Top 200 Value Based Rankings

Robinson finished as the fantasy RB4 in 2024, racking up 1,456 rushing yards, 431 receiving yards, and 15 total touchdowns while averaging 17.6 half-PPR points per game. He saw a big jump in usage and efficiency with a more consistent offensive structure under Zac Robinson, and now he’ll enter 2025 with Michael Penix Jr. under center. While young quarterbacks can be volatile, Penix’s downfield ability could help open up space underneath for Robinson in both the run and pass game. The Falcons didn’t add serious backfield competition, so Bijan should once again be in line for 300+ touches. With a playcaller committed to using him as a true three-down weapon, Robinson is locked in as a top-five fantasy back with a realistic path to finish as the overall RB1.

Gibbs finished as the RB3 in half-PPR in 2024, piling up 1,412 rushing yards, 517 receiving yards, and 20 total touchdowns while averaging 18.3 fantasy points per game. In the three games that David Montgomery missed, Gibbs exploded for 30.4 fantasy points per game, but he still averaged a rock-solid 17.6 in the 14 games they played together—proof that he doesn't need a full workload to deliver elite production. The Lions will have a new playcaller in 2025 after Ben Johnson took a head coaching job, which introduces a bit of uncertainty, but the offense still projects to be one of the league’s best with Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and an elite offensive line in place. Gibbs is a high-floor, high-ceiling RB1 and a worthy first-round pick in all formats.

In his final collegiate season, Jeanty racked up 2,739 total yards and 30 touchdowns for Boise State. His receiving numbers (23-238-1) were modest, but he was far more utilized as a receiver in the previous season (43-569-5), so he has the receiving chops to be a dual-threat in the NFL. The Raiders struggled to run the ball last year (3.6 YPC as a team), and Jeanty should vastly improve the team's per carry and overall production. He's a dual threat and should see a bell cow workload, so he's a threat for fantasy RB1 numbers from the get-go. The only knocks on his game appear to be his shaky pass protection and suspect ball security. The former might impact his snaps if the Raiders elect to pull him out on obvious passing downs. Regardless, I’m expecting a huge workload, and that should lead to RB1 fantasy production. Follow the touches.

Achane followed up his electric rookie season with another strong campaign in 2024, finishing as the fantasy RB7 overall and RB11 on a per-game basis. He handled 281 touches for 1,499 total yards and 12 touchdowns, carving out a huge role in Miami’s high-powered offense. His 78 receptions on 87 targets made him one of the most valuable backs in PPR and half-PPR formats--he lead all running backs in receptions and was 10th in yards per route run (1.45) at his position. While his explosive playmaking remained a calling card, Achane's underlying rushing efficiency wasn’t elite. Among 46 running backs with at least 100 carries, he ranked 18th in yards before contact per attempt, 26th in yards after contact per attempt, and 41st in broken tackle rate. That said, Mike McDaniel continues to scheme him into space, and Achane’s game-breaking speed and pass-catching role give him one of the highest ceilings among RB1s. As long as he stays healthy, he’s a weekly difference-maker with top-five upside, especially in formats that reward receptions.

McCaffrey is coming off a lost 2024 season, playing in just four games and finishing as the RB30 on a per-game basis after battling a PCL sprain and a nagging Achilles issue. Now 29 years old with 20 missed games over the last three seasons, durability is a legitimate concern. That said, his ceiling remains unmatched when he’s healthy—just two years ago, he was the overall RB1 and outscored the RB2 (Raheem Mostert) by more than 100 half-PPR points. He participated fully in 49ers minicamp and appears on track for a full workload heading into 2025. San Francisco’s offense is still loaded with playmakers and remains one of the most efficient scoring units in the league. If McCaffrey can stay on the field, he still has league-winning upside. The risk is higher than in years past, but so is the potential reward—he’s a high-variance RB1 with overall RB1 in his range of outcomes.

St. Brown followed up his WR3 finish in 2023 with another WR3 season in 2024, finishing fifth on a per-game basis. He continues to be one of the most reliable receivers in football, having missed just two games in his four-year career. A new offensive coordinator could shake things up a bit in Detroit, but St. Brown’s role as the focal point of the passing attack should remain intact. He finished 11th in yards per route run and has proven to be both efficient and volume-driven—a rare combo. Fantasy managers should feel comfortable drafting him as a midrange to high-end WR1 once again.

Collins broke out in 2023 and followed it up with another great season, catching 80 passes for 1,209 yards and eight touchdowns in just 12 games. He finished WR26 overall, but he was the WR7 on a per-game basis, clearly cementing himself as C.J. Stroud’s go-to target in the Texans’ high-powered passing attack. Efficiency metrics continue to paint Collins as one of the league’s most dangerous receivers. Among 88 qualified WRs, he ranked 2nd in yards per route run (YPRR), a stat that correlates strongly with fantasy success. He was also 23rd in YAC per reception and 25th in contested catch rate, showing he's effective both after the catch and in tight coverage. His blend of size, route-running precision, and efficiency makes him an extremely tough cover, particularly in the intermediate game—an area of the field where Matt Harmon of Reception Perception says Collins “might just be the best route runner in the NFL.” With Stefon Diggs gone and Tank Dell recovering from multiple injuries, Collins is locked in as Stroud’s WR1 and has the skill set and role to finish as a fantasy WR1 (perhaps THE fantasy WR1) in 2025.

Bowers had a terrific rookie campaign, finishing with 112 catches for 1,194 yards and five touchdowns on a whopping 153 targets. The stars aligned early, with Davante Adams traded away and Michael Mayer missing significant time, clearing the runway for Bowers to immediately become the focal point of the Raiders’ passing attack. He handled the volume with ease, showcasing the athleticism and route-running prowess that made him a generational tight end prospect coming out of Georgia. With Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews now in the twilight of their careers, Bowers enters 2025 with a strong case to be the fantasy TE1. He offers elite volume, consistency, and a high floor typically reserved for top-tier wideouts. The arrival of Geno Smith should also provide a boost in quarterback play, potentially improving Bowers' efficiency after a solid (but not spectacular) rookie-season catch rate of 73.2%. In a thinning elite tight end landscape, Bowers stands out as a weekly advantage and should be a second-round pick in most formats. In TE-premium, he's a surefire first-rounder.

