In 2024, Jackson was historically dominant—the overall QB1 at 25.5 points per game with 13 of 16 games over 20 points and zero games below 10. Then 2025 happened. Jackson missed five games, finished QB20 overall, and cratered in the second half of the season, averaging just 9.8 points per game after the midway point compared to 22.6 before it. The rushing, typically his fantasy floor, fell to 27.6 yards per start with just two rushing touchdowns—a fraction of his usual production. His efficiency slipped to the 60th percentile in EPA per dropback, still respectable but a far cry from the MVP-caliber play of the prior season. The offseason brings change. Isaiah Likely is gone, and while Mark Andrews is back, the Ravens are banking on rookie tight ends Ja'Kobi Lane and Elijah Sarratt to fill the void alongside him. New offensive coordinator Declan Doyle takes over play-calling duties. Zay Flowers remains a legitimate number-one receiver, but the overall supporting cast feels thinner than it was a year ago and he has missed 18% of his games in the last five seasons. Jackson is going as the QB2 with an overall ADP in the middle of the fifth round. The talent is undeniable—when healthy, Jackson has as high a ceiling as anyone in fantasy. But the second-half collapse, the reduced rushing, and a transitional roster make QB2 a price that carries more risk than it has in years.

Allen is the safest pick at the quarterback position, and it's not particularly close. He's finished QB1 and QB2 the last two seasons while playing all 34 games, and his consistency is remarkable—he's scored 20-plus fantasy points in 59% of games over that stretch with only four games below 10. His 2025 efficiency was elite: 93rd percentile in EPA per dropback and 87th percentile in CPOE, and the rushing remains the league's best fantasy cheat code at the position. Allen averaged 37.4 rushing yards per start with 14 rushing touchdowns last season. That's a RB2 season's worth of rushing touchdowns on top of 25 passing touchdowns, and it’s his third consecutive season with at least 12 rushing touchdowns. The Bills added D.J. Moore to a receiving corps that already includes Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid, giving Allen arguably his deepest set of pass-catchers since Stefon Diggs was in Buffalo. He's going as the QB1 off the board with an overall ADP around pick 30, and that's the right price. The only question is whether you want to spend that draft capital on a quarterback when you could wait and get a value QB significantly later. But if you want the highest floor and the highest ceiling at the position, Allen is the pick. If the draft gets weird and the available options in the third round aren’t too appealing, then Allen is an extremely safe pick.

Prescott had a strong bounce-back season in 2025, finishing QB5 at 19.6 points per game after an injury-shortened QB31 the year before. His efficiency was excellent—89th percentile in EPA per dropback and 76th percentile in CPOE—and he was remarkably steady, averaging 19.2 points per game in the first half and 20.0 in the second. Nine of 16 games went over 20 points, and he only dipped below 10 twice. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens give him two legitimate weapons on the outside, Jake Ferguson is a reliable tight end, and Brian Schottenheimer runs a pass-heavy offense that keeps Prescott in high-volume situations all season. The only structural concern is the lack of rushing—11.1 yards per start and two touchdowns last year—which makes him entirely dependent on passing volume and touchdown rate, both of which can fluctuate. He's going as a midrange QB1 for a player who finished QB5 last year and QB4 in 2023. The Cowboys are going to throw the football, and when they do, he's likely to be efficient.

In each of the past two seasons, Mahomes has finished QB10 in total points, but he was the QB4 on a per-game basis last year after missing a couple of games. His CPOE (47th percentile) suggests the pinpoint accuracy isn't always there, but his EPA per dropback (84th percentile) and overall play-making ability keep him firmly in the QB1 conversation. The separator last year was his rushing. He has always been a threat to run–he has six straight seasons with 307+ yards as a runner–but as a 30-year-old, Mahomes set career-highs in rushing yards (422), and touchdowns (5). Rashee Rice is an alpha, and Xavier Worthy is fully healthy after a shaky 2025, health-wise. The Chiefs signed Kenneth Walker to replace Isiah Pacheco in the backfield. Mahomes is going off the board as a low-end QB1 and while his days of being a consensus top-three pick appear to be over, getting a quarterback with midrange QB1 upside outside the top 10 at the position is good value.

Darnold's fantasy career has been a wild ride. He finished QB8 in 2024 with Minnesota—one of the bigger surprises of the fantasy season—and promptly followed it with a QB14 overall finish in Seattle that translates to just QB25 on a per-game basis. The regression was steep: he averaged 17.2 points per game in the first half of 2025 before cratering to 11.2 after the midpoint, finishing with six games below 10 points. The interceptions were a real problem—14 on the season—which undercut what was otherwise genuinely accurate play (93rd percentile in CPOE) and solid efficiency (80th percentile in EPA per dropback). He also brings almost nothing on the ground, averaging 6.4 rushing yards per start with zero rushing touchdowns. The roster in Seattle has turned over at running back—Kenneth Walker is gone, replaced by rookie Jadarian Price—but the passing game has some upside. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a legitimate number-one, and Rashid Shaheed should make more of an impact in his second year in the offense. Cooper Kupp adds a reliable veteran presence. Whether this group is enough to keep Darnold out of double-digit-interception territory again is the real question. Darnold is going as a low-end QB2, and that's about right. He's a frustrating player to roster—flashes of genuine quality surrounded by stretches of turnover-prone football that will lose you weeks.

Mayfield's 2025 was a rude correction after a career year in 2024. He went from a QB5 finish at 21.5 points per game to QB12 overall but just QB18 on a per-game basis at 16.2 points per game—a drop of over five points per game. The efficiency numbers reflected the decline: 56th percentile in EPA per dropback and 27th percentile in CPOE, a far cry from the guy who threw for 41 touchdowns and carried fantasy rosters two seasons ago. He faded as the year wore on, averaging 17.6 points in the first half and 14.8 in the second, with a pair of sub-5-point clunkers mixed in along the way. Now he loses Mike Evans, his most reliable weapon over the past two seasons, and that's a real concern. The hope is that Chris Godwin's return to full health, Jalen McMillan coming back from his own injury, and Emeka Egbuka can collectively absorb Evans' vacated targets and red-zone presence. That's a lot of "ifs" for a quarterback whose accuracy was already slipping. Cade Otton provides a steady check-down option at tight end, and Mayfield's legs (23.0 rush yards per start) offer a modest floor. The upside is a top-10 finish if the receiving corps gels. The downside is a QB2 with limited ceiling if the Evans-sized hole doesn't get filled. At the cost of a low-end QB2, the risk-reward is palatable, but he's more of a QB2 with upside than a reliable starter.

Jones was one of the biggest surprises of the 2025 season. After a rough 2024 split between two stops, he landed in Indianapolis and proceeded to play some of the most efficient football of his career—87th percentile in EPA per dropback and 78th percentile in CPOE, both strong marks. He averaged 17.4 points per game in 13 appearances, with five of those finishing over 20 points and only one below 10. The first half of the year was particularly strong at 19.6 points per game. He was the fantasy QB7 through Week 13 (!!!), then tore his Achilles in Week 14, and that's where the 2026 story gets complicated. Jones should be ready for Week 1 according to the team's projections, but a torn Achilles at 28 typically brings reduced mobility that takes more than one offseason to fully recover from—and Jones' rushing contribution (12.8 yards per start, five rushing touchdowns) was part of what made him a viable streaming option last year. Losing Michael Pittman is significant, though the Colts re-signed Alec Pierce and have Josh Downs as a potential breakout in the slot. Tyler Warren enters his second NFL season with a full offseason of development. Jonathan Taylor in the backfield continues to take some of the pressure off the passing game. Jones is going as a low-end QB2, and the price is right for the production level he showed before the injury. The key questions—how cleanly does he recover, and does a compromised version of Jones still provide the rushing upside that drove his 2025 value—won't be answered until training camp. Draft him as a streaming QB2 with upside rather than a week-to-week starter.

The reunion with Mike McCarthy and the Pittsburgh supporting cast gives Rodgers his most familiar situation since Green Bay, but the efficiency metrics from his first two years back haven't justified much more than a streaming quarterback. He's finished QB16 and QB18 overall in back-to-back seasons at 14.5 and 13.9 points per game–QB23 and QB27 on a per-game basis–and his advanced metrics reflect exactly what those numbers suggest: 44th percentile in both EPA per dropback and CPOE, dead average efficiency from a player who was once elite. Pittsburgh has 102 vacated WR targets (44.3% of WR volume), and pairing DK Metcalf with Michael Pittman and rookie Germie Bernard gives Rodgers a decent set of options to throw to. McCarthy's system historically generates passing volume, and if the Steelers' offense leans into Rodgers' arm more than the previous regime, there's a path to high-end QB2 production, though I’m not holding my breath.

Love's 2025 season was a tale of two stories. On the surface, he finished QB13 with a QB21 per-game average—solid, but not great. But Love left three games early due to injury (Weeks 11, 12, and 16), and when those are removed, his per-game average jumps to 17.2 points, or about QB14 on a per-game basis. More importantly, his efficiency metrics were outstanding: 98th percentile in EPA per dropback and 96th percentile in CPOE, both top marks in the league. The talent and the efficiency are clearly there—the question is whether the Packers will let Love cook, since it’s his passing volume that’s holding him back, not his arm. A healthy Christian Watson and Jayden Reed, the emerging Matthew Golden and Savion Williams, and an elite Tucker Kraft returning from an ACL tear give Love plenty of weapons. If Green Bay increases the pass rate even slightly and Love stays healthy, the gap between his efficiency and his fantasy output should close in a hurry.

