Fantasy Football Depth Charts

Murray should start immediately in Arizona, so the playing time will be there. He'll have Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk and a couple of good rookie prospects (Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler) to throw to, so the receiving corps isn't bad either. I use a regression model to generate a starting point for rookie quarterbacks and Murray comes in with the highest projected touchdown percentage, the highest projected yards per attempt, the third-highest projected rushing yards per game and the fourth-highest projected rushing touchdowns in the 42-player sample. His passing numbers (in the same system at Oklahoma) were eerily similar to Baker Mayfield's and Murray is a much better runner. Keep this fact in mind—since 2011, the four top scoring rookie quarterbacks were Cam Newton (706 rushing yards, 14 touchdowns), Robert Griffin III (815 yards, 7 touchdowns), Dak Prescott (282 yards, 6 touchdowns) and Russell Wilson (489 yards, 4 touchdowns), so being able to run will really help Murray’s chances to find fantasy success as a rookie. If the offensive line improves, Murray will have a shot at QB1 numbers.

Fitzgerald’s ADP is laughable. Arizona’s pass attempts dropped by 17.2% from 2017 to 2018 and he still finished as the No. 26 receiver in PPR formats. In all likelihood, he’s getting a massive quarterback upgrade, and the offense should be much more pass-friendly under new head coach Kliff Kingsbury. Normally, it's understandable to write off a soon-to-be 36-year-old receiver, but Jerry Rice had three 1,100-yard seasons after the age of 36, and Fitzgerald is capable of following in Rice’s footsteps. He’s a steal in the eighth or ninth round.

Kirk was on pace for a 57-787-4 season in 12 games played before a broken foot knocked him out for the remainder of the season. Those numbers would have made him a low-end WR3, which is where he’s currently being drafted. He’s now fully healthy, and is likely to see a big QB upgrade from Josh Rosen to Kyler Murray. The offense will also play at a faster pace, potentially boosting his targets. Multiple reports from OTAs say the same thing--Kirk has been the best receiver in practice, and that’s saying a lot with Larry Fitzgerald still on the roster.

Isabella has freakish athletic ability and was wildly productive at UMass. He fared very well in Kevin Zatloukal’s Rookie WR Success Model thanks to his production, athleticism and the draft capital that the Cardinals used to get him. However, it appears that he’s running as the WR4 behind Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk and standout rookie KeeSean Johnson, so he has some work to do to get enough playing time to be a fantasy starter.

Johnson is outplaying the other Arizona rookie receivers and has apparently won the WR3 job behind Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk. Per Scott Bordow of The Athletic, GM Steve Keim said that Johnson has “looked fantastic” and could “break out as a rookie.” HC Kliff Kingsbury said that Johnson is a “smooth route runner” who has “picked up the system really, really quickly.” Johnson caught 95 passes for 1,340 yards and eight scores at Fresno State, but posted a disappointing 40-yard dash (4.60). He fell to the sixth round and the Cardinals were elated to get him. He’s still flying way under the radar, but all it takes is one good preseason game and his ADP will rise from the 18th to the 12th/13th.

Since 2012, Ryan has finished in the top seven in even years and No. 14 or worse in odd years. Not much has changed in Atlanta since last season, where Ryan finished as the No. 2 quarterback, so he should have another good season. For whatever reason, it’s been a while since Ryan has been able to post two good fantasy seasons in back-to-back years, though he does have the third-highest fantasy points per pass attempt over the last three seasons.

Over the past two seasons, Jones has averaged 6.3 catches for 98 yards and 0.34 touchdowns. The knock on him is that he doesn’t catch enough touchdowns, and over the last three seasons he has averaged 0.37 touchdowns when he should have scored 0.97 per game according to Kevin Zatloukal’s expected touchdowns (xTD) model. He’s still a solid first round receiver and is capable of posting a No. 1 overall season if he figures out how to find the endzone more consistently.

As a rookie, Ridley finished as the No. 19 receiver in half-PPR formats behind a strong 64-821-10 line on 90 targets. He admitted to being worn out on Sundays due to the way he practices--he only knows one speed--and that may have resulted in a bit of a fade down the stretch. He fared very well as a rookie in Matt Harmon’s #ReceptionPerception charting, and should see an uptick in targets with Mohamed Sanu taking more of a backseat in Ridley’s second season.

Jackson averaged 18.7 PPG in his eight starts, throwing for 159 yards and 0.7 touchdowns while adding 80 yards and 0.57 touchdowns as a runner. The Ravens hired ground-game aficionado Greg Roman to coordinate the offense so it’s crystal clear that the team will continue to emphasize the run with Jackson at quarterback. He will continue to rack up points with his legs, but it’s doubtful that Roman will be able to maximize Jackson’s ability as a passer. Jackson should be a high-floor fantasy quarterback in 2019.

In the 10 games that Allen started and finished, he averaged 192 passing yards, 1.0 passing touchdowns, 1.2 interceptions and a 6.65 YPA. That’s pretty dreadful, but he’s on the fantasy radar as a QB2 heading into 2019 thanks to some incredible rushing numbers. He averaged 8.1 carries for 58.5 yards and 0.80 rushing touchdowns, effectively adding 10.7 fantasy points per game to his bottom line. His 19.5 fantasy points per game in those 10 games would have been good enough for a QB6 finish over a full, 16-game season. That’s a super optimistic extrapolation because teams are going to adjust to limit his running production, and the Bills added John Brown, Cole Beasley and Tyler Kroft to give Allen more weapons to throw to. Since this is not something he’s particularly good at, it may limit his fantasy upside. Still, given those rushing numbers, he’s an intriguing late round pick, especially in best ball formats where owners don’t have to worry about when they should actually start him.

The Bills’ offense is something of a mess, but Brown is ranked where he is because he’s a quality receiver. He had a great sophomore season, posting a 65-1003-7 line for the Cardinals before injuries (and a strange sickle cell issue) set him back. He found a new home in Baltimore, and was on pace for a 61-1,068-7.0 season (midrange WR2 numbers) through nine games, before Lamar Jackson took over as quarterback. Josh Allen’s deep ball accuracy on passes 20+ yards downfield was better than Joe Flacco’s last year, and Allen attempted 59 such passes, the 12th-most in the league, despite only playing in 12 games as a rookie. In other words, Brown’s speed and skillset is a good match for where Allen wants to throw the ball. (Data from Sports Info Solutions.)

