Top 200 Value Based Rankings

Barkley finished as the fantasy RB1 in 2024, racking up 2,005 rushing yards, 278 receiving yards, and 15 total touchdowns while averaging 21.2 half-PPR points per game. He was the engine of the Eagles’ offense, handling a massive workload with little competition for touches. With Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith still in place, the unit remains dangerous and should continue to generate scoring opportunities. Barkley’s elite volume and goal-line role make him one of the safest picks in fantasy, and if the offense takes a step forward in 2025, he has a real shot to repeat as the overall RB1.

Gibbs finished as the RB3 in half-PPR in 2024, piling up 1,412 rushing yards, 517 receiving yards, and 20 total touchdowns while averaging 18.3 fantasy points per game. In the three games that David Montgomery missed, Gibbs exploded for 30.4 fantasy points per game, but he still averaged a rock-solid 17.6 in the 14 games they played together—proof that he doesn't need a full workload to deliver elite production. The Lions will have a new playcaller in 2025 after Ben Johnson took a head coaching job, which introduces a bit of uncertainty, but the offense still projects to be one of the league’s best with Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and an elite offensive line in place. Gibbs is a high-floor, high-ceiling RB1 and a worthy first-round pick in all formats.

Henry rushed for nearly 2,000 yards (1,921), and scored 18 total touchdowns. He should continue to defy Father Time, at least for one more season, probably more. He looked great last year, posting the highest yards after contact per attempt (2.8), the fourth-highest yards before contact per attempt (3.1) and the most broken tackles per attempt (0.13). He also posted the highest run grade (93.5) at PFF.

In his final collegiate season, Jeanty racked up 2,739 total yards and 30 touchdowns for Boise State. His receiving numbers (23-238-1) were modest, but he was far more utilized as a receiver in the previous season (43-569-5), so he has the receiving chops to be a dual-threat in the NFL. The Raiders struggled to run the ball last year (3.6 YPC as a team), and Jeanty should vastly improve the team's per carry and overall production. He's a dual threat and should see a bell cow workload, so he's a threat for fantasy RB1 numbers from the get-go. The only knocks on his game appear to be his shaky pass protection and suspect ball security. The former might impact his snaps if the Raiders elect to pull him out on obvious passing downs. Regardless, I’m expecting a huge workload, and that should lead to RB1 fantasy production. Follow the touches.

After an injury-shortened 2023, Jefferson returned to form in 2024, finishing as the overall WR2 in both total points and per-game average. Jefferson racked up 108 receptions on 158 targets for 1,591 yards and 10 touchdowns, serving once again as the centerpiece of Kevin O’Connell’s offense. He continued to dominate efficiency metrics, finishing 7th in yards per route run among 88 qualified receivers. His route-running, separation, and body control remain elite, and the only real question mark entering 2025 is the quarterback change. J.J. McCarthy will likely face growing pains, but “In Kevin O’Connell We Trust”—this is still one of the more receiver- and quarterback-friendly systems in the league. With elite volume, proven talent, and a coaching staff that knows how to feed its alpha, Jefferson remains a top-two fantasy receiver and a safe first-round pick.

Malik Nabers posted a stellar rookie campaign, finishing as the fantasy WR7 in half-PPR formats despite subpar quarterback play. He hauled in 109 of 165 targets for 1,204 yards and seven touchdowns, showing immediate chemistry with whoever was under center for the Giants. Fortunately, his situation should improve in 2025, with Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, and Jaxson Dart all in the quarterback room—each an upgrade over last year’s options. Nabers’ underlying metrics reinforce his top-tier production. His 2.17 yards per route run ranked 21st out of 88 qualified receivers. However, he ranked just 56th in contested catch rate (46.2%) and 33rd in YAC per reception (4.4), so there’s still room to grow. With his elite route-running (87.1 PFF grade) and massive 165-target workload, Nabers is already one of the most productive fantasy receivers in the league. A step forward in efficiency—paired with better quarterback play—could push him into the uber-elite WR1 tier.

Irving finished RB16 on the year, so uninformed drafters may view him as a fantasy RB2, but he’s a clear, rock-solid RB1 in my book thanks to his productivity after the first month of the season. He started seeing more touches in Week 6, and from that point on, he was the fantasy RB8. He had the fourth-highest PFF rush grade in that span, and was fifth in yards after contact per attempt on the season. HC Todd Bowles told The Athletic that he “expects greatness” and that Irving’s “opportunities are likely to increase substantially.” He’s a baller and has a great future ahead of him.

After leading the league in rushing in 2022 with 1,653 yards, Jacobs missed four games in 2023 and ultimately signed with the Packers last spring. He finished as the fantasy RB5 overall with 337 touches for 1,671 total yards and 16 touchdowns. At 27 years old, he’s still in his prime and now entrenched as the lead back in a high-scoring Packers offense orchestrated by Matt LaFleur. He ranked just 32nd in yards before contact per attempt among 46 qualified backs, but he more than made up for it with elite tackle-breaking and post-contact production. He was 8th in yards after contact per attempt, 3rd in broken tackles per attempt, and earned the 5th-highest rushing grade at PFF. That kind of efficiency, paired with a huge workload and goal-line role in a top-tier offense, makes Jacobs a rock-solid RB1. He's a dual threat with dependable volume and a nose for the end zone.

He’s 25 years old, finished as the RB6 last season, and was third in touches per game (21.9). He was undervalued last year after the Rams drafted Blake Corum, and he appears to be undervalued again this season. The only thing that gives me pause about the 24-year-old Williams is his propensity to fumble the ball. He had five fumbles last year and three the year before, but in the season after the Rams drafted Corum, Williams handled a career-high 350 touches for 1,481 total yards and 16 touchdowns. Corum only averaged 3.6 yards per carry, so he didn’t do anything to justify a lead-back role in 2025.

Bowers had a terrific rookie campaign, finishing with 112 catches for 1,194 yards and five touchdowns on a whopping 153 targets. The stars aligned early, with Davante Adams traded away and Michael Mayer missing significant time, clearing the runway for Bowers to immediately become the focal point of the Raiders’ passing attack. He handled the volume with ease, showcasing the athleticism and route-running prowess that made him a generational tight end prospect coming out of Georgia. With Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews now in the twilight of their careers, Bowers enters 2025 with a strong case to be the fantasy TE1. He offers elite volume, consistency, and a high floor typically reserved for top-tier wideouts. The arrival of Geno Smith should also provide a boost in quarterback play, potentially improving Bowers' efficiency after a solid (but not spectacular) rookie-season catch rate of 73.2%. In a thinning elite tight end landscape, Bowers stands out as a weekly advantage and should be a second-round pick in most formats. In TE-premium, he's a surefire first-rounder.

Working backward, Allen has finished QB2, QB1, QB2, and QB1 in the last four seasons. He’s done it with a plethora of different receivers, and he has a decent crew to throw to again this season. Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Dalton Kincaid, and Dawson Knox are all back, and the Bills added Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore to the mix. I’m expecting another high-end season for Allen.

After finishing as the WR6 in his breakout rookie campaign, Nacua delivered another strong season in 2024, finishing WR23 overall but WR6 on a per-game basis. He once again proved to be a monster in advanced metrics—1st in yards per route run and 14th in YAC per reception (among 110 qualified receivers). With Cooper Kupp finally out of the picture, Davante Adams steps in, but Nacua is already entrenched as a target hog in Sean McVay’s offense. There’s continuity with Matthew Stafford under center and no major red flags in terms of usage or efficiency. Nacua should be considered a midrange WR1 with weekly top-5 upside, especially in PPR formats.