Hurts has been one of the most bankable fantasy quarterbacks in football, finishing QB6 and QB7 the last two seasons while playing nearly every game. His per-game average dipped from 21.0 to 18.7 points last year, but the rushing production continued to anchor his floor—27.2 yards per start with eight rushing touchdowns, giving him RB-caliber value on the ground alone. His accuracy was strong (82nd percentile in CPOE) and the efficiency was solid (67th percentile in EPA per dropback), though the second half of last season was uneven, as he averaged 21.7 points in the first eight games and 15.7 the rest of the way. The big question heading into 2026 is the receiving corps. If A.J. Brown is traded as expected, Hurts loses his most dangerous downfield weapon. However, the Eagles moved up in the first round to nab Makai Lemon and added Dontayvion Wicks and Hollywood Brown. DeVonta Smith is more than capable of stepping into the WR1 role and Dallas Goedert provides a reliable safety valve. Saquon Barkley's presence in the backfield also takes pressure off the passing game entirely. Despite the imminent loss of Brown, Hurts once again looks like a rock-solid QB1.

Purdy is one of my favorite values at the position. He was the QB24 last season, but he only played eight games—and in those eight games, he was the overall QB2 on a per-game basis at 21.5 points per game. He closed the season on a tear, posting 26.2, 30.9, and 36.9 fantasy points in his final three games. His efficiency metrics were elite: 96th percentile in EPA per dropback and 98th percentile in CPOE among 45 qualified passers. The 49ers lost Jauan Jennings but added Mike Evans and Christian Kirk, and Ricky Pearsall is back for a full season. George Kittle is recovering from a torn Achilles and the hope is that he'll be ready for Week 1. Christian McCaffrey rounds out a receiving corps that should give Purdy plenty to work with. He’s going off the board as a high-end QB2, and that's a steal for a quarterback who has finished QB6 and QB9 on a per-game basis in his last two healthy seasons and was the QB2 per game last year. Durability is the only real concern, but as a ninth-round pick, it’s easy to back him up with another quality passer in the next few rounds and run with a committee.

Shough was one of the more pleasant surprises from the 2025 draft class. After a couple of early cameo appearances, he took over as the Saints' starter and held the job the rest of the way, starting nine games from Week 9 through Week 18 and averaging 17.1 points per game in that stretch—good for the QB9 overall and QB12 on a per-game basis. That's starter-quality production from a rookie quarterback who most people didn't have pegged as a 2025 contributor. His accuracy was encouraging—64th percentile in CPOE—though the overall EPA per dropback (33rd percentile) lagged behind, likely a function of the Saints' limited receiving corps rather than Shough himself, but it’s something to monitor. He also showed enough as a runner to matter in fantasy, averaging 21.9 rushing yards per start with three rushing touchdowns in nine starts. The Saints addressed the biggest hole in the offense by adding Jordyn Tyson to pair with Chris Olave, giving Shough two legitimate perimeter weapons for the first time. Juwan Johnson returns at tight end. It's Year 2 with Kellen Moore calling the plays, and that continuity matters for a young quarterback still learning the nuances of an NFL offense. He's going off the board as a mid- to low-QB2, and while there's real risk that his rookie-year production was the ceiling rather than the floor, the arrow is pointing up. If Tyson and Olave can stay healthy and give Shough consistent targets on the outside, he has the accuracy and the rushing ability to push into low-end QB1 territory. He's a fine QB2 with sneaky upside at his current price.

Brissett was one of the better stories in fantasy football last season once he found his footing. From Week 6 through the end of the year, he averaged 18.9 points per game over 12 starts, which would have ranked among the top eight quarterbacks in fantasy over that stretch. The accuracy was solid at 67th percentile in CPOE, and while the EPA per dropback (36th percentile) suggests room for improvement in overall efficiency, the results spoke for themselves. He's working with a genuinely good supporting cast. Trey McBride is one of the best weapons at tight end in the entire league, Michael Wilson broke out last season and gives him a legitimate No. 2 option, Jeremiyah Love is a dynamic young running back who will keep defenses honest, and Marvin Harrison Jr. remains a player with unrealized upside who could finally put it together. Kendrick Bourne adds a reliable depth option. Brissett is going as a low-end QB2 to not drafted, and the late-season version of him is significantly better than that price. He won't win you a league, but if the Cardinals continue developing their weapons around him, he's a legitimate streaming option with some weeks where he can post QB1 numbers, and is a sneaky third option in two-quarterback formats.

Williams took a meaningful step forward in Year 2, improving from a solid QB14 rookie finish to the overall QB6 at 18.8 points per game, a 3.6-point-per-game increase. He showed the ability to spike with a 37.7-point explosion, and demonstrated that Ben Johnson's system fits his skillset. The rushing contribution (23.2 yards per start, three touchdowns) gives him a nice floor that his rookie season didn't always provide. The advanced stat concerns are real, though. His CPOE sat at the 16th percentile. He can make plays, but he remains an inconsistent thrower, and losing D.J. Moore, his veteran security blanket, matters. Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland, and second-year Luther Burden III all have upside, however. Year 2 in Johnson's system should help, and the ceiling is firmly top-five if the accuracy improves and the receiver group gels. He's going as a midrange QB1, which means you're paying for the upside while accepting the inconsistency. If the CPOE improves to match his EPA (62nd percentile), he's a borderline value. If it doesn't, he may be hard-pressed to match his ADP.

Sanders' debut was uneven. He appeared in seven games starting from Week 11, finishing QB36 overall at 11.4 points per game–a number heavily inflated by a 33.5-point explosion in Week 14. Strip that out and he averaged 7.7 points in his other six appearances. His efficiency metrics were concerning in limited action: a -0.227 EPA per dropback and a negative CPOE in just 212 attempts, both well below the qualified threshold to draw firm conclusions but alarming nonetheless. He's competing again with Deshaun Watson and Dillon Gabriel entering Year 2, though Sanders reportedly has the inside track on the starting job. The situation is modestly better than it was a season ago. Cleveland's WR room welcomes talented rookies KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston alongside an established Jerry Jeudy, and Harold Fannin Jr. should be able to handle any leftovers from David Njoku’s departure. Sanders is not a rushing threat by profile, which keeps the floor low relative to other young QBs. In 2QB or superflex leagues, a second-year quarterback with starting aspirations and a receiving corps that's genuinely better than it was is worth a late-round flier.

Mendoza is the clear QB1 in this class after leading Indiana to a national title and a Heisman. Advanced stats-wise, his college profile is rare: a 98th-percentile PFF Pass Grade (90.7), 94th-percentile Adjusted Completion % (79.0), and 98th-percentile yards per attempt (9.3). He wasn't manufacturing that efficiency underneath either—his aDOT sat at 9.8 yards. Forty-one touchdowns against six picks across 16 games. My Rookie QB model predicts around 17 yards rushing per game, which is not nothing, and the landing spot has pieces. Brock Bowers is a top-three fantasy tight end, Ashton Jeanty should take a leap in Year 2 under Klint Kubiak's run-heavy scheme, and the Tyler Linderbaum signing shores up the interior line. The receiver room is the problem—Tre Tucker, Jack Bech, and Dont’e Thornton are underwhelming, and Kubiak's play-action-heavy system could cap passing volume. Kirk Cousins adds a short-term murky timeline, though most first-overall QBs are starting within weeks. QB3 in redraft with a ceiling tied to the weapons around him; priority dynasty target at a discounted price.

Taylor finished as the RB2 in half-PPR formats in 2025, trailing only Christian McCaffrey. After an injury-shortened 2024 that dropped him to RB14 in 13 games, he returned with a full workload and validated his standing as a top-tier bell cow. The efficiency leans heavily on what he does after contact–his YAC/Att ranked at the 88th percentile among qualified backs. His 82nd-percentile PFF run grade confirms he's operating at an above-average level as a runner even when the blocking isn't generating much pre-contact space (57th-percentile YBC/Att). The receiving role is solid but not spectacular–54 targets, 46 catches, 378 yards–enough to support his half-PPR ceiling without driving it. A locked-in workhorse with elite after-contact traits. Draft him as a high-floor RB1.

Jones dropped from RB15 in 2024 to RB43 in 2025, missing five games with injury and posting efficiency numbers that suggest the decline is real and not just about availability. He ranked dead last among qualified backs in elusive rating–65th out of 65 qualified backs–and his run grade came in at the 18th percentile, his broken-tackle rate at the 20th. At 31 years old, those aren't numbers that are likely to bounce back. The receiving role was present in volume but the route grade ranked at the 10th percentile. Given his struggles running the ball, there's not much here for fantasy purposes unless injuries open the door, and even then the underlying metrics aren’t encouraging.

McCaffrey finished as the RB1 in half-PPR formats in 2025, but the caveat is significant–he appeared in just four games in 2024. When healthy, his production is driven almost entirely by the passing game. He led all running backs in targets (121) and route grade (99th percentile among qualified RBs), while ranking 3rd in YPRR (96th percentile)–a profile that sets him apart from traditional workhorses. The rushing efficiency tells a different story: his run grade (14th percentile) and YAC/Att (9th percentile) are well below average, suggesting he's no longer the same threat between the tackles. However, given his receiving, the upside is the weekly RB1 ceiling when healthy.

