Players most likely to score from long distance once they have the ball with space.
Below you'll find a handy listing of players with huge potential for breaking the big play.
The below ranking is not a formal Cheat Sheet. But, in some ways, it's just as valuable.
Offensive scheme and/or open field ability (speed, moves, acceleration) limit some player's quick-strike status. Also, keep in mind this analysis is based on potential. As Doug Flutie says, "potential can be dangerous and overrated in sports." This analysis assumes a player has the football in his hands and is in a situation to make something happen.
Next to each player, you'll find his Quick Strike Rating (QSR). The QSR is part judgement and part Measurement (arm strength, 40-speed, etc.). The QSR is only relative within a position. It should not be used to compare players of different positions.
If your league doesn't reward for long distance scores, it's still a good idea to become very familiar with everyone below. If you're looking for a player with breakout potential, the ability to score from long distance never hurts.
An example of how important Quick Strike can be...
Back in 2002, Clinton Portis had a huge breakout seasons. Yet, he was selected late in many drafts that year. Looking at his physical skills, the wise owner grabbed Portis in the mid-rounds in 2002 and won big. While Portis was a hit-or-miss pick before the 2002 season, his upside was outstanding and it was reflected in his Quick Strike Rating.
In 2009, Chris Johnson was a huge value pick during the draft and his Quick Strike Rating refelected his upside.
Chances are this year's top breakout player is high on a list below.
If you're struggling with a 'who should I draft' or 'who should I pickup' decision this season, consult this list. Everything else being equal -- Go for the Play Maker!
| QB1 | Lamar Jackson
Draft Note by John Paulsen
In 2024, Jackson was historically dominant—the overall QB1 at 25.5 points per game with 13 of 16 games over 20 points and zero games below 10. Then 2025 happened. Jackson missed five games, finished QB20 overall, and cratered in the second half of the season, averaging just 9.8 points per game after the midway point compared to 22.6 before it. The rushing, typically his fantasy floor, fell to 27.6 yards per start with just two rushing touchdowns—a fraction of his usual production. His efficiency slipped to the 60th percentile in EPA per dropback, still respectable but a far cry from the MVP-caliber play of the prior season. The offseason brings change. Isaiah Likely is gone, and while Mark Andrews is back, the Ravens are banking on rookie tight ends Ja'Kobi Lane and Elijah Sarratt to fill the void alongside him. New offensive coordinator Declan Doyle takes over play-calling duties. Zay Flowers remains a legitimate number-one receiver, but the overall supporting cast feels thinner than it was a year ago and he has missed 18% of his games in the last five seasons. Jackson is going as the QB2 with an overall ADP in the middle of the fifth round. The talent is undeniable—when healthy, Jackson has as high a ceiling as anyone in fantasy. But the second-half collapse, the reduced rushing, and a transitional roster make QB2 a price that carries more risk than it has in years.
| BAL | 467 |
| QB2 | Malik Willis
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Willis is one of the most fascinating quarterback values in 2026 drafts. After two years of flashing elite rushing ability and surprising passing chops in limited action with the Packers, Willis lands in Miami as the projected starter. In his lone start last season (Week 17), he rushed for 127 yards and two touchdowns while throwing for 422 yards and three scores, resulting in a 31.5-point fantasy explosion. His EPA per dropback and CPOE were off the charts, though on just 35 pass attempts, which is far too small a sample to draw any real conclusions about his passing. What we can draw conclusions from is the rushing. Willis has legitimate dual-threat ability, and that kind of floor is what makes backup-turned-starter quarterbacks fantasy-relevant. In his three starts in the last two seasons for the Packers, he scored 13.0, 25.4, and 31.5. Throw in another 13.2 in relief while playing 64% of the snaps, and there is reason for optimism about Willis’s prospects as a starter. On the other hand, he no longer has Matt LaFleur calling plays or the Packers' weapons at his disposal. Miami's receiver room is in serious flux—Chris Bell, Caleb Douglas, Malik Washington, Greg Dulcich, and free agent additions Jalen Tolbert and Tutu Atwell are a far cry from a proven group. Willis is going as a low-end QB2, and at that price, the rushing upside alone makes him a worthwhile pick. If the passing translates to a full season and even one or two of those receivers emerge, he could be this year's breakout quarterback. The Dolphins are likely to trail for most of the season, so he could be the new Blake Bortles–another “garbage time hero.”
| MIA | 467 |
| QB3 | Josh Allen
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Allen is the safest pick at the quarterback position, and it's not particularly close. He's finished QB1 and QB2 the last two seasons while playing all 34 games, and his consistency is remarkable—he's scored 20-plus fantasy points in 59% of games over that stretch with only four games below 10. His 2025 efficiency was elite: 93rd percentile in EPA per dropback and 87th percentile in CPOE, and the rushing remains the league's best fantasy cheat code at the position. Allen averaged 37.4 rushing yards per start with 14 rushing touchdowns last season. That's a RB2 season's worth of rushing touchdowns on top of 25 passing touchdowns, and it’s his third consecutive season with at least 12 rushing touchdowns. The Bills added D.J. Moore to a receiving corps that already includes Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid, giving Allen arguably his deepest set of pass-catchers since Stefon Diggs was in Buffalo. He's going as the QB1 off the board with an overall ADP around pick 30, and that's the right price. The only question is whether you want to spend that draft capital on a quarterback when you could wait and get a value QB significantly later. But if you want the highest floor and the highest ceiling at the position, Allen is the pick. If the draft gets weird and the available options in the third round aren’t too appealing, then Allen is an extremely safe pick.
| BUF | 454 |
| QB4 | Matthew Stafford
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Stafford's 2025 season was a remarkable reversal. After a miserable 2024 in which he finished QB18 overall—QB26 on a per-game basis—with seven games under 10 fantasy points, he turned around and posted the QB3 finish at 20.2 points per game, with nine games over 20 and just one below 10. This, after an offseason where all we heard was that he had a balky back. The 46 passing touchdowns were the most in the NFL and his EPA per dropback (91st percentile) was elite. Puka Nacua and Davante Adams give him one of the best receiver duos in the league, and Terrance Ferguson is emerging as a weapon at tight end. The catch is everything you'd expect from a 38-year-old pocket passer with zero rushing upside (1.3 yards per start). Stafford is entirely touchdown-dependent, and 46 TDs in a season is not a sustainable baseline. A regression to the mid-30s is the realistic expectation, which would shave several points per game off his 2025 average. He's going as a high-end QB2, which is a fair price given the talent around him, but not a bargain given that you're projecting off a career-outlier touchdown total. Draft him as a reliable QB2 with a chance to finish as a low-end QB1.
| LAR | 447 |
| QB5 | Dak Prescott
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Prescott had a strong bounce-back season in 2025, finishing QB5 at 19.6 points per game after an injury-shortened QB31 the year before. His efficiency was excellent—89th percentile in EPA per dropback and 76th percentile in CPOE—and he was remarkably steady, averaging 19.2 points per game in the first half and 20.0 in the second. Nine of 16 games went over 20 points, and he only dipped below 10 twice. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens give him two legitimate weapons on the outside, Jake Ferguson is a reliable tight end, and Brian Schottenheimer runs a pass-heavy offense that keeps Prescott in high-volume situations all season. The only structural concern is the lack of rushing—11.1 yards per start and two touchdowns last year—which makes him entirely dependent on passing volume and touchdown rate, both of which can fluctuate. He's going as a midrange QB1 for a player who finished QB5 last year and QB4 in 2023. The Cowboys are going to throw the football, and when they do, he's likely to be efficient.
| DAL | 447 |
| QB6 | Jared Goff
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Goff finished QB7 and QB11 the last two seasons, yet he's going as the QB16 off the board. That's a massive disconnect. He threw for 4,564 yards and 34 touchdowns last season with an 82nd percentile EPA per dropback and 71st percentile CPOE—both strong marks for a quarterback in one of the league's best offenses. New offensive coordinator Drew Petzing introduces some uncertainty, but Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and an elite offensive line are all still in place. The concern, as always, is that Goff offers nothing as a runner (3.1 rush yards per start), so he's entirely volume- and touchdown-dependent, and his well-documented home/road splits remain a factor. Over the last three seasons, he has averaged 20.8 fantasy points per game at home versus 15.6 on the road, but that predictability can be useful. The Jared Goff Gambit is once again viable: Draft Goff as your QB1, start him in home games and favorable road matchups, and stream/committee the position during his tougher away games. That approach can produce midrange QB1 numbers at a midrange QB2 price.
| DET | 447 |
| QB7 | Patrick Mahomes
Draft Note by John Paulsen
In each of the past two seasons, Mahomes has finished QB10 in total points, but he was the QB4 on a per-game basis last year after missing a couple of games. His CPOE (47th percentile) suggests the pinpoint accuracy isn't always there, but his EPA per dropback (84th percentile) and overall play-making ability keep him firmly in the QB1 conversation. The separator last year was his rushing. He has always been a threat to run–he has six straight seasons with 307+ yards as a runner–but as a 30-year-old, Mahomes set career-highs in rushing yards (422), and touchdowns (5). Rashee Rice is an alpha, and Xavier Worthy is fully healthy after a shaky 2025, health-wise. The Chiefs signed Kenneth Walker to replace Isiah Pacheco in the backfield. Mahomes is going off the board as a low-end QB1 and while his days of being a consensus top-three pick appear to be over, getting a quarterback with midrange QB1 upside outside the top 10 at the position is good value.
| KC | 441 |
| QB8 | Jameis Winston | NYG | 441 |
| QB9 | Kirk Cousins | LV | 428 |
| QB10 | Joe Burrow
Draft Note by John Paulsen
When Burrow is on the field, he's one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in football. He finished QB3 in 2024 at 22.5 points per game—his second top-four finish in three seasons—and was dominant down the stretch, averaging 26.4 points per game in the second half. His 2025 was derailed by injury yet again: he played just seven games, though his accuracy upon return was outstanding—91st percentile in CPOE and 73rd percentile in EPA per dropback. In the five games after coming back from his midseason absence (Weeks 13–17), he averaged 19.5 points per game, suggesting the arm talent was still very much intact. The problem is that the arm talent has never been the question. Burrow has missed 16 games over the last three seasons, and that kind of volatility is difficult to build a roster around, especially at a QB3 ADP. The rushing offers almost nothing—5.1 yards per game last season, 11.8 in 2024, 8.8 in 2023—so he's mostly pass-dependent, which makes him more vulnerable to bad game scripts and low-volume weeks than the dual-threat quarterbacks going around him. On the other hand, Ja'Marr Chase is the best receiver in fantasy football, Tee Higgins gives him an elite second option, and the Bengals' defense has a way of keeping Burrow in high-volume passing situations. At QB3, the ceiling is there—he's finished top four twice in four full seasons—but you're paying a premium that doesn't account for the very real chance he misses a month.
| CIN | 421 |
| QB11 | Mitch Trubisky | TEN | 401 |
| QB12 | Kyler Murray
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Murray gets a fresh start in Minnesota with one of the best offensive minds in football in Kevin O'Connell, and a supporting cast that blows away anything he had in Arizona. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones combine to form one of the deepest receiving groups in the league, and O'Connell has proven he can build an offense around his quarterback's strengths. From 2019 to 2024, Murray either finished as a QB1 or averaged QB1 numbers on a per-game basis in every season he played—including 2024, when he finished QB11 overall and QB12 per game with a far more limited cast in Arizona. His 2025 efficiency metrics—64th percentile in EPA per dropback and 40th percentile in CPOE—aren't eye-popping, but those came in just five starts before injury shut him down. The rushing remains elite for fantasy purposes: Murray averaged 35.0 yards per start on the ground last season, and that kind of dual-threat ability in O'Connell's system is a dangerous combination. The elephant in the room is durability. Murray has missed an average of 6.8 games per season over the last four years, and that's not a blip, it's a pattern. When he's on the field, he's a QB1. The problem is he hasn't played a full season since 2021. He's going as a midrange QB2, which means the market is almost entirely pricing in the injury risk. If he plays 14+ games with these weapons and this play-caller, he's a top-eight quarterback. That's significant upside at a QB2 price, but you'll want a viable backup plan on your roster.
| MIN | 401 |
| QB13 | Sam Darnold
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Darnold's fantasy career has been a wild ride. He finished QB8 in 2024 with Minnesota—one of the bigger surprises of the fantasy season—and promptly followed it with a QB14 overall finish in Seattle that translates to just QB25 on a per-game basis. The regression was steep: he averaged 17.2 points per game in the first half of 2025 before cratering to 11.2 after the midpoint, finishing with six games below 10 points. The interceptions were a real problem—14 on the season—which undercut what was otherwise genuinely accurate play (93rd percentile in CPOE) and solid efficiency (80th percentile in EPA per dropback). He also brings almost nothing on the ground, averaging 6.4 rushing yards per start with zero rushing touchdowns. The roster in Seattle has turned over at running back—Kenneth Walker is gone, replaced by rookie Jadarian Price—but the passing game has some upside. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a legitimate number-one, and Rashid Shaheed should make more of an impact in his second year in the offense. Cooper Kupp adds a reliable veteran presence. Whether this group is enough to keep Darnold out of double-digit-interception territory again is the real question. Darnold is going as a low-end QB2, and that's about right. He's a frustrating player to roster—flashes of genuine quality surrounded by stretches of turnover-prone football that will lose you weeks.
| SEA | 401 |
| QB14 | Geno Smith
Draft Note by John Paulsen
2026 Geno Smith could be one of fantasy's most reliable archetypes: the quarterback on a bad team who throws a lot because his team trails constantly. He's going back to New York with a cast that includes Garrett Wilson, Adonai Mitchell, and rookie additions Omar Cooper Jr. and Kenyon Sadiq–a receiver room that should generate weekly production when the targets are there. The Jets have 99 vacated WR targets (37.2% of WR volume), the defense figures to struggle, and the offense will spend large portions of games in catch-up mode. That's the “garbage-time hero” profile in its purest form. The concern is 2025, which was a disaster in Las Vegas–QB23 overall, QB36 per game, 11.6 points per game, eight games under 10 points, and 17 interceptions. The 13th-percentile EPA per dropback is alarming for a player being considered as a potential streaming option. His 2024 in Seattle (QB15, 15.0 PPG) is the counterpoint—he can still function in the right environment. The Jets are not Seattle, but they may be a better situation than Las Vegas was last season.
| NYJ | 395 |
| QB15 | Baker Mayfield
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Mayfield's 2025 was a rude correction after a career year in 2024. He went from a QB5 finish at 21.5 points per game to QB12 overall but just QB18 on a per-game basis at 16.2 points per game—a drop of over five points per game. The efficiency numbers reflected the decline: 56th percentile in EPA per dropback and 27th percentile in CPOE, a far cry from the guy who threw for 41 touchdowns and carried fantasy rosters two seasons ago. He faded as the year wore on, averaging 17.6 points in the first half and 14.8 in the second, with a pair of sub-5-point clunkers mixed in along the way. Now he loses Mike Evans, his most reliable weapon over the past two seasons, and that's a real concern. The hope is that Chris Godwin's return to full health, Jalen McMillan coming back from his own injury, and Emeka Egbuka can collectively absorb Evans' vacated targets and red-zone presence. That's a lot of "ifs" for a quarterback whose accuracy was already slipping. Cade Otton provides a steady check-down option at tight end, and Mayfield's legs (23.0 rush yards per start) offer a modest floor. The upside is a top-10 finish if the receiving corps gels. The downside is a QB2 with limited ceiling if the Evans-sized hole doesn't get filled. At the cost of a low-end QB2, the risk-reward is palatable, but he's more of a QB2 with upside than a reliable starter.
