Willis is one of the most fascinating quarterback values in 2026 drafts. After two years of flashing elite rushing ability and surprising passing chops in limited action with the Packers, Willis lands in Miami as the projected starter. In his lone start last season (Week 17), he rushed for 60 yards and two touchdowns while throwing for 288 yards, resulting in a 31.5-point fantasy explosion. His EPA per dropback and CPOE were off the charts, though on just 35 pass attempts, which is far too small a sample to draw any real conclusions about his passing. What we can draw conclusions from is the rushing. Willis has legitimate dual-threat ability, and that kind of floor is what makes backup-turned-starter quarterbacks fantasy-relevant. In his three starts in the last two seasons for the Packers, he scored 13.0, 25.4, and 31.5. Throw in another 13.2 in relief while playing 64% of the snaps, and there is reason for optimism about Willis’s prospects as a starter. On the other hand, he no longer has Matt LaFleur calling plays or the Packers' weapons at his disposal. Miami's receiver room is in serious flux—Chris Bell, Caleb Douglas, Malik Washington, Greg Dulcich, and free agent additions Jalen Tolbert and Tutu Atwell are a far cry from a proven group. Willis is going as a low-end QB2, and at that price, the rushing upside alone makes him a worthwhile pick. If the passing translates to a full season and even one or two of those receivers emerge, he could be this year's breakout quarterback. The Dolphins are likely to trail for most of the season, so he could be the new Blake Bortles–another “garbage time hero.”

Allen is the safest pick at the quarterback position, and it's not particularly close. He's finished QB1 and QB2 the last two seasons while playing all 34 games, and his consistency is remarkable—he's scored 20-plus fantasy points in 59% of games over that stretch with only four games below 10. His 2025 efficiency was elite: 93rd percentile in EPA per dropback and 87th percentile in CPOE, and the rushing remains the league's best fantasy cheat code at the position. Allen averaged 37.4 rushing yards per start with 14 rushing touchdowns last season. That's a RB2 season's worth of rushing touchdowns on top of 25 passing touchdowns, and it’s his third consecutive season with at least 12 rushing touchdowns. The Bills added D.J. Moore to a receiving corps that already includes Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid, giving Allen arguably his deepest set of pass-catchers since Stefon Diggs was in Buffalo. He's going as the QB1 off the board with an overall ADP around pick 30, and that's the right price. The only question is whether you want to spend that draft capital on a quarterback when you could wait and get a value QB significantly later. But if you want the highest floor and the highest ceiling at the position, Allen is the pick. If the draft gets weird and the available options in the third round aren’t too appealing, then Allen is an extremely safe pick.

Stafford's 2025 season was a remarkable reversal. After a miserable 2024 in which he finished QB18 overall—QB26 on a per-game basis—with seven games under 10 fantasy points, he turned around and posted the QB3 finish at 20.2 points per game, with nine games over 20 and just one below 10. This, after an offseason where all we heard was that he had a balky back. The 46 passing touchdowns were the most in the NFL and his EPA per dropback (91st percentile) was elite. Puka Nacua and Davante Adams give him one of the best receiver duos in the league, and Terrance Ferguson is emerging as a weapon at tight end. The catch is everything you'd expect from a 38-year-old pocket passer with zero rushing upside (1.3 yards per start). Stafford is entirely touchdown-dependent, and 46 TDs in a season is not a sustainable baseline. A regression to the mid-30s is the realistic expectation, which would shave several points per game off his 2025 average. He's going as a high-end QB2, which is a fair price given the talent around him, but not a bargain given that you're projecting off a career-outlier touchdown total. Draft him as a reliable QB2 with a chance to finish as a low-end QB1.

Darnold's fantasy career has been a wild ride. He finished QB8 in 2024 with Minnesota—one of the bigger surprises of the fantasy season—and promptly followed it with a QB14 overall finish in Seattle that translates to just QB25 on a per-game basis. The regression was steep: he averaged 17.2 points per game in the first half of 2025 before cratering to 11.2 after the midpoint, finishing with six games below 10 points. The interceptions were a real problem—14 on the season—which undercut what was otherwise genuinely accurate play (93rd percentile in CPOE) and solid efficiency (80th percentile in EPA per dropback). He also brings almost nothing on the ground, averaging 6.4 rushing yards per start with zero rushing touchdowns. The roster in Seattle has turned over at running back—Kenneth Walker is gone, replaced by rookie Jadarian Price—but the passing game has some upside. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a legitimate number-one, and Rashid Shaheed should make more of an impact in his second year in the offense. Cooper Kupp adds a reliable veteran presence. Whether this group is enough to keep Darnold out of double-digit-interception territory again is the real question. Darnold is going as a low-end QB2, and that's about right. He's a frustrating player to roster—flashes of genuine quality surrounded by stretches of turnover-prone football that will lose you weeks.

The reunion with Mike McCarthy and the Pittsburgh supporting cast gives Rodgers his most familiar situation since Green Bay, but the efficiency metrics from his first two years back haven't justified much more than a streaming quarterback. He's finished QB16 and QB18 overall in back-to-back seasons at 14.5 and 13.9 points per game–QB23 and QB27 on a per-game basis–and his advanced metrics reflect exactly what those numbers suggest: 44th percentile in both EPA per dropback and CPOE, dead average efficiency from a player who was once elite. Pittsburgh has 102 vacated WR targets (44.3% of WR volume), and pairing DK Metcalf with Michael Pittman and rookie Germie Bernard gives Rodgers a decent set of options to throw to. McCarthy's system historically generates passing volume, and if the Steelers' offense leans into Rodgers' arm more than the previous regime, there's a path to high-end QB2 production, though I’m not holding my breath.

Lawrence has quietly put together a strong case as one of the most undervalued quarterbacks at his price point. After back-to-back injury-shortened seasons, he returned healthy in 2025 and finished QB4 overall at 19.7 points per game—and the second-half surge was striking, improving from 16.6 points per game before the midpoint to 22.7 after it. The rushing is underrated: Lawrence averaged 21.6 yards per start with nine rushing touchdowns last season, a number that rivals some of the best dual-threat weeks at the position. His accuracy still lags—29th percentile in CPOE—but the EPA per dropback (69th percentile) and the touchdown production suggest he makes enough plays where it counts. The Jaguars lost Travis Etienne but added Chris Rodriguez to help carry the backfield load, and it's Year 2 with Liam Coen, who is making the case that he’s one of the best offensive minds in the league. The receiving corps features Brian Thomas Jr. as a possible WR1, Jakobi Meyers as a reliable slot option, the efficient Parker Washington, and Travis Hunter, who has the talent to produce, provided he gets enough run on offense. Lawrence is going as a midrange QB1, and given his QB4 finish last year and the rushing floor he provides, that price looks fair. If the second-year Coen offense unlocks another level, there's top-five upside here once again.

Mayfield's 2025 was a rude correction after a career year in 2024. He went from a QB5 finish at 21.5 points per game to QB12 overall but just QB18 on a per-game basis at 16.2 points per game—a drop of over five points per game. The efficiency numbers reflected the decline: 56th percentile in EPA per dropback and 27th percentile in CPOE, a far cry from the guy who threw for 41 touchdowns and carried fantasy rosters two seasons ago. He faded as the year wore on, averaging 17.6 points in the first half and 14.8 in the second, with a pair of sub-5-point clunkers mixed in along the way. Now he loses Mike Evans, his most reliable weapon over the past two seasons, and that's a real concern. The hope is that Chris Godwin's return to full health, Jalen McMillan coming back from his own injury, and Emeka Egbuka can collectively absorb Evans' vacated targets and red-zone presence. That's a lot of "ifs" for a quarterback whose accuracy was already slipping. Cade Otton provides a steady check-down option at tight end, and Mayfield's legs (23.0 rush yards per start) offer a modest floor. The upside is a top-10 finish if the receiving corps gels. The downside is a QB2 with limited ceiling if the Evans-sized hole doesn't get filled. At the cost of a low-end QB2, the risk-reward is palatable, but he's more of a QB2 with upside than a reliable starter.

Love's 2025 season was a tale of two stories. On the surface, he finished QB13 with a QB21 per-game average—solid, but not great. But Love left three games early due to injury (Weeks 11, 12, and 16), and when those are removed, his per-game average jumps to 17.2 points, or about QB14 on a per-game basis. More importantly, his efficiency metrics were outstanding: 98th percentile in EPA per dropback and 96th percentile in CPOE, both top marks in the league. The talent and the efficiency are clearly there—the question is whether the Packers will let Love cook, since it’s his passing volume that’s holding him back, not his arm. A healthy Christian Watson and Jayden Reed, the emerging Matthew Golden and Savion Williams, and an elite Tucker Kraft returning from an ACL tear give Love plenty of weapons. If Green Bay increases the pass rate even slightly and Love stays healthy, the gap between his efficiency and his fantasy output should close in a hurry.

Hurts has been one of the most bankable fantasy quarterbacks in football, finishing QB6 and QB7 the last two seasons while playing nearly every game. His per-game average dipped from 21.0 to 18.7 points last year, but the rushing production continued to anchor his floor—26.3 yards per game with eight rushing touchdowns. His accuracy was strong (82nd percentile in CPOE) and the efficiency was solid (67th percentile in EPA per dropback), though the second half of last season was uneven, as he averaged 21.7 points in the first eight games and 15.7 the rest of the way. The big question heading into 2026 is the receiving corps. A.J. Brown is gone, though the Eagles moved up in the first round to nab Makai Lemon and added Dontayvion Wicks and Hollywood Brown. DeVonta Smith is more than capable of stepping into the WR1 role and Dallas Goedert provides a reliable safety valve. Hurts offers solid value at QB7.