After a No. 2 finish in 2017, Newton was on pace for a No. 6 finish before his shoulder injury sidelined him for the final two games. It remains to be seen how he'll recover, but as the 12th quarterback off the board in early drafts, there's definitely some upside here.

Moore began his rookie season playing about 25% to 50% of the snaps, but once the Panthers gave him starter snaps (70%+), his production spiked to 4.2-60-.10 or 9.7 PPG in half-PPR scoring, which are low-end fantasy WR2 numbers. Since 2000, Moore was the 13th rookie receiver who posted at least 700 receiving yards at 21-years-old. The other 12 receivers saw an average per game increase of 30% in targets, a 33% increase in receptions, a 28% increase in yards and a 19% increase in touchdowns. When these increases are applied to Moore’s rookie numbers, he’s looking at a 73-catch, 1004-yard, 2.4-touchdown season as a sophomore. That’s about what he averaged in the final 10 games from a fantasy points standpoint, so he probably has some room to grow from there, especially if his touchdowns regress positively to the mean for someone getting his sort of usage. If he’s able to score 7-8 touchdowns and keep up that production, he’s looking at a midrange WR2 season.

Samuel started getting regular work in Week 11. In his final seven games, he averaged 3.9 catches for 53 yards and 0.43 touchdowns, which equates to a 62-846-7 pace over a 16-game season. He basically matched the production of D.J. Moore in that span. We’re expecting low-end WR3 numbers from Samuel in 2019.

Trubisky’s production was all over the place in 2018. He started the season with three sub-14.5-point games before his six-touchdown outburst in Week 4 that started a streak of four consecutive games with 21.9 points or more. Then, he scored 12.1 points or less in five of his final seven games.

In his first post-ACL season with a new team, Robinson caught 55 passes for 754 yards and four touchdowns, giving him the No. 34 per game average at his position in half-PPR formats. However, when we include the 10-143-1 that he posted in the Bears’ only playoff game, his average jumps to the No. 31 spot at his position. Now that he’s nearly two years removed from the ACL tear and is playing in his second season in Matt Nagy’s system, his numbers should improve. He has been dominating in camp per multiple reports. Remember, Robinson once posted an 80-1400-14 season catching passes from Blake Bortles.

As a rookie, Miller averaged 2.2 catches (on 3.6 targets) for 29 yards and 0.46 touchdowns. Given his measurables, he has solid speed with good burst and agility, and fared well as a route runner in Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception charting. He also came in second in Kevin Zatloukal’s Rookie WR Success Model, which predicts success in a player’s first three seasons. He faded down the stretch as his playing time waned. He played 64% of the snaps through Week 11, and just 46% of the snaps in his final six games. In those first 11 games, he played at a 2.9-40-0.56 clip, which are low-end WR3 numbers. He’s coming off of offseason shoulder surgery, so he may get off to a slow start, but since he’s being drafted as a fantasy WR5, owners can afford to be patient. If Matt Nagy’s offense takes off in its second season, Miller should be one of the primary beneficiaries.

In 27 games over the last two seasons with a healthy A.J. Green, Dalton has averaged 226 yards and 1.75 pass TD per game. The resulting 14.6 fantasy points per game would equate to solid QB2 numbers over a full 16-game season. With Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon and Tyler Eifert back, Dalton has plenty of weapons to throw to. He should be streamable in 2019.

Over the past two seasons, Green has averaged 4.8 catches for 71 yards and 0.56 touchdowns, which is a 77-1136-9.0 pace. He’s still a WR1 when healthy, but he has played more than 10 games in just one of his last three seasons. He said that his toe will be a full go for training camp, and was able to participate in spring practices. He looks like a nice value in the third or fourth round.

Boyd broke out last year, and he did it with A.J. Green on the field. In nine games with a relatively healthy Green, he averaged 6.1 receptions for 80 yards and 0.56 touchdowns per game. Those are low-end WR1 numbers. He’s a nice value in the sixth round.

Mayfield’s splits with Freddie Kitchens calling the plays are very encouraging for 2019, now that Kitchens has been promoted to head coach. Mayfield averaged 19.0 PPG from Week 9 on, after Kitchens took over. He had the No. 10 per game average in that span, and the Browns added Odell Beckham, so consider Mayfield a midrange QB1.

Beckham is obviously a fantastic talent. Since entering the league, he has averaged 6.6 receptions for 93 yards and 0.75 touchdowns. That’s a 106-catch, 1,488-yard, 12-touchdown pace, which would have been good enough to be the No. 1 receiver in 2017 and the No. 3 receiver in 2018. He’s changing teams, which is usually a bad sign, but in this case it’s a net positive since instead of a declining Eli Manning throwing him the ball, he’ll have an up-and-coming Baker Mayfield sending passes his way. The only caveat with Beckham is that he may miss a few games. He has missed 21 of a possible 80 games (26%) in the last five seasons, which is the same than Michael Thomas (2%), Davante Adams (8%), Julio Jones (4%), DeAndre Hopkins (1%), JuJu Smith-Schuster (6%) and Antonio Brown (5%) *combined* in the same span.

It’s going to be tough for Landry to meet his historical production in 2019. The first red flag is that Landry’s usage fell off a cliff in the eight games after Freddie Kitchens took over as the offensive coordinator. (Kitchens is now the head coach.) Under Kitchens, Landry turned 6.9 targets into 4.0 catches, 56 yards and 0.25 touchdowns. That’s a fantasy WR3 pace, though he’s being drafted as a high-end WR3. The other issue is that Odell Beckham is now on the team, and he’s likely to soak up 9-10 targets per game at a minimum. So unless this offense explodes and the fantasy pie gets a lot bigger, Landry owners might be frustrated with his week-to-week production. Optimistic owners can point to his usage over the last four seasons--he has had a minimum of 131 targets in that span--and hope that Kitchens finds ways to get him more involved than he was in the back half of 2018. There’s also an argument that Landry will be able to do more with fewer targets since the defense will be geared to stop Beckham. If that happens, Landry will have a chance for a fantasy WR2 season.

