• Aaron Jones

  • RB
  • , Green Bay Packers
  • 27
  • 205 lbs
  • 5' 9"
PtsRuYdsRuTDRecRecYds
2121104947355
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Draft note
by John Paulsen
Jones was the No. 5 running back last season (half-PPR) after finishing No. 2 the year before. In his last 30 games, he has averaged 17.8 touches for 101 yards and 1.0 touchdowns per game. Jamaal Williams is gone, but Jones is currently the 11th running back off the board. I can only assume that this is in large part due to the uncertainty surrounding Aaron Rodgers. But now that Rodgers has reported to camp, Jones’s ADP should rise into the first round.

Latest news

Scouting report

by Joe Redemann

GB RB Aaron Jones - 2021 Fantasy Football Outlook

Fantasy Upside
Over the last two seasons, Aaron Jones has operated as the Packers’ primary running back – averaging 14.6 rushes per game for 72.9 yards (5.0 yards per attempt) and 0.8 touchdowns and 4.4 targets per game for 3.2 receptions, 27.6 yards, and 0.2 touchdowns. In 2019 and 2020, Jones finished as the fantasy RB2 and RB5, respectively, in half-PPR formats. Each season in the NFL, he has gained more receiving work and rushing volume, becoming a true every-week fantasy star. Earlier this offseason, the Packers allowed backfield-mate Jamaal Williams to walk in free agency and extended Jones on a four-year, $38 million contract that guarantees he’ll be the team’s workhorse for the next two seasons.

Fantasy Downside
Much of Jones' fantasy star turn has depended on sustained high-end yardage efficiency (5.5 yards per attempt rushing in 2017, 2018, and 2020) or scoring efficiency (28 touchdowns on 444 touches across 2018 and 2019). A volume of touches in the 260-plus range is all-but-guaranteed, but Jones' yards per attempt could slip and he might not fall into double-digit touchdowns to cover for that loss. If that happens, he likely ends up a more mortal fantasy RB2 than a superlative, league-winning RB1.

Bottom Line
Jones is poised for yet another top-five finish among fantasy backs in 2021, despite the turmoil on the rest of the team. The Green Bay offensive line has averaged a top-six ranking in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards over the last four years and should continue to pave the way for Jones. Jones is being selected as the RB10 overall (early second round), but our models project him closer to the RB6 or RB7 – giving him excess value if you can get him at ADP.

2021 Strength of Schedule - GB

W1W2W3W4W5W6W7W8W9W10W11W12W13W14W15W16W17
2
@NO
32
DET
8
@SF
6
PIT
27
@CIN
4
@CHI
7
WAS
19
@ARI
24
@KC
16
SEA
23
@MIN
5
LAR
BYE4
CHI
13
@BAL
12
CLE
23
MIN

Schedule difficulty based on schedule-adjusted, positional defensive ranking. Top DEF = 1, bottom DEF = 32.

Game Stats

WeekOppRuAttRuYdsRuTDFumYPCRecRecYdsRecTDTgtsYPRSTDPPRSnaps%
1@MIN1666104.12410062.5013.617.642/7853.8%
2DET18168209.334681817.0041.645.635/7347.9%
3@NO1669104.31217048.5014.616.644/6271.0%
4ATL1571004.73540158.0017.122.133/6352.4%
5BYE--------------
6@TB1015101.50326058.6710.113.136/6357.1%
7@HOU--------------
8MIN--------------
9@SF1558003.87521054.207.912.940/6660.6%
10JAX1346003.54549069.809.514.541/6563.1%
11@IND1041104.10430047.5013.117.130/6050.0%
12CHI1790005.2910020.009.010.038/7153.5%
13PHI15130108.67318036.0020.823.840/6165.6%
14@DET1569004.6026033.007.59.547/6770.1%
15CAR20145107.25313044.3321.824.856/6290.3%
16TEN1094009.40214037.0010.812.825/6637.9%
17@CHI1142103.824430510.7514.518.532/4669.6%
Per game14.3678.860.6405.493.3625.360.144.507.5515.1418.4938.50/64.5060.21%
Totals2011104905.49473552637.55211.9258.9539/90360.21%
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