Taylor enters his age-26 season still firmly in his prime, but durability remains a concern—he’s missed 16 games over the last three years. In 2024, he played 14 games and finished as the fantasy RB14, but was RB8 on a per-game basis, racking up 1,567 total yards and 12 touchdowns on 321 touches. While he hasn’t been much of a receiving threat the last two seasons (just 1.5 catches per game), he showed pass-catching upside early in his career (76 receptions across his first two seasons), and his receiving role could grow if Daniel Jones wins the starting job. Last season, Jones targeted running backs on 13.5% of his throws compared to just 7.8% for Anthony Richardson over the past two seasons. Taylor was efficient before contact (6th out of 46 qualified backs) but struggled to create after it, ranking 36th in yards after contact per attempt and 35th in broken tackle rate. That could be a function of injury, usage, or offensive design, but it’s something to monitor. Taylor is a strong bet for 300+ touches again in 2025 and remains a midrange RB1 with top-five upside if he can stay on the field and see a bump in receiving usage.

Brian Thomas Jr. turned in an excellent rookie season and was one of my favorite late-round targets (typically available in the 9th round). He vastly outperformed that ADP, finishing as the overall WR4 and WR10 on a per-game basis thanks to a 87-129-1,282-10 receiving line. He hit the ground running in Jacksonville and quickly emerged as Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target. Among 88 qualified receivers, Thomas finished 6th in yards per route run and 10th in YAC per reception—elite efficiency for any wideout, let alone a rookie. With Christian Kirk and Evan Engram both gone and Travis Hunter expected to play part-time on offense, Thomas should continue to see plenty of volume in 2025. He checks all the boxes: size, speed, route running, and now proven production. It’s wheels up from here.

He’s 25 years old, finished as the RB6 last season, and was third in touches per game (21.9). He was undervalued last year after the Rams drafted Blake Corum, and he appears to be undervalued again this season. The only thing that gives me pause about the 24-year-old Williams is his propensity to fumble the ball. He had five fumbles last year and three the year before, but in the season after the Rams drafted Corum, Williams handled a career-high 350 touches for 1,481 total yards and 16 touchdowns. Corum only averaged 3.6 yards per carry, so he didn’t do anything to justify a lead-back role in 2025.

McConkey was one of the most pro-ready receivers in the 2024 class, and he backed that up with a stellar rookie campaign. A favorite of Matt Harmon during the pre-draft process, McConkey caught 91 passes for 1,346 yards and 8 touchdowns, finishing as the WR13 overall and WR20 on a per-game basis. His smooth route running and advanced feel for coverages translated immediately. His underlying metrics support the breakout: McConkey finished 4th among 88 qualified receivers in yards per route run and ranked 13th in contested catch rate despite not being a prototypical “above-the-rim” player. He was also 10th in targeted QB rating and 26th in YAC per reception, showing how efficient and quarterback-friendly he was across the board. Looking ahead to 2025, McConkey is expected to build on his strong debut, though the addition of rookie Tre Harris and the return of Mike Williams could put a ceiling on his target share. Still, with Justin Herbert at quarterback, McConkey should remain a high-floor WR2 with room for more.

Working backward, Allen has finished QB2, QB1, QB2, and QB1 in the last four seasons. He’s done it with a plethora of different receivers, and he has a decent crew to throw to again this season. Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Dalton Kincaid, and Dawson Knox are all back, and the Bills added Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore to the mix. I’m expecting another high-end season for Allen.

Kittle is coming off an overall TE1 season and will benefit from the absence of Deebo Samuel. Over the past two seasons, when Samuel has been out, Kittle has averaged 5.4-78-0.47 on 6.6 targets per game (in 17 games) versus 3.6-57-0.43 on 5.1 targets per game (in 14 games). That’s the difference between an overall TE1 season and a midrange TE1 finish. The primary concern with Kittle is age/durability, but he’s only missed six games in the last three seasons, and he’s posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons with 25 touchdown catches in his last three seasons. Thus far, he has shown no signs of slowing down. He averaged an eye-popping 2.62 yards per route run last season and was third in YAC/rec (6.6).

Cook finally found the end zone in 2024—after scoring just four rushing touchdowns across his first two seasons, he punched in 16 on the ground last year, propelling him to an RB8 finish in half-PPR formats. While that spike in touchdowns was a welcome development for fantasy managers, some regression is likely in 2025, especially with Josh Allen still handling a healthy share of goal-line work. Cook was solid across the board as a runner, ranking 12th in yards before contact, 14th in yards after contact, and 24th in broken tackles per attempt among 46 qualified backs. He remains a key piece of a high-scoring Buffalo offense that should continue to give him plenty of scoring opportunities, even if last year’s touchdown rate proves unsustainable. He’s currently seeking a contract extension but showed good faith by attending the team’s mandatory minicamp. Cook enters 2025 as a rock-solid RB2 with upside in an explosive offense—just don’t count on another 16 rushing scores.

Cooper Kupp’s 8.3 targets per game are up for grabs. Adams has seen 10+ targets per game for seven straight seasons, so it’s possible that either he or Puka Nacua may see a slightly reduced role than what they’ve been used to. Considering Adams’ age (32), he’s more likely to cede work than Nacua, who is just entering his prime target-earning years. Still, Adams’ is riding a five-year streak of at least 1,000 yards and if he can stay healthy, he’s likely to make it six with Sean McVay scheming the offense. That puts him squarely in the WR2 range.

In a bit of a surprise, the Panthers signed Rico Dowdle in free agency. Last year, Dowdle and Hubbard both averaged 2.2 yards after contact per attempt, while Hubbard had the advantage in broken tackles (17.9 att/broken tackle vs. 21.4 att/broken tackle for Dowdle) and PFF rush grade (87.0 vs. 74.4). Hubbard handled 73.1% of the team's backfield carries and 60.6% of the receptions. With a healthy Dowdle in the mix, I could see those shares being closer to 65% of the carries and 50% of the receptions. That being said, Miles Sanders fared a lot better as a receiver than Hubbard did (6.2 YPR vs. 4.0 YPR) yet Hubbard nearly doubled Sanders in receptions (43 to 24), so Hubbard's backfield shares may depend mostly on his playing time versus specific roles for him and Dowdle.

