Fantasy Upside
J.K. Dobbins was productive as a rookie, playing infinitely better than Mark Ingram, and effectively pushing him out of town with a 6.0 yards-per-attempt average on 134 rushes. He also scored nine touchdowns, quite a feat when featured in the same offense as Lamar Jackson. Dobbins’ role increased over the course of the season, as he had double-digit carries in eight of his final nine active games. If that workload continues, he’ll be a lock for RB2 production, especially if he continues to score at a similar clip. Seven of his nine touchdowns were in his final six games.
Fantasy Downside
Those touchdowns seem bound for regression, and Lamar Jackson is going to continue to get red zone work on the ground as well. Plus, Dobbins will still split carries with Gus Edwards, even if the sophomore is likely to get the bulk of the touches. The biggest downside with Dobbins is his lack of impact in the passing game. Even for a team that throws as little as the Ravens do, Dobbins’ 24 targets last season – just two in his final five games – is heavily concerning. If that trend continues, it severely limits his upside outside of standard league formats.
2021 Bottom Line
Dobbins in the middle of the third round at ADP is assuming he gets the bulk of the touches in Baltimore, but it might be a bit too rich when you consider the touchdowns he’s likely to lose and his curiously absent impact in the passing game as a rookie. Gus Edwards will continue to steal touches as well. Dobbins should be considered a solid RB2 option for fantasy rosters, which is right where we have him ranked. If his ADP drops a round or two, he becomes more interesting as a safe RB2 target, but in the third round, there should be better options available.
Update:
Dobbins tore his ACL and will miss the season. Bump up Gus Edwards across all rankings into RB2 territory.
