In 2024, Jackson was historically dominant—the overall QB1 at 25.5 points per game with 13 of 16 games over 20 points and zero games below 10. Then 2025 happened. Jackson missed five games, finished QB20 overall, and cratered in the second half of the season, averaging just 12.0 points per game after the midway point compared to 23.8 before it. The rushing, typically his fantasy floor, fell to 26.9 yards per game with just two rushing touchdowns—a fraction of his usual production. His efficiency slipped to the 60th percentile in EPA per dropback, still respectable but a far cry from the MVP-caliber play of the prior season. The offseason brings change. Isaiah Likely is gone, and while Mark Andrews is back, the Ravens are banking on rookie tight ends Ja'Kobi Lane and Elijah Sarratt to fill the void alongside him. New offensive coordinator Declan Doyle takes over play-calling duties. Zay Flowers remains a legitimate number-one receiver, but the overall supporting cast feels thinner than it was a year ago and he has missed 18% of his games in the last five seasons. Jackson is going as the QB2 with an overall ADP in the middle of the fifth round. The talent is undeniable—when healthy, Jackson has as high a ceiling as anyone in fantasy. But the second-half collapse, the reduced rushing, and a transitional roster make QB2 a price that carries more risk than it has in years.

Allen is the safest pick at the quarterback position, and it's not particularly close. He's finished QB1 and QB2 the last two seasons while playing all 34 games, and his consistency is remarkable—he's scored 20-plus fantasy points in 59% of games over that stretch with only four games below 10. His 2025 efficiency was elite: 93rd percentile in EPA per dropback and 87th percentile in CPOE, and the rushing remains the league's best fantasy cheat code at the position. Allen averaged 37.4 rushing yards per start with 14 rushing touchdowns last season. That's a RB2 season's worth of rushing touchdowns on top of 25 passing touchdowns, and it’s his third consecutive season with at least 12 rushing touchdowns. The Bills added D.J. Moore to a receiving corps that already includes Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid, giving Allen arguably his deepest set of pass-catchers since Stefon Diggs was in Buffalo. He's going as the QB1 off the board with an overall ADP around pick 30, and that's the right price. The only question is whether you want to spend that draft capital on a quarterback when you could wait and get a value QB significantly later. But if you want the highest floor and the highest ceiling at the position, Allen is the pick. If the draft gets weird and the available options in the third round aren’t too appealing, then Allen is an extremely safe pick.

Goff finished QB7 and QB11 the last two seasons, yet he's going as the QB16 off the board. That's a massive disconnect. He threw for 4,564 yards and 34 touchdowns last season with an 82nd percentile EPA per dropback and 71st percentile CPOE—both strong marks for a quarterback in one of the league's best offenses. New offensive coordinator Drew Petzing introduces some uncertainty, but Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and an elite offensive line are all still in place. The concern, as always, is that Goff offers nothing as a runner (3.1 rush yards per start), so he's entirely volume- and touchdown-dependent, and his well-documented home/road splits remain a factor. Over the last three seasons, he has averaged 20.8 fantasy points per game at home versus 15.6 on the road, but that predictability can be useful. The Jared Goff Gambit is once again viable: Draft Goff as your QB1, start him in home games and favorable road matchups, and stream/committee the position during his tougher away games. That approach can produce midrange QB1 numbers at a midrange QB2 price.

In each of the past two seasons, Mahomes has finished QB10 in total points, but he was the QB4 on a per-game basis last year after missing a couple of games. His CPOE (47th percentile) suggests the pinpoint accuracy isn't always there, but his EPA per dropback (84th percentile) and overall play-making ability keep him firmly in the QB1 conversation. The separator last year was his rushing. He has always been a threat to run–he has six straight seasons with 307+ yards as a runner–but as a 30-year-old, Mahomes set career-highs in rushing yards (422), and touchdowns (5). Rashee Rice is an alpha, and Xavier Worthy is fully healthy after a shaky 2025, health-wise. The Chiefs signed Kenneth Walker to replace Isiah Pacheco in the backfield. Mahomes is going off the board as a low-end QB1 and while his days of being a consensus top-three pick appear to be over, getting a quarterback with midrange QB1 upside outside the top 10 at the position is good value.

Darnold's fantasy career has been a wild ride. He finished QB8 in 2024 with Minnesota—one of the bigger surprises of the fantasy season—and promptly followed it with a QB14 overall finish in Seattle that translates to just QB25 on a per-game basis. The regression was steep: he averaged 17.2 points per game in the first half of 2025 before cratering to 11.2 after the midpoint, finishing with six games below 10 points. The interceptions were a real problem—14 on the season—which undercut what was otherwise genuinely accurate play (93rd percentile in CPOE) and solid efficiency (80th percentile in EPA per dropback). He also brings almost nothing on the ground, averaging 6.4 rushing yards per start with zero rushing touchdowns. The roster in Seattle has turned over at running back—Kenneth Walker is gone, replaced by rookie Jadarian Price—but the passing game has some upside. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a legitimate number-one, and Rashid Shaheed should make more of an impact in his second year in the offense. Cooper Kupp adds a reliable veteran presence. Whether this group is enough to keep Darnold out of double-digit-interception territory again is the real question. Darnold is going as a low-end QB2, and that's about right. He's a frustrating player to roster—flashes of genuine quality surrounded by stretches of turnover-prone football that will lose you weeks.

Mayfield's 2025 was a rude correction after a career year in 2024. He went from a QB5 finish at 21.5 points per game to QB12 overall but just QB18 on a per-game basis at 16.2 points per game—a drop of over five points per game. The efficiency numbers reflected the decline: 56th percentile in EPA per dropback and 27th percentile in CPOE, a far cry from the guy who threw for 41 touchdowns and carried fantasy rosters two seasons ago. He faded as the year wore on, averaging 17.6 points in the first half and 14.8 in the second, with a pair of sub-5-point clunkers mixed in along the way. Now he loses Mike Evans, his most reliable weapon over the past two seasons, and that's a real concern. The hope is that Chris Godwin's return to full health, Jalen McMillan coming back from his own injury, and Emeka Egbuka can collectively absorb Evans' vacated targets and red-zone presence. That's a lot of "ifs" for a quarterback whose accuracy was already slipping. Cade Otton provides a steady check-down option at tight end, and Mayfield's legs (23.0 rush yards per start) offer a modest floor. The upside is a top-10 finish if the receiving corps gels. The downside is a QB2 with limited ceiling if the Evans-sized hole doesn't get filled. At the cost of a low-end QB2, the risk-reward is palatable, but he's more of a QB2 with upside than a reliable starter.

Lawrence has quietly put together a strong case as one of the most undervalued quarterbacks at his price point. After back-to-back injury-shortened seasons, he returned healthy in 2025 and finished QB4 overall at 19.7 points per game—and the second-half surge was striking, improving from 16.6 points per game before the midpoint to 22.7 after it. The rushing is underrated: Lawrence averaged 21.6 yards per start with nine rushing touchdowns last season, a number that rivals some of the best dual-threat weeks at the position. His accuracy still lags—29th percentile in CPOE—but the EPA per dropback (69th percentile) and the touchdown production suggest he makes enough plays where it counts. The Jaguars lost Travis Etienne but added Chris Rodriguez to help carry the backfield load, and it's Year 2 with Liam Coen, who is making the case that he’s one of the best offensive minds in the league. The receiving corps features Brian Thomas Jr. as a possible WR1, Jakobi Meyers as a reliable slot option, the efficient Parker Washington, and Travis Hunter, who has the talent to produce, provided he gets enough run on offense. Lawrence is going as a midrange QB1, and given his QB4 finish last year and the rushing floor he provides, that price looks fair. If the second-year Coen offense unlocks another level, there's top-five upside here once again.

Love's 2025 season was a tale of two stories. On the surface, he finished QB13 with a QB21 per-game average—solid, but not great. But Love left three games early due to injury (Weeks 11, 12, and 16), and when those are removed, his per-game average jumps to 17.2 points, or about QB14 on a per-game basis. More importantly, his efficiency metrics were outstanding: 98th percentile in EPA per dropback and 96th percentile in CPOE, both top marks in the league. The talent and the efficiency are clearly there—the question is whether the Packers will let Love cook, since it’s his passing volume that’s holding him back, not his arm. A healthy Christian Watson and Jayden Reed, the emerging Matthew Golden and Savion Williams, and an elite Tucker Kraft returning from an ACL tear give Love plenty of weapons. If Green Bay increases the pass rate even slightly and Love stays healthy, the gap between his efficiency and his fantasy output should close in a hurry.

Hurts has been one of the most bankable fantasy quarterbacks in football, finishing QB6 and QB7 the last two seasons while playing nearly every game. His per-game average dipped from 21.0 to 18.7 points last year, but the rushing production continued to anchor his floor—26.3 yards per game with eight rushing touchdowns. His accuracy was strong (82nd percentile in CPOE) and the efficiency was solid (67th percentile in EPA per dropback), though the second half of last season was uneven, as he averaged 21.7 points in the first eight games and 15.7 the rest of the way. The big question heading into 2026 is the receiving corps. A.J. Brown is gone, though the Eagles moved up in the first round to nab Makai Lemon and added Dontayvion Wicks and Hollywood Brown. DeVonta Smith is more than capable of stepping into the WR1 role and Dallas Goedert provides a reliable safety valve. Hurts offers solid value at QB7.