Kamara keeps defying the odds, finishing as the fantasy RB9 in 2024 despite turning 30 this summer and operating in an inconsistent Saints offense. His rushing efficiency has clearly declined—he ranked 40th in yards after contact per attempt, 28th in broken tackles per attempt, and posted just the 19th-best PFF rushing grade among qualified backs. But he remains serviceable before contact (16th), and more importantly, he's still one of the league’s premier receiving backs. Over the last two seasons, Kamara leads all running backs in receptions (143) and ranks second in receiving yards (1,009), and his 2nd-place finish in yards per route run in 2024 highlights just how dangerous he still is as a pass-catcher. The problem? The Saints’ quarterback room is among the worst in the league, and scoring opportunities may be few and far between. Kamara’s age and declining rushing efficiency are real red flags, but his elite passing-game role keeps him firmly in the RB2 mix in PPR and half-PPR formats. Just temper expectations in standard scoring leagues or if the offense completely stalls.

Hampton was the second running back off the board in the 2025 NFL Draft, landing with the Chargers late in the first round. Historically, that’s a promising signal—since 2010, running backs drafted in the back half of the first round who played at least 14 games have averaged 234 touches for 1,160 total yards and 6.7 touchdowns as rookies. The Chargers also signed Najee Harris, so a committee could emerge, but Hampton—armed with first-round draft capital and superior athletic traits—has the inside track to lead the backfield in touches. His closest comp on Player Profiler is Jonathan Taylor, and it’s easy to see why: 4.46 speed, a 94th percentile speed score, and 91st percentile burst. He also earned the 7th-highest PFF rushing grade in this year’s class, and he showed three-down capability with 38 catches for 373 yards and two scores as a junior. With head coach Jim Harbaugh expected to continue to lean on the run game, Hampton could push for 225+ touches as a rookie. If he seizes goal-line work and maintains a passing-game role, he’ll offer midrange RB2 value right away—with room for more if Harris fades into a complementary role.

Montgomery continues to be a reliable fantasy option in Detroit’s high-powered offense, finishing as the RB17 in 2024 despite missing three games—he was the RB13 on a per-game basis. That followed a strong 2023 campaign where he finished RB14 overall and RB8 in per-game scoring. As Jahmyr Gibbs' role grew, Montgomery’s touches dipped slightly from 16.8 per game in 2023 to 15.8 in 2024, but he made up for it with a larger receiving role—jumping from 16 receptions to 36 year-over-year. Efficiency-wise, he remains a tough, physical runner: he ranked 36th in yards before contact but 15th in yards after contact and 4th in broken tackles per attempt. His 16th-place PFF rushing grade was solid, reinforcing his reputation as an above-average grinder who can get the tough yards and score touchdowns. Montgomery’s weekly upside is somewhat TD-dependent, but his consistent workload and role near the goal line make him a dependable RB2, even as Gibbs becomes the flashier fantasy asset. If Gibbs were to get injured, Monty would have top-five upside.

Conner continues to produce at a high level, finishing as the fantasy RB10 in 2024 after an RB15 per-game finish the year prior. Now entering his age-30 season, he’s still getting it done with outstanding efficiency—among 46 qualified backs, he ranked 9th in yards after contact per attempt, 5th in broken tackles per attempt, and earned the 8th-highest rushing grade at PFF. Despite his physical running style, he’s showing no signs of slowing down just yet. That said, the Cardinals may be preparing to ease his workload. Rookie Trey Benson is waiting in the wings, and head coach Jonathan Gannon recently said, “If [Trey] takes the necessary jump from Year 1 to Year 2, I think we have two starting backs.” That could signal a shift toward more of a timeshare in 2025, especially with Conner entering a more injury-prone phase of his career. Conner’s still a strong, tackle-breaking runner in an offense that looked improved with Kyler Murray back under center. He’s best viewed as a mid-range RB2 with some RB1 weeks in his range, though his age and Benson’s presence add some risk to his season-long volume.

Worthy’s role grew steadily in the second half of the season. From Week 11 to Week 17, he averaged 5.6-56-0.43 on 7.9 targets per game. He added 9.6 yards and 0.14 rush touchdowns in that span. In three playoff games, he racked up 19 catches for 287 yards and three scores on 7.0 targets per game. He was 9th in yards after contact per reception. Rashee Rice is back and healthy, but may be facing a multi-game suspension after his court case came to a close in mid-July. Worthy’s value gets a bump if Rice misses time, as expected.

Montgomery continues to be a reliable fantasy option in Detroit’s high-powered offense, finishing as the RB17 in 2024 despite missing three games—he was the RB13 on a per-game basis. That followed a strong 2023 campaign where he finished RB14 overall and RB8 in per-game scoring. As Jahmyr Gibbs' role grew, Montgomery’s touches dipped slightly from 16.8 per game in 2023 to 15.8 in 2024, but he made up for it with a larger receiving role—jumping from 16 receptions to 36 year-over-year. Efficiency-wise, he remains a tough, physical runner: he ranked 36th in yards before contact but 15th in yards after contact and 4th in broken tackles per attempt. His 16th-place PFF rushing grade was solid, reinforcing his reputation as an above-average grinder who can get the tough yards and score touchdowns. Montgomery’s weekly upside is somewhat TD-dependent, but his consistent workload and role near the goal line make him a dependable RB2, even as Gibbs becomes the flashier fantasy asset.

LaPorta’s steep decline in targets per game (7.1 to 5.2) in his second season was surprising, as Jameson Williams (91 targets) took over as the team’s No. 2 target. LaPorta will likely settle in as a perennial top 5 fantasy tight end, but perhaps lacks the overall TE1 target upside with a healthy Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown in the mix. Among tight ends, he finished 11th in YAC/rec and 12th in yards per route run, so the efficiency was there. He finished strong, seeing at least six targets in his final eight games and was the TE5 in that span. Hopefully, we’ll look back on his early-season struggles as just a blip in his career as a fantasy producer.

