Fantasy Football Depth Charts

The touches (308) were there for Johnson in 2018, but his efficiency was down across the board. Most of the blame can be directed as the offense as a whole, but things should be a lot better this season with the arrival of Air Raid guru Kliff Kingsbury, dual-threat quarterback Kyler Murray and an improved receiving corps. This should put Johnson in a better position to succeed. Murray’s arrival should especially help. During the rookie seasons of Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson, their teams saw an increase of 18% in rushing attempts, an increase of 48% in rushing yards, an increase of 151% in rushing touchdowns and an increase of 26% in team yards per carry. Johnson’s ADP should be solidly in the first round.

He’s a bit on the boring side, but Austin Hooper finished No. 6 last year and has increased his targets, receptions and yards in each of the last two seasons. He’s a good bet to garner five-plus targets in a pretty good passing attack in any given week.

Ingram is 29 years old, has dual threat ability and has averaged 4.6+ yards per carry in each of the last four seasons. The Ravens are likely to lead the NFL in all rushing categories, so Ingram should post RB2 numbers with RB1 upside if his touches are consistent.

Burton finished as the No. 8 tight end last season, but was on pace to finish No. 6 in the 14 games where Mitch Trubisky was active. Burton played at a 57-618-7 pace in those games. He’s still only 27 and this will be his second season in Matt Nagy’s system, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he took a step forward, production-wise.

From a workload standpoint, Mixon is one of the few obvious bellcow backs in the league. In 14 games last season, he averaged 20.0 touches for 104.5 yards and 0.64 touchdowns per game, giving him the No. 9 per game average in half-PPR formats. He’s a rock-solid pick at the end of the first round in 2019 fantasy drafts.

In the final 10 games of last season, Chubb averaged 19.5 touches for 97 yards and 0.80 touchdowns. That works out to 15.5 points per game (half-PPR formats) which would have been good enough for the No. 10 per game average at his position. Chubb would be a no-brainer first round pick if not for the arrival of Kareem Hunt, who could be a headache once he returns from his eight-game suspension in Week 10. Owners who draft Chubb should expect excellent production for the first half of the season but need to be prepared for his numbers to take a hit down the stretch.

Njoku should be primed for a breakout, but his splits with Freddie Kitchens calling the plays weren’t pretty. He averaged 3.1-43-0.25 on 4.6 targets with Kitchens as the OC and 4.4-42-0.29 on 7.4 targets prior to Kitchens’ promotion. The overall production was about the same, but the drop in targets is concerning. Add a bona fide No. 1 option in Odell Beckham to the mix, and targets are going to be tough to come by.

In his final eight games, Johnson racked up an average of 94 total yards (5.53 YPC) and 0.5 touchdowns on 16.1 touches per game. HC Matt Patricia is committed to the run, so Johnson should be heavily involved in 2019.

Jones led the Packers’ backfield for a long stretch before spraining his MCL. Through his first two seasons, in the 12 games where he has garnered at least 10 carries, Jones has averaged 95 total yards and 1.0 touchdown on 16.5 touches per game. He was also getting more involved as a receiver as the 2018 season wore on, catching 18 passes in his final five full games. That’s a 58-catch full-season pace, and he showed major improvement in pass protection as well. He has earned the right to be in the driver’s seat to be Green Bay’s RB1 in 2019, though HC Matt LaFleur indicated that he would like to utilize a committee of Jones and Jamaal Williams.

The entire Houston offense benefits when Deshaun Watson is healthy, and that includes Miller. In 21 games with Watson in the lineup, Miller has turned 17.8 touches into 83.6 yards and 0.47 touchdowns. Had he scored at that rate last season for 16 games, he would have finished as the No. 14 running back in half-PPR formats. The Texans let Alfred Blue walk, so Miller’s primary competition for touches is D’Onta Foreman, who is coming off an Achilles tear. Foreman has reportedly looked good in spring practices, which is probably why Miller is still available in the fifth or sixth round of fantasy drafts. The Athletic’s Aaron Reiss, who covers the Texans, said recently, “Lamar Miller will remain the team’s lead back.” Miller is a good target for owners who go WR-heavy early in the draft or are looking for a third RB in the sixth round.

Mack struggled with an injury in training camp, but once he got going, he really got going. He had five games where he ran for at least 119 yards and a touchdown and saw at least 10 carries in all but two games. He was not as involved in the passing game (1.4 receptions per game), but he averaged a total of 87 yards and 0.79 touchdowns per game in 14 games, including the postseason.

Doyle is coming off of offseason hip surgery, so we’ll be monitoring his health closely this summer. In 2018, only eight tight ends had a higher per game average than Doyle, though the presence of Eric Ebron obviously caps Doyle’s upside, as long as Ebron is healthy. Still, Doyle is a good value as the 16th tight end off the board in early drafts, and would have top five upside if anything were to happen to Ebron.