After an outstanding rookie year, Stroud has now finished QB19 and QB21 in back-to-back seasons, and the raw numbers don't tell the whole story. His EPA per dropback (78th percentile) was genuinely solid, suggesting he's playing better football than the fantasy results indicate. The accuracy (49th percentile in CPOE) has room to grow, but the bigger drag on his weekly output is the lack of meaningful rushing contribution—15.3 yards per start with one rushing touchdown isn’t much in today’s fantasy landscape. Nico Collins is a legitimate number-one, but Tank Dell's extended absence and the lack of a second reliable weapon kept Stroud from finding much rhythm as the season progressed, though Jayden Higgins had some moments down the stretch. The path to another QB1 season is real: a healthy Tank Dell returning alongside Collins and the addition of rookie Jayden Higgins would give Stroud three genuine options for the first time in his career. David Montgomery replaces Nick Chubb and could stabilize the backfield, and Dalton Schultz is a competent check-down presence at tight end. Stroud is going as a low-end QB2, and that's where the value proposition lives—if the receiver room fully comes together, he has a top-15 ceiling in an efficient offense. But two straight years of so-so outcomes means the burden of proof is on him to demonstrate he can reliably produce in fantasy without an elite supporting cast surrounding him.

Shough was one of the more pleasant surprises from the 2025 draft class. After a couple of early cameo appearances, he took over as the Saints' starter and held the job the rest of the way, starting nine games from Week 9 through Week 18 and averaging 17.1 points per game in that stretch—good for the QB9 overall and QB12 on a per-game basis. That's starter-quality production from a rookie quarterback who most people didn't have pegged as a 2025 contributor. His accuracy was encouraging—64th percentile in CPOE—though the overall EPA per dropback (33rd percentile) lagged behind, likely a function of the Saints' limited receiving corps rather than Shough himself, but it’s something to monitor. He also showed enough as a runner to matter in fantasy, averaging 21.9 rushing yards per start with three rushing touchdowns in nine starts. The Saints addressed the biggest hole in the offense by adding Jordyn Tyson to pair with Chris Olave, giving Shough two legitimate perimeter weapons for the first time. Juwan Johnson returns at tight end. It's Year 2 with Kellen Moore calling the plays, and that continuity matters for a young quarterback still learning the nuances of an NFL offense. He's going off the board as a mid- to low-QB2, and while there's real risk that his rookie-year production was the ceiling rather than the floor, the arrow is pointing up. If Tyson and Olave can stay healthy and give Shough consistent targets on the outside, he has the accuracy and the rushing ability to push into low-end QB1 territory. He's a fine QB2 with sneaky upside at his current price.

Dart was one of last year's most pleasant surprises. After a couple of brief relief appearances in Weeks 2 and 3, he took over as the Giants' starter in Week 4 and never looked back, averaging 20.1 fantasy points per game in his 12 starts—a top-six pace over the final 15 weeks. The passing efficiency was solid but unspectacular—71st percentile in EPA per dropback and 42nd percentile in CPOE—but it’s the rushing production that’s his super power. Dart averaged 40.6 rushing yards per start with nine rushing touchdowns, giving him the kind of weekly floor that makes dual-threat quarterbacks so valuable in fantasy. The supporting cast has improved significantly heading into Year 2, thanks to the expected return of Malik Nabers and free agent Isaiah Likely joining breakout TE Theo Johnson. Darnell Mooney, Malachi Fields, and Calvin Austin III should provide better depth in the receiver room. The CPOE suggests his accuracy still has room to grow, but as a low-end QB1 off the board, Dart is a strong value for a quarterback who was essentially a top-five producer once he became the full-time starter. One word of warning: Sophomore quarterbacks have a wide range of outcomes.

Williams took a meaningful step forward in Year 2, improving from a solid QB14 rookie finish to the overall QB6 at 18.8 points per game, a 3.6-point-per-game increase. He showed the ability to spike with a 37.7-point explosion, and demonstrated that Ben Johnson's system fits his skillset. The rushing contribution (22.8 yards per start, three touchdowns) gives him a nice floor that his rookie season didn't always provide. The advanced stat concerns are real, though. His CPOE sat at the 16th percentile. He can make plays, but he remains an inconsistent thrower, and losing D.J. Moore, his veteran security blanket, matters. Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland, and second-year Luther Burden III all have upside, however. Year 2 in Johnson's system should help, and the ceiling is firmly top-five if the accuracy improves and the receiver group gels. He's going as a midrange QB1, which means you're paying for the upside while accepting the inconsistency. If the CPOE improves to match his EPA (62nd percentile), he's a borderline value. If it doesn't, he may be hard-pressed to match his ADP.

Mendoza is the clear QB1 in this class after leading Indiana to a national title and a Heisman. Advanced stats-wise, his college profile is rare: a 98th-percentile PFF Pass Grade (90.7), 94th-percentile Adjusted Completion % (79.0), and 98th-percentile yards per attempt (9.3). He wasn't manufacturing that efficiency underneath either—his aDOT sat at 9.8 yards. Forty-one touchdowns against six picks across 16 games. My Rookie QB model predicts around 17 yards rushing per game, which is not nothing, and the landing spot has pieces. Brock Bowers is a top-three fantasy tight end, Ashton Jeanty should take a leap in Year 2 under Klint Kubiak's run-heavy scheme, and the Tyler Linderbaum signing shores up the interior line. The receiver room is the problem—Tre Tucker, Jack Bech, and Dont’e Thornton are underwhelming, and Kubiak's play-action-heavy system could cap passing volume. Kirk Cousins adds a short-term murky timeline, though most first-overall QBs are starting within weeks. QB3 in redraft with a ceiling tied to the weapons around him; priority dynasty target at a discounted price.

Taylor finished as the RB2 in half-PPR formats in 2025, trailing only Christian McCaffrey. After an injury-shortened 2024 that dropped him to RB14 in 13 games, he returned with a full workload and validated his standing as a top-tier bell cow. The efficiency leans heavily on what he does after contact–his YAC/Att ranked at the 88th percentile among qualified backs. His 82nd-percentile PFF run grade confirms he's operating at an above-average level as a runner even when the blocking isn't generating much pre-contact space (57th-percentile YBC/Att). The receiving role is solid but not spectacular–54 targets, 46 catches, 378 yards–enough to support his half-PPR ceiling without driving it. A locked-in workhorse with elite after-contact traits. Draft him as a high-floor RB1.

Jones dropped from RB15 in 2024 to RB43 in 2025, missing five games with injury and posting efficiency numbers that suggest the decline is real and not just about availability. He ranked dead last among qualified backs in elusive rating–65th out of 65 qualified backs–and his run grade came in at the 18th percentile, his broken-tackle rate at the 20th. At 31 years old, those aren't numbers that are likely to bounce back. The receiving role was present in volume but the route grade ranked at the 10th percentile. Given his struggles running the ball, there's not much here for fantasy purposes unless injuries open the door, and even then the underlying metrics aren’t encouraging.

McCaffrey finished as the RB1 in half-PPR formats in 2025, but the caveat is significant–he appeared in just four games in 2024. When healthy, his production is driven almost entirely by the passing game. He led all running backs in targets (121) and route grade (99th percentile among qualified RBs), while ranking 3rd in YPRR (96th percentile)–a profile that sets him apart from traditional workhorses. The rushing efficiency tells a different story: his run grade (14th percentile) and YAC/Att (9th percentile) are well below average, suggesting he's no longer the same threat between the tackles. However, given his receiving, the upside is the weekly RB1 ceiling when healthy.

Barkley went from the overall RB1 in 2024 to RB13 in 2025, and the efficiency numbers suggest the regression may be real. His run grade fell to the 60th percentile, his elusive rating to the 48th, and his YAC/Att to the 14th. Not great. The receiving role was voluminous (86th-percentile target share) but not efficient; his route grade ranked at the 14th percentile and his YPRR (0.84) was below average. Philadelphia added tackle Markel Bell in the third round, but he’s known more as a pass-blocker than a mauler in the run game. Barkley is 29, entrenched as the starter, and volume and touchdown opportunities should be fine. Which was the outlier–2024 or 2025? The data leans toward the former.

Jacobs dropped from RB5 in 2024 to RB12 in 2025, though he was the RB9 on a per-game basis and his 2025 season still had its moments–13 rushing touchdowns kept him relevant even as his per-game average dipped from 16.5 to 14.6 points per game. The efficiency picture is uneven. His PFF run grade ranked at the 77th percentile and his broken-tackle rate at the 62nd, but his YBC/Att came in at the 26th percentile, reflecting an offensive line that wasn't generating much room before contact. His success rate (40th percentile) confirms the ground game was a bit of a grind. The receiving profile is the most underrated part of his game–his route grade ranked at the 95th percentile, and his YPRR at the 75th, making him a quality pass-catcher despite the modest target volume. The blocking environment seems to be trending the wrong way. The Packers ranked 31st in net OL spending this offseason, lost two net linemen (Elgton Jenkins and Rasheed Walker), and made no offensive line investments in the first three rounds of the draft, though they did draft a center (Jager Burton) in the fifth round. The run blocking was already a liability in 2025, and there's no obvious reason to expect improvement this season. The more pressing issue is off the field. Jacobs was arrested on May 23rd following a domestic disturbance complaint and booked on five charges: battery, criminal damage to property, disorderly conduct, strangulation and suffocation, and intimidation of a victim. His attorneys state he is denying the charges. The Brown County District Attorney's Office subsequently indicated it is not yet prepared to formally charge him, noting that while probable cause supported the arrest, the evidence did not meet the DA's higher standard for prosecution. The case remains open and charges could still be filed. An NFL suspension is possible this season or next, and the range of outcomes–no suspension, a multi-game suspension, or something longer–is wide enough to make him impossible to draft with confidence. Until there is more clarity on the legal and disciplinary front, he's a player to monitor rather than actively target.

