Dak Prescott

Fantasy Upside

Fewer quarterbacks entered the 2020 NFL season with as much hype as Dak Prescott. He was the QB2 through four-plus games before being lost for the season due to a right ankle compound fracture and dislocation. Prescott is on track to return healthy and to an offense with three excellent receivers, two trusted running backs, a healthy Blake Jarwin, and a healthier offensive line. The 28-year old averaged 30.6 fantasy points per game Weeks 1-4 and collected 12.4 points Week 5 before being injured. One of the top correlations for quarterbacks is passing yards and Prescott has seen his per-game average increase in each of the past three seasons. What is also impressive (and probably not replicable) is adding 60-plus passing yards per game to his average over that time. He has also been consistent in completing passes, topping 65% in four of five seasons. Dak’s offensive production is also boosted by an improved but poor defense; the Cowboys ranked 29th in 4for4’s Half-PPR Schedule Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA).

Fantasy Downside

The Cowboys have the fifth-most difficult QB Strength of Schedule using aFPA. That includes one of the worst fantasy playoff schedules and zero ‘Good’ matchups, the fewest of any team. There is also the Mike McCarthy factor, a known West Coast offense disciple. Short, quick passes can dominate but in this case, is mitigated some by the talented receiving corps. A bounce-back campaign from Ezekiel Elliott could also take away from Prescott’s passing workload as a way to keep the Dallas defense off the field. The most important thing to keep an eye on is Dak’s right ankle. He is not a top running quarterback (19 yards per game over his career) but his mobility opens his passing options and has given him value in the red zone. Prescott was on his way to setting a new career-high in rushing touchdowns prior to his injury. Losing the benefit of his legs even some takes away part of Dak’s fantasy ceiling.

2021 Bottom Line

Dak Prescott projects as a high-to-mid level QB1 in all formats due to him being in the peak age range, elite passing offense weapons, a top-end running back, and a healthier offensive line. There is always a chance regression hits especially after his red-hot start to 2020, but his aforementioned passing targets and suspect Cowboys defense offers a safe floor with high-end spike weeks.