After a slow start to his career, London finally delivered on his first-round draft pedigree, finishing as the WR9 in 2024. The third-year breakout was fueled in part by a promising connection with rookie quarterback Michael Penix, who targeted London on an outrageous 39.1% of his pass attempts. London turned those looks into 22 catches for 352 yards and two touchdowns in just under three games of action. While his YAC per reception (80th among 110 qualified receivers) leaves something to be desired, London’s route-running chops are undeniable—he ranked 12th in yards per route run, a key indicator of individual efficiency. With Penix under center and the Falcons’ offense trending upward, London looks like a locked-in WR1 with room to climb.

Cook finally found the end zone in 2024—after scoring just four rushing touchdowns across his first two seasons, he punched in 16 on the ground last year, propelling him to an RB8 finish in half-PPR formats. While that spike in touchdowns was a welcome development for fantasy managers, some regression is likely in 2025, especially with Josh Allen still handling a healthy share of goal-line work. Cook was solid across the board as a runner, ranking 12th in yards before contact, 14th in yards after contact, and 24th in broken tackles per attempt among 46 qualified backs. He remains a key piece of a high-scoring Buffalo offense that should continue to give him plenty of scoring opportunities, even if last year’s touchdown rate proves unsustainable. He’s currently seeking a contract extension but showed good faith by attending the team’s mandatory minicamp. Cook enters 2025 as a rock-solid RB2 with upside in an explosive offense—just don’t count on another 16 rushing scores.

My top quarterback target in last year’s fantasy drafts didn’t disappoint, finishing QB4 after being drafted in the QB10-QB12 range all summer. This year, he’ll have another weapon to throw to thanks to the Commanders’ trade for Deebo Samuel. The Commanders also drafted Jaylin Lane in the fourth round to shore up the team’s WR depth.

McBride followed up his 2023 breakout with another highly productive season, catching 111 passes for 1,146 yards in Year 3. While he only scored two touchdowns—bringing his career total to just six on 292 receptions—his elite target share and efficiency keep him firmly in the top tier of fantasy tight ends. He finished third among all tight ends in yards per route run (2.14), just ahead of Brock Bowers, and continues to operate as Kyler Murray’s most trusted target in the Cardinals' passing game. Arizona still lacks serious firepower at wide receiver, which solidifies McBride’s weekly usage. While the lack of touchdowns is frustrating, he’s essentially functioning as a high-floor WR2 from the tight end slot in half- and full-PPR formats. The hope is that positive regression hits in the red zone, and if it does, he has the potential to finish as the overall TE1.

Hampton was the second running back off the board in the 2025 NFL Draft, landing with the Chargers late in the first round. Historically, that’s a promising signal—since 2010, running backs drafted in the back half of the first round who played at least 14 games have averaged 234 touches for 1,160 total yards and 6.7 touchdowns as rookies. The Chargers also signed Najee Harris, so a committee could emerge, but Hampton—armed with first-round draft capital and superior athletic traits—has the inside track to lead the backfield in touches. His closest comp on Player Profiler is Jonathan Taylor, and it’s easy to see why: 4.46 speed, a 94th percentile speed score, and 91st percentile burst. He also earned the 7th-highest PFF rushing grade in this year’s class, and he showed three-down capability with 38 catches for 373 yards and two scores as a junior. With head coach Jim Harbaugh expected to continue to lean on the run game, Hampton could push for 260+ touches as a rookie. If he seizes goal-line work and maintains a passing-game role, he’ll offer midrange RB2 value right away—with room for more if Harris fades into a complementary role.

In a bit of a surprise, the Panthers signed Rico Dowdle in free agency. Last year, Dowdle and Hubbard both averaged 2.2 yards after contact per attempt, while Hubbard had the advantage in broken tackles (17.9 att/broken tackle vs. 21.4 att/broken tackle for Dowdle) and PFF rush grade (86.3 vs. 74.4). Hubbard handled 73.1% of the team's backfield carries and 60.6% of the receptions. With a healthy Dowdle in the mix, I could see those shares being closer to 65% of the carries and 50% of the receptions. That being said, Miles Sanders fared a lot better as a receiver than Hubbard did (6.2 YPR vs. 4.0 YPR) yet Hubbard nearly doubled Sanders in receptions (43 to 24), so Hubbard's backfield shares may depend mostly on his playing time versus specific roles for him and Dowdle.

Smith-Njigba took a massive leap in his second season, finishing as the WR8 after a modest WR46 rookie campaign. JSN seized a featured role in the Seahawks’ passing attack, posting 100 catches for 1,130 yards and six touchdowns. His efficiency was solid as well—he ranked 38th in yards per route run and 35th in YAC per reception (among 110 qualified receivers), both above average marks that reflect his route polish and ability after the catch. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are both gone, and Cooper Kupp joins the receiver room, but at this stage of his career, he doesn’t profile as the high-volume option he once was. JSN should lead the way in targets, and with Sam Darnold under center, the passing offense should remain steady. There’s enough passing volume in Klint Kubiak's system to support another high-end WR2 season—or possibly a repeat WR1 finish.

Evans posted his 11th straight 1,000-yard season in 2024, finishing as the WR11 overall and WR9 on a per-game basis. He was the WR4 the year prior, and despite turning 32 in August, he’s shown virtually no signs of decline—he finished 5th among 110 qualified receivers in yards per route run. Evans continues to win with physicality, contested catch ability, and elite route nuance, and he remains the focal point of a passing attack led by a rejuvenated Baker Mayfield. While Father Time is always lurking, Evans’ continued dominance suggests he’s not ready to hand over the keys just yet. His age may scare off some drafters, but he’s been one of the most reliable fantasy receivers over the last decade. As long as he and Mayfield stay healthy, Evans should remain a weekly WR1/WR2 option in 2025.

Expectations were sky high for Harrison heading into his rookie campaign, but he finished as the WR32 in total points and WR43 on a per-game basis. While the box score didn’t reflect the fantasy breakout many predicted, Matt Harmon of Reception Perception believes Harrison “had a good rookie season,” citing route nuance and technical polish that didn’t always translate due to schematic and quarterback limitations. Harmon added that for Harrison to take the next step, the Cardinals need to “mix up his deployment,” while Harrison himself needs to improve “in tight coverage and working back to the quarterback.” The advanced data backs up that assessment. Among 88 qualified receivers, Harrison ranked 66th in contested catch rate, 81st in YAC per reception, and 44th in yards per route run. He caught 62 of 114 targets for 885 yards and 8 touchdowns—solid numbers, but underwhelming given his pedigree and opportunity. With a full offseason under his belt, a year of NFL experience, and the hope of improved quarterback play, Harrison should be positioned for a Year 2 leap. He remains a high-end talent who profiles as the team’s long-term WR1, but his 2025 fantasy value hinges on whether Arizona can create a more dynamic passing attack to unlock his ceiling.