Pollard has finished RB21 and RB22 in back-to-back seasons, which is reliable production but not particularly useful for fantasy. His efficiency profile explains the ceiling. His run grade (28th percentile), success rate (18th percentile), and YAC/Att (35th percentile) are all below average, and his elusive rating (42nd percentile) doesn't suggest he's generating many yards on his own. His YBC/Att (72nd percentile) is pretty good, and indicates Tennessee's line creates some pre-contact room. His receiving game compounds the issue–his YPRR (18th percentile) and route grade (22nd percentile) are near the bottom of the position despite decent target volume (41). The ceiling here is another mid-low-end RB2 season.

Henderson's 2025 splits tell two very different stories. In Rhamondre Stevenson's 13 healthy games, he averaged 10.5 touches, 56 yards, and 0.38 touchdowns–low-end RB3 production. In the games where Stevenson was out or limited, Henderson averaged 19.6 touches, 103 yards, and 1.25 touchdowns, which is strong RB1 territory. He’s being drafted as a low-end RB2, and that perceived value hinges on Stevenson’s fragility or the potential of Henderson usurping Stevenson’s role. Henderson’s 94th-percentile YBC/Att suggests he's quick to find the ample running lanes opened by New England’s excellent offensive line, and his overall profile–55th-percentile run grade, 65th-percentile elusive rating, 58th-percentile success rate–is consistently above average without a standout metric. New England again invested in the offensive line this offseason and added first-round tackle Caleb Lomu, so the line should continue to be a strength. Given Stevenson's injury history–he's missed 10 games in the last three seasons–Henderson carries real upside. The downside is that Henderson could continue to see 10 touches per game as part of a committee.

Hampton's rookie season was cut short at nine games, leaving a limited but promising sample. He finished RB32 overall at 13.3 points per game (RB16 per-game production), and the efficiency profile holds up well under the circumstances–his run grade ranked at the 86th percentile and his broken-tackle rate at the 94th, fourth-highest among qualified backs. His YAC/Att (22nd percentile) is the one concern, though 124 rookie carries is a small sample. The receiving role was functional without being a focal point, and his 71st-percentile route grade suggests the foundation is there. The bigger news for 2026 is Joe Alt's return. Alt missed virtually all of last season with injury, and getting an elite tackle back into the lineup should meaningfully improve Hampton's blocking environment. Keaton Mitchell adds depth but isn't a threat to the workload. Hampton enters the season as the clear starter with an offense and line that should be better than what he had last year.

Mason's advanced stats don’t match his fantasy results. In 2025 he posted a 78th-percentile run grade, 83rd-percentile success rate, and 86th-percentile YAC/Att–legitimate numbers for a quality early-down back. The problem is everything around it. His receiving profile is essentially nonexistent, with a 3rd-percentile YPRR and 6th-percentile route grade, which limits his role in any modern offense, especially with Aaron Jones still in the mix. Sharing a backfield with Jones in Minnesota meant the volume was split further; neither back has a clear path to a workhorse workload. Mason is a good runner stuck in a timeshare because he’s not an adept receiver. He's worth monitoring pending Jones’s durability.

In 2024 Warren finished RB40 in 14 games, largely buried behind Najee Harris in a rotation that didn't suit him. In 2025, with a clearer path, he jumped to RB18 and put together one of the better under-the-radar efficiency profiles at the position–94th-percentile elusive rating (4th in the NFL), 91st-percentile broken-tackle rate, and 82nd-percentile YAC/Att. The receiving game is equally strong: his route grade (91st percentile) and YPRR (90th percentile) rank among the best at the position. He's a legitimate three-down back when given the opportunity, but that’s in question yet again. Rico Dowdle's arrival and reunion with Mike McCarthy, who coached him in Dallas in 2024, introduces a familiarity dynamic that could push Warren back into a secondary role. Pittsburgh's 114 vacated carries create room for both backs, but how McCarthy distributes them will determine Warren's value. If Dowdle takes the early-down work and Warren holds the passing-down role, the floor is still serviceable in PPR formats. If Warren sees lead back touches, his advanced stats point to a potential RB1 season.

Jeanty finished RB14 as a rookie, which looks more impressive given what he was working against–his 6th-percentile YBC/Att reflects an offensive line that gave him almost nothing before contact. He kept himself afloat through elusiveness (86th-percentile elusive rating) and a strong broken-tackle rate (82nd percentile). The 2026 picture is more encouraging. Las Vegas was the NFL's biggest offensive line net spender this offseason (+$28.3M), headlined by the signing of center Tyler Linderbaum from Baltimore–a 92nd-percentile run blocker who is a direct upgrade for Jeanty. If that pre-contact runway opens up even modestly, a back with his rushing ability could take a real step forward.

Judkins' rookie season looks worse on the surface than it actually was. His YBC/Att ranked at the 3rd percentile–the line gave him almost no room before contact–and yet he still posted a 72nd-percentile YAC/Att, generating something on runs that were otherwise dead on arrival. Cleveland's offensive line was one of the worst in the league, and the run grade (11th percentile) reflects that as much as anything that Judkins did with the ball. The offseason changes are substantial. Cleveland ranked second in net OL spending, adding Elgton Jenkins and Zion Johnson in free agency and drafting Spencer Fano (92nd/96th-percentile grades) in the first round and Austin Barber (top-rated run blocker in the college sample) in the third. If the line improves even modestly toward league average, the pre-contact numbers should look very different and Judkins’ production could seriously spike. He’s one of the more straightforward year-two breakout cases at the position, and he’s being drafted as a low-end RB2, right where he finished last year.

Williams finished RB6 and RB8 in back-to-back seasons–the fantasy community continues to underestimate him, yet he continues to produce. Williams has quietly been one of the best fantasy backs in the league in the last three years, scoring 44 total touchdowns while averaging 1,455 yards per season and averaging 4.6 yards per carry. His 91st-percentile run grade is the standout number. The Rams' scheme does a lot of the work, though–his 86th-percentile YBC/Att reflects good blocking as much as good running, and his elusive rating (35th percentile) and YAC/Att (52nd percentile) aren't generating much when the holes aren’t there, but the holes are usually there in Sean McVay’s scheme. The receiving role (36 catches) is fine, but nothing special. I’m expecting midrange to low-end RB1 numbers once again, so his midrange RB2 ADP is quite appealing.

In 2024, Hubbard was the RB12, with 14.7 points per game, 1,366 yards and 11 touchdowns in 15 games. He was a legitimate featured back when healthy. The 2025 season is best set aside–the calf injury that stripped him of the starting job (lost to Rico Dowdle) produced efficiency numbers (2nd-percentile broken-tackle rate, 3rd-percentile elusive rating) that reflect a back who physically couldn't cut or absorb contact, and probably not a back who lost his ability to run the football. Carolina enters 2026 with 236 vacated RB carries, 60.4% of their total, with Dowdle now in Pittsburgh. The opportunity for Hubbard to reclaim a featured role is real. The question is Jonathon Brooks, who finally appears ready to play after back-to-back ACL tears in his right knee in 2023 and 2024. Brooks returning is legitimate competition, but two torn ACLs in consecutive seasons leaves durability as a genuine concern regardless of how he looks in camp. Carolina also invested in the offensive line, adding first-round tackle Monroe Freeling out of Georgia, which should help whichever back leads the committee. If Hubbard is healthy and Brooks is still finding his footing, there's a path back to RB2 production. He's worth drafting as a high-upside RB3 with a real shot at more, though Brooks’ progress this summer will determine Hubbard’s overall upside.

Walker produced a 97th-percentile run grade in 2025, second-best among qualified backs, so the talent is real. The problem in Seattle was opportunity–221 carries, five touchdowns, while sharing the backfield with Zach Charbonnet. Kansas City represents a significant change in scenery: the Chiefs enter 2026 with 288 vacated RB carries, the most of any team in the NFL, clearing the runway for a genuine workhorse role. The concern is the blocking environment. KC's run-block win rate fell from 7th to 25th last season, and the team was a net loser in offensive line spending this offseason with no early-round picks. Creed Humphrey remains an elite center, but run blocking was a weakness last year and it really didn't get addressed. Walker's elite elusiveness (89th-percentile elusive rating, 88th-percentile broken-tackle rate) gives him a chance to generate on his own, which is probably why the Chiefs went after him. A high-upside RB2 some environment risk.

Achane has finished RB7 and RB5 the last two seasons, and the efficiency profile backs it up–his run grade and YAC/Att both rank at the 98th percentile. He's a legitimate difference-maker with the ball in his hands. The 2026 context is a tougher call, since there’s been a coaching and quarterback change in Miami. Malik Willis's mobility should help Achane on the ground–a running QB stresses defenses horizontally and tends to create opportunities for the running back. The passing game is a different story. Running QBs historically dump off to backs less than pocket passers do, which puts Achane's large receiving role at risk. He was a 94th-percentile target back in 2025; that number could come down. Miami's WR room turned over significantly–240 vacated targets–so there's opportunity there, but whether a new coaching staff funnels any of it to Achane is an open question. On a team that figures to be bad and trailing frequently, game script adds another layer of uncertainty. The talent is easy to trust. The situation isn't.