The Patriots used the No. 38 overall pick on Henderson, and that kind of early second-round draft capital strongly suggests they view him as more than just a change-of-pace back. Since 2010, second-round running backs who played at least 14 games have averaged 188 touches for 931 total yards and 5.4 touchdowns as rookies—production well within Henderson’s range if he can carve out a consistent role. New GM Eliot Wolf called him “a three-down back and a really good complement,” which doesn’t clarify much, but it’s notable considering Rhamondre Stevenson has averaged just 3.91 yards per carry over the last two seasons. Henderson offers another gear—he ran a 4.43 with an 81st percentile speed score and 91st percentile burst score per Player Profiler—and he ranked 4th in PFF rushing grade in this year’s draft class. Chad Graff of The Athletic wrote that Henderson “might be the most exciting player for Patriots fans to watch in camp” and that “it’s frankly astounding how quickly he gets to top speed.” If that explosiveness translates early, he could quickly leapfrog Stevenson and push for lead-back duties. For now, Henderson profiles as a high-end, upside RB3 with the potential to be a weekly RB2 if he grabs the top spot in what should be an improving offense.

Jones remains one of the most productive dual-threat running backs in the league. He racked up the seventh-most yards from scrimmage (1,546) and the eighth-most receptions (51) at his position, finishing as the fantasy RB15 on the year. His 306 touches were a career-high and it’s unlikely that the 30-year-old back will be able to hold up to that kind of workload. The Athletic’s Alec Lewis reported that the Vikings want more of a “by-committee approach” in 2025, and they traded for a solid committee back (Jordan Mason), so Jones is shaping up to be a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 type.

Pollard was the fantasy RB21 last season. He did benefit from the absence of Tyjae Spears, who missed a few games. Pollard’s workload increased from 16.4 touches per game with Spears to 24.2 touches in the five games that Spears missed. The arrival of Cam Ward should help the Titans’ offense and, in turn, Pollard’s touchdown prospects. He looks more like a low-end RB2 than his midrange RB3 ADP would indicate.

The Steelers spent a third-round pick on Johnson, and while rookie running backs in this range often have limited Year 1 roles, there’s room for meaningful production. Since 2010, third-round backs who played at least 14 games have averaged 145 touches for 730 total yards and 4.8 touchdowns—a useful baseline for Johnson’s 2025 outlook. He’ll split time with Jaylen Warren, who averaged 10.5 touches per game last year behind Najee Harris (17.6). How much more the Steelers are willing to put on Warren’s plate will ultimately determine Johnson’s weekly fantasy value. He’s likely to handle goal-line duties, which gives him sneaky touchdown upside in what could be a more balanced, efficient offense under offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. Johnson was an instinctive zone runner in college and finished 15th out of 67 backs in PFF rush grade among those with 100+ carries. He’s also a capable pass-catcher (22 receptions, 188 yards, 2 TDs as a junior) and showed more functional quickness on tape than he did in Combine testing. If he carves out 10–12 touches per game with red zone work, he could be a flex-worthy option with upside in deeper formats. If he fully assumes Harris's role, then RB2 numbers are well within reach.

Mayfield rounds out the Top 6, which is not something I ever thought I’d be saying after his career began to go sideways in his fourth season. But he has finished QB5 and QB9 the last two seasons, has one of the best receiving corps–Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, Jalen McMillan, and Cade Otton–in the league, and he can run a little bit (378 yards, 3 rushing touchdowns last season). My only concern is that he’s on his third offensive coordinator in three years, but new OC Josh Grizzard was promoted from within and was the pass game coordinator last season. Mayfield should post midrange QB1 numbers once again.

The Bears’ offense is trending up with the arrival of new HC Ben Johnson, who spent the last several years as the primary playcaller for the Detroit Lions. Keenan Allen (121 targets) is gone, and the Bears drafted Luther Burden in the second round as a replacement. Odunze caught 54 passes on 96 targets for 734 yards and 3 touchdowns as a rookie. While his 73rd-ranked yards per route run (among 88 qualified receivers) suggests he has room to grow in overall efficiency, he was elite in contested catch rate (2nd) and solid after the catch (29th in YAC per reception). With Allen gone, Odunze is primed to make a Jameson Williams-type leap in his second season and could perhaps surpass D.J. Moore to become the team’s primary target. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception says that his charting of Odunze “is still pointing us in an extremely positive direction.” With a growing role in what should be a much more productive offense, Odunze is a strong candidate to outproduce his low-end WR3 ADP.

Warren took a step back in 2024, finishing as the RB40 after an RB24 campaign the year before. When the Steelers traded away Najee Harris, it looked like Warren might finally see lead-back touches—but then Pittsburgh spent a third-round pick on Kaleb Johnson, a downhill runner who could take over Harris’s early-down and goal-line role almost entirely. With Arthur Smith calling plays, this backfield looks destined for a committee. Smith has a history of deploying multiple backs, and Johnson’s size and draft capital suggest he’ll be involved right away. That likely leaves Warren in a change-of-pace and passing-down role, which still holds fantasy value—he ranked 13th in yards per route run among running backs last season and remains one of the better receiving backs in the league. Warren is a solid RB3/FLEX in PPR and half-PPR formats, but his weekly ceiling may be limited unless Johnson stumbles or gets hurt.

Njoku missed six games in 2024 and has missed 11 games in the last four years. Otherwise, he’s been a great fantasy asset in Cleveland despite some suspect quarterback play. He was the TE5 on a per-game basis in 2024 while garnering the third-most targets per game (8.8) at his position. One way or another, I expect the QB play in Cleveland to improve, and that should benefit Njoku along with everyone else.

The warning signs were there in 2023, and they materialized in 2024. Kelce posted career-lows in receiving yards, touchdowns, YAC per reception, and yards per route run—clear indicators that age may finally be catching up to the future Hall of Famer. Even so, Kelce still finished as the TE6 overall and was the TE8 on a per-game basis, so while the days of him lapping the field at the position may be over, he remains a viable low-end TE1. With Rashee Rice back and Xavier Worthy emerging, there’s more competition for targets than in recent years, but Kelce still plays in a high-functioning offense with Patrick Mahomes at the helm. He’s no longer a positional cheat code, but he’s a solid veteran option for those who wait until the middle rounds to draft a tight end.

