Top 200 Value Based Rankings

Robinson finished as the fantasy RB4 in 2024, racking up 1,456 rushing yards, 431 receiving yards, and 15 total touchdowns while averaging 17.6 half-PPR points per game. He saw a big jump in usage and efficiency with a more consistent offensive structure under Zac Robinson, and now he’ll enter 2025 with Michael Penix Jr. under center. While young quarterbacks can be volatile, Penix’s downfield ability could help open up space underneath for Robinson in both the run and pass game. The Falcons didn’t add serious backfield competition, so Bijan should once again be in line for 300+ touches. With a playcaller committed to using him as a true three-down weapon, Robinson is locked in as a top-five fantasy back with a realistic path to finish as the overall RB1.

Chase bounced back in a massive way in 2024, finishing as the overall WR1 in both total points and per-game average. He racked up 127 receptions on 171 targets for 1,708 yards and 17 touchdowns, once again showcasing why he belongs in the elite tier of fantasy receivers. From an efficiency standpoint, Chase was as good as ever. Among 88 qualified receivers, he finished 8th in yards per route run, 12th in YAC per reception, and 11th in targeted QB rating—a testament to both his own talent and his chemistry with Joe Burrow. He was dominant at all levels of the field and continued to be a nightmare for opposing defenses. With the Bengals returning one of the league’s most potent passing attacks and Chase still firmly in his prime, there’s no reason to overthink this one. He’s an elite fantasy WR1 and one of the safest high-end first-round picks on the board in 2025.

Henry rushed for nearly 2,000 yards (1,921), and scored 18 total touchdowns. He should continue to defy Father Time, at least for one more season, probably more. He looked great last year, posting the highest yards after contact per attempt (2.8), the fourth-highest yards before contact per attempt (3.1) and the most broken tackles per attempt (0.13). He also posted the highest run grade (93.5) at PFF.

In his final collegiate season, Jeanty racked up 2,739 total yards and 30 touchdowns for Boise State. His receiving numbers (23-238-1) were modest, but he was far more utilized as a receiver in the previous season (43-569-5), so he has the receiving chops to be a dual-threat in the NFL. The Raiders struggled to run the ball last year (3.6 YPC as a team), and Jeanty should vastly improve the team's per carry and overall production. He's a dual threat and should see a bell cow workload, so he's a threat for fantasy RB1 numbers from the get-go. The only knocks on his game appear to be his shaky pass protection and suspect ball security. The former might impact his snaps if the Raiders elect to pull him out on obvious passing downs. Regardless, I’m expecting a huge workload, and that should lead to RB1 fantasy production. Follow the touches.

Achane followed up his electric rookie season with another strong campaign in 2024, finishing as the fantasy RB7 overall and RB11 on a per-game basis. He handled 281 touches for 1,499 total yards and 12 touchdowns, carving out a huge role in Miami’s high-powered offense. His 78 receptions on 87 targets made him one of the most valuable backs in PPR and half-PPR formats--he lead all running backs in receptions and was 10th in yards per route run (1.45) at his position. While his explosive playmaking remained a calling card, Achane's underlying rushing efficiency wasn’t elite. Among 46 running backs with at least 100 carries, he ranked 18th in yards before contact per attempt, 26th in yards after contact per attempt, and 41st in broken tackle rate. That said, Mike McDaniel continues to scheme him into space, and Achane’s game-breaking speed and pass-catching role give him one of the highest ceilings among RB1s. As long as he stays healthy, he’s a weekly difference-maker with top-five upside, especially in formats that reward receptions.

Malik Nabers posted a stellar rookie campaign, finishing as the fantasy WR7 in half-PPR formats despite subpar quarterback play. He hauled in 109 of 165 targets for 1,204 yards and seven touchdowns, showing immediate chemistry with whoever was under center for the Giants. Fortunately, his situation should improve in 2025, with Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, and Jaxson Dart all in the quarterback room—each an upgrade over last year’s options. Nabers’ underlying metrics reinforce his top-tier production. His 2.17 yards per route run ranked 21st out of 88 qualified receivers. However, he ranked just 56th in contested catch rate (46.2%) and 33rd in YAC per reception (4.4), so there’s still room to grow. With his elite route-running (87.1 PFF grade) and massive 165-target workload, Nabers is already one of the most productive fantasy receivers in the league. A step forward in efficiency—paired with better quarterback play—could push him into the uber-elite WR1 tier.

After finishing as the overall WR1 in 2023, Lamb followed it up with a WR5 campaign in 2024, cementing himself as one of the league’s elite fantasy wideouts. In 25 games with Dak Prescott over the last two seasons, Lamb has averaged a whopping 7.5 receptions for 96 yards and 0.64 touchdowns—essentially WR1 numbers every week. He was 13th in yards per route run and 28th in YAC/rec. The addition of George Pickens gives Dallas another capable receiver, but Lamb remains entrenched as the alpha in this passing game. Lamb may ultimately be helped by Pickens' presence as the defense won't be able to focus solely on stopping Lamb.

Irving finished RB16 on the year, so uninformed drafters may view him as a fantasy RB2, but he’s a clear, rock-solid RB1 in my book thanks to his productivity after the first month of the season. He started seeing more touches in Week 6, and from that point on, he was the fantasy RB8. He had the fourth-highest PFF rush grade in that span, and was fifth in yards after contact per attempt on the season. HC Todd Bowles told The Athletic that he “expects greatness” and that Irving’s “opportunities are likely to increase substantially.” He’s a baller and has a great future ahead of him.

St. Brown followed up his WR3 finish in 2023 with another WR3 season in 2024, finishing fifth on a per-game basis. He continues to be one of the most reliable receivers in football, having missed just two games in his four-year career. A new offensive coordinator could shake things up a bit in Detroit, but St. Brown’s role as the focal point of the passing attack should remain intact. He finished 11th in yards per route run and has proven to be both efficient and volume-driven—a rare combo. Fantasy managers should feel comfortable drafting him as a midrange to high-end WR1 once again.

Bowers had a terrific rookie campaign, finishing with 112 catches for 1,194 yards and five touchdowns on a whopping 153 targets. The stars aligned early, with Davante Adams traded away and Michael Mayer missing significant time, clearing the runway for Bowers to immediately become the focal point of the Raiders’ passing attack. He handled the volume with ease, showcasing the athleticism and route-running prowess that made him a generational tight end prospect coming out of Georgia. With Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews now in the twilight of their careers, Bowers enters 2025 with a strong case to be the fantasy TE1. He offers elite volume, consistency, and a high floor typically reserved for top-tier wideouts. The arrival of Geno Smith should also provide a boost in quarterback play, potentially improving Bowers' efficiency after a solid (but not spectacular) rookie-season catch rate of 73.2%. In a thinning elite tight end landscape, Bowers stands out as a weekly advantage and should be a second-round pick in most formats. In TE-premium, he's a surefire first-rounder.

Brian Thomas Jr. turned in an excellent rookie season and was one of my favorite late-round targets (typically available in the 9th round). He vastly outperformed that ADP, finishing as the overall WR4 and WR10 on a per-game basis thanks to a 87-129-1,282-10 receiving line. He hit the ground running in Jacksonville and quickly emerged as Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target. Among 88 qualified receivers, Thomas finished 6th in yards per route run and 10th in YAC per reception—elite efficiency for any wideout, let alone a rookie. With Christian Kirk and Evan Engram both gone and Travis Hunter expected to play part-time on offense, Thomas should continue to see plenty of volume in 2025. He checks all the boxes: size, speed, route running, and now proven production. It’s wheels up from here.

