Top 200 Value Based Rankings

Henry rushed for nearly 2,000 yards (1,921), and scored 18 total touchdowns. He should continue to defy Father Time, at least for one more season, probably more. He looked great last year, posting the highest yards after contact per attempt (2.8), the fourth-highest yards before contact per attempt (3.1) and the most broken tackles per attempt (0.13). He also posted the highest run grade (93.5) at PFF.

He’s 25 years old, finished as the RB6 last season, and was third in touches per game (21.9). He was undervalued last year after the Rams drafted Blake Corum, and he appears to be undervalued again this season. The only thing that gives me pause about the 24-year-old Williams is his propensity to fumble the ball. He had five fumbles last year and three the year before, but in the season after the Rams drafted Corum, Williams handled a career-high 350 touches for 1,481 total yards and 16 touchdowns. Corum only averaged 3.6 yards per carry, so he didn’t do anything to justify a lead-back role in 2025.

The three-round ADP difference between Brock Bowers and Kittle is too much, given that Kittle is coming off an overall TE1 season and will benefit from the absence of Deebo Samuel. Over the past two seasons, when Samuel has been out, Kittle has averaged 5.4-78-0.47 on 6.6 targets per game (in 17 games) versus 3.6-57-0.43 on 5.1 targets per game (in 14 games). That’s the difference between an overall TE1 season and a midrange TE1 finish. The primary concern with Kittle is probably age/durability, but he’s only missed six games in the last three seasons, and he’s posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons with 25 touchdown catches in his last three seasons.

In a bit of a surprise, the Panthers signed Rico Dowdle in free agency. Last year, Dowdle and Hubbard both averaged 2.2 yards after contact per attempt, while Hubbard had the advantage in broken tackles (17.9 att/broken tackle vs. 21.4 att/broken tackle for Dowdle) and PFF rush grade (87.0 vs. 74.4). Hubbard handled 73.1% of the team's backfield carries and 60.6% of the receptions. With a healthy Dowdle in the mix, I could see those shares being closer to 65% of the carries and 50% of the receptions. That being said, Miles Sanders fared a lot better as a receiver than Hubbard did (6.2 YPR vs. 4.0 YPR) yet Hubbard nearly doubled Sanders in receptions (43 to 24), so Hubbard's backfield shares may depend mostly on his playing time versus specific roles for him and Dowdle.

Mayfield rounds out the Top 6, which is not something I ever thought I’d be saying after his career began to go sideways in his fourth season. But he has finished QB5 and QB9 the last two seasons, has one of the best receiving corps–Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, Jalen McMillan, and Cade Otton–in the league, and he can run a little bit (378 yards, 3 rushing touchdowns last season). My only concern is that he’s on his third offensive coordinator in three years, but new OC Josh Grizzard was promoted from within and was the pass game coordinator last season. Mayfield should post midrange QB1 numbers once again.

Meyers finished WR31 last season, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. In 12 games without Davante Adams (due to injury and after trade), Meyers averaged 6.1 receptions for 73 yards and 0.25 touchdowns, for 12.0 (half-PPR) points per game, or low-end WR2 numbers. His 9.3 targets per game without Adams would have tied Drake London for the sixth-most in the league over the course of a full season, and he’s getting a quarterback upgrade in the form of Geno Smith. He’s a WR4 in both multi-site ADP and consensus rank, though I have him agood bit higher. Jack Bech is an interesting sleeper at WR61–Matt Harmon of Reception Perception loves him–but Meyers should still garner more targets. Fellow rookie Dont’e Thornton apparently tore up minicamp so he’s worth monitoring as well.

He finished TE8 in his second season and is primed for another leap in production if he can earn a larger role in the offense. But that’s the problem with drafting Packer receivers–Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love spread the ball around so much it’s tough to count on anyone in a given week. But Kraft led the position in yards after contact and broken tackles per catch, so he’s got the talent to join the top 5. He should finish TE8 again at a minimum, barring injury.