Hockenson returned from ACL/MCL surgery in Week 9 and was a serviceable but uninspiring fantasy option the rest of the way. In 10 games played, he failed to find the end zone and averaged just 7.1 half-PPR points per game, a midrange TE2 pace. That’s a far cry from his 2023 output (95 catches for 960 yards), and it remains to be seen if he can return to that level post-injury. The good news: He plays in a strong Kevin O’Connell offense, and rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy appears ready to run the show. The volume should be there, but whether Hockenson can capitalize hinges on his ability to recapture his pre-injury explosiveness and red zone involvement. He has top-5 upside, but with a TE5 ADP, there’s not a ton of value baked in—making him a slightly risky pick for drafters hoping for a full bounce-back.

Prior to missing the second half of the season with a concussion, Olave had his ups and downs, gaining 80+ yards in four of his six healthy games while failing to reach 12 yards in the other two games. In those six healthy games and in 2023, Olave has averaged 5.3 receptions for 68 yards and 0.27 touchdowns, which are high-end WR2 numbers. But that was with the competent Derek Carr at quarterback–the Saints are now looking at starting rookie Tyler Shough, so Olave’s upside depends on how quickly Shough can get up to NFL speed. Olave’s concussion history also gives me pause, since he has five known concussions since 2020.

Andrews got off to a painfully slow start in 2024, likely due in part to a preseason car accident that may have lingered into the regular season. Through four weeks, he managed just six catches for 65 yards on nine total targets. But once the season got rolling, so did Andrews. From Week 5 on, he played at a 64-catch, 795-yard, and 14.4-touchdown pace and finished as the fantasy TE5 during that stretch—even while playing just 63% of the snaps and averaging the 20th-most targets per game. That production speaks to his elite red-zone usage and chemistry with Lamar Jackson, but there are red flags. Isaiah Likely continues to push for a larger role, and head coach John Harbaugh publicly challenged Likely to “be an All-Pro” in 2025—something that may not coexist with a high-end fantasy season for Andrews. He turns 30 in September, but tight ends tend to age well, and the fact that Andrews was sixth in yards per route run speaks to his continued production. (Though he was 41st of 44 eligible tight ends in YAC/rec, another red flag.) He remains a strong bet for low-end TE1 numbers with week-winning upside if the touchdowns hold.

Murray finished as the QB11 last year after a seven-game, QB26 finish the year before. (He was QB10 on a per-game basis in 2023.) Last year, he played a full season after missing 18 games in his previous three seasons. He’s a good fantasy asset thanks to his quickness, speed, and ability to run the ball. He has averaged 30+ yards rushing in four straight seasons and has 16 rushing touchdowns in that span.

Skattebo lacks long speed, but he makes up for it with burst (89th percentile) and one of the most productive and well-rounded resumes in this year’s rookie class. He finished second only to Ashton Jeanty in PFF’s rushing grade and became the first FBS player since Christian McCaffrey in 2015 to post at least 1,500 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards in a single season. SNY’s Connor Hughes called Skattebo “a very good receiver out of the backfield” and suggested he “might be the Giants’ most talented receiving back.” With rookie Tyrone Tracy struggling in pass protection, there’s a clear path for Skattebo to earn the third-down role right away—and if his rushing ability translates, he could push for early-down work, too. Tracy started strong last year but faded late, averaging just 3.5 YPC from Week 12 to Week 18, and much of his receiving value in that span may shift to Skattebo. He’ll likely begin the year as a rotational piece, but Skattebo has the three-down skill set to carve out a larger role in short order. He’s an intriguing late-round pick in PPR leagues, especially for drafters using a Zero RB approach.

Diggs is 31 and coming off a torn ACL that cost him half of the 2024 season. Prior to his injury, he was averaging 62.0 yards per game, his lowest average since his third season in the league, but he was still on pace for his seventh straight 1,000-yard season had he played the full 17 games. Five months after his injury, he is reportedly ahead of schedule and is on track to be ready for the start of the season, which is key for his potential fantasy value. I'm not too alarmed by his 2024 numbers since he was joining a new team (Texans) in a lesser role, but his decline from 2022 (89.3 yards per game) to 2023 (69.6) was significant. As he enters his 11th-season, he's expected to continue a fairly steep drop off per Ryan Heath's excellent Age Curves Study. The one thing working in Diggs' favor, however, is the lack of target competition in New England. Hunter Henry and Demario Douglas led the Patriots with 66 catches apiece, so Diggs should see all the targets he can handle if he can still get open and can hold off rookie Kyle Williams. Per ESPN's Open Score, Diggs was as good (83) last year as he was in 2022 (83). It doesn't hurt that he'll have the up-and-coming Drake Maye throwing the ball, either. Diggs raised some eyebrows this offseason when video leaked of him on a boat holding a bag of pink powder was leaked, so that’s a situation to monitor.

Charbonnet remains one of the most intriguing Zero RB targets in 2025 drafts. He’s shown high-end RB1 upside when given the chance—in eight games over the past two seasons where he saw extended run, he averaged 18.5 touches for 95 total yards and 0.88 touchdowns. That’s elite production if (or more likely, when) Kenneth Walker misses time. Walker has already missed 10 games in his first three seasons, so it’s a good bet Charbonnet will get a few usable starts even if Walker stays relatively healthy. The Seahawks want to "establish the run," according to John Boyle of Seahawks.com, and that philosophy could translate into a more balanced workload even when Walker is active. Charbonnet’s passing-game chops gives him standalone RB3/FLEX appeal, especially in favorable matchups. As a ninth- or tenth-round pick in most formats, he’s a great stash with plug-and-play upside. If Walker misses any time, Charbonnet becomes an instant RB1 candidate in a run-committed offense.

Tracy finished as the RB28 in 2024, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. He didn’t take over as the Giants’ lead back until Week 5, and from that point forward, he was the fantasy RB14—delivering strong RB2 value for much of the season. His speed and vision made an early impact, and he ranked 9th among 47 qualified backs in yards before contact per attempt, a credit to both his burst and the offensive line. He didn't break many tackles or generate many yards after contact, however. The cracks started to show down the stretch. From Week 12 to Week 18, Tracy averaged just 3.5 yards per carry, and while his receiving work propped up his value during that span, that role could be in jeopardy. The Giants added Cam Skattebo, a dual-threat back who trailed only Ashton Jeanty in PFF’s collegiate rushing grade and has drawn praise as the team’s most talented receiving option out of the backfield. Tracy enters 2025 as the presumptive starter, but Skattebo looms as a serious threat to his workload. Tracy is a viable RB3/FLEX for now, but his grip on the job isn’t as firm as his 2024 finish might suggest.