Robinson has quietly been one of the more consistent backs in the league, finishing RB4 and RB3 in back-to-back seasons. What sets him apart is the receiving profile–he led all running backs in YPRR (99th percentile) and ranked 2nd in targets (97th percentile), posting 79 catches for 820 yards and four scores. As a rusher he's well-rounded–97th-percentile elusive rating, 85th-percentile YBC/Att–without a glaring weak spot. Atlanta enters 2026 with 143 vacated RB carries, 6th-most in the NFL–via Tyler Allgeier’s departure, though Brian Robinson will replace him–so there's a chance Bijan’s touch volume grows. A high-floor, high-ceiling RB1.

Rodriguez arrives in Jacksonville carrying some of the stronger efficiency numbers at the position. His YAC/Att ranked at the 97th percentile–second in the NFL–and his success rate (94th percentile) and broken-tackle rate (92nd percentile) round out an impressive profile. The caveat, as with several backs running behind poor offensive lines, is that his YBC/Att ranked at the 5th percentile in Washington, meaning very little of his production came before first contact. Jacksonville didn’t invest heavily in the offensive line this offseason, though the addition of guard Emmanuel Pregnon (99th-percentile run blocker) in the third round should create more holes. The Liam Coen connection is worth noting as context–Rodriguez ran for 1,379 yards and nine touchdowns under Coen at Kentucky in 2021. He had no meaningful receiving work in 2025, which limits his PPR upside in what figures to be a committee with Tuten. He's a legitimate late-round target with a higher floor than his RB37 draft position implies if the Jacksonville run game improves.

Skattebo's rookie season was cut short by a dislocated ankle in Week 8, which is the only reason a back who averaged 19.5 touches, 97 rushing yards, and a touchdown per game from Weeks 2 through 7 isn't a consensus RB1 conversation. He's targeting a return during camp with the expectation of being ready for Week 1, and the Giants appear to share that confidence–they didn't add a running back in free agency or the draft, leaving Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary as the backups behind him. The efficiency data comes with a sample size caveat at 101 carries, but nothing in it raises flags, and it’s actually encouraging. His run grade (72nd percentile) and elusive rating (72nd percentile) are above average, and his broken-tackle rate sits at the 65th percentile. The more impressive numbers are in the receiving game, where his YPRR ranked at the 88th percentile and his route grade at the 90th. He's a legitimate three-down back, not just a runner. New York also used the 10th overall pick on guard Francis Mauigoa, a meaningful OL investment that should help Skattebo’s pre-contact numbers, which were below average in 2025 (35th-percentile YBC/Att).

Wilson has spent two seasons as Josh Jacobs' backup in Green Bay, finishing RB50 both years with minimal volume. The question of how good he actually is has a complicated answer. His 95th-percentile success rate is the most striking number in his profile–third-best among qualified backs behind a Green Bay offensive that struggled to open holes. Most of the rest of his rushing profile is average to below average: 48th-percentile run grade, 40th-percentile elusive rating, 14th-percentile YBC/Att, underscoring the Packers’ run-blocking struggles. His YAC/Att ranks at the 75th percentile, which is legit. He’s not much of a receiver, though he did have a couple of three-catch games last season. The situation in Seattle is what makes him intriguing. After losing Kenneth Walker III, the Seahawks enter 2026 with 226 vacated carries, 52.9% of their total–the largest vacancy in the league. Zach Charbonnet tore his ACL in February and is likely out for at least the first half of the season, leaving Wilson as a potential starter by default. Jadarian Price was drafted in the first round and could be a factor quickly, but as a rookie it’s not certain he’ll be ready to start Week 1. George Holani is also in the mix, but he has a 3.3 career YPC on just 25 carries. In eight games where Wilson saw 10+ carries in Green Bay, he averaged 74 total yards and 0.76 touchdowns on 16.3 touches per game, or solid RB2 numbers. Wilson is a functional running back in a role that most functional running backs would thrive in. The success rate, YAC/att, and the feature back splits are encouraging. If Price falters, Wilson could be a surprise fantasy starter.

Irving finished RB16 in 2024 and RB37 in 2025, but the per-game averages tell a more consistent story–12.8 and 12.6 points respectively. What the advanced numbers reveal is that Irving was a much better receiver in 2025 than he was a runner. His YPRR ranked at the 87th percentile and his route grade at the 74th, while nearly every rushing metric was well below average–6th-percentile success rate, 14th-percentile run grade, 15th-percentile YBC/Att–though he was far better as a runner in 2024. He continues to recover from offseason shoulder surgery, and Todd Bowles put the return timeline at "summer or fall," which doesn't inspire confidence about Week 1 availability. Adam Schefter said that Irving is “likely to be ready at some point during training camp,” which provides more optimism. Irving’s role is a little up in the air. He saw zero carries inside the five in 2025, with Sean Tucker and Rachaad White handling that role. Kenneth Gainwell replacing White adds another element of murkiness to this backfield as far as roles are concerned. Irving is a viable RB2 in PPR formats when healthy, but the injury cloud and the lack of a goal-line role make him difficult to rely on for starter-caliber numbers.

Croskey-Merritt quietly put together a nice first year as a featured back, with his run grade (57th percentile), elusive rating (68th percentile), success rate (66th percentile), and broken-tackle rate (68th percentile) all clustering in the same above-average range without a standout in any direction. So he's a consistent but unspectacular runner. The receiving game is essentially nonexistent–11 targets all season, 1st-percentile volume, 8th-percentile route grade–so his value is entirely rush-dependent. Washington enters 2026 with 126 vacated carries (37.6% of team carries), the bulk of which belonged to Chris Rodriguez, giving JCM a real opportunity to take on a bigger workload. The concern is the offensive line: Washington ranked 27th in net OL spending this offseason and made no early draft investments at the position. The Commanders signed Rachaad White and Jerome Ford, Jeremy McNichols is still around, and they added Kaytron Allen in the draft. This could turn ugly quickly if JCM doesn’t have a good summer.

What Brooks showed at Texas in 2023 was genuinely impressive–1,425 total yards and 11 touchdowns in 11 games as a sophomore, with a 9th-ranked run grade and the 11th-most missed tackles forced in the college sample, plus a solid receiving profile. The talent was never the question. Two ACL tears in the same knee in consecutive seasons is the issue, and it's a significant one even with a full medical clearance and the Brooks reporting he's close to 100 percent. That phrase covers a wide range of realities going into his first real NFL season. Carolina's 236 vacated carries create a real opportunity alongside Chuba Hubbard, and Monroe Freeling's addition at tackle should help whoever leads the backfield. Brooks figures to ease into a complementary role while the coaching staff evaluates how his knee holds up under NFL contact. The ceiling is real if the knee is right.

Pierce's breakout in 2025 deserves more attention than it got–1,003 yards in 14 games, WR34. The profile is unusual. His ESPN OPEN score is the 4th percentile, meaning almost no one in the 110-receiver sample got open less consistently, yet his PFF route grade (87th percentile) and YPRR (88th percentile) are both very good. The explanation is the extreme vertical route tree: Pierce's 20.0 average depth of target was among the highest in the league. He runs go routes and deep posts, creates the separation on his terms, and his 84th-percentile drop rate says he catches what comes his way. He doesn't manufacture yards after the catch (57th percentile) or thrive in contested situations (41st percentile). The Colts have 108 vacated WR targets entering 2026 with Michael Pittman gone, giving Pierce a path to legit WR1 usage as the team's deep threat. Daniel Jones recovering from his Achilles tear is the schematic question–how much can a returning Jones push the ball downfield to support a 20.0 aDOT receiver. At WR34 ADP, managers are betting that Pierce can repeat his 2025 breakout.

Watson's efficiency numbers when healthy are among the most impressive at the position. In 10 games last season after returning from injury, he caught 35 of 55 targets for 611 yards and six touchdowns, with a PFF route grade (96th percentile) and YPRR (2.51, 96th percentile) that both ranked at the very top of the wide receiver sample. Over 10 games last year, his production extrapolated to a 1,039-yard, 10.2-touchdown pace for a full season. In his 23 career games where he's played at least 70 percent of the snaps, he has averaged 3.6 catches, 63 yards, and 0.70 touchdowns on 6.1 targets per game, or 12.2 fantasy points, solidly WR1-adjacent. The snap share is the key. Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks are both gone, and Watson should command 75 to 80 percent of the snaps as the clear WR1 in Green Bay entering 2026. Jordan Love's 100th-percentile CPOE means the ball will be placed accurately when Watson works downfield, and the Packers' receiving corps–Jayden Reed, Matthew Golden, Savion Williams, and Tucker Kraft returning from his ACL–gives Love enough weapons to keep defenses from doubling Watson. He's going as the WR29 and that's a significant discount for a player with top-15 upside if the snap share materializes as expected.

Metcalf has delivered almost exactly the same season back-to-back–WR22 overall in both 2024 and 2025, averaging 10.4 and 10.5 points per game respectively. His profile splits into two distinct tiers: an average-to-solid route runner (74th-percentile route grade, 76th-percentile YPRR, 57th-percentile ESPN OPEN) and an elite playmaker with the ball in his hands (96th-percentile YAC per reception, 81st-percentile ESPN YAC). Pittsburgh has 102 vacated WR targets (44.3% of WR volume), and with Aaron Rodgers returning with Michael Pittman and Germie Bernard competing for looks, the distribution matters. If Metcalf maintains his role, another WR2 finish is in range. He's going as a low-end WR3/high-end WR4, and for a player who has delivered WR22 production in two consecutive seasons, that's a late-round discount worth taking.