Barkley went from the overall RB1 in 2024 to RB13 in 2025, and the efficiency numbers suggest the regression may be real. His run grade fell to the 60th percentile, his elusive rating to the 48th, and his YAC/Att to the 14th. Not great. The receiving role was voluminous (86th-percentile target share) but not efficient; his route grade ranked at the 14th percentile and his YPRR (0.84) was below average. Philadelphia added tackle Markel Bell in the third round, but he’s known more as a pass-blocker than a mauler in the run game. Barkley is 29, entrenched as the starter, and volume and touchdown opportunities should be fine. Which was the outlier–2024 or 2025? The data leans toward the former.

Jacobs dropped from RB5 in 2024 to RB12 in 2025, though he was the RB9 on a per-game basis and his 2025 season still had its moments–13 rushing touchdowns kept him relevant even as his per-game average dipped from 16.5 to 14.6 points per game. The efficiency picture is uneven. His PFF run grade ranked at the 77th percentile and his broken-tackle rate at the 62nd, but his YBC/Att came in at the 26th percentile, reflecting an offensive line that wasn't generating much room before contact. His success rate (40th percentile) confirms the ground game was a bit of a grind. The receiving profile is the most underrated part of his game–his route grade ranked at the 95th percentile, and his YPRR at the 75th, making him a quality pass-catcher despite the modest target volume. The blocking environment seems to be trending the wrong way. The Packers ranked 31st in net OL spending this offseason, lost two net linemen (Elgton Jenkins and Rasheed Walker), and made no offensive line investments in the first three rounds of the draft, though they did draft a center (Jager Burton) in the fifth round. The run blocking was already a liability in 2025, and there's no obvious reason to expect improvement this season. The more pressing issue is off the field. Jacobs was arrested on May 23rd following a domestic disturbance complaint and booked on five charges: battery, criminal damage to property, disorderly conduct, strangulation and suffocation, and intimidation of a victim. His attorneys state he is denying the charges. The Brown County District Attorney's Office subsequently indicated it is not yet prepared to formally charge him, noting that while probable cause supported the arrest, the evidence did not meet the DA's higher standard for prosecution. The case remains open and charges could still be filed. An NFL suspension is possible this season or next, and the range of outcomes–no suspension, a multi-game suspension, or something longer–is wide enough to make him impossible to draft with confidence. Until there is more clarity on the legal and disciplinary front, he's a player to monitor rather than actively target.

Henderson's 2025 splits tell two very different stories. In Rhamondre Stevenson's 13 healthy games, he averaged 10.5 touches, 56 yards, and 0.38 touchdowns–low-end RB3 production. In the games where Stevenson was out or limited, Henderson averaged 19.6 touches, 103 yards, and 1.25 touchdowns, which is strong RB1 territory. He’s being drafted as a low-end RB2, and that perceived value hinges on Stevenson’s fragility or the potential of Henderson usurping Stevenson’s role. Henderson’s 94th-percentile YBC/Att suggests he's quick to find the ample running lanes opened by New England’s excellent offensive line, and his overall profile–55th-percentile run grade, 65th-percentile elusive rating, 58th-percentile success rate–is consistently above average without a standout metric. New England again invested in the offensive line this offseason and added first-round tackle Caleb Lomu, so the line should continue to be a strength. Given Stevenson's injury history–he's missed 10 games in the last three seasons–Henderson carries real upside. The downside is that Henderson could continue to see 10 touches per game as part of a committee.

Hampton's rookie season was cut short at nine games, leaving a limited but promising sample. He finished RB32 overall at 13.3 points per game (RB16 per-game production), and the efficiency profile holds up well under the circumstances–his run grade ranked at the 86th percentile and his broken-tackle rate at the 94th, fourth-highest among qualified backs. His YAC/Att (22nd percentile) is the one concern, though 124 rookie carries is a small sample. The receiving role was functional without being a focal point, and his 71st-percentile route grade suggests the foundation is there. The bigger news for 2026 is Joe Alt's return. Alt missed virtually all of last season with injury, and getting an elite tackle back into the lineup should meaningfully improve Hampton's blocking environment. Keaton Mitchell adds depth but isn't a threat to the workload. Hampton enters the season as the clear starter with an offense and line that should be better than what he had last year.

Mason's advanced stats don’t match his fantasy results. In 2025 he posted a 78th-percentile run grade, 83rd-percentile success rate, and 86th-percentile YAC/Att–legitimate numbers for a quality early-down back. The problem is everything around it. His receiving profile is essentially nonexistent, with a 3rd-percentile YPRR and 6th-percentile route grade, which limits his role in any modern offense, especially with Aaron Jones still in the mix. Sharing a backfield with Jones in Minnesota meant the volume was split further; neither back has a clear path to a workhorse workload. Mason is a good runner stuck in a timeshare because he’s not an adept receiver. He's worth monitoring pending Jones’s durability.

Gainwell's RB21 finish in 2025 at Pittsburgh was a surprise, but the receiving volume that drove it was real–81 targets, 73 catches, 486 yards, and three scores, with a 92nd-percentile target share, 86th-percentile YPRR, and 81st-percentile route grade. He's primarily a pass-catching back, and that profile fits the Rachaad White role he's stepping into in Tampa. The rushing efficiency has some interesting markers too: his broken-tackle rate ranked at the 95th percentile (3rd in the NFL) on 114 carries, though his run grade (51st percentile) and elusive rating (54th percentile) were average. At 4.7 YPC, he’s not just a pass-catcher. However, the situation at Tampa is complicated. Irving is the likely lead back when healthy but he’s recovering from shoulder surgery. Sean Tucker handles goal-line work. Gainwell fits as the committee's passing-down piece, but in a three-way split where none of the backs has a clean role, consistent production is hard to project. Tampa has 132 vacated carries entering 2026, so there's volume available–it's just spread across enough bodies to limit any one back's ceiling, and Gainwell is unlikely to see 80+ targets again.

Harvey's rookie season finished RB19 overall, but that number shortens a longer story that's really about two different backs. In his six featured games without Dobbins, he averaged 15.9 touches, 68 yards, and 0.84 touchdowns–12.8 fantasy points per game, which is a solid mid-range RB2 line. The 3.2 YPC in that stretch is the problem; he was generating through volume and scoring rate (12 total touchdowns) rather than efficiency, and the advanced metrics back that up. His run grade (15th percentile), success rate (12th percentile), YBC/Att (25th percentile), and YAC/Att (32nd percentile) are all well below average. The rushing profile was genuinely poor for a back expected to carry a featured workload with Dobbins out. His receiving ability is the appeal, and he has the potential to turn into Sean Payton’s next great receiving back, a la Alvin Kamara. Harvey’s 90th-percentile target share, 81st-percentile YPRR, and 73rd-percentile route grade make him a legitimate pass-catching asset, and five receiving touchdowns in 2025 reflect real usage in scoring situations. Dobbins’ return is the tricky part. He has played 32 games total over the last four seasons, which is not a health record that inspires much confidence. Jonah Coleman was drafted in the fourth round as depth. If Dobbins misses time again–and history suggests he will–Harvey should once again find himself in a featured role, inefficiency and all.

Williams finished RB6 and RB8 in back-to-back seasons–the fantasy community continues to underestimate him, yet he continues to produce. Williams has quietly been one of the best fantasy backs in the league in the last three years, scoring 44 total touchdowns while averaging 1,455 yards per season and averaging 4.6 yards per carry. His 91st-percentile run grade is the standout number. The Rams' scheme does a lot of the work, though–his 86th-percentile YBC/Att reflects good blocking as much as good running, and his elusive rating (35th percentile) and YAC/Att (52nd percentile) aren't generating much when the holes aren’t there, but the holes are usually there in Sean McVay’s scheme. The receiving role (36 catches) is fine, but nothing special. I’m expecting midrange to low-end RB1 numbers once again, so his midrange RB2 ADP is quite appealing.

Hall has finished RB18 and RB17 in back-to-back seasons, making him one of the more consistent mid-range RB2-types in the league despite playing for a Jets offense that hasn't made things easy. His 83rd-percentile run grade is the strongest individual rushing metric, though his elusive rating (28th percentile) and broken-tackle rate (35th percentile) are below average, so he's not generating much when the holes aren’t there. Four rushing touchdowns in 2025 kept a ceiling on his overall production, and more red-zone opportunity could push him meaningfully up the rankings. The receiving game is a genuine asset–his route grade and YPRR both rank at the 82nd-83rd percentile range, giving him a reliable PPR floor, especially since the Jets figure to trail most of the season. Geno Smith theoretically offers an upgrade at quarterback.

Walker produced a 97th-percentile run grade in 2025, second-best among qualified backs, so the talent is real. The problem in Seattle was opportunity–221 carries, five touchdowns, while sharing the backfield with Zach Charbonnet. Kansas City represents a significant change in scenery: the Chiefs enter 2026 with 288 vacated RB carries, the most of any team in the NFL, clearing the runway for a genuine workhorse role. The concern is the blocking environment. KC's run-block win rate fell from 7th to 25th last season, and the team was a net loser in offensive line spending this offseason with no early-round picks. Creed Humphrey remains an elite center, but run blocking was a weakness last year and it really didn't get addressed. Walker's elite elusiveness (89th-percentile elusive rating, 88th-percentile broken-tackle rate) gives him a chance to generate on his own, which is probably why the Chiefs went after him. A high-upside RB2 some environment risk.