The Seahawks cut Tyler Lockett and traded DK Metcalf away so they had some work to do at receiver. Kupp has ties to the area and should soak up plenty of targets playing alongside Jaxon Smith-Njigba, though both players typically line up in the slot (Smith-Njigba 83.6%, Kupp 65.3% last year). Kupp is not the type of player I'd pick to join JSN in the offense, but he can certainly teach the third-year player a thing or two. Kupp averaged 1.88 yards per route run last year, which was well off his career average (2.25), but still above average league-wide and better than JSN's mark (1.81). Kupp's arrival makes Sam Darnold more appealing as a QB2-type.

Smith was an excellent draft value in 2024, smashing career-highs in targets (111), receptions (88), and yards (884) as a focal point of the Miami offense. He actually led the Dolphins in catches and was second in receiving yards. He finished TE4 and was the TE6 on a per-game basis. He was shaping up to be an excellent draft day value until the trade to Pittsburgh. It’s not a death knell to his fantasy value, but the lack of certainty in his role makes him a dicier TE1 bet. The good news, probably, is that he is reuniting with OC Arthur Smith, who coaxed a (pre-Miami) career-high 50-582-3 season out of Smith in Atlanta, which was good enough for a TE17 finish. But Pat Freiermuth just signed a healthy extension, and there’s a change at quarterback to Aaron Rodgers, so it’s not clear how the targets will be distributed among the Steelers’ top pass-catching options.

Every fantasy discussion about Goff has to begin with his home/away splits. From 2023 to 2024, Jared Goff’s location splits were really stark: 21.3 fantasy points per game at home versus just 13.9 per game on the road. Those splits narrowed to 21.4 vs. 17.7 last season, so over the last two seasons he has averaged 21.5 at home versus 16.1 on the road. That’s basically the difference between Baker Mayfield (21.5) and Justin Herbert (16.1) last year, so it’s still pretty stark. Goff has 10 dome games in 2025, and his final six games are indoors. Start Goff at home, and start him in favorable (shaky defense) indoor road matchups. As Marcas Grant said on our pod last summer, “he’s an inside cat.” His ADP (QB10) is higher this year, so people are starting to recognize his fantasy value.

Diggs is 31 and coming off a torn ACL that cost him half of the 2024 season. Prior to his injury, he was averaging 62.0 yards per game, his lowest average since his third season in the league, but he was still on pace for his seventh straight 1,000-yard season had he played the full 17 games. Five months after his injury, he is reportedly ahead of schedule and is on track to be ready for the start of the season, which is key for his potential fantasy value. I'm not too alarmed by his 2024 numbers since he was joining a new team (Texans) in a lesser role, but his decline from 2022 (89.3 yards per game) to 2023 (69.6) was significant. As he enters his 11th-season, he's expected to continue a fairly steep drop off per Ryan Heath's excellent Age Curves Study. The one thing working in Diggs' favor, however, is the lack of target competition in New England. Hunter Henry and Demario Douglas led the Patriots with 66 catches apiece, so Diggs should see all the targets he can handle if he can still get open and can hold off rookie Kyle Williams. Per ESPN's Open Score, Diggs was as good (83) last year as he was in 2022 (83). It doesn't hurt that he'll have the up-and-coming Drake Maye throwing the ball, either. Diggs raised some eyebrows this offseason when video leaked of him on a boat holding a bag of pink powder was leaked, so that’s a situation to monitor.

Mason posted the No. 20 PFF rush grade this year, was 16th in yards after contact per attempt, and 14th in broken tackles per attempt. Prior to Christian McCaffrey's return, he averaged 18.3 carries for 95.3 yards (5.21 yards per carry) and 0.43 touchdowns. He was the fantasy RB9 in that span. After the trade to Minnesota, Mason will likely form a 1-2 punch with Aaron Jones and could eventually take over as Minnesota's lead back if/when Jones moves on.

