Thomas’s sophomore collapse was as complete as any in recent memory. He went from the overall WR4 finish as a rookie–14.2 points per game, seven games over 15 points, genuine WR1 production–to WR44 overall at 8.3 points per game in 2025. The underlying 2025 metrics are alarming: a 2nd-percentile ESPN CATCH score, a 10th-percentile ESPN YAC score, a 17th-percentile OPEN score, and a 1st-percentile OVERALL score–literally the worst in the 110-receiver sample. The 2024 version of Thomas clearly existed, we all saw it. The production was real and the 16-game sample was big enough to trust. However, he was significantly better with Mac Jones (86 yards per game) than he was with Trevor Lawrence (66 yards per game) as a rookie, and his two-season averages with Lawrence at quarterback aren’t special: 3.6 catches for 57 yards and 0.30 touchdowns over a 23-game sample. He's going as a low-end WR3, so drafters are betting that he has some (positive) regression to his rookie production. Unless the camp reports are glowing this summer, given his lackluster production with Lawrence, I’ll be placing my Jacksonville bets elsewhere.