Injuries have been Fournette’s bugaboo, but he has 11+ carries in 23 of 24 games played (including the postseason) and has averaged 2.7 catches per game in that span. His career 3.65 YPC is pretty ugly, but his 0.83 touchdowns per game more than makes up for it.

Williams took over for Kareem Hunt in mid-December and definitely looked the part. He averaged 19.4 touches for 114 yards and 1.6 touchdowns in five games (23.4 PPG in half-PPR formats), including the postseason. He averaged 5.60 YPC in that span and showed dual-threat ability, playing well enough to earn a two-year extension from the Chiefs.

An early-offseason ACL tear delayed Henry’s breakout at least one year. The good news is that he returned to practice late last year, so he should be fully healthy for all offseason activities. His career per game average immediately places him in the top 10, and his production in three games without Antonio Gates is higher than all but Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, George Kittle and Eric Ebron last season. Three games is an extremely small sample, so another way to ballpark Henry’s projection is to apply his career fantasy points per target (half-PPR = 1.90) to an expected number of targets. A not-in-his-prime Antonio Gates saw 6.9 targets per game from 2014-16, so if Henry maintains his per-target production with that sort of usage, he’s looking at 13.1 PPG, which is basically what Kittle averaged last year. Henry should be the fourth tight end off the board this summer.

Gurley played 14 games last season before having a setback with his knee. He averaged 22.5 touches for 130.8 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game, which resulted in 24.0 points per game in half-PPR formats, far and away the highest average at his position. Unfortunately, he tweaked his knee in Week 15, sat out the last two games of the regular season, and produced mixed results in the team’s three postseason games. He had 18 touches for 118 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys, five touches for 13 yards and a score against the Saints, and then 11 touches for 34 yards against the Patriots in the Super Bowl. C.J. Anderson out-touched Gurley 46 to 34 in the three playoff games. The Rams chose not to re-sign Anderson, which is a vote of confidence for Gurley and his knee, but they did trade up to get Darrell Henderson in the draft. HC Sean McVay reportedly thought that Henderson was the most dangerous offensive player in the draft. Gurley’s workload will be scaled back, the question is how much. He’s also likely to miss a game or two even if he remains fairly healthy. At this point, he’s worth the risk near the 2/3 turn in 12-team drafts, though risk-averse owners may want to look elsewhere.

HC Sean McVay reportedly thought that Henderson was the most dangerous offensive player in the draft. When I studied “Trade Up” running backs this offseason, I found that since 2008, when teams traded up for a back in the third round, they produced 54.1% more fantasy points than their “No Trade Up” counterparts. So history is certainly working in Henderson’s favor. GM Les Snead said that Henderson brings that “[Alvin] Kamara element” to the team, so it seems clear that he’s going to be involved as a rookie. If Todd Gurley misses time, Henderson will probably split work with Malcolm Brown. Like Kamara, Henderson should hold more value in full-PPR formats.

Despite the feeling that the fantasy community views his 2018 campaign as a failure, Drake finished the season as the No. 17 back in half-PPR formats. He hasn’t been a consistent producer thus far in his career, but that was mainly due to his irregular usage under former HC Adam Gase. There’s a new regime in town and the team let Frank Gore walk, vacating 156 carries in the backfield. Kalen Ballage looms, but I think Drake is better and he has proven that he can produce when given a good workload. In 12 games where he received at least nine carries in the last two seasons, he has averaged 17.8 touches for 96 total yards and 0.50 touchdowns per game (on 4.66 yards per carry). If he scores at that rate, he’ll likely finish in the top 10 at his position. He’s a fine value in the late fourth/early fifth of fantasy drafts.

In 15 games over the last two seasons, Cook has averaged 17.2 touches for 90.9 total yards and 0.40 touchdowns per game. That equates to 13.2 points per game in half-PPR formats. Had he played 16 games at that pace, he would have finished as the No. 12 running back in 2018. One thing really working in Cook’s favor is the Vikings’ decision to promote Kevin Stefanski from interim OC to full-time OC. In four games under Stefanski last year, Cook averaged 18.0 touches for 103.5 yards and 0.75 touchdowns per game. The resulting 16.5 points per game is more than what Joe Mixon scored as the No. 9 running back last year. The big question is -- can he stay healthy?

Mark Ingram averaged 13.3 touches per game last season and 18.0 touches per game the year before, so the role he’s vacating is sizable. Alvin Kamara will be the clear leader in backfield touches, but if Murray sees Ingram’s 2018 rushing workload (11.5 per game) at his career 4.1 YPC, he’s looking at around 48 yards per game just as a runner. Throw in a half touchdown per game and half of Ingram’s receiving production and Murray could post a low-end fantasy RB2 season, and he’d have RB1 upside if anything were to happen to Kamara.