After four straight years with 1,000+ yards and five or fewer touchdowns, McLaurin finally delivered a true breakout season--82 catches, 1,096 yards, and 13 touchdowns--finishing as the WR6 overall thanks in large part to Jayden Daniels’ impressive rookie campaign. On a per-game basis, he was the WR16, so he did benefit from playing a full slate. McLaurin finished 30th (of 112 qualifiers) in yards per route run, and while that’s not elite, it’s a solid mark for a player who has long produced despite questionable quarterback play. Turning 30 in September, McLaurin could see his target share squeezed a bit with Deebo Samuel joining the fold, but his biggest obstacle might be his contract situation. He said he’s “pretty frustrated” with the lack of progress in negotiations and that “it’s hard to see me stepping on the field” without progress towards a new deal. If things get resolved, McLaurin should slot in as a low-end WR2 with upside, assuming the offense keeps humming.

Conner continues to produce at a high level, finishing as the fantasy RB10 in 2024 after an RB15 per-game finish the year prior. Now entering his age-30 season, he’s still getting it done with outstanding efficiency—among 46 qualified backs, he ranked 9th in yards after contact per attempt, 5th in broken tackles per attempt, and earned the 8th-highest rushing grade at PFF. Despite his physical running style, he’s showing no signs of slowing down just yet. That said, the Cardinals may be preparing to ease his workload. Rookie Trey Benson is waiting in the wings, and head coach Jonathan Gannon recently said, “If [Trey] takes the necessary jump from Year 1 to Year 2, I think we have two starting backs.” That could signal a shift toward more of a timeshare in 2025, especially with Conner entering a more injury-prone phase of his career. Conner’s still a strong, tackle-breaking runner in an offense that looked improved with Kyler Murray back under center. He’s best viewed as a mid-range RB2 with some RB1 weeks in his range, though his age and Benson’s presence add some risk to his season-long volume.

Montgomery continues to be a reliable fantasy option in Detroit’s high-powered offense, finishing as the RB17 in 2024 despite missing three games—he was the RB13 on a per-game basis. That followed a strong 2023 campaign where he finished RB14 overall and RB8 in per-game scoring. As Jahmyr Gibbs' role grew, Montgomery’s touches dipped slightly from 16.8 per game in 2023 to 15.8 in 2024, but he made up for it with a larger receiving role—jumping from 16 receptions to 36 year-over-year. Efficiency-wise, he remains a tough, physical runner: he ranked 36th in yards before contact but 15th in yards after contact and 4th in broken tackles per attempt. His 16th-place PFF rushing grade was solid, reinforcing his reputation as an above-average grinder who can get the tough yards and score touchdowns. Montgomery’s weekly upside is somewhat TD-dependent, but his consistent workload and role near the goal line make him a dependable RB2, even as Gibbs becomes the flashier fantasy asset.

LaPorta’s steep decline in targets per game (7.1 to 5.2) in his second season was surprising, as Jameson Williams (91 targets) took over as the team’s No. 2 target. LaPorta will likely settle in as a perennial top 5 fantasy tight end, but perhaps lacks the overall TE1 target upside with a healthy Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown in the mix. Among tight ends, he finished 11th in YAC/rec and 12th in yards per route run, so the efficiency was there. He finished strong, seeing at least six targets in his final eight games and was the TE5 in that span. Hopefully, we’ll look back on his early-season struggles as just a blip in his career as a fantasy producer.

Worthy’s role grew steadily in the second half of the season. From Week 11 to Week 17, he averaged 5.6-56-0.43 on 7.9 targets per game. He added 9.6 yards and 0.14 rush touchdowns in that span. In three playoff games, he racked up 19 catches for 287 yards and three scores on 7.0 targets per game. He was 9th in yards after the catch per reception. Rashee Rice is back and healthy, but may be facing a multi-game suspension after his court case came to a close in mid-July. Worthy’s value gets a bump if Rice misses time, as expected.

Smith followed up a WR18 campaign in 2023 with a WR24 finish last season, though he was WR17 on a per-game basis. He continues to shine as one of the league’s premier route-runners and posted above-average marks in both yards per route run (29th) and YAC per reception (44th). Smith is a rock-solid WR2 with weekly upside, but his ceiling remains capped in Philadelphia’s run-leaning offense. A.J. Brown is going to get his targets, and as long as he's healthy, Smith will be fighting for volume in a crowded attack. If Brown were to miss time, Smith has already shown that he can produce top-10 numbers with expanded opportunity. In the meantime, drafters should continue to view him as a high-floor, low-WR2 with room to spike if the situation breaks in his favor.

The Steelers spent a third-round pick on Johnson, and while rookie running backs in this range often have limited Year 1 roles, there’s room for meaningful production. Since 2010, third-round backs who played at least 14 games have averaged 145 touches for 730 total yards and 4.8 touchdowns—a useful baseline for Johnson’s 2025 outlook. He’ll split time with Jaylen Warren, who averaged 10.5 touches per game last year behind Najee Harris (17.6). How much more the Steelers are willing to put on Warren’s plate will ultimately determine Johnson’s weekly fantasy value. He’s likely to handle goal-line duties, which gives him sneaky touchdown upside in what could be a more balanced, efficient offense under offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, though Aaron Rodgers will have something to say about that. Johnson was an instinctive zone runner in college and finished 15th out of 67 backs in PFF rush grade among those with 100+ carries. He’s also a capable pass-catcher (22 receptions, 188 yards, 2 TDs as a junior) and showed more functional quickness on tape than he did in Combine testing. If he carves out 10–12 touches per game with red zone work, he could be a flex-worthy option with upside in deeper formats. If he fully assumes Harris's role, then RB2 numbers are well within reach.

Sutton turned in a WR15 finish last year, buoyed by Bo Nix’s unexpectedly strong rookie campaign and a continued lack of serious target competition in Denver. Sutton was 32nd in yards per route run—an above-average mark—but remained near the bottom of the league in YAC/rec, underscoring his role as more of a contested-catch, sideline-winning presence than a post-catch dynamo. The Broncos did add Evan Engram in free agency and Pat Bryant in the draft, and Marvin Mims could take a step forward in Year 3 after a strong finish last season, but Sutton should once again be Nix’s go-to guy on the outside. His profile suggests another solid WR2 season is within reach, though his weekly ceiling may be capped if Mims or Engram emerge as more dynamic after-the-catch options.

Pollard was the fantasy RB21 last season. He did benefit from the absence of Tyjae Spears, who missed a few games. Pollard’s workload increased from 16.4 touches per game with Spears to 24.2 touches in the five games that Spears missed. The arrival of Cam Ward should help the Titans’ offense and, in turn, Pollard’s touchdown prospects. He looks more like a low-end RB2 than his midrange RB3 ADP would indicate.

Ridley followed up a WR24 season with the Jaguars in 2023 by finishing WR29 with the Titans last year, a respectable but unspectacular showing given the volatility in Tennessee's offense. He now enters his second season with the team as the clear favorite for WR1 duties. Despite the additions of Tyler Lockett and Van Jefferson, Ridley faces minimal target competition, and he should benefit from the arrival of rookie quarterback Cam Ward, who brings much-needed juice to the passing game. Ridley posted an above-average 35th-place finish (among 112 qualifiers) in yards per route run and continues to be a reliable technician, though his YAC/rec numbers were middling. He’s unlikely to regain the elite form he showed in Atlanta a few years ago, but with a projected uptick in passing efficiency and volume, he’s a solid WR3 with WR2 upside in 2025 drafts.