Purdy is one of my favorite values at the position. He was the QB24 last season, but he only played eight games—and in those eight games, he was the overall QB2 on a per-game basis at 21.5 points per game. He closed the season on a tear, posting 26.2, 30.9, and 36.9 fantasy points in his final three games. His efficiency metrics were elite: 96th percentile in EPA per dropback and 98th percentile in CPOE among 45 qualified passers. The 49ers lost Jauan Jennings but added Mike Evans and Christian Kirk, and re-signed Deebo Samuel as Ricky Pearsall was lost for the season. George Kittle is recovering from a torn Achilles and the hope is that he'll be ready for Week 1. Christian McCaffrey rounds out a receiving corps that should give Purdy plenty to work with. He’s going off the board as a high-end QB2, and that's a steal for a quarterback who has finished QB6 and QB9 on a per-game basis in his last two healthy seasons and was the QB2 per game last year. Durability is the only real concern, but as a ninth-round pick, it’s easy to back him up with another quality passer in the next few rounds and run with a committee.

After an outstanding rookie year, Stroud has now finished QB19 and QB21 in back-to-back seasons, and the raw numbers don't tell the whole story. His EPA per dropback (78th percentile) was genuinely solid, suggesting he's playing better football than the fantasy results indicate. The accuracy (49th percentile in CPOE) has room to grow, but the bigger drag on his weekly output is the lack of meaningful rushing contribution—15.3 yards per start with one rushing touchdown isn’t much in today’s fantasy landscape. Nico Collins is a legitimate number-one, but Tank Dell's extended absence and the lack of a second reliable weapon kept Stroud from finding much rhythm as the season progressed, though Jayden Higgins had some moments down the stretch. The path to another QB1 season is real: a healthy Tank Dell returning alongside Collins and the addition of rookie Jayden Higgins would give Stroud three genuine options for the first time in his career. David Montgomery replaces Nick Chubb and could stabilize the backfield, and Dalton Schultz is a competent check-down presence at tight end. Stroud is going as a low-end QB2, and that's where the value proposition lives—if the receiver room fully comes together, he has a top-15 ceiling in an efficient offense. But two straight years of so-so outcomes means the burden of proof is on him to demonstrate he can reliably produce in fantasy without an elite supporting cast surrounding him.

Brissett was one of the better stories in fantasy football last season once he found his footing. From Week 6 through the end of the year, he averaged 18.9 points per game over 12 starts, which would have ranked among the top eight quarterbacks in fantasy over that stretch. The accuracy was solid at 67th percentile in CPOE, and while the EPA per dropback (36th percentile) suggests room for improvement in overall efficiency, the results spoke for themselves. He's working with a genuinely good supporting cast. Trey McBride is one of the best weapons at tight end in the entire league, Michael Wilson broke out last season and gives him a legitimate No. 2 option, Jeremiyah Love is a dynamic young running back who will keep defenses honest, and Marvin Harrison Jr. remains a player with unrealized upside who could finally put it together. Kendrick Bourne adds a reliable depth option. Brissett is going as a low-end QB2 to not drafted, and the late-season version of him is significantly better than that price. He won't win you a league, but if the Cardinals continue developing their weapons around him, he's a legitimate streaming option with some weeks where he can post QB1 numbers, and is a sneaky third option in two-quarterback formats.

Williams took a meaningful step forward in Year 2, improving from a solid QB14 rookie finish to the overall QB6 at 18.8 points per game, a 3.6-point-per-game increase. He showed the ability to spike with a 37.7-point explosion, and demonstrated that Ben Johnson's system fits his skillset. The rushing contribution (22.8 yards per start, three touchdowns) gives him a nice floor that his rookie season didn't always provide. The advanced stat concerns are real, though. His CPOE sat at the 16th percentile. He can make plays, but he remains an inconsistent thrower, and losing D.J. Moore, his veteran security blanket, matters. Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland, and second-year Luther Burden III all have upside, however. Year 2 in Johnson's system should help, and the ceiling is firmly top-five if the accuracy improves and the receiver group gels. He's going as a midrange QB1, which means you're paying for the upside while accepting the inconsistency. If the CPOE improves to match his EPA (62nd percentile), he's a borderline value. If it doesn't, he may be hard-pressed to match his ADP.

Mendoza is the clear QB1 in this class after leading Indiana to a national title and a Heisman. Advanced stats-wise, his college profile is rare: a 98th-percentile PFF Pass Grade (90.7), 94th-percentile Adjusted Completion % (79.0), and 98th-percentile yards per attempt (9.3). He wasn't manufacturing that efficiency underneath either—his aDOT sat at 9.8 yards. Forty-one touchdowns against six picks across 16 games. My Rookie QB model predicts around 17 yards rushing per game, which is not nothing, and the landing spot has pieces. Brock Bowers is a top-three fantasy tight end, Ashton Jeanty should take a leap in Year 2 under Klint Kubiak's run-heavy scheme, and the Tyler Linderbaum signing shores up the interior line. The receiver room is the problem—Tre Tucker, Jack Bech, and Dont’e Thornton are underwhelming, and Kubiak's play-action-heavy system could cap passing volume. Kirk Cousins adds a short-term murky timeline, though most first-overall QBs are starting within weeks. QB3 in redraft with a ceiling tied to the weapons around him; priority dynasty target at a discounted price.

Taylor finished as the RB2 in half-PPR formats in 2025, trailing only Christian McCaffrey. After an injury-shortened 2024 that dropped him to RB14 in 13 games, he returned with a full workload and validated his standing as a top-tier bell cow. The efficiency leans heavily on what he does after contact–his YAC/Att ranked at the 88th percentile among qualified backs. His 82nd-percentile PFF run grade confirms he's operating at an above-average level as a runner even when the blocking isn't generating much pre-contact space (57th-percentile YBC/Att). The receiving role is solid but not spectacular–54 targets, 46 catches, 378 yards–enough to support his half-PPR ceiling without driving it. A locked-in workhorse with elite after-contact traits. Draft him as a high-floor RB1.

Jones dropped from RB15 in 2024 to RB43 in 2025, missing five games with injury and posting efficiency numbers that suggest the decline is real and not just about availability. He ranked dead last among qualified backs in elusive rating–65th out of 65 qualified backs–and his run grade came in at the 18th percentile, his broken-tackle rate at the 20th. At 31 years old, those aren't numbers that are likely to bounce back. The receiving role was present in volume but the route grade ranked at the 10th percentile. Given his struggles running the ball, there's not much here for fantasy purposes unless injuries open the door, and even then the underlying metrics aren’t encouraging.

McCaffrey finished as the RB1 in half-PPR formats in 2025, but the caveat is significant–he appeared in just four games in 2024. When healthy, his production is driven almost entirely by the passing game. He led all running backs in targets (121) and route grade (99th percentile among qualified RBs), while ranking 3rd in YPRR (96th percentile)–a profile that sets him apart from traditional workhorses. The rushing efficiency tells a different story: his run grade (14th percentile) and YAC/Att (9th percentile) are well below average, suggesting he's no longer the same threat between the tackles. However, given his receiving, the upside is the weekly RB1 ceiling when healthy.

Barkley went from the overall RB1 in 2024 to RB13 in 2025, and the efficiency numbers suggest the regression may be real. His run grade fell to the 60th percentile, his elusive rating to the 48th, and his YAC/Att to the 14th. Not great. The receiving role was voluminous (86th-percentile target share) but not efficient; his route grade ranked at the 14th percentile and his YPRR (0.84) was below average. Philadelphia added tackle Markel Bell in the third round, but he’s known more as a pass-blocker than a mauler in the run game. Barkley is 29, entrenched as the starter, and volume and touchdown opportunities should be fine. Which was the outlier–2024 or 2025? The data leans toward the former.

Jacobs dropped from RB5 in 2024 to RB12 in 2025, though he was the RB9 on a per-game basis and his 2025 season still had its moments–13 rushing touchdowns kept him relevant even as his per-game average dipped from 16.5 to 14.6 points per game. The efficiency picture is uneven. His PFF run grade ranked at the 77th percentile and his broken-tackle rate at the 62nd, but his YBC/Att came in at the 26th percentile, reflecting an offensive line that wasn't generating much room before contact. His success rate (40th percentile) confirms the ground game was a bit of a grind. The receiving profile is the most underrated part of his game–his route grade ranked at the 95th percentile, and his YPRR at the 75th, making him a quality pass-catcher despite the modest target volume. The blocking environment seems to be trending the wrong way. The Packers ranked 31st in net OL spending this offseason, lost two net linemen (Elgton Jenkins and Rasheed Walker), and made no offensive line investments in the first three rounds of the draft, though they did draft a center (Jager Burton) in the fifth round. The run blocking was already a liability in 2025, and there's no obvious reason to expect improvement this season. The more pressing issue is off the field. Jacobs was arrested on May 23rd following a domestic disturbance complaint and booked on five charges: battery, criminal damage to property, disorderly conduct, strangulation and suffocation, and intimidation of a victim. His attorneys state he is denying the charges. The Brown County District Attorney's Office subsequently indicated it is not yet prepared to formally charge him, noting that while probable cause supported the arrest, the evidence did not meet the DA's higher standard for prosecution. The case remains open and charges could still be filed. An NFL suspension is possible this season or next, and the range of outcomes–no suspension, a multi-game suspension, or something longer–is wide enough to make him impossible to draft with confidence. Until there is more clarity on the legal and disciplinary front, he's a player to monitor rather than actively target.

