• A.J. Brown

  • WR
  • , Tennessee Titans
  • 23
  • 226 lbs
  • 6' 0"
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165105185260
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Draft note
by John Paulsen
In five full games with Marcus Mariota at quarterback, Brown averaged 2.4 catches for 50 yards and 0.40 touchdowns. That’s not bad production for a rookie, but he was only averaging 3.8 targets during that span. Once Ryan Tannehill took over as the starter in Week 7, Brown’s numbers jumped to 3.8-78-0.60 on 6.1 targets per game, which equates to a 60.8-1248-9.6 pace, or about what DeAndre Hopkins scored last year as the No. 6 fantasy receiver. However, he was quiet in the postseason, catching just five passes for 64 yards and no scores in three games, though he faced the Patriots and the Chiefs, who allowed the fewest points to opposing receivers last season. The other concern is that Ryan Tannehill was hyper efficient and is likely to see his YPA and touchdown percentage regress in 2020. Still, Brown should be better in his second season and any improvement could offset Tannehill’s regression. He looks like a good value in the fourth round.

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Scouting report

by Scot Berggren

TEN WR A.J. Brown - 2020 Fantasy Football Outlook

Fantasy Upside
What a rookie season A.J. Brown posted, especially after Ryan Tannehill took over at QB. Despite not playing 70% of the snaps in a game until Week 10, Brown finished with 52 grabs for 1,051 yards and eight TDs. He averaged a whopping 20 yards per catch, eclipsing the century mark in four of the final six regular season contests with five touchdowns during that stretch.

Fantasy Downside
While Brown’s draft stock is trending up in a big way, it’s possible he’ll see more regression than any other WR. His amazing 12.4 yards per target is 25% better than the all-time career mark shared by Tyreek Hill and Tyler Lockett, so expect that average to take a dip. Brown scored once every 10.5 targets during the regular season but in the playoffs his target share fell to 15%, which was behind Corey Davis.

Bottom Line
Brown had a huge second half of ’19 and has already become a top-10 fantasy WR. However, Tennessee remains a run-first offense and had great success with that formula last season, so don’t expect to see Ryan Tannehill’s pass numbers to increase much, if any. Brown should again finish with over 1,000 yards and lead his team in receptions but look for him to receive all kinds of attention from defensive coordinators.

2020 Strength of Schedule - TEN

W1W2W3W4W5W6W7W8W9W10W11W12W13W14W15W16W17
13
@DEN
11
JAX
26
@MIN
7
PIT
2
BUF
22
HOU
BYE25
@CIN
3
CHI
18
IND
10
@BAL
18
@IND
12
CLE
11
@JAX
32
DET
16
@GB
22
@HOU

Schedule difficulty based on schedule-adjusted, positional defensive ranking. Top DEF = 1, bottom DEF = 32.

2019 Game Stats

WeekOppRecRecYdsRecTDTgtsYPRRuAttRuYdsRuTDFumYPCSTDPPRSnaps%
1@CLE31000433.3300000.0010.013.026/6142.6%
2IND325058.3300000.002.55.527/6045.0%
3@JAX14054.0000000.000.41.440/8050.0%
4@ATL3942331.3300000.0021.424.428/6443.8%
5BUF2270213.5000000.002.74.740/6264.5%
6@DEN2230411.5000000.002.34.340/7057.1%
7LAC6640810.671-200-2.006.212.239/6460.9%
8TB211135.5000000.007.19.139/6361.9%
9@CAR4810720.2500000.008.112.152/7569.3%
10KC1170417.0000000.001.72.749/5294.2%
11BYE--------------
12JAX41351533.7500000.0019.523.537/5369.8%
13@IND3450415.0000000.004.57.554/6090.0%
14@LV51532730.601130013.0028.633.652/6283.9%
15HOU811411314.2500000.0017.425.461/6791.0%
16NO1340234.001491049.0014.315.362/62100.0%
17@HOU41241831.0000000.0018.422.449/6279.0%
Per game3.2565.690.505.2520.210.193.750.06020.0010.3213.5743.44/63.5668.95%
Totals52105188420.213601020.00165.1217.1695/101768.95%
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