Rodriguez arrives in Jacksonville carrying some of the stronger efficiency numbers at the position. His YAC/Att ranked at the 97th percentile–second in the NFL–and his success rate (94th percentile) and broken-tackle rate (92nd percentile) round out an impressive profile. The caveat, as with several backs running behind poor offensive lines, is that his YBC/Att ranked at the 5th percentile in Washington, meaning very little of his production came before first contact. Jacksonville didn’t invest heavily in the offensive line this offseason, though the addition of guard Emmanuel Pregnon (99th-percentile run blocker) in the third round should create more holes. The Liam Coen connection is worth noting as context–Rodriguez ran for 1,379 yards and nine touchdowns under Coen at Kentucky in 2021. He had no meaningful receiving work in 2025, which limits his PPR upside in what figures to be a committee with Tuten. He's a legitimate late-round target with a higher floor than his RB37 draft position implies if the Jacksonville run game improves.

White fell from RB20 in 2024 to RB34 in 2025 as Bucky Irving's emergence in Tampa cut into his workload, but the efficiency profile he produced on limited carries was genuinely interesting. His run grade ranked at the 92nd percentile–5th in the NFL–and his YBC/Att at the 83rd. The catch is his YAC/Att ranked at the 8th percentile, meaning once contact arrives he doesn't do much with it. The receiving role was present in volume (75th-percentile target share) but below-average in efficiency (21st-percentile YPRR). He's joining Washington as the replacement for Chris Rodriguez. The Commanders also added Jerome Ford, Jeremy McNichols is still around, and they added Kaytron Allen in the draft.

Skattebo's rookie season was cut short by a dislocated ankle in Week 8, which is the only reason a back who averaged 19.5 touches, 97 rushing yards, and a touchdown per game from Weeks 2 through 7 isn't a consensus RB1 conversation. He's targeting a return during camp with the expectation of being ready for Week 1, and the Giants appear to share that confidence–they didn't add a running back in free agency or the draft, leaving Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary as the backups behind him. The efficiency data comes with a sample size caveat at 101 carries, but nothing in it raises flags, and it’s actually encouraging. His run grade (72nd percentile) and elusive rating (72nd percentile) are above average, and his broken-tackle rate sits at the 65th percentile. The more impressive numbers are in the receiving game, where his YPRR ranked at the 88th percentile and his route grade at the 90th. He's a legitimate three-down back, not just a runner. New York also used the 10th overall pick on guard Francis Mauigoa, a meaningful OL investment that should help Skattebo’s pre-contact numbers, which were below average in 2025 (35th-percentile YBC/Att).

Love is the best pure running back prospect since Saquon Barkley and the PFF data backs it up. He posted a 98th-percentile PFF Run Grade (93.7), a 93rd-percentile yards after contact per attempt (4.5), a 92nd-percentile PFF Elusive Rating (127.5), and a 95th-percentile yards per route run (1.83)—a four-stat profile that screams three-down workhorse. The receiving chops matter here; Marcus Freeman has said he thinks Love could play wide receiver at the next level. I heard comparisons to Christian McCaffrey before the pick was made. Arizona’s backfield was a complete wasteland last year—no back even hit 100 carries. Love walks into an immediate bell-cow role with minimal serious competition. The quarterback situation (Jacoby Brissett/Gardner Minshew/Carson Beck) limits this offense’s ceiling, but his volume floor should be rock-solid, and the Cardinals invested in the offensive line, adding guards Isaac Seumalo and Elijah Wilkinson in free agency and guard Chase Bisontis in the second round of the NFL Draft. I view Love as a high-end RB2 in early fantasy drafts.

Pierce's breakout in 2025 deserves more attention than it got–1,003 yards in 14 games, WR34. The profile is unusual. His ESPN OPEN score is the 4th percentile, meaning almost no one in the 110-receiver sample got open less consistently, yet his PFF route grade (87th percentile) and YPRR (88th percentile) are both very good. The explanation is the extreme vertical route tree: Pierce's 20.0 average depth of target was among the highest in the league. He runs go routes and deep posts, creates the separation on his terms, and his 84th-percentile drop rate says he catches what comes his way. He doesn't manufacture yards after the catch (57th percentile) or thrive in contested situations (41st percentile). The Colts have 108 vacated WR targets entering 2026 with Michael Pittman gone, giving Pierce a path to legit WR1 usage as the team's deep threat. Daniel Jones recovering from his Achilles tear is the schematic question–how much can a returning Jones push the ball downfield to support a 20.0 aDOT receiver. At WR34 ADP, managers are betting that Pierce can repeat his 2025 breakout.

Watson's efficiency numbers when healthy are among the most impressive at the position. In 10 games last season after returning from injury, he caught 35 of 55 targets for 611 yards and six touchdowns, with a PFF route grade (96th percentile) and YPRR (2.51, 96th percentile) that both ranked at the very top of the wide receiver sample. Over 10 games last year, his production extrapolated to a 1,039-yard, 10.2-touchdown pace for a full season. In his 23 career games where he's played at least 70 percent of the snaps, he has averaged 3.6 catches, 63 yards, and 0.70 touchdowns on 6.1 targets per game, or 12.2 fantasy points, solidly WR1-adjacent. The snap share is the key. Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks are both gone, and Watson should command 75 to 80 percent of the snaps as the clear WR1 in Green Bay entering 2026. Jordan Love's 100th-percentile CPOE means the ball will be placed accurately when Watson works downfield, and the Packers' receiving corps–Jayden Reed, Matthew Golden, Savion Williams, and Tucker Kraft returning from his ACL–gives Love enough weapons to keep defenses from doubling Watson. He's going as the WR29 and that's a significant discount for a player with top-15 upside if the snap share materializes as expected.

Brown's metrics are elite regardless of where he lands. His ESPN scores–93rd-percentile OPEN, 88th-percentile CATCH, 85th-percentile YAC, 95th-percentile OVERALL–and his 92nd-percentile PFF route grade and 87th-percentile drop rate paint the picture of a complete, physical WR1 at the top of his game. He's finished WR12 per game in back-to-back seasons (14.1 and 12.1 points per game), missing a handful of games each year but producing at a high level when available. The trade uncertainty is the variable. If he lands in New England with Drake Maye–who posted 100th-percentile efficiency last season–the upside is enormous: a proven WR1 paired with perhaps the most efficient young quarterback in the league. If he goes elsewhere or stays in Philadelphia, the evaluation changes significantly. He's going as the WR12, and that price is essentially a bet on the landing spot being favorable. If the Patriots get him, he may end up in the top 10.

Jefferson proved last year that he's not entirely quarterback-proof. After a WR2 finish at 16.2 points per game in 2024, he crashed to WR28 overall and WR38 per game with J.J. McCarthy at quarterback–grinding out 1,048 yards but scoring just two touchdowns in 17 games. The underlying metrics weren't the problem: his 85th-percentile route grade, 80th-percentile YPRR, and 84th-percentile YAC per reception all suggest the talent is intact, and his 69th-percentile ESPN OPEN score reflects a legitimate separator. The issue was a Minnesota offense that couldn't consistently put him in the end zone. Two touchdowns on 140 targets is brutal luck, bad scheme, or bad quarterback–probably a combination of all three. Kyler Murray is a meaningful step up. He's not elite–his 2025 EPA and CPOE were both in the middle of the pack–but he brings improvisation, mobility, and a demonstrated ability to find receivers on broken plays that McCarthy never could. Murray also arrives with a full cast: Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings as complementary weapons, T.J. Hockenson at tight end, Aaron Jones in the backfield. Jefferson is going as the WR6, and the bet is that moving from one of the worst quarterbacks in the league to a serviceable one is enough to restore the red zone production that turned 2025 into a disaster. With Jefferson's tools and Murray's resourcefulness, a top-ten finish is a reasonable base case and a top-5 finish is within reach.

Fantasy managers forget just how good Waddle was at his peak. He posted three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to open his career before Tyreek Hill's arrival permanently scrambled the Dolphins' target distribution. With Hill dominating the offense, Waddle became a secondary option in the worst possible way. He was still running the same routes, still winning, but not getting the ball as much as he deserved. His 2024 was miserable (WR49 overall, nine games under seven points) and his 2025 in Miami wasn't much better on a per-game basis (WR28 at 10.1 per game), but the 92nd-percentile PFF route grade and 89th-percentile YPRR–both among the best in the league–indicates that the talent hasn't eroded. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception has called Waddle "an obvious good receiver" and believes his "production could shoot through the roof" as the WR1 in Denver, and the case isn't hard to make. In 29 career games without Hill, Waddle has averaged 5.5 catches, 65 yards, and 0.38 touchdowns on 7.9 targets per game, or 11.8 fantasy points per game, numbers that sit firmly in WR1 territory. Denver gives him the best opportunity of his post-Hill career. He arrives as the clear WR1 in an offense that Bo Nix ran as the overall QB8 last season. Nix isn't elite–58th percentile in EPA per dropback, 36th percentile in CPOE–but he's functional, accurate enough to hit the short-to-intermediate routes that make Waddle dangerous. Courtland Sutton is over 30 and aging out of his prime. Troy Franklin is a legitimate second weapon but hasn't yet pushed into lead-dog territory. Evan Engram at tight end and a capable backfield of RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins round out an offense with enough complementary pieces to keep defenses from keying on Waddle. He turns 28 in November–still squarely in his prime–and the arrow is pointing up after three years of artificially suppressed production. He's going as the WR24, and for a player with a legitimate top-12 ceiling in his first season as an unambiguous WR1, that's a price worth paying.

