tight end position in the passing game, so the usage of Howard in 2019 is a bit of an unknown. Arians actually won’t be calling plays—new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich will have that duty—but Arians will surely have a heavy hand in designing the offense. Keep in mind that Arians hasn’t had a tight end of Howard’s caliber in his 14 years as an offensive coordinator or head coach. His most productive tight end was Heath Miller, who averaged 3.6 catches for 41 yards and 0.27 touchdowns in 74 games under Arians, though Miller’s best season (76-789-6) would certainly be a good season for Howard, who was in the midst of a breakout season when he injured his foot and ankle in Week 11. He was the No. 6 fantasy tight end at that point. Given Arians’ history, Howard is a bit of a risk/reward pick in the middle rounds, but it’s usually smart to bet on talent, and Howard has it.
|Cameron Brate||Antony Auclair||Jordan Leggett|
|K||Cairo Santos||Matt Gay|
|QB||Marcus Mariota||Ryan Tannehill|
Henry finished with 1,059 rushing yards, but 55% of that total came in the team’s last four games. He was hitting a few waiver wires before that outburst. His value is going to depend mainly on his workload. Are the Titans committed to getting him going even if he struggles early in games? He’s a risky pick in the third round.
|Dion Lewis||David Fluellen||Dalyn Dawkins||Jeremy McNichols||Alex Barnes||Ryan Hewitt|
|WR||Corey Davis||A.J. Brown||Adam Humphries||Taywan Taylor||Tajae Sharpe||Darius Jennings||Cameron Batson||Kalif Raymond||Cody Hollister||Jalen Tolliver||Anthony Ratliff-Williams|
|TE||Delanie Walker||Jonnu Smith||Anthony Firkser||MyCole Pruitt||Cole Wick|
|QB||Dwayne Haskins||Case Keenum||Josh Johnson||Mark Sanchez|
Peterson’s ADP will be dependent on the status of Derrius Guice, who is expected to be the running back of the future in Washington. The only problem is that Guice’s balky knee has required three additional surgeries due to infection. Washington signed Peterson to a two-year deal, but only $1.5 million is guaranteed, so they can move on if necessary. For now, we see Peterson continuing to lead this backfield in touches.
|Chris Thompson||Derrius Guice||Byron Marshall||Samaje Perine||Bryce Love|
|WR||Josh Doctson||Paul Richardson||Trey Quinn||Terry McLaurin||Brian Quick||Jehu Chesson||Cam Sims||Darvin Kidsy||Kelvin Harmon|
|TE||Jordan Reed||Vernon Davis||Jeremy Sprinkle||Donald Parham|