| TB | 395 |
| QB16 | Justin Fields | KC | 395 |
| QB17 | Daniel Jones
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Jones was one of the biggest surprises of the 2025 season. After a rough 2024 split between two stops, he landed in Indianapolis and proceeded to play some of the most efficient football of his career—87th percentile in EPA per dropback and 78th percentile in CPOE, both strong marks. He averaged 17.4 points per game in 13 appearances, with five of those finishing over 20 points and only one below 10. The first half of the year was particularly strong at 19.6 points per game. He was the fantasy QB7 through Week 13 (!!!), then tore his Achilles in Week 14, and that's where the 2026 story gets complicated. Jones should be ready for Week 1 according to the team's projections, but a torn Achilles at 28 typically brings reduced mobility that takes more than one offseason to fully recover from—and Jones' rushing contribution (12.8 yards per start, five rushing touchdowns) was part of what made him a viable streaming option last year. Losing Michael Pittman is significant, though the Colts re-signed Alec Pierce and have Josh Downs as a potential breakout in the slot. Tyler Warren enters his second NFL season with a full offseason of development. Jonathan Taylor in the backfield continues to take some of the pressure off the passing game. Jones is going as a low-end QB2, and the price is right for the production level he showed before the injury. The key questions—how cleanly does he recover, and does a compromised version of Jones still provide the rushing upside that drove his 2025 value—won't be answered until training camp. Draft him as a streaming QB2 with upside rather than a week-to-week starter.
| IND | 395 |
| QB18 | Trevor Lawrence
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Lawrence has quietly put together a strong case as one of the most undervalued quarterbacks at his price point. After back-to-back injury-shortened seasons, he returned healthy in 2025 and finished QB4 overall at 19.7 points per game—and the second-half surge was striking, improving from 16.6 points per game before the midpoint to 22.7 after it. The rushing is underrated: Lawrence averaged 21.6 yards per start with nine rushing touchdowns last season, a number that rivals some of the best dual-threat weeks at the position. His accuracy still lags—29th percentile in CPOE—but the EPA per dropback (69th percentile) and the touchdown production suggest he makes enough plays where it counts. The Jaguars lost Travis Etienne but added Chris Rodriguez to help carry the backfield load, and it's Year 2 with Liam Coen, who is making the case that he’s one of the best offensive minds in the league. The receiving corps features Brian Thomas Jr. as a possible WR1, Jakobi Meyers as a reliable slot option, the efficient Parker Washington, and Travis Hunter, who has the talent to produce, provided he gets enough run on offense. Lawrence is going as a midrange QB1, and given his QB4 finish last year and the rushing floor he provides, that price looks fair. If the second-year Coen offense unlocks another level, there's top-five upside here once again.
| JAX | 395 |
| QB19 | Aaron Rodgers
Draft Note by John Paulsen
The reunion with Mike McCarthy and the Pittsburgh supporting cast gives Rodgers his most familiar situation since Green Bay, but the efficiency metrics from his first two years back haven't justified much more than a streaming quarterback. He's finished QB16 and QB18 overall in back-to-back seasons at 14.5 and 13.9 points per game–QB23 and QB27 on a per-game basis–and his advanced metrics reflect exactly what those numbers suggest: 44th percentile in both EPA per dropback and CPOE, dead average efficiency from a player who was once elite. Pittsburgh has 102 vacated WR targets (44.3% of WR volume), and pairing DK Metcalf with Michael Pittman and rookie Germie Bernard gives Rodgers a decent set of options to throw to. McCarthy's system historically generates passing volume, and if the Steelers' offense leans into Rodgers' arm more than the previous regime, there's a path to high-end QB2 production, though I’m not holding my breath.
| PIT | 395 |
| QB20 | Justin Herbert
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Herbert has settled into low-end QB1 territory, finishing QB13 and QB9 the last two seasons. His passing efficiency was middling last year—53rd percentile in EPA per dropback, 60th percentile in CPOE—but the big story was his legs. Herbert rushed for a career-high 498 yards (31.1 per game) and two touchdowns, and wants to keep running. That's meaningful for his fantasy outlook because the rushing floor is what separates the elite fantasy quarterbacks from the pack. The Chargers have a solid receiving corps with Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and second-year players Tre Harris and Oronde Gadsden, and they added Brenan Thompson in this year's draft and David Njoku late in free agency. Mike McDaniel will be calling the plays, and has said that he would like Herbert to get the ball out more quickly and not have so much on his shoulders. Reading between the lines, this sounds like less running to me, but Herbert will still need to scramble and will pick his spots to use his legs. Where I think McDaniel can really help is Herbert’s efficiency. Herbert averaged 7.3 yards per attempt last season and has a career 7.2 YPA. McDaniel took over the Dolphins’ offense in 2022 and took Tua Tagovailoa from a career-to-date 6.6 YPA to 8.9 YPA in his first season. I’m not expecting that sort of leap for Herbert, but he could be a lot more productive as a passer under McDaniel, and that could offset a loss of rushing production.
| LAC | 388 |
| QB21 | Jordan Love
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Love's 2025 season was a tale of two stories. On the surface, he finished QB13 with a QB21 per-game average—solid, but not great. But Love left three games early due to injury (Weeks 11, 12, and 16), and when those are removed, his per-game average jumps to 17.2 points, or about QB14 on a per-game basis. More importantly, his efficiency metrics were outstanding: 98th percentile in EPA per dropback and 96th percentile in CPOE, both top marks in the league. The talent and the efficiency are clearly there—the question is whether the Packers will let Love cook, since it’s his passing volume that’s holding him back, not his arm. A healthy Christian Watson and Jayden Reed, the emerging Matthew Golden and Savion Williams, and an elite Tucker Kraft returning from an ACL tear give Love plenty of weapons. If Green Bay increases the pass rate even slightly and Love stays healthy, the gap between his efficiency and his fantasy output should close in a hurry.
| GB | 381 |
| QB22 | Tua Tagovailoa | ATL | 375 |
| QB23 | Jalen Hurts
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Hurts has been one of the most bankable fantasy quarterbacks in football, finishing QB6 and QB7 the last two seasons while playing nearly every game. His per-game average dipped from 21.0 to 18.7 points last year, but the rushing production continued to anchor his floor—27.2 yards per start with eight rushing touchdowns, giving him RB-caliber value on the ground alone. His accuracy was strong (82nd percentile in CPOE) and the efficiency was solid (67th percentile in EPA per dropback), though the second half of last season was uneven, as he averaged 21.7 points in the first eight games and 15.7 the rest of the way. The big question heading into 2026 is the receiving corps. If A.J. Brown is traded as expected, Hurts loses his most dangerous downfield weapon. However, the Eagles moved up in the first round to nab Makai Lemon and added Dontayvion Wicks and Hollywood Brown. DeVonta Smith is more than capable of stepping into the WR1 role and Dallas Goedert provides a reliable safety valve. Saquon Barkley's presence in the backfield also takes pressure off the passing game entirely. Despite the imminent loss of Brown, Hurts once again looks like a rock-solid QB1.
| PHI | 375 |
| QB24 | Mac Jones | SF | 368 |
| QB25 | Brock Purdy
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Purdy is one of my favorite values at the position. He was the QB24 last season, but he only played eight games—and in those eight games, he was the overall QB2 on a per-game basis at 21.5 points per game. He closed the season on a tear, posting 26.2, 30.9, and 36.9 fantasy points in his final three games. His efficiency metrics were elite: 96th percentile in EPA per dropback and 98th percentile in CPOE among 45 qualified passers. The 49ers lost Jauan Jennings but added Mike Evans and Christian Kirk, and Ricky Pearsall is back for a full season. George Kittle is recovering from a torn Achilles and the hope is that he'll be ready for Week 1. Christian McCaffrey rounds out a receiving corps that should give Purdy plenty to work with. He’s going off the board as a high-end QB2, and that's a steal for a quarterback who has finished QB6 and QB9 on a per-game basis in his last two healthy seasons and was the QB2 per game last year. Durability is the only real concern, but as a ninth-round pick, it’s easy to back him up with another quality passer in the next few rounds and run with a committee.
| SF | 362 |
| QB26 | Mason Rudolph | PIT | 362 |
| QB27 | Deshaun Watson | CLE | 355 |
| QB28 | Cam Ward
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Ward's rookie season was a struggle by the numbers. He finished QB22 overall but QB40 on a per-game basis at 11.1 points per game, and his EPA per dropback (9th percentile) and CPOE (18th percentile) were among the lowest marks in the league. The saving grace is the trajectory. Ward averaged just 8.3 points per game in the first half of the season and improved to 13.8 in the second half as he got more comfortable with the speed of the NFL game—closing with four straight games of 11 or more points and 15-plus in three of his final four starts. That's not a disaster for a rookie learning on the job with a very thin receiver corps. The weapons around him are meaningfully better heading into Year 2. Carnell Tate was a high-upside draft pick who should slot in as the immediate WR1, Wan'Dale Robinson adds a reliable and experienced slot presence in free agency, and while Calvin Ridley is no longer the force he once was, he provides veteran depth. Gunnar Helm is an interesting breakout candidate at tight end with Chigoziem Okonkwo gone, and Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears form a capable backfield. Ward is going as a low-end QB2/high-end QB3, which is the right price for a young quarterback who's still developing and hasn't shown he can sustain production over a full season. He's a dart throw at the back of drafts with legitimate upside if the second-half arrow keeps pointing up.
| TEN | 335 |
| QB29 | Trey Lance | LAC | 335 |
| QB30 | Teddy Bridgewater | DET | 335 |
| QB31 | Gardner Minshew | ARI | 335 |
| QB32 | Kenny Pickett | CAR | 335 |
| QB33 | Andy Dalton | PHI | 329 |
| QB34 | Joe Flacco | CIN | 303 |
| QB35 | Tyler Huntley | BAL | 303 |
| QB36 | Jarrett Stidham | DEN | 289 |
| QB37 | Tyson Bagent | CHI | 289 |
| QB38 | Jake Browning | TB | 283 |
| QB39 | Davis Mills | HOU | 276 |
| QB40 | C.J. Stroud
Draft Note by John Paulsen
After an outstanding rookie year, Stroud has now finished QB19 and QB21 in back-to-back seasons, and the raw numbers don't tell the whole story. His EPA per dropback (78th percentile) was genuinely solid, suggesting he's playing better football than the fantasy results indicate. The accuracy (49th percentile in CPOE) has room to grow, but the bigger drag on his weekly output is the lack of meaningful rushing contribution—15.3 yards per start with one rushing touchdown isn’t much in today’s fantasy landscape. Nico Collins is a legitimate number-one, but Tank Dell's extended absence and the lack of a second reliable weapon kept Stroud from finding much rhythm as the season progressed, though Jayden Higgins had some moments down the stretch. The path to another QB1 season is real: a healthy Tank Dell returning alongside Collins and the addition of rookie Jayden Higgins would give Stroud three genuine options for the first time in his career. David Montgomery replaces Nick Chubb and could stabilize the backfield, and Dalton Schultz is a competent check-down presence at tight end. Stroud is going as a low-end QB2, and that's where the value proposition lives—if the receiver room fully comes together, he has a top-15 ceiling in an efficient offense. But two straight years of so-so outcomes means the burden of proof is on him to demonstrate he can reliably produce in fantasy without an elite supporting cast surrounding him.
| HOU | 276 |
| QB41 | Tyler Shough
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Shough was one of the more pleasant surprises from the 2025 draft class. After a couple of early cameo appearances, he took over as the Saints' starter and held the job the rest of the way, starting nine games from Week 9 through Week 18 and averaging 17.1 points per game in that stretch—good for the QB9 overall and QB12 on a per-game basis. That's starter-quality production from a rookie quarterback who most people didn't have pegged as a 2025 contributor. His accuracy was encouraging—64th percentile in CPOE—though the overall EPA per dropback (33rd percentile) lagged behind, likely a function of the Saints' limited receiving corps rather than Shough himself, but it’s something to monitor. He also showed enough as a runner to matter in fantasy, averaging 21.9 rushing yards per start with three rushing touchdowns in nine starts. The Saints addressed the biggest hole in the offense by adding Jordyn Tyson to pair with Chris Olave, giving Shough two legitimate perimeter weapons for the first time. Juwan Johnson returns at tight end. It's Year 2 with Kellen Moore calling the plays, and that continuity matters for a young quarterback still learning the nuances of an NFL offense. He's going off the board as a mid- to low-QB2, and while there's real risk that his rookie-year production was the ceiling rather than the floor, the arrow is pointing up. If Tyson and Olave can stay healthy and give Shough consistent targets on the outside, he has the accuracy and the rushing ability to push into low-end QB1 territory. He's a fine QB2 with sneaky upside at his current price.
| NO | 257 |
| QB42 | Marcus Mariota | WAS | 257 |
| QB43 | Sam Howell | DAL | 250 |
| QB44 | Jaxson Dart
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Dart was one of last year's most pleasant surprises. After a couple of brief relief appearances in Weeks 2 and 3, he took over as the Giants' starter in Week 4 and never looked back, averaging 20.1 fantasy points per game in his 12 starts—a top-six pace over the final 15 weeks. The passing efficiency was solid but unspectacular—71st percentile in EPA per dropback and 42nd percentile in CPOE—but it’s the rushing production that’s his super power. Dart averaged 40.6 rushing yards per start with nine rushing touchdowns, giving him the kind of weekly floor that makes dual-threat quarterbacks so valuable in fantasy. The supporting cast has improved significantly heading into Year 2, thanks to the expected return of Malik Nabers and free agent Isaiah Likely joining breakout TE Theo Johnson. Darnell Mooney, Malachi Fields, and Calvin Austin III should provide better depth in the receiver room. The CPOE suggests his accuracy still has room to grow, but as a low-end QB1 off the board, Dart is a strong value for a quarterback who was essentially a top-five producer once he became the full-time starter. One word of warning: Sophomore quarterbacks have a wide range of outcomes.
| NYG | 250 |
| QB45 | Jacoby Brissett
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Brissett was one of the better stories in fantasy football last season once he found his footing. From Week 6 through the end of the year, he averaged 18.9 points per game over 12 starts, which would have ranked among the top eight quarterbacks in fantasy over that stretch. The accuracy was solid at 67th percentile in CPOE, and while the EPA per dropback (36th percentile) suggests room for improvement in overall efficiency, the results spoke for themselves. He's working with a genuinely good supporting cast. Trey McBride is one of the best weapons at tight end in the entire league, Michael Wilson broke out last season and gives him a legitimate No. 2 option, Jeremiyah Love is a dynamic young running back who will keep defenses honest, and Marvin Harrison Jr. remains a player with unrealized upside who could finally put it together. Kendrick Bourne adds a reliable depth option. Brissett is going as a low-end QB2 to not drafted, and the late-season version of him is significantly better than that price. He won't win you a league, but if the Cardinals continue developing their weapons around him, he's a legitimate streaming option with some weeks where he can post QB1 numbers, and is a sneaky third option in two-quarterback formats.
| ARI | 250 |
| QB46 | Drake Maye
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Maye's second-year leap was one of the best stories of the 2025 season. After taking over as a rookie in Week 6 of 2024 and posting QB15 numbers the rest of the way, he exploded into the overall QB2 last season at 21.0 points per game—and he did it with arguably the weakest supporting cast of any top-10 quarterback. His efficiency was staggering: 100th percentile in both EPA per dropback and CPOE among qualified passers, meaning he was literally the most efficient and most accurate passer in football. He threw for 4,394 yards and 31 touchdowns while completing 72 percent of his passes, and he added 28.1 rushing yards per start with four rushing touchdowns on the ground. Perhaps most impressive was the consistency—Maye scored 20-plus points in nine of 16 games and never once dipped below 10.