McMillan was taken No. 8 overall in April’s draft, and history tells us that receivers picked this high generally produce right away. Among first-round wideouts selected inside the top 16 who played at least 14 games, the average rookie season is 67-952-5.7—solid WR4 numbers. Narrow that to those who started at least 12 games, and the average jumps to 72-1022-6.5, which is fantasy WR3 territory. McMillan’s advanced metrics back up the hype—he posted the 10th-highest receiving grade at PFF and ranked 13th in yards per route run in this year’s class. Matt Harmon compared his profile to that of Michael Pittman or Courtland Sutton, noting that while he’s not quite Drake London, McMillan still offers versatility and size as a perimeter option who can move around. The wild card here is Bryce Young. He needs a lifeline, and the Panthers are hoping McMillan can be that guy. If he starts most games, he should push for low-end WR3 numbers with upside for more if Young takes a step forward.

Over the past two seasons, Mahomes has finished QB7 (2023) and QB10 (2024) after three straight top-4 finishes in 2020-22. He seems to be settling into midrange QB1 territory, but we know he has overall QB1 upside. Rashee Rice is back, which helps, especially given the apparent decline of Mahomes’ go-to target, Travis Kelce. Xavier Worthy is a weapon, and Hollywood Brown rounds out a good starting receiving unit. Mahomes’ touchdown percentage and passing volume are both down relative to his fantasy hayday, and that’s not a recipe for an elite-level finish.

Hunter enters the league as a unique prospect—an elite two-way talent who may not be a full-time receiver if he carves out a significant role on defense. Still, The Athletic’s Jacob Robinson reports to “expect an offense-heavy start,” suggesting the team plans to use him primarily at wideout, at least early on. Hunter was the first receiver off the board in the draft, and the five receivers selected inside the top 5 since 2010 who played at least 15 games averaged 69 catches for 1,086 yards and 7.4 touchdowns—essentially WR2 production. Matt Harmon charted Hunter with the rare "all green" route tree, calling him “without a doubt” the best receiver prospect in the class and someone with “all the calling cards of a future star No. 1 wide receiver.” If his snaps on offense are consistent, Hunter has the talent and draft capital to produce right away. His role is the key variable, but there's top-20 upside if he sees regular usage.

Rice picked up right where he left off in 2023, starting the 2024 season on a tear with 7-103, 5-75-1, and 12-110-1 lines before tearing his right LCL just four snaps into Week 4. Setting aside that injury-shortened game, he has averaged 5.4 catches for 64.5 yards and 0.47 touchdowns on 6.9 targets per game in his career—solid WR2 production. Through three full games last season, he was on a 164-target pace. That workload may be harder to come by in 2025. Xavier Worthy didn’t really emerge until after Rice’s injury, and the rookie’s speed could force a more even distribution of targets. Rice is reportedly fully healthy but is facing a multi-game suspension (per Adam Schefter) after pleading guilty to two third-degree felonies. He was sentenced to five years of probation and 30 days in jail. Depending on how far his ADP falls, Rice could become a value since he’s already shown he can produce at a high level in this offense.

Robinson finished as the RB21 last season, but his week-to-week workload largely hinged on Austin Ekeler’s availability. In five games without Ekeler, Robinson averaged 18.4 touches per game—strong RB2 volume. In the nine games they played together, that number dropped to 12.8 touches, pushing Robinson into low-end FLEX territory most weeks. Durability is another concern—he’s missed 10 games over his first three seasons, and his bruising running style hasn’t exactly helped his longevity. With Deebo Samuel now in the mix and potentially siphoning off a handful of carries on gadget plays, Robinson’s weekly ceiling is even more capped in what could be a crowded, unpredictable backfield. Unless Ekeler goes down again, Robinson profiles as a low-ceiling, touchdown-dependent RB3. He’s a viable depth piece in best ball or deeper formats, but tough to trust for consistent starting value in traditional leagues.

The Bears’ offense is trending up with the arrival of new HC Ben Johnson, who spent the last several years as the primary playcaller for the Detroit Lions. Keenan Allen (121 targets) is gone, and the Bears drafted Luther Burden in the second round as a replacement. Odunze caught 54 passes on 96 targets for 734 yards and 3 touchdowns as a rookie. While his 73rd-ranked yards per route run (among 88 qualified receivers) suggests he has room to grow in overall efficiency, he was elite in contested catch rate (2nd) and solid after the catch (29th in YAC per reception). With Allen gone, Odunze is primed to make a Jameson Williams-type leap in his second season and could perhaps surpass D.J. Moore to become the team’s primary target. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception says that his charting of Odunze “is still pointing us in an extremely positive direction.” With a growing role in what should be a much more productive offense, Odunze is a strong candidate to outproduce his low-end WR3 ADP.

Waddle took a step back in 2024, averaging just 4.1 catches for 58 yards and 0.20 touchdowns on 5.3 targets in 10 games with Tua Tagovailoa—production that landed him in WR4 territory on a per-game basis. That’s a far cry from the high-end WR2 output he posted in 2022-23, when he averaged 4.8 catches for 79 yards and 0.44 touchdowns in 27 games with Tagovailoa. The question heading into 2025 is whether Waddle can recapture that earlier chemistry. His talent remains undeniable, but the Dolphins’ passing game cooled off last season, and with Tyreek Hill recovering from offseason surgeries, defenses may focus more attention on Waddle. He has the skill set to bounce back, but fantasy managers drafting him as a WR3 are betting on a return to form that’s no longer guaranteed.

Nix finished QB9 on the season, but after a rough start, he was the fantasy QB5 from Week 5 on. He has dual-threat ability and scored at least 16.1 fantasy points in 10 of his last 13 games. “Good” rookie quarterbacks tend to regress a bit in year two–fantasy points drop on average by 6.3%– but the Broncos added Evan Engram in free agency and two receiving weapons–second-round RB RJ Harvey and third-round WR Pat Bryant–in the Draft, and that could offset a sophomore regression.

Tracy finished as the RB28 in 2024, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. He didn’t take over as the Giants’ lead back until Week 5, and from that point forward, he was the fantasy RB14—delivering strong RB2 value for much of the season. His speed and vision made an early impact, and he ranked 9th among 47 qualified backs in yards before contact per attempt, a credit to both his burst and the offensive line. He didn't break many tackles or generate many yards after contact, however. The cracks started to show down the stretch. From Week 12 to Week 18, Tracy averaged just 3.5 yards per carry, and while his receiving work propped up his value during that span, that role could be in jeopardy. The Giants added Cam Skattebo, a dual-threat back who trailed only Ashton Jeanty in PFF’s collegiate rushing grade and has already drawn praise as the team’s most talented receiving option out of the backfield. Tracy enters 2025 as the presumptive starter, and beat writer Jordan Raanan confirmed that it is “100%” the case, but Skattebo looms as a serious threat to his workload. Tracy is a viable RB3/FLEX for now, but his grip on the job isn’t as firm as his 2024 finish might suggest.

Njoku missed six games in 2024 and has missed 11 games in the last four years. Otherwise, he’s been a great fantasy asset in Cleveland despite some suspect quarterback play. He was the TE5 on a per-game basis in 2024 while garnering the third-most targets per game (8.8) at his position. One way or another, I expect the QB play in Cleveland to improve, and that should benefit Njoku along with everyone else.

