A.J. Dillon

2022 Fantasy Upside
After a slow start to his rookie campaign where he took a secondary role to Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon was thrust into the fantasy spotlight after Jones suffered a knee injury in Week 10. Dillon served as the lead back when Jones missed Week 11 and recorded 17 touches for 97 total yards. From that point on, Dillon served as more of a "1B" compliment to Jones rather than a pure backup. He logged 111 carries (vs. only 55 for Jones) and 21 targets (vs. 42 for Jones) over the final eight games of the season to go along with six total touchdowns (vs. three for Jones) during that span. While Jones maintained the majority of passing game work, Dillon remained the lead runner and goal-line back even after Jones returned from injury. Whether that arrangement continues in 2022 will be one of the more interesting fantasy storylines in Green Bay this season. If it does, Dillon will have standalone value as a RB3 given his touchdown upside. Furthermore, if Jones were to miss more time due to injury, Dillon would likely become a RB1 as a workhorse back with Aaron Rodgers under center.

2022 Fantasy Downside
As long as Jones is healthy, Dillon will be locked in a timeshare where he will likely receive half of Green Bay's RB touches in the absolute best-case scenario. This issue is made worse by the fact that Jones will likely dominate the receiving work despite Dillon showing himself to be a capable pass catcher last year. Green Bay presents a situation where the overall RB workload is being split multiple ways, and the "high-value" RB touches (receptions and goal-line carries) are not consolidated to one back. Dillon's abilities at the goal line should give him substantial touchdown upside, but Jones' presence will render him somewhat game script dependent if he is limited primarily to rushing duties between the tackles. In a year when Green Bay has lost multiple weapons and could take a step back offensively, Dillon is not without risk given his middle-round ADP.

2022 Bottom Line
Dillon has significant upside due to his status as a young, ascending player who has shown the ability to produce in NFL games, his demonstrated abilities at the goal line, and the fact that he plays with Aaron Rodgers. However, his strong performance last season has resulted in him being drafted near other backs with a lead role on their offenses, while Dillon will necessarily compete with Jones for touches. Dillon is an exciting but inherently risky fantasy pick in the sixth round.