After a WR5 finish in 2023, Brown slipped to WR14 last season, though he was WR12 on a per-game basis after missing a few games. His targets dropped from 9.3 per game to 7.5, a noticeable decline that was mostly due to the Eagles' emphasis on the running game with Saquon Barkley in the fold. There’s optimism that new offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo will open things up more in 2025, which would be good news for Brown. He finished 3rd in yards per route run among 110 qualified receivers, a strong indicator that he’s still among the most efficient wideouts in the league. A solid-yet-unspectacular YAC per reception mark (29th) suggests he wasn’t quite as explosive after the catch as he was in his first couple of seasons, but Brown remains a premier talent with a strong rapport with Jalen Hurts. He’s priced slightly below the WR1 tier in early drafts, but another top-five season is well within reach if the Eagles throw a little more.

After a slow start to his career, London finally delivered on his first-round draft pedigree, finishing as the WR9 in 2024. The third-year breakout was fueled in part by a promising connection with rookie quarterback Michael Penix, who targeted London on an outrageous 39.1% of his pass attempts. London turned those looks into 22 catches for 352 yards and two touchdowns in just under three games of action. While his YAC per reception (80th among 110 qualified receivers) leaves something to be desired, London’s route-running chops are undeniable—he ranked 12th in yards per route run, a key indicator of individual efficiency. With Penix under center and the Falcons’ offense trending upward, London looks like a locked-in WR1 with room to climb.

McConkey was one of the most pro-ready receivers in the 2024 class, and he backed that up with a stellar rookie campaign. A favorite of Matt Harmon during the pre-draft process, McConkey caught 91 passes for 1,346 yards and 8 touchdowns, finishing as the WR13 overall and WR20 on a per-game basis. His smooth route running and advanced feel for coverages translated immediately. His underlying metrics support the breakout: McConkey finished 4th among 88 qualified receivers in yards per route run and ranked 13th in contested catch rate despite not being a prototypical “above-the-rim” player. He was also 10th in targeted QB rating and 26th in YAC per reception, showing how efficient and quarterback-friendly he was across the board. Looking ahead to 2025, McConkey is expected to build on his strong debut, though the addition of rookie Tre Harris and the return of Mike Williams could put a ceiling on his target share. Still, with Justin Herbert at quarterback, McConkey should remain a high-floor WR2 with room for more.

McBride followed up his 2023 breakout with another highly productive season, catching 111 passes for 1,146 yards in Year 3. While he only scored two touchdowns—bringing his career total to just six on 292 receptions—his elite target share and efficiency keep him firmly in the top tier of fantasy tight ends. He finished third among all tight ends in yards per route run (2.14), just ahead of Brock Bowers, and continues to operate as Kyler Murray’s most trusted target in the Cardinals' passing game. Arizona still lacks serious firepower at wide receiver, which solidifies McBride’s weekly usage. While the lack of touchdowns is frustrating, he’s essentially functioning as a high-floor WR2 from the tight end slot in half- and full-PPR formats. The hope is that positive regression hits in the red zone, and if it does, he has the potential to finish as the overall TE1.

Hurts finished as the fantasy QB6 but missed most of Week 16 and all of Week 17. His 22.2 points per game in his 14 non-injury games would have been the fourth-highest average, just ahead of Jayden Daniels. With Saquon Barkley in tow, the Eagles were more run-oriented in 2024, and Hurts’s pass attempts dropped from 31.6 per game in 2023 to 25.5 last year. If his pass attempts remain that low, he will have a tough time challenging Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen for an overall QB1 finish, especially with Barkley keeping his rushing touchdowns in check. He’s still a rock-solid, high-end QB1 even if his ceiling isn’t as high these days.

After finishing as the fantasy RB6 in 2023, Hall took a step back in 2024, ending the year as the RB18 in both total points and points per game. While the Jets’ offensive dysfunction certainly didn’t help, Hall’s rushing efficiency also left something to be desired. Among 46 qualified backs, he ranked 26th in yards before contact, 22nd in yards after contact, and 42nd in broken tackles per attempt. His PFF rushing grade (39th of 57 backs) echoed the underwhelming ground performance. What keeps Hall firmly in the fringe RB1 conversation is his elite receiving workload. Over the past two seasons, he leads all running backs in receiving yards (1,074) and ranks second in receptions (133). Even with a middling 20th-place finish in yards per route run, that volume matters—especially in PPR and half-PPR formats. If the Jets’ offense can stabilize with better quarterback play from Justin Fields, Hall has top-10 upside based on passing-game usage alone, even if the rushing efficiency doesn’t bounce back.

Smith-Njigba took a massive leap in his second season, finishing as the WR8 after a modest WR46 rookie campaign. JSN seized a featured role in the Seahawks’ passing attack, posting 100 catches for 1,130 yards and six touchdowns. His efficiency was solid as well—he ranked 38th in yards per route run and 35th in YAC per reception (among 110 qualified receivers), both above average marks that reflect his route polish and ability after the catch. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are both gone, and Cooper Kupp joins the receiver room, but at this stage of his career, he doesn’t profile as the high-volume option he once was. JSN should lead the way in targets, and with Sam Darnold under center, the passing offense should remain steady. There’s enough passing volume in Klint Kubiak's system to support another high-end WR2 season—or possibly a repeat WR1 finish.

Walker has been productive when healthy, finishing as the fantasy RB20 in 2023 (RB18 on a per-game basis) and RB26 in 2024 despite missing time—he was RB14 on a per-game basis last season. Health has been an issue, though, as he's missed 10 games over his first three years. His rushing efficiency was a mixed bag in 2024. Among 46 running backs with at least 100 carries, Walker ranked just 42nd in yards before contact per attempt and 30th in yards after contact, but he was 13th in broken tackles per attempt and earned the third-highest rushing grade at PFF. He continues to show strong vision and elusiveness, even if the Seahawks' offensive line doesn't always open consistent lanes. He caught a career-high 46 passes last season, so his role seems to be growing in the passing game.

After leading the league with 1,799 receiving yards in 2023, Hill surprisingly failed to crack the 1,000-yard mark in 2024 despite playing all 17 games. He injured his wrist during training camp and gutted out the season, ultimately undergoing a pair of surgeries this offseason. The Dolphins are hopeful he’ll be ready for the start of camp. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception noted a “pretty concerning dropoff” across the board in Hill’s performance last year, particularly against man coverage, which had been a strength throughout his career. Now entering his age-31 season, it’s fair to question whether Hill’s elite days are behind him or if the wrist injury played a larger role in last year’s inefficiency than we realize. Given his track record, Hill shouldn’t be written off, but drafters may want to bake in a bit more risk. If healthy, he still has the speed and role to return WR1 value, but the floor is lower than it’s been in years.

