• T.J. Hockenson

  • TE
  • , Detroit Lions
  • 24
  • 251 lbs
  • 6' 5"
PtsRecYdsRecTDRecRuYds
1087236670
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Draft note
by John Paulsen
There is a Hockenson breakout season incoming due to a likely increase in targets. With Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones out and Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman in, Hockenson could/should lead the Lions in targets. Hockenson is coming off a No. 4 finish last year and should see a spike in his per-game production. He’s a fine choice in the fifth or sixth round for owners who want a safe tight end with top-three upside. The one concern here is that this Lions offense could really struggle to score touchdowns, but Hockenson should produce a lot of catches and yards.

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Scouting report

by Frank Ammirante

DET TE T.J. Hockenson - 2021 Fantasy Football Outlook

Fantasy Upside
T.J. Hockenson caught 67-of-101 targets for 723 yards (10.8 Y/R) and six touchdowns last season, finishing as TE7 in half-PPR points per game. This is impressive considering it was his age-23 season, his second in the NFL. This is a player with first-round (eighth overall) draft capital, playing for a team with journeyman wide receivers and a fourth-round rookie on the perimeter. There’s a legitimate chance that Hockenson becomes the de facto WR1 in this offense. Considering that Hockenson already has a 100+ target season under his belt, an uptick in volume that would put him in the Travis Kelce and Darren Waller-tier in target share is not out of the realm of possibility. Hockenson is one of the best targets at tight end if you decide to target the position in the middle rounds.

Fantasy Downside
The Lions have deep-threats like Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams on the perimeter, but these two wideouts aren’t really scaring any opposing defense. This means that there’s a chance that Hockenson will often find himself bottled up by defenders with limited opportunities to accumulate yards after the catch. There’s a chance that Hockenson can see his yards per reception drop from 10.8 to below 10 yards due to this poor receiving core. Having said that, 100+ targets looks like a highly likely outcome, so Hockenson should still be able to return similar value to last season, even in the worst-case scenario.

Bottom Line

Hockenson is currently being drafted as TE6 (63.5 ADP) in Underdog fantasy leagues. This is a solid value considering that he finished as TE7 last season as a 23-year old with Marvin Jones Jr. eating into the target share. Hockenson has the talent to ascend to the Kelce-Waller-Kittle tier of tight ends, especially with the upcoming uptick in volume. Don’t worry too much about the potential inefficiency of this Lions’ offense. Just bet on the draft capital and volume with Hockenson. He has a nice combination of floor and upside.

2021 Strength of Schedule - DET

W1W2W3W4W5W6W7W8W9W10W11W12W13W14W15W16W17
1
SF
5
@GB
18
BAL
31
@CHI
7
@MIN
26
CIN
20
@LAR
27
PHI
BYE3
@PIT
30
@CLE
31
CHI
7
MIN
6
@DEN
8
ARI
29
@ATL
19
@SEA

Schedule difficulty based on schedule-adjusted, positional defensive ranking. Top DEF = 1, bottom DEF = 32.

Game Stats

WeekOppRecRecYdsRecTDTgtsYPRRuAttRuYdsRuTDFumYPCSTDPPRSnaps%
1CHI5561511.2000000.0011.616.650/7864.1%
2@GB4620415.5000000.006.210.241/5969.5%
3@ARI4530713.2500000.005.39.355/6782.1%
4NO29144.5000000.008.910.946/6175.4%
5BYE--------------
6@JAX217158.5000000.007.79.746/7759.7%
7@ATL5591611.8000000.0011.916.944/6271.0%
8IND7650109.2900000.006.513.545/6173.8%
9@MIN539187.8000000.009.914.957/7576.0%
10WAS213046.5000000.001.33.339/5966.1%
11@CAR4680717.0000000.006.810.837/5666.1%
12HOU5890817.8000000.008.913.960/8273.2%
13@CHI7840912.0000000.008.415.453/6877.9%
14GB6431117.1700000.0010.316.357/6883.8%
15@TEN218049.0010010.00-0.21.852/6580.0%
16TB423065.7500000.002.36.346/5386.8%
17MIN325038.3300000.002.55.539/5867.2%
Per game4.1945.190.386.3110.790.06000.060.006.7710.9647.94/65.5673.29%
Totals67723610110.7910010.00108.3175.3767/104973.29%
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