Purdy was the QB12 last year but was QB9 on a per-game basis. In 2023, he was the QB6 and QB8 on a per-game basis, so he has settled into low-end QB1 status. He lost Deebo Samuel, who is a weapon, and the 49ers are expecting Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall to pick up the slack. Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle return, so Purdy has plenty of weapons to throw to. The 49ers lost a lot of talent in free agency, especially on the defensive side of the ball, so they may struggle to stop anyone, and that could lead to heavy passing volume for Purdy and Co.

Blue enters the 2025 season in a three-headed backfield with Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders, but he’s easily the most intriguing option of the trio. His 4.43 speed and 73rd percentile speed score (per Player Profiler) give him home-run potential that neither Williams nor Sanders can match at this point in their careers. While he ranked just 48th out of 67 qualified backs in PFF’s collegiate rushing grade last season, he stood out as a receiver, finishing 9th out of 64 in yards per route run. He’s not built to handle heavy volume between the tackles, but he doesn’t need to. Given the lackluster production and durability concerns of his backfield competition, Blue could carve out a valuable 10–12 touch-per-game role—especially in a pass-heavy, fast-paced Cowboys offense. He’s a high-upside late-round dart throw in PPR formats, with standalone FLEX value if the touches materialize early.

Goedert is entering his age-30 season, but that’s not a major concern for tight ends, who often age more gracefully than backs or receivers. The bigger issue is his health—he’s missed 15 games over the last three years. When on the field, however, he has consistently played at a low-end TE1 pace. Goedert believes that new offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo will unlock more of his game, saying, “What he sees in me in different ways that he’s going to get me the ball I’m really excited for.” There’s reason for optimism: Goedert was second among tight ends in yards per route run and sixth in YAC per reception last year, which suggests he’s been underutilized in Philly’s offense and is capable of significantly more production if the volume rises. He’s a potential value in the middle rounds for drafters willing to bet on better health and a more prominent role.

Trying to decipher the Jaguars’ backfield in 2024 was like reading tea leaves. Etienne opened the season as the starter, averaging 14.3 touches and a healthy 4.55 YPC through the first four games. But starting in Week 4, Tank Bigsby began to carve out a role, rushing for 90 yards against the Texans. He followed that with a breakout performance against the Colts in Week 5 (14 touches, 129 yards, 2 TDs) with Etienne active, and then dominated in Week 7 against the Patriots (26 carries, 118 yards, 2 TDs) while Etienne was sidelined with a hamstring injury. Bigsby ultimately averaged 4.6 yards per carry—nearly a full yard more than Etienne (3.7)—though Etienne maintained the passing-down role. The Jags also added Bhayshul Tuten in the fourth round of the draft, a superior athlete who adds yet another variable to this backfield. With Etienne healthy and still involved, and Tuten now in the mix, the Jaguars’ backfield could unfold in several ways.

Every fantasy discussion about Goff has to begin with his home/away splits. From 2023 to 2024, Jared Goff’s location splits were really stark: 21.3 fantasy points per game at home versus just 13.9 per game on the road. Those splits narrowed to 21.4 vs. 17.7 last season, so over the last two seasons he has averaged 21.5 at home versus 16.1 on the road. That’s basically the difference between Baker Mayfield (21.5) and Justin Herbert (16.1) last year, so it’s still pretty stark. Goff has 10 dome games in 2025, and his final six games are indoors. Start Goff at home, and start him in favorable (shaky defense) indoor road matchups. As Marcas Grant said on our pod last summer, “he’s an inside cat.” His ADP (QB10) is higher this year, so people are starting to recognize his fantasy value.

Call me a homer, but Love is a value as the QB17 off the board. He was the fantasy QB17 last year, and quarterback is deep, so I get the ADP, but he dealt with multiple injuries and still was QB13 on a per-game basis after finishing as the fantasy QB5 in 2023. Sure, the Packers are more run-heavy with Josh Jacobs in the offense, but the Packers drafted two receivers in the first three rounds, and that signals an emphasis on improving the passing game in 2025. Considering he was already the QB13 on a per-game basis last season, if he can improve from there and perhaps get back to his top-five production, he would be a massive value at his current ADP.

It’s put-up or shut-up time for Javonte Williams. Now two full seasons removed from his devastating knee injury, Williams told team reporter Tommy Yarrish that he “feels completely like [him]self” and that the healing process is “done.” That may be true physically, but the numbers suggest otherwise. As a rookie, Williams was a tackle-breaking machine—first in broken tackles per attempt (0.153), with strong marks in both yards before (2.2) and after (2.3) contact per attempt. But in 2024, he averaged just 1.9 yards before contact (20th percentile), 1.8 after contact (20th), and a meager 0.029 broken tackles per attempt (7th). He hasn’t looked like the same explosive runner he was pre-injury. The Cowboys added Miles Sanders in free agency and drafted Jaydon Blue, whose speed and receiving chops could quickly carve out a role. Williams hasn’t been promised anything, but he is getting first-team reps in early practices. He’ll need to fend off multiple challengers to return RB3/flex value, but he has the inside track—for now. Consider him a shaky RB3 with a short leash and limited upside.

Smith was an excellent draft value in 2024, smashing career-highs in targets (111), receptions (88), and yards (884) as a focal point of the Miami offense. He actually led the Dolphins in catches and was second in receiving yards. He finished TE4 and was the TE6 on a per-game basis. He was shaping up to be an excellent draft day value until the trade to Pittsburgh. It’s not a death knell to his fantasy value, but the lack of certainty in his role makes him a dicier TE1 bet. The good news, probably, is that he is reuniting with OC Arthur Smith, who coaxed a (pre-Miami) career-high 50-582-3 season out of Smith in Atlanta, which was good enough for a TE17 finish. But Pat Freiermuth just signed a healthy extension, and there’s a change at quarterback to Aaron Rodgers, so it’s not clear how the targets will be distributed among the Steelers’ top pass-catching options.

