Draft Note by John Paulsen
Williams took a meaningful step forward in Year 2, improving from a solid QB14 rookie finish to the overall QB6 at 18.8 points per game, a 3.6-point-per-game increase. He showed the ability to spike with a 37.7-point explosion, and demonstrated that Ben Johnson's system fits his skillset. The rushing contribution (23.2 yards per start, three touchdowns) gives him a nice floor that his rookie season didn't always provide. The advanced stat concerns are real, though. His CPOE sat at the 16th percentile. He can make plays, but he remains an inconsistent thrower, and losing D.J. Moore, his veteran security blanket, matters. Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland, and second-year Luther Burden III all have upside, however. Year 2 in Johnson's system should help, and the ceiling is firmly top-five if the accuracy improves and the receiver group gels. He's going as a midrange QB1, which means you're paying for the upside while accepting the inconsistency. If the CPOE improves to match his EPA (62nd percentile), he's a borderline value. If it doesn't, he may be hard-pressed to match his ADP.
Caleb Williams
- QB
- , Chicago Bears
- 25
- 215 lbs
- 6' 1"
- USC
- 70
- 1
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Courtney Cronin on X
·Aug 18, 2025 · 9:13 AM EDT
2026 Draft note
Williams took a meaningful step forward in Year 2, improving from a solid QB14 rookie finish to the overall QB6 at 18.8 points per game, a 3.6-point-per-game increase. He showed the ability to spike with a 37.7-point explosion, and demonstrated that Ben Johnson's system fits his skillset. The rushing contribution (23.2 yards per start, three touchdowns) gives him a nice floor that his rookie season didn't always provide. The advanced stat concerns are real, though. His CPOE sat at the 16th percentile. He can make plays, but he remains an inconsistent thrower, and losing D.J. Moore, his veteran security blanket, matters. Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland, and second-year Luther Burden III all have upside, however. Year 2 in Johnson's system should help, and the ceiling is firmly top-five if the accuracy improves and the receiver group gels. He's going as a midrange QB1, which means you're paying for the upside while accepting the inconsistency. If the CPOE improves to match his EPA (62nd percentile), he's a borderline value. If it doesn't, he may be hard-pressed to match his ADP.
2026 Strength of Schedule - CHI
| W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 | W14 | W15 | W16 | W17 | W18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 @CAR | 1 MIN | 3 PHI | 28 NYJ | 10 @GB | 25 @ATL | 17 NE | 9 @SEA | 29 TB | BYE | 8 NO | 26 @DET | 11 JAX | 22 @MIA | 7 @BUF | 10 GB | 26 DET | 1 @MIN |
Schedule difficulty based on schedule-adjusted, positional defensive ranking. Top DEF = 1, bottom DEF = 32.
Game Stats
| Wk | Opp | Comp | Att | PaYds | PaTD | Int | YPA | YPR | RuAtt | Yds | TD | Fum | YPC | Pts | Snaps | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 21 | 35 | 210 | 1 | 0 | 6.00 | 10.00 | 6 | 58 | 1 | 0 | 9.67 | 24.2 | 67/67 | 100.0% |
| 2 | @DET | 19 | 30 | 207 | 2 | 1 | 6.90 | 10.89 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 5.40 | 17.0 | 57/68 | 83.8% |
| 3 | DAL | 19 | 28 | 298 | 4 | 0 | 10.64 | 15.68 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2.40 | 29.1 | 59/59 | 100.0% |
| 4 | @LV | 22 | 37 | 212 | 1 | 1 | 5.73 | 9.64 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1.62 | 11.8 | 68/68 | 100.0% |
| 5 | BYE | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | @WAS | 17 | 29 | 252 | 1 | 0 | 8.69 | 14.82 | 4 | -2 | 1 | 0 | -0.50 | 19.9 | 64/64 | 100.0% |
| 7 | NO | 15 | 26 | 172 | 0 | 1 | 6.62 | 11.47 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 0 | -0.50 | 4.7 | 69/69 | 100.0% |
| 8 | @BAL | 25 | 38 | 285 | 0 | 1 | 7.50 | 11.40 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 8.00 | 11.8 | 63/63 | 100.0% |
| 9 | @CIN | 20 | 34 | 280 | 3 | 0 | 8.24 | 14.00 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 10.60 | 36.7 | 80/80 | 100.0% |
| 10 | NYG | 20 | 36 | 220 | 1 | 0 | 6.11 | 11.00 | 8 | 63 | 1 | 0 | 7.88 | 25.1 | 68/68 | 100.0% |
| 11 | @MIN | 16 | 32 | 193 | 0 | 0 | 6.03 | 12.06 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 6.50 | 10.3 | 75/75 | 100.0% |
| 12 | PIT | 19 | 35 | 239 | 3 | 0 | 6.83 | 12.58 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 5.25 | 21.7 | 65/65 | 100.0% |
| 13 | @PHI | 17 | 36 | 154 | 1 | 1 | 4.28 | 9.06 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2.60 | 9.5 | 87/87 | 100.0% |
| 14 | @GB | 19 | 35 | 186 | 2 | 1 | 5.31 | 9.79 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 3.75 | 14.9 | 70/70 | 100.0% |
| 15 | CLE | 17 | 28 | 242 | 2 | 0 | 8.64 | 14.24 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 4.33 | 19.0 | 66/66 | 100.0% |
| 16 | GB | 19 | 34 | 250 | 2 | 0 | 7.35 | 13.16 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 10.00 | 21.0 | 64/64 | 100.0% |
| 17 | @SF | 25 | 42 | 330 | 2 | 0 | 7.86 | 13.20 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 3.60 | 23.0 | 66/66 | 100.0% |
| 18 | DET | 20 | 33 | 212 | 2 | 1 | 6.42 | 10.60 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.00 | 16.6 | 55/55 | 100.0% |
| Per game | 19.41 | 33.41 | 231.88 | 1.59 | 0.41 | 6.94 | 11.95 | 4.53 | 22.53 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 4.97 | 18.60 | 67.24/67.88 | 99.05% | |
| Totals | 330 | 568 | 3942 | 27 | 7 | 6.94 | 11.95 | 77 | 383 | 3 | 1 | 4.97 | 316.18 | 1143/1154 | 99.05% | |