The Patriots have started to build around him. Romeo Doubs was added as a steady possession receiver, Hunter Henry returns, and if the rumored A.J. Brown trade materializes, this offense goes from interesting to dangerous. Even without Brown, Maye proved last year that he can produce elite fantasy numbers with limited weapons, which means any upgrade to the skill positions is pure upside. He's going as the QB7, and that feels like a significant discount for a quarterback who finished QB2 with the best efficiency metrics in the NFL. If Brown lands in New England, Maye immediately enters the conversation with Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson as a top-three pick at the position. Even without him, the rushing floor and the accuracy make Maye one of the safest bets to outperform his ADP.
| NE | 243 |
| QB47 | Tyrod Taylor | GB | 237 |
| QB48 | Bryce Young
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Young has made incremental progress in each of his three NFL seasons, improving his completion percentage and touchdown rate annually, and that kind of quiet development is worth tracking even when the overall fantasy numbers haven't broken through yet. He finished QB19 overall in 2025 but QB29 on a per-game basis at 13.4 points per game, which reflects a brutal inconsistency problem—he posted three games over 20 points, including a 31.8-point explosion in Week 11, but also five games below 10. His efficiency metrics still sit in the middle of the pack (38th percentile EPA, 56th percentile CPOE), and the rushing production (14.6 yards per start, two touchdowns) provides a low floor. The big development heading into Year 4 is Tetairoa McMillan’s continued development. Jalen Coker provides depth. Young is going as a low-end QB2, and that's where he belongs until he shows he can sustain the big weeks rather than alternating them with clunkers.
| CAR | 237 |
| QB49 | Anthony Richardson | IND | 230 |
| QB50 | Drew Lock | SEA | 224 |
| QB51 | Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | 224 |
| QB52 | Jayden Daniels
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Daniels was electric as a rookie in 2024, finishing as the overall QB4 at 22.0 points per game with 10 of 16 games over 20 points. Then injuries derailed his sophomore season. He appeared in just seven games in 2025, finishing QB33 overall, but the per-game production when fully healthy was still impressive—he averaged 19.6 points in his four full games and posted 17.7 and 15.2 in two additional contests where he played only 69 and 88 percent of the snaps, respectively. The efficiency metrics in his limited action (47th percentile EPA, 24th percentile CPOE on just 186 attempts) are hard to read much into given the small sample and the fact that he was clearly battling through injuries. The rushing was still there: Daniels averaged a staggering 47.2 rushing yards per start with two touchdowns. The supporting cast has turned over. Terry McLaurin remains the alpha, and the Commanders possibly upgraded at tight end by bringing in Chigoziem Okonkwo to replace Zach Ertz. They lost Deebo Samuel but drafted Antonio Williams and added Rachaad White and Jerome Ford to reshape the backfield. It's a transitional roster, but Daniels' rushing ability gives him a floor that's almost impossible to replicate at the position. He's going as the QB4, and that's a price built entirely on the 2024 version of Daniels. If he's healthy, the rushing alone makes him a weekly QB1.
| WAS | 217 |
| QB53 | Caleb Williams
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Williams took a meaningful step forward in Year 2, improving from a solid QB14 rookie finish to the overall QB6 at 18.8 points per game, a 3.6-point-per-game increase. He showed the ability to spike with a 37.7-point explosion, and demonstrated that Ben Johnson's system fits his skillset. The rushing contribution (23.2 yards per start, three touchdowns) gives him a nice floor that his rookie season didn't always provide. The advanced stat concerns are real, though. His CPOE sat at the 16th percentile. He can make plays, but he remains an inconsistent thrower, and losing D.J. Moore, his veteran security blanket, matters. Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland, and second-year Luther Burden III all have upside, however. Year 2 in Johnson's system should help, and the ceiling is firmly top-five if the accuracy improves and the receiver group gels. He's going as a midrange QB1, which means you're paying for the upside while accepting the inconsistency. If the CPOE improves to match his EPA (62nd percentile), he's a borderline value. If it doesn't, he may be hard-pressed to match his ADP.
| CHI | 210 |
| QB54 | Bo Nix
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Nix has quietly been one of the most consistent fantasy quarterbacks in the league, finishing QB9 and QB8 in his first two NFL seasons while playing all 17 games both years. His per-game average ticked up from 17.7 to 18.4 points, good for QB10 on a per-game basis in both seasons. The efficiency metrics don't jump off the page—58th percentile in EPA per dropback and 36th percentile in CPOE last year—but the production keeps showing up regardless. Nix is a solid athlete who chipped in 21.9 rushing yards and 0.29 rushing touchdowns per start in 2025, which provides a reliable floor. He also showed the ability to spike, hitting 40.0 points in Week 7 and topping 20 in five of his 16 games. The Broncos added the talented Jaylen Waddle to a receiving corps that already included Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin, and Marvin Mims. Waddle should help close the gap between Nix's mediocre accuracy numbers and his surprisingly strong fantasy output. He's going as a high-end QB2, and that's too cheap for a young quarterback who has finished as a top-10 fantasy QB in both of his NFL seasons. He's not going to win you a league, but as a QB2 in superflex or a stable QB1 in single-quarterback formats, Nix offers one of the safest floors at the position.
| DEN | 204 |
| QB55 | Spencer Rattler | NO | 191 |
| QB56 | J.J. McCarthy | MIN | 191 |
| QB57 | Tommy DeVito | NE | 184 |
| QB58 | Quinn Ewers | MIA | 158 |
| QB59 | Shedeur Sanders
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Sanders' debut was uneven. He appeared in seven games starting from Week 11, finishing QB36 overall at 11.4 points per game–a number heavily inflated by a 33.5-point explosion in Week 14. Strip that out and he averaged 7.7 points in his other six appearances. His efficiency metrics were concerning in limited action: a -0.227 EPA per dropback and a negative CPOE in just 212 attempts, both well below the qualified threshold to draw firm conclusions but alarming nonetheless. He's competing again with Deshaun Watson and Dillon Gabriel entering Year 2, though Sanders reportedly has the inside track on the starting job. The situation is modestly better than it was a season ago. Cleveland's WR room welcomes talented rookies KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston alongside an established Jerry Jeudy, and Harold Fannin Jr. should be able to handle any leftovers from David Njoku’s departure. Sanders is not a rushing threat by profile, which keeps the floor low relative to other young QBs. In 2QB or superflex leagues, a second-year quarterback with starting aspirations and a receiving corps that's genuinely better than it was is worth a late-round flier.
| CLE | 145 |
| QB60 | Nick Mullens | JAX | 145 |
| QB61 | Dillon Gabriel | CLE | 125 |
| QB62 | Kyle Allen | BUF | 118 |
| QB63 | Fernando Mendoza
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Mendoza is the clear QB1 in this class after leading Indiana to a national title and a Heisman. Advanced stats-wise, his college profile is rare: a 98th-percentile PFF Pass Grade (90.7), 94th-percentile Adjusted Completion % (79.0), and 98th-percentile yards per attempt (9.3). He wasn't manufacturing that efficiency underneath either—his aDOT sat at 9.8 yards. Forty-one touchdowns against six picks across 16 games. My Rookie QB model predicts around 17 yards rushing per game, which is not nothing, and the landing spot has pieces. Brock Bowers is a top-three fantasy tight end, Ashton Jeanty should take a leap in Year 2 under Klint Kubiak's run-heavy scheme, and the Tyler Linderbaum signing shores up the interior line. The receiver room is the problem—Tre Tucker, Jack Bech, and Dont’e Thornton are underwhelming, and Kubiak's play-action-heavy system could cap passing volume. Kirk Cousins adds a short-term murky timeline, though most first-overall QBs are starting within weeks. QB3 in redraft with a ceiling tied to the weapons around him; priority dynasty target at a discounted price.
| LV | 66 |
| QB64 | Carson Beck | ARI | 66 |
| QB65 | Ty Simpson | LAR | 66 |
| QB66 | Cade Klubnik | NYJ | 66 |
| RB1 | Jonathan Taylor
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Taylor finished as the RB2 in half-PPR formats in 2025, trailing only Christian McCaffrey. After an injury-shortened 2024 that dropped him to RB14 in 13 games, he returned with a full workload and validated his standing as a top-tier bell cow. The efficiency leans heavily on what he does after contact–his YAC/Att ranked at the 88th percentile among qualified backs. His 82nd-percentile PFF run grade confirms he's operating at an above-average level as a runner even when the blocking isn't generating much pre-contact space (57th-percentile YBC/Att). The receiving role is solid but not spectacular–54 targets, 46 catches, 378 yards–enough to support his half-PPR ceiling without driving it. A locked-in workhorse with elite after-contact traits. Draft him as a high-floor RB1.
| IND | 655 |
| RB2 | Derrick Henry
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Henry dropped from RB2 to RB7 between 2024 and 2025, which is the headline risk heading into 2026 at age 31. The volume held up–307 carries, 1,595 yards, 16 touchdowns–but the efficiency profile doesn't suggest he's generating much on his own. His YBC/Att (82nd percentile) and YAC/Att (85th percentile) are still strong, though the latter owes more to his size and straight-line power than elusiveness–his elusive rating sits at the 49th percentile and his broken-tackle rate at just the 26th. Baltimore also lost center Tyler Linderbaum to Las Vegas this offseason, a significant blow to their run-blocking interior. The Ravens added first-round guard Vega Ioane to help offset it, but replacing an elite center isn't a simple task. Henry should continue to see a big workload but his age and the loss of Linderbaum are working against him.
| BAL | 647 |
| RB3 | Aaron Jones
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Jones dropped from RB15 in 2024 to RB43 in 2025, missing five games with injury and posting efficiency numbers that suggest the decline is real and not just about availability. He ranked dead last among qualified backs in elusive rating–65th out of 65 qualified backs–and his run grade came in at the 18th percentile, his broken-tackle rate at the 20th. At 31 years old, those aren't numbers that are likely to bounce back. The receiving role was present in volume but the route grade ranked at the 10th percentile. Given his struggles running the ball, there's not much here for fantasy purposes unless injuries open the door, and even then the underlying metrics aren’t encouraging.
| MIN | 640 |
| RB4 | D'Andre Swift
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Swift was the RB19 and RB15 in 2024 and 2025, respectively, and the efficiency numbers explain part of how he got there. His run grade ranked at the 88th percentile and his YBC/Att at the 91st, reflecting both his own ability and Ben Johnson's run-friendly scheme giving him pre-contact room to operate. Where he falls short is in creating yards–his elusive rating (34th percentile), YAC/Att (45th percentile), and broken-tackle rate (34th percentile) are all below average, meaning the scheme is doing considerable work. The receiving role is present in volume (81st-percentile target share) but average in efficiency. The Bears added Logan Jones–the 2025 Rimington Trophy winner–at center in the second round, which should improve the blocking in front of Swift. With back-to-back top-20 finishes, Swift’s low-end RB2 ADP looks more than reasonable even if his ceiling is limited.
| CHI | 602 |
| RB5 | Christian McCaffrey
Draft Note by John Paulsen
McCaffrey finished as the RB1 in half-PPR formats in 2025, but the caveat is significant–he appeared in just four games in 2024. When healthy, his production is driven almost entirely by the passing game. He led all running backs in targets (121) and route grade (99th percentile among qualified RBs), while ranking 3rd in YPRR (96th percentile)–a profile that sets him apart from traditional workhorses. The rushing efficiency tells a different story: his run grade (14th percentile) and YAC/Att (9th percentile) are well below average, suggesting he's no longer the same threat between the tackles. However, given his receiving, the upside is the weekly RB1 ceiling when healthy.
| SF | 587 |
| RB6 | David Montgomery
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Montgomery should step into the most prominent role since his days in Chicago, with Houston carrying 133 vacated carries into 2026 following the departures of Nick Chubb (and Joe Mixon). The Texans also invested heavily in their offensive line, ranking 2nd in net offensive line spending (+$20.5M, four net players added) and drafting first-round guard Keylan Rutledge, which should mean better run blocking up front. Montgomery’s efficiency profile warrants some caution. His run grade (43rd percentile), success rate (29th percentile), and broken-tackle rate (6th percentile) are all below average–at this point, he's not a back who creates many yards on his own. His strength is converting after contact (71st-percentile YAC/Att), and his route grade (86th percentile) makes him a functional-to-good receiver, though Woody Marks figures to eat into change-of-pace and third-down work, which caps Montgomery’s PPR ceiling. The larger concern is the age-29 season. Per our Production Curves research, running backs at 29 typically produce at roughly 83% of their baseline–a meaningful step back for a back whose 2025 was already a step back from 2023-2024. The opportunity is real, but the combination of declining efficiency metrics and a predictable age curve makes him more of a volume-dependent RB3 than a reliable RB2, though the latter is in play if things come together.
| HOU | 580 |
| RB7 | Saquon Barkley
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Barkley went from the overall RB1 in 2024 to RB13 in 2025, and the efficiency numbers suggest the regression may be real. His run grade fell to the 60th percentile, his elusive rating to the 48th, and his YAC/Att to the 14th. Not great. The receiving role was voluminous (86th-percentile target share) but not efficient; his route grade ranked at the 14th percentile and his YPRR (0.84) was below average. Philadelphia added tackle Markel Bell in the third round, but he’s known more as a pass-blocker than a mauler in the run game. Barkley is 29, entrenched as the starter, and volume and touchdown opportunities should be fine. Which was the outlier–2024 or 2025? The data leans toward the former.
| PHI | 564 |
| RB8 | Javonte Williams
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Williams rebounded from his Denver years to finish RB11 in 2025 and profiles as a legitimate returner at the position. His success rate ranked at the 85th percentile, his YAC/Att at the 91st, and his broken-tackle rate at the 86th–that's a consistent picture of a back who generates well once he gets into a run and is difficult to bring down in the open field. The run grade (75th percentile) and elusive rating (80th percentile) round out a genuinely above-average rushing profile. The receiving role is limited in quality; his route grade (9th percentile) and YPRR (6th percentile) are near the bottom of the position. Williams is a reliable RB2 whose floor is tied to the ground game staying functional.
| DAL | 557 |
| RB9 | Josh Jacobs
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Jacobs dropped from RB5 in 2024 to RB12 in 2025, though he was the RB9 on a per-game basis and his 2025 season still had its moments–13 rushing touchdowns kept him relevant even as his per-game average dipped from 16.5 to 14.6 points per game. The efficiency picture is uneven. His PFF run grade ranked at the 77th percentile and his broken-tackle rate at the 62nd, but his YBC/Att came in at the 26th percentile, reflecting an offensive line that wasn't generating much room before contact. His success rate (40th percentile) confirms the ground game was a bit of a grind. The receiving profile is the most underrated part of his game–his route grade ranked at the 95th percentile, and his YPRR at the 75th, making him a quality pass-catcher despite the modest target volume. The blocking environment seems to be trending the wrong way. The Packers ranked 31st in net OL spending this offseason, lost two net linemen (Elgton Jenkins and Rasheed Walker), and made no offensive line investments in the first three rounds of the draft, though they did draft a center (Jager Burton) in the fifth round. The run blocking was already a liability in 2025, and there's no obvious reason to expect improvement this season. The more pressing issue is off the field. Jacobs was arrested on May 23rd following a domestic disturbance complaint and booked on five charges: battery, criminal damage to property, disorderly conduct, strangulation and suffocation, and intimidation of a victim. His attorneys state he is denying the charges. The Brown County District Attorney's Office subsequently indicated it is not yet prepared to formally charge him, noting that while probable cause supported the arrest, the evidence did not meet the DA's higher standard for prosecution. The case remains open and charges could still be filed. An NFL suspension is possible this season or next, and the range of outcomes–no suspension, a multi-game suspension, or something longer–is wide enough to make him impossible to draft with confidence. Until there is more clarity on the legal and disciplinary front, he's a player to monitor rather than actively target.
| GB | 549 |
| RB10 | J.K. Dobbins
Draft Note by John Paulsen
When Dobbins is healthy and playing, he’s a serious fantasy asset. He ranked RB18 through the first 10 weeks of 2025 on 16.4 touches per game at 5.0 yards per carry, and the advanced metrics are consistent with that output–89th-percentile YAC/Att, 71st-percentile run grade, 65th-percentile success rate. He's a quality runner who generates after contact and converts on a high percentage of his carries. The foot sprain that ended his season after Week 10 was just the latest entry in a four-year injury history that has resulted in 32 total games played. Yikes. The receiving role belongs to Harvey, who ran routes far more efficiently in 2025, so Dobbins' value is almost entirely carry-dependent. Midrange RB2 numbers are well within reach on a full season, but a full season is the one thing Dobbins hasn't managed to string together. He's a talented back who has to be drafted as an injury risk and shouldn’t be counted upon to be available in December.