Collins presents one of the most counterintuitive statistical profiles at the position. His ESPN OPEN score is 9th percentile yet his PFF route grade is 94th percentile and his YPRR is 93rd percentile. He's a 6'4" boundary receiver who wins through size, physicality, and positioning rather than through obvious separation, and his 80th-percentile contested catch rate confirms that conclusion. Defenders don't leave him open; he catches the ball anyway, and hi 86th-percentile drop rate shows he makes the most of it when the ball arrives. He's put up 14.9 and 12.7 points per game over the last two seasons and finished WR7 and WR10 per game, respectively. At the WR11, he's priced fairly for a player who has delivered back-to-back top-ten per-game seasons.

McLaurin's 2025 was largely wiped out by injury–nine games, a WR56 finish overall–but the per-game numbers (WR34 at 9.7 ppg) and the limited underlying metrics tell you the player is still very much there. His PFF route grade (94th percentile) and YPRR (90th percentile) were both elite in 10 games, and his 84th-percentile ESPN CATCH score confirms he converts his opportunities cleanly when healthy. The YAC numbers (10th-percentile ESPN, 20th-percentile PFF) show the same limitation as always–he doesn't create after the catch, making him dependent on volume and touchdowns. In the 17 games where Jayden Daniels has played at least 85 percent of the snaps, McLaurin has averaged 4.4 catches, 60 yards, and 0.71 touchdowns per game, or 12.3 fantasy points, low-end WR1 numbers. Washington's vacated target pool is enormous–222 total targets representing 52.4% of the team's volume. With Daniels healthy and that target share redistributing, McLaurin should be the primary beneficiary. He's going as the WR25, and if both McLaurin and Daniels stay healthy, McLaurin should be able to beat that.

Evans' 2025 season was limited to seven games by injury, but when healthy he's still viable–he averaged 9.3 points per game in those games, and his 2024 campaign of WR8 per game (14.6 ppg) over 13 games showed he can still produce when healthy. The concern is the underlying metrics in 2025: a 27th-percentile ESPN OPEN score and 13th-percentile OVERALL, and a 1st-percentile YAC per reception. He's 33 years old and his game has narrowed–he's a boundary receiver who wins on size and positioning rather than separation, and he creates almost nothing after the catch. The argument for him is the San Francisco situation. The 49ers have 157 vacated targets heading into 2026, including 145 from the WR position, so 59% of their WR targets from last season are up for grabs. Brock Purdy's elite efficiency means those opportunities should convert at a high rate. Given his age, Evans as a low-end WR2 seems pricey, but it’s a health bet and a situation bet more than a talent bet, but the upside is real if he plays 13-plus games in an offense with that many quality targets available.

Chase was the overall WR1 in 2024 at nearly 20 points per game. In 2025, with Burrow missing significant time, he finished WR5 overall and WR4 per game, which is still elite. The underlying metrics remain at the top of the position: 98th-percentile route grade, 91st-percentile YPRR, and a 94th-percentile ESPN YAC score that reflects his elite run-after-catch ability, which shows up in his 84th-percentile PFF YAC per reception as well. He's going as the WR1 overall, and the entire bet is Joe Burrow's health–Chase with a functional Burrow is the best receiver in fantasy football.

McMillan delivered a quietly impressive rookie campaign–1,014 yards and seven touchdowns in 17 games while playing in a developing offense with Bryce Young still finding his footing in Year 3. His 81st-percentile route grade and 77th-percentile YPRR are strong numbers for a first-year receiver. His 41st-percentile OPEN score is modest, but he plays almost exclusively from the boundary (17th-percentile slot rate) and still generated consistent production. The Panthers' vacated WR targets are relatively modest–23 WR targets at 8.1%--so the opportunity story here is more about continued role growth than absorbing someone else's volume. He's going as the WR14, which seems fair for a player who delivered a WR2 finish in his rookie year and should improve with a full offseason. On average, 23-year old second-year receivers generated roughly 15-16% more fantasy points than they did as rookies; if McMillan follows suit, he’s looking at a midrange WR1 finish.

Burden’s PFF YPRR was 98th percentile (2.69) and his YAC per reception was 97th percentile (7.3)–elite numbers that put him among the best receivers in the league on a per-route basis. He did it from the slot (73rd percentile slot rate) running short routes (7.5 average depth of target), which is why his 69th-percentile ESPN OPEN score and 77th-percentile YAC score are especially impressive for a rookie. On the flip side, a 2nd-percentile contested catch rate implies he can't win in traffic at all, and a 25th-percentile drop rate is a concern. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception says Burden is “extremely talented” and that “the good heavily outweighs any critiques.” The opportunity for Year 2 is definitely there. Chicago has 149 vacated WR targets (48.1% of WR volume) with D.J. Moore gone, and Burden should definitely see a bump in snaps and targets. Early ADP has Burden going a full round ahead of his teammate, Rome Odunze.

Olave's bounce-back in 2025 was one of the bigger production stories at the position–100 receptions, 1,163 yards, and nine touchdowns after missing eight games in 2024. His 95th-percentile ESPN OPEN score is the foundation: he's among the purest route-runners in the league, winning against coverage cleanly and consistently. The 83rd-percentile YPRR backs it up. The significant limitation is YAC–a 15th-percentile ESPN YAC score and 29th-percentile PFF YAC per reception confirm he's strictly a separator who relies on yards after separation rather than yards after the catch. He needs touchdowns and volume to sustain WR1 production, and the nine touchdowns in 2025 were a high-water mark that may face regression. The Jordyn Tyson arrival cuts both ways. It could draw some of Olave's targets and reduce his volume in a Saints offense that isn't swimming in passing yardage, or it could provide a secondary threat that reduces the coverage attention Olave faces and opens up easy opportunities. Tyler Shough entering Year 2 with Kellen Moore is a modest positive. Going as the WR15, Olave is a WR2 whose ceiling requires touchdowns that aren't guaranteed to repeat.

Shaheed's 2025 was a tale of two entirely different seasons. Before being traded to Seattle, he was producing at an 83-catch, 942-yard, 3.8-touchdown pace in nine games with the Saints–solid WR3-type numbers that reflected his ability as a route-runner and separator. After the trade, the role collapsed entirely: 15 receptions on 26 targets for 188 yards in nine games as a secondary option in a Seahawks offense built around Jaxon Smith-Njigba. His 81st-percentile ESPN OPEN score and 94th-percentile drop rate show the underlying talent is real, but the 2025 Seattle splits showed what happens when an offense isn’t ready to feature a player. The $51 million contract he signed with Seattle in the offseason is the interesting signal here. Teams don't pay $17 million per year to a rotational receiver, so that investment strongly implies he's being penciled in for a significantly larger role, which likely means Cooper Kupp's role is being reduced or restructured. He goes as a low-end WR5 with a 12th-round ADP and the upside is a featured No. 2 in a capable offense. The contract supports the bet: teams investing $51 million in a receiver tend to use them.

Adams turned in one of the more improbable statistical seasons of 2025—14 touchdowns in 14 games at 33 years old, finishing WR7 overall at 13.8 points per game. His 91st-percentile PFF route grade and 89th-percentile ESPN OPEN score confirm the separation ability is still there, and Matthew Stafford's elite efficiency continues to find him in the right spots. The sustainability questions are significant. A touchdown-per-game pace is almost certainly not repeatable–four fewer TDs would cost him nearly 24 points over a full season and shift him from WR1 to solid WR2 territory, which is still higher than he’s being drafted, so the touchdown regression is baked into his ADP. His ESPN YAC (15th percentile) and a 17th-percentile drop rate are genuine concerns for a player entering his age-34 season, and the Rams have essentially zero vacated WR targets to cushion any role reduction. He's a fine WR2 if Stafford stays healthy and the touchdowns hold at double digits–but you're drafting on faith in a 38-year-old quarterback and a 34-year-old receiver maintaining both a health and a production floor.

Wilson is one of the most talented receivers in the league playing in an offense that hasn’t let him cook. His 97th-percentile ESPN OPEN score is among the very best in the sample–he creates clean separation as well as anyone. His 2025 ended after seven games with injury, but in those games he averaged 11.6 points per game (WR15 pace). The Jets have 99 vacated WR targets entering 2026–37.2 percent of the team's WR target share–which is a significant opportunity for a receiver who has never had consistent volume. Geno Smith arrives as a legitimate upgrade: he's not elite, but he's functional, accurate enough to find open receivers, and far less likely to leave Wilson wide open while throwing into coverage elsewhere. At WR17 with an early-fourth-round ADP, Wilson's value assumes he continues to produce at the same level, and that may not take into account his pending QB upgrade. A healthy Wilson with a usable quarterback and the Jets' expanded target vacancy is a legitimate top-15 wide receiver.

Pittman's 2025 in Indianapolis was quietly productive–WR21 overall, 10.0 points per game in 17 games, with seven touchdowns despite being almost exclusively a short-route receiver (8.4 aDOT). His ESPN CATCH score (65th percentile), drop rate (53rd percentile), route grade (63rd percentile), and YPRR (56th percentile) are solid if unspectacular, and he doesn't create much after the catch (35th-percentile YAC). He's a functional volume-and-touchdowns receiver who shows up every week. Pittsburgh has an enormous 102 vacated WR targets (44.3% of WR volume) with 16 vacated inside-the-10 looks (45.7%), which is the obvious appeal. But the competition for that target share is real: DK Metcalf and rookie Germie Bernard are in the room, Aaron Rodgers will push the ball downfield, and Mike McCarthy's offense in Dallas ran a short-to-intermediate scheme that Pittman should fit perfectly. His profile is built for a West Coast-adjacent system, not a deep-ball quarterback. The math still works if he absorbs 110-plus targets in Pittsburgh's offense.