Tillman’s ADP has him ranked as a WR6 and I currently have him ranked as a low-end WR4, so there’s some value here. Reports suggest that he’ll be good to go this summer after being placed on IR due to a concussion. Once Amari Cooper was traded, things opened up for Tillman, and he went on a four-game run that included 8-81 on 12 targets against the Bengals, 7-99-2 on nine targets against the Ravens, 6-75-1 on 11 targets against the Chargers, and 3-47 on eight targets against the Saints. He was the WR8 on a per-game basis and averaged the sixth-most targets in that span. One way or another, the Browns’ quarterback situation should be better, and the Browns only added Diontae Johnson to the receiver room. (I think we’re past the point where Johnson’s arrival should be looked at as a detriment to the other receivers on the team.)

Last year, three quarterbacks drafted QB20 or later finished in the top 12: Baker Mayfield (QB21), Sam Darnold (QB31), and Bo Nix (QB23). They had a couple of things in common: 1) a strong offensive mind calling the plays, and 2) they can score fantasy points with their legs. Darnold (QB27) can run, but Klint Kubiak is not a certified offensive genius like, say, Kevin O’Connell, who coaxed a QB8 finish out of Darnold last season. That’s why I like QB19 J.J. McCarthy to meet or exceed his draft position. It’s pretty simple: In O’Connell we trust. McCarthy will run a bit and has a nice group of weapons, including Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones.

A by-product of Evan Engram’s departure is that Strange is primed to see a big jump in snaps as he enters his third season. In the eight games that Engram missed, Strange averaged 3.6 catches for 34 yards and 0.25 touchdowns on 4.9 targets per game. The resulting 6.5 (half-PPR) fantasy points per game equate to solid TE2-type numbers. He was tied for 17th in yards per route run among tight ends. The Jags did draft Travis Hunter, but it’s unlikely that he’ll be a full-time player on offense. Christian Kirk (47 targets) and Gabe Davis (42) are also gone, so there are plenty of targets up for grabs in Jacksonville.

Working backward, Smith finished QB15, QB19, and QB6 in the last three seasons. On the plus side, he has thrown for the third-most yardage (12,226), the eighth-most touchdowns (71), and has rushed for the 10th-most yards (793) in the last three seasons combined. He also has the third-most starts (49) in that span, so his solid numbers aren’t entirely surprising. He has a great tight end in Brock Bowers and a solid secondary option in Jakobi Meyers, and the Raiders added Jack Bech and Dont’e Thornton–who tore up minicamp–in the draft. Fantasy-wise, he’ll be in the low-end QB2 mix this summer, but could surprise with a low-end QB1 season.

Brown appeared in five games including three playoff games, catching 14-of-28 targets for 141 yards and no touchdowns. He saw 15 targets in his first two games and just 13 in his final three (playoff) games despite his snap percentage increasing from 27%-40% in the regular season to the 65%-73% in the postseason. Interestingly, the signing comes on the heels of Xavier Worthy’s arrest for domestic assault, though it appears that Worthy won’t be charged at this time. If Worthy and Rashee Rice are healthy, and Travis Kelce is back, Brown figures to be at best the fourth option in the Kansas City passing game.

After flashing significant upside in his second and third seasons--mainly when other Charger receivers were injured--Palmer's 2024 production was disappointing given the departures of both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Palmer failed to outproduce Quentin Johnston, who bested Palmer in receptions (55 to 39), yards (711 to 584), and touchdowns (8 to 1). In Buffalo, Palmer replaces Mack Hollins, who signed a two-year deal to join the Patriots.

Slayton has had his moments, especially prior to the arrival of Malik Nabers, but he's at best the third option behind Nabers and Wan'Dale Robinson in what's been a bad passing attack. Barring an injury to one of the Giants' top two receivers, it's unlikely that Slayton holds much fantasy value in 2025.