| DEN | 542 |
| RB11 | Justice Hill | BAL | 542 |
| RB12 | Alvin Kamara | NO | 534 |
| RB13 | Ty Johnson | BUF | 534 |
| RB14 | Tony Pollard
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Pollard has finished RB21 and RB22 in back-to-back seasons, which is reliable production but not particularly useful for fantasy. His efficiency profile explains the ceiling. His run grade (28th percentile), success rate (18th percentile), and YAC/Att (35th percentile) are all below average, and his elusive rating (42nd percentile) doesn't suggest he's generating many yards on his own. His YBC/Att (72nd percentile) is pretty good, and indicates Tennessee's line creates some pre-contact room. His receiving game compounds the issue–his YPRR (18th percentile) and route grade (22nd percentile) are near the bottom of the position despite decent target volume (41). The ceiling here is another mid-low-end RB2 season.
| TEN | 534 |
| RB15 | Devin Singletary | NYG | 534 |
| RB16 | James Conner | ARI | 519 |
| RB17 | TreVeyon Henderson
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Henderson's 2025 splits tell two very different stories. In Rhamondre Stevenson's 13 healthy games, he averaged 10.5 touches, 56 yards, and 0.38 touchdowns–low-end RB3 production. In the games where Stevenson was out or limited, Henderson averaged 19.6 touches, 103 yards, and 1.25 touchdowns, which is strong RB1 territory. He’s being drafted as a low-end RB2, and that perceived value hinges on Stevenson’s fragility or the potential of Henderson usurping Stevenson’s role. Henderson’s 94th-percentile YBC/Att suggests he's quick to find the ample running lanes opened by New England’s excellent offensive line, and his overall profile–55th-percentile run grade, 65th-percentile elusive rating, 58th-percentile success rate–is consistently above average without a standout metric. New England again invested in the offensive line this offseason and added first-round tackle Caleb Lomu, so the line should continue to be a strength. Given Stevenson's injury history–he's missed 10 games in the last three seasons–Henderson carries real upside. The downside is that Henderson could continue to see 10 touches per game as part of a committee.
| NE | 512 |
| RB18 | Travis Etienne
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Etienne rebounded from an injury-shortened 2024 to finish a surprising RB9 in 2025, though 13 total touchdowns did a lot of the heavy lifting. The efficiency profile as a rusher is middling–45th-percentile run grade, 22nd-percentile success rate, 22nd-percentile broken-tackle rate–and his value leaned more on volume and scoring opportunity in 2025. His receiving role was productive in 2025 primarily because of the touchdowns (six); his route grade ranked at the 44th percentile and his YPRR (1.05) was just above average. The move to New Orleans is the defining variable. The offensive line wasn’t very good last year, though they added guard David Edwards, who is a nice upgrade. The Saints had just 19 vacated carries entering 2026; Alvin Kamara returns, but Etienne is expected to see starter’s touches even if Kamara retains a role as a receiver. How that split shakes out will determine whether Etienne is a viable weekly RB2 or a touchdown-dependent RB2/RB3.
| NO | 504 |
| RB19 | Omarion Hampton
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Hampton's rookie season was cut short at nine games, leaving a limited but promising sample. He finished RB32 overall at 13.3 points per game (RB16 per-game production), and the efficiency profile holds up well under the circumstances–his run grade ranked at the 86th percentile and his broken-tackle rate at the 94th, fourth-highest among qualified backs. His YAC/Att (22nd percentile) is the one concern, though 124 rookie carries is a small sample. The receiving role was functional without being a focal point, and his 71st-percentile route grade suggests the foundation is there. The bigger news for 2026 is Joe Alt's return. Alt missed virtually all of last season with injury, and getting an elite tackle back into the lineup should meaningfully improve Hampton's blocking environment. Keaton Mitchell adds depth but isn't a threat to the workload. Hampton enters the season as the clear starter with an offense and line that should be better than what he had last year.
| LAC | 489 |
| RB20 | James Cook
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Cook has finished RB8 and RB6 the last two seasons, and the profile is consistent: a workhorse who benefits enormously from Buffalo's offensive line. His 92nd-percentile YBC/Att reflects as much scheme and blocking as it does Cook himself, though his 85th-percentile PFF run grade confirms he's holding up his end. He's not a huge factor in the passing game (39 targets, 33 catches), but no one can argue with his workload.
| BUF | 474 |
| RB21 | Jordan Mason
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Mason's advanced stats don’t match his fantasy results. In 2025 he posted a 78th-percentile run grade, 83rd-percentile success rate, and 86th-percentile YAC/Att–legitimate numbers for a quality early-down back. The problem is everything around it. His receiving profile is essentially nonexistent, with a 3rd-percentile YPRR and 6th-percentile route grade, which limits his role in any modern offense, especially with Aaron Jones still in the mix. Sharing a backfield with Jones in Minnesota meant the volume was split further; neither back has a clear path to a workhorse workload. Mason is a good runner stuck in a timeshare because he’s not an adept receiver. He's worth monitoring pending Jones’s durability.
| MIN | 467 |
| RB22 | Rhamondre Stevenson
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Stevenson has finished RB25 and RB31 in back-to-back seasons, which understates what the advanced stats show. His broken-tackle rate ranks at the 97th percentile–2nd in the NFL–his YAC/Att at the 95th, and his elusive rating at the 91st. His receiving profile is legitimately above average too, with a 78th-percentile YPRR. In his 13 healthy games, he averaged 11.9 touches for 72 yards and 0.69 touchdowns per game, serving as the RB1a while TreVeyon Henderson was the RB1b (10.5 touches per game in the same span). Given his efficiency profile and last year’s split, there’s an argument that Stevenson should be drafted first, yet he’s going off the board two full rounds after Henderson.
| NE | 467 |
| RB23 | Kenneth Gainwell
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Gainwell's RB21 finish in 2025 at Pittsburgh was a surprise, but the receiving volume that drove it was real–81 targets, 73 catches, 486 yards, and three scores, with a 92nd-percentile target share, 86th-percentile YPRR, and 81st-percentile route grade. He's primarily a pass-catching back, and that profile fits the Rachaad White role he's stepping into in Tampa. The rushing efficiency has some interesting markers too: his broken-tackle rate ranked at the 95th percentile (3rd in the NFL) on 114 carries, though his run grade (51st percentile) and elusive rating (54th percentile) were average. At 4.7 YPC, he’s not just a pass-catcher. However, the situation at Tampa is complicated. Irving is the likely lead back when healthy but he’s recovering from shoulder surgery. Sean Tucker handles goal-line work. Gainwell fits as the committee's passing-down piece, but in a three-way split where none of the backs has a clean role, consistent production is hard to project. Tampa has 132 vacated carries entering 2026, so there's volume available–it's just spread across enough bodies to limit any one back's ceiling, and Gainwell is unlikely to see 80+ targets again.
| TB | 452 |
| RB24 | Ashton Jeanty
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Jeanty finished RB14 as a rookie, which looks more impressive given what he was working against–his 6th-percentile YBC/Att reflects an offensive line that gave him almost nothing before contact. He kept himself afloat through elusiveness (86th-percentile elusive rating) and a strong broken-tackle rate (82nd percentile). The 2026 picture is more encouraging. Las Vegas was the NFL's biggest offensive line net spender this offseason (+$28.3M), headlined by the signing of center Tyler Linderbaum from Baltimore–a 92nd-percentile run blocker who is a direct upgrade for Jeanty. If that pre-contact runway opens up even modestly, a back with his rushing ability could take a real step forward.
| LV | 452 |
| RB25 | RJ Harvey
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Harvey's rookie season finished RB19 overall, but that number shortens a longer story that's really about two different backs. In his six featured games without Dobbins, he averaged 15.9 touches, 68 yards, and 0.84 touchdowns–12.8 fantasy points per game, which is a solid mid-range RB2 line. The 3.2 YPC in that stretch is the problem; he was generating through volume and scoring rate (12 total touchdowns) rather than efficiency, and the advanced metrics back that up. His run grade (15th percentile), success rate (12th percentile), YBC/Att (25th percentile), and YAC/Att (32nd percentile) are all well below average. The rushing profile was genuinely poor for a back expected to carry a featured workload with Dobbins out. His receiving ability is the appeal, and he has the potential to turn into Sean Payton’s next great receiving back, a la Alvin Kamara. Harvey’s 90th-percentile target share, 81st-percentile YPRR, and 73rd-percentile route grade make him a legitimate pass-catching asset, and five receiving touchdowns in 2025 reflect real usage in scoring situations. Dobbins’ return is the tricky part. He has played 32 games total over the last four seasons, which is not a health record that inspires much confidence. Jonah Coleman was drafted in the fourth round as depth. If Dobbins misses time again–and history suggests he will–Harvey should once again find himself in a featured role, inefficiency and all.
| DEN | 452 |
| RB26 | Jaylen Warren
Draft Note by John Paulsen
In 2024 Warren finished RB40 in 14 games, largely buried behind Najee Harris in a rotation that didn't suit him. In 2025, with a clearer path, he jumped to RB18 and put together one of the better under-the-radar efficiency profiles at the position–94th-percentile elusive rating (4th in the NFL), 91st-percentile broken-tackle rate, and 82nd-percentile YAC/Att. The receiving game is equally strong: his route grade (91st percentile) and YPRR (90th percentile) rank among the best at the position. He's a legitimate three-down back when given the opportunity, but that’s in question yet again. Rico Dowdle's arrival and reunion with Mike McCarthy, who coached him in Dallas in 2024, introduces a familiarity dynamic that could push Warren back into a secondary role. Pittsburgh's 114 vacated carries create room for both backs, but how McCarthy distributes them will determine Warren's value. If Dowdle takes the early-down work and Warren holds the passing-down role, the floor is still serviceable in PPR formats. If Warren sees lead back touches, his advanced stats point to a potential RB1 season.
| PIT | 452 |
| RB27 | Samaje Perine | CIN | 444 |
| RB28 | Quinshon Judkins
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Judkins' rookie season looks worse on the surface than it actually was. His YBC/Att ranked at the 3rd percentile–the line gave him almost no room before contact–and yet he still posted a 72nd-percentile YAC/Att, generating something on runs that were otherwise dead on arrival. Cleveland's offensive line was one of the worst in the league, and the run grade (11th percentile) reflects that as much as anything that Judkins did with the ball. The offseason changes are substantial. Cleveland ranked second in net OL spending, adding Elgton Jenkins and Zion Johnson in free agency and drafting Spencer Fano (92nd/96th-percentile grades) in the first round and Austin Barber (top-rated run blocker in the college sample) in the third. If the line improves even modestly toward league average, the pre-contact numbers should look very different and Judkins’ production could seriously spike. He’s one of the more straightforward year-two breakout cases at the position, and he’s being drafted as a low-end RB2, right where he finished last year.
| CLE | 444 |
| RB29 | Kyren Williams
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Williams finished RB6 and RB8 in back-to-back seasons–the fantasy community continues to underestimate him, yet he continues to produce. Williams has quietly been one of the best fantasy backs in the league in the last three years, scoring 44 total touchdowns while averaging 1,455 yards per season and averaging 4.6 yards per carry. His 91st-percentile run grade is the standout number. The Rams' scheme does a lot of the work, though–his 86th-percentile YBC/Att reflects good blocking as much as good running, and his elusive rating (35th percentile) and YAC/Att (52nd percentile) aren't generating much when the holes aren’t there, but the holes are usually there in Sean McVay’s scheme. The receiving role (36 catches) is fine, but nothing special. I’m expecting midrange to low-end RB1 numbers once again, so his midrange RB2 ADP is quite appealing.
| LAR | 437 |
| RB30 | Jaydon Blue | DAL | 437 |
| RB31 | Breece Hall
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Hall has finished RB18 and RB17 in back-to-back seasons, making him one of the more consistent mid-range RB2-types in the league despite playing for a Jets offense that hasn't made things easy. His 83rd-percentile run grade is the strongest individual rushing metric, though his elusive rating (28th percentile) and broken-tackle rate (35th percentile) are below average, so he's not generating much when the holes aren’t there. Four rushing touchdowns in 2025 kept a ceiling on his overall production, and more red-zone opportunity could push him meaningfully up the rankings. The receiving game is a genuine asset–his route grade and YPRR both rank at the 82nd-83rd percentile range, giving him a reliable PPR floor, especially since the Jets figure to trail most of the season. Geno Smith theoretically offers an upgrade at quarterback.
| NYJ | 429 |
| RB32 | Chuba Hubbard
Draft Note by John Paulsen
In 2024, Hubbard was the RB12, with 14.7 points per game, 1,366 yards and 11 touchdowns in 15 games. He was a legitimate featured back when healthy. The 2025 season is best set aside–the calf injury that stripped him of the starting job (lost to Rico Dowdle) produced efficiency numbers (2nd-percentile broken-tackle rate, 3rd-percentile elusive rating) that reflect a back who physically couldn't cut or absorb contact, and probably not a back who lost his ability to run the football. Carolina enters 2026 with 236 vacated RB carries, 60.4% of their total, with Dowdle now in Pittsburgh. The opportunity for Hubbard to reclaim a featured role is real. The question is Jonathon Brooks, who finally appears ready to play after back-to-back ACL tears in his right knee in 2023 and 2024. Brooks returning is legitimate competition, but two torn ACLs in consecutive seasons leaves durability as a genuine concern regardless of how he looks in camp. Carolina also invested in the offensive line, adding first-round tackle Monroe Freeling out of Georgia, which should help whichever back leads the committee. If Hubbard is healthy and Brooks is still finding his footing, there's a path back to RB2 production. He's worth drafting as a high-upside RB3 with a real shot at more, though Brooks’ progress this summer will determine Hubbard’s overall upside.
| CAR | 429 |
| RB33 | Jeremy McNichols | WAS | 429 |
| RB34 | Rico Dowdle
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Dowdle improved from RB24 in 2024 (Dallas) to RB16 in 2025 (Carolina). He had a great run from Week 5 to Week 9, averaging 153 total yards per game and eventually took over the lead role while Chuba Hubbard recovered from a calf injury that was hampering his production. Dowdle’s run grade (35th percentile), elusive rating (23rd percentile), and success rate (26th percentile) were all below average. His YBC/Att (60th percentile) and YAC/Att (57th percentile) were slightly above average but not difference-making. Reunited with his former head coach Mike McCarthy in Pittsburgh, Dowdle joins a backfield with 114 vacated carries following Kenneth Gainwell's departure, presenting a real opportunity for touches alongside Jaylen Warren. There’s even a chance that McCarthy gives Dowdle the starting job considering what he produced (1,328 total yards and 5 touchdowns on 274 touches) in their last year together in Dallas. The Steelers added two tackles in the first three rounds–Max Iheanachor in the first round and Gennings Dunker in the third–which should stabilize the offensive line.
| PIT | 421 |
| RB35 | Kenneth Walker
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Walker produced a 97th-percentile run grade in 2025, second-best among qualified backs, so the talent is real. The problem in Seattle was opportunity–221 carries, five touchdowns, while sharing the backfield with Zach Charbonnet. Kansas City represents a significant change in scenery: the Chiefs enter 2026 with 288 vacated RB carries, the most of any team in the NFL, clearing the runway for a genuine workhorse role. The concern is the blocking environment. KC's run-block win rate fell from 7th to 25th last season, and the team was a net loser in offensive line spending this offseason with no early-round picks. Creed Humphrey remains an elite center, but run blocking was a weakness last year and it really didn't get addressed. Walker's elite elusiveness (89th-percentile elusive rating, 88th-percentile broken-tackle rate) gives him a chance to generate on his own, which is probably why the Chiefs went after him. A high-upside RB2 some environment risk.