There is reason to be optimistic about Engram’s upside in 2019. Odell Beckham has been traded away, and Engram has played at a 76-945-6.0 pace in the 15 games over the last two seasons when Beckham has been sidelined. That pace jumps to 82-1043-5.8 when the four games that Sterling Shepard missed are excluded. (In other words, he was more efficient with Shepard in the lineup than without him, which bodes well for 2019.) The wild card is Golden Tate, who has been a target hog at times in his career. There is also the matter of the substandard targets of Eli Manning, who is well past his prime. Most signs point to a career year for Engram, but between Tate and Manning, there are a few different reasons why he may fail to live up to expectations.

As a rookie, Herndon finished No. 12 in points per snap in both standard and PPR formats. He only played about 63% of the snaps as a rookie, but if his playing time increases to 80% and he maintains his point per snap efficiency, then he's likely to finish in the top 10. He's currently a nice value in the 10th round of early best ball drafts.

Jacobs should see a big workload in his rookie season. Oakland has roughly 18.2 touches per game vacated by Marshawn Lynch and Doug Martin, though the team did re-sign Martin after Isaiah Crowell’s injury. (This is probably a net gain for Jacobs since Crowell is better than Martin at this point.) From 1998-2007, Jon Gruden’s lead backs averaged 266.1 touches on an average of 14.7 games played. That works out to 18.1 touches per game for Gruden’s top back, so assuming Jacobs can keep Jalen Richard at bay on passing downs, he should see 250-280 touches. Moreover, the Oakland offensive line blocked pretty well in the running game last season, finishing No. 13 in Adjusted Line Yards at Football Outsiders. Of this year’s running back draft class, Jacobs easily fared the best in Kevin Zatloukal’s model that predicts a back’s chances of success in his first three seasons.

In 13 games as the lead back last season, Conner turned 20.8 touches into 113.1 yards and 1.0 touchdown per game, resulting in the No. 8 per game average in half-PPR formats. The only question heading into 2019 is his workload. There have been rumblings that the Steelers plan to spread the ball around to their other backs, namely Jaylen Samuels (who is a very good receiver) and rookie Benny Snell, who may spell Conner on early downs. Conner is still deserving of a pick in the late first round, but his workload is not a given.

McDonald is capable of expanding his role in the Pittsburgh passing offense. He caught a solid 50 balls (on 73 targets) for 610 yards and four touchdowns, and he even missed Week 1. He finished as the No. 10 tight end in PPR formats and should see a significant increase in playing time now that Jesse James is out of the way. McDonald played on 55% of the snaps last season while James played 50%, so unless the Steelers decide to directly replace James with another player, McDonald’s playing time should surpass 70%. If he stays healthy and plays starter’s snaps, he’ll finish in the top 10 and has upside from there.

Coleman turns 26 in April, and although his 2018 season is viewed as a disappointment, he still gained 1,076 total yards and scored nine times on 199 touches, including 4.8 yards per carry. Over the past three seasons, Coleman has shown RB1 upside when he receives 10+ carries, though he’s joining a crowded backfield that also features Jerick McKinnon and Matt Breida.

Bruce Arians has a reputation for underutilizing the tight end position in the passing game, so the usage of Howard in 2019 is a bit of an unknown. Arians actually won’t be calling plays—new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich will have that duty—but Arians will surely have a heavy hand in designing the offense. Keep in mind that Arians hasn’t had a tight end of Howard’s caliber in his 14 years as an offensive coordinator or head coach. His most productive tight end was Heath Miller, who averaged 3.6 catches for 41 yards and 0.27 touchdowns in 74 games under Arians, though Miller’s best season (76-789-6) would certainly be a good season for Howard, who was in the midst of a breakout season when he injured his foot and ankle in Week 11. He was the No. 6 fantasy tight end at that point. Given Arians’ history, Howard is a bit of a risk/reward pick in the middle rounds, but it’s usually smart to bet on talent, and Howard has it.

Henry finished with 1,059 rushing yards, but 55% of that total came in the team’s last four games. He was hitting a few waiver wires before that outburst. His value is going to depend mainly on his workload. Are the Titans committed to getting him going even if he struggles early in games? He’s a risky pick in the third round.

Peterson’s ADP will be dependent on the status of Derrius Guice, who is expected to be the running back of the future in Washington. The only problem is that Guice’s balky knee has required three additional surgeries due to infection. Washington signed Peterson to a two-year deal, but only $1.5 million is guaranteed, so they can move on if necessary. For now, we see Peterson continuing to lead this backfield in touches.