In a bit of a surprise, the Panthers signed Rico Dowdle in free agency. Last year, Dowdle and Hubbard both averaged 2.2 yards after contact per attempt, while Hubbard had the advantage in broken tackles (17.9 att/broken tackle vs. 21.4 att/broken tackle for Dowdle) and PFF rush grade (87.0 vs. 74.4). Hubbard handled 73.1% of the team's backfield carries and 60.6% of the receptions. With a healthy Dowdle in the mix, I could see those shares being closer to 65% of the carries and 50% of the receptions. That being said, Miles Sanders fared a lot better as a receiver than Hubbard did (6.2 YPR vs. 4.0 YPR) yet Hubbard nearly doubled Sanders in receptions (43 to 24), so Hubbard's backfield shares may depend mostly on his playing time versus specific roles for him and Dowdle.

Expectations were sky high for Harrison heading into his rookie campaign, but he finished as the WR32 in total points and WR43 on a per-game basis. While the box score didn’t reflect the fantasy breakout many predicted, Matt Harmon of Reception Perception believes Harrison “had a good rookie season,” citing route nuance and technical polish that didn’t always translate due to schematic and quarterback limitations. Harmon added that for Harrison to take the next step, the Cardinals need to “mix up his deployment,” while Harrison himself needs to improve “in tight coverage and working back to the quarterback.” The advanced data backs up that assessment. Among 88 qualified receivers, Harrison ranked 66th in contested catch rate, 81st in YAC per reception, and 44th in yards per route run. He caught 62 of 114 targets for 885 yards and 8 touchdowns—solid numbers, but underwhelming given his pedigree and opportunity. With a full offseason under his belt, a year of NFL experience, and the hope of improved quarterback play, Harrison should be positioned for a Year 2 leap. He remains a high-end talent who profiles as the team’s long-term WR1, but his 2025 fantasy value hinges on whether Arizona can create a more dynamic passing attack to unlock his ceiling.

Montgomery continues to be a reliable fantasy option in Detroit’s high-powered offense, finishing as the RB17 in 2024 despite missing three games—he was the RB13 on a per-game basis. That followed a strong 2023 campaign where he finished RB14 overall and RB8 in per-game scoring. As Jahmyr Gibbs' role grew, Montgomery’s touches dipped slightly from 16.8 per game in 2023 to 15.8 in 2024, but he made up for it with a larger receiving role—jumping from 16 receptions to 36 year-over-year. Efficiency-wise, he remains a tough, physical runner: he ranked 36th in yards before contact but 15th in yards after contact and 4th in broken tackles per attempt. His 16th-place PFF rushing grade was solid, reinforcing his reputation as an above-average grinder who can get the tough yards and score touchdowns. Montgomery’s weekly upside is somewhat TD-dependent, but his consistent workload and role near the goal line make him a dependable RB2, even as Gibbs becomes the flashier fantasy asset. If Gibbs were to get injured, Monty would have top-five upside.

Conner continues to produce at a high level, finishing as the fantasy RB10 in 2024 after an RB15 per-game finish the year prior. Now entering his age-30 season, he’s still getting it done with outstanding efficiency—among 46 qualified backs, he ranked 9th in yards after contact per attempt, 5th in broken tackles per attempt, and earned the 8th-highest rushing grade at PFF. Despite his physical running style, he’s showing no signs of slowing down just yet. That said, the Cardinals may be preparing to ease his workload. Rookie Trey Benson is waiting in the wings, and head coach Jonathan Gannon recently said, “If [Trey] takes the necessary jump from Year 1 to Year 2, I think we have two starting backs.” That could signal a shift toward more of a timeshare in 2025, especially with Conner entering a more injury-prone phase of his career. Conner’s still a strong, tackle-breaking runner in an offense that looked improved with Kyler Murray back under center. He’s best viewed as a mid-range RB2 with some RB1 weeks in his range, though his age and Benson’s presence add some risk to his season-long volume.

Montgomery continues to be a reliable fantasy option in Detroit’s high-powered offense, finishing as the RB17 in 2024 despite missing three games—he was the RB13 on a per-game basis. That followed a strong 2023 campaign where he finished RB14 overall and RB8 in per-game scoring. As Jahmyr Gibbs' role grew, Montgomery’s touches dipped slightly from 16.8 per game in 2023 to 15.8 in 2024, but he made up for it with a larger receiving role—jumping from 16 receptions to 36 year-over-year. Efficiency-wise, he remains a tough, physical runner: he ranked 36th in yards before contact but 15th in yards after contact and 4th in broken tackles per attempt. His 16th-place PFF rushing grade was solid, reinforcing his reputation as an above-average grinder who can get the tough yards and score touchdowns. Montgomery’s weekly upside is somewhat TD-dependent, but his consistent workload and role near the goal line make him a dependable RB2, even as Gibbs becomes the flashier fantasy asset.

Worthy’s role grew steadily in the second half of the season. From Week 11 to Week 17, he averaged 5.6-56-0.43 on 7.9 targets per game. He added 9.6 yards and 0.14 rush touchdowns in that span. In three playoff games, he racked up 19 catches for 287 yards and three scores on 7.0 targets per game. He was 9th in yards after contact per reception. Rashee Rice is back and healthy, but may be facing a multi-game suspension after his court case came to a close in mid-July. Worthy’s value gets a bump if Rice misses time, as expected.

Smith followed up a WR18 campaign in 2023 with a WR24 finish last season, though he was WR17 on a per-game basis. He continues to shine as one of the league’s premier route-runners and posted above-average marks in both yards per route run (29th) and YAC per reception (44th). Smith is a rock-solid WR2 with weekly upside, but his ceiling remains capped in Philadelphia’s run-leaning offense. A.J. Brown is going to get his targets, and as long as he's healthy, Smith will be fighting for volume in a crowded attack. If Brown were to miss time, Smith has already shown that he can produce top-10 numbers with expanded opportunity. In the meantime, drafters should continue to view him as a high-floor, low-WR2 with room to spike if the situation breaks in his favor.

After a rocky start to his career, Williams broke out in Year 3, turning 91 targets into 58 catches for 1,001 yards and seven scores in 15 games, finishing as the WR19. He was a big-play threat all year, ranking 3rd in YAC per reception and 30th in yards per route run—both strong indicators of his development as a more complete receiver. Matt Harmon noted in Reception Perception that Williams "revived what was at one point looking like a shaky career," though he still has technical refinement and off-field consistency to prove. Still, the physical tools are clearly translating. A new offensive coordinator could introduce some volatility to the Lions’ passing game, but with Williams now firmly established as a strong No. 2 behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, another top-20 finish is well within reach. He’s a high-upside WR3 pick in the middle rounds.

Sutton turned in a WR15 finish last year, buoyed by Bo Nix’s unexpectedly strong rookie campaign and a continued lack of serious target competition in Denver. Sutton was 32nd in yards per route run—an above-average mark—but remained near the bottom of the league in YAC/rec, underscoring his role as more of a contested-catch, sideline-winning presence than a post-catch dynamo. The Broncos did add Evan Engram in free agency and Pat Bryant in the draft, and Marvin Mims could take a step forward in Year 3 after a strong finish last season, but Sutton should once again be Nix’s go-to guy on the outside. His profile suggests another solid WR2 season is within reach, though his weekly ceiling may be capped if Mims or Engram emerge as more dynamic after-the-catch options.

Pollard was the fantasy RB21 last season. He did benefit from the absence of Tyjae Spears, who missed a few games. Pollard’s workload increased from 16.4 touches per game with Spears to 24.2 touches in the five games that Spears missed. The arrival of Cam Ward should help the Titans’ offense and, in turn, Pollard’s touchdown prospects. He looks more like a low-end RB2 than his midrange RB3 ADP would indicate.