Jennings was 14th in yards per route run (per PFF). Deebo Samuel is gone and Brandon Aiyuk is recovering from a torn ACL/MCL isn’t expected to play until midseason. Jennings has proven to be a rock-solid option for Brock Purdy and actually performed a bit better with Aiyuk in the lineup last season, so I’m not worried about the timing of Aiyuk’s return. He also outscored Aiyuk 10.8 to 7.8 in the six non-injury games they played together. In the five games that both Samuel and Aiyuk played, Jennings averaged 2.8 catches on 46 yards and zero touchdowns on 4.8 targets per game. In the 10 games that either (or both) Samuel and Aiyuk missed, Jennings averaged 6.3 catches for 75 yards and 0.6 touchdowns on 8.9 targets per game. Those are low-end WR1 numbers, folks. Looking at the last two seasons, when Jennings has played at least 70% of the snaps, he has averaged 5.3 catches (on 7.6 targets) for 66 yards and 0.50 touchdowns per game. That works out to 12.2 fantasy points per game, or low-end WR2 numbers. Jennings has slid down the projections this summer thanks to a nagging calf injury, but if he can get that sorted by Week 1, he should return good value at his ADP.

He finished TE8 in his second season and is primed for another leap in production if he can earn a larger role in the offense. But that’s the problem with drafting Packer receivers–Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love spread the ball around so much it’s tough to count on anyone in a given week. But Kraft led the position in yards after contact and broken tackles per catch, so he’s got the talent to join the top 5. He should finish TE8 again at a minimum, barring injury. LaFleur agrees, saying, “if there’s an area we gotta do a better job on, I would say featuring the tight end.”

Murray finished as the QB11 last year after a seven-game, QB26 finish the year before. (He was QB10 on a per-game basis in 2023.) Last year, he played a full season after missing 18 games in his previous three seasons. He’s a good fantasy asset thanks to his quickness, speed, and ability to run the ball. He has averaged 30+ yards rushing in four straight seasons and has 16 rushing touchdowns in that span.

Pearsall had an interesting rookie season, to say the least. He suffered a gunshot wound in early September, so he missed the first six games of the season. Once he returned, he immediately saw playing time in Weeks 7-8 since Jauan Jennings was sidelined for both games and Brandon Aiyuk missed the second game. With Aiyuk out, and both Jennings and Deebo Samuel active from Week 10 to Week 17, Pearsall saw a 64% snap share and had a couple of good games–4-73-1 against the Bucs and 8-141-1 against the Lions–but also posted three goose eggs and failed to crest 40 yards receiving in the other three games in that span. With Samuel out Week 18, Pearsall posted 6-69-1 on eight targets alongside Jennings, who posted 7-52 on 10 targets. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception wrote that Pearsall’s rookie season was “incredibly encouraging” and the final four games were “outright awesome.” Pearsall has a chance to carve out a large role in an offense that will need him to produce, especially early in the season. Aiyuk is likely to miss a few games, at least, as he recovers from a torn ACL/MCL in October, so Pearsall should see all the snaps he can handle in September.

Diggs is 31 and coming off a torn ACL that cost him half of the 2024 season. Prior to his injury, he was averaging 62.0 yards per game, his lowest average since his third season in the league, but he was still on pace for his seventh straight 1,000-yard season had he played the full 17 games. Five months after his injury, he is reportedly ahead of schedule and is on track to be ready for the start of the season, which is key for his potential fantasy value. I'm not too alarmed by his 2024 numbers since he was joining a new team (Texans) in a lesser role, but his decline from 2022 (89.3 yards per game) to 2023 (69.6) was significant. As he enters his 11th-season, he's expected to continue a fairly steep drop off per Ryan Heath's excellent Age Curves Study. The one thing working in Diggs' favor, however, is the lack of target competition in New England. Hunter Henry and Demario Douglas led the Patriots with 66 catches apiece, so Diggs should see all the targets he can handle if he can still get open and can hold off rookie Kyle Williams. Per ESPN's Open Score, Diggs was as good (83) last year as he was in 2022 (83). It doesn't hurt that he'll have the up-and-coming Drake Maye throwing the ball, either. Diggs raised some eyebrows this offseason when video leaked of him on a boat holding a bag of pink powder was leaked, so that’s a situation to monitor.

The Seahawks cut Tyler Lockett and traded DK Metcalf away so they had some work to do at receiver. Kupp has ties to the area and should soak up plenty of targets playing alongside Jaxon Smith-Njigba, though both players typically line up in the slot (Smith-Njigba 83.6%, Kupp 65.3% last year). Kupp is not the type of player I'd pick to join JSN in the offense, but he can certainly teach the third-year player a thing or two. Kupp averaged 1.88 yards per route run last year, which was well off his career average (2.25), but still above average league-wide and better than JSN's mark (1.81). Kupp's arrival makes Sam Darnold more appealing as a QB2-type.

Prior to missing the second half of the season with a concussion, Olave had his ups and downs, gaining 80+ yards in four of his six healthy games while failing to reach 12 yards in the other two games. In those six healthy games and in 2023, Olave has averaged 5.3 receptions for 68 yards and 0.27 touchdowns, which are high-end WR2 numbers. But that was with the competent Derek Carr at quarterback–the Saints are now looking at starting rookie Tyler Shough, so Olave’s upside depends on how quickly Shough can get up to NFL speed. Olave’s concussion history also gives me pause, since he has five known concussions since 2020.

Trying to decipher the Jaguars’ backfield in 2024 was like reading tea leaves. Travis Etienne opened the season as the starter, averaging 14.3 touches and a healthy 4.55 YPC through the first four games. But starting in Week 4, Bigsby began to carve out a role, rushing for 90 yards against the Texans. He followed that with a breakout performance against the Colts in Week 5 (14 touches, 129 yards, 2 TDs) with Etienne active, and then dominated in Week 7 against the Patriots (26 carries, 118 yards, 2 TDs) while Etienne was sidelined with a hamstring injury. Bigsby ultimately averaged 4.6 yards per carry—nearly a full yard more than Etienne (3.7)—though Etienne maintained the passing-down role. The Jags also added Bhayshul Tuten in the fourth round of the draft, a superior athlete who adds yet another variable to this backfield. With Etienne healthy and still involved, and Tuten now in the mix, the Jaguars’ backfield could unfold in several ways. But if Bigsby earns the lion’s share of early-down work and goal-line touches, he’s a viable RB3/FLEX with RB2 upside in the right game scripts.

Charbonnet remains one of the most intriguing Zero RB targets in 2025 drafts. He’s shown high-end RB1 upside when given the chance—in eight games over the past two seasons where he saw extended run, he averaged 18.5 touches for 95 total yards and 0.88 touchdowns. That’s elite production if (or more likely, when) Kenneth Walker misses time. Walker has already missed 10 games in his first three seasons, so it’s a good bet Charbonnet will get a few usable starts even if Walker stays relatively healthy. The Seahawks want to "establish the run," according to John Boyle of Seahawks.com, and that philosophy could translate into a more balanced workload even when Walker is active. Charbonnet’s passing-game chops gives him standalone RB3/FLEX appeal, especially in favorable matchups. As a ninth- or tenth-round pick in most formats, he’s a great stash with plug-and-play upside. If Walker misses any time, Charbonnet becomes an instant RB1 candidate in a run-committed offense.

Shakir quietly delivered a solid season in 2024, finishing WR35 overall and WR42 on a per-game basis. Dig a little deeper, though, and there are signs of a potential breakout. He ranked 18th in yards per route run and an elite 5th in yards after catch per reception, showing he's making the most of his opportunities in a pass-heavy Buffalo offense. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception called him an "excellent starter as a slot option" and even floated the idea that Shakir’s career could follow a trajectory similar to Amon-Ra St. Brown’s. He plays with one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Josh Allen, and while the Bills did bring in Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore, Shakir’s 6.7 targets per game should remain stable. The concern is that Buffalo still likes to spread the ball around, so a true WR1 leap might not be in the cards. Still, in the WR4 range, Shakir is a rock-solid pick with weekly WR2 upside.