In his third season, Higgins turned 53 targets into 39 catches for 572 yards and four touchdowns. It appears that he has a stranglehold on the Browns' WR3 job, posting 5-98-1 on six targets in the Browns' first preseason game while playing ahead of Antonio Callaway. Last year, on 43 targets from Baker Mayfield, Higgins had 33 catches for 487 yards and four touchdowns. If he can maintain that sort of per target production on, say, 60 targets as the Browns' third receiver, he could turn in a fantasy WR4 season. He'd have upside from there if anything were to happen to Odell Beckham or Jarvis Landry.

Prescott was shaping up as a great value heading into 2018, but then Jason Witten retired and the Cowboys cut Dez Bryant. Predictably, Prescott struggled before the team’s trade for Amari Cooper—he was the No. 24 quarterback through Week 8. However, with Cooper from Week 9 on, he was the No. 6 quarterback with a 19.1 PPG average. Including the team’s two playoff games, he averaged 19.9 PPG in 11 games with Cooper, playing at a 4305-yard, 32-total-TD pace when prorated to 16 games.

It was unclear how Cooper would fare after a midseason trade to the Cowboys, but the team got him very involved immediately and he responded with top tier production. In 11 games with Dallas, he averaged 6.0 catches for 81.5 yards and 0.64 touchdowns (a 96-1304-10.2 pace) on 8.5 targets per game. He should be treated as a bona fide fantasy WR1 heading into the 2019 season.

Gallup’s production increased after the Amari Cooper trade, but it still left something to be desired. He averaged 2.6 catches for 35 yards and 0.11 touchdowns, though Kevin Zatloukal’s xTD statistic suggests that Gallup should have caught 0.72 touchdowns in that span, so Gallup was either unlucky and/or inefficient in his scoring opportunities. Gallup fared well in Zatloukal’s WR Success Model, coming in third behind D.J. Moore and Anthony Miller. With a year under his belt Gallup has a chance to take a step forward in his sophomore season.

He’s recovering from an Achilles injury, but he avoided the PUP list to start camp and was even participating in 11v11 drills in camp, which is a great sign for his potential availability for Week 1. Over the past two seasons he has played at a 78-949-4 pace, which are low-end WR2 numbers, but he was expected to score twice as many touchdowns in the opportunities he had, so he has upside from there. Considering he’s the 50th receiver off the board, there’s quite a bit of upside here.

Once Demaryius Thomas was traded, Sutton’s production increased to a 50-catch, 760-yard, four-touchdown pace, which was good enough to make him the No. 42 receiver from Week 9 to Week 17. We expect some growth in his efficiency, but with Emmanuel Sanders (Achilles) possibly back, and DaeSean Hamilton in the mix, it’s no sure thing that Sutton is a top two option in the Denver passing game. (Hamilton was the No. 25 receiver in the final four weeks of the season.)

Predicting Golladay’s 2019 production has been a little tricky. He spent the first half of the season with both Marvin Jones and Golden Tate in the lineup, and in those games, he was out-targeted by Jones 47 to 44. After Tate was traded, Golladay played one full game with a healthy Jones and posted 3-46 on four targets against the Vikings. (Jones posted 6-66 on eight targets in that game.) Jones was injured the following week against the Bears after posting 3-55 on seven targets in 62% of the snaps. That’s when Golladay blew up. He posted 6-78-1 on 13 targets in that game against the Bears and proceeded to average 9.5 targets per game over the final six games of the season. So which Golladay will owners get in 2019? The version that was the clear No. 1 option on his team or the one that was out-targeted by Jones through eight weeks?

Through Week 10 (before his knee injury), Jones was the No. 26 receiver, and that was mostly prior to the Golden Tate trade. Early drafters have pegged Kenny Golladay as the WR1 for the Lions, but there’s a decent chance that Jones lead this receiving corps in fantasy points. In 25 games over the past two seasons, Jones is averaging 3.9 catches for 64 yards and 0.56 touchdowns. The biggest threat to Jones’s production is probably head coach Matt Patricia’s insistence on establishing the run. Jones looks like a steal in the early eighth round.

Rodgers didn’t play up to his usual standards last year but still finished as the No. 6 fantasy quarterback. He gets a fresh start in a new offense as Matt LaFleur takes over as head coach. After averaged 2.27 touchdowns per game from 2014-17, his touchdown rate dropped to 1.56 per game last year (4.2% of his pass attempts, his lowest TD% since he took over as the starter in 2008). It’s likely that his touchdowns bounce back and he finishes in the top five. He has seven top two finishes in his career, so he’s certainly capable of outplaying his ADP.

In 22 games in the last two seasons with a healthy Aaron Rodgers, Adams has averaged 6.5 receptions for 81 yards and 0.86 touchdowns per game. Those numbers would have been good enough for a No. 1 positional finish in 2017 and a No. 6 finish last year. The only question mark with Adams heading into 2019 is the arrival of Matt LaFleur and a new offense. Adams should continue to be the centerpiece of the passing attack, but the offense may look to spread the ball around more than in recent years.

Heading into the offseason, Geronimo Allison seemed to be the most likely candidate to become the No. 2 option behind Davante Adams. Allison had a strong start to 2018 before his injury, but MVS reportedly looked great in spring practices. His quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, agrees, “I think [Marquez Valdes-Scantling] has had a fantastic spring and really stepped up as a guy who can be an every-down player.” The rookie had a great stretch from Week 5 to Week 10, where he posted fantasy lines of 7-68-1, 3-108, 2-45-1, 3-101 and 6-44, which works out to a 67-1,155-6.4 pace over a full 16-game season. He’s unlikely to produce at that level, but he showed he was capable of it for a five-game stretch as a rookie. His production in the eight games where he saw at least five targets (3.9-62-0.25 or 62-997-4 over a full season) is a more reasonable projection assuming he has a firm grasp on the team’s WR2 job. He’s an upside fantasy WR4.