Flowers followed up his WR27 rookie campaign with a WR22 finish in his second season, continuing to show steady growth as Lamar Jackson’s top wideout. He finished 16th in yards per route run and 17th in YAC/rec, solidifying his role as a high-efficiency playmaker in a Baltimore offense that doesn't always lean pass-heavy but remains productive through the air. Flowers has proven capable of earning targets and creating after the catch, though he still profiles best as a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3 heading into 2025. With no major additions to the Ravens' receiving corps and another year of continuity in the offense, Flowers offers a high floor in PPR formats, even if the ceiling remains limited in a run-oriented system.

Mayfield rounds out the Top 6, which is not something I ever thought I’d be saying after his career began to go sideways in his fourth season. But he has finished QB5 and QB9 the last two seasons, has one of the best receiving corps–Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, Jalen McMillan, and Cade Otton–in the league, and he can run a little bit (378 yards, 3 rushing touchdowns last season). My only concern is that he’s on his third offensive coordinator in three years, but new OC Josh Grizzard was promoted from within and was the pass game coordinator last season. Mayfield should post midrange QB1 numbers once again.

Jones remains one of the most productive dual-threat running backs in the league. He racked up the seventh-most yards from scrimmage (1,546) and the eighth-most receptions (51) at his position, finishing as the fantasy RB15 on the year. His 306 touches were a career-high and it’s unlikely that the 30-year-old back will be able to hold up to that kind of workload. The Athletic’s Alec Lewis reported that the Vikings want more of a “by-committee approach” in 2025, and they traded for a solid committee back (Jordan Mason), so Jones is shaping up to be a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 type.

After a WR20 finish in 2023, Pickens slipped to WR38 last season while catching passes from Justin Fields and Russell Wilson. A move to Dallas should help his fantasy value even if he plays second fiddle to CeeDee Lamb. The Cowboys may not have much of a running game, which could force them to be more pass-heavy, and Pickens has shown the ability to thrive with volume. He posted a solid 23rd-place finish in yards per route run (of 112 qualified receivers), though his YAC/rec numbers remain average, consistent with his downfield, perimeter role. Pickens likely won't see WR1 volume, but he has the talent to produce WR2 numbers in a pass-first offense, especially if Lamb were to miss any time. As a fantasy WR3 with upside, he's an intriguing target in the middle rounds.

Over the past two seasons, Mahomes has finished QB7 (2023) and QB10 (2024) after three straight top-4 finishes in 2020-22. He seems to be settling into midrange QB1 territory, but we know he has overall QB1 upside. Rashee Rice is back, which helps, especially given the apparent decline of Mahomes’ go-to target, Travis Kelce. Xavier Worthy is a weapon, and Hollywood Brown rounds out a good starting receiving unit. Mahomes’ touchdown percentage and passing volume are both down relative to his fantasy hayday, and that’s not a recipe for an elite-level finish.

Waddle took a step back in 2024, averaging just 4.1 catches for 58 yards and 0.20 touchdowns on 5.3 targets in 10 games with Tua Tagovailoa—production that landed him in WR4 territory on a per-game basis. That’s a far cry from the high-end WR2 output he posted in 2022-23, when he averaged 4.8 catches for 79 yards and 0.44 touchdowns in 27 games with Tagovailoa. The question heading into 2025 is whether Waddle can recapture that earlier chemistry. His talent remains undeniable, but the Dolphins’ passing game cooled off last season, and with Tyreek Hill recovering from offseason surgeries, defenses may focus more attention on Waddle. He has the skill set to bounce back, but fantasy managers drafting him as a WR3 are betting on a return to form that’s no longer guaranteed.

Hockenson returned from ACL/MCL surgery in Week 9 and was a serviceable but uninspiring fantasy option the rest of the way. In 10 games played, he failed to find the end zone and averaged just 7.1 half-PPR points per game, a midrange TE2 pace. That’s a far cry from his 2023 output (95 catches for 960 yards), and it remains to be seen if he can return to that level post-injury. The good news: He plays in a strong Kevin O’Connell offense, and rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy appears ready to run the show. The volume should be there, but whether Hockenson can capitalize hinges on his ability to recapture his pre-injury explosiveness and red zone involvement. He has top-5 upside, but with a TE5 ADP, there’s not a ton of value baked in—making him a slightly risky pick for drafters hoping for a full bounce-back.

Andrews got off to a painfully slow start in 2024, likely due in part to a preseason car accident that may have lingered into the regular season. Through four weeks, he managed just six catches for 65 yards on nine total targets. But once the season got rolling, so did Andrews. From Week 5 on, he played at a 64-catch, 795-yard, and 14.4-touchdown pace and finished as the fantasy TE5 during that stretch—even while playing just 63% of the snaps and averaging the 20th-most targets per game. That production speaks to his elite red-zone usage and chemistry with Lamar Jackson, but there are red flags. Isaiah Likely continues to push for a larger role, and head coach John Harbaugh publicly challenged Likely to “be an All-Pro” in 2025—something that may not coexist with a high-end fantasy season for Andrews. He turns 30 in September, but tight ends tend to age well, and the fact that Andrews was sixth in yards per route run speaks to his continued production. (Though he was 41st of 44 eligible tight ends in YAC/rec, another red flag.) He remains a strong bet for low-end TE1 numbers with week-winning upside if the touchdowns hold.

Warren took a step back in 2024, finishing as the RB40 after an RB24 campaign the year before. When the Steelers traded away Najee Harris, it looked like Warren might finally see lead-back touches—but then Pittsburgh spent a third-round pick on Kaleb Johnson, a downhill runner who could take over Harris’s early-down and goal-line role almost entirely. With Arthur Smith calling plays, this backfield looks destined for a committee. Smith has a history of deploying multiple backs, and Johnson’s size and draft capital suggest he’ll be involved right away. That likely leaves Warren in a change-of-pace and passing-down role, which still holds fantasy value—he ranked 13th in yards per route run among running backs last season and remains one of the better receiving backs in the league. Warren is a solid RB3/FLEX in PPR and half-PPR formats, but his weekly ceiling may be limited unless Johnson stumbles or gets hurt.

The warning signs were there in 2023, and they materialized in 2024. Kelce posted career-lows in receiving yards, touchdowns, YAC per reception, and yards per route run—clear indicators that age may finally be catching up to the future Hall of Famer. Even so, Kelce still finished as the TE6 overall and was the TE8 on a per-game basis, so while the days of him lapping the field at the position may be over, he remains a viable low-end TE1. With Rashee Rice back and Xavier Worthy emerging, there’s more competition for targets than in recent years, but Kelce still plays in a high-functioning offense with Patrick Mahomes at the helm. He’s no longer a positional cheat code, but he’s a solid veteran option for those who wait until the middle rounds to draft a tight end.

Njoku missed six games in 2024 and has missed 11 games in the last four years. Otherwise, he’s been a great fantasy asset in Cleveland despite some suspect quarterback play. He was the TE5 on a per-game basis in 2024 while garnering the third-most targets per game (8.8) at his position. One way or another, I expect the QB play in Cleveland to improve, and that should benefit Njoku along with everyone else.

