• Tua Tagovailoa

  • QB
  • , Miami Dolphins
  • 23
  • 218 lbs
  • 6' 1"
PtsPaYdsPaTDIntRuYds
1351814115109
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Draft note
by John Paulsen
In the six games where Tagovailoa played at least 50 snaps–which excludes his first start (Week 8) along with partial games in Week 11 (thumb injury) and Week 16 (benched)–he averaged 256 yards and 1.3 touchdowns through the air, while adding 16 yards and 0.5 touchdowns as a runner. The resulting 18.9 fantasy points per game are more than what Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees and Joe Burrow averaged last season. The split indicates that Tagovailoa can produce when things are going well, and he’s poised for a jump heading into his sophomore season. The Dolphins added a lot of speed in the form of Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle, who join DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki to form a dangerous receiving corps. Since the 2001 season, 36 rookie quarterbacks started at least 12 games. Interestingly, each quarterback in this sample either scored 16.9 fantasy points or more (the “good” rookies), or they averaged 13.8 fantasy points or less (the “bad” rookies). Of the quarterbacks in the “bad” group who went on to start 12+ games as sophomores–and Tagovailoa definitely falls into this group–they saw an average increase of 25.3% in points per game in Year Two.

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Scouting report

by Jordan Heck

MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa - 2021 Fantasy Football Outlook

Fantasy Upside
Tua Tagovailoa showed some promise in his rookie season as three of his nine starts saw him finish with 361 yards, 316 yards and 296 yards. He had at least two touchdowns in four of his starts, finishing with a 14-6 TD: turnover ratio. The Dolphins also have a revamped offense that includes offseason acquisitions Will Fuller and rookie Jaylen Waddle. They join an already talented receiving corps that includes DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, Lynn Bowden and Mike Gesicki.

Fantasy Downside
Tagovailoa showed promise as a rookie, but he also had times where he struggled. In three of his starts, he finished below 100 passing yards and in six of his starts, he had one passing touchdown or less. As a result, he only scored more than 18 fantasy points twice. Tagovailoa has a history of injury concerns dating back to his serious injury at Alabama, and even last season when he missed a game due to a thumb injury.

2021 Bottom Line
Tagovailoa carries some risk for 2021, but there are plenty of reasons to like him this season. He dealt with a lot as a rookie including his recovery from a major injury, shortened OTAs, lack of receiver depth and Ryan Fitzpatrick lurking in the background. This year Fitzpatrick is gone, the receiving corps has improved and Tagovailoa has had another year to get better. We like him as a top 15 quarterback this year.

2021 Strength of Schedule - MIA

W1W2W3W4W5W6W7W8W9W10W11W12W13W14W15W16W17
2
@NE
17
BUF
20
@LV
8
IND
16
@TB
28
@JAX
31
ATL
17
@BUF
24
HOU
14
BAL
27
@NYJ
15
CAR
9
NYG
BYE27
NYJ
5
@NO
30
@TEN

Schedule difficulty based on schedule-adjusted, positional defensive ranking. Top DEF = 1, bottom DEF = 32.

Game Stats

WkOppCompAttPaYdsPaTDIntYPAYPRRuAttYdsTDFumYPCPtsSnaps%
1@NE000000.000.0000000.000.00/620.0%
2BUF000000.000.0000000.000.00/750.0%
3@JAX000000.000.0000000.000.00/610.0%
4SEA000000.000.0000000.000.00/710.0%
5@SF000000.000.0000000.000.00/670.0%
6NYJ229004.504.5000000.000.45/568.9%
7BYE---------------
8LAR122293104.237.7520010.005.749/49100.0%
9@ARI2028248208.8612.40735005.0021.461/61100.0%
10LAC1525169206.7611.276-100-0.1714.758/58100.0%
11@DEN112083104.157.5500000.007.344/6567.7%
12@NYJ---------------
13CIN2639296107.5911.3833001.0016.170/70100.0%
14KC2848316216.5811.29624104.0027.083/83100.0%
15NE2026145015.587.2539203.0018.773/73100.0%
16@LV172294104.275.53311003.678.946/6373.0%
17@BUF3558361136.2210.31628004.6715.283/83100.0%
Per game18.6029.00181.401.100.506.269.753.6010.900.300.103.0313.5557.20/66.1084.96%
Totals18629018141156.269.7536109313.03135.46572/99784.96%
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