| KC | 414 |
| RB36 | Jahmyr Gibbs
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Gibbs has finished as the RB3 and RB4 in back-to-back seasons, putting together one of the most consistent two-year runs at the position. His production is built around pre-contact efficiency–his YBC/Att ranks at the 95th percentile, stemming from Detroit's zone-running scheme and his ability to hit gaps quickly. He's less effective once contact arrives (20th-percentile YAC/Att), so the offense needs to keep creating clean looks for him, and it likely will. His receiving ability is elite–his route grade (97th percentile) and target share (96th percentile) rank among the best at the position, and his 1.67 YPRR underscores how efficiently he converts catches into yardage. The opportunity picture looks improved entering 2026. Detroit has 161 vacated RB carries–5th-most in the NFL–including 16 vacated carries inside the five. With David Montgomery out and Isiah Pacheco stepping in as the handcuff, Gibbs could absorb more of that red-zone and overall touch volume.
| DET | 406 |
| RB37 | Brian Robinson | ATL | 399 |
| RB38 | Bijan Robinson
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Robinson has quietly been one of the more consistent backs in the league, finishing RB4 and RB3 in back-to-back seasons. What sets him apart is the receiving profile–he led all running backs in YPRR (99th percentile) and ranked 2nd in targets (97th percentile), posting 79 catches for 820 yards and four scores. As a rusher he's well-rounded–97th-percentile elusive rating, 85th-percentile YBC/Att–without a glaring weak spot. Atlanta enters 2026 with 143 vacated RB carries, 6th-most in the NFL–via Tyler Allgeier’s departure, though Brian Robinson will replace him–so there's a chance Bijan’s touch volume grows. A high-floor, high-ceiling RB1.
| ATL | 399 |
| RB39 | Emari Demercado | KC | 399 |
| RB40 | De'Von Achane
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Achane has finished RB7 and RB5 the last two seasons, and the efficiency profile backs it up–his run grade and YAC/Att both rank at the 98th percentile. He's a legitimate difference-maker with the ball in his hands. The 2026 context is a tougher call, since there’s been a coaching and quarterback change in Miami. Malik Willis's mobility should help Achane on the ground–a running QB stresses defenses horizontally and tends to create opportunities for the running back. The passing game is a different story. Running QBs historically dump off to backs less than pocket passers do, which puts Achane's large receiving role at risk. He was a 94th-percentile target back in 2025; that number could come down. Miami's WR room turned over significantly–240 vacated targets–so there's opportunity there, but whether a new coaching staff funnels any of it to Achane is an open question. On a team that figures to be bad and trailing frequently, game script adds another layer of uncertainty. The talent is easy to trust. The situation isn't.
| MIA | 399 |
| RB41 | Chris Rodriguez
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Rodriguez arrives in Jacksonville carrying some of the stronger efficiency numbers at the position. His YAC/Att ranked at the 97th percentile–second in the NFL–and his success rate (94th percentile) and broken-tackle rate (92nd percentile) round out an impressive profile. The caveat, as with several backs running behind poor offensive lines, is that his YBC/Att ranked at the 5th percentile in Washington, meaning very little of his production came before first contact. Jacksonville didn’t invest heavily in the offensive line this offseason, though the addition of guard Emmanuel Pregnon (99th-percentile run blocker) in the third round should create more holes. The Liam Coen connection is worth noting as context–Rodriguez ran for 1,379 yards and nine touchdowns under Coen at Kentucky in 2021. He had no meaningful receiving work in 2025, which limits his PPR upside in what figures to be a committee with Tuten. He's a legitimate late-round target with a higher floor than his RB37 draft position implies if the Jacksonville run game improves.
| JAX | 391 |
| RB42 | Ronnie Rivers | LAR | 391 |
| RB43 | Tyler Allgeier | ARI | 384 |
| RB44 | Jaleel McLaughlin | DEN | 384 |
| RB45 | Rachaad White
Draft Note by John Paulsen
White fell from RB20 in 2024 to RB34 in 2025 as Bucky Irving's emergence in Tampa cut into his workload, but the efficiency profile he produced on limited carries was genuinely interesting. His run grade ranked at the 92nd percentile–5th in the NFL–and his YBC/Att at the 83rd. The catch is his YAC/Att ranked at the 8th percentile, meaning once contact arrives he doesn't do much with it. The receiving role was present in volume (75th-percentile target share) but below-average in efficiency (21st-percentile YPRR). He's joining Washington as the replacement for Chris Rodriguez. The Commanders also added Jerome Ford, Jeremy McNichols is still around, and they added Kaytron Allen in the draft.
| WAS | 384 |
| RB46 | Isiah Pacheco | DET | 384 |
| RB47 | Cam Skattebo
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Skattebo's rookie season was cut short by a dislocated ankle in Week 8, which is the only reason a back who averaged 19.5 touches, 97 rushing yards, and a touchdown per game from Weeks 2 through 7 isn't a consensus RB1 conversation. He's targeting a return during camp with the expectation of being ready for Week 1, and the Giants appear to share that confidence–they didn't add a running back in free agency or the draft, leaving Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary as the backups behind him. The efficiency data comes with a sample size caveat at 101 carries, but nothing in it raises flags, and it’s actually encouraging. His run grade (72nd percentile) and elusive rating (72nd percentile) are above average, and his broken-tackle rate sits at the 65th percentile. The more impressive numbers are in the receiving game, where his YPRR ranked at the 88th percentile and his route grade at the 90th. He's a legitimate three-down back, not just a runner. New York also used the 10th overall pick on guard Francis Mauigoa, a meaningful OL investment that should help Skattebo’s pre-contact numbers, which were below average in 2025 (35th-percentile YBC/Att).
| NYG | 361 |
| RB48 | Emanuel Wilson
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Wilson has spent two seasons as Josh Jacobs' backup in Green Bay, finishing RB50 both years with minimal volume. The question of how good he actually is has a complicated answer. His 95th-percentile success rate is the most striking number in his profile–third-best among qualified backs behind a Green Bay offensive that struggled to open holes. Most of the rest of his rushing profile is average to below average: 48th-percentile run grade, 40th-percentile elusive rating, 14th-percentile YBC/Att, underscoring the Packers’ run-blocking struggles. His YAC/Att ranks at the 75th percentile, which is legit. He’s not much of a receiver, though he did have a couple of three-catch games last season. The situation in Seattle is what makes him intriguing. After losing Kenneth Walker III, the Seahawks enter 2026 with 226 vacated carries, 52.9% of their total–the largest vacancy in the league. Zach Charbonnet tore his ACL in February and is likely out for at least the first half of the season, leaving Wilson as a potential starter by default. Jadarian Price was drafted in the first round and could be a factor quickly, but as a rookie it’s not certain he’ll be ready to start Week 1. George Holani is also in the mix, but he has a 3.3 career YPC on just 25 carries. In eight games where Wilson saw 10+ carries in Green Bay, he averaged 74 total yards and 0.76 touchdowns on 16.3 touches per game, or solid RB2 numbers. Wilson is a functional running back in a role that most functional running backs would thrive in. The success rate, YAC/att, and the feature back splits are encouraging. If Price falters, Wilson could be a surprise fantasy starter.
| SEA | 354 |
| RB49 | Chris Brooks | GB | 354 |
| RB50 | Chase Brown
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Brown has finished RB11 and RB10 in back-to-back seasons, so he’s been a consistent low-end RB1 since 2024. The efficiency profile is consistently above average without a standout number in either direction–his run grade, elusive rating, YAC/Att, and broken-tackle rate all fall in the 63rd-to-68th percentile range. The receiving game is the most distinctive part of his profile, where his 95th-percentile target share and 78th-percentile route grade give him a reliable and efficient PPR floor. The range of outcomes here is fairly narrow, and he plays in what’s typically a high-scoring offense. He’s a safe RB1/RB2 with little volatility in either direction, so the second round ADP makes perfect sense.
| CIN | 354 |
| RB51 | Kyle Juszczyk | SF | 346 |
| RB52 | Tank Bigsby | PHI | 339 |
| RB53 | Zach Charbonnet | SEA | 331 |
| RB54 | Pierre Strong Jr. | GB | 324 |
| RB55 | Kendre Miller | NO | 316 |
| RB56 | Tyjae Spears | TEN | 316 |
| RB57 | Isaiah Davis | NYJ | 316 |
| RB58 | Roschon Johnson | CHI | 316 |
| RB59 | Tyler Goodson | ATL | 309 |
| RB60 | Keaton Mitchell | LAC | 309 |
| RB61 | Jerome Ford | WAS | 309 |
| RB62 | Jaret Patterson | LAC | 301 |
| RB63 | Malik Davis | DAL | 294 |
| RB64 | Dameon Pierce | PHI | 286 |
| RB65 | Ray Davis | BUF | 286 |
| RB66 | Michael Carter | TEN | 278 |
| RB67 | Sean Tucker | TB | 278 |
| RB68 | Julius Chestnut | TEN | 278 |
| RB69 | Tyrone Tracy | NYG | 278 |
| RB70 | Blake Corum
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Corum's 2025 splits tell the familiar backup story: mostly irrelevant through 12 weeks, then double-digit fantasy points in four of five games when Kyren Williams was limited down the stretch. When the Rams' scheme gives him carries, the efficiency numbers look remarkable–his success rate (97th percentile) and YBC/Att (97th percentile) both rank second in the NFL, and his run grade sits at the 89th percentile. The catch, as with Williams, is that the scheme is doing most of the work. Corum's elusive rating (15th percentile) and YAC/Att (17th percentile) are well below average, and his receiving profile is essentially nonexistent–he ranked dead last among qualified backs in both YPRR and route grade.
| LAR | 271 |
| RB71 | Hunter Luepke | DAL | 271 |
| RB72 | Kene Nwangwu | NYJ | 263 |
| RB73 | Brittain Brown | CHI | 248 |
| RB74 | Jaylen Wright | MIA | 248 |
| RB75 | Braelon Allen | NYJ | 248 |
| RB76 | Bucky Irving
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Irving finished RB16 in 2024 and RB37 in 2025, but the per-game averages tell a more consistent story–12.8 and 12.6 points respectively. What the advanced numbers reveal is that Irving was a much better receiver in 2025 than he was a runner. His YPRR ranked at the 87th percentile and his route grade at the 74th, while nearly every rushing metric was well below average–6th-percentile success rate, 14th-percentile run grade, 15th-percentile YBC/Att–though he was far better as a runner in 2024. He continues to recover from offseason shoulder surgery, and Todd Bowles put the return timeline at "summer or fall," which doesn't inspire confidence about Week 1 availability. Adam Schefter said that Irving is “likely to be ready at some point during training camp,” which provides more optimism. Irving’s role is a little up in the air. He saw zero carries inside the five in 2025, with Sean Tucker and Rachaad White handling that role. Kenneth Gainwell replacing White adds another element of murkiness to this backfield as far as roles are concerned. Irving is a viable RB2 in PPR formats when healthy, but the injury cloud and the lack of a goal-line role make him difficult to rely on for starter-caliber numbers.
| TB | 241 |
| RB77 | Kimani Vidal | LAC | 241 |
| RB78 | Jawhar Jordan | HOU | 211 |
| RB79 | Trevor Etienne | CAR | 196 |
| RB80 | Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Croskey-Merritt quietly put together a nice first year as a featured back, with his run grade (57th percentile), elusive rating (68th percentile), success rate (66th percentile), and broken-tackle rate (68th percentile) all clustering in the same above-average range without a standout in any direction. So he's a consistent but unspectacular runner. The receiving game is essentially nonexistent–11 targets all season, 1st-percentile volume, 8th-percentile route grade–so his value is entirely rush-dependent. Washington enters 2026 with 126 vacated carries (37.6% of team carries), the bulk of which belonged to Chris Rodriguez, giving JCM a real opportunity to take on a bigger workload. The concern is the offensive line: Washington ranked 27th in net OL spending this offseason and made no early draft investments at the position. The Commanders signed Rachaad White and Jerome Ford, Jeremy McNichols is still around, and they added Kaytron Allen in the draft. This could turn ugly quickly if JCM doesn’t have a good summer.
| WAS | 196 |
| RB81 | Jacob Saylors | DET | 196 |
| RB82 | British Brooks | HOU | 196 |
| RB83 | Kyle Monangai | CHI | 196 |
| RB84 | Isaac Guerendo | SF | 188 |
| RB85 | Rasheen Ali | BAL | 181 |
| RB86 | Sione Vaki | DET | 181 |
| RB87 | George Holani | SEA | 181 |
| RB88 | Will Shipley | PHI | 173 |
| RB89 | Nathan Carter | ATL | 173 |
| RB90 | LeQuint Allen | JAX | 166 |
| RB91 | DJ Giddens | IND | 143 |
| RB92 | Bhayshul Tuten
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Tuten is the incumbent piece in a Jacksonville backfield that lost Travis Etienne this offseason, leaving 260 vacated carries in his wake–72% of the team's total, the largest percentage of any team in the league. While Etienne had more carries (12) inside the opponent’s five-yard line, he only scored two touchdowns while Tuten converted seven carries into five scores. Tuten’s athletic tools are real: his 4.32 speed and burst give him legitimate big-play upside that shows up in his 75th-percentile elusive rating and 92nd-percentile success rate. The run grade (8th percentile) is harder to dismiss, though the Jacksonville line gave him almost nothing pre-contact (11th-percentile YBC/Att), which clouds the picture. The addition of guard Emmanuel Pregnon (99th-percentile run blocker) in the third round should create more holes. Chris Rodriguez is now in the mix, making this a genuine committee rather than a featured-back situation. Tuten’s receiving role was minimal last year, but there could be significant growth in that area with Etienne out of the way and Rodriguez’s limited pass-catching ability. We’re likely to see a Tuten/Rodriguez committee but Tuten should see the goal-line work and more receiving work, and that’s key for his fantasy value.
| JAX | 143 |
| RB93 | Woody Marks | HOU | 135 |
| RB94 | Brashard Smith | KC | 128 |
| RB95 | Terrell Jennings | NE | 128 |
| RB96 | Raheim Sanders | CLE | 128 |
| RB97 | Zavier Scott | MIN | 105 |
| RB98 | Jonathon Brooks
Draft Note by John Paulsen
What Brooks showed at Texas in 2023 was genuinely impressive–1,425 total yards and 11 touchdowns in 11 games as a sophomore, with a 9th-ranked run grade and the 11th-most missed tackles forced in the college sample, plus a solid receiving profile. The talent was never the question. Two ACL tears in the same knee in consecutive seasons is the issue, and it's a significant one even with a full medical clearance and the Brooks reporting he's close to 100 percent. That phrase covers a wide range of realities going into his first real NFL season.
