David Montgomery

Montgomery should step into the most prominent role since his days in Chicago, with Houston carrying 133 vacated carries into 2026 following the departures of Nick Chubb (and Joe Mixon). The Texans also invested heavily in their offensive line, ranking 2nd in net offensive line spending (+$20.5M, four net players added) and drafting first-round guard Keylan Rutledge, which should mean better run blocking up front. Montgomery’s efficiency profile warrants some caution. His run grade (43rd percentile), success rate (29th percentile), and broken-tackle rate (6th percentile) are all below average–at this point, he's not a back who creates many yards on his own. His strength is converting after contact (71st-percentile YAC/Att), and his route grade (86th percentile) makes him a functional-to-good receiver, though Woody Marks figures to eat into change-of-pace and third-down work, which caps Montgomery’s PPR ceiling. The larger concern is the age-29 season. Per our Production Curves research, running backs at 29 typically produce at roughly 83% of their baseline–a meaningful step back for a back whose 2025 was already a step back from 2023-2024. The opportunity is real, but the combination of declining efficiency metrics and a predictable age curve makes him more of a volume-dependent RB3 than a reliable RB2, though the latter is in play if things come together.