Allison started the season strong, posting receiving lines of 5-69-1 (8 targets), 6-64 (6), 2-76-1 (4) and 6-80 (11) in the first four games. That put him on a 76-catch, 1156-yard, eight-touchdown pace over a full season. He was on pace to see 116 targets so he was very much the team's WR2 before a groin/core muscle injury derailed his breakout campaign. However, it appears that Marquez Valdes-Scantling is running as the team’s WR2 in two-WR sets, so Allison looks to be slated for duties in the slot.

Watson owned the No. 1 per game average as a rookie, but only played seven games. He followed that up with a No. 3 finish at his position. He’s a bit of an injury risk behind a shaky offensive line, but he’s one of the most productive quarterbacks in fantasy and has a potent receiving corps to throw to.

Hopkins has posted back-to-back finishes in the top two (in half-PPR formats) and is one of the safest receiver picks in the first round. One thing to note: His target share in the 10 games that Keke Coutee missed was significantly higher than the target share in the six games in which Coutee played (34.8% vs. 27.7%). This resulted in a PPG that was 13% lower when Coutee was on the field. With Coutee last year, he was more of a midrange WR1 than the No. 1 fantasy receiver in football.

Fuller has averaged 4.1 catches for 71 yards and 1.0 touchdowns—which are high-end fantasy WR1 numbers—in 11 games with DeShaun Watson, but he has missed 15 games over the past two seasons. If he can stay healthy, he should return great value on his current seventh round ADP, though his injury history is obviously a big concern.

Coutee only played six games, but averaged 4.7 catches (on 6.8 targets) for 48 yards and 0.17 touchdowns per game. He added 11-110-1 in the Texans’ lone playoff game, raising his per game average to 5.6-57-0.29 over a seven-game span. Deshaun Watson indicated that the team has to find ways to get Coutee the ball since he’s so dangerous with it. He could turn into a solid WR3 if he begins to see 7+ targets per game.

In the five seasons where Luck has played 15+ games, he has finished No. 8, No. 6, No. 1, No. 4 and No. 5 at his position. He has a great offensive line and the Colts added Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell to his arsenal of receiving weapons. He should have another great year.

Hilton finished as the No. 14 WR despite missing two games, and would have finished in the top 10 had he played a full season. He barely practiced once he suffered an ankle injury in Week 15, but still managed to catch 23 passes for 429 yards and a touchdown in his final five games, including the postseason. Since 2016, he has averaged 5.7 catches for 92 yards and 0.41 touchdowns in 29 games with Andrew Luck under center. His targets may get pinched a bit given the weapons that the Colts added this offseason.

Funchess turns 25 this summer and is coming off of a disappointing season. He caught just 44 passes for 549 yards and four touchdowns after posting a 63-840-8 receiving line in his third-year breakout season. His role in the Carolina offense decreased as the year went on—the Panthers instead gave work to rookie D.J. Moore and the dynamic Curtis Samuel in the back half of the season. Even Jarius Wright was seeing more snaps. It was time for a change of scenery and, football-wise, Indianapolis is about as good as it gets for Funchess. The Colts struggled to find a steady No. 2 target in the receiving corps, so they utilized TE Eric Ebron in that role. Funchess will compete with rookie Parris Campbell for No. 2 WR duties. Given the presence of Ebron (110 targets), Jack Doyle (5.5 targets per game) and Nyheim Hines (81 targets), Funchess is not a shoo-in for 100+ targets, but he should see plenty of playing time and provide Andrew Luck with another big target in the red zone. Another eight-touchdown season is within reach.

In his last 12 full games for the Eagles, Foles has averaged 20.3 PPG, throwing for an average of 271 yards, 1.75 touchdowns and 0.83 interceptions per game. He should be a streaming option in Jacksonville.

Westbrook has averaged 4.0-46-0.26 in 23 games through his first two seasons. T.J. Hernandez noted, “The addition of Nick Foles should give the Jaguars’ offense a giant boost, especially in the passing game. Foles likes to throw short and in the middle of the field, a strength that matches up perfectly with Westbrook’s game as Jacksonville’s primary slot man.” Beat writer Daniel Popper said that Westbrook “is most likely to put up eye-popping numbers.” Foles reportedly took a shine to Chris Conley, and Marqise Lee could push Westbrook for targets if he can get healthy, but Westbrook is the safest pick of the bunch.

If/when Marqise Lee returns, it could change the dynamic in Jacksonville, but at this point Chark has played well enough—especially in the red zone—to likely start alongside Dede Westbrook. Chark stands 6’3” and has game-breaking 4.34 speed and 93rd percentile burst, per Player Profiler. His offensive coordinator, John DeFilippo, said that Chark is “greatly improved from the spring” because he has been “more consistent.”

All Mahomes did in his first season as the starter was post the greatest fantasy season in the history of the league. Sure, he’s bound to regress some, but he has room to regress and still be the fantasy QB1 in 2019. Other than Mahomes, there have been 15 seasons since 2000 where a quarterback has averaged 8.5+ yards per attempt on a minimum of 300 attempts. Collectively, those quarterbacks averaged 8.87 YPA. In the following season, they averaged 7.69 YPA, a 13.4% drop. Every single quarterback experienced regression, though some were more drastic than others. Mahomes’ situation (surrounding talent, coaching staff) haven’t changed, so he has a good chance to post another great fantasy season. It just may not be historic.

Hill has had a tumultuous offseason to say the least. Word came down on 7/19 that the NFL won’t suspend him in 2019, so from a projections standpoint, it appears that he will play a full 16-game season, barring injury or rest, or if new information comes to light regarding the NFL’s investigation. This puts him back in the first round of fantasy drafts, though he carries more off-field risk than the other top-producing receivers.

Watkins had a couple of low-snap games (7%, 15%) that weighed down his per game averages. When those are removed, he averaged 4.9-64-0.38 on 6.6 targets per game in eight games, which are high-end fantasy WR2 numbers. Given that he has missed 18 of his last 64 games, there is some injury risk baked into his projection, but he has as much upside as anyone being drafted in his range.