Pickens' first season in Dallas was something of a revelation. After three years of inconsistent production in Pittsburgh–peaking at a WR20 finish in 2023–he stepped into a pass-heavy offense with a functional quarterback and immediately became one of the best wide receivers in fantasy football, finishing WR4 overall at 15.3 points per game. The numbers behind the finish are legitimately elite: 93 receptions, 1,429 yards, and nine touchdowns on 137 targets. His PFF metrics match the production: 95th-percentile route grade, 93rd-percentile YPRR (2.35), 78th-percentile contested catch rate, and a 92nd-percentile avoided tackle rate among qualified receivers. The natural question heading into 2026 is the CeeDee Lamb dynamic. It's worth addressing directly with the data. In the 12 games where both Pickens and Lamb were healthy last season, Pickens averaged 5.7 catches, 83 yards, and 0.33 touchdowns on 8.3 targets per game, or 13.3 fantasy points per game, which is WR1 production. Lamb's comparable line in those games was 6.2 catches, 89 yards, and 0.25 touchdowns on 9.7 targets, or 13.5 points per game. They were essentially co-WR1s in one of the highest-volume passing offenses in the league, separated by less than half a point per game. When Lamb missed time, Pickens typically went nuts, scoring 29.4, 27.3, 24.9, and 25.1 fantasy points in four of those weeks, so his ceiling is among the highest at the position. Dak Prescott's 89th-percentile EPA and 76th-percentile CPOE mean the Cowboys' passing attack is both high-volume and efficient, and with Brian Schottenheimer running the offense, that pass-heavy identity should remain intact. Pickens is going as the WR10 in the early second round, and for a player who finished WR4 last year in a co-starring role, that price looks quite fair.

Sutton has become one of the more reliable volume producers at the position–back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, back-to-back full 17-game campaigns, back-to-back finishes between WR9 and WR15. The consistency is real, even if the per-game averages (WR17 and WR28) reveal that he's compiling value through availability and touchdowns rather than dominance. His 84th-percentile ESPN CATCH score and the 69th-percentile contested catch rate speaks to his value as a ball-winner. The 29th-percentile YAC per reception and 35th-percentile ESPN YAC are consistent: Sutton is a boundary route-runner who wins at the point of the catch (13.3 aDOT, 13th-percentile slot rate) and doesn't create much after contact. He needs the volume and touchdowns to hold for the production to stay at WR2 levels. The complication for 2026 is Jaylen Waddle. Denver has zero vacated targets–the offense returns intact–which means Waddle's arrival compresses the existing target share rather than filling an existing hole. Sutton commanded 138 targets in 2025. How many of those shift to Waddle, who is a better route-runner, will determine whether Sutton finishes as a fantasy starter. Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims continue to develop secondary options and could push for larger roles as well. Sutton is turning 31 in October, which is not ancient but is the beginning of the zone where boundary receivers with limited YAC creation start to slow down. At WR39 with a late-round ADP, there's nothing wrong with the price for two straight 1,000-yard seasons, but 2026 will be a real test of that consistent production.

Lamb's 2025 was defined more by what didn't happen than what did. He finished WR18 overall and WR10 per game in 12 healthy games–the per-game production was solid, but three touchdowns in 14 appearances and a missed stretch of games suppressed the overall finish. The raw tools remain among the best at the position: a 94th-percentile ESPN OPEN score makes him one of the premier separators in the league, and his 94th-percentile YPRR confirms the efficiency when he does get the ball. The concern is that his ESPN CATCH score (39th percentile) and a 25th-percentile drop rate (9.6%) suggest he wasn't catching everything thrown his way last season–unusual for a player of his caliber and worth monitoring. Sharing the target tree with George Pickens also compressed his red zone usage; Pickens caught nine touchdowns to Lamb's three. Dak Prescott at 89th-percentile EPA keeps the volume high, and Lamb is going as the WR5. If the touchdowns normalize even partially–six or seven would be a reasonable expectation–he's a WR1a in a pass-heavy offense with one of the league's better quarterbacks.

Burden’s PFF YPRR was 98th percentile (2.69) and his YAC per reception was 97th percentile (7.3)–elite numbers that put him among the best receivers in the league on a per-route basis. He did it from the slot (73rd percentile slot rate) running short routes (7.5 average depth of target), which is why his 69th-percentile ESPN OPEN score and 77th-percentile YAC score are especially impressive for a rookie. On the flip side, a 2nd-percentile contested catch rate implies he can't win in traffic at all, and a 25th-percentile drop rate is a concern. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception says Burden is “extremely talented” and that “the good heavily outweighs any critiques.” The opportunity for Year 2 is definitely there. Chicago has 149 vacated WR targets (48.1% of WR volume) with D.J. Moore gone, and Burden should definitely see a bump in snaps and targets. Early ADP has Burden going a full round ahead of his teammate, Rome Odunze.

London's profile creates a genuine tension between the eye test and the numbers. His ESPN OPEN score (31st percentile) and OVERALL (33rd percentile) suggest he rarely beats coverage cleanly–and yet his PFF route grade is 97th percentile and his YPRR is 92nd percentile, both among the best in the league. In 11 games last season he averaged 13.8 points per game–WR7 on a per-game basis–with 68 receptions for 919 yards and seven touchdowns. His 27th-percentile avoided tackle rate tells you he's not elite at extending plays after the catch, which further concentrates his value in volume and red zone usage. He's going as the WR8 in an offense that also features Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts, and the upside is a top-5 finish.

Shaheed's 2025 was a tale of two entirely different seasons. Before being traded to Seattle, he was producing at an 83-catch, 942-yard, 3.8-touchdown pace in nine games with the Saints–solid WR3-type numbers that reflected his ability as a route-runner and separator. After the trade, the role collapsed entirely: 15 receptions on 26 targets for 188 yards in nine games as a secondary option in a Seahawks offense built around Jaxon Smith-Njigba. His 81st-percentile ESPN OPEN score and 94th-percentile drop rate show the underlying talent is real, but the 2025 Seattle splits showed what happens when an offense isn’t ready to feature a player. The $51 million contract he signed with Seattle in the offseason is the interesting signal here. Teams don't pay $17 million per year to a rotational receiver, so that investment strongly implies he's being penciled in for a significantly larger role, which likely means Cooper Kupp's role is being reduced or restructured. He goes as a low-end WR5 with a 12th-round ADP and the upside is a featured No. 2 in a capable offense. The contract supports the bet: teams investing $51 million in a receiver tend to use them.

Adams turned in one of the more improbable statistical seasons of 2025—14 touchdowns in 14 games at 33 years old, finishing WR7 overall at 13.8 points per game. His 91st-percentile PFF route grade and 89th-percentile ESPN OPEN score confirm the separation ability is still there, and Matthew Stafford's elite efficiency continues to find him in the right spots. The sustainability questions are significant. A touchdown-per-game pace is almost certainly not repeatable–four fewer TDs would cost him nearly 24 points over a full season and shift him from WR1 to solid WR2 territory, which is still higher than he’s being drafted, so the touchdown regression is baked into his ADP. His ESPN YAC (15th percentile) and a 17th-percentile drop rate are genuine concerns for a player entering his age-34 season, and the Rams have essentially zero vacated WR targets to cushion any role reduction. He's a fine WR2 if Stafford stays healthy and the touchdowns hold at double digits–but you're drafting on faith in a 38-year-old quarterback and a 34-year-old receiver maintaining both a health and a production floor.

Consistency is St. Brown's defining trait. He's finished WR3 overall in back-to-back seasons–15.4 and 15.5 points per game–without a single significant injury. He does it with a 99th-percentile ESPN OPEN score and a 98th-percentile PFF route grade, getting open against coverage as cleanly as anyone in football. The 95th-percentile YPRR backs up the separation, and 11 touchdowns last season in an offense that doesn't lack for weapons (Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams) shows just how embedded he is in Detroit's red zone plan. Going as the WR4 with a late-first/early-second ADP, he's priced fairly for a player who should be drafted with confidence that he’ll deliver WR1 production.