Higgins' rookie season was relatively efficient–41 receptions for 525 yards and six touchdowns in a limited role alongside Nico Collins in 17 games. The six touchdowns on 67 targets (a 9.0% TD rate) are impressive. His hands are good: an 82nd-percentile ESPN CATCH score and 82nd-percentile drop rate confirm he's reliable when the ball arrives. The 60th-percentile OPEN score and 64th-percentile route grade aren’t bad for a rookie. Higgins’ production picked up in the second half of the season. He played at a 49-624-7.7, WR5 pace from Week 8 on. Houston has 55 vacated WR targets (15.9% of WR volume), and the Tank Dell potential return cuts both ways–if Dell returns healthy and commands his usual 80-plus target share, Higgins operates as a complementary WR2/WR3 and the ceiling stays capped. If Dell's health is again an issue, Higgins could inherit significantly more volume alongside Collins.

Addison's 2024 was a legitimate breakout. He finished WR17 overall, 12.9 points per game over 14 games, finishing inside the top 20 for the second time in his career. Then 2025 happened. He regressed to WR43 and 8.7 points per game in 13 games with J.J. McCarthy at quarterback, and the underlying metrics explain why: a 14.3% drop rate (10th percentile), an 8th-percentile ESPN CATCH score, and a 30th-percentile route grade paint the picture of a receiver who struggled to hold onto the football and win against coverage. Kyler Murray represents a genuine upgrade at quarterback since his improvisation and mobility should create more opportunities underneath and on broken plays that a receiver with Addison's field-stretching tendencies (14.5 aDOT) can exploit. The 50 vacated WR targets in Minnesota (17.4% of WR volume) add some incremental opportunity, though the wrinkle is Jauan Jennings' arrival. He’s a reliable underneath option who could absorb some of the intermediate volume that Addison might otherwise see. The question heading into 2026 is which version shows up: the WR17 from 2024 or the drop-prone WR43 from 2025. He’s being drafted as a high-end WR4, so the market seems to be betting more on the latter.

Flowers is one of the most complete receivers in the league by the metrics and one of the more underrated by the overall rankings. His ESPN OVERALL score (96th percentile) and OPEN score (94th percentile) are both elite, as is his 97th-percentile YPRR. The 86th-percentile YAC per reception and 84th-percentile avoided tackle rate confirm what the eye test says: he's a dynamic playmaker who creates after the catch at an elite level. The production has been real–1,211 yards last season–but only five touchdowns dragged his overall finish to WR12. With Mark Andrews absorbing red zone targets at tight end and Derrick Henry handling goal-line carries, Flowers may perpetually be the best player on the Ravens who doesn't score enough. Baltimore's 43 vacated WR targets (21.1% of receiver targets) from departed players adds some incremental opportunity. He's going as the WR18, and the ceiling depends heavily on whether the touchdowns regress positively from five.

Two NFL seasons into what was supposed to be a generational career, Harrison remains one of fantasy's more puzzling investments. He's been WR32 and WR45 overall in his first two years–passable but unremarkable, with underlying metrics that don't yet reflect the talent that made him the fourth overall pick. His PFF route grade (50th percentile) and 10.9% drop rate (20th percentile) are genuinely concerning, and a 57th-percentile ESPN OPEN score suggests he's not consistently creating the separation his draft capital implied. In the seven games from Week 6 to Week 18 where Jacoby Brissett started and Michael Wilson played alongside him, Harrison averaged just 3.0 catches, 43 yards, and 0.29 touchdowns on 5.9 targets, or 7.8 fantasy points per game. Those are WR5-type numbers. The real variable is quarterback. Brissett is in contract negotiations with no deal reportedly close, which means Arizona could enter 2026 with a new signal-caller, and the effect of that change on both receivers is genuinely unknown. He's going as a low-end WR3, and barring glorious reports out of camp this summer, I’m not willing to draft him in that range. Two years of middling production demand the question: is this a situation problem, a development curve, or his actual ceiling?

Nacua led all receivers in ESPN OVERALL score (100th percentile) and was 99th in OPEN, and his PFF route grade (100th percentile) and YPRR (3.71, 100th percentile) were both the best in the entire sample. He backed it up: 129 receptions, 1,715 yards, 10 touchdowns, and a WR1 overall finish at 19.3 points per game in 2025. He also had a 91st-percentile contested catch rate and 86th-percentile YAC per reception, making him effective at every phase of the route. The only flag on his profile is the durability history–he played 11 games in 2024 before returning for a full 2025–and Matthew Stafford's age. Both are real risks, but Stafford was elite last season (91st-percentile EPA) and Nacua's separation ability means he doesn't require elite quarterback play to produce. He's going as the overall WR2, and the metrics make it very difficult to argue with.

Wilson's 2025 season produced one of the most extreme situational splits in the league, and it tells you nearly everything you need to know about drafting him. In the seven games from Week 6 onward where Jacoby Brissett started and Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. shared the field, Wilson averaged 3.4 catches, 51 yards, and 0.29 touchdowns on 5.7 targets, or 8.5 points per game, a low-end WR4. In the five games where Harrison was out of the lineup, Wilson averaged 9.2 catches, 120 yards, and 0.80 touchdowns on 13.6 targets, mind-boggling production that would rank as THE WR1 over a full season. His underlying metrics support the burst: a 90th-percentile ESPN CATCH score and 88th-percentile contested catch rate make him one of the best ball-winners in the league, and the 77th-percentile PFF route grade says the technical foundation is real. The calculation at his WR4-type ADP is straightforward: he's a boom-or-bust bet on how much the Harrison-Wilson dynamic plays out in his favor. If Brissett doesn't return and Arizona installs a new quarterback who distributes targets differently, or if Harrison misses time again, Wilson's ceiling is legitimately top-15. Draft him knowing the floor is a frustrating WR4 and the ceiling is a potential league-winner.

Washington's involvement after the Travis Hunter injury is the best argument for drafting him: 4.6 catches, 71 yards, and 0.44 touchdowns per game on 6.7 targets across Weeks 9 to 18, translating to 12.0 fantasy points per game in a significant role. He finished with 58-847-5 on 95 targets in 16 games. The underlying metrics back the potential. His PFF route grade (90th percentile) and YPRR (87th percentile) are among the stronger profiles in the sample, and his 86th-percentile contested catch rate and 85th-percentile avoided tackle rate confirm he can win at the point of attack and create after contact. The ESPN YAC score (85th percentile) and 65th-percentile OVERALL show a receiver who makes plays when given the opportunity. The 12.0 PPG sample wasn't a fluke against soft competition: it was a productive 23-year-old receiver finally given a starting role in an offense with a capable quarterback.

Every meaningful receiver metric points in the same direction with JSN. He led all wide receivers in ESPN OPEN score (100th percentile) and ranked 98th in OVERALL, and his PFF route grade (99th percentile) and YPRR (3.62, 99th percentile) were both at the top of the sample. The production matched: 119 receptions, 1,793 yards, and 10 touchdowns in 2025–a WR2 overall finish at 18.1 points per game. He also added an 82nd-percentile contested catch rate, which tells you he's not just a soft-route slot receiver who needs clean looks to function. Sam Darnold is a minor concern at quarterback–93rd percentile CPOE sounds great until you see the 14 interceptions–but Darnold got the job done last year and JSN is the rare receiver whose separation ability is good enough to overcome questionable quarterback play. He's going as the WR3 overall, and the metrics justify it.

Pearsall is near the bottom of the sample in separation (25th-percentile ESPN OPEN) but elite at catching the football when it arrives (92nd-percentile ESPN CATCH, 97th-percentile PFF contested catch rate). He doesn't get open easily and doesn't create after the catch–his 10th-percentile YAC per reception makes him one of the worst run-after-catch receivers in the league–but when the ball is in the air, he comes down with it about as reliably as anyone. Zero touchdowns in nine games last season destroyed his fantasy value, but San Francisco has 145 vacated WR targets (59.2% of WR volume) entering 2026. Jauan Jennings is gone, Mike Evans arrives as the established WR1, and Christian Kirk adds another option–but that still leaves a significant target pool available for Pearsall as Brock Purdy's intermediate possession option. Purdy's elite CPOE and anticipation throws fit Pearsall's contested-catch profile. As a low-end WR4, the market is expecting a receiver with elite hands in a target-rich environment at a discount driven by a zero-touchdown season.

There are times that the talent is elite and the ADP is still a problem. Nabers is one of the best young receivers in football–his combined 2024 season and three healthy games in 2025 average out to 14.7 points per game over 17 games, a genuine WR1 number that would have made him 2025’s WR6 on a per-game basis. His 92nd-percentile ESPN OPEN score reflects one of the best separation profiles at the position, and his 85th-percentile YPRR confirms that per-route production over a small but meaningful sample. The health situation is the entire conversation. Nabers underwent surgery for a torn ACL and meniscus in October, then had a follow-up procedure in April to remove scar tissue–the team says the second procedure doesn't delay the recovery timeline, but it's now been eight months since the initial injury. The Giants are targeting Week 1, though head coach John Harbaugh acknowledged it isn't guaranteed and Nabers could begin the year on the PUP list, which would cost him the first four games at minimum. Even if he plays Week 1, ACL recovery doesn't end at clearance–the ramp-up period introduces real risk of reduced production, potential setbacks, and the psychological adjustment of returning to game speed after a serious knee injury. He's going as the WR9 overall, which is a steep draft capital to use on a player who could miss the start of the season and faces legitimate uncertainty for weeks after returning. The floor of this pick is a frustrating, injury-managed half-season. The talent is real; the risk is terrifying.