A model of consistency, Rivers has thrown at least 28 touchdowns and posted at least 4,286 yards in six straight seasons. Rivers per game production has only cracked the top 15 once in the last four years but since he always plays a full season, he has three top 12 finishes in the same span. He has posted top 12 (QB1) numbers in 10 of the last 12 seasons. He does have a tendency to throw interceptions, but he has only thrown 22 total picks in the last two seasons, so he’s taking better care of the ball. He represents nice value as the 18th QB off the board.

Over the past two seasons, Allen has averaged 6.2 receptions (on 9.3 targets) for 81 yards and 0.38 touchdowns per game. That’s low-end WR1 production, which is where he’s being drafted. Expect more of the same out of Allen in 2019.

Williams finished his second season with 43-664-10, which made him the No. 24 fantasy receiver in half-PPR formats thanks in large part to the 10 touchdowns. He managed that production on just 4.1 targets per game, and his usage is bound to rise with the departure of Tyrell Williams, who posted 41-653-5 on 4.0 targets per game. Even if Williams’ FP/T regresses to the average of both players, and he sees half of Tyrell’s targets, he’s looking at a fantasy finish in the teens.

Goff should benefit from the return of a healthy Cooper Kupp. In 23 games with Kupp over the past two seasons, Goff averaged 279 yards and 2.0 touchdowns per game. In eight games with Kupp last season (and Brandin Cooks joining the receiving corps), Goff averaged 330 yards and 2.1 touchdowns per game. The resulting 21.1 fantasy points per game would have been the third-highest production behind only Patrick Mahomes and Matt Ryan last season. He offers next to nothing as a runner, but with Kupp back and HC Sean McVay calling the shots, I have full confidence in Goff in 2019.

In his last four seasons, Cooks has racked up at least 65 passes, 1,082 yards and five touchdowns. That production would be good enough for low-end WR2 numbers, and Cooks is currently the No. 17 receiver off the board, so he’s being drafted just above his floor. His three-year average would make him a high-end WR2, which is where he finished 2018, his first season with the Rams. If you’re worried about Cooper Kupp’s return--don’t. Cooks was actually significantly more productive (5.5-90-0.25 on 7.4 targets per game) in the eight games with Kupp in the lineup last year. Cooks is a safe pick in the 4th round this year.

Over the past two seasons, Woods has been a mainstay in the Rams’ offense, averaging 5.1 catches for 71 yards and 0.39 touchdowns per game. Last year, those numbers rose to 5.4-76-0.38 and he was actually more productive with Cooper Kupp in the lineup than without, so Kupp’s return shouldn’t convince drafters to shy away from Woods.

In the seven games where Kupp played at least half the snaps, he averaged 5.7 catches for 81 yards and 0.86 touchdowns on 7.9 targets. That’s a 91-1294-13.7 pace. Fantasy-wise, that’s about what Adam Thielen scored as last year’s No. 7 receiver. Since entering the league, he has played at a high-end WR2 pace.

Williams was a five-star recruit and the top-ranked receiver in the class of 2015 by Scout. He started at Tennessee and went undrafted after catching 96 passes for 1,345 yards and 14 touchdowns as a junior at Colorado State. He wasn't drafted due to off-field concerns--he was arrested on a misdemeanor assault charge for shoving his then-girlfriend as she was trying to move out--but has the physical profile of a Day 2 draft pick. He's reportedly lighting up Dolphins camp and has shown a good rapport with Miami's possible quarterback of the future, Josh Rosen. The Dolphins' receiving corps is headlined by Kenny Stills, Albert Wilson, DeVante Parker, so it wouldn't be too difficult for Williams to find himself in a starting role if he continues to impress.

Wilson was the No. 22 receiver through seven weeks, prior to a hip injury that ended his season. He avoided surgery and is ramping up his work in camp, although at press time he’s not yet a full go. Wilson is fully capable of soaking up targets in the slot and on underneath routes and he has plenty of speed (4.43) to get deep as well. He’s a great dart throw as a WR5 or WR6.

Despite a good per game average and two great receiving options, Cousins’ value is depressed thanks to Minnesota’s run-heavy attack late in the season under Kevin Stefanski. The team’s pace slowed by 6.4 plays per game and had an almost-even run/pass split in three games under Stefanski. As a result, Cousins’ per game production dropped to 15.8 PPG in that span. This doesn’t bode well for 2019.

Like his quarterback and fellow WR Adam Thielen, Diggs’ volume suffered under Kevin Stefanski once he was promoted to play-calling duties in Week 15. Diggs targets dropped from 10.4 per game for the first 12 weeks to 7.7 per game for the final three weeks. In fact, he averaged almost as many receptions for the first 13 weeks (7.3 per game) as he did targets in the final three. He did catch a touchdown in each game, but only averaged 35 yards under Stefanski.

Thielen’s drop in production late in the season is concerning. The Vikings fired Joe DeFilippo as offensive coordinator and promoted Kevin Stefanski to the position. The team’s pace slowed by 6.4 plays per game and had an almost-even run/pass split in three games under Stefanski. Thielen’s production dropped from 7.9-95-0.69 in his first 13 games to 3.3-46-0.0 in his last three games. His targets dropped from 11.0 to 4.0 per game. He’s too good to produce at those lower levels, but he’s no longer a no-brainer fantasy WR1 with Stefanski calling the plays.

Since 2016, Brady’s numbers have suffered with Gronk sidelined. Brady’s yardage (-5.4%), touchdowns (-12.9%), YPA (-8.6%) and fantasy production (-9.8%) have all suffered in the 11 games that Gronk was sidelined. Still, he averaged 272 yards in the five games that Gronk has missed over the last two years and his expected touchdowns (2.52) suggests that he left some points on the field in those games. The team will have a full offseason to prepare for life without Gronkowski, so they should have a plan in place to make Brady successful.