Shakir's profile is genuinely unique, and understanding it requires separating what he does from how fantasy values it. His PFF YAC per reception (98th percentile, 7.6 yards) and avoided tackle rate (98th percentile) are both elite–he's one of the most elusive receivers in football with the ball in his hands. The ESPN YAC score (88th percentile) corroborates it. He runs almost exclusively from the slot (93rd percentile slot rate) at an extremely short 3.9 average depth of target, which means he's essentially a gadget weapon on manufactured touches–and he's genuinely excellent at creating from that role. The problem is the other half of the profile: a 34th-percentile ESPN OPEN score and 23rd-percentile CATCH score suggest he isn't winning clean or converting reliably, which puts a ceiling on how much target share he can command. Two straight years of WR35-36 finishes confirm this. He's a reliable contributor but not a weekly WR2. D.J. Moore's arrival in Buffalo adds another body to an already crowded target tree alongside Josh Allen's rushing volume. Moore played almost exclusively from the outside (84th-percentile wide rate last year), so he and Shakir aren't in direct competition for the slot, but Allen's runs suppress pass volume across the board and the math gets a little harder. As a midrange WR5 with a late ADP, Shakir is worth the dart throw for his elite YAC creation, but Moore's arrival is a mild headwind in an offense where targets were at a premium.

Higgins' rookie season was relatively efficient–41 receptions for 525 yards and six touchdowns in a limited role alongside Nico Collins in 17 games. The six touchdowns on 67 targets (a 9.0% TD rate) are impressive. His hands are good: an 82nd-percentile ESPN CATCH score and 82nd-percentile drop rate confirm he's reliable when the ball arrives. The 60th-percentile OPEN score and 64th-percentile route grade aren’t bad for a rookie. Higgins’ production picked up in the second half of the season. He played at a 49-624-7.7, WR5 pace from Week 8 on. Houston has 55 vacated WR targets (15.9% of WR volume), and the Tank Dell potential return cuts both ways–if Dell returns healthy and commands his usual 80-plus target share, Higgins operates as a complementary WR2/WR3 and the ceiling stays capped. If Dell's health is again an issue, Higgins could inherit significantly more volume alongside Collins.

Doubs arrives in New England as the WR1 (for now) in one of the most exciting young offenses in football, and that description would have been unthinkable a year ago. His underlying metrics were genuinely solid in Green Bay–76th-percentile ESPN OPEN score, 85th-percentile CATCH score, 83rd-percentile OVERALL, and a 72nd-percentile PFF route grade and 73rd-percentile YPRR. He's an outside receiver (11th-percentile slot rate) who wins on his routes and catches the ball reliably, which is exactly the profile Drake Maye's 100th-percentile efficiency can elevate. New England has 100 vacated WR targets (35.3% of WR volume), and Doubs is first in line to absorb them at this point. The A.J. Brown trade situation is the key: if Brown arrives, Doubs becomes a solid WR2 in one of the better offenses in football–a reasonable outcome given his WR4 ADP. If Brown doesn't come, Doubs is the likely WR1 with a legitimate top-20 ceiling. Either scenario at current ADP represents value. He's one of the more interesting double-digit values in the draft.

Two NFL seasons into what was supposed to be a generational career, Harrison remains one of fantasy's more puzzling investments. He's been WR32 and WR45 overall in his first two years–passable but unremarkable, with underlying metrics that don't yet reflect the talent that made him the fourth overall pick. His PFF route grade (50th percentile) and 10.9% drop rate (20th percentile) are genuinely concerning, and a 57th-percentile ESPN OPEN score suggests he's not consistently creating the separation his draft capital implied. In the seven games from Week 6 to Week 18 where Jacoby Brissett started and Michael Wilson played alongside him, Harrison averaged just 3.0 catches, 43 yards, and 0.29 touchdowns on 5.9 targets, or 7.8 fantasy points per game. Those are WR5-type numbers. The real variable is quarterback. Brissett is in contract negotiations with no deal reportedly close, which means Arizona could enter 2026 with a new signal-caller, and the effect of that change on both receivers is genuinely unknown. He's going as a low-end WR3, and barring glorious reports out of camp this summer, I’m not willing to draft him in that range. Two years of middling production demand the question: is this a situation problem, a development curve, or his actual ceiling?

Flowers is one of the most complete receivers in the league by the metrics and one of the more underrated by the overall rankings. His ESPN OVERALL score (96th percentile) and OPEN score (94th percentile) are both elite, as is his 97th-percentile YPRR. The 86th-percentile YAC per reception and 84th-percentile avoided tackle rate confirm what the eye test says: he's a dynamic playmaker who creates after the catch at an elite level. The production has been real–1,211 yards last season–but only five touchdowns dragged his overall finish to WR12. With Mark Andrews absorbing red zone targets at tight end and Derrick Henry handling goal-line carries, Flowers may perpetually be the best player on the Ravens who doesn't score enough. Baltimore's 43 vacated WR targets (21.1% of receiver targets) from departed players adds some incremental opportunity. He's going as the WR18, and the ceiling depends heavily on whether the touchdowns regress positively from five.

Wilson's 2025 season produced one of the most extreme situational splits in the league, and it tells you nearly everything you need to know about drafting him. In the seven games from Week 6 onward where Jacoby Brissett started and Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. shared the field, Wilson averaged 3.4 catches, 51 yards, and 0.29 touchdowns on 5.7 targets, or 8.5 points per game, a low-end WR4. In the five games where Harrison was out of the lineup, Wilson averaged 9.2 catches, 120 yards, and 0.80 touchdowns on 13.6 targets, mind-boggling production that would rank as THE WR1 over a full season. His underlying metrics support the burst: a 90th-percentile ESPN CATCH score and 88th-percentile contested catch rate make him one of the best ball-winners in the league, and the 77th-percentile PFF route grade says the technical foundation is real. The calculation at his WR4-type ADP is straightforward: he's a boom-or-bust bet on how much the Harrison-Wilson dynamic plays out in his favor. If Brissett doesn't return and Arizona installs a new quarterback who distributes targets differently, or if Harrison misses time again, Wilson's ceiling is legitimately top-15. Draft him knowing the floor is a frustrating WR4 and the ceiling is a potential league-winner.

Pearsall is near the bottom of the sample in separation (25th-percentile ESPN OPEN) but elite at catching the football when it arrives (92nd-percentile ESPN CATCH, 97th-percentile PFF contested catch rate). He doesn't get open easily and doesn't create after the catch–his 10th-percentile YAC per reception makes him one of the worst run-after-catch receivers in the league–but when the ball is in the air, he comes down with it about as reliably as anyone. Zero touchdowns in nine games last season destroyed his fantasy value, but San Francisco has 145 vacated WR targets (59.2% of WR volume) entering 2026. Jauan Jennings is gone, Mike Evans arrives as the established WR1, and Christian Kirk adds another option–but that still leaves a significant target pool available for Pearsall as Brock Purdy's intermediate possession option. Purdy's elite CPOE and anticipation throws fit Pearsall's contested-catch profile. As a low-end WR4, the market is expecting a receiver with elite hands in a target-rich environment at a discount driven by a zero-touchdown season.

There are times that the talent is elite and the ADP is still a problem. Nabers is one of the best young receivers in football–his combined 2024 season and three healthy games in 2025 average out to 14.7 points per game over 17 games, a genuine WR1 number that would have made him 2025’s WR6 on a per-game basis. His 92nd-percentile ESPN OPEN score reflects one of the best separation profiles at the position, and his 85th-percentile YPRR confirms that per-route production over a small but meaningful sample. The health situation is the entire conversation. Nabers underwent surgery for a torn ACL and meniscus in October, then had a follow-up procedure in April to remove scar tissue–the team says the second procedure doesn't delay the recovery timeline, but it's now been eight months since the initial injury. The Giants are targeting Week 1, though head coach John Harbaugh acknowledged it isn't guaranteed and Nabers could begin the year on the PUP list, which would cost him the first four games at minimum. Even if he plays Week 1, ACL recovery doesn't end at clearance–the ramp-up period introduces real risk of reduced production, potential setbacks, and the psychological adjustment of returning to game speed after a serious knee injury. He's going as the WR9 overall, which is a steep draft capital to use on a player who could miss the start of the season and faces legitimate uncertainty for weeks after returning. The floor of this pick is a frustrating, injury-managed half-season. The talent is real; the risk is terrifying.

McConkey's 2025 was a clear step back from his outstanding rookie campaign. He finished WR26 overall at 9.2 points per game, which was down from WR13 and 12.4 points per game in 2024. He caught 66 of 102 targets for 789 yards and six touchdowns in 16 games. Even in a disappointing year, the PFF underlying metrics paint a portrait of a solid possession receiver: 57th percentile route grade, 52nd percentile YPRR, and his 87th-percentile avoided tackle rate is genuinely good. The reason for optimism is the potential for more targets and a change in offensive philosophy with new OC Mike McDaniel at the helm. Keenan Allen's departure removes 100-plus targets from the Chargers' receiving corps, which might help McConkey even though he only saw a six-target drop from his rookie to sophomore season. McDaniel leans heavily on two-WR sets and that will typically help the two receivers who are on the field since they are now competing with a second tight end or a fullback for targets. McDaniel likes having a fullback on the field and this offseason, and the Chargers signed Alec Ingold right on cue. McConkey had a 92nd-percentile YPRR and an 82nd-percentile route grade as a rookie, so he’s done it before. With Allen out of the way and McDaniel calling the shots, I’m expecting a bounceback season into high-end WR2 territory.