Carolina's 236 vacated carries create a real opportunity alongside Chuba Hubbard, and Monroe Freeling's addition at tackle should help whoever leads the backfield. Brooks figures to ease into a complementary role while the coaching staff evaluates how his knee holds up under NFL contact. The ceiling is real if the knee is right.
| CAR | 98 |
| RB99 | MarShawn Lloyd | GB | 98 |
| RB100 | Ollie Gordon | MIA | 98 |
| RB101 | Frank Gore Jr. | BUF | 90 |
| RB102 | Dylan Laube | LV | 90 |
| RB103 | Tahj Brooks | CIN | 90 |
| RB104 | Dylan Sampson | CLE | 83 |
| RB105 | Kaleb Johnson | PIT | 75 |
| RB106 | Jordan James | SF | 68 |
| RB107 | Lan Larison | NE | 68 |
| RB108 | Josh Williams | TB | 60 |
| RB109 | Kaelon Black | SF | 38 |
| RB110 | Eli Heidenreich | PIT | 38 |
| RB111 | Seth McGowan | IND | 38 |
| RB112 | Kaytron Allen | WAS | 38 |
| RB113 | Emmett Johnson | KC | 38 |
| RB114 | Nicholas Singleton | TEN | 38 |
| RB115 | Jonah Coleman | DEN | 38 |
| RB116 | Jam Miller | NE | 38 |
| RB117 | Mike Washington Jr. | LV | 38 |
| RB118 | Scott Matlock | LAC | 38 |
| RB119 | Jeremiyah Love
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Love is the best pure running back prospect since Saquon Barkley and the PFF data backs it up. He posted a 98th-percentile PFF Run Grade (93.7), a 93rd-percentile yards after contact per attempt (4.5), a 92nd-percentile PFF Elusive Rating (127.5), and a 95th-percentile yards per route run (1.83)—a four-stat profile that screams three-down workhorse. The receiving chops matter here; Marcus Freeman has said he thinks Love could play wide receiver at the next level. I heard comparisons to Christian McCaffrey before the pick was made. Arizona’s backfield was a complete wasteland last year—no back even hit 100 carries. Love walks into an immediate bell-cow role with minimal serious competition. The quarterback situation (Jacoby Brissett/Gardner Minshew/Carson Beck) limits this offense’s ceiling, but his volume floor should be rock-solid, and the Cardinals invested in the offensive line, adding guards Isaac Seumalo and Elijah Wilkinson in free agency and guard Chase Bisontis in the second round of the NFL Draft. I view Love as a high-end RB2 in early fantasy drafts.
| ARI | 38 |
| RB120 | Jadarian Price
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Price comes in as a first-round pick with the requisite size at 5'11", 203 lbs, but the scouting file is pretty thin. Playing behind Jeremiyah Love at Notre Dame, he logged just 113 carries, making this more of a traits projection than a proven production profile. His efficiency was encouraging–a 90th-percentile elusive rating (118.6), an 84th-percentile YAC/Att (3.92), and 6.0 yards per carry. Eleven touchdowns on 119 total touches is a strong scoring rate for any back, let alone one working in a complementary role. The receiving game is the central question. He had virtually no receiving work at Notre Dame, though he did catch 55 passes across his final two high school seasons, which at least suggests the hands are there. Whether an NFL coaching staff trusts him on third downs early in his career is a different matter. The situation could put him on the field immediately. With Kenneth Walker III in Kansas City, Zach Charbonnet rehabbing a torn ACL, and Emanuel Wilson best suited as a complement, Price’s draft capital says that he should be the RB1 in Seattle from Week 1. The ceiling in PPR formats depends heavily on how the passing-down role develops–if it doesn't, Wilson or an eventual Charbonnet return could absorb the snaps that matter most for fantasy. He's an RB2/RB3 in redraft with a wide range of outcomes.
| SEA | 38 |
| RB121 | Adam Randall | BAL | 38 |
| WR1 | Alec Pierce
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Pierce's breakout in 2025 deserves more attention than it got–1,003 yards in 14 games, WR34. The profile is unusual. His ESPN OPEN score is the 4th percentile, meaning almost no one in the 110-receiver sample got open less consistently, yet his PFF route grade (87th percentile) and YPRR (88th percentile) are both very good. The explanation is the extreme vertical route tree: Pierce's 20.0 average depth of target was among the highest in the league. He runs go routes and deep posts, creates the separation on his terms, and his 84th-percentile drop rate says he catches what comes his way. He doesn't manufacture yards after the catch (57th percentile) or thrive in contested situations (41st percentile). The Colts have 108 vacated WR targets entering 2026 with Michael Pittman gone, giving Pierce a path to legit WR1 usage as the team's deep threat. Daniel Jones recovering from his Achilles tear is the schematic question–how much can a returning Jones push the ball downfield to support a 20.0 aDOT receiver. At WR34 ADP, managers are betting that Pierce can repeat his 2025 breakout.
| IND | 841 |
| WR2 | Jameson Williams
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Williams is the boom-bust archetype at its purest. His ESPN YAC score is 97th percentile and his PFF YAC per reception is 94th percentile–when he gets the ball, he's among the most electric playmakers in the league. Add a 86th-percentile contested catch rate and an 83rd-percentile avoided tackle rate, and you have a receiver who creates significant plays after contact at an elite level. In 17 games last season he put up 65 receptions for 1,117 yards and seven touchdowns–WR11 overall, WR18 per game at 11.1 points–and his 2024 per-game average was a bit better (12.6). He's going as the WR23, and the upside is a legitimate WR1 finish if anything were to happen to Amon-Ra St. Brown.
| DET | 785 |
| WR3 | Christian Watson
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Watson's efficiency numbers when healthy are among the most impressive at the position. In 10 games last season after returning from injury, he caught 35 of 55 targets for 611 yards and six touchdowns, with a PFF route grade (96th percentile) and YPRR (2.51, 96th percentile) that both ranked at the very top of the wide receiver sample. Over 10 games last year, his production extrapolated to a 1,039-yard, 10.2-touchdown pace for a full season. In his 23 career games where he's played at least 70 percent of the snaps, he has averaged 3.6 catches, 63 yards, and 0.70 touchdowns on 6.1 targets per game, or 12.2 fantasy points, solidly WR1-adjacent. The snap share is the key. Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks are both gone, and Watson should command 75 to 80 percent of the snaps as the clear WR1 in Green Bay entering 2026. Jordan Love's 100th-percentile CPOE means the ball will be placed accurately when Watson works downfield, and the Packers' receiving corps–Jayden Reed, Matthew Golden, Savion Williams, and Tucker Kraft returning from his ACL–gives Love enough weapons to keep defenses from doubling Watson. He's going as the WR29 and that's a significant discount for a player with top-15 upside if the snap share materializes as expected.
| GB | 752 |
| WR4 | Tutu Atwell | MIA | 663 |
| WR5 | A.J. Brown
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Brown's metrics are elite regardless of where he lands. His ESPN scores–93rd-percentile OPEN, 88th-percentile CATCH, 85th-percentile YAC, 95th-percentile OVERALL–and his 92nd-percentile PFF route grade and 87th-percentile drop rate paint the picture of a complete, physical WR1 at the top of his game. He's finished WR12 per game in back-to-back seasons (14.1 and 12.1 points per game), missing a handful of games each year but producing at a high level when available. The trade uncertainty is the variable. If he lands in New England with Drake Maye–who posted 100th-percentile efficiency last season–the upside is enormous: a proven WR1 paired with perhaps the most efficient young quarterback in the league. If he goes elsewhere or stays in Philadelphia, the evaluation changes significantly. He's going as the WR12, and that price is essentially a bet on the landing spot being favorable. If the Patriots get him, he may end up in the top 10.
| NE | 623 |
| WR6 | DK Metcalf
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Metcalf has delivered almost exactly the same season back-to-back–WR22 overall in both 2024 and 2025, averaging 10.4 and 10.5 points per game respectively. His profile splits into two distinct tiers: an average-to-solid route runner (74th-percentile route grade, 76th-percentile YPRR, 57th-percentile ESPN OPEN) and an elite playmaker with the ball in his hands (96th-percentile YAC per reception, 81st-percentile ESPN YAC). Pittsburgh has 102 vacated WR targets (44.3% of WR volume), and with Aaron Rodgers returning with Michael Pittman and Germie Bernard competing for looks, the distribution matters. If Metcalf maintains his role, another WR2 finish is in range. He's going as a low-end WR3/high-end WR4, and for a player who has delivered WR22 production in two consecutive seasons, that's a late-round discount worth taking.
| PIT | 607 |
| WR7 | Justin Jefferson
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Jefferson proved last year that he's not entirely quarterback-proof. After a WR2 finish at 16.2 points per game in 2024, he crashed to WR28 overall and WR38 per game with J.J. McCarthy at quarterback–grinding out 1,048 yards but scoring just two touchdowns in 17 games. The underlying metrics weren't the problem: his 85th-percentile route grade, 80th-percentile YPRR, and 84th-percentile YAC per reception all suggest the talent is intact, and his 69th-percentile ESPN OPEN score reflects a legitimate separator. The issue was a Minnesota offense that couldn't consistently put him in the end zone. Two touchdowns on 140 targets is brutal luck, bad scheme, or bad quarterback–probably a combination of all three. Kyler Murray is a meaningful step up. He's not elite–his 2025 EPA and CPOE were both in the middle of the pack–but he brings improvisation, mobility, and a demonstrated ability to find receivers on broken plays that McCarthy never could. Murray also arrives with a full cast: Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings as complementary weapons, T.J. Hockenson at tight end, Aaron Jones in the backfield. Jefferson is going as the WR6, and the bet is that moving from one of the worst quarterbacks in the league to a serviceable one is enough to restore the red zone production that turned 2025 into a disaster. With Jefferson's tools and Murray's resourcefulness, a top-ten finish is a reasonable base case and a top-5 finish is within reach.
| MIN | 607 |
| WR8 | Nico Collins
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Collins presents one of the most counterintuitive statistical profiles at the position. His ESPN OPEN score is 9th percentile yet his PFF route grade is 94th percentile and his YPRR is 93rd percentile. He's a 6'4" boundary receiver who wins through size, physicality, and positioning rather than through obvious separation, and his 80th-percentile contested catch rate confirms that conclusion. Defenders don't leave him open; he catches the ball anyway, and hi 86th-percentile drop rate shows he makes the most of it when the ball arrives. He's put up 14.9 and 12.7 points per game over the last two seasons and finished WR7 and WR10 per game, respectively. At the WR11, he's priced fairly for a player who has delivered back-to-back top-ten per-game seasons.
| HOU | 599 |
| WR9 | Jaylen Waddle
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Fantasy managers forget just how good Waddle was at his peak. He posted three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to open his career before Tyreek Hill's arrival permanently scrambled the Dolphins' target distribution. With Hill dominating the offense, Waddle became a secondary option in the worst possible way. He was still running the same routes, still winning, but not getting the ball as much as he deserved. His 2024 was miserable (WR49 overall, nine games under seven points) and his 2025 in Miami wasn't much better on a per-game basis (WR28 at 10.1 per game), but the 92nd-percentile PFF route grade and 89th-percentile YPRR–both among the best in the league–indicates that the talent hasn't eroded. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception has called Waddle "an obvious good receiver" and believes his "production could shoot through the roof" as the WR1 in Denver, and the case isn't hard to make. In 29 career games without Hill, Waddle has averaged 5.5 catches, 65 yards, and 0.38 touchdowns on 7.9 targets per game, or 11.8 fantasy points per game, numbers that sit firmly in WR1 territory.
Denver gives him the best opportunity of his post-Hill career. He arrives as the clear WR1 in an offense that Bo Nix ran as the overall QB8 last season. Nix isn't elite–58th percentile in EPA per dropback, 36th percentile in CPOE–but he's functional, accurate enough to hit the short-to-intermediate routes that make Waddle dangerous. Courtland Sutton is over 30 and aging out of his prime. Troy Franklin is a legitimate second weapon but hasn't yet pushed into lead-dog territory. Evan Engram at tight end and a capable backfield of RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins round out an offense with enough complementary pieces to keep defenses from keying on Waddle. He turns 28 in November–still squarely in his prime–and the arrow is pointing up after three years of artificially suppressed production. He's going as the WR24, and for a player with a legitimate top-12 ceiling in his first season as an unambiguous WR1, that's a price worth paying.
| DEN | 590 |
| WR10 | Nikko Remigio | KC | 590 |
| WR11 | Ashton Dulin | IND | 590 |
| WR12 | Terry McLaurin
Draft Note by John Paulsen
McLaurin's 2025 was largely wiped out by injury–nine games, a WR56 finish overall–but the per-game numbers (WR34 at 9.7 ppg) and the limited underlying metrics tell you the player is still very much there. His PFF route grade (94th percentile) and YPRR (90th percentile) were both elite in 10 games, and his 84th-percentile ESPN CATCH score confirms he converts his opportunities cleanly when healthy. The YAC numbers (10th-percentile ESPN, 20th-percentile PFF) show the same limitation as always–he doesn't create after the catch, making him dependent on volume and touchdowns. In the 18 games where Jayden Daniels has played at least 85 percent of the snaps, McLaurin has averaged 4.3 catches, 60 yards, and 0.67 touchdowns per game, or 12.1 fantasy points, low-end WR1 numbers. Washington's vacated target pool is enormous–222 total targets representing 52.4% of the team's volume. With Daniels healthy and that target share redistributing, McLaurin should be the primary beneficiary. He's going as the WR25, and if both McLaurin and Daniels stay healthy, McLaurin should be able to beat that.
| WAS | 590 |
| WR13 | Bo Melton | GB | 574 |
| WR14 | Rashod Bateman | BAL | 574 |
| WR15 | George Pickens
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Pickens' first season in Dallas was something of a revelation. After three years of inconsistent production in Pittsburgh–peaking at a WR20 finish in 2023–he stepped into a pass-heavy offense with a functional quarterback and immediately became one of the best wide receivers in fantasy football, finishing WR4 overall at 15.3 points per game. The numbers behind the finish are legitimately elite: 93 receptions, 1,429 yards, and nine touchdowns on 137 targets. His PFF metrics match the production: 95th-percentile route grade, 93rd-percentile YPRR (2.35), 78th-percentile contested catch rate, and a 92nd-percentile avoided tackle rate among qualified receivers. The natural question heading into 2026 is the CeeDee Lamb dynamic. It's worth addressing directly with the data. In the 12 games where both Pickens and Lamb were healthy last season, Pickens averaged 5.7 catches, 83 yards, and 0.33 touchdowns on 8.3 targets per game, or 13.3 fantasy points per game, which is WR1 production. Lamb's comparable line in those games was 6.2 catches, 89 yards, and 0.25 touchdowns on 9.7 targets, or 13.5 points per game. They were essentially co-WR1s in one of the highest-volume passing offenses in the league, separated by less than half a point per game. When Lamb missed time, Pickens typically went nuts, scoring 29.4, 27.3, 24.9, and 25.1 fantasy points in four of those weeks, so his ceiling is among the highest at the position. Dak Prescott's 89th-percentile EPA and 76th-percentile CPOE mean the Cowboys' passing attack is both high-volume and efficient, and with Brian Schottenheimer running the offense, that pass-heavy identity should remain intact. Pickens is going as the WR10 in the early second round, and for a player who finished WR4 last year in a co-starring role, that price looks quite fair.
| DAL | 574 |
| WR16 | Calvin Ridley | TEN | 574 |
| WR17 | Devontez Walker | BAL | 574 |
| WR18 | Tee Higgins
Draft Note by John Paulsen
In the 17 games Higgins has played alongside both Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase over the last two seasons, he has averaged 5.6 catches for 72 yards and 0.82 touchdowns on 8.3 targets per game, or 14.8 fantasy points per game, low-end WR1 scoring. The full-season numbers obscure that because he's played 12 and 15 games in each of the last two years while Burrow has been similarly fragile, and the games without Burrow naturally drag the averages down. Strip those out and you're looking at a perennial top-15 receiver in a great offense.
