Draft Note by John Paulsen
Every fantasy discussion about Goff has to begin with his home/away splits. From 2023 to 2024, Jared Goff’s location splits were really stark: 21.3 fantasy points per game at home versus just 13.9 per game on the road. Those splits narrowed to 21.4 vs. 17.7 last season, so over the last two seasons he has averaged 21.5 at home versus 16.1 on the road. That’s basically the difference between Baker Mayfield (21.5) and Justin Herbert (16.1) last year, so it’s still pretty stark. Goff has 10 dome games in 2025, and his final six games are indoors. Start Goff at home, and start him in favorable (shaky defense) indoor road matchups. As Marcas Grant said on our pod last summer, “he’s an inside cat.” His ADP (QB10) is higher this year, so people are starting to recognize his fantasy value.
Jared Goff
- QB
- , Detroit Lions
- 31
- 217 lbs
- 6' 4"
- California
- 109
- 1
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Draft note
Every fantasy discussion about Goff has to begin with his home/away splits. From 2023 to 2024, Jared Goff’s location splits were really stark: 21.3 fantasy points per game at home versus just 13.9 per game on the road. Those splits narrowed to 21.4 vs. 17.7 last season, so over the last two seasons he has averaged 21.5 at home versus 16.1 on the road. That’s basically the difference between Baker Mayfield (21.5) and Justin Herbert (16.1) last year, so it’s still pretty stark. Goff has 10 dome games in 2025, and his final six games are indoors. Start Goff at home, and start him in favorable (shaky defense) indoor road matchups. As Marcas Grant said on our pod last summer, “he’s an inside cat.” His ADP (QB10) is higher this year, so people are starting to recognize his fantasy value.
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Scouting report
2025 Strength of Schedule - DET
| W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 | W14 | W15 | W16 | W17 | W18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 @GB | 1 CHI | 23 @BAL | 12 CLE | 28 @CIN | 8 @KC | 31 TB | BYE | 15 MIN | 7 @WAS | 4 @PHI | 9 NYG | 5 GB | 29 DAL | 18 @LAR | 3 PIT | 15 @MIN | 1 @CHI |
Schedule difficulty based on schedule-adjusted, positional defensive ranking. Top DEF = 1, bottom DEF = 32.
Game Stats
| Wk | Opp | Comp | Att | PaYds | PaTD | Int | YPA | YPR | RuAtt | Yds | TD | Fum | YPC | Pts | Snaps | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAR | 18 | 28 | 217 | 1 | 1 | 7.75 | 12.06 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7.00 | 11.4 | 61/61 | 100.0% |
| 2 | TB | 34 | 55 | 307 | 0 | 2 | 5.58 | 9.03 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2.50 | 8.8 | 85/85 | 100.0% |
| 3 | @ARI | 18 | 23 | 199 | 2 | 1 | 8.65 | 11.06 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2.00 | 14.6 | 68/68 | 100.0% |
| 4 | SEA | 18 | 18 | 292 | 2 | 0 | 16.22 | 16.22 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 0 | -1.00 | 26.2 | 53/53 | 100.0% |
| 5 | BYE | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | @DAL | 18 | 25 | 315 | 3 | 0 | 12.60 | 17.50 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.67 | 25.1 | 57/68 | 83.8% |
| 7 | @MIN | 22 | 25 | 280 | 2 | 0 | 11.20 | 12.73 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 0 | -2.00 | 18.8 | 57/57 | 100.0% |
| 8 | TEN | 12 | 15 | 85 | 3 | 0 | 5.67 | 7.08 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.00 | 15.5 | 42/48 | 87.5% |
| 9 | @GB | 18 | 22 | 145 | 1 | 0 | 6.59 | 8.06 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 0 | -0.67 | 9.6 | 57/57 | 100.0% |
| 10 | @HOU | 15 | 30 | 240 | 2 | 5 | 8.00 | 16.00 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2.00 | 7.8 | 65/65 | 100.0% |
| 11 | JAX | 24 | 29 | 412 | 4 | 0 | 14.21 | 17.17 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 5.25 | 34.6 | 63/79 | 79.7% |
| 12 | @IND | 26 | 36 | 269 | 0 | 0 | 7.47 | 10.35 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 10.8 | 72/72 | 100.0% |
| 13 | CHI | 21 | 34 | 221 | 2 | 0 | 6.50 | 10.52 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.00 | 16.9 | 70/70 | 100.0% |
| 14 | GB | 32 | 41 | 283 | 3 | 1 | 6.90 | 8.84 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1.75 | 22.0 | 80/80 | 100.0% |
| 15 | BUF | 38 | 59 | 494 | 5 | 0 | 8.37 | 13.00 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 6.50 | 41.1 | 79/79 | 100.0% |
| 16 | @CHI | 23 | 32 | 336 | 3 | 0 | 10.50 | 14.61 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1.00 | 25.3 | 65/65 | 100.0% |
| 17 | @SF | 26 | 34 | 303 | 3 | 0 | 8.91 | 11.65 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 0 | -1.00 | 25.8 | 71/71 | 100.0% |
| 18 | MIN | 27 | 33 | 231 | 1 | 2 | 7.00 | 8.56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 9.2 | 68/68 | 100.0% |
| Per game | 22.94 | 31.71 | 272.29 | 2.18 | 0.71 | 8.59 | 11.87 | 2.06 | 3.29 | 0 | 0 | 1.60 | 19.03 | 65.47/67.41 | 97.12% | |
| Totals | 390 | 539 | 4629 | 37 | 12 | 8.59 | 11.87 | 35 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 1.60 | 323.46 | 1113/1146 | 97.12% | |