In 13 games (including the playoffs), Edelman played at a 102-catch, 1232-yard, 7.4-touchdown pace. Rob Gronkowski has retired, which will leave Edelman as the primary weapon in the passing game, if he isn’t already. In the 11 games since 2016 with Gronkowski sidelined, Edelman has averaged 6.9 catches for 84 yards and 0.27 touchdowns per game. Those are solid WR1 numbers in PPR and half-PPR formats, yet Edelman is going off the board as a midrange WR2.

The Patriots drafted Harry in the first round, signaling that they very much value his services as a replacement for Josh Gordon and/or Chris Hogan. Harry came in as Kevin Zatloukal’s No. 1 receiver in his Rookie Success Model, so the data supports success for Harry, at least within his first three years. He made a strong first impression at spring workouts, and should settle in as the No. 2/No. 3 target in the passing game after Julian Edelman (and perhaps James White).

After 11-straight finishes in the top six at his position from 2006 to 2016, Brees has finished No. 10 and No. 8 in the last two seasons, thanks in large part in a drop in volume as the Saints have gone more run-heavy offensively. From 2006 to 2016, the Saints averaged 641.5 pass attempts per season. Over the last two seasons, they have averaged 527.5 pass attempts. Brees’ increase in efficiency has offset some of this loss in volume, but he’s no longer a no-brainer QB1. However, he is still elite at home--he averaged 322 yards and 3.0 pass touchdowns in eight home games last season.

Thomas has averaged 7.2 receptions for 83 yards and 0.44 touchdowns over the past two seasons. Thomas’s situation hasn’t changed much since last season so he’s one of the safest receivers available in the first or second round.

Ginn has played at a 56-797-5 (16-game) pace in his last 20 games. Those are low-end WR3 numbers. He’ll have to fend off Tre’Quan Smith for starter’s snaps opposite Michael Thomas.

The Giants are not a terrible landing spot for Tate. The quarterback situation could be (a lot) better, but there are a boatload of targets available after the Odell Beckham trade. Tate had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2016 and 2017 and was on pace for 1,182 yards through seven games with the Lions in 2018 before being traded to the Eagles. It's unlikely that he'll be a 90-catch/1,000-yard player in the Giants' run-heavy offense, but he could catch between 70-80 balls for 800-900 yards if things break his way in New York. This signing is not good news for Sterling Shepard or Evan Engram since Tate is capable of soaking up a lot of targets.

The Giants gave Shepard $41 million after signing Golden Tate to a deal worth almost $38 million, so it looks like this will be a 1a/1b situation in terms of targets, and since Tate is typically a high-target player, he could out-target Shepard this season. Shepard’s production certainly increased when Odell Beckham was sidelined. In 11 games over the last three seasons without Beckham, Shepard averaged 5.3 catches for 68 yards and 0.18 touchdowns. Those are low-end WR2 numbers and he would have some upside from there if he simply posted his three-year touchdown rate of 0.33 per game. That would make him a solid fantasy WR2. The primary issue is Tate and how many of Beckham’s targets he’ll soak up. Beckham averaged 10.4 targets per game in the last three seasons while Tate averaged 7.5 T/G in his last two seasons with the Lions. Shepard averaged 6.3 T/G with Beckham in the lineup and 8.5 T/G without. With the Giants likely to go run-heavy, will Shepard get enough volume to post fantasy WR2 numbers? He has been a solid fantasy WR3 with Beckham in the lineup and that’s about where he’s being drafted right now. The other red flag is that Eli Manning’s production is tailing off.

Darnold struggled for most of his rookie season, scoring 14+ points in just one of his first eight games before getting injured in Week 9. When he came back, he had two 21+ point games in his last four. Rookie quarterbacks who have started a minimum of 12 games tend to fall into one of two categories. Either they average 17.0+ PPG or they average less than 14.0 PPG as rookies. The “good” rookie quarterbacks see their PPG decline by 6.0% in their second season, on average. The “bad” rookie quarterbacks see an average PPG increase of 26% in year two. Applying this increase to Darnold’s rookie year PPG (13.0) would yield 16.4 PPG, or solid QB2-type numbers.

Coming off of 63 catches for 941 yards and seven scores in his second season (and a No. 16 finish in half-PPR leagues), Anderson had a big Week 5 in 2018 (3-123-2 against the Broncos), but was otherwise disappointing through Week 13. Then, something strange happened: Anderson and Sam Darnold started to click. In consecutive games, Anderson posted receiving lines of 4-76-1, 7-96-1 and 9-140-1, averaging 9.8 targets per game in his last four. It helped that Quincy Enunwa was out, and there are market share concerns heading into 2019—the Jets signed Jamison Crowder and Le’Veon Bell—but it certainly helps that Anderson seems to have a fan in new HC Adam Gase, who raved earlier this year about Anderson’s speed and how smoothly he tracks the ball downfield.

The Jets gave Crowder $9.5 million per year in free agency, which shows intent. Adam Gase has had success with slot receivers in the past. Wes Welker had 73 catches when Gase was the OC in Denver in 2013. Jarvis Landry had 96 catches in 2016 and 112 catches in 2017 after Gase took over the team. A 33-year-old Danny Amendola led Miami in receptions (59) last year. Crowder has had fantasy success in the past, finishing No. 30 in 2016 and No. 37 in 2017, but he was not healthy in 2018. The other issue is that the Jets already have Robby Anderson and target-hog Quincy Enunwa, who has a similar skillset as Crowder.

The arrival of a bona fide elite WR1 (Antonio Brown) is great for Carr, but is it enough to turn him into a QB1? His career was certainly trending that way after a No. 14 finish in his second season (2015) and a No. 13 finish in (2016). Since then, he has posted back-to-back disappointing finishes (No. 22 and No. 18) in the last two seasons, and there were serious questions about whether Jon Gruden was committed to Carr as his franchise quarterback. It appears now that Gruden will move forward with Carr. Brown’s presence in Pittsburgh served to raise Ben Roethlisberger’s FP/Att by 10.2%, so if Brown sees a similar target share and posts similar per-target production in Oakland, then Carr’s per-attempt production should rise by about the same amount. Assuming the same volume as last year, that sort of rise would have made Carr the No. 15 QB instead of the No. 18 QB in 2018, so a QB1-type season is within reach if Carr exceeds expectations and/or Gruden cranks up his volume. The Raiders also added Tyrell Williams and cut Jordy Nelson.