McConkey's 2025 was a clear step back from his outstanding rookie campaign. He finished WR26 overall at 9.2 points per game, which was down from WR13 and 12.4 points per game in 2024. He caught 66 of 102 targets for 789 yards and six touchdowns in 16 games. Even in a disappointing year, the PFF underlying metrics paint a portrait of a solid possession receiver: 57th percentile route grade, 52nd percentile YPRR, and his 87th-percentile avoided tackle rate is genuinely good. The reason for optimism is the potential for more targets and a change in offensive philosophy with new OC Mike McDaniel at the helm. Keenan Allen's departure removes 100-plus targets from the Chargers' receiving corps, which might help McConkey even though he only saw a six-target drop from his rookie to sophomore season. McDaniel leans heavily on two-WR sets and that will typically help the two receivers who are on the field since they are now competing with a second tight end or a fullback for targets. McDaniel likes having a fullback on the field and this offseason, and the Chargers signed Alec Ingold right on cue. McConkey had a 92nd-percentile YPRR and an 82nd-percentile route grade as a rookie, so he’s done it before. With Allen out of the way and McDaniel calling the shots, I’m expecting a bounceback season into high-end WR2 territory.

Worthy's Year 2 was disappointing. He finished WR55 overall at 6.4 points per game in 14 games–one touchdown, seven games under seven points, and not a single game over 15. His ESPN scores tell a stark story: 17th-percentile OPEN, 11th-percentile CATCH, 8th-percentile YAC, and a 6th-percentile OVERALL that puts him near the bottom of the 110-receiver sample despite playing with Patrick Mahomes. The per-route efficiency was equally underwhelming–46th-percentile route grade, 43rd-percentile YPRR. When he does get the ball, there's some juice there (86th-percentile avoided tackle rate), but he's not generating enough opportunities to make it matter for fantasy. His upside is almost entirely tied to Rashee Rice's availability, and the data says even that needle doesn't move much. Worthy averaged 5.0 targets per game with Rice in the lineup and 5.8 without. Kansas City has 114 vacated WR targets (36.3% of WR volume), so there is a chance that Worthy’s role will grow organically. The Rice situation adds real uncertainty: Rice recently had knee cleanup surgery and is serving a 30-day sentence for a parole violation stemming from his 2024 legal case–release date reportedly June 16. Whether the NFL levies an additional suspension is unclear and adds another layer of unpredictability. If Rice misses meaningful time, Worthy's volume could tick up further than the historical split suggests.

Williams is a slot receiver in its most refined form. He ran 93% of his routes from the slot at Clemson and the efficiency in that role was real: a 90th-percentile PFF receiving grade, 81st-percentile yards per route run (2.27), and an 11th-percentile aDOT (7.7) that tells you exactly what he is and isn't. He wins underneath, catches everything–76.4% catch rate, one drop on the season–and moves the chains. As Matt Harmon puts it, he's a "high-volume slot option you can set your watch by"–winning against man and zone, reliable across all levels, non-flashy but dependable. The Washington fit is legitimately interesting. As Littlefinger once observed, chaos is a ladder, and the Commanders' WR depth chart behind Terry McLaurin is deeply chaotic–Treylon Burks, Luke McCaffrey, Dyami Brown, Jaylin Lane, Van Jefferson. Williams' primary competition in the slot is former third-rounder McCaffrey and fourth-rounder Lane; anyone who wins that job inherits Deebo Samuel's vacated slot snaps in a Jayden Daniels offense that distributes heavily underneath. Daniels' accuracy and willingness to check down is a natural complement to Williams' short-area game. The ceiling is genuinely capped by the 7.7 aDOT profile–he needs 80-plus targets to matter in fantasy and won't produce many explosive plays–but in a PPR format with a fully healthy Daniels throwing him the ball, he could be a viable weekly WR3 if he plays starter’s snaps. Keep an eye on Washington’s camp competition in the slot.

When Kittle is healthy, there's an argument he's the most complete tight end in the game. His ESPN OVERALL score (100th percentile) and PFF pass route grade (100th percentile) were both the best in the entire TE sample last season—and this was in only 10 games before a torn Achilles ended his year. In those 10 games, he averaged 12.8 points per game, TE2 on a per-game basis. In 2024, he was the overall TE1 at 13.9 per game over 14 games. His YPRR (2.15, 95th percentile) and his contested catch rate (84.6%, 92nd percentile) confirm that he's an elite route runner and a physical mismatch when the ball is in the air. The 49ers added Mike Evans and Christian Kirk to replace Jauan Jennings, and Brock Purdy's 98th percentile CPOE should give us plenty of confidence that Kittle will continue to receive quality targets. The torn Achilles recovery is the entire story. He could miss the start of the season, and the timeline matters enormously at his current TE10 ADP—a price that gives you significant upside if he plays 13-plus games and a frustrating experience if he misses the first month and/or the injury lingers deep into the season. Draft him knowing you'll need a streaming plan for the early weeks, and that you're paying a discounted price on one of the best players at the position when he's right. And he might be right by the fantasy playoffs.

Pitts finally delivered on a fraction of his draft pedigree in 2025, finishing as the overall TE2 with 88 receptions, 928 yards, and five touchdowns on 114 targets. The PFF metrics confirm the underlying talent is real: 86th-percentile route grade and 83rd-percentile YPRR among qualified tight ends. The ESPN receiver scores tell a more nuanced story—49th percentile in OPEN, 71st percentile OVERALL—suggesting that Pitts wins through size and athleticism rather than pure separation, which aligns with the trajectory of his career. The concern is the volatility that shadowed him even in a TE2 season: only six of 16 games went over 10 points, and five went under five. Both Bijan Robinson and Drake London will continue to act as a volume ceiling. In fact, Pitts’s scoring output doubled in the five games that London missed (7.4 vs. 15.5). Pitts is going as the TE7, which reflects the 2025 output without fully pricing in the inconsistency. He's a legitimate every-week starter who will frustrate you in the weeks when the touchdowns don't come.

Kelce remains one of the most reliable tight ends in the league, which is a strange thing to say about a 36-year-old, but the numbers keep showing up. He's finished TE4 and TE6 the last two seasons–TE7 and TE8 on a per-game basis–while playing 33 of 34 games. His ESPN OPEN score (87th percentile) says he's still getting free in coverage, his PFF route grade (73rd percentile) is strong, and the YAC (72nd percentile) shows he's still functional as a run-after-catch option. The Chiefs' offense has evolved, with Rashee Rice healthy, Xavier Worthy as a genuine vertical threat, and Kenneth Walker replacing Isiah Pacheco at running back. Whether Kelce retains the same volume in a more balanced attack is the open question. He's going as the TE12, and two straight years of TE7-8 per game production for a player available in the double-digit rounds is reasonable value even if the ceiling is limited at this point in his career.

Andrews' 2025 was one of the more puzzling statistical profiles at the position. He finished TE16 overall and TE23 per game at just 6.5 points per game, and ten of 16 games went under five points. And yet his ESPN OPEN score was 100th percentile, the best in the entire TE sample, meaning he was getting free against coverage at an elite rate. The disconnect traces directly to role and opportunity. Isaiah Likely's presence absorbed significant target share, Andrews never established a consistent volume baseline, and his YAC per reception (2nd percentile) tells you his role was limited to short catches with minimal room to operate after the catch. His 40th-percentile YPRR is average, and with Likely gone and Andrews as the unquestioned TE1 in Baltimore's offense, the target share could climb significantly. In the four games over the last two seasons that Andrews has played without Likely in the lineup, he has averaged an 81% snap share, 3.5 receptions, 42 yards, and 0.75 touchdowns. The 11th-round ADP is appealing for a player who finished TE5 and TE7 per game in 2024. At 31, he should still have a couple of good seasons left as tight ends tend to age gracefully. He's one of the better value plays at the position.

Warren's rookie numbers present an interesting puzzle. He finished TE7 overall in his first NFL season but only TE11 on a per-game basis at 9.1 points per game, and his ESPN receiver scores were near the bottom of the tight end sample—9th percentile in OPEN score and 8th percentile OVERALL—suggesting he struggled to consistently create separation against NFL coverage. At the same time, his PFF metrics told a different story: 75th percentile in YPRR and an 88th percentile YAC per reception, indicating that when he did get the ball, he did real damage. The 68th percentile route grade for a rookie is respectable and suggests the foundation is there for improvement. He also runs a high percentage of routes from the slot (68th percentile), which helps. The disconnect between the ESPN and the PFF productivity metrics isn't unusual for a rookie TE learning to navigate NFL coverage—the YPRR and YAC numbers suggest the tools are real.

Hockenson's first fully healthy season since his ACL tear was disappointing on every level. He finished TE23 overall at 5.8 points per game with 51 receptions for 438 yards and three touchdowns on 64 targets in 15 games, which was a far cry from the elite TE1 production he posted in 2023 before the injury. The PFF metrics are unflattering across the board: a 36th-percentile route grade, an 18th-percentile YPRR, and a 5.2 average depth of target that confirms his role was reduced to short looks. The ESPN OPEN score (60th percentile) is at least functional, suggesting he was getting some separation, but the OVERALL score (30th percentile) reflects what the volume and efficiency numbers say–he wasn't getting the looks or making enough of them when he did. The interesting wrinkle for 2026 is the QB change. Kyler Murray replaces J.J. McCarthy, bringing a mobile, off-script element that often benefits tight ends through broken plays and second-reaction scrambles. Jauan Jennings adds another reliable target underneath, which might compress Hockenson's middle-of-the-field role. He's going as a TE2 in the late rounds, and the upside is real if the Murray-Hockenson connection clicks and his role expands. The floor is another disappointing season if the underlying efficiency numbers don't improve.