Nix finished QB9 on the season, but after a rough start, he was the fantasy QB5 from Week 5 on. He has dual-threat ability and scored at least 16.1 fantasy points in 10 of his last 13 games. “Good” rookie quarterbacks tend to regress a bit in year two–fantasy points drop on average by 6.3%– but the Broncos added Evan Engram in free agency and two receiving weapons–second-round RB RJ Harvey and third-round WR Pat Bryant–in the Draft, and that could offset a sophomore regression.

Pacheco just couldn’t get it going after returning from a fractured fibula early in the season. He averaged just 35 rush yards on 9.8 carries post-injury and ultimately was playing behind Kareem Hunt in the Chiefs’ postseason run. I would normally not worry too much about Pacheco’s production immediately after a nasty leg injury, but the Chiefs re-signed Hunt and acquired Elijah Mitchell, so I’m certainly worried about Pacheco’s prospects of regaining the lead back role in Kansas City. This is a backfield to monitor this summer.

He finished TE8 in his second season and is primed for another leap in production if he can earn a larger role in the offense. But that’s the problem with drafting Packer receivers–Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love spread the ball around so much it’s tough to count on anyone in a given week. But Kraft led the position in yards after contact and broken tackles per catch, so he’s got the talent to join the top 5. He should finish TE8 again at a minimum, barring injury.

Addison finished WR17 last season, buoyed by an impressive 10 touchdowns, though his underlying usage and efficiency tell a more modest story. His yards per route run and YAC per reception were middling, suggesting he may have overperformed a bit in the touchdown department. A regression in scoring could push him back toward WR3 territory if his volume doesn’t increase. On the plus side, Addison made “big strides in his second NFL season,” according to Matt Harmon of Reception Perception, who also noted he was “much better and more consistent at separating against man coverage.” That’s an encouraging sign for a young receiver trying to solidify a long-term role alongside Justin Jefferson. There’s also some off-field risk after a DUI offense that was pleaded down to a lesser charge. A suspension is still possible, which could cut into his 2025 production. If he avoids discipline and continues progressing, Addison should once again be in the weekly WR2/WR3 conversation, but fantasy managers should keep expectations tempered given the red flags.

Prior to missing the second half of the season with a concussion, Olave had his ups and downs, gaining 80+ yards in four of his six healthy games while failing to reach 12 yards in the other two games. In those six healthy games and in 2023, Olave has averaged 5.3 receptions for 68 yards and 0.27 touchdowns, which are high-end WR2 numbers. But that was with the competent Derek Carr at quarterback–the Saints are now looking at starting rookie Tyler Shough, so Olave’s upside depends on how quickly Shough can get up to NFL speed. Olave’s concussion history also gives me pause, since he has five known concussions since 2020.

Skattebo lacks long speed, but he makes up for it with burst (89th percentile) and one of the most productive and well-rounded resumes in this year’s rookie class. He finished second only to Ashton Jeanty in PFF’s rushing grade and became the first FBS player since Christian McCaffrey in 2015 to post at least 1,500 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards in a single season. SNY’s Connor Hughes called Skattebo “a very good receiver out of the backfield” and suggested he “might be the Giants’ most talented receiving back.” With rookie Tyrone Tracy struggling in pass protection, there’s a clear path for Skattebo to earn the third-down role right away—and if his rushing ability translates, he could push for early-down work, too. Tracy started strong last year but faded late, averaging just 3.5 YPC from Week 12 to Week 18, and much of his receiving value in that span may shift to Skattebo. He’ll likely begin the year as a rotational piece, but Skattebo has the three-down skill set to carve out a larger role in short order. He’s an intriguing late-round pick in PPR leagues, especially for drafters using a Zero RB approach.

Tracy finished as the RB28 in 2024, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. He didn’t take over as the Giants’ lead back until Week 5, and from that point forward, he was the fantasy RB14—delivering strong RB2 value for much of the season. His speed and vision made an early impact, and he ranked 9th among 47 qualified backs in yards before contact per attempt, a credit to both his burst and the offensive line. He didn't break many tackles or generate many yards after contact, however. The cracks started to show down the stretch. From Week 12 to Week 18, Tracy averaged just 3.5 yards per carry, and while his receiving work propped up his value during that span, that role could be in jeopardy. The Giants added Cam Skattebo, a dual-threat back who trailed only Ashton Jeanty in PFF’s collegiate rushing grade and has drawn praise as the team’s most talented receiving option out of the backfield. Tracy enters 2025 as the presumptive starter, but Skattebo looms as a serious threat to his workload. Tracy is a viable RB3/FLEX for now, but his grip on the job isn’t as firm as his 2024 finish might suggest.

Spears has shown flashes of explosiveness through his first two seasons, but the volume just hasn’t been there—he averaged 8.9 touches per game in 2023 and 9.5 in 2024, even after Derrick Henry was replaced by Tony Pollard. Despite the limited usage, Spears continues to impress on a per-touch basis, with 2.2 yards after contact per attempt and strong tackle-breaking metrics. He also finished 17th among 59 qualified backs in yards per route run, flashing legitimate receiving chops. Coaches have hinted at a more balanced approach in the backfield this season, which could open the door for Spears to carve out a larger role alongside Pollard. And with rookie quarterback Cam Ward now under center, the Titans’ offense may be more efficient and offer more scoring opportunities than in years past. As long as Pollard is healthy, Spears remains a high-end handcuff and occasional FLEX option. But if Pollard were to miss time, Spears would immediately become a plug-and-play RB2 with upside in both the run and pass game.

It’s put-up or shut-up time for Javonte Williams. Now two full seasons removed from his devastating knee injury, Williams told team reporter Tommy Yarrish that he “feels completely like [him]self” and that the healing process is “done.” That may be true physically, but the numbers suggest otherwise. As a rookie, Williams was a tackle-breaking machine—first in broken tackles per attempt (0.153), with strong marks in both yards before (2.2) and after (2.3) contact per attempt. But in 2024, he averaged just 1.9 yards before contact (20th percentile), 1.8 after contact (20th), and a meager 0.029 broken tackles per attempt (7th). He hasn’t looked like the same explosive runner he was pre-injury. The Cowboys added Miles Sanders in free agency and drafted Jaydon Blue, whose speed and receiving chops could quickly carve out a role. Williams hasn’t been promised anything, but he is getting first-team reps in early practices. He’ll need to fend off multiple challengers to return RB3/flex value, but he has the inside track—for now. Consider him a shaky RB3 with a short leash and limited upside.

Coleman flashed at times during his rookie season, finishing with 32 catches on 64 targets for 578 yards and 4 touchdowns in 13 games. That was good enough for a WR67 finish overall and WR55 on a per-game basis—not terrible for a Day 2 rookie, but not enough to crack starting lineups in most leagues. Coleman’s best trait was his run-after-catch ability. He finished 6th out of 88 qualified receivers in YAC per reception, showcasing surprising elusiveness and physicality with the ball in his hands. However, the rest of his profile was underwhelming—he ranked 75th in contested catch rate and 50th in yards per route run, and struggled to separate or make plays downfield consistently. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception noted that Buffalo used Coleman as a vertical X-receiver in his rookie year and “seem to believe that’s his long-term role,” but also questioned that projection: “There is just nothing in his Reception Perception prospect or rookie year profile that indicates that he will become a high-volume consistent starter in that spot.” Coleman remains an intriguing dynasty stash, but he’ll need a significant jump in efficiency or usage to matter in redraft formats.