Concepcion is the most well-rounded receiver in the 2026 class on paper. He transferred from NC State to Texas A&M and posted 61 catches for 919 yards and nine touchdowns in the SEC–a 15.1 yards per catch average that reflects his big-play ability. The PFF college metrics confirm the range: a 91st-percentile receiving grade, 88th-percentile yards per route run (2.46), 89th-percentile contested catch rate (66.7%), and 89th-percentile YAC per reception (7.2)–four key metrics all landing in the top 11% of the position simultaneously. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception was effusive: Concepcion's profile was nearly "all-green" in every route category, demolishing man and press coverage, producing reliably against zone, and winning above the rim and in space. The scheme flexibility is a real asset too–he split time between outside (65%) and slot (34%) alignment. The landing spot is the entire problem for 2026. Cleveland's quarterback situation heading into the summer–Shedeur Sanders, Deshaun Watson, and Dillon Gabriel competing for a job on a team that posted the worst passer rating in the NFL last season–puts a worrisome ceiling on any receiver's first-year output. Concepcion has the talent to flourish as a WR1/WR2 in a functional passing game; he just doesn't have one yet. It’s going to take competent quarterback play to unlock Concepcion’s potential.

The production metrics from Tyson’s limited college sample hold up under scrutiny: a 97th-percentile PFF receiving grade (85.3) and 84th-percentile yards per route run (2.37), and he drew 97 targets on 300 routes–a target-earning rate that should translate to the NFL. He lined up primarily outside (75% wide rate) but showed enough slot versatility (25%) to project as a movable piece at the next level. The contested catch rate (38th percentile) and YAC per reception (35th percentile) are the limitations–Tyson wins with route craft and target volume rather than physicality or creating YAC. As Matt Harmon of Reception Perception frames it, an Amari Cooper comparison comes to mind: a first-round talent who can be a quality complementary receiver and has a realistic path to "rounding into a steadier player with the right coaching.” Alongside Chris Olave, Tyson gives Tyler Shough a genuine 1-2 punch in Year 2 of the Kellen Moore offense. The eight receivers since 2010 that have been drafted in the 1.06-1.10 range and played 15+ games have averaged 78-988-6.0 on an average of 128 targets. He's going as the WR31, which despite those rookie averages, seems a little early given some of the other more-proven options still on the board at that point in fantasy drafts.

Williams is a slot receiver in its most refined form. He ran 93% of his routes from the slot at Clemson and the efficiency in that role was real: a 90th-percentile PFF receiving grade, 81st-percentile yards per route run (2.27), and an 11th-percentile aDOT (7.7) that tells you exactly what he is and isn't. He wins underneath, catches everything–76.4% catch rate, one drop on the season–and moves the chains. As Matt Harmon puts it, he's a "high-volume slot option you can set your watch by"–winning against man and zone, reliable across all levels, non-flashy but dependable. The Washington fit is legitimately interesting. As Littlefinger once observed, chaos is a ladder, and the Commanders' WR depth chart behind Terry McLaurin is deeply chaotic–Treylon Burks, Luke McCaffrey, Dyami Brown, Jaylin Lane, Van Jefferson. Williams' primary competition in the slot is former third-rounder McCaffrey and fourth-rounder Lane; anyone who wins that job inherits Deebo Samuel's vacated slot snaps in a Jayden Daniels offense that distributes heavily underneath. Daniels' accuracy and willingness to check down is a natural complement to Williams' short-area game. The ceiling is genuinely capped by the 7.7 aDOT profile–he needs 80-plus targets to matter in fantasy and won't produce many explosive plays–but in a PPR format with a fully healthy Daniels throwing him the ball, he could be a viable weekly WR3 if he plays starter’s snaps. Keep an eye on Washington’s camp competition in the slot.

When Kittle is healthy, there's an argument he's the most complete tight end in the game. His ESPN OVERALL score (100th percentile) and PFF pass route grade (100th percentile) were both the best in the entire TE sample last season—and this was in only 10 games before a torn Achilles ended his year. In those 10 games, he averaged 12.8 points per game, TE2 on a per-game basis. In 2024, he was the overall TE1 at 13.9 per game over 14 games. His YPRR (2.15, 95th percentile) and his contested catch rate (84.6%, 92nd percentile) confirm that he's an elite route runner and a physical mismatch when the ball is in the air. The 49ers added Mike Evans and Christian Kirk to replace Jauan Jennings, and Brock Purdy's 98th percentile CPOE should give us plenty of confidence that Kittle will continue to receive quality targets. The torn Achilles recovery is the entire story. He could miss the start of the season, and the timeline matters enormously at his current TE10 ADP—a price that gives you significant upside if he plays 13-plus games and a frustrating experience if he misses the first month and/or the injury lingers deep into the season. Draft him knowing you'll need a streaming plan for the early weeks, and that you're paying a discounted price on one of the best players at the position when he's right. And he might be right by the fantasy playoffs.

Pitts finally delivered on a fraction of his draft pedigree in 2025, finishing as the overall TE2 with 88 receptions, 928 yards, and five touchdowns on 114 targets. The PFF metrics confirm the underlying talent is real: 86th-percentile route grade and 83rd-percentile YPRR among qualified tight ends. The ESPN receiver scores tell a more nuanced story—49th percentile in OPEN, 71st percentile OVERALL—suggesting that Pitts wins through size and athleticism rather than pure separation, which aligns with the trajectory of his career. The concern is the volatility that shadowed him even in a TE2 season: only six of 16 games went over 10 points, and five went under five. Both Bijan Robinson and Drake London will continue to act as a volume ceiling. In fact, Pitts’s scoring output doubled in the five games that London missed (7.4 vs. 15.5). Pitts is going as the TE7, which reflects the 2025 output without fully pricing in the inconsistency. He's a legitimate every-week starter who will frustrate you in the weeks when the touchdowns don't come.

Loveland's rookie season is a case study in talent that took a while to show up on the field. He finished TE14 overall and TE18 per game at 7.7 points per game, but his underlying metrics rank among the elite at the position. His PFF pass route grade (97th percentile) and YPRR (1.86, 92nd percentile) are both near the top of the tight end sample, and his ESPN OPEN score (68th percentile) suggests he’s able to shed coverage consistently. There’s a long list of tight ends who have broken out in their sophomore year, and the signs are there. From Week 9 on, he was the overall TE2 behind Trey McBride. He's currently going as the third tight end off the board, and the market is essentially pricing in a breakout that appears to have already begun.

Andrews' 2025 was one of the more puzzling statistical profiles at the position. He finished TE16 overall and TE23 per game at just 6.5 points per game, and ten of 16 games went under five points. And yet his ESPN OPEN score was 100th percentile, the best in the entire TE sample, meaning he was getting free against coverage at an elite rate. The disconnect traces directly to role and opportunity. Isaiah Likely's presence absorbed significant target share, Andrews never established a consistent volume baseline, and his YAC per reception (2nd percentile) tells you his role was limited to short catches with minimal room to operate after the catch. His 40th-percentile YPRR is average, and with Likely gone and Andrews as the unquestioned TE1 in Baltimore's offense, the target share could climb significantly. In the four games over the last two seasons that Andrews has played without Likely in the lineup, he has averaged an 81% snap share, 3.5 receptions, 42 yards, and 0.75 touchdowns. The 11th-round ADP is appealing for a player who finished TE5 and TE7 per game in 2024. At 31, he should still have a couple of good seasons left as tight ends tend to age gracefully. He's one of the better value plays at the position.

Hockenson's first fully healthy season since his ACL tear was disappointing on every level. He finished TE23 overall at 5.8 points per game with 51 receptions for 438 yards and three touchdowns on 64 targets in 15 games, which was a far cry from the elite TE1 production he posted in 2023 before the injury. The PFF metrics are unflattering across the board: a 36th-percentile route grade, an 18th-percentile YPRR, and a 5.2 average depth of target that confirms his role was reduced to short looks. The ESPN OPEN score (60th percentile) is at least functional, suggesting he was getting some separation, but the OVERALL score (30th percentile) reflects what the volume and efficiency numbers say–he wasn't getting the looks or making enough of them when he did. The interesting wrinkle for 2026 is the QB change. Kyler Murray replaces J.J. McCarthy, bringing a mobile, off-script element that often benefits tight ends through broken plays and second-reaction scrambles. Jauan Jennings adds another reliable target underneath, which might compress Hockenson's middle-of-the-field role. He's going as a TE2 in the late rounds, and the upside is real if the Murray-Hockenson connection clicks and his role expands. The floor is another disappointing season if the underlying efficiency numbers don't improve.

Kraft was one of my favorite middle-round values last year and if his ADP lingers in the sixth or seventh round this season, he’s going to be my primary target at the position. The ACL tear that ended his season in Week 9 may have obscured one of the most impressive statistical profiles at the tight end position. In seven games before the injury, he averaged 14.0 points per game—the overall TE1 on a per-game basis—and was playing at a 73-catch, 1139-yard, 14.6-touchdown pace. The PFF metrics were historic for a player in just his second full year: 99th percentile in YPRR (2.33) and 100th percentile in YAC per reception (10.8) among tight ends. His 90th percentile route grade suggests this wasn't a small-sample fluke—he was creating separation and turning targets into big plays at an elite rate. His ESPN OVERALL score (89th percentile) and the 86th-percentile avoided tackle rate further reinforce the profile. Kraft is on track to return for Week 1, but at a seventh-round ADP, the value is significant if he comes back near full health. You're getting a player who was producing at a TE1 per-game pace before the injury for a fraction of the price of the tier above him.