When Dobbins is healthy and playing, he’s a serious fantasy asset. He ranked RB18 through the first 10 weeks of 2025 on 16.4 touches per game at 5.0 yards per carry, and the advanced metrics are consistent with that output–89th-percentile YAC/Att, 71st-percentile run grade, 65th-percentile success rate. He's a quality runner who generates after contact and converts on a high percentage of his carries. The foot sprain that ended his season after Week 10 was just the latest entry in a four-year injury history that has resulted in 32 total games played. Yikes. The receiving role belongs to Harvey, who ran routes far more efficiently in 2025, so Dobbins' value is almost entirely carry-dependent. Midrange RB2 numbers are well within reach on a full season, but a full season is the one thing Dobbins hasn't managed to string together. He's a talented back who has to be drafted as an injury risk and shouldn’t be counted upon to be available in December.

Pollard has finished RB21 and RB22 in back-to-back seasons, which is reliable production but not particularly useful for fantasy. His efficiency profile explains the ceiling. His run grade (28th percentile), success rate (18th percentile), and YAC/Att (35th percentile) are all below average, and his elusive rating (42nd percentile) doesn't suggest he's generating many yards on his own. His YBC/Att (72nd percentile) is pretty good, and indicates Tennessee's line creates some pre-contact room. His receiving game compounds the issue–his YPRR (18th percentile) and route grade (22nd percentile) are near the bottom of the position despite decent target volume (41). The ceiling here is another mid-low-end RB2 season.

Henderson's 2025 splits tell two very different stories. In Rhamondre Stevenson's 13 healthy games, he averaged 10.5 touches, 56 yards, and 0.38 touchdowns–low-end RB3 production. In the games where Stevenson was out or limited, Henderson averaged 19.6 touches, 103 yards, and 1.25 touchdowns, which is strong RB1 territory. He’s being drafted as a low-end RB2, and that perceived value hinges on Stevenson’s fragility or the potential of Henderson usurping Stevenson’s role. Henderson’s 94th-percentile YBC/Att suggests he's quick to find the ample running lanes opened by New England’s excellent offensive line, and his overall profile–55th-percentile run grade, 65th-percentile elusive rating, 58th-percentile success rate–is consistently above average without a standout metric. New England again invested in the offensive line this offseason and added first-round tackle Caleb Lomu, so the line should continue to be a strength. Given Stevenson's injury history–he's missed 10 games in the last three seasons–Henderson carries real upside. The downside is that Henderson could continue to see 10 touches per game as part of a committee.

Hampton's rookie season was cut short at nine games, leaving a limited but promising sample. He finished RB32 overall at 13.3 points per game (RB16 per-game production), and the efficiency profile holds up well under the circumstances–his run grade ranked at the 86th percentile and his broken-tackle rate at the 94th, fourth-highest among qualified backs. His YAC/Att (22nd percentile) is the one concern, though 124 rookie carries is a small sample. The receiving role was functional without being a focal point, and his 71st-percentile route grade suggests the foundation is there. The bigger news for 2026 is Joe Alt's return. Alt missed virtually all of last season with injury, and getting an elite tackle back into the lineup should meaningfully improve Hampton's blocking environment. Keaton Mitchell adds depth but isn't a threat to the workload. Hampton enters the season as the clear starter with an offense and line that should be better than what he had last year.

Mason's advanced stats don’t match his fantasy results. In 2025 he posted a 78th-percentile run grade, 83rd-percentile success rate, and 86th-percentile YAC/Att–legitimate numbers for a quality early-down back. The problem is everything around it. His receiving profile is essentially nonexistent, with a 3rd-percentile YPRR and 6th-percentile route grade, which limits his role in any modern offense, especially with Aaron Jones still in the mix. Sharing a backfield with Jones in Minnesota meant the volume was split further; neither back has a clear path to a workhorse workload. Mason is a good runner stuck in a timeshare because he’s not an adept receiver. He's worth monitoring pending Jones’s durability.

Gainwell's RB21 finish in 2025 at Pittsburgh was a surprise, but the receiving volume that drove it was real–81 targets, 73 catches, 486 yards, and three scores, with a 92nd-percentile target share, 86th-percentile YPRR, and 81st-percentile route grade. He's primarily a pass-catching back, and that profile fits the Rachaad White role he's stepping into in Tampa. The rushing efficiency has some interesting markers too: his broken-tackle rate ranked at the 95th percentile (3rd in the NFL) on 114 carries, though his run grade (51st percentile) and elusive rating (54th percentile) were average. At 4.7 YPC, he’s not just a pass-catcher. However, the situation at Tampa is complicated. Irving is the likely lead back when healthy but he’s recovering from shoulder surgery. Sean Tucker handles goal-line work. Gainwell fits as the committee's passing-down piece, but in a three-way split where none of the backs has a clean role, consistent production is hard to project. Tampa has 132 vacated carries entering 2026, so there's volume available–it's just spread across enough bodies to limit any one back's ceiling, and Gainwell is unlikely to see 80+ targets again.

Jeanty finished RB14 as a rookie, which looks more impressive given what he was working against–his 6th-percentile YBC/Att reflects an offensive line that gave him almost nothing before contact. He kept himself afloat through elusiveness (86th-percentile elusive rating) and a strong broken-tackle rate (82nd percentile). The 2026 picture is more encouraging. Las Vegas was the NFL's biggest offensive line net spender this offseason (+$28.3M), headlined by the signing of center Tyler Linderbaum from Baltimore–a 92nd-percentile run blocker who is a direct upgrade for Jeanty. If that pre-contact runway opens up even modestly, a back with his rushing ability could take a real step forward.

Judkins' rookie season looks worse on the surface than it actually was. His YBC/Att ranked at the 3rd percentile–the line gave him almost no room before contact–and yet he still posted a 72nd-percentile YAC/Att, generating something on runs that were otherwise dead on arrival. Cleveland's offensive line was one of the worst in the league, and the run grade (11th percentile) reflects that as much as anything that Judkins did with the ball. The offseason changes are substantial. Cleveland ranked second in net OL spending, adding Elgton Jenkins and Zion Johnson in free agency and drafting Spencer Fano (92nd/96th-percentile grades) in the first round and Austin Barber (top-rated run blocker in the college sample) in the third. If the line improves even modestly toward league average, the pre-contact numbers should look very different and Judkins’ production could seriously spike. He’s one of the more straightforward year-two breakout cases at the position, and he’s being drafted as a low-end RB2, right where he finished last year.

In 2024, Hubbard was the RB12, with 14.7 points per game, 1,366 yards and 11 touchdowns in 15 games. He was a legitimate featured back when healthy. The 2025 season is best set aside–the calf injury that stripped him of the starting job (lost to Rico Dowdle) produced efficiency numbers (2nd-percentile broken-tackle rate, 3rd-percentile elusive rating) that reflect a back who physically couldn't cut or absorb contact, and probably not a back who lost his ability to run the football. Carolina enters 2026 with 236 vacated RB carries, 60.4% of their total, with Dowdle now in Pittsburgh. The opportunity for Hubbard to reclaim a featured role is real. The question is Jonathon Brooks, who finally appears ready to play after back-to-back ACL tears in his right knee in 2023 and 2024. Brooks returning is legitimate competition, but two torn ACLs in consecutive seasons leaves durability as a genuine concern regardless of how he looks in camp. Carolina also invested in the offensive line, adding first-round tackle Monroe Freeling out of Georgia, which should help whichever back leads the committee. If Hubbard is healthy and Brooks is still finding his footing, there's a path back to RB2 production. He's worth drafting as a high-upside RB3 with a real shot at more, though Brooks’ progress this summer will determine Hubbard’s overall upside.

Walker produced a 97th-percentile run grade in 2025, second-best among qualified backs, so the talent is real. The problem in Seattle was opportunity–221 carries, five touchdowns, while sharing the backfield with Zach Charbonnet. Kansas City represents a significant change in scenery: the Chiefs enter 2026 with 288 vacated RB carries, the most of any team in the NFL, clearing the runway for a genuine workhorse role. The concern is the blocking environment. KC's run-block win rate fell from 7th to 25th last season, and the team was a net loser in offensive line spending this offseason with no early-round picks. Creed Humphrey remains an elite center, but run blocking was a weakness last year and it really didn't get addressed. Walker's elite elusiveness (89th-percentile elusive rating, 88th-percentile broken-tackle rate) gives him a chance to generate on his own, which is probably why the Chiefs went after him. A high-upside RB2 some environment risk.

Achane has finished RB7 and RB5 the last two seasons, and the efficiency profile backs it up–his run grade and YAC/Att both rank at the 98th percentile. He's a legitimate difference-maker with the ball in his hands. The 2026 context is a tougher call, since there’s been a coaching and quarterback change in Miami. Malik Willis's mobility should help Achane on the ground–a running QB stresses defenses horizontally and tends to create opportunities for the running back. The passing game is a different story. Running QBs historically dump off to backs less than pocket passers do, which puts Achane's large receiving role at risk. He was a 94th-percentile target back in 2025; that number could come down. Miami's WR room turned over significantly–240 vacated targets–so there's opportunity there, but whether a new coaching staff funnels any of it to Achane is an open question. On a team that figures to be bad and trailing frequently, game script adds another layer of uncertainty. The talent is easy to trust. The situation isn't.

White fell from RB20 in 2024 to RB34 in 2025 as Bucky Irving's emergence in Tampa cut into his workload, but the efficiency profile he produced on limited carries was genuinely interesting. His run grade ranked at the 92nd percentile–5th in the NFL–and his YBC/Att at the 83rd. The catch is his YAC/Att ranked at the 8th percentile, meaning once contact arrives he doesn't do much with it. The receiving role was present in volume (75th-percentile target share) but below-average in efficiency (21st-percentile YPRR). He's joining Washington as the replacement for Chris Rodriguez. The Commanders also added Jerome Ford, Jeremy McNichols is still around, and they added Kaytron Allen in the draft.