Every fantasy discussion about Goff has to begin with his home/away splits. From 2023 to 2024, Jared Goff’s location splits were really stark: 21.3 fantasy points per game at home versus just 13.9 per game on the road. Those splits narrowed to 21.4 vs. 17.7 last season, so over the last two seasons he has averaged 21.5 at home versus 16.1 on the road. That’s basically the difference between Baker Mayfield (21.5) and Justin Herbert (16.1) last year, so it’s still pretty stark. Goff has 10 dome games in 2025, and his final six games are indoors. Start Goff at home, and start him in favorable (shaky defense) indoor road matchups. As Marcas Grant said on our pod last summer, “he’s an inside cat.” His ADP (QB10) is higher this year, so people are starting to recognize his fantasy value.

Call me a homer, but Love is a value as the QB17 off the board. He was the fantasy QB17 last year, and quarterback is deep, so I get the ADP, but he dealt with multiple injuries and still was QB13 on a per-game basis after finishing as the fantasy QB5 in 2023. Sure, the Packers are more run-heavy with Josh Jacobs in the offense, but the Packers drafted two receivers in the first three rounds, and that signals an emphasis on improving the passing game in 2025. Considering he was already the QB13 on a per-game basis last season, if he can improve from there and perhaps get back to his top-five production, he would be a massive value at his current ADP.

Shaheed was enjoying a breakout campaign as the fantasy WR20 through the first six weeks before suffering a meniscus injury that derailed his season. He should be ready for camp, but his boom-or-bust tendencies from 2024 remain a concern—he posted four games with at least 73 yards and three touchdowns, but also delivered a pair of clunkers with 11 yards or fewer. He offers added value as a threat in the running game, but the quarterback situation is murky and clearly a downgrade from last year, making it harder to trust Shaheed on a weekly basis. After finishing WR47 in 2023, he flashed a higher ceiling before the injury last year, but unless the Saints get more consistent quarterback play, he’s a volatile WR4 best suited for best ball or boom-needy lineups.

Mooney showed some signs of life in 2024, averaging 4.1 receptions for 62 yards and 0.36 touchdowns in 14 games with Kirk Cousins under center—production that landed him squarely in the low-end WR3 conversation. But when Michael Penix Jr. took over in Weeks 16 and 17, Mooney's numbers dipped to 3.5 receptions for 60 yards and no touchdowns, more in line with WR5 output. That said, Penix did target Mooney on 17.7% of his attempts (11 of 62), which isn’t terrible usage for a new connection still finding its rhythm. Touchdown regression could help smooth things out—Mooney failed to score in either of those games, despite seeing a couple of red zone looks. If Penix proves competent and leans on Mooney more heavily as a trusted veteran, there's some upside here. For now, he profiles as a volatile WR4/WR5 option with a path to relevancy if the quarterback situation stabilizes.

Egbuka enters the league with a polished profile and a clear runway to early-season snaps if Chris Godwin misses any time. He posted a strong senior season at Ohio State—81 catches for 1,011 yards and eight touchdowns—and finished 27th out of 151 qualified receivers in yards per route run, a strong indicator that his game will translate to the pros. The historical comps are encouraging. Among the 11 first-round receivers drafted in the second half of the round since 2010 who played at least 14 games, the group averaged 58.3-779-5.0. That jumps to 62-879-4.9 if they started at least 10 games, so if Egbuka earns a substantial role early, WR3/WR4 production is in play. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception describes him as “ready-made to be a rock-solid slot-leaning option” with “plenty of production-based upside.” He may not be flashy, but Egbuka’s well-rounded skill set and pro-ready route running make him an intriguing 10th-round pick with a high floor and sneaky upside.

Herbert finished as the fantasy QB13 last season after a 13-game, QB16 finish the year before. (He was QB13 on a per-game basis in 2023.) So after a pretty hot start to his career, he has settled into low-end QB1/high-end QB2 territory and he plays for Jim Harbaugh, who likes to establish the run. His 29.6 pass attempts per game last season were well off his career average of 39.1, though he set a career high in yards per attempt (7.7). Daniel Popper (The Athletic) believes that the Chargers’ passing attack “felt stunted” last year due to a lack of vertical threats; “that will not be the case this year.” The Chargers added Tre’ Harris, Oronde Gadsen, and brought Keenan Allen back. Herbert said recently that he wants to run more like Josh Allen, and that could unlock top-five numbers in 2025.

It’s put-up or shut-up time for Javonte Williams. Now two full seasons removed from his devastating knee injury, Williams told team reporter Tommy Yarrish that he “feels completely like [him]self” and that the healing process is “done.” That may be true physically, but the numbers suggest otherwise. As a rookie, Williams was a tackle-breaking machine—first in broken tackles per attempt (0.153), with strong marks in both yards before (2.2) and after (2.3) contact per attempt. But in 2024, he averaged just 1.9 yards before contact (20th percentile), 1.8 after contact (20th), and a meager 0.029 broken tackles per attempt (7th). He hasn’t looked like the same explosive runner he was pre-injury. The Cowboys added Miles Sanders in free agency and drafted Jaydon Blue, whose speed and receiving chops could quickly carve out a role. Williams hasn’t been promised anything, but he is getting first-team reps in early practices. He’ll need to fend off multiple challengers to return RB3/flex value, but he has the inside track—for now. Consider him a shaky RB3 with a short leash and limited upside.

Loveland was the first tight end off the board in April, going No. 10 overall to the Bears—a pick that signals serious intent to make him a key part of the passing game. He averaged 58.2 receiving yards per game as a junior at Michigan and brings 4.72 speed (72nd percentile speed score per Player Profiler) to a position that increasingly rewards athleticism. Despite Cole Kmet's presence (47-474-4 in 2024), drafters aren’t concerned, targeting Loveland as a high-end TE2. Historically, first-round tight ends with full seasons under their belt have averaged 7.3 half-PPR points per game, which puts him squarely in the high-end TE2 conversation if the Bears’ offense takes a step forward. There’s some risk given the injury, Kmet's veteran presence, and rookie tight end learning curve, but Loveland is well-positioned for immediate production.

Downs missed three games last season and finished as the WR38 on a per-game basis, but his outlook for 2025 is far more intriguing than his recent production suggests. He ranked 18th in yards per route run and 23rd in yards after catch per reception—both strong indicators of underlying talent. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception called him “a near superstar player” who offers far more than the typical slot receiver. Harmon believes Downs has the potential to be the focal point of the Colts' passing attack, similar to how the Lions center their offense around Amon-Ra St. Brown. While the quarterback situation remains murky—Anthony Richardson’s health and Daniel Jones’s performance are both question marks—the team should at least have a functional passing game, and Downs’s role is locked in. If it's Jones, we've seen him feed a lesser player, Wan'Dale Robinson, plenty of targets. Downs is being drafted as a low-end WR4, but his route-running prowess and potential target share make him arguably the best upside bet in that range.