Purdy was the QB12 last year but was QB9 on a per-game basis. In 2023, he was the QB6 and QB8 on a per-game basis, so he has settled into low-end QB1 status. He lost Deebo Samuel, who is a weapon, and the 49ers are expecting Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall to pick up the slack. Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle return, so Purdy has plenty of weapons to throw to. The 49ers lost a lot of talent in free agency, especially on the defensive side of the ball, so they may struggle to stop anyone, and that could lead to heavy passing volume for Purdy and Co.

Shaheed was enjoying a breakout campaign as the fantasy WR20 through the first six weeks before suffering a meniscus injury that derailed his season. He should be ready for camp, but his boom-or-bust tendencies from 2024 remain a concern—he posted four games with at least 73 yards and three touchdowns, but also delivered a pair of clunkers with 11 yards or fewer. He offers added value as a threat in the running game, but the quarterback situation is murky and clearly a downgrade from last year, making it harder to trust Shaheed on a weekly basis. After finishing WR47 in 2023, he flashed a higher ceiling before the injury last year, but unless the Saints get more consistent quarterback play, he’s a volatile WR4 best suited for best ball or boom-needy lineups.

Diggs is 31 and coming off a torn ACL that cost him half of the 2024 season. Prior to his injury, he was averaging 62.0 yards per game, his lowest average since his third season in the league, but he was still on pace for his seventh straight 1,000-yard season had he played the full 17 games. Five months after his injury, he is reportedly ahead of schedule and is on track to be ready for the start of the season, which is key for his potential fantasy value. I'm not too alarmed by his 2024 numbers since he was joining a new team (Texans) in a lesser role, but his decline from 2022 (89.3 yards per game) to 2023 (69.6) was significant. As he enters his 11th-season, he's expected to continue a fairly steep drop off per Ryan Heath's excellent Age Curves Study. The one thing working in Diggs' favor, however, is the lack of target competition in New England. Hunter Henry and Demario Douglas led the Patriots with 66 catches apiece, so Diggs should see all the targets he can handle if he can still get open and can hold off rookie Kyle Williams. Per ESPN's Open Score, Diggs was as good (83) last year as he was in 2022 (83). It doesn't hurt that he'll have the up-and-coming Drake Maye throwing the ball, either. Diggs raised some eyebrows this offseason when video leaked of him on a boat holding a bag of pink powder was leaked, so that’s a situation to monitor.

Prescott finished as the fantasy QB4 in 2023, throwing for 4,516 yards and 36 touchdowns against just nine interceptions. Last year, he left a couple of games early and only played eight total games, but he was on pace for 4,638 yards and 25.8 touchdowns. Those numbers would have made him a high-end QB2 type on a per-game basis. The Cowboys attempted the eighth-most passes in 2023 and were third last year. Since last year’s OC, Brian Schottenheimer, is now the head coach, I’m not expecting a huge sea change in the team’s offensive identity, especially since the team let Rico Dowdle walk and traded for George Pickens. Prescott being available as a midrange QB2 is a good example of the solid depth of the position this season.

The Packers broke a long-standing trend by selecting Golden, their first receiver taken in the first round since Javon Walker in 2002. While his underlying metrics—yards per route run and YAC per reception—were middling, Golden brings legit 4.29 speed and a physical edge that Green Bay’s receiving corps has lacked. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception praised Golden’s ability in contested situations, calling him “truly special” and a “sneaky tough downfield wideout with good hands.” That gives him a potential path to fantasy relevance, even if his rookie-year volume is uncertain. Christian Watson is reportedly “ahead of schedule” in his return from an ACL injury, which could complicate Golden’s early-season role. Still, the Packers are clearly high on his skill set. While he may be a better real-life asset early on, Golden has the tools to emerge as a deep threat or contested catch specialist as the year wears on. Consider him a stash with WR4 upside and room to grow.

Downs missed three games last season and finished as the WR38 on a per-game basis, but his outlook for 2025 is far more intriguing than his recent production suggests. He ranked 18th in yards per route run and 23rd in yards after catch per reception—both strong indicators of underlying talent. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception called him “a near superstar player” who offers far more than the typical slot receiver. Harmon believes Downs has the potential to be the focal point of the Colts' passing attack, similar to how the Lions center their offense around Amon-Ra St. Brown. While the quarterback situation remains murky—Anthony Richardson’s health and Daniel Jones’s performance are both question marks—the team should at least have a functional passing game, and Downs’s role is locked in. If it's Jones, we've seen him feed a lesser player, Wan'Dale Robinson, plenty of targets. Downs is being drafted as a low-end WR4, but his route-running prowess and potential target share make him arguably the best upside bet in that range.

Kincaid followed up a promising TE15 rookie campaign with a disappointing sophomore season, finishing as the TE26 overall and TE21 on a per-game basis. He missed a few games, but even when active, his usage took a step back—his yards per game, receptions per game, and catch rate all declined from his rookie year. Despite the underwhelming second season, the ingredients for a breakout remain. Kincaid is an athletic pass-catcher operating in a high-powered offense with Josh Allen at the helm, and there’s still no target-dominating WR1 on the roster. If he can rebound and command consistent volume, he has the tools to emerge as a TE1 option in 2025.

​​The Browns used the No. 36 overall pick on Judkins, signaling their confidence that he can be a foundational piece in their post-Nick Chubb backfield. Since 2010, second-round backs who’ve played at least 14 games have averaged 188 touches for 931 total yards and 5.4 touchdowns as rookies—numbers well within reach for Judkins given the opportunity in Cleveland. With Chubb no longer on the roster, the depth chart is wide open. The Browns also drafted Dylan Sampson in the fourth round, but Judkins’ superior draft capital and athletic profile (92nd percentile speed score, 94th percentile burst score) give him the clear edge heading into camp. He was 9th in PFF’s rushing grade among this year’s rookies and is already regarded as dependable in both pass-catching and pass protection, which should earn him early-down work with potential for more. Judkins could flirt with 250+ touches as a rookie in a run-heavy scheme. He’s a high-upside RB3 with the potential to rise quickly into RB2 territory if he wins the job outright. His July arrest for domestic violence may cause him to miss time, however.

Mims is an intriguing receiver going in the WR5/WR6 range. He’s entering his third season after a strong finish in 2024. From Week 11 to Week 18, he averaged 4.0 receptions for 62 yards and 0.86 touchdowns on 4.7 targets per game. He only played 33% of the snaps in that span, and he isn’t likely to keep up that touchdown production without a bump in snaps, but he deserves to play more. In that span, he had the 18th-highest PFF receiving grade and posted the highest yards per route run (4.54). If his snaps don’t increase, he’s unlikely to become a major fantasy factor, but more playing time could result in fantasy-starter type numbers. Keep an eye on third-rounder Pat Bryant this summer as his progress could impede a potential Mims’ breakout season.

