Stafford's 2025 season was a remarkable reversal. After a miserable 2024 in which he finished QB18 overall—QB26 on a per-game basis—with seven games under 10 fantasy points, he turned around and posted the QB3 finish at 20.2 points per game, with nine games over 20 and just one below 10. This, after an offseason where all we heard was that he had a balky back. The 46 passing touchdowns were the most in the NFL and his EPA per dropback (91st percentile) was elite. Puka Nacua and Davante Adams give him one of the best receiver duos in the league, and Terrance Ferguson is emerging as a weapon at tight end. The catch is everything you'd expect from a 38-year-old pocket passer with zero rushing upside (1.3 yards per start). Stafford is entirely touchdown-dependent, and 46 TDs in a season is not a sustainable baseline. A regression to the mid-30s is the realistic expectation, which would shave several points per game off his 2025 average. He's going as a high-end QB2, which is a fair price given the talent around him, but not a bargain given that you're projecting off a career-outlier touchdown total. Draft him as a reliable QB2 with a chance to finish as a low-end QB1.