Draft Note by John Paulsen
Josh Allen finished as the QB1 last year after finishing QB2 in 2022. He’s currently the first quarterback off the board, which is a bit surprising since he’s lost both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason. They have been replaced by Curtis Samuel and second-round pick Keon Coleman, so it looks like a downgrade in the receiver room. The other variable is Joe Brady as offensive coordinator. In nine games under Brady (including two playoff games), Allen averaged 233 yards and 1.56 touchdowns, with 47 yards and 1.22 touchdowns as a runner. This works out to 26.8 fantasy points per game thanks to those eye-popping rushing numbers. His averages in the first 10 weeks under Ken Dorsey: 260 yards and 1.90 touchdowns, with 25 yards and 0.70 touchdowns as a runner. That works out to 22.5 fantasy points per game. Under Brady, his rush attempts were 9.2 per game compared to 4.8 per game under Dorsey, so it’s clear that his rushing floor is pretty high heading into 2024.
Josh Allen
- QB
- , Buffalo Bills
- 28
- 237 lbs
- 6' 5"
- 27
- 1
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Draft note
Josh Allen finished as the QB1 last year after finishing QB2 in 2022. He’s currently the first quarterback off the board, which is a bit surprising since he’s lost both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason. They have been replaced by Curtis Samuel and second-round pick Keon Coleman, so it looks like a downgrade in the receiver room. The other variable is Joe Brady as offensive coordinator. In nine games under Brady (including two playoff games), Allen averaged 233 yards and 1.56 touchdowns, with 47 yards and 1.22 touchdowns as a runner. This works out to 26.8 fantasy points per game thanks to those eye-popping rushing numbers. His averages in the first 10 weeks under Ken Dorsey: 260 yards and 1.90 touchdowns, with 25 yards and 0.70 touchdowns as a runner. That works out to 22.5 fantasy points per game. Under Brady, his rush attempts were 9.2 per game compared to 4.8 per game under Dorsey, so it’s clear that his rushing floor is pretty high heading into 2024.
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2024 Strength of Schedule - BUF
| W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 | W14 | W15 | W16 | W17 | W18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 ARI | 12 @MIA | 27 JAX | 6 @BAL | 30 @HOU | 1 @NYJ | 20 TEN | 13 @SEA | 12 MIA | 10 @IND | 14 KC | BYE | 7 SF | 28 @LAR | 31 @DET | 17 NE | 1 NYJ | 17 @NE |
Schedule difficulty based on schedule-adjusted, positional defensive ranking. Top DEF = 1, bottom DEF = 32.
Game Stats
| Wk | Opp | Comp | Att | PaYds | PaTD | Int | YPA | YPR | RuAtt | Yds | TD | Fum | YPC | Pts | Snaps | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @NYJ | 29 | 41 | 236 | 1 | 3 | 5.76 | 8.14 | 6 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 6.00 | 9.0 | 69/69 | 100.0% |
| 2 | LV | 31 | 37 | 274 | 3 | 0 | 7.41 | 8.84 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2.33 | 23.7 | 74/78 | 94.9% |
| 3 | @WAS | 20 | 32 | 218 | 1 | 1 | 6.81 | 10.90 | 3 | 46 | 1 | 0 | 15.33 | 21.3 | 57/68 | 83.8% |
| 4 | MIA | 21 | 25 | 320 | 4 | 0 | 12.80 | 15.24 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 4.25 | 36.5 | 50/58 | 86.2% |
| 5 | JAX | 27 | 40 | 359 | 2 | 1 | 8.98 | 13.30 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 3.50 | 27.8 | 60/60 | 100.0% |
| 6 | NYG | 19 | 30 | 169 | 2 | 1 | 5.63 | 8.89 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 5.50 | 13.9 | 59/61 | 96.7% |
| 7 | @NE | 27 | 41 | 265 | 2 | 1 | 6.46 | 9.81 | 7 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 2.43 | 24.3 | 71/71 | 100.0% |
| 8 | TB | 31 | 40 | 324 | 2 | 1 | 8.10 | 10.45 | 7 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 5.86 | 29.1 | 69/69 | 100.0% |
| 9 | @CIN | 26 | 38 | 258 | 1 | 1 | 6.79 | 9.92 | 8 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 5.50 | 24.7 | 58/58 | 100.0% |
| 10 | DEN | 15 | 26 | 177 | 1 | 2 | 6.81 | 11.80 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 3.25 | 14.4 | 54/54 | 100.0% |
| 11 | NYJ | 20 | 32 | 275 | 3 | 1 | 8.59 | 13.75 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | 22.5 | 72/76 | 94.7% |
| 12 | @PHI | 29 | 51 | 339 | 2 | 1 | 6.65 | 11.69 | 9 | 81 | 2 | 0 | 9.00 | 39.7 | 95/95 | 100.0% |
| 13 | BYE | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 14 | @KC | 23 | 42 | 233 | 1 | 1 | 5.55 | 10.13 | 10 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 3.20 | 20.5 | 77/77 | 100.0% |
| 15 | DAL | 7 | 15 | 94 | 1 | 0 | 6.27 | 13.43 | 8 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 3.00 | 16.2 | 61/68 | 89.7% |
| 16 | @LAC | 15 | 21 | 237 | 1 | 1 | 11.29 | 15.80 | 5 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 3.00 | 25.0 | 55/55 | 100.0% |
| 17 | NE | 15 | 30 | 169 | 0 | 1 | 5.63 | 11.27 | 11 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 4.00 | 21.2 | 67/69 | 97.1% |
| 18 | @MIA | 30 | 38 | 359 | 2 | 2 | 9.45 | 11.97 | 15 | 67 | 0 | 1 | 4.47 | 23.1 | 78/78 | 100.0% |
| Per game | 22.65 | 34.06 | 253.29 | 1.71 | 1.06 | 7.44 | 11.18 | 6.53 | 30.82 | 0.88 | 0.24 | 4.72 | 23.10 | 66.24/68.47 | 96.66% | |
| Totals | 385 | 579 | 4306 | 29 | 18 | 7.44 | 11.18 | 111 | 524 | 15 | 4 | 4.72 | 392.64 | 1126/1164 | 96.66% | |