Skattebo's rookie season was cut short by a dislocated ankle in Week 8, which is the only reason a back who averaged 19.5 touches, 97 rushing yards, and a touchdown per game from Weeks 2 through 7 isn't a consensus RB1 conversation. He's targeting a return during camp with the expectation of being ready for Week 1, and the Giants appear to share that confidence–they didn't add a running back in free agency or the draft, leaving Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary as the backups behind him. The efficiency data comes with a sample size caveat at 101 carries, but nothing in it raises flags, and it’s actually encouraging. His run grade (72nd percentile) and elusive rating (72nd percentile) are above average, and his broken-tackle rate sits at the 65th percentile. The more impressive numbers are in the receiving game, where his YPRR ranked at the 88th percentile and his route grade at the 90th. He's a legitimate three-down back, not just a runner. New York also used the 10th overall pick on guard Francis Mauigoa, a meaningful OL investment that should help Skattebo’s pre-contact numbers, which were below average in 2025 (35th-percentile YBC/Att).

Wilson has spent two seasons as Josh Jacobs' backup in Green Bay, finishing RB50 both years with minimal volume. The question of how good he actually is has a complicated answer. His 95th-percentile success rate is the most striking number in his profile–third-best among qualified backs behind a Green Bay offensive that struggled to open holes. Most of the rest of his rushing profile is average to below average: 48th-percentile run grade, 40th-percentile elusive rating, 14th-percentile YBC/Att, underscoring the Packers’ run-blocking struggles. His YAC/Att ranks at the 75th percentile, which is legit. He’s not much of a receiver, though he did have a couple of three-catch games last season. The situation in Seattle is what makes him intriguing. After losing Kenneth Walker III, the Seahawks enter 2026 with 226 vacated carries, 52.9% of their total–the largest vacancy in the league. Zach Charbonnet tore his ACL in February and is likely out for at least the first half of the season, leaving Wilson as a potential starter by default. Jadarian Price was drafted in the first round and could be a factor quickly, but as a rookie it’s not certain he’ll be ready to start Week 1. George Holani is also in the mix, but he has a 3.3 career YPC on just 25 carries. In eight games where Wilson saw 10+ carries in Green Bay, he averaged 74 total yards and 0.76 touchdowns on 16.3 touches per game, or solid RB2 numbers. Wilson is a functional running back in a role that most functional running backs would thrive in. The success rate, YAC/att, and the feature back splits are encouraging. If Price falters, Wilson could be a surprise fantasy starter.

Corum's 2025 splits tell the familiar backup story: mostly irrelevant through 12 weeks, then double-digit fantasy points in four of five games when Kyren Williams was limited down the stretch. When the Rams' scheme gives him carries, the efficiency numbers look remarkable–his success rate (97th percentile) and YBC/Att (97th percentile) both rank second in the NFL, and his run grade sits at the 89th percentile. The catch, as with Williams, is that the scheme is doing most of the work. Corum's elusive rating (15th percentile) and YAC/Att (17th percentile) are well below average, and his receiving profile is essentially nonexistent–he ranked dead last among qualified backs in both YPRR and route grade.

Tuten is the incumbent piece in a Jacksonville backfield that lost Travis Etienne this offseason, leaving 260 vacated carries in his wake–72% of the team's total, the largest percentage of any team in the league. While Etienne had more carries (12) inside the opponent’s five-yard line, he only scored two touchdowns while Tuten converted seven carries into five scores. Tuten’s athletic tools are real: his 4.32 speed and burst give him legitimate big-play upside that shows up in his 75th-percentile elusive rating and 92nd-percentile success rate. The run grade (8th percentile) is harder to dismiss, though the Jacksonville line gave him almost nothing pre-contact (11th-percentile YBC/Att), which clouds the picture. The addition of guard Emmanuel Pregnon (99th-percentile run blocker) in the third round should create more holes. Chris Rodriguez is now in the mix, making this a genuine committee rather than a featured-back situation. Tuten’s receiving role was minimal last year, but there could be significant growth in that area with Etienne out of the way and Rodriguez’s limited pass-catching ability. We’re likely to see a Tuten/Rodriguez committee but Tuten should see the goal-line work and more receiving work, and that’s key for his fantasy value.

Price comes in as a first-round pick with the requisite size at 5'11", 203 lbs, but the scouting file is pretty thin. Playing behind Jeremiyah Love at Notre Dame, he logged just 113 carries, making this more of a traits projection than a proven production profile. His efficiency was encouraging–a 90th-percentile elusive rating (118.6), an 84th-percentile YAC/Att (3.92), and 6.0 yards per carry. Eleven touchdowns on 119 total touches is a strong scoring rate for any back, let alone one working in a complementary role. The receiving game is the central question. He had virtually no receiving work at Notre Dame, though he did catch 55 passes across his final two high school seasons, which at least suggests the hands are there. Whether an NFL coaching staff trusts him on third downs early in his career is a different matter. The situation could put him on the field immediately. With Kenneth Walker III in Kansas City, Zach Charbonnet rehabbing a torn ACL, and Emanuel Wilson best suited as a complement, Price’s draft capital says that he should be the RB1 in Seattle from Week 1. The ceiling in PPR formats depends heavily on how the passing-down role develops–if it doesn't, Wilson or an eventual Charbonnet return could absorb the snaps that matter most for fantasy. He's an RB2/RB3 in redraft with a wide range of outcomes.

Pierce's breakout in 2025 deserves more attention than it got–1,003 yards in 14 games, WR34. The profile is unusual. His ESPN OPEN score is the 4th percentile, meaning almost no one in the 110-receiver sample got open less consistently, yet his PFF route grade (87th percentile) and YPRR (88th percentile) are both very good. The explanation is the extreme vertical route tree: Pierce's 20.0 average depth of target was among the highest in the league. He runs go routes and deep posts, creates the separation on his terms, and his 84th-percentile drop rate says he catches what comes his way. He doesn't manufacture yards after the catch (57th percentile) or thrive in contested situations (41st percentile). The Colts have 108 vacated WR targets entering 2026 with Michael Pittman gone, giving Pierce a path to legit WR1 usage as the team's deep threat. Daniel Jones recovering from his Achilles tear is the schematic question–how much can a returning Jones push the ball downfield to support a 20.0 aDOT receiver. At WR34 ADP, managers are betting that Pierce can repeat his 2025 breakout.

Watson's efficiency numbers when healthy are among the most impressive at the position. In 10 games last season after returning from injury, he caught 35 of 55 targets for 611 yards and six touchdowns, with a PFF route grade (96th percentile) and YPRR (2.51, 96th percentile) that both ranked at the very top of the wide receiver sample. Over 10 games last year, his production extrapolated to a 1,039-yard, 10.2-touchdown pace for a full season. In his 23 career games where he's played at least 70 percent of the snaps, he has averaged 3.6 catches, 63 yards, and 0.70 touchdowns on 6.1 targets per game, or 12.2 fantasy points, solidly WR1-adjacent. The snap share is the key. Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks are both gone, and Watson should command 75 to 80 percent of the snaps as the clear WR1 in Green Bay entering 2026. Jordan Love's 100th-percentile CPOE means the ball will be placed accurately when Watson works downfield, and the Packers' receiving corps–Jayden Reed, Matthew Golden, Savion Williams, and Tucker Kraft returning from his ACL–gives Love enough weapons to keep defenses from doubling Watson. He's going as the WR29 and that's a significant discount for a player with top-15 upside if the snap share materializes as expected.

Jefferson proved last year that he's not entirely quarterback-proof. After a WR2 finish at 16.2 points per game in 2024, he crashed to WR28 overall and WR38 per game with J.J. McCarthy at quarterback–grinding out 1,048 yards but scoring just two touchdowns in 17 games. The underlying metrics weren't the problem: his 85th-percentile route grade, 80th-percentile YPRR, and 84th-percentile YAC per reception all suggest the talent is intact, and his 69th-percentile ESPN OPEN score reflects a legitimate separator. The issue was a Minnesota offense that couldn't consistently put him in the end zone. Two touchdowns on 140 targets is brutal luck, bad scheme, or bad quarterback–probably a combination of all three. Kyler Murray is a meaningful step up. He's not elite–his 2025 EPA and CPOE were both in the middle of the pack–but he brings improvisation, mobility, and a demonstrated ability to find receivers on broken plays that McCarthy never could. Murray also arrives with a full cast: Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings as complementary weapons, T.J. Hockenson at tight end, Aaron Jones in the backfield. Jefferson is going as the WR6, and the bet is that moving from one of the worst quarterbacks in the league to a serviceable one is enough to restore the red zone production that turned 2025 into a disaster. With Jefferson's tools and Murray's resourcefulness, a top-ten finish is a reasonable base case and a top-5 finish is within reach.

Collins presents one of the most counterintuitive statistical profiles at the position. His ESPN OPEN score is 9th percentile yet his PFF route grade is 94th percentile and his YPRR is 93rd percentile. He's a 6'4" boundary receiver who wins through size, physicality, and positioning rather than through obvious separation, and his 80th-percentile contested catch rate confirms that conclusion. Defenders don't leave him open; he catches the ball anyway, and hi 86th-percentile drop rate shows he makes the most of it when the ball arrives. He's put up 14.9 and 12.7 points per game over the last two seasons and finished WR7 and WR10 per game, respectively. At the WR11, he's priced fairly for a player who has delivered back-to-back top-ten per-game seasons.