Trying to decipher the Jaguars’ backfield in 2024 was like reading tea leaves. Travis Etienne opened the season as the starter, averaging 14.3 touches and a healthy 4.55 YPC through the first four games. But starting in Week 4, Bigsby began to carve out a role, rushing for 90 yards against the Texans. He followed that with a breakout performance against the Colts in Week 5 (14 touches, 129 yards, 2 TDs) with Etienne active, and then dominated in Week 7 against the Patriots (26 carries, 118 yards, 2 TDs) while Etienne was sidelined with a hamstring injury. Bigsby ultimately averaged 4.6 yards per carry—nearly a full yard more than Etienne (3.7)—though Etienne maintained the passing-down role. The Jags also added Bhayshul Tuten in the fourth round of the draft, a superior athlete who adds yet another variable to this backfield. With Etienne healthy and still involved, and Tuten now in the mix, the Jaguars’ backfield could unfold in several ways. But if Bigsby earns the lion’s share of early-down work and goal-line touches, he’s a viable RB3/FLEX with RB2 upside in the right game scripts.

Egbuka enters the league with a polished profile and a clear runway to early-season snaps if Chris Godwin misses any time. He posted a strong senior season at Ohio State—81 catches for 1,011 yards and eight touchdowns—and finished 27th out of 151 qualified receivers in yards per route run, a strong indicator that his game will translate to the pros. The historical comps are encouraging. Among the 11 first-round receivers drafted in the second half of the round since 2010 who played at least 14 games, the group averaged 58.3-779-5.0. That jumps to 62-879-4.9 if they started at least 10 games, so if Egbuka earns a substantial role early, WR3/WR4 production is in play. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception describes him as “ready-made to be a rock-solid slot-leaning option” with “plenty of production-based upside.” He may not be flashy, but Egbuka’s well-rounded skill set and pro-ready route running make him an intriguing 10th-round pick with a high floor and sneaky upside.

Loveland was the first tight end off the board in April, going No. 10 overall to the Bears—a pick that signals serious intent to make him a key part of the passing game. He averaged 58.2 receiving yards per game as a junior at Michigan and brings 4.72 speed (72nd percentile speed score per Player Profiler) to a position that increasingly rewards athleticism. He’s currently recovering from AC joint surgery, but head coach Ben Johnson said he should be cleared "at some point" during training camp. Despite Cole Kmet's presence (47-474-4 in 2024), drafters aren’t concerned, targeting Loveland as a high-end TE2. Historically, first-round tight ends with full seasons under their belt have averaged 7.3 half-PPR points per game, which puts him squarely in the high-end TE2 conversation if the Bears’ offense takes a step forward. There’s some risk given the injury, Kmet's veteran presence, and rookie tight end learning curve, but Loveland is well-positioned for immediate production.

Likely kicked off 2024 with a bang—posting a 9-111-1 line on 12 targets against the Chiefs in Week 1—but it was an inconsistent season from there. He had four games with double-digit half-PPR points but disappeared in others, a result of sporadic usage in a crowded passing attack. Despite the volatility, Likely's efficiency was impressive. He finished 7th among tight ends in yards per route run—just one spot behind Mark Andrews—and ranked 5th in yards after contact per reception (Andrews was 41st). The Ravens clearly recognize his potential; head coach John Harbaugh challenged him this offseason to “be an All-Pro.” It’s unclear how Baltimore will divvy up tight end targets with a healthy Andrews back, but Likely has shown enough to earn a bigger role. If Harbaugh follows through and the Ravens get creative with two-TE sets, Likely could flirt with low-end TE1 numbers, especially if Andrews were to miss time.

With Jordan Mason traded and Christian McCaffrey looking healthy heading into the season, Guerendo enters 2025 as one of the top handcuff running backs in fantasy football, provided he can hold off fifth-round rookie Jordan James for the RB2 job in San Francisco. Guerendo showed plenty of juice when given the opportunity last year, turning in 75, 102, 99, and 128 total yards in the four games where he played at least 50% of the snaps. He also ripped off 99 yards on just 10 carries in a limited role (26% of snaps) against Seattle in Week 6. He was also efficient as a receiver, posting 1.42 yards per route run—good for the 81st percentile among running backs—which bodes well for his three-down potential if pressed into service. McCaffrey has missed 20 games over the last three seasons, so the path to touches is clearer than it might seem on paper. Pending the camp battle with James, Guerendo is an elite handcuff and a perfect Zero RB target with league-winning upside if McCaffrey were to miss time.

Trying to decipher the Jaguars’ backfield in 2024 was like reading tea leaves. Etienne opened the season as the starter, averaging 14.3 touches and a healthy 4.55 YPC through the first four games. But starting in Week 4, Tank Bigsby began to carve out a role, rushing for 90 yards against the Texans. He followed that with a breakout performance against the Colts in Week 5 (14 touches, 129 yards, 2 TDs) with Etienne active, and then dominated in Week 7 against the Patriots (26 carries, 118 yards, 2 TDs) while Etienne was sidelined with a hamstring injury. Bigsby ultimately averaged 4.6 yards per carry—nearly a full yard more than Etienne (3.7)—though Etienne maintained the passing-down role. The Jags also added Bhayshul Tuten in the fourth round of the draft, a superior athlete who adds yet another variable to this backfield. With Etienne healthy and still involved, and Tuten now in the mix, the Jaguars’ backfield could unfold in several ways.

Stroud suffered a sophomore slump in 2024, finishing as the QB19 with the No. 27 per-game average among quarterbacks. As a rookie, he finished QB12 and had the No. 11 per-game average. It’s pretty common for quarterbacks who thrive as rookies to have a subpar second season now that the rest of the league has plenty of film to figure them out. The Texans lost Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell is unlikely to contribute in 2025, but they did trade for Christian Kirk and added both Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel in the Draft, so Stroud should have enough weapons to throw to, especially with Nico Collins emerging as a star receiver.

Otton has steadily improved in each of his three seasons, culminating in a 47-600-4 campaign in 2024 that resulted in a TE13 finish. While he hasn't delivered any truly dominant stretches, he's carved out a consistent role in a solid offense led by Baker Mayfield, who has quietly played excellent football the past two years. Otton finished 18th in yards after catch per reception and 28th (out of 45 qualifying tight ends) in yards per route run, so while he’s not the most explosive option at the position, he’s efficient enough to maintain mid-range TE2 value with some weekly TE1 upside in favorable matchups.

Last year, three quarterbacks drafted QB20 or later finished in the top 12: Baker Mayfield (QB21), Sam Darnold (QB31), and Bo Nix (QB23). They had a couple of things in common: 1) a strong offensive mind calling the plays, and 2) they can score fantasy points with their legs. Darnold (QB27) can run, but Klint Kubiak is not a certified offensive genius like, say, Kevin O’Connell, who coaxed a QB8 finish out of Darnold last season. That’s why I like QB19 J.J. McCarthy to meet or exceed his draft position. It’s pretty simple: In O’Connell we trust. McCarthy will run a bit and has a nice group of weapons, including Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones.

A by-product of Evan Engram’s departure is that Strange is primed to see a big jump in snaps as he enters his third season. In the eight games that Engram missed, Strange averaged 3.6 catches for 34 yards and 0.25 touchdowns on 4.9 targets per game. The resulting 6.5 (half-PPR) fantasy points per game equate to solid TE2-type numbers. He was tied for 17th in yards per route run among tight ends. The Jags did draft Travis Hunter, but it’s unlikely that he’ll be a full-time player on offense. Christian Kirk (47 targets) and Gabe Davis (42) are also gone, so there are plenty of targets up for grabs in Jacksonville.

