
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Murray gets a fresh start in Minnesota with one of the best offensive minds in football in Kevin O'Connell, and a supporting cast that blows away anything he had in Arizona. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones combine to form one of the deepest receiving groups in the league, and O'Connell has proven he can build an offense around his quarterback's strengths. From 2019 to 2024, Murray either finished as a QB1 or averaged QB1 numbers on a per-game basis in every season he played—including 2024, when he finished QB11 overall and QB12 per game with a far more limited cast in Arizona. His 2025 efficiency metrics—64th percentile in EPA per dropback and 40th percentile in CPOE—aren't eye-popping, but those came in just five starts before injury shut him down. The rushing remains elite for fantasy purposes: Murray averaged 35.0 yards per start on the ground last season, and that kind of dual-threat ability in O'Connell's system is a dangerous combination. The elephant in the room is durability. Murray has missed an average of 6.8 games per season over the last four years, and that's not a blip, it's a pattern. When he's on the field, he's a QB1. The problem is he hasn't played a full season since 2021. He's going as a midrange QB2, which means the market is almost entirely pricing in the injury risk. If he plays 14+ games with these weapons and this play-caller, he's a top-eight quarterback. That's significant upside at a QB2 price, but you'll want a viable backup plan on your roster.
Kyler Murray
- QB
- , Minnesota Vikings
- 29
- 207 lbs
- 5' 10"
- Oklahoma
- 111
- 1
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Josh Weinfuss
·Dec 05, 2025 · 12:06 PM EST
2026 Draft note
Murray gets a fresh start in Minnesota with one of the best offensive minds in football in Kevin O'Connell, and a supporting cast that blows away anything he had in Arizona. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones combine to form one of the deepest receiving groups in the league, and O'Connell has proven he can build an offense around his quarterback's strengths. From 2019 to 2024, Murray either finished as a QB1 or averaged QB1 numbers on a per-game basis in every season he played—including 2024, when he finished QB11 overall and QB12 per game with a far more limited cast in Arizona. His 2025 efficiency metrics—64th percentile in EPA per dropback and 40th percentile in CPOE—aren't eye-popping, but those came in just five starts before injury shut him down. The rushing remains elite for fantasy purposes: Murray averaged 35.0 yards per start on the ground last season, and that kind of dual-threat ability in O'Connell's system is a dangerous combination. The elephant in the room is durability. Murray has missed an average of 6.8 games per season over the last four years, and that's not a blip, it's a pattern. When he's on the field, he's a QB1. The problem is he hasn't played a full season since 2021. He's going as a midrange QB2, which means the market is almost entirely pricing in the injury risk. If he plays 14+ games with these weapons and this play-caller, he's a top-eight quarterback. That's significant upside at a QB2 price, but you'll want a viable backup plan on your roster.
2026 Strength of Schedule - MIN
| W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 | W14 | W15 | W16 | W17 | W18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 GB | 23 @CHI | 29 @TB | 22 MIA | 8 @NO | BYE | 16 IND | 26 @DET | 7 BUF | 10 @GB | 24 @SF | 25 ATL | 4 CAR | 17 @NE | 26 DET | 30 WAS | 28 @NYJ | 23 CHI |
Schedule difficulty based on schedule-adjusted, positional defensive ranking. Top DEF = 1, bottom DEF = 32.
Game Stats
| Wk | Opp | Comp | Att | PaYds | PaTD | Int | YPA | YPR | RuAtt | Yds | TD | Fum | YPC | Pts | Snaps | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @NO | 21 | 29 | 163 | 2 | 0 | 5.62 | 7.76 | 7 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 5.43 | 18.3 | 66/66 | 100.0% |
| 2 | CAR | 17 | 25 | 220 | 1 | 1 | 8.80 | 12.94 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 4.57 | 14.0 | 54/55 | 98.2% |
| 3 | @SF | 22 | 35 | 159 | 1 | 0 | 4.54 | 7.23 | 6 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 6.17 | 14.1 | 66/66 | 100.0% |
| 4 | SEA | 27 | 41 | 200 | 2 | 2 | 4.88 | 7.41 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 8.20 | 16.1 | 67/67 | 100.0% |
| 5 | TEN | 23 | 31 | 220 | 0 | 0 | 7.10 | 9.57 | 4 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 6.25 | 15.3 | 65/67 | 97.0% |
O
Injury Details (w6)
Status: Out Injury: Foot | @IND | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
O
Injury Details (w7)
Status: Out Injury: Foot | GB | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Q
Injury Details (w8)
Status: Questionable Injury: Foot | BYE | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
O
Injury Details (w9)
Status: Out Injury: Foot | @DAL | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
O
Injury Details (w10)
Status: Out Injury: Foot | @SEA | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
O
Injury Details (w11)
Status: Out Injury: Foot | SF | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
O
Injury Details (w12)
Status: Out Injury: Foot | JAX | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
O
Injury Details (w13)
Status: Out Injury: Foot | @TB | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
O
Injury Details (w14)
Status: Out Injury: Foot | LAR | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
O
Injury Details (w15)
Status: Out Injury: Foot | @HOU | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
O
Injury Details (w16)
Status: Out Injury: Foot | ATL | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
O
Injury Details (w17)
Status: Out Injury: Foot | @CIN | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 18 | @LAR | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Per game | 22.00 | 32.20 | 192.40 | 1.20 | 0.60 | 5.98 | 8.75 | 5.80 | 34.60 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 5.97 | 15.56 | 63.60/64.20 | 99.04% | |
| Totals | 110 | 161 | 962 | 6 | 3 | 5.98 | 8.75 | 29 | 173 | 1 | 1 | 5.97 | 77.78 | 318/321 | 99.04% | |