Dobbins bounced back in 2024, finishing as the RB23 despite playing in only 12 games. On a per-game basis, he averaged 13.9 half-PPR points, good for RB17—solid production in a year where he showed flashes of his pre-injury form. The Chargers opted not to re-sign him, and he now lands in Denver, where he'll compete in a Sean Payton offense that could lean on rookie RJ Harvey. Dobbins was a tackle-breaking machine last year, ranking 2nd (behind only Derrick Henry) in broken tackles per attempt. He also finished 7th in yards after contact per attempt, though a surprising dip in PFF’s rush grade (43rd of 57) raises some eyebrows. He added 32 receptions, but his 54th-place finish (out of 59) in yards per route run suggests limited upside in the passing game. The backfield split with Harvey remains unclear, but Dobbins has a real shot to lead this backfield early. If he wins the starting job outright, he offers RB2 value with weekly touchdown upside. At worst, he’s a high-end handcuff with standalone FLEX appeal in a potentially run-friendly system.

Kincaid followed up a promising TE15 rookie campaign with a disappointing sophomore season, finishing as the TE26 overall and TE21 on a per-game basis. He missed a few games, but even when active, his usage took a step back—his yards per game, receptions per game, and catch rate all declined from his rookie year. Despite the underwhelming second season, the ingredients for a breakout remain. Kincaid is an athletic pass-catcher operating in a high-powered offense with Josh Allen at the helm, and there’s still no target-dominating WR1 on the roster. If he can rebound and command consistent volume, he has the tools to emerge as a TE1 option in 2025.

Maye is intriguing since he averaged low-end QB1 numbers–17.7 points per game–in his nine full-ish games. The Patriots added a talented yet aging receiver in Stefon Diggs, who could serve as an adequate WR1 if his ACL recovery continues to go well. New England also added big-play receiver Kyle Williams in the third round.

After finishing as the TE8 in 2023, Ferguson took a step back in 2024, ending the season as the TE28 overall and TE25 on a per-game basis. He missed a few games, and more importantly, didn’t catch a single touchdown—something that’s unlikely to repeat. With Dak Prescott under center, Ferguson averaged 7.5 half-PPR points per game, which is solid high-end TE2 production. The arrival of George Pickens could put a squeeze on Ferguson’s targets, but assuming both he and Prescott stay healthy, positive touchdown regression should push him back into the low-end TE1 conversation. He’s not flashy, but he’s a capable late-round option at a volatile position.

Stroud suffered a sophomore slump in 2024, finishing as the QB19 with the No. 27 per-game average among quarterbacks. As a rookie, he finished QB12 and had the No. 11 per-game average. It’s pretty common for quarterbacks who thrive as rookies to have a subpar second season now that the rest of the league has plenty of film to figure them out. The Texans lost Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell is unlikely to contribute in 2025, but they did trade for Christian Kirk and added both Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel in the Draft, so Stroud should have enough weapons to throw to, especially with Nico Collins emerging as a star receiver.

Benson flashed in limited work as a rookie, turning 63 carries into 291 yards (4.6 YPC) while posting above-average marks in both yards before and after contact per attempt. Though he played behind James Conner for most of the year, head coach Jonathan Gannon made waves this offseason by saying, “If (Trey Benson) takes the necessary jump from Year 1 to Year 2, I think we have two starting backs.” Gannon even referred to teams with “two '1s’,” suggesting a potential 1A/1B split with Conner in 2025. That’s big news, especially considering Conner is entering his age-30 season and the Cardinals may want to lighten his load to preserve his health. If Benson can seize a larger role, he could return weekly flex value and be a league-winner if Conner misses time. With a 12th-round ADP, Benson is one of the better late-round dart throws at the position and should be firmly on the radar of Zero RB drafters.

With Jordan Mason traded and Christian McCaffrey looking healthy heading into the season, Guerendo enters 2025 as one of the top handcuff running backs in fantasy football, provided he can hold off fifth-round rookie Jordan James for the RB2 job in San Francisco. Guerendo showed plenty of juice when given the opportunity last year, turning in 75, 102, 99, and 128 total yards in the four games where he played at least 50% of the snaps. He also ripped off 99 yards on just 10 carries in a limited role (26% of snaps) against Seattle in Week 6. He was also efficient as a receiver, posting 1.42 yards per route run—good for the 81st percentile among running backs—which bodes well for his three-down potential if pressed into service. McCaffrey has missed 20 games over the last three seasons, so the path to touches is clearer than it might seem on paper. Pending the camp battle with James, Guerendo is an elite handcuff and a perfect Zero RB target with league-winning upside if McCaffrey were to miss time.

Mims is an intriguing receiver going in the WR5/WR6 range. He’s entering his third season after a strong finish in 2024. From Week 11 to Week 18, he averaged 4.0 receptions for 62 yards and 0.86 touchdowns on 4.7 targets per game. He only played 33% of the snaps in that span, and he isn’t likely to keep up that touchdown production without a bump in snaps, but he deserves to play more. In that span, he had the 18th-highest PFF receiving grade and posted the highest yards per route run (4.54). If his snaps don’t increase, he’s unlikely to become a major fantasy factor, but more playing time could result in fantasy-starter type numbers. Keep an eye on third-rounder Pat Bryant this summer as his progress could impede a potential Mims’ breakout season.

Pitts has finished TE13 and TE14 the past two seasons, and while those are usable numbers in today’s tight end landscape, it’s hard to shake the sense that he’s being underutilized. His 2024 campaign was particularly frustrating—Michael Penix targeted him on just 9.5% of his pass attempts, a rate that trailed not just Drake London and Bijan Robinson, but also Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud. That doesn't bode well considering Kirk Cousins targeted Pitts more frequently (14.1%). Pitts remains a great athlete, but his role hasn’t evolved since his promising rookie season. With questions around quarterback consistency and a crowded target tree, he looks like a low-ceiling TE2 until we see a tangible shift in usage.