The PFF profile fits a specific archetype. He's a pure X receiver with a 5th percentile slot rate and a 13.9 average depth of target, so he lines up wide and wins downfield. His route grade (85th percentile) is legitimately strong, and the 69th-percentile drop rate reflects solid hands for a deep threat. What pushes the production is the touchdowns. He scored 21 times in 27 games in the last two seasons. That kind of touchdown rate is both real and somewhat fragile—the Bengals will move the ball through Burrow, Chase, and the supporting cast, and Higgins is the red zone finisher who cashes in when the opportunities come. He's going as the WR16, and the bet is simple: if Burrow, Chase, and Higgins are all healthy for 14-plus games, this is a top-15 or maybe even a top-10 wide receiver.
| CIN | 558 |
| WR19 | Dyami Brown | WAS | 558 |
| WR20 | Mike Evans
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Evans' 2025 season was limited to seven games by injury, but when healthy he's still viable–he averaged 9.3 points per game in those games, and his 2024 campaign of WR8 per game (14.6 ppg) over 13 games showed he can still produce when healthy. The concern is the underlying metrics in 2025: a 27th-percentile ESPN OPEN score and 13th-percentile OVERALL, and a 1st-percentile YAC per reception. He's 33 years old and his game has narrowed–he's a boundary receiver who wins on size and positioning rather than separation, and he creates almost nothing after the catch. The argument for him is the San Francisco situation. The 49ers have 157 vacated targets heading into 2026, including 145 from the WR position, so 59% of their WR targets from last season are up for grabs. Brock Purdy's elite efficiency means those opportunities should convert at a high rate. Given his age, Evans as a low-end WR2 seems pricey, but it’s a health bet and a situation bet more than a talent bet, but the upside is real if he plays 13-plus games in an offense with that many quality targets available.
| SF | 550 |
| WR21 | Courtland Sutton
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Sutton has become one of the more reliable volume producers at the position–back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, back-to-back full 17-game campaigns, back-to-back finishes between WR9 and WR15. The consistency is real, even if the per-game averages (WR17 and WR28) reveal that he's compiling value through availability and touchdowns rather than dominance. His 84th-percentile ESPN CATCH score and the 69th-percentile contested catch rate speaks to his value as a ball-winner. The 29th-percentile YAC per reception and 35th-percentile ESPN YAC are consistent: Sutton is a boundary route-runner who wins at the point of the catch (13.3 aDOT, 13th-percentile slot rate) and doesn't create much after contact. He needs the volume and touchdowns to hold for the production to stay at WR2 levels. The complication for 2026 is Jaylen Waddle. Denver has zero vacated targets–the offense returns intact–which means Waddle's arrival compresses the existing target share rather than filling an existing hole. Sutton commanded 138 targets in 2025. How many of those shift to Waddle, who is a better route-runner, will determine whether Sutton finishes as a fantasy starter. Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims continue to develop secondary options and could push for larger roles as well. Sutton is turning 31 in October, which is not ancient but is the beginning of the zone where boundary receivers with limited YAC creation start to slow down. At WR39 with a late-round ADP, there's nothing wrong with the price for two straight 1,000-yard seasons, but 2026 will be a real test of that consistent production.
| DEN | 550 |
| WR22 | Jerry Jeudy | CLE | 542 |
| WR23 | Kyle Williams | NE | 526 |
| WR24 | DeVonta Smith
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Assuming A.J. Brown is traded away, Smith enters 2026 with the clearest path to big-time WR1 usage of his career. He's spent four years as one of the best route-runners in football while sharing the target tree with Brown, and the underlying metrics have consistently told the same story: 80th-percentile PFF route grade and 82nd-percentile YPRR last season. Smith finished WR23 overall but just WR33 per game at 9.8 points per game–eight games under seven points in 17 appearances. The four-touchdown season killed what was otherwise a 1,008-yard campaign. But the data without Brown is instructive: in the four games across the last two seasons where Brown didn't play, Smith's targets jumped from 6.5 to 8.3, his receptions from 4.7 to 5.8, and his yardage from 60 to 73. His touchdowns actually decreased from 0.42 to 0.25 per game when Brown missed. If we assume a 5.8-reception, 73-yard, 0.42-touchdown pace, Smith would average 12.7 fantasy points per game–the exact number Nico Collins put up as last year's WR8. Makai Lemon arrives presumably as Brown's eventual long-term replacement, but Smith should have at least this season as the unambiguous WR1 in Philadelphia. He's going as the WR13 at Underdog, a midrange third-round price for a player who profiles as a high-floor WR2 in the worst case and a top-eight receiver if things break his way.
| PHI | 518 |
| WR25 | Darius Slayton | NYG | 518 |
| WR26 | Tyrell Shavers | BUF | 518 |
| WR27 | CeeDee Lamb
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Lamb's 2025 was defined more by what didn't happen than what did. He finished WR18 overall and WR10 per game in 12 healthy games–the per-game production was solid, but three touchdowns in 14 appearances and a missed stretch of games suppressed the overall finish. The raw tools remain among the best at the position: a 94th-percentile ESPN OPEN score makes him one of the premier separators in the league, and his 94th-percentile YPRR confirms the efficiency when he does get the ball. The concern is that his ESPN CATCH score (39th percentile) and a 25th-percentile drop rate (9.6%) suggest he wasn't catching everything thrown his way last season–unusual for a player of his caliber and worth monitoring. Sharing the target tree with George Pickens also compressed his red zone usage; Pickens caught nine touchdowns to Lamb's three. Dak Prescott at 89th-percentile EPA keeps the volume high, and Lamb is going as the WR5. If the touchdowns normalize even partially–six or seven would be a reasonable expectation–he's a WR1a in a pass-heavy offense with one of the league's better quarterbacks.
| DAL | 510 |
| WR28 | Ja'Marr Chase
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Chase was the overall WR1 in 2024 at nearly 20 points per game. In 2025, with Burrow missing significant time, he finished WR5 overall and WR4 per game, which is still elite. The underlying metrics remain at the top of the position: 98th-percentile route grade, 91st-percentile YPRR, and a 94th-percentile ESPN YAC score that reflects his elite run-after-catch ability, which shows up in his 84th-percentile PFF YAC per reception as well. He's going as the WR1 overall, and the entire bet is Joe Burrow's health–Chase with a functional Burrow is the best receiver in fantasy football.
| CIN | 501 |
| WR29 | Jonathan Mingo | DAL | 485 |
| WR30 | Tetairoa McMillan
Draft Note by John Paulsen
McMillan delivered a quietly impressive rookie campaign–1,014 yards and seven touchdowns in 17 games while playing in a developing offense with Bryce Young still finding his footing in Year 3. His 81st-percentile route grade and 77th-percentile YPRR are strong numbers for a first-year receiver. His 41st-percentile OPEN score is modest, but he plays almost exclusively from the boundary (17th-percentile slot rate) and still generated consistent production. The Panthers' vacated WR targets are relatively modest–23 WR targets at 8.1%--so the opportunity story here is more about continued role growth than absorbing someone else's volume. He's going as the WR14, which seems fair for a player who delivered a WR2 finish in his rookie year and should improve with a full offseason. On average, 23-year old second-year receivers generated roughly 15-16% more fantasy points than they did as rookies; if McMillan follows suit, he’s looking at a midrange WR1 finish.
| CAR | 477 |
| WR31 | Skyy Moore | GB | 477 |
| WR32 | D.J. Moore
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Moore has spent two seasons as the bridge option in a developing Bears offense—WR21 in 2024, WR30 in 2025—putting up passable but uninspiring numbers with Caleb Williams developing around him. The PFF metrics reflect a mid-tier receiver: 44th-percentile route grade, 41st percentile-YPRR. The standout is his 84th-percentile contested catch rate, which makes more sense in Buffalo than it did in Chicago. The Bills vacated 56 targets from last season, so Moore will have to carve out whatever role he can with Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, and Joshua Palmer all returning. The opportunity isn't overwhelming, but the quarterback upgrade from Williams to Allen is significant enough on its own to make Moore an intriguing real-world WR1 available in the middle rounds. If Allen pushes the ball to him early and often in the way he did with Stefon Diggs, Moore's contested catch ability could produce a top-20 finish.
| BUF | 477 |
| WR33 | Tyquan Thornton | KC | 469 |
| WR34 | Matthew Golden
Draft Note by John Paulsen
After a reportedly great training camp, Golden's rookie year was forgettable–4.2 points per game in 13 games, 29 receptions, and zero touchdowns. The underlying metrics are average across the board: 52nd-percentile route grade, 47th-percentile YPRR, 55th-percentile ESPN OVERALL score. The one standout is an 83rd-percentile contested catch rate, suggesting he can win in traffic even if he can’t separate consistently. The reason to pay attention in Year 2 is mostly situational. Green Bay has 135 vacated WR targets representing 50.9% of WR volume–the same enormous vacancy that makes Christian Watson and Jayden Reed so compelling. With Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks both gone, the Green Bay WR room has real openings behind Watson and Reed, and Golden is the most likely candidate to step into a top-three role in Matt LaFleur’s offense. The moderate rookie metrics mean this is mostly an opportunity play rather than a talent endorsement, but with a high-end WR5 ADP, the draft capital is low enough that even a partial breakout might make him fantasy-relevant.
| GB | 461 |
| WR35 | Luther Burden
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Burden’s PFF YPRR was 98th percentile (2.69) and his YAC per reception was 97th percentile (7.3)–elite numbers that put him among the best receivers in the league on a per-route basis. He did it from the slot (73rd percentile slot rate) running short routes (7.5 average depth of target), which is why his 69th-percentile ESPN OPEN score and 77th-percentile YAC score are especially impressive for a rookie. On the flip side, a 2nd-percentile contested catch rate implies he can't win in traffic at all, and a 25th-percentile drop rate is a concern. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception says Burden is “extremely talented” and that “the good heavily outweighs any critiques.” The opportunity for Year 2 is definitely there. Chicago has 149 vacated WR targets (48.1% of WR volume) with D.J. Moore gone, and Burden should definitely see a bump in snaps and targets. Early ADP has Burden going a full round ahead of his teammate, Rome Odunze.
| CHI | 461 |
| WR36 | Demarcus Robinson | SF | 453 |
| WR37 | Justin Watson | HOU | 453 |
| WR38 | Jahan Dotson | ATL | 453 |
| WR39 | Drake London
Draft Note by John Paulsen
London's profile creates a genuine tension between the eye test and the numbers. His ESPN OPEN score (31st percentile) and OVERALL (33rd percentile) suggest he rarely beats coverage cleanly–and yet his PFF route grade is 97th percentile and his YPRR is 92nd percentile, both among the best in the league. In 11 games last season he averaged 13.8 points per game–WR7 on a per-game basis–with 68 receptions for 919 yards and seven touchdowns. His 27th-percentile avoided tackle rate tells you he's not elite at extending plays after the catch, which further concentrates his value in volume and red zone usage. He's going as the WR8 in an offense that also features Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts, and the upside is a top-5 finish.
| ATL | 445 |
| WR40 | Chris Olave
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Olave's bounce-back in 2025 was one of the bigger production stories at the position–100 receptions, 1,163 yards, and nine touchdowns after missing eight games in 2024. His 95th-percentile ESPN OPEN score is the foundation: he's among the purest route-runners in the league, winning against coverage cleanly and consistently. The 83rd-percentile YPRR backs it up. The significant limitation is YAC–a 15th-percentile ESPN YAC score and 29th-percentile PFF YAC per reception confirm he's strictly a separator who relies on yards after separation rather than yards after the catch. He needs touchdowns and volume to sustain WR1 production, and the nine touchdowns in 2025 were a high-water mark that may face regression. The Jordyn Tyson arrival cuts both ways. It could draw some of Olave's targets and reduce his volume in a Saints offense that isn't swimming in passing yardage, or it could provide a secondary threat that reduces the coverage attention Olave faces and opens up easy opportunities. Tyler Shough entering Year 2 with Kellen Moore is a modest positive. Going as the WR15, Olave is a WR2 whose ceiling requires touchdowns that aren't guaranteed to repeat.
| NO | 445 |
| WR41 | Kalif Raymond | CHI | 437 |
| WR42 | Travis Hunter | JAX | 429 |
| WR43 | Jalen Nailor | LV | 429 |
| WR44 | Treylon Burks | WAS | 429 |
| WR45 | Rashid Shaheed
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Shaheed's 2025 was a tale of two entirely different seasons. Before being traded to Seattle, he was producing at an 83-catch, 942-yard, 3.8-touchdown pace in nine games with the Saints–solid WR3-type numbers that reflected his ability as a route-runner and separator. After the trade, the role collapsed entirely: 15 receptions on 26 targets for 188 yards in nine games as a secondary option in a Seahawks offense built around Jaxon Smith-Njigba. His 81st-percentile ESPN OPEN score and 94th-percentile drop rate show the underlying talent is real, but the 2025 Seattle splits showed what happens when an offense isn’t ready to feature a player. The $51 million contract he signed with Seattle in the offseason is the interesting signal here. Teams don't pay $17 million per year to a rotational receiver, so that investment strongly implies he's being penciled in for a significantly larger role, which likely means Cooper Kupp's role is being reduced or restructured. He goes as a low-end WR5 with a 12th-round ADP and the upside is a featured No. 2 in a capable offense. The contract supports the bet: teams investing $51 million in a receiver tend to use them.
| SEA | 413 |
| WR46 | Darnell Mooney | NYG | 413 |
| WR47 | Devin Duvernay | ARI | 413 |
| WR48 | Ben Skowronek | PIT | 404 |
| WR49 | Olamide Zaccheaus | ATL | 404 |
| WR50 | Christian Kirk | SF | 404 |
| WR51 | Davante Adams
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Adams turned in one of the more improbable statistical seasons of 2025—14 touchdowns in 14 games at 33 years old, finishing WR7 overall at 13.8 points per game. His 91st-percentile PFF route grade and 89th-percentile ESPN OPEN score confirm the separation ability is still there, and Matthew Stafford's elite efficiency continues to find him in the right spots. The sustainability questions are significant. A touchdown-per-game pace is almost certainly not repeatable–four fewer TDs would cost him nearly 24 points over a full season and shift him from WR1 to solid WR2 territory, which is still higher than he’s being drafted, so the touchdown regression is baked into his ADP. His ESPN YAC (15th percentile) and a 17th-percentile drop rate are genuine concerns for a player entering his age-34 season, and the Rams have essentially zero vacated WR targets to cushion any role reduction. He's a fine WR2 if Stafford stays healthy and the touchdowns hold at double digits–but you're drafting on faith in a 38-year-old quarterback and a 34-year-old receiver maintaining both a health and a production floor.
| LAR | 404 |
| WR52 | Emeka Egbuka
Draft Note by John Paulsen
The advanced stats from Egbuka's rookie season are all over the place. His ESPN OPEN score (6th percentile) and CATCH score (4th percentile) were both near the bottom of the 110-receiver sample, so he struggled to create separation and dropped the ball at a high rate (11.3%, 18th percentile). And yet he finished WR17 overall with 938 yards and six touchdowns. The explanation stems from his 85th-percentile ESPN YAC score and 84th-percentile PFF YAC per reception. When he did get the ball, he created after the catch at an elite level. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception called Egbuka “an obviously good player” but noted that his production cooled after a red-hot start to his rookie season. The opportunity heading into Year 2 is there. Tampa Bay has 116 vacated WR targets (32.2%) with Mike Evans gone, including eight vacated inside-the-10 targets (33.3% of team red zone looks). Baker Mayfield will keep the offense moving, while Chris Godwin's return and Jalen McMillan's emergence add complementary pieces, though I wouldn’t be shocked if Godwin had the best fantasy season of the three.
| TB | 388 |
| WR53 | Joshua Palmer | BUF | 388 |
| WR54 | Mack Hollins | NE | 380 |
| WR55 | Kendrick Bourne | ARI | 380 |
| WR56 | Jalen Tolbert | MIA | 372 |
| WR57 | Amon-Ra St. Brown
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Consistency is St. Brown's defining trait. He's finished WR3 overall in back-to-back seasons–15.4 and 15.5 points per game–without a single significant injury. He does it with a 99th-percentile ESPN OPEN score and a 98th-percentile PFF route grade, getting open against coverage as cleanly as anyone in football. The 95th-percentile YPRR backs up the separation, and 11 touchdowns last season in an offense that doesn't lack for weapons (Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams) shows just how embedded he is in Detroit's red zone plan. Going as the WR4 with a late-first/early-second ADP, he's priced fairly for a player who should be drafted with confidence that he’ll deliver WR1 production.
| DET | 372 |
| WR58 | Garrett Wilson
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Wilson is one of the most talented receivers in the league playing in an offense that hasn’t let him cook. His 97th-percentile ESPN OPEN score is among the very best in the sample–he creates clean separation as well as anyone. His 2025 ended after seven games with injury, but in those games he averaged 11.6 points per game (WR15 pace). The Jets have 99 vacated WR targets entering 2026–37.2 percent of the team's WR target share–which is a significant opportunity for a receiver who has never had consistent volume. Geno Smith arrives as a legitimate upgrade: he's not elite, but he's functional, accurate enough to find open receivers, and far less likely to leave Wilson wide open while throwing into coverage elsewhere. At WR17 with an early-fourth-round ADP, Wilson's value assumes he continues to produce at the same level, and that may not take into account his pending QB upgrade. A healthy Wilson with a usable quarterback and the Jets' expanded target vacancy is a legitimate top-15 wide receiver.
| NYJ | 372 |
| WR59 | Hollywood Brown | PHI | 372 |
| WR60 | Cooper Kupp | SEA | 364 |
| WR61 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | IND | 364 |
| WR62 | Michael Pittman Jr.