Effectively, Derek Carr was almost as productive on a per attempt basis as Ben Roethlisberger was when he was throwing to any receiver not named Antonio Brown. This indicates that the drop off from Roethlisberger to Carr is not as severe as it appears on the surface, so despite the historical trend that free agent receivers tend to decline, Brown has a good chance to maintain his status as an elite fantasy receiver. He should easily soak up double-digit targets, though the fact that Jon Gruden wasn’t able to get much of anything out of Amari Cooper (before he blew up after a midseason trade to the Cowboys) is a bit worrisome.

Williams is a good player, but he was something of a forgotten man for the Chargers the last two seasons after catching 69 passes for 1,059 yards and seven touchdowns as a second-year player in 2016. Unfortunately, he didn’t crack 70 targets in either 2017 or 2018. The good news is that after Antonio Brown and Williams, there isn’t a whole lot of receiving talent on the roster. The team lost Jared Cook (101 targets), Jordy Nelson (88), Seth Roberts (64) and Amari Cooper (31) from last year’s team, so there’s room for Williams to get 90+ targets even if Brown sees a monster target share. Oakland signed him to a deal worth $11.1 million per season, which was the biggest per season signing at the position this year, and that certainly shows intent. As a 27-year-old with good size, speed and a history of production, Williams is an intriguing pick in the double-digit rounds.

Since the beginning of the 2017 season, Wentz has averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game, which is solid QB1 production. His 2018 production is considered a disappointment, but if we ignore his three-interception debacle in New Orleans, he averaged 19.0 fantasy points in his other 10 games, which is about what Philip Rivers scored as 2018's No. 13 fantasy quarterback. He had the third-highest per game average through 13 games in 2017, so he has proven top five upside.

Since 2017, Jeffery has played at a 70-886-9.1 pace in 23 games with Carson Wentz at quarterback. Those are midrange fantasy WR2 numbers, and what we would expect from Jeffery if not for the addition of DeSean Jackson. Jackson’s presence will likely help Jeffery’s efficiency (i.e. his targets will be better since the defense will have to account for Jackson), but Jeffery’s targets could get pinched. The Eagles have many mouths to feed including Jeffery, Jackson, Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert and Nelson Agholor. We’re expecting a midrange WR3 season in 2019.

D-Jax can still fly, and he can still be productive when he’s healthy enough to play. He has missed six games in his last two seasons, but when he was on the field last year, he played at a 3.4-65-0.33 clip on 6.3 targets per game. His speed is a good match for Carson Wentz’s deep ball, which was improved in 2018. He’s a better fit for best ball leagues but can be deployed as a high-upside WR3/WR4 in regular redraft leagues as well.

Over the past two seasons, Roethlisberger has averaged 0.63 fantasy points per pass attempt directed at Brown. He has averaged 0.46 fantasy points per pass attempt (FP/PA) to all other Pittsburgh wide receivers. In the two games that Brown missed, Roethlisberger's passing yards dropped by 13%, his YPA dropped by 9%, his touchdowns dropped by 27% and his fantasy points per game dropped by 18%.

Smith-Schuster averaged 10.4 T/G in his second season, blossoming into a bona fide fantasy WR1. He’s going to see more defensive attention with Antonio Brown gone, but he should be able to handle it. In the three games that Brown missed over the past two seasons, Smith-Schuster posted receiving lines of 6-75-1 (7 targets), 9-143-1 (10) and 5-37-1 (10). Draft JuJu with confidence.

The former second-rounder was highly productive in college, racking up 145 catches for 2929 yards and 23 touchdowns in his final two seasons at Oklahoma State. He won the Fred Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s top receiver in 2017 and was a favorite of #ReceptionPerception creator Matt Harmon as he evaluated last year’s draft class. After a strong preseason—catching seven passes for 158 yards and two touchdowns—The former second-rounder was highly productive in college, racking up 145 catches for 2929 yards and 23 touchdowns in his final two seasons at Oklahoma State. He won the Fred Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s top receiver in 2017 and was a favorite of #ReceptionPerception creator Matt Harmon as he evaluated last year’s draft class. After a strong preseason—catching seven passes for 158 yards and two touchdowns—Washington had a quiet rookie year, catching just 16 balls for 217 yards and a touchdown on 30 targets, but there wasn’t much room for Washington in the offense with Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster gobbling up 166+ targets apiece. Even though he was playing fifth fiddle in the passing game, Washington still played 55% of the snaps and had two of his best games late in the season, posting 3-65 on four targets against the Patriots in Week 15 and 3-64 on three targets in Week 17 with Brown sidelined. Recent reports say that Donte Moncrief is well ahead of Washington on the depth chart, while Washington is having trouble holding off Dionte Johnson to be the team’s WR3.

Camp reports have consistently said that Moncrief has been running as the No. 2 option after JuJu Smith-Schuster, so I have flipped Moncrief and James Washington in our projections. If Moncrief truly is the WR2, he’s going to be a screaming value in the ninth or 10th round. Antonio Brown vacated 168 targets so there is plenty of room for one or two players to emerge in this offense.

Wilson has three Top 3 finishes in the last five years, but the Seahawks’ run-heavy ways have made Wilson’s scoring heavily dependent on his ability to throw touchdowns. His 8.2% touchdown rate was the seventh highest since 2000. Patrick Mahomes was one of the seven, so excluding him, the other five quarterbacks experienced a drop of 34.7% in their touchdown rate, which would put Wilson at 5.3%, well below his career average of 6.0%. I feel comfortable penciling in Wilson for another 29-30 passing touchdowns, but unless the Seahawks increase his passing volume (unlikely, from the sound of it) or he runs more frequently, he’s going to have a tough time posting Top 5 numbers.

