David Montgomery

In his first season with the Lions, David Montgomery smashed his RB28 ADP by finishing as the fantasy RB14. Moreover, he missed a few games, so his per-game ranking (RB8) was even better. His ADP is RB19, so drafters obviously believe that Jahmyr Gibbs (who is going off the board as the RB5) is going to have a larger share of the backfield touches this season. A few splits to note: The duo played 15 games together, including the postseason. Montgomery averaged 16.8 touches and 14.2 (half-PPR) fantasy points while Gibbs averaged 13.7 touches and 13.7 fantasy points, so Montgomery outscored Gibbs in the 15 games they played together. In the last 12 games they played together, Gibbs turned 14.2 touches into 15.3 fantasy points, while Montgomery posted 15.0 touches and 12.7 fantasy points. So down the stretch, they were basically splitting the work and Gibbs was more productive on a per-touch basis. The 12.7 fantasy points per game that Montgomery averaged in their last 12 games together would have been the 18th-highest average at the position last season, so Montgomery’s RB19 ADP makes sense if we assume that those last 12 games are more predictive than the full 15-game sample. To sum up, Montgomery should have a 15-touch role and offer solid fantasy RB2 numbers. He would have midrange to high-end RB1 upside if Gibbs were to miss time.