McLaurin's 2025 was largely wiped out by injury–nine games, a WR56 finish overall–but the per-game numbers (WR34 at 9.7 ppg) and the limited underlying metrics tell you the player is still very much there. His PFF route grade (94th percentile) and YPRR (90th percentile) were both elite in 10 games, and his 84th-percentile ESPN CATCH score confirms he converts his opportunities cleanly when healthy. The YAC numbers (10th-percentile ESPN, 20th-percentile PFF) show the same limitation as always–he doesn't create after the catch, making him dependent on volume and touchdowns. In the 17 games where Jayden Daniels has played at least 85 percent of the snaps, McLaurin has averaged 4.4 catches, 60 yards, and 0.71 touchdowns per game, or 12.3 fantasy points, low-end WR1 numbers. Washington's vacated target pool is enormous–222 total targets representing 52.4% of the team's volume. With Daniels healthy and that target share redistributing, McLaurin should be the primary beneficiary. He's going as the WR25, and if both McLaurin and Daniels stay healthy, McLaurin should be able to beat that.

Fantasy managers forget just how good Waddle was at his peak. He posted three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to open his career before Tyreek Hill's arrival permanently scrambled the Dolphins' target distribution. With Hill dominating the offense, Waddle became a secondary option in the worst possible way. He was still running the same routes, still winning, but not getting the ball as much as he deserved. His 2024 was miserable (WR49 overall, nine games under seven points) and his 2025 in Miami wasn't much better on a per-game basis (WR28 at 10.1 per game), but the 92nd-percentile PFF route grade and 89th-percentile YPRR–both among the best in the league–indicates that the talent hasn't eroded. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception has called Waddle "an obvious good receiver" and believes his "production could shoot through the roof" as the WR1 in Denver, and the case isn't hard to make. In 29 career games without Hill, Waddle has averaged 5.5 catches, 65 yards, and 0.38 touchdowns on 7.9 targets per game, or 11.8 fantasy points per game, numbers that sit firmly in WR1 territory. Denver gives him the best opportunity of his post-Hill career. He arrives as the clear WR1 in an offense that Bo Nix ran as the overall QB8 last season. Nix isn't elite–58th percentile in EPA per dropback, 36th percentile in CPOE–but he's functional, accurate enough to hit the short-to-intermediate routes that make Waddle dangerous. Courtland Sutton is over 30 and aging out of his prime. Troy Franklin is a legitimate second weapon but hasn't yet pushed into lead-dog territory. Evan Engram at tight end and a capable backfield of RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins round out an offense with enough complementary pieces to keep defenses from keying on Waddle. He turns 28 in November–still squarely in his prime–and the arrow is pointing up after three years of artificially suppressed production. He's going as the WR24, and for a player with a legitimate top-12 ceiling in his first season as an unambiguous WR1, that's a price worth paying.

In the 17 games Higgins has played alongside both Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase over the last two seasons, he has averaged 5.6 catches for 72 yards and 0.82 touchdowns on 8.3 targets per game, or 14.8 fantasy points per game, low-end WR1 scoring. The full-season numbers obscure that because he's played 12 and 15 games in each of the last two years while Burrow has been similarly fragile, and the games without Burrow naturally drag the averages down. Strip those out and you're looking at a perennial top-15 receiver in a great offense. The PFF profile fits a specific archetype. He's a pure X receiver with a 5th percentile slot rate and a 13.9 average depth of target, so he lines up wide and wins downfield. His route grade (85th percentile) is legitimately strong, and the 69th-percentile drop rate reflects solid hands for a deep threat. What pushes the production is the touchdowns. He scored 21 times in 27 games in the last two seasons. That kind of touchdown rate is both real and somewhat fragile—the Bengals will move the ball through Burrow, Chase, and the supporting cast, and Higgins is the red zone finisher who cashes in when the opportunities come. He's going as the WR16, and the bet is simple: if Burrow, Chase, and Higgins are all healthy for 14-plus games, this is a top-15 or maybe even a top-10 wide receiver.

Sutton has become one of the more reliable volume producers at the position–back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, back-to-back full 17-game campaigns, back-to-back finishes between WR9 and WR15. The consistency is real, even if the per-game averages (WR17 and WR28) reveal that he's compiling value through availability and touchdowns rather than dominance. His 84th-percentile ESPN CATCH score and the 69th-percentile contested catch rate speaks to his value as a ball-winner. The 29th-percentile YAC per reception and 35th-percentile ESPN YAC are consistent: Sutton is a boundary route-runner who wins at the point of the catch (13.3 aDOT, 13th-percentile slot rate) and doesn't create much after contact. He needs the volume and touchdowns to hold for the production to stay at WR2 levels. The complication for 2026 is Jaylen Waddle. Denver has zero vacated targets–the offense returns intact–which means Waddle's arrival compresses the existing target share rather than filling an existing hole. Sutton commanded 138 targets in 2025. How many of those shift to Waddle, who is a better route-runner, will determine whether Sutton finishes as a fantasy starter. Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims continue to develop secondary options and could push for larger roles as well. Sutton is turning 31 in October, which is not ancient but is the beginning of the zone where boundary receivers with limited YAC creation start to slow down. At WR39 with a late-round ADP, there's nothing wrong with the price for two straight 1,000-yard seasons, but 2026 will be a real test of that consistent production.

Chase was the overall WR1 in 2024 at nearly 20 points per game. In 2025, with Burrow missing significant time, he finished WR5 overall and WR4 per game, which is still elite. The underlying metrics remain at the top of the position: 98th-percentile route grade, 91st-percentile YPRR, and a 94th-percentile ESPN YAC score that reflects his elite run-after-catch ability, which shows up in his 84th-percentile PFF YAC per reception as well. He's going as the WR1 overall, and the entire bet is Joe Burrow's health–Chase with a functional Burrow is the best receiver in fantasy football.

McMillan delivered a quietly impressive rookie campaign–1,014 yards and seven touchdowns in 17 games while playing in a developing offense with Bryce Young still finding his footing in Year 3. His 81st-percentile route grade and 77th-percentile YPRR are strong numbers for a first-year receiver. His 41st-percentile OPEN score is modest, but he plays almost exclusively from the boundary (17th-percentile slot rate) and still generated consistent production. The Panthers' vacated WR targets are relatively modest–23 WR targets at 8.1%--so the opportunity story here is more about continued role growth than absorbing someone else's volume. He's going as the WR14, which seems fair for a player who delivered a WR2 finish in his rookie year and should improve with a full offseason. On average, 23-year old second-year receivers generated roughly 15-16% more fantasy points than they did as rookies; if McMillan follows suit, he’s looking at a midrange WR1 finish.

Moore has spent two seasons as the bridge option in a developing Bears offense—WR21 in 2024, WR30 in 2025—putting up passable but uninspiring numbers with Caleb Williams developing around him. The PFF metrics reflect a mid-tier receiver: 44th-percentile route grade, 41st percentile-YPRR. The standout is his 84th-percentile contested catch rate, which makes more sense in Buffalo than it did in Chicago. The Bills vacated 56 targets from last season, so Moore will have to carve out whatever role he can with Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, and Joshua Palmer all returning. The opportunity isn't overwhelming, but the quarterback upgrade from Williams to Allen is significant enough on its own to make Moore an intriguing real-world WR1 available in the middle rounds. If Allen pushes the ball to him early and often in the way he did with Stefon Diggs, Moore's contested catch ability could produce a top-20 finish.

After a reportedly great training camp, Golden's rookie year was forgettable–4.2 points per game in 13 games, 29 receptions, and zero touchdowns. The underlying metrics are average across the board: 52nd-percentile route grade, 47th-percentile YPRR, 55th-percentile ESPN OVERALL score. The one standout is an 83rd-percentile contested catch rate, suggesting he can win in traffic even if he can’t separate consistently. The reason to pay attention in Year 2 is mostly situational. Green Bay has 135 vacated WR targets representing 50.9% of WR volume–the same enormous vacancy that makes Christian Watson and Jayden Reed so compelling. With Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks both gone, the Green Bay WR room has real openings behind Watson and Reed, and Golden is the most likely candidate to step into a top-three role in Matt LaFleur’s offense. The moderate rookie metrics mean this is mostly an opportunity play rather than a talent endorsement, but with a high-end WR5 ADP, the draft capital is low enough that even a partial breakout might make him fantasy-relevant.

London's profile creates a genuine tension between the eye test and the numbers. His ESPN OPEN score (31st percentile) and OVERALL (33rd percentile) suggest he rarely beats coverage cleanly–and yet his PFF route grade is 97th percentile and his YPRR is 92nd percentile, both among the best in the league. In 11 games last season he averaged 13.8 points per game–WR7 on a per-game basis–with 68 receptions for 919 yards and seven touchdowns. His 27th-percentile avoided tackle rate tells you he's not elite at extending plays after the catch, which further concentrates his value in volume and red zone usage. He's going as the WR8 in an offense that also features Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts, and the upside is a top-5 finish.

The advanced stats from Egbuka's rookie season are all over the place. His ESPN OPEN score (6th percentile) and CATCH score (4th percentile) were both near the bottom of the 110-receiver sample, so he struggled to create separation and dropped the ball at a high rate (11.3%, 18th percentile). And yet he finished WR17 overall with 938 yards and six touchdowns. The explanation stems from his 85th-percentile ESPN YAC score and 84th-percentile PFF YAC per reception. When he did get the ball, he created after the catch at an elite level. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception called Egbuka “an obviously good player” but noted that his production cooled after a red-hot start to his rookie season. The opportunity heading into Year 2 is there. Tampa Bay has 116 vacated WR targets (32.2%) with Mike Evans gone, including eight vacated inside-the-10 targets (33.3% of team red zone looks). Baker Mayfield will keep the offense moving, while Chris Godwin's return and Jalen McMillan's emergence add complementary pieces, though I wouldn’t be shocked if Godwin had the best fantasy season of the three.