Lockett finished as the No. 11 receiver in standard formats and No. 17 in PPR, and that was with Doug Baldwin leading the team in targets (73). Those targets are up for grabs, so there’s a good chance that Lockett will be able to build on the 70 targets that he saw last season, which should offset any potential loss in efficiency. He’s a solid fantasy WR2.

In eight games with the 49ers where he attempted at least 26 passes, Garoppolo posted an average of 283 yards, 1.4 touchdowns and 1.0 interceptions per game, for a 16.0 fantasy points per game average. If he’s able to play a full season at that pace, he’s looking at a high-end QB2 finish.

The rookie played at a 64-989-11 pace (on a 99-target pace) over his final six games. He should be a full-time starter and enjoy a QB upgrade in his second season. He’s an intriguing breakout candidate typically available in the seventh round.

Dante Pettis has not had a good camp, and the team is reportedly trying to find a receiver to "start alongside Marquise Goodwin this season." In eight games over the last two seasons with Jimmy Garoppolo, Goodwin has played at a 72-984-4 full-season pace, and should have played at an 8.8-touchdown pace according to Kevin Zatloukal's xTD statistic.

Samuel posted 62-882-11 in his senior season at South Carolina. He missed most of his junior season, but had an impressive 59-783-1 (adding 98 yards and six touchdowns on the ground) as a sophomore. Two beat writers have projected that Samuel would start as the 49ers’ “Z” receiver, making him a starter opposite Dante Pettis. George Kittle is likely going to lead this team in targets, but Samuel could be a good value in the later rounds, especially in PPR formats. Kendrick Bourne posted 30 catches for 361 yards (on 45 targets) in eight starts last year. Samuel finished as the seventh-best prospect in Kevin Zatloukal’s WR Success Model.

Winston’s value has spiked since the arrival of new head coach Bruce Arians, who appears to be very committed to the former Heisman winner. In the 20 games over the past two seasons in which Winston attempted at least 25 passes—a way of filtering out a few of those games where Winston either did not start or was benched during the game—he has averaged 19.4 PPG. In 11 such games in 2018, he averaged 20.0 PPG. Those are top eight numbers. Arians’ history with Carson Palmer—20.8 PPG playing for Arians in 38 games from 2015-17—makes this look like a great pairing. If he’s going in the double-digit rounds, he’ll be a fantastic late-round quarterback option. Arians should be able to get the most out of Winston, especially with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard in the fold.

Evans followed up a No. 18 finish in 2017 with a No. 8 finish in 2018. He’s currently the eighth receiver off the board, so fantasy owners believe we’ll see a repeat of 2018. There’s a new regime in town, while DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries are no longer around to threaten his targets. The Bucs still have Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard, so we don’t expect Evans targets to increase too much, but he should do well in Bruce Arians’ scheme.

Godwin finished strong in 2017, posting 3-98 on six targets against the Panthers in Week 16 and 7-111-1 on 12 targets against the Saints in Week 17. In the five games as a rookie where he played at least 50% of the snaps, he averaged 4.2 catches for 73 yards and 0.20 touchdowns on 7.2 targets per game. In 2018, he finished the season as the No. 25 receiver despite the fact that he played more than 70% of the snaps in just six games, five of which came with DeSean Jackson mostly sidelined from Week 13 to Week 17. Godwin is expected to start, play some slot, and “is going to be close to a 100-catch guy,” per new HC Bruce Arians. Everything is lining up for a breakout season in 2019.

Watson was a favorite of Kevin Zatloukal’s Rookie WR Success Model, coming in ahead of Christian Kirk, Courtland Sutton and Calvin Ridley, though his gaudy stats (81 catches for 1083 yards and 14 touchdowns) against questionable competition had something to do with that. However, Watson’s measurables (4.49 40-yard dash, 87th percentile speed score, 88th percentile burst score and a 92nd-percentile catch radius, per Player Profiler) also contributed to his strong finish in Kevin’s model. The team let Adam Humphries walk in free agency and traded away DeSean Jackson, so Watson just has to beat out Breshad Perriman to get on the field with regularity.

Mariota’s career has weirdly tailed off after a good start. In his first two seasons, Mariota played 27 games and averaged 231 yards passing (7.60 YPA), 1.67 pass touchdowns, 0.70 interceptions, 23 rushing yards and 0.15 rushing touchdowns for 17.4 fantasy points per game. His per game fantasy production was the 17th-best at his position in that span, ahead of Philip Rivers, Jameis Winston and Alex Smith. In 29 games over the last two seasons, he has averaged just 199 yards passing (7.35 YPA), 0.83 pass touchdowns, 0.79 interceptions, 23 rushing yards and 0.24 rushing touchdowns for a per game average of 13.3 fantasy points. Delanie Walker is back and the team added A.J. Brown in the draft and Adam Humphries in free agency, so the Titans seem to be prioritizing the passing game heading into 2019.

Davis finished as the No. 27 receiver in his sophomore season, catching 65 passes for 891 yards and four touchdowns on 112 targets. He’s one of 12 receivers since 2000 who have posted 800 to 1,000 yards in their age 23 sophomore season. The other 11 receivers increased their per game targets by 10%, their receptions by 8%, their yards by 5% and their touchdowns by 11%. Applying those increases to Davis’s sophomore production results in a 70-catch, 936-yard, 4.4-touchdown season. That sort of production would have resulted in a high-end WR3/low-end WR2 finish in each of the last two years. On the negative side, the Titans added quite a bit to their passing game this offseason, signing Adam Humphries and drafting A.J. Brown. Delanie Walker is also returning, so Davis’s targets could get pinched.

Snaps in the Washington receiving corps are as wide open as any in the league, so McLaurin has a chance to play a lot right away. In response to a question about Paul Richardson and Josh Doctson, HC Jay Gruden shifted the conversation to McLaurin saying that he has that “wow factor” and going on to say that “he’s powerful, he’s smart, and he’s physical.” The Athletic beat writer Ben Standing came away from the conversation with Gruden thinking that McLaurin would start. McLaurin caught 35 passes for 701 yards and 11 touchdowns as a senior at Ohio State and has ridiculous speed (4.35 40-yard dash), along with good burst and agility, per Player Profiler.