Schultz quietly put together a strong 2025 season that the broader fantasy community didn't fully recognize. He finished TE12 overall at 8.0 points per game with 82 receptions on 106 targets for 777 yards and three touchdowns—real volume in a Texans offense that funnels short-area work through the tight end position. The ESPN scores are genuinely elite: 95th percentile in OPEN score and 94th percentile in OVERALL, both of which point to a player consistently winning his routes against coverage. His PFF route grade (78th percentile) and drop rate (83rd percentile) confirm he's reliable in the role. The areas that hold him back are YAC per reception (28th percentile) and contested catch rate (15th percentile)—he isn't going to make things happen after the catch or win contested catches, which keeps a ceiling on his big-week potential. The touchdown count of three was unusually low relative to his volume, and positive regression there alone could push him into the TE1 conversation. The variable to watch is Tank Dell's potential return. If Dell comes back healthy and reclaims a meaningful target share alongside Nico Collins, Jayden Higgins, and rookie additions, Schultz's volume could come under pressure. As is, he's going as a TE2 in the late rounds and represents one of the safer floors at the position. He’s a reasonable-floor pick whose ceiling is capped by the YAC and contested catch limitations rather than the volume.

Likely spent last year as the clear second tight end in Baltimore behind Mark Andrews, and his 34 targets in 13 games reflects his role, not his ability. His ESPN OPEN score (68th percentile) and contested catch rate (79th percentile) both point to a functional receiver, and in 2024, when he had more opportunity in Baltimore, he finished TE16 overall at 6.5 points per game. Now he heads to New York to reunite with John Harbaugh as the projected TE1 in a Giants offense built around Jaxson Dart. Malik Nabers will command the lion's share of the attention, but the TE role in Dart's operation should generate consistent underneath looks. The competition with Theo Johnson is worth monitoring; Johnson finished TE15 overall in 2025 and is an athletic player in his own right, though his route grade (57th percentile) and YPRR (44th percentile) suggest he's not a polished route runner yet. Likely's PFF route grade (17th percentile) isn't reassuring either, so this is a volume-over-efficiency play at a position where the volume is genuine, assuming he wins the job. One encouraging note: In the 19 career games where he’s played at least 40 snaps, he has averaged 3.5-42-0.53, or 9.1 fantasy points per game, which are low-end TE1 numbers. He's going around TE15, which is a fair-to-aggressive price for a player moving into his first true TE1 role with an ascending quarterback. The Giants will throw to the tight end—the question is whether it's mostly Likely or split more evenly than the market expects.

Gadsden took on the TE1 role in Los Angeles last season and delivered a mixed result—TE17 overall, TE19 per game at 7.4 points per game over 14 games, with significant volatility on both ends. He had a 25.9-point explosion but also six games under five points. His YPRR (1.66, 76th percentile) was genuinely solid for a first-year starter, and his contested catch rate (66.7%, 78th percentile) shows he can come down with the football when challenged. The big issue now is the signing of David Njoku, who arrives as a proven TE1-caliber player and immediately complicates Gadsden's target security. Gadsden's value last season was entirely predicated on being the primary option at the position, so if Njoku absorbs the red zone work, Gadsden’s potential breakout season just isn’t going to happen. Post Njoku signing, he's now going as the TE15, which better reflects his current situation as a riskier TE2 in a potential timeshare. Proceed with caution until the role is defined.

Kincaid's per-game profile in 2025 was legitimately elite. In 11 games, he averaged 9.1 points while posting a 100th-percentile YPRR (2.79) and 95th-percentile PFF route grade–the best YPRR in the entire tight end sample. His ESPN OVERALL score (98th percentile) and OPEN score (95th percentile) are both at the top of the position. When Kincaid was on the field with Josh Allen, he was one of the most productive receiving tight ends in the league. The rub is the 12 games in 2025 and 13 in 2024–he hasn't yet strung together a full healthy season, and the Bills' offense is a little more crowded with D.J. Moore now in the room alongside Khalil Shakir. Kincaid is going as the TE13, and that price represents a bet on a player with the efficiency markers of a top-five tight end who hasn’t recently been able to stay healthy long enough to prove it over a full year. If Kincaid plays 15-plus games in 2026, his underlying metrics suggest he could run away with a top-10 season. Discount accordingly for the health risk, but don't lose sight of the fact that the production when healthy has been exceptional.

Okonkwo has spent three NFL seasons in Tennessee waiting for a quarterback to unlock his clear athletic profile, and now he gets one after a change of scenery. He arrives in Washington with Jayden Daniels under center and Zach Ertz out of the way, giving him the first realistic path to a TE1 season. The traits have always been there—a 92nd-percentile speed score plus a 93rd-percentile avoided tackle rate that puts him among the position's better YAC threats. His ESPN OPEN score (68th percentile) suggests he can create separation, and his contested catch rate (84th percentile) and YAC per reception (86th percentile) are both genuine strengths. The PFF route grade (50th percentile) and YPRR (46th percentile) are unspectacular, but they came in an offense that limited his role and was rarely throwing in advantageous situations. Daniels' efficiency and the upgraded receiving corps around him should create cleaner looks underneath that Okonkwo's athleticism can exploit. He's a late-round pick with a path to real fantasy relevance.

Otton is one of the more interesting late-round bets at the position thanks to a specific and well-documented opportunity profile. He finished TE30 overall in 2025 at just 4.9 points per game—a meaningful step back from his TE13 finish in 2024—largely because of touchdown regression. He caught 59 of 80 targets for 572 yards but scored just one touchdown, which torpedoed what would have otherwise been a productive volume season. The underlying metrics are mixed: a 75th-percentile ESPN OPEN score suggests he gets open at a reasonable rate, but his PFF route grade (16th percentile) and YPRR (24th percentile) point to inefficiency on a per-snap basis. His slot rate (81st percentile) and short 5.1 average depth of target frame him as an underneath option who profits from volume rather than from creating big plays. The reason he matters in 2026 is Mike Evans' departure. In the 12 games Evans has missed over the last two seasons, Otton has averaged 6.6 targets, 4.8 catches, 44 yards, and 0.25 touchdowns per game, which works out to 8.4 fantasy points per game, or midrange TE2 numbers. Evans wasn't just any departing receiver; he was Tampa's primary red zone threat, and the touchdowns that flowed through him should redistribute meaningfully. Chris Godwin returns from injury, Emeka Egbuka takes on a larger role, and Jalen McMillan is back, but none of those three is a Mike Evans-level red zone presence. Otton, at 6'5", is the most logical beneficiary in the end zone. He's going as a TE3 in the late rounds, and the path to a TE15 or better finish is genuinely there. He’s a solid late-round flier with positive regression baked in.

Washington is one of the more interesting athletic profiles at the position–6'7" with a 96th-percentile speed score, the kind of physical archetype that should translate into a featured receiving role at some point in his NFL career. The 2025 numbers don't yet reflect that potential: he averaged 3.6 points per game on just 43 targets. But the advanced metrics tell a more intriguing story. His YPRR (85th percentile), YAC per reception (97th percentile), and avoided tackle rate (98th percentile) are all elite–when Washington gets the ball, he creates after the catch better than nearly any TE in the league. The drop rate (7th percentile) is a real concern that he'll need to address. Jonnu Smith's departure clears the secondary TE role, and even with Pat Freiermuth firmly entrenched as the lead, Washington should see more snaps and more route opportunities. The HC Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers combination should lean slightly more pass-heavy than recent Steelers offenses, and 12-personnel sets that feature both tight ends are likely to be a meaningful component of the playbook. He's a deep-league dart throw with legitimate athletic upside if the volume materializes.

Barner quietly put together one of the better Year 2 leaps at the position, jumping from 3.2 points per game as a rookie to a TE13 finish at 7.4 points per game in 2025. The six touchdowns drove most of the production, but he caught 52 of 64 targets for a solid 519 yards in 17 games. The PFF underlying metrics are middling rather than impressive (69th percentile route grade, 53rd percentile YPRR), but his ESPN OVERALL score (77th percentile) is genuinely good, and his contested catch rate (78th percentile) and avoided tackle rate (73rd percentile) suggest he's a solid receiver for an in-line tight end. The 3rd percentile slot rate confirms what the eye test says: Barner is a true Y-TE, lined up tight to the formation, doing damage near the line of scrimmage rather than streaking down the seams. That role profile gives him a touchdown-dependent fantasy ceiling, and the six TDs from last year may not be entirely repeatable, though he’s the biggest target that Sam Darnold has. He's going as a TE2 in deeper formats, and he's a fine late-round option for managers who want a player with weekly TE1 upside attached to red zone usage—just don't expect significant volume growth.

Helm's rookie year wasn't statistically impressive–4.4 points per game and a TE33 finish despite playing 16 games–but the underlying picture is a developmental piece who showed enough to warrant attention in Year 2. His PFF route grade (61st percentile) and YPRR (61st percentile) were respectable for a rookie, and his contested catch rate (70th percentile) suggests he can come down with the ball when challenged. The ESPN scores aren't where you'd hope—29th percentile in OPEN, 41st percentile in OVERALL. With Chigoziem Okonkwo gone, the TE1 role in Tennessee is Helm's to lose, and the opportunity matters enormously for a player who saw just 55 targets in his debut season. Cam Ward's own development is the variable that will determine whether Helm's expanded role translates into fantasy production.