Johnson had the best season of his career in 2025, finishing TE10 overall at 8.5 points per game, which was a significant jump from his TE23 finish in 2024. He caught 77 of 102 targets for 889 yards and three touchdowns, with the volume reflecting both his expanded role and the relatively thin Saints' receiving corps around Tyler Shough. The ESPN scores back up the production: 83rd percentile OPEN score, 67th percentile OVERALL. His PFF YPRR (79th percentile) and slot rate (84th percentile) confirm what he is—a reliable middle-of-the-field target. The Saints drafted Jordyn Tyson, who immediately becomes a legitimate weapon opposite Chris Olave and should command meaningful target share. That's the entire question for Johnson's 2026: how much of the volume that drove his TE10 finish gets reallocated to Tyson and the established receivers, and how much stays in the middle of the field. He's going as a TE2 in the late rounds, and that price assumes some target share regression with the upgraded WR room. If Shough leans on Johnson as the security blanket and the touchdowns regress positively from three, there's a TE1 ceiling here. If Tyson eats into the targets that were going to Johnson, he settles back into a low-end TE2.

Henry is one of the better values at the position given his current ADP. He's finished TE9 and TE12 the last two seasons while catching 60 passes for 768 yards and seven touchdowns last year. His ESPN OPEN score (87th percentile), his PFF route grade (75th percentile) and his YPRR (68th percentile) are all legitimately good, and his 8.8 per-game average last season was better than several tight ends going two rounds ahead of him. The departure of Austin Hooper clears the depth chart, making Henry the unquestioned primary tight end option in an offense that is actively improving. Drake Maye's 100th percentile CPOE and 100th percentile EPA last season suggest he's developing into one of the better young passers in the league, and if A.J. Brown arrives, the attention that the receiver commands will create cleaner opportunities underneath for Henry. At a TE20 ADP–mid-to-late-round range–for a player at the end of his prime still delivering consistent TE9-to-TE12 production, Henry is the kind of late-round value that can provide baseline production, allowing managers to load up on talent elsewhere.

Kincaid's per-game profile in 2025 was legitimately elite. In 11 games, he averaged 9.1 points while posting a 100th-percentile YPRR (2.79) and 95th-percentile PFF route grade–the best YPRR in the entire tight end sample. His ESPN OVERALL score (98th percentile) and OPEN score (95th percentile) are both at the top of the position. When Kincaid was on the field with Josh Allen, he was one of the most productive receiving tight ends in the league. The rub is the 12 games in 2025 and 13 in 2024–he hasn't yet strung together a full healthy season, and the Bills' offense is a little more crowded with D.J. Moore now in the room alongside Khalil Shakir. Kincaid is going as the TE13, and that price represents a bet on a player with the efficiency markers of a top-five tight end who hasn’t recently been able to stay healthy long enough to prove it over a full year. If Kincaid plays 15-plus games in 2026, his underlying metrics suggest he could run away with a top-10 season. Discount accordingly for the health risk, but don't lose sight of the fact that the production when healthy has been exceptional.

Likely spent last year as the clear second tight end in Baltimore behind Mark Andrews, and his 34 targets in 13 games reflects his role, not his ability. His ESPN OPEN score (68th percentile) and contested catch rate (79th percentile) both point to a functional receiver, and in 2024, when he had more opportunity in Baltimore, he finished TE16 overall at 6.5 points per game. Now he heads to New York to reunite with John Harbaugh as the projected TE1 in a Giants offense built around Jaxson Dart. Malik Nabers will command the lion's share of the attention, but the TE role in Dart's operation should generate consistent underneath looks. The competition with Theo Johnson is worth monitoring; Johnson finished TE15 overall in 2025 and is an athletic player in his own right, though his route grade (57th percentile) and YPRR (44th percentile) suggest he's not a polished route runner yet. Likely's PFF route grade (17th percentile) isn't reassuring either, so this is a volume-over-efficiency play at a position where the volume is genuine, assuming he wins the job. One encouraging note: In the 19 career games where he’s played at least 40 snaps, he has averaged 3.5-42-0.53, or 9.1 fantasy points per game, which are low-end TE1 numbers. He's going around TE15, which is a fair-to-aggressive price for a player moving into his first true TE1 role with an ascending quarterback. The Giants will throw to the tight end—the question is whether it's mostly Likely or split more evenly than the market expects.

Otton is one of the more interesting late-round bets at the position thanks to a specific and well-documented opportunity profile. He finished TE30 overall in 2025 at just 4.9 points per game—a meaningful step back from his TE13 finish in 2024—largely because of touchdown regression. He caught 59 of 80 targets for 572 yards but scored just one touchdown, which torpedoed what would have otherwise been a productive volume season. The underlying metrics are mixed: a 75th-percentile ESPN OPEN score suggests he gets open at a reasonable rate, but his PFF route grade (16th percentile) and YPRR (24th percentile) point to inefficiency on a per-snap basis. His slot rate (81st percentile) and short 5.1 average depth of target frame him as an underneath option who profits from volume rather than from creating big plays. The reason he matters in 2026 is Mike Evans' departure. In the 12 games Evans has missed over the last two seasons, Otton has averaged 6.6 targets, 4.8 catches, 44 yards, and 0.25 touchdowns per game, which works out to 8.4 fantasy points per game, or midrange TE2 numbers. Evans wasn't just any departing receiver; he was Tampa's primary red zone threat, and the touchdowns that flowed through him should redistribute meaningfully. Chris Godwin returns from injury, Emeka Egbuka takes on a larger role, and Jalen McMillan is back, but none of those three is a Mike Evans-level red zone presence. Otton, at 6'5", is the most logical beneficiary in the end zone. He's going as a TE3 in the late rounds, and the path to a TE15 or better finish is genuinely there. He’s a solid late-round flier with positive regression baked in.

Strange is a later-round dart throw with a stronger underlying case than his overall finish suggests. He dealt with injuries that wiped out a large part of his 2025 season. He appeared in just 11 games and was largely absent from Week 6 through Week 11, but from Week 12 on, he averaged 8.4 points per game, good for the TE8 in that span. The PFF metrics confirm the talent is real: 77th-percentile route grade, 71st-percentile YPRR, and an 92nd-percentile avoided tackle rate that shows genuine ability to create after the catch. His ESPN OPEN score (68th percentile) is solid, and the YAC per reception (67th percentile) is above average as well.

Washington is one of the more interesting athletic profiles at the position–6'7" with a 96th-percentile speed score, the kind of physical archetype that should translate into a featured receiving role at some point in his NFL career. The 2025 numbers don't yet reflect that potential: he averaged 3.6 points per game on just 43 targets. But the advanced metrics tell a more intriguing story. His YPRR (85th percentile), YAC per reception (97th percentile), and avoided tackle rate (98th percentile) are all elite–when Washington gets the ball, he creates after the catch better than nearly any TE in the league. The drop rate (7th percentile) is a real concern that he'll need to address. Jonnu Smith's departure clears the secondary TE role, and even with Pat Freiermuth firmly entrenched as the lead, Washington should see more snaps and more route opportunities. The HC Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers combination should lean slightly more pass-heavy than recent Steelers offenses, and 12-personnel sets that feature both tight ends are likely to be a meaningful component of the playbook. He's a deep-league dart throw with legitimate athletic upside if the volume materializes.

Barner quietly put together one of the better Year 2 leaps at the position, jumping from 3.2 points per game as a rookie to a TE13 finish at 7.4 points per game in 2025. The six touchdowns drove most of the production, but he caught 52 of 64 targets for a solid 519 yards in 17 games. The PFF underlying metrics are middling rather than impressive (69th percentile route grade, 53rd percentile YPRR), but his ESPN OVERALL score (77th percentile) is genuinely good, and his contested catch rate (78th percentile) and avoided tackle rate (73rd percentile) suggest he's a solid receiver for an in-line tight end. The 3rd percentile slot rate confirms what the eye test says: Barner is a true Y-TE, lined up tight to the formation, doing damage near the line of scrimmage rather than streaking down the seams. That role profile gives him a touchdown-dependent fantasy ceiling, and the six TDs from last year may not be entirely repeatable, though he’s the biggest target that Sam Darnold has. He's going as a TE2 in deeper formats, and he's a fine late-round option for managers who want a player with weekly TE1 upside attached to red zone usage—just don't expect significant volume growth.

Helm's rookie year wasn't statistically impressive–4.4 points per game and a TE33 finish despite playing 16 games–but the underlying picture is a developmental piece who showed enough to warrant attention in Year 2. His PFF route grade (61st percentile) and YPRR (61st percentile) were respectable for a rookie, and his contested catch rate (70th percentile) suggests he can come down with the ball when challenged. The ESPN scores aren't where you'd hope—29th percentile in OPEN, 41st percentile in OVERALL. With Chigoziem Okonkwo gone, the TE1 role in Tennessee is Helm's to lose, and the opportunity matters enormously for a player who saw just 55 targets in his debut season. Cam Ward's own development is the variable that will determine whether Helm's expanded role translates into fantasy production.