Working backward, Smith finished QB15, QB19, and QB6 in the last three seasons. On the plus side, he has thrown for the third-most yardage (12,226), the eighth-most touchdowns (71), and has rushed for the 10th-most yards (793) in the last three seasons combined. He also has the third-most starts (49) in that span, so his solid numbers aren’t entirely surprising. He has a great tight end in Brock Bowers and a solid secondary option in Jakobi Meyers, and the Raiders added Jack Bech and Dont’e Thornton–who tore up minicamp–in the draft. Fantasy-wise, he’ll be in the low-end QB2 mix this summer, but could surprise with a low-end QB1 season.

Otton has steadily improved in each of his three seasons, culminating in a 47-600-4 campaign in 2024 that resulted in a TE13 finish. While he hasn't delivered any truly dominant stretches, he's carved out a consistent role in a solid offense led by Baker Mayfield, who has quietly played excellent football the past two years. Otton finished 18th in yards after catch per reception and 28th (out of 45 qualifying tight ends) in yards per route run, so while he’s not the most explosive option at the position, he’s efficient enough to maintain mid-range TE2 value with some weekly TE1 upside in favorable matchups.

Allen’s rookie year didn’t exactly move the needle—he turned 92 carries into 334 yards (3.6 YPC) and two touchdowns, while adding 19 catches for 148 yards and another score through the air. His advanced metrics backed up the surface stats: he was generally mediocre across the board, lacking the burst or tackle-breaking chops to stand out. Still, there’s reason for cautious optimism. The Jets reportedly want to model their offense after Ben Johnson’s scheme in Detroit, with Breece Hall in the Jahmyr Gibbs role and Allen handling the David Montgomery duties. If that plan sticks, Allen could find himself in a valuable early-down and goal-line role in what should be a more efficient offense in 2025. With an ADP in the RB50s, Allen offers intriguing upside if the Jets’ coaching staff follows through on their vision—and if he proves capable of handling the Montgomery role. In Hall’s lone missed game, Allen turned 15 touches into 81 total yards. He’s a worthwhile late-round flier with low-end RB2 potential if things break right.

Stafford was the QB26 last season after a QB15 finish the year before. He offers nothing as a runner, and last year’s poor production was probably more about Cooper Kupp’s drop off in production and Puka Nacua’s shortened season. If Nacua can remain healthy, and Stafford vibes quickly with Davante Adams, then Stafford should be able to get back into the midrange QB2 mix. In Sean McVay we trust.

Young was benched after Week 2, but when his backup, Andy Dalton, was injured late in Week 7, he got the starting job back. From that point on, he showed serious signs of competency, averaging a solid 210 yards passing and 1.5 touchdowns to go along with increased production as a runner (22 yards, 0.5 touchdowns per game). The resulting 18.0 fantasy points per game were enough to make him the QB12 from Week 8 through Week 18. Drafters are justifiably cautious–he’s being drafted as a high-end QB3–but he may hold value there if he can carry over his progress to 2025, continues to run the ball, and can vibe quickly with first-round draft pick Tetairoa McMillan.

Penix took over for Kirk Cousins late in the season, drawing the final three starts and posting an average of 246 yards and 1.0 touchdown as a passer. He was the fantasy QB18 in that span. He doesn’t offer much as a runner, so as a pocket passer, he’ll have to be very productive to turn into a fantasy starter. Drafters peg him as a low-end QB2/high-end QB3, and I tend to agree.

The Browns doubled down at running back in the draft, selecting Quinshon Judkins in the second round and Dylan Sampson in the fourth. This doesn’t exactly come as a ringing endorsement for Jerome Ford despite his stellar 5.4 yards per carry last season. Of the two rookies, Judkins may have the superior athletic profile, but Sampson isn’t far behind—he boasts 4.51 speed and a 66th percentile burst score (per Player Profiler). More importantly, he was fifth in this year’s class in PFF rush grade, four spots ahead of Judkins. Sampson was incredibly productive in 2024, leading the SEC in rushing yards per game (114.7) and rushing touchdowns (22). He runs with urgency and decisiveness, and his resume suggests he could be more than just a change-of-pace option. Given Judkins’ off-field concerns—his July arrest could impact his availability—Sampson could have a real shot to win the starting job outright if he can overtake Ford. He’s a high-upside flier with the potential to return weekly FLEX value early and grow into an RB2 if he takes over this backfield.

The 32-year-old Hopkins averaged a career-low 38.1 receiving yards per game. His yards per route run (1.71) was solid (but not great) for a receiver but it was Hopkins' lowest mark since 2016. He can still contribute as a possession receiver, but his days of elite fantasy WR1 (or even WR2) production are likely over, especially playing for the run-oriented Ravens.

Legette turned in disappointing production for a first-round rookie wideout, finishing as the WR64 despite playing in a Carolina offense desperate for playmakers. He saw a decent workload—81 targets—but managed just 49 catches for 497 yards and 4 touchdowns. His 10.1 yards per reception ranked near the bottom among qualifying receivers, and there were few signs of week-to-week consistency. With Tetairoa McMillan arriving via the draft and Adam Thielen still hanging around, it’s hard to see Legette’s role expanding significantly in 2025. Even if the Panthers’ offense improves under new leadership, it looks like Legette is fighting for the WR3 role at best. He’s off the fantasy radar outside of deeper leagues and dynasty formats unless we see a major shift in usage or efficiency.

After flashing significant upside in his second and third seasons--mainly when other Charger receivers were injured--Palmer's 2024 production was disappointing given the departures of both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Palmer failed to outproduce Quentin Johnston, who bested Palmer in receptions (55 to 39), yards (711 to 584), and touchdowns (8 to 1). In Buffalo, Palmer replaces Mack Hollins, who signed a two-year deal to join the Patriots.

Rodgers finished as the fantasy QB16 last season, though he was the QB23 on a per-game basis (14.5 points per game). In his previous full season, with the Packers, he was the fantasy QB15 with the QB23 per-game average, so he’s settled into low-end QB2-type numbers on a weekly basis. He joins a Pittsburgh team that is short on playmakers in the passing game, though the Steelers did trade for both DK Metcalf and Jonnu Smith. Pat Freiermuth, Calvin Austin III, Robert Woods, and Roman Wilson round out the pass-catchers. Rodgers doesn’t have a history with any of these guys, the Steelers’ organization, or play-caller Arthur Smith, so it’s unlikely that this all combines to anything more than what we’ve seen from him in his last two full seasons.