Kincaid followed up a promising TE15 rookie campaign with a disappointing sophomore season, finishing as the TE26 overall and TE21 on a per-game basis. He missed a few games, but even when active, his usage took a step back—his yards per game, receptions per game, and catch rate all declined from his rookie year. Despite the underwhelming second season, the ingredients for a breakout remain. Kincaid is an athletic pass-catcher operating in a high-powered offense with Josh Allen at the helm, and there’s still no target-dominating WR1 on the roster. If he can rebound and command consistent volume, he has the tools to emerge as a TE1 option in 2025.

Mims is an intriguing receiver going in the WR5/WR6 range. He’s entering his third season after a strong finish in 2024. From Week 11 to Week 18, he averaged 4.0 receptions for 62 yards and 0.86 touchdowns on 4.7 targets per game. He only played 33% of the snaps in that span, and he isn’t likely to keep up that touchdown production without a bump in snaps, but he deserves to play more. In that span, he had the 18th-highest PFF receiving grade and posted the highest yards per route run (4.54). If his snaps don’t increase, he’s unlikely to become a major fantasy factor, but more playing time could result in fantasy-starter type numbers. The Broncos’ early depth chart did list Mims as one of the team’s two starting receivers, which is a good sign.

Montgomery continues to be a reliable fantasy option in Detroit’s high-powered offense, finishing as the RB17 in 2024 despite missing three games—he was the RB13 on a per-game basis. That followed a strong 2023 campaign where he finished RB14 overall and RB8 in per-game scoring. As Jahmyr Gibbs' role grew, Montgomery’s touches dipped slightly from 16.8 per game in 2023 to 15.8 in 2024, but he made up for it with a larger receiving role—jumping from 16 receptions to 36 year-over-year. Efficiency-wise, he remains a tough, physical runner: he ranked 36th in yards before contact but 15th in yards after contact and 4th in broken tackles per attempt. His 16th-place PFF rushing grade was solid, reinforcing his reputation as an above-average grinder who can get the tough yards and score touchdowns. Montgomery’s weekly upside is somewhat TD-dependent, but his consistent workload and role near the goal line make him a dependable RB2, even as Gibbs becomes the flashier fantasy asset. If Gibbs were to get injured, Monty would have top-five upside.

Maye is intriguing since he averaged low-end QB1 numbers–17.7 points per game–in his nine full-ish games. The Patriots added a talented yet aging receiver in Stefon Diggs, who could serve as an adequate WR1 if his ACL recovery continues to go well. New England also added big-play receiver Kyle Williams in the third round.

Ertz surprisingly finished as the TE9 in his 12th NFL season, posting the most yards (654) and receptions (66) since 2021, and the most touchdowns (7) since 2018. Well past his prime, Ertz proved to be a serviceable baseline option at the position. Tight ends tend to age better than running backs or receivers, so it’s not inconceivable that Ertz has another low-end TE1 season provided he can stay relatively healthy.

Blue enters the 2025 season in a three-headed backfield with Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders, but he’s easily the most intriguing option of the trio. His 4.43 speed and 73rd percentile speed score (per Player Profiler) give him home-run potential that neither Williams nor Sanders can match at this point in their careers. While he ranked just 48th out of 67 qualified backs in PFF’s collegiate rushing grade last season, he stood out as a receiver, finishing 9th out of 64 in yards per route run. He’s not built to handle heavy volume between the tackles, but he doesn’t need to. Given the lackluster production and durability concerns of his backfield competition, Blue could carve out a valuable 10–12 touch-per-game role—especially in a pass-heavy, fast-paced Cowboys offense. He’s a high-upside late-round dart throw in PPR formats, with standalone FLEX value if the touches materialize early.

Last year, three quarterbacks drafted QB20 or later finished in the top 12: Baker Mayfield (QB21), Sam Darnold (QB31), and Bo Nix (QB23). They had a couple of things in common: 1) a strong offensive mind calling the plays, and 2) they can score fantasy points with their legs. Darnold (QB27) can run, but Klint Kubiak is not a certified offensive genius like, say, Kevin O’Connell, who coaxed a QB8 finish out of Darnold last season. That’s why I like QB19 J.J. McCarthy to meet or exceed his draft position. It’s pretty simple: In O’Connell we trust. McCarthy will run a bit and has a nice group of weapons, including Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones.

Trying to decipher the Jaguars’ backfield in 2024 was like reading tea leaves. Etienne opened the season as the starter, averaging 14.3 touches and a healthy 4.55 YPC through the first four games. But starting in Week 4, Tank Bigsby began to carve out a role, rushing for 90 yards against the Texans. He followed that with a breakout performance against the Colts in Week 5 (14 touches, 129 yards, 2 TDs) with Etienne active, and then dominated in Week 7 against the Patriots (26 carries, 118 yards, 2 TDs) while Etienne was sidelined with a hamstring injury. Bigsby ultimately averaged 4.6 yards per carry—nearly a full yard more than Etienne (3.7)—though Etienne maintained the passing-down role. The Jags also added Bhayshul Tuten in the fourth round of the draft, a superior athlete who adds yet another variable to this backfield. With Etienne healthy and still involved, and Tuten now in the mix, the Jaguars’ backfield could unfold in several ways.

Tillman’s ADP has him ranked as a WR6 and I currently have him ranked as a low-end WR4, so there’s some value here. Once Amari Cooper was traded, things opened up for Tillman, and he went on a four-game run that included 8-81 on 12 targets against the Bengals, 7-99-2 on nine targets against the Ravens, 6-75-1 on 11 targets against the Chargers, and 3-47 on eight targets against the Saints. He was the WR8 on a per-game basis and averaged the sixth-most targets in that span. One way or another, the Browns’ quarterback situation should be better. Tillman is a great upside WR5/WR6 to round out the roster.

Allgeier remains one of the most capable backups in the league and a high-end handcuff for fantasy purposes. While Bijan Robinson has proven to be durable, any missed time would immediately vault Allgeier into the RB1/RB2 conversation. He runs with toughness and consistency, finishing 10th in PFF’s rushing grade and posting strong underlying metrics: 6th (of 46 qualified backs) in yards after contact per attempt and 25th in yards before contact per attempt, though his tackle-breaking numbers (34th) weren’t as impressive. In a run-friendly offense helmed by rookie QB Michael Penix, Allgeier should still get some weekly run in a complementary role, but his real value lies in the contingency upside. He’s a must-have handcuff for Bijan drafters and a solid attrition pick in the double-digit rounds for Zero RB builds.

White saw his role shrink in 2024 as rookie Bucky Irving carved out a bigger share of the Tampa backfield. After averaging 19.8 touches per game in 2023, White's post-bye workload was down to just 11.1 last season, producing 9.7 half-PPR points per game—low-end RB3 numbers. That usage could shrink even further in 2025. Head coach Todd Bowles told The Athletic that he “expects greatness” from Irving and that the second-year back’s “opportunities are likely to increase substantially.” To White’s credit, he still ran well in limited work. Among the 46 backs with at least 100 carries, he ranked 5th in yards after contact per attempt, though he was middling in yards before contact and near the bottom in broken tackles per attempt. With Irving on the rise and Tampa clearly preparing to lean on him more, White’s standalone value is fading. He’ll need an Irving injury to push for anything more than RB3/flex value in 2025.

Prior to the Draft, this looked like the perfect landing spot for Harris, who has averaged 319 touches per season and has never missed a game. However, the Chargers drafted Omarion Hampton in the first round, giving him the likely edge to lead this backfield in touches. Harris’s efficiency is nothing to write home about--4.0 yards per carry, 27th (out of 46) in yards after contact per attempt, 17th in broken tackles per attempt--but he is a solid dual-threat who can carry the load if necessary.