Consistency is St. Brown's defining trait. He's finished WR3 overall in back-to-back seasons–15.4 and 15.5 points per game–without a single significant injury. He does it with a 99th-percentile ESPN OPEN score and a 98th-percentile PFF route grade, getting open against coverage as cleanly as anyone in football. The 95th-percentile YPRR backs up the separation, and 11 touchdowns last season in an offense that doesn't lack for weapons (Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams) shows just how embedded he is in Detroit's red zone plan. Going as the WR4 with a late-first/early-second ADP, he's priced fairly for a player who should be drafted with confidence that he’ll deliver WR1 production.

Pittman's 2025 in Indianapolis was quietly productive–WR21 overall, 10.0 points per game in 17 games, with seven touchdowns despite being almost exclusively a short-route receiver (8.4 aDOT). His ESPN CATCH score (65th percentile), drop rate (53rd percentile), route grade (63rd percentile), and YPRR (56th percentile) are solid if unspectacular, and he doesn't create much after the catch (35th-percentile YAC). He's a functional volume-and-touchdowns receiver who shows up every week. Pittsburgh has an enormous 102 vacated WR targets (44.3% of WR volume) with 16 vacated inside-the-10 looks (45.7%), which is the obvious appeal. But the competition for that target share is real: DK Metcalf and rookie Germie Bernard are in the room, Aaron Rodgers will push the ball downfield, and Mike McCarthy's offense in Dallas ran a short-to-intermediate scheme that Pittman should fit perfectly. His profile is built for a West Coast-adjacent system, not a deep-ball quarterback. The math still works if he absorbs 110-plus targets in Pittsburgh's offense.

The injuries have been brutal, but the talent remains elite when Godwin is on the field. Before a dislocated ankle ended his 2024 season in Week 7, he was averaging 16.1 fantasy points per game, which was THE overall WR4 pace, with 82 yards per game and three games over 20 points in seven appearances. The dislocated ankle recovery bled into 2025, where a fibula injury limited him to six games and just 40 yards per game. The yards after the catch ability remains–a 98th-percentile ESPN YAC score and 98th-percentile PFF avoided tackle rate from a player still operating at less than full health–reduces the concern about Godwin’s age. The situation heading into 2026 is significantly better. Mike Evans is gone, opening 116 vacated WR targets (32.2% of WR volume) and eight vacated red zone looks (33.3%). OC Zac Robinson has said the team has "huge expectations" for Godwin in the slot, which is exactly where he belongs. Hat-tip to Adam Pfeifer: in 16 games since 2024, Godwin has averaged 2.10 YPRR and 33% target rate per route from the slot versus 1.49 YPRR and 21% elsewhere; the production differential is stark and Robinson clearly knows it. He's going as a midrange WR4, which significantly undervalues what a healthy Godwin can do in a featured role: the per-game history, the slot production data, and the Evans-sized vacancy all point toward a rock-solid WR3 floor with legitimate WR2 upside if he stays upright.

Higgins' rookie season was relatively efficient–41 receptions for 525 yards and six touchdowns in a limited role alongside Nico Collins in 17 games. The six touchdowns on 67 targets (a 9.0% TD rate) are impressive. His hands are good: an 82nd-percentile ESPN CATCH score and 82nd-percentile drop rate confirm he's reliable when the ball arrives. The 60th-percentile OPEN score and 64th-percentile route grade aren’t bad for a rookie. Higgins’ production picked up in the second half of the season. He played at a 49-624-7.7, WR5 pace from Week 8 on. Houston has 55 vacated WR targets (15.9% of WR volume), and the Tank Dell potential return cuts both ways–if Dell returns healthy and commands his usual 80-plus target share, Higgins operates as a complementary WR2/WR3 and the ceiling stays capped. If Dell's health is again an issue, Higgins could inherit significantly more volume alongside Collins.

Addison's 2024 was a legitimate breakout. He finished WR17 overall, 12.9 points per game over 14 games, finishing inside the top 20 for the second time in his career. Then 2025 happened. He regressed to WR43 and 8.7 points per game in 13 games with J.J. McCarthy at quarterback, and the underlying metrics explain why: a 14.3% drop rate (10th percentile), an 8th-percentile ESPN CATCH score, and a 30th-percentile route grade paint the picture of a receiver who struggled to hold onto the football and win against coverage. Kyler Murray represents a genuine upgrade at quarterback since his improvisation and mobility should create more opportunities underneath and on broken plays that a receiver with Addison's field-stretching tendencies (14.5 aDOT) can exploit. The 50 vacated WR targets in Minnesota (17.4% of WR volume) add some incremental opportunity, though the wrinkle is Jauan Jennings' arrival. He’s a reliable underneath option who could absorb some of the intermediate volume that Addison might otherwise see. The question heading into 2026 is which version shows up: the WR17 from 2024 or the drop-prone WR43 from 2025. He’s being drafted as a high-end WR4, so the market seems to be betting more on the latter.

Flowers is one of the most complete receivers in the league by the metrics and one of the more underrated by the overall rankings. His ESPN OVERALL score (96th percentile) and OPEN score (94th percentile) are both elite, as is his 97th-percentile YPRR. The 86th-percentile YAC per reception and 84th-percentile avoided tackle rate confirm what the eye test says: he's a dynamic playmaker who creates after the catch at an elite level. The production has been real–1,211 yards last season–but only five touchdowns dragged his overall finish to WR12. With Mark Andrews absorbing red zone targets at tight end and Derrick Henry handling goal-line carries, Flowers may perpetually be the best player on the Ravens who doesn't score enough. Baltimore's 43 vacated WR targets (21.1% of receiver targets) from departed players adds some incremental opportunity. He's going as the WR18, and the ceiling depends heavily on whether the touchdowns regress positively from five.

Nacua led all receivers in ESPN OVERALL score (100th percentile) and was 99th in OPEN, and his PFF route grade (100th percentile) and YPRR (3.71, 100th percentile) were both the best in the entire sample. He backed it up: 129 receptions, 1,715 yards, 10 touchdowns, and a WR1 overall finish at 19.3 points per game in 2025. He also had a 91st-percentile contested catch rate and 86th-percentile YAC per reception, making him effective at every phase of the route. The only flag on his profile is the durability history–he played 11 games in 2024 before returning for a full 2025–and Matthew Stafford's age. Both are real risks, but Stafford was elite last season (91st-percentile EPA) and Nacua's separation ability means he doesn't require elite quarterback play to produce. He's going as the overall WR2, and the metrics make it very difficult to argue with.

Wilson's 2025 season produced one of the most extreme situational splits in the league, and it tells you nearly everything you need to know about drafting him. In the seven games from Week 6 onward where Jacoby Brissett started and Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. shared the field, Wilson averaged 3.4 catches, 51 yards, and 0.29 touchdowns on 5.7 targets, or 8.5 points per game, a low-end WR4. In the five games where Harrison was out of the lineup, Wilson averaged 9.2 catches, 120 yards, and 0.80 touchdowns on 13.6 targets, mind-boggling production that would rank as THE WR1 over a full season. His underlying metrics support the burst: a 90th-percentile ESPN CATCH score and 88th-percentile contested catch rate make him one of the best ball-winners in the league, and the 77th-percentile PFF route grade says the technical foundation is real. The calculation at his WR4-type ADP is straightforward: he's a boom-or-bust bet on how much the Harrison-Wilson dynamic plays out in his favor. If Brissett doesn't return and Arizona installs a new quarterback who distributes targets differently, or if Harrison misses time again, Wilson's ceiling is legitimately top-15. Draft him knowing the floor is a frustrating WR4 and the ceiling is a potential league-winner.

Washington's involvement after the Travis Hunter injury is the best argument for drafting him: 4.6 catches, 71 yards, and 0.44 touchdowns per game on 6.7 targets across Weeks 9 to 18, translating to 12.0 fantasy points per game in a significant role. He finished with 58-847-5 on 95 targets in 16 games. The underlying metrics back the potential. His PFF route grade (90th percentile) and YPRR (87th percentile) are among the stronger profiles in the sample, and his 86th-percentile contested catch rate and 85th-percentile avoided tackle rate confirm he can win at the point of attack and create after contact. The ESPN YAC score (85th percentile) and 65th-percentile OVERALL show a receiver who makes plays when given the opportunity. The 12.0 PPG sample wasn't a fluke against soft competition: it was a productive 23-year-old receiver finally given a starting role in an offense with a capable quarterback.

Robinson's 2025 was easily his best as a pro–WR13 overall with 92 receptions, 1,014 yards, and four touchdowns in 16 games. His 80th-percentile YPRR and 92nd-percentile slot rate confirm a genuine role. The underlying profile is more nuanced. His 76th-percentile ESPN OPEN score says he wins against coverage, and the 61st-percentile PFF YAC says he does a decent job of creating after the catch. He runs short (9.0 aDOT) and avoids contact well enough to move the chains, but this is not a receiver who generates big plays. In Tennessee, Robinson fits into the slot alongside Carnell Tate–the rookie WR1 running downfield patterns–giving Cam Ward a legitimate short-intermediate option underneath. The Titans have 60 vacated WR targets (20.3% of WR volume). The air yards won't be Wan'Dale's, but the underneath targets are right in his range. As a high-end WR5, he's a late-round depth piece with WR3 upside in weeks where Ward finds him early and often. The situation is workable; whether Robinson can replicate his 2025 production with a new quarterback remains to be seen.