Prior to the Draft, this looked like the perfect landing spot for Harris, who has averaged 319 touches per season and has never missed a game. However, the Chargers drafted Omarion Hampton in the first round, giving him the likely edge to lead this backfield in touches. Harris’s efficiency is nothing to write home about--4.0 yards per carry, 27th (out of 46) in yards after contact per attempt, 17th in broken tackles per attempt--but he is a solid dual-threat who can carry the load if necessary.

Henry quietly posted a TE12 finish in 2024, turning 88 targets into a 66-674-2 receiving line. While the arrival of Stefon Diggs and rookie Kyle Williams could squeeze his target share, the Texans' wide receiver room still lacks depth behind Diggs and Williams, so there should be plenty of work left for Henry as a reliable underneath option. Henry enters his age-30 season, but tight ends tend to age well, and he should still have a year or two of productive football left. Drake Maye should take a step forward in his second season, which could lift the entire offense and keep Henry firmly in the low-end TE1 mix. He doesn’t offer huge weekly upside, but his role and red zone usage give him a solid floor in tight end-premium formats.

Allgeier remains one of the most capable backups in the league and a high-end handcuff for fantasy purposes. While Bijan Robinson has proven to be durable, any missed time would immediately vault Allgeier into the RB1/RB2 conversation. He runs with toughness and consistency, finishing 10th in PFF’s rushing grade and posting strong underlying metrics: 6th (of 46 qualified backs) in yards after contact per attempt and 25th in yards before contact per attempt, though his tackle-breaking numbers (34th) weren’t as impressive. In a run-friendly offense helmed by rookie QB Michael Penix, Allgeier should still get some weekly run in a complementary role, but his real value lies in the contingency upside. He’s a must-have handcuff for Bijan drafters and a solid attrition pick in the double-digit rounds for Zero RB builds.

Brown appeared in five games including three playoff games, catching 14-of-28 targets for 141 yards and no touchdowns. He saw 15 targets in his first two games and just 13 in his final three (playoff) games despite his snap percentage increasing from 27%-40% in the regular season to the 65%-73% in the postseason. If Worthy and Rashee Rice are healthy, and Travis Kelce is back, Brown figures to be at best the fourth option in the Kansas City passing game. Rice is likely to be suspended for a few games, and Brown’s value will get a bump while he’s out.

The Browns doubled down at running back in the draft, selecting Quinshon Judkins in the second round and Dylan Sampson in the fourth. This doesn’t exactly come as a ringing endorsement for Jerome Ford despite his stellar 5.4 yards per carry last season. Of the two rookies, Judkins may have the superior athletic profile, but Sampson isn’t far behind—he boasts 4.51 speed and a 66th percentile burst score (per Player Profiler). More importantly, he was fifth in this year’s class in PFF rush grade, four spots ahead of Judkins. Sampson was incredibly productive in 2024, leading the SEC in rushing yards per game (114.7) and rushing touchdowns (22). He runs with urgency and decisiveness, and his resume suggests he could be more than just a change-of-pace option. Given Judkins’ off-field concerns—his July arrest could impact his availability—Sampson could have a real shot to win the starting job outright if he can overtake Ford. He’s a high-upside flier with the potential to return weekly FLEX value early and grow into an RB2 if he takes over this backfield.

Houston waa a good landing spot for Kirk given that Stefon Diggs (free agency) is gone and Tank Dell (knee injury) may not be around in 2025, though the Texans added both Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel in the second and third rounds of the Draft, respectively. Kirk averaged 65+ yards in both 2022 and 2023 before Brian Thomas drank his milkshake last season. He’s still just 28 years old, and could serve as C.J. Stroud’s WR2, though if either or both rookies emerge, Kirk’s role will shrink.

Tagovailoa averaged 17.2 in his 10 non-injury games, but left early and missed seven games thanks to another concussion and a late-season hip injury, so he finished as the fantasy QB20, which is actually pretty impressive considering he missed so much time. He finished QB10 in a full 2023 season, so his per-game production is typically low-end QB1. If he can stay healthy there will likely be some value to be had given his low-end QB2 ADP. That’s a big “if,” however, given that he’s missed 14 games in the last four years and could be one severe concussion away from retirement. That said, given his ADP, he could be a productive member of a quarterback-by-committee strategy.

The 32-year-old Hopkins averaged a career-low 38.1 receiving yards per game. His yards per route run (1.71) was solid (but not great) for a receiver but it was Hopkins' lowest mark since 2016. He can still contribute as a possession receiver, but his days of elite fantasy WR1 (or even WR2) production are likely over, especially playing for the run-oriented Ravens.

Working backward, Smith finished QB15, QB19, and QB6 in the last three seasons. On the plus side, he has thrown for the third-most yardage (12,226), the eighth-most touchdowns (71), and has rushed for the 10th-most yards (793) in the last three seasons combined. He also has the third-most starts (49) in that span, so his solid numbers aren’t entirely surprising. He has a great tight end in Brock Bowers and a solid secondary option in Jakobi Meyers, and the Raiders added Jack Bech and Dont’e Thornton–who tore up minicamp–in the draft. Fantasy-wise, he’ll be in the low-end QB2 mix this summer, but could surprise with a low-end QB1 season.

​​Brown has been sneaky productive over the last three years, especially when he sees big snaps. In his last 23 games with a snap share of at least 70%, Brown has averaged 3.5 catches for 53.1 yards and 0.26 touches. That's a 60-903-4.4 pace over a full, 17-game season. Dyami Brown has moved on, but the Commanders traded for Deebo Samuel, so Brown will be competing for WR3 targets behind Samuel and Terry McLaurin.

Legette turned in disappointing production for a first-round rookie wideout, finishing as the WR64 despite playing in a Carolina offense desperate for playmakers. He saw a decent workload—81 targets—but managed just 49 catches for 497 yards and 4 touchdowns. His 10.1 yards per reception ranked near the bottom among qualifying receivers, and there were few signs of week-to-week consistency. With Tetairoa McMillan arriving via the draft and Adam Thielen still hanging around, it’s hard to see Legette’s role expanding significantly in 2025. Even if the Panthers’ offense improves under new leadership, it looks like Legette is fighting for the WR3 role at best. He’s off the fantasy radar outside of deeper leagues and dynasty formats unless we see a major shift in usage or efficiency.

Thornton is one of the most intriguing boom/bust prospects in this year’s rookie class. At 6'5" with 4.30 speed, he boasts a 100th percentile speed score and the kind of raw athletic profile that immediately turns heads. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception calls him a “pure project,” but early signs from Raiders camp suggest the light may be coming on faster than expected. According to Raiders beat writer Levi Edwards, Thornton "has already become a top target" for Geno Smith and is using "his acceleration to create separation consistently.” The Athletic’s Tashan Reed also noted that Thornton “stood out the most among the group during OTAs,” which is especially encouraging given the logjam of unproven talent in Vegas. While Thornton’s development curve may still be steep, his unique size/speed combo paired with early camp momentum makes him an exciting late-round dart throw. If he earns significant snaps, WR3/WR4 numbers are possible as the third or fourth option in Vegas.

Slayton has had his moments, especially prior to the arrival of Malik Nabers, but he's at best the third option behind Nabers and Wan'Dale Robinson in what's been a bad passing attack. Barring an injury to one of the Giants' top two receivers, it's unlikely that Slayton holds much fantasy value in 2025.