​​The Browns used the No. 36 overall pick on Judkins, signaling their confidence that he can be a foundational piece in their post-Nick Chubb backfield. Since 2010, second-round backs who’ve played at least 14 games have averaged 188 touches for 931 total yards and 5.4 touchdowns as rookies—numbers well within reach for Judkins given the opportunity in Cleveland. With Chubb no longer on the roster, the depth chart is wide open. The Browns also drafted Dylan Sampson in the fourth round, but Judkins’ superior draft capital and athletic profile (92nd percentile speed score, 94th percentile burst score) give him the clear edge heading into camp. He was 9th in PFF’s rushing grade among this year’s rookies and is already regarded as dependable in both pass-catching and pass protection, which should earn him early-down work with potential for more. Judkins could flirt with 250+ touches as a rookie in a run-heavy scheme. He’s a high-upside RB3 with the potential to rise quickly into RB2 territory if he wins the job outright. His July arrest for domestic violence may cause him to miss time, however.

A by-product of Evan Engram’s departure is that Strange is primed to see a big jump in snaps as he enters his third season. In the eight games that Engram missed, Strange averaged 3.6 catches for 34 yards and 0.25 touchdowns on 4.9 targets per game. The resulting 6.5 (half-PPR) fantasy points per game equate to solid TE2-type numbers. He was tied for 17th in yards per route run among tight ends. Christian Kirk (47 targets) and Gabe Davis (42) are also gone, so there are plenty of targets up for grabs in Jacksonville.

Freiermuth is being overlooked in early drafts despite a strong 2024 season where he caught 65 passes for 653 yards and seven scores, finishing as the fantasy TE10. The Steelers added Jonnu Smith in the offseason, which has seemingly spooked drafters, but new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has a history of utilizing multiple tight ends. Given the lack of depth in Pittsburgh’s receiving corps, it’s likely we’ll see plenty of “12” personnel with both Freiermuth and Smith on the field. Freiermuth has proven to be a reliable target with a nose for the end zone, something new QB Aaron Rodgers will appreciate. He’s not flashy, but he’s a solid mid-round option with weekly TE1 upside who is currently going at a TE2 discount.

Tagovailoa averaged 17.2 in his 10 non-injury games, but left early and missed seven games thanks to another concussion and a late-season hip injury, so he finished as the fantasy QB20, which is actually pretty impressive considering he missed so much time. He finished QB10 in a full 2023 season, so his per-game production is typically low-end QB1. If he can stay healthy there will likely be some value to be had given his low-end QB2 ADP. That’s a big “if,” however, given that he’s missed 14 games in the last four years and could be one severe concussion away from retirement. That said, given his ADP, he could be a productive member of a quarterback-by-committee strategy.

Williams turned heads in the pre-draft process with his 4.40 speed and ability to generate yards after the catch. He backed it up with strong advanced metrics—he ranked 16th in yards per route run and 6th in YAC per reception—suggesting he can create on his own, not just capitalize on schemed touches. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception praised his “multi-layered separation skills with explosive potential as a YAC threat,” reinforcing the idea that Williams can win in multiple ways. He was a third-round pick, and while Day 2 receivers aren't guaranteed volume, there's a track record of success: the four third-rounders since 2010 who started at least 11 games as rookies averaged 50 catches for 711 yards and nearly six touchdowns—WR4 production. If Williams carves out a role early, he could reach that benchmark. At 5’11”, 190 pounds, Williams profiles as a versatile slot/outside option, and his main target competition—an aging Stefon Diggs and the undersized Demario Douglas—doesn’t present an insurmountable hurdle. If he starts the season in three-WR sets, he’ll be on the fantasy radar as a late-round flier with upside.

The 32-year-old Hopkins averaged a career-low 38.1 receiving yards per game. His yards per route run (1.71) was solid (but not great) for a receiver but it was Hopkins' lowest mark since 2016. He can still contribute as a possession receiver, but his days of elite fantasy WR1 (or even WR2) production are likely over, especially playing for the run-oriented Ravens.

Stafford was the QB26 last season after a QB15 finish the year before. He offers nothing as a runner, and last year’s poor production was probably more about Cooper Kupp’s drop off in production and Puka Nacua’s shortened season. If Nacua can remain healthy, and Stafford vibes quickly with Davante Adams, then Stafford should be able to get back into the midrange QB2 mix. In Sean McVay we trust.

Young was benched after Week 2, but when his backup, Andy Dalton, was injured late in Week 7, he got the starting job back. From that point on, he showed serious signs of competency, averaging a solid 210 yards passing and 1.5 touchdowns to go along with increased production as a runner (22 yards, 0.5 touchdowns per game). The resulting 18.0 fantasy points per game were enough to make him the QB12 from Week 8 through Week 18. Drafters are justifiably cautious–he’s being drafted as a high-end QB3–but he may hold value there if he can carry over his progress to 2025, continues to run the ball, and can vibe quickly with first-round draft pick Tetairoa McMillan.

After flashing significant upside in his second and third seasons--mainly when other Charger receivers were injured--Palmer's 2024 production was disappointing given the departures of both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Palmer failed to outproduce Quentin Johnston, who bested Palmer in receptions (55 to 39), yards (711 to 584), and touchdowns (8 to 1). In Buffalo, Palmer replaces Mack Hollins, who signed a two-year deal to join the Patriots.

Ward will start immediately, but his fantasy expectations should be kept in check thanks to a so-so set of receiving weapons. Calvin Ridley is the headliner, and he’s solid, but when Van Jefferson is your WR2, you’re probably in trouble. (The team did add Tyler Lockett on draft day; he could play in two-receiver sets ahead of Jefferson.) Ward can run, and my rookie quarterback model projects him to rush for 15.0 yards per game. That’s about what Bo Nix (15.4 projected, 25.3 actual) and Bryce Young (14.9 projected, 15.8 actual) were projected for in their rookie seasons. If the Titans add another good weapon and Ward runs a bit more than expected, then he could push for high-end QB2/low-end QB1 numbers as a rookie. He’ll certainly be in the mix as an upside QB2-type in two-QB/superflex formats.

​​Brown has been sneaky productive over the last three years, especially when he sees big snaps. In his last 23 games with a snap share of at least 70%, Brown has averaged 3.5 catches for 53.1 yards and 0.26 touches. That's a 60-903-4.4 pace over a full, 17-game season. Dyami Brown has moved on, but the Commanders traded for Deebo Samuel, so Brown will be competing for WR3 targets behind Samuel and Terry McLaurin.

Rodgers finished as the fantasy QB16 last season, though he was the QB23 on a per-game basis (14.5 points per game). In his previous full season, with the Packers, he was the fantasy QB15 with the QB23 per-game average, so he’s settled into low-end QB2-type numbers on a weekly basis. He joins a Pittsburgh team that is short on playmakers in the passing game, though the Steelers did trade for both DK Metcalf and Jonnu Smith. Pat Freiermuth, Calvin Austin III, Robert Woods, and Roman Wilson round out the pass-catchers. Rodgers doesn’t have a history with any of these guys, the Steelers’ organization, or play-caller Arthur Smith, so it’s unlikely that this all combines to anything more than what we’ve seen from him in his last two full seasons.