There are times that the talent is elite and the ADP is still a problem. Nabers is one of the best young receivers in football–his combined 2024 season and three healthy games in 2025 average out to 14.7 points per game over 17 games, a genuine WR1 number that would have made him 2025’s WR6 on a per-game basis. His 92nd-percentile ESPN OPEN score reflects one of the best separation profiles at the position, and his 85th-percentile YPRR confirms that per-route production over a small but meaningful sample. The health situation is the entire conversation. Nabers underwent surgery for a torn ACL and meniscus in October, then had a follow-up procedure in April to remove scar tissue–the team says the second procedure doesn't delay the recovery timeline, but it's now been eight months since the initial injury. The Giants are targeting Week 1, though head coach John Harbaugh acknowledged it isn't guaranteed and Nabers could begin the year on the PUP list, which would cost him the first four games at minimum. Even if he plays Week 1, ACL recovery doesn't end at clearance–the ramp-up period introduces real risk of reduced production, potential setbacks, and the psychological adjustment of returning to game speed after a serious knee injury. He's going as the WR9 overall, which is a steep draft capital to use on a player who could miss the start of the season and faces legitimate uncertainty for weeks after returning. The floor of this pick is a frustrating, injury-managed half-season. The talent is real; the risk is terrifying.

Worthy's Year 2 was disappointing. He finished WR55 overall at 6.4 points per game in 14 games–one touchdown, seven games under seven points, and not a single game over 15. His ESPN scores tell a stark story: 17th-percentile OPEN, 11th-percentile CATCH, 8th-percentile YAC, and a 6th-percentile OVERALL that puts him near the bottom of the 110-receiver sample despite playing with Patrick Mahomes. The per-route efficiency was equally underwhelming–46th-percentile route grade, 43rd-percentile YPRR. When he does get the ball, there's some juice there (86th-percentile avoided tackle rate), but he's not generating enough opportunities to make it matter for fantasy. His upside is almost entirely tied to Rashee Rice's availability, and the data says even that needle doesn't move much. Worthy averaged 5.0 targets per game with Rice in the lineup and 5.8 without. Kansas City has 114 vacated WR targets (36.3% of WR volume), so there is a chance that Worthy’s role will grow organically. The Rice situation adds real uncertainty: Rice recently had knee cleanup surgery and is serving a 30-day sentence for a parole violation stemming from his 2024 legal case–release date reportedly June 16. Whether the NFL levies an additional suspension is unclear and adds another layer of unpredictability. If Rice misses meaningful time, Worthy's volume could tick up further than the historical split suggests.

Williams is a slot receiver in its most refined form. He ran 93% of his routes from the slot at Clemson and the efficiency in that role was real: a 90th-percentile PFF receiving grade, 81st-percentile yards per route run (2.27), and an 11th-percentile aDOT (7.7) that tells you exactly what he is and isn't. He wins underneath, catches everything–76.4% catch rate, one drop on the season–and moves the chains. As Matt Harmon puts it, he's a "high-volume slot option you can set your watch by"–winning against man and zone, reliable across all levels, non-flashy but dependable. The Washington fit is legitimately interesting. As Littlefinger once observed, chaos is a ladder, and the Commanders' WR depth chart behind Terry McLaurin is deeply chaotic–Treylon Burks, Luke McCaffrey, Dyami Brown, Jaylin Lane, Van Jefferson. Williams' primary competition in the slot is former third-rounder McCaffrey and fourth-rounder Lane; anyone who wins that job inherits Deebo Samuel's vacated slot snaps in a Jayden Daniels offense that distributes heavily underneath. Daniels' accuracy and willingness to check down is a natural complement to Williams' short-area game. The ceiling is genuinely capped by the 7.7 aDOT profile–he needs 80-plus targets to matter in fantasy and won't produce many explosive plays–but in a PPR format with a fully healthy Daniels throwing him the ball, he could be a viable weekly WR3 if he plays starter’s snaps. Keep an eye on Washington’s camp competition in the slot.

The production metrics from Tyson’s limited college sample hold up under scrutiny: a 97th-percentile PFF receiving grade (85.3) and 84th-percentile yards per route run (2.37), and he drew 97 targets on 300 routes–a target-earning rate that should translate to the NFL. He lined up primarily outside (75% wide rate) but showed enough slot versatility (25%) to project as a movable piece at the next level. The contested catch rate (38th percentile) and YAC per reception (35th percentile) are the limitations–Tyson wins with route craft and target volume rather than physicality or creating YAC. As Matt Harmon of Reception Perception frames it, an Amari Cooper comparison comes to mind: a first-round talent who can be a quality complementary receiver and has a realistic path to "rounding into a steadier player with the right coaching.” Alongside Chris Olave, Tyson gives Tyler Shough a genuine 1-2 punch in Year 2 of the Kellen Moore offense. The eight receivers since 2010 that have been drafted in the 1.06-1.10 range and played 15+ games have averaged 78-988-6.0 on an average of 128 targets. He's going as the WR31, which despite those rookie averages, seems a little early given some of the other more-proven options still on the board at that point in fantasy drafts.

When Kittle is healthy, there's an argument he's the most complete tight end in the game. His ESPN OVERALL score (100th percentile) and PFF pass route grade (100th percentile) were both the best in the entire TE sample last season—and this was in only 10 games before a torn Achilles ended his year. In those 10 games, he averaged 12.8 points per game, TE2 on a per-game basis. In 2024, he was the overall TE1 at 13.9 per game over 14 games. His YPRR (2.15, 95th percentile) and his contested catch rate (84.6%, 92nd percentile) confirm that he's an elite route runner and a physical mismatch when the ball is in the air. The 49ers added Mike Evans and Christian Kirk to replace Jauan Jennings, and Brock Purdy's 98th percentile CPOE should give us plenty of confidence that Kittle will continue to receive quality targets. The torn Achilles recovery is the entire story. He could miss the start of the season, and the timeline matters enormously at his current TE10 ADP—a price that gives you significant upside if he plays 13-plus games and a frustrating experience if he misses the first month and/or the injury lingers deep into the season. Draft him knowing you'll need a streaming plan for the early weeks, and that you're paying a discounted price on one of the best players at the position when he's right. And he might be right by the fantasy playoffs.

Pitts finally delivered on a fraction of his draft pedigree in 2025, finishing as the overall TE2 with 88 receptions, 928 yards, and five touchdowns on 114 targets. The PFF metrics confirm the underlying talent is real: 86th-percentile route grade and 83rd-percentile YPRR among qualified tight ends. The ESPN receiver scores tell a more nuanced story—49th percentile in OPEN, 71st percentile OVERALL—suggesting that Pitts wins through size and athleticism rather than pure separation, which aligns with the trajectory of his career. The concern is the volatility that shadowed him even in a TE2 season: only six of 16 games went over 10 points, and five went under five. Both Bijan Robinson and Drake London will continue to act as a volume ceiling. In fact, Pitts’s scoring output doubled in the five games that London missed (7.4 vs. 15.5). Pitts is going as the TE7, which reflects the 2025 output without fully pricing in the inconsistency. He's a legitimate every-week starter who will frustrate you in the weeks when the touchdowns don't come.

Loveland's rookie season is a case study in talent that took a while to show up on the field. He finished TE14 overall and TE18 per game at 7.7 points per game, but his underlying metrics rank among the elite at the position. His PFF pass route grade (97th percentile) and YPRR (1.86, 92nd percentile) are both near the top of the tight end sample, and his ESPN OPEN score (68th percentile) suggests he’s able to shed coverage consistently. There’s a long list of tight ends who have broken out in their sophomore year, and the signs are there. From Week 9 on, he was the overall TE2 behind Trey McBride. He's currently going as the third tight end off the board, and the market is essentially pricing in a breakout that appears to have already begun.

Warren's rookie numbers present an interesting puzzle. He finished TE7 overall in his first NFL season but only TE11 on a per-game basis at 9.1 points per game, and his ESPN receiver scores were near the bottom of the tight end sample—9th percentile in OPEN score and 8th percentile OVERALL—suggesting he struggled to consistently create separation against NFL coverage. At the same time, his PFF metrics told a different story: 75th percentile in YPRR and an 88th percentile YAC per reception, indicating that when he did get the ball, he did real damage. The 68th percentile route grade for a rookie is respectable and suggests the foundation is there for improvement. He also runs a high percentage of routes from the slot (68th percentile), which helps. The disconnect between the ESPN and the PFF productivity metrics isn't unusual for a rookie TE learning to navigate NFL coverage—the YPRR and YAC numbers suggest the tools are real.

Goedert's TE3 finish in 2025 was built almost entirely on touchdowns—11 of them, tied with Trey McBride for the most at their position. He played the most games (15) since 2021, catching 60 passes for 591 yards on 78 targets, which is solid volume, but the underlying metrics are not those of a top-three tight end. His ESPN OPEN score (21st percentile) and OVERALL score (16th percentile) were near the bottom of the TE sample, while his PFF route grade (58th percentile) and YPRR (48th percentile) were better, but not elite by any means. The 11 scores were a career-high and one fewer than the previous four seasons combined. He's currently being drafted as a midrange TE2, which seems a little given how inevitable the A.J. Brown trade seems to be. Without Brown commanding targets, Goedert stands to inherit more usage, which would supplement a potential regression in touchdowns with more consistent yardage and make him a less volatile weekly option. As it stands, he's a touchdown-dependent TE2 with TE1 upside attached to a roster move that hasn't happened yet. If Brown is traded, then Goedert will be an intriguing value in the later rounds.

Okonkwo has spent three NFL seasons in Tennessee waiting for a quarterback to unlock his clear athletic profile, and now he gets one after a change of scenery. He arrives in Washington with Jayden Daniels under center and Zach Ertz out of the way, giving him the first realistic path to a TE1 season. The traits have always been there—a 92nd-percentile speed score plus a 93rd-percentile avoided tackle rate that puts him among the position's better YAC threats. His ESPN OPEN score (68th percentile) suggests he can create separation, and his contested catch rate (84th percentile) and YAC per reception (86th percentile) are both genuine strengths. The PFF route grade (50th percentile) and YPRR (46th percentile) are unspectacular, but they came in an offense that limited his role and was rarely throwing in advantageous situations. Daniels' efficiency and the upgraded receiving corps around him should create cleaner looks underneath that Okonkwo's athleticism can exploit. He's a late-round pick with a path to real fantasy relevance.

Freiermuth's 2025 was a disappointing step back. After a TE10 finish in 2024 at 7.3 points per game, he dropped to TE25 at 5.4 points per game despite playing all 16 games—41 receptions for 486 yards and four touchdowns on just 53 targets. The volume cratered, and the ESPN data tells you why: his OPEN score sits at the 4th percentile, meaning he was among the worst in the league at consistently creating separation. The PFF metrics are more forgiving—a 79th-percentile drop rate, 63rd-percentile YPRR, and a high 93rd-percentile slot rate that frames him in a reliable role. The 84th-percentile YAC per reception shows he can still do damage with the ball in his hands. The setup heading into 2026 is interesting. Jonnu Smith is out of the way, which clears the snap count, but Darnell Washington may emerge with the athletic profile to absorb a meaningful chunk of the secondary TE role. Mike McCarthy's offense should be slightly more pass-heavy than recent Pittsburgh attacks, and Aaron Rodgers provides plenty of experience at quarterback.

Likely spent last year as the clear second tight end in Baltimore behind Mark Andrews, and his 34 targets in 13 games reflects his role, not his ability. His ESPN OPEN score (68th percentile) and contested catch rate (79th percentile) both point to a functional receiver, and in 2024, when he had more opportunity in Baltimore, he finished TE16 overall at 6.5 points per game. Now he heads to New York to reunite with John Harbaugh as the projected TE1 in a Giants offense built around Jaxson Dart. Malik Nabers will command the lion's share of the attention, but the TE role in Dart's operation should generate consistent underneath looks. The competition with Theo Johnson is worth monitoring; Johnson finished TE15 overall in 2025 and is an athletic player in his own right, though his route grade (57th percentile) and YPRR (44th percentile) suggest he's not a polished route runner yet, and he’s struggled with drops in camp. One encouraging note: In the 19 career games where he’s played at least 40 snaps, he has averaged 3.5-42-0.53, or 9.1 fantasy points per game, which are low-end TE1 numbers. He's going around TE15, which is a fair-to-aggressive price for a player moving into his first true TE1 role with an ascending quarterback.

Kincaid's per-game profile in 2025 was legitimately elite. In 11 games, he averaged 9.1 points while posting a 100th-percentile YPRR (2.79) and 95th-percentile PFF route grade–the best YPRR in the entire tight end sample. His ESPN OVERALL score (98th percentile) and OPEN score (95th percentile) are both at the top of the position. When Kincaid was on the field with Josh Allen, he was one of the most productive receiving tight ends in the league. The rub is the 12 games in 2025 and 13 in 2024–he hasn't yet strung together a full healthy season, and the Bills' offense is a little more crowded with D.J. Moore now in the room alongside Khalil Shakir. Kincaid is going as the TE13, and that price represents a bet on a player with the efficiency markers of a top-five tight end who hasn’t recently been able to stay healthy long enough to prove it over a full year. If Kincaid plays 15-plus games in 2026, his underlying metrics suggest he could run away with a top-10 season. Discount accordingly for the health risk, but don't lose sight of the fact that the production when healthy has been exceptional.

Otton is one of the more interesting late-round bets at the position thanks to a specific and well-documented opportunity profile. He finished TE30 overall in 2025 at just 4.9 points per game—a meaningful step back from his TE13 finish in 2024—largely because of touchdown regression. He caught 59 of 80 targets for 572 yards but scored just one touchdown, which torpedoed what would have otherwise been a productive volume season. The underlying metrics are mixed: a 75th-percentile ESPN OPEN score suggests he gets open at a reasonable rate, but his PFF route grade (16th percentile) and YPRR (24th percentile) point to inefficiency on a per-snap basis. His slot rate (81st percentile) and short 5.1 average depth of target frame him as an underneath option who profits from volume rather than from creating big plays. The reason he matters in 2026 is Mike Evans' departure. In the 12 games Evans has missed over the last two seasons, Otton has averaged 6.6 targets, 4.8 catches, 44 yards, and 0.25 touchdowns per game, which works out to 8.4 fantasy points per game, or midrange TE2 numbers. Evans wasn't just any departing receiver; he was Tampa's primary red zone threat, and the touchdowns that flowed through him should redistribute meaningfully. Chris Godwin returns from injury, Emeka Egbuka takes on a larger role, and Jalen McMillan is back, but none of those three is a Mike Evans-level red zone presence. Otton, at 6'5", is the most logical beneficiary in the end zone. He's going as a TE3 in the late rounds, and the path to a TE15 or better finish is genuinely there. He’s a solid late-round flier with positive regression baked in.

Ferguson's TE6 finish in 2025 was driven almost entirely by volume and touchdowns. He caught 82 of 100 targets for 600 yards and eight scores, which is a productive line–but the underlying efficiency tells a more cautious story. His PFF route grade (28th percentile) and YPRR (34th percentile) are squarely below average, his YAC per reception (17th percentile) is downright bad, and his ESPN OPEN score (45th percentile) suggests he's not winning regularly against coverage. What he does is occupy the slot at a 88th percentile rate, run underneath routes, and absorb check-down volume in one of the highest-volume passing offenses in the league. Eight touchdowns in that context is a function of red zone opportunity, not individual dominance. The Cowboys' offense will keep generating targets, and Dak Prescott's trust in Ferguson as a safety valve should remain intact. He's a solid TE2 with realistic TE1 weeks when the red zone breaks right.

Dulcich's advanced metrics in limited 2025 action were genuinely elite–97th-percentile YPRR (2.31), 98th-percentile YAC per reception (7.5), and an 85th-percentile route grade among qualified tight ends. His ESPN OVERALL score (92nd percentile) and OPEN score (79th percentile) both back up the production. The problem has been availability: he's played just 17 NFL games over the last two seasons combined, and the injuries have been the entire story of his career to this point. The Miami situation, though, is unusually favorable, at least from an opportunity standpoint. Darren Waller is out of the way, and the Dolphins' receiving corps is in flux–rookies Chris Bell and Caleb Douglas, Malik Washington, and free agent additions Jalen Tolbert and Tutu Atwell give Tua Tagovailoa a wide-open and unproven group of pass-catchers to throw to. If Dulcich can stay on the field, the route-running and YAC efficiency he showed in 2025 could translate into a meaningful target share in an offense that desperately needs reliable receiving options. He's going as a deep-league TE2, and at that price, the upside is significant relative to the cost. The health is the entire bet.

Washington is one of the more interesting athletic profiles at the position–6'7" with a 96th-percentile speed score, the kind of physical archetype that should translate into a featured receiving role at some point in his NFL career. The 2025 numbers don't yet reflect that potential: he averaged 3.6 points per game on just 43 targets. But the advanced metrics tell a more intriguing story. His YPRR (85th percentile), YAC per reception (97th percentile), and avoided tackle rate (98th percentile) are all elite–when Washington gets the ball, he creates after the catch better than nearly any TE in the league. The drop rate (7th percentile) is a real concern that he'll need to address. Jonnu Smith's departure clears the secondary TE role, and even with Pat Freiermuth firmly entrenched as the lead, Washington should see more snaps and more route opportunities. The HC Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers combination should lean slightly more pass-heavy than recent Steelers offenses, and 12-personnel sets that feature both tight ends are likely to be a meaningful component of the playbook. He's a deep-league dart throw with legitimate athletic upside if the volume materializes.

Bowers has the tools to be the best tight end in fantasy football. He finished TE2 in 2024 and TE4 on a per-game basis in 2025 despite missing five games. His 12.0 points per game over those 12 games were essentially identical to his rookie production. The underlying metrics are elite: 88th percentile PFF pass route grade among tight ends, 81st percentile in YPRR (1.70), and a 72nd percentile contested catch rate that reflects his physicality when the ball is in the air. His ESPN OVERALL score (89th percentile) is among the best in the sample. The limitation has always been team context. The Raiders are one of the worst offensive environments in the league, i.e. fewer touchdowns scored, and Bowers has had to absorb that drag on his production. He's going as the consensus TE1, likely due to the belief that Fernando Mendoza will turn the Raiders’ offense around.

Sadiq is a unicorn athlete at the tight end position. Per Player Profiler, he tested at the 100th percentile in the 40-yard dash, 100th percentile in Speed Score, 100th percentile in Burst Score, and 99th percentile in Catch Radius—a Vernon Davis-level athletic profile. Oregon deployed him accordingly, lining him up in the slot at a 90th-percentile rate (58.5%) among all tight ends in the PFF dataset. This isn’t a blocking tight end who happened to run fast at the combine; this is a movable chess piece who can stress defenses from every alignment. The Jets already spent a Day 2 pick on Mason Taylor last year, and Taylor led the team in receptions (44) as a rookie. The bigger issue is the quarterback situation. Geno Smith is a bridge, this offense ranked 29th in scoring last year, and target competition with Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall will cap volume early. For Sadiq, back-end TE2 with splash weeks driven by that absurd athletic profile.