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Pittman's 2025 in Indianapolis was quietly productive–WR21 overall, 10.0 points per game in 17 games, with seven touchdowns despite being almost exclusively a short-route receiver (8.4 aDOT). His ESPN CATCH score (65th percentile), drop rate (53rd percentile), route grade (63rd percentile), and YPRR (56th percentile) are solid if unspectacular, and he doesn't create much after the catch (35th-percentile YAC). He's a functional volume-and-touchdowns receiver who shows up every week. Pittsburgh has an enormous 102 vacated WR targets (44.3% of WR volume) with 16 vacated inside-the-10 looks (45.7%), which is the obvious appeal. But the competition for that target share is real: DK Metcalf and rookie Germie Bernard are in the room, Aaron Rodgers will push the ball downfield, and Mike McCarthy's offense in Dallas ran a short-to-intermediate scheme that Pittman should fit perfectly. His profile is built for a West Coast-adjacent system, not a deep-ball quarterback. The math still works if he absorbs 110-plus targets in Pittsburgh's offense.
| PIT | 356 |
| WR63 | Khalil Shakir
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Shakir's profile is genuinely unique, and understanding it requires separating what he does from how fantasy values it. His PFF YAC per reception (98th percentile, 7.6 yards) and avoided tackle rate (98th percentile) are both elite–he's one of the most elusive receivers in football with the ball in his hands. The ESPN YAC score (88th percentile) corroborates it. He runs almost exclusively from the slot (93rd percentile slot rate) at an extremely short 3.9 average depth of target, which means he's essentially a gadget weapon on manufactured touches–and he's genuinely excellent at creating from that role. The problem is the other half of the profile: a 34th-percentile ESPN OPEN score and 23rd-percentile CATCH score suggest he isn't winning clean or converting reliably, which puts a ceiling on how much target share he can command. Two straight years of WR35-36 finishes confirm this. He's a reliable contributor but not a weekly WR2. D.J. Moore's arrival in Buffalo adds another body to an already crowded target tree alongside Josh Allen's rushing volume. Moore played almost exclusively from the outside (84th-percentile wide rate last year), so he and Shakir aren't in direct competition for the slot, but Allen's runs suppress pass volume across the board and the math gets a little harder. As a midrange WR5 with a late ADP, Shakir is worth the dart throw for his elite YAC creation, but Moore's arrival is a mild headwind in an offense where targets were at a premium.
| BUF | 356 |
| WR64 | Chris Godwin
Draft Note by John Paulsen
The injuries have been brutal, but the talent remains elite when Godwin is on the field. Before a dislocated ankle ended his 2024 season in Week 7, he was averaging 16.1 fantasy points per game, which was THE overall WR4 pace, with 82 yards per game and three games over 20 points in seven appearances. The dislocated ankle recovery bled into 2025, where a fibula injury limited him to six games and just 40 yards per game. The yards after the catch ability remains–a 98th-percentile ESPN YAC score and 98th-percentile PFF avoided tackle rate from a player still operating at less than full health–reduces the concern about Godwin’s age. The situation heading into 2026 is significantly better. Mike Evans is gone, opening 116 vacated WR targets (32.2% of WR volume) and eight vacated red zone looks (33.3%). OC Zac Robinson has said the team has "huge expectations" for Godwin in the slot, which is exactly where he belongs. Hat-tip to Adam Pfeifer: in 16 games since 2024, Godwin has averaged 2.10 YPRR and 33% target rate per route from the slot versus 1.49 YPRR and 21% elsewhere; the production differential is stark and Robinson clearly knows it. He's going as a midrange WR4, which significantly undervalues what a healthy Godwin can do in a featured role: the per-game history, the slot production data, and the Evans-sized vacancy all point toward a rock-solid WR3 floor with legitimate WR2 upside if he stays upright.
| TB | 348 |
| WR65 | Lil'Jordan Humphrey | DEN | 348 |
| WR66 | Kayshon Boutte | NE | 348 |
| WR67 | Jayden Higgins
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Higgins' rookie season was relatively efficient–41 receptions for 525 yards and six touchdowns in a limited role alongside Nico Collins in 17 games. The six touchdowns on 67 targets (a 9.0% TD rate) are impressive. His hands are good: an 82nd-percentile ESPN CATCH score and 82nd-percentile drop rate confirm he's reliable when the ball arrives. The 60th-percentile OPEN score and 64th-percentile route grade aren’t bad for a rookie. Higgins’ production picked up in the second half of the season. He played at a 49-624-7.7, WR5 pace from Week 8 on. Houston has 55 vacated WR targets (15.9% of WR volume), and the Tank Dell potential return cuts both ways–if Dell returns healthy and commands his usual 80-plus target share, Higgins operates as a complementary WR2/WR3 and the ceiling stays capped. If Dell's health is again an issue, Higgins could inherit significantly more volume alongside Collins.
| HOU | 348 |
| WR68 | Anthony Gould | IND | 348 |
| WR69 | Romeo Doubs
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Doubs arrives in New England as the WR1 (for now) in one of the most exciting young offenses in football, and that description would have been unthinkable a year ago. His underlying metrics were genuinely solid in Green Bay–76th-percentile ESPN OPEN score, 85th-percentile CATCH score, 83rd-percentile OVERALL, and a 72nd-percentile PFF route grade and 73rd-percentile YPRR. He's an outside receiver (11th-percentile slot rate) who wins on his routes and catches the ball reliably, which is exactly the profile Drake Maye's 100th-percentile efficiency can elevate. New England has 100 vacated WR targets (35.3% of WR volume), and Doubs is first in line to absorb them at this point. The A.J. Brown trade situation is the key: if Brown arrives, Doubs becomes a solid WR2 in one of the better offenses in football–a reasonable outcome given his WR4 ADP. If Brown doesn't come, Doubs is the likely WR1 with a legitimate top-20 ceiling. Either scenario at current ADP represents value. He's one of the more interesting double-digit values in the draft.
| NE | 332 |
| WR70 | Jordan Addison
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Addison's 2024 was a legitimate breakout. He finished WR17 overall, 12.9 points per game over 14 games, finishing inside the top 20 for the second time in his career. Then 2025 happened. He regressed to WR43 and 8.7 points per game in 13 games with J.J. McCarthy at quarterback, and the underlying metrics explain why: a 14.3% drop rate (10th percentile), an 8th-percentile ESPN CATCH score, and a 30th-percentile route grade paint the picture of a receiver who struggled to hold onto the football and win against coverage. Kyler Murray represents a genuine upgrade at quarterback since his improvisation and mobility should create more opportunities underneath and on broken plays that a receiver with Addison's field-stretching tendencies (14.5 aDOT) can exploit. The 50 vacated WR targets in Minnesota (17.4% of WR volume) add some incremental opportunity, though the wrinkle is Jauan Jennings' arrival. He’s a reliable underneath option who could absorb some of the intermediate volume that Addison might otherwise see. The question heading into 2026 is which version shows up: the WR17 from 2024 or the drop-prone WR43 from 2025. He’s being drafted as a high-end WR4, so the market seems to be betting more on the latter.
| MIN | 324 |
| WR71 | Jauan Jennings | MIN | 315 |
| WR72 | Luke McCaffrey | WAS | 315 |
| WR73 | Jaylin Noel | HOU | 307 |
| WR74 | Jack Bech | LV | 307 |
| WR75 | KaVontae Turpin | DAL | 307 |
| WR76 | Casey Washington | ATL | 299 |
| WR77 | Marvin Harrison Jr.
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Two NFL seasons into what was supposed to be a generational career, Harrison remains one of fantasy's more puzzling investments. He's been WR32 and WR45 overall in his first two years–passable but unremarkable, with underlying metrics that don't yet reflect the talent that made him the fourth overall pick. His PFF route grade (50th percentile) and 10.9% drop rate (20th percentile) are genuinely concerning, and a 57th-percentile ESPN OPEN score suggests he's not consistently creating the separation his draft capital implied. In the seven games from Week 6 to Week 18 where Jacoby Brissett started and Michael Wilson played alongside him, Harrison averaged just 3.0 catches, 43 yards, and 0.29 touchdowns on 5.9 targets, or 7.8 fantasy points per game. Those are WR5-type numbers. The real variable is quarterback. Brissett is in contract negotiations with no deal reportedly close, which means Arizona could enter 2026 with a new signal-caller, and the effect of that change on both receivers is genuinely unknown. He's going as a low-end WR3, and barring glorious reports out of camp this summer, I’m not willing to draft him in that range. Two years of middling production demand the question: is this a situation problem, a development curve, or his actual ceiling?
| ARI | 291 |
| WR78 | Brian Thomas Jr.
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Thomas’s sophomore collapse was as complete as any in recent memory. He went from the overall WR4 finish as a rookie–14.2 points per game, seven games over 15 points, genuine WR1 production–to WR44 overall at 8.3 points per game in 2025. The underlying 2025 metrics are alarming: a 2nd-percentile ESPN CATCH score, a 10th-percentile ESPN YAC score, a 17th-percentile OPEN score, and a 1st-percentile OVERALL score–literally the worst in the 110-receiver sample. The 2024 version of Thomas clearly existed, we all saw it. The production was real and the 16-game sample was big enough to trust. However, he was significantly better with Mac Jones (86 yards per game) than he was with Trevor Lawrence (66 yards per game) as a rookie, and his two-season averages with Lawrence at quarterback aren’t special: 3.6 catches for 57 yards and 0.30 touchdowns over a 23-game sample. He's going as a low-end WR3, so drafters are betting that he has some (positive) regression to his rookie production. Unless the camp reports are glowing this summer, given his lackluster production with Lawrence, I’ll be placing my Jacksonville bets elsewhere.
| JAX | 291 |
| WR79 | Zay Flowers
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Flowers is one of the most complete receivers in the league by the metrics and one of the more underrated by the overall rankings. His ESPN OVERALL score (96th percentile) and OPEN score (94th percentile) are both elite, as is his 97th-percentile YPRR. The 86th-percentile YAC per reception and 84th-percentile avoided tackle rate confirm what the eye test says: he's a dynamic playmaker who creates after the catch at an elite level. The production has been real–1,211 yards last season–but only five touchdowns dragged his overall finish to WR12. With Mark Andrews absorbing red zone targets at tight end and Derrick Henry handling goal-line carries, Flowers may perpetually be the best player on the Ravens who doesn't score enough. Baltimore's 43 vacated WR targets (21.1% of receiver targets) from departed players adds some incremental opportunity. He's going as the WR18, and the ceiling depends heavily on whether the touchdowns regress positively from five.
| BAL | 291 |
| WR80 | Rome Odunze
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Odunze's Year 2 showed incremental progress–a WR25-per-game finish (10.3 ppg) in 12 games compared to a frustrating WR59 rookie campaign. His 91st-percentile ESPN YAC score shows playmaking ability after the catch, and his PFF YAC per reception (74th percentile) underlines that skill. The areas that need improvement are also clear: a 50th-percentile OPEN score and 68th-percentile route grade suggest his route running is average, and his ESPN CATCH score (4th percentile) and 8.3% drop rate (33rd percentile) point to ball-security issues in traffic. The 14.5 average depth of target is the distinguishing trait from Luther Burden: Odunze is the outside boundary receiver running deeper routes, which gives the Bears two genuinely different archetypes to deploy. Chicago's 149 vacated WR targets (48.1%) are split between Odunze and Burden (and Colston Loveland) as the primary candidates, with Odunze positioned to absorb the downfield share that Moore carried. Year 3 with Williams and a full offseason in Ben Johnson's system should produce another step. He's going as a high-end WR3, which is a reasonable bet on a receiver with playmaking athleticism in an offense who needs him to grow into a larger role.
| CHI | 283 |
| WR81 | Keon Coleman | BUF | 283 |
| WR82 | Puka Nacua
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Nacua led all receivers in ESPN OVERALL score (100th percentile) and was 99th in OPEN, and his PFF route grade (100th percentile) and YPRR (3.71, 100th percentile) were both the best in the entire sample. He backed it up: 129 receptions, 1,715 yards, 10 touchdowns, and a WR1 overall finish at 19.3 points per game in 2025. He also had a 91st-percentile contested catch rate and 86th-percentile YAC per reception, making him effective at every phase of the route. The only flag on his profile is the durability history–he played 11 games in 2024 before returning for a full 2025–and Matthew Stafford's age. Both are real risks, but Stafford was elite last season (91st-percentile EPA) and Nacua's separation ability means he doesn't require elite quarterback play to produce. He's going as the overall WR2, and the metrics make it very difficult to argue with.
| LAR | 283 |
| WR83 | Calvin Austin III | NYG | 283 |
| WR84 | Quentin Johnston
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Johnston took a meaningful step forward in 2025–WR27 overall and WR24 per game at 10.4 points in 14 games, a real improvement from a so-so WR43 finish the year before. The eight touchdowns in 14 games drove the production and show that Herbert looks for him in the red zone. His ESPN scores are balanced across the board–54th-percentile OPEN, 65th-percentile CATCH, 70th-percentile YAC, 62nd-percentile OVERALL–which isn't elite but is a functional profile for a big outside receiver. The 94th-percentile avoided tackle rate is the standout metric: when Johnston gets the ball in space, he's difficult to bring down. The PFF route grade (51st percentile) and YPRR (61st percentile) say he's average at creating separation–he's a boundary receiver who relies on physicality and yards after contact rather than route technique. The Chargers have 118 vacated WR targets (33%) with Keenan Allen gone. Johnston is the natural WR2 candidate as the team's primary outside option, with Ladd McConkey owning the slot and rookie Tre Harris still developing. Herbert's established connection with his receivers gives Johnston a real path to 100-plus targets. He's going as a low-end WR4 and appears to be one of the better mid-round values at the position.
| LAC | 283 |
| WR85 | Marvin Mims | DEN | 283 |
| WR86 | Tre Tucker | LV | 283 |
| WR87 | Tory Horton | SEA | 275 |
| WR88 | Wan'Dale Robinson
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Robinson's 2025 was easily his best as a pro–WR13 overall with 92 receptions, 1,014 yards, and four touchdowns in 16 games. His 80th-percentile YPRR and 92nd-percentile slot rate confirm a genuine role. The underlying profile is more nuanced. His 76th-percentile ESPN OPEN score says he wins against coverage, and the 61st-percentile PFF YAC says he does a decent job of creating after the catch. He runs short (9.0 aDOT) and avoids contact well enough to move the chains, but this is not a receiver who generates big plays. In Tennessee, Robinson fits into the slot alongside Carnell Tate–the rookie WR1 running downfield patterns–giving Cam Ward a legitimate short-intermediate option underneath. The Titans have 60 vacated WR targets (20.3% of WR volume). The air yards won't be Wan'Dale's, but the underneath targets are right in his range. As a high-end WR5, he's a late-round depth piece with WR3 upside in weeks where Ward finds him early and often. The situation is workable; whether Robinson can replicate his 2025 production with a new quarterback remains to be seen.
| TEN | 275 |
| WR89 | Tom Kennedy | DET | 275 |
| WR90 | Parker Washington
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Washington's involvement after the Jakobi Meyers trade is the best argument for drafting him: 4.3 catches, 74 yards, and 0.43 touchdowns per game on 6.3 targets across Weeks 11 to 18, translating to 12.0 fantasy points per game in a significant role. He finished with 58-847-5 on 95 targets in 16 games. The underlying metrics back the potential. His PFF route grade (90th percentile) and YPRR (87th percentile) are among the stronger profiles in the sample, and his 86th-percentile contested catch rate and 85th-percentile avoided tackle rate confirm he can win at the point of attack and create after contact. The ESPN YAC score (85th percentile) and 65th-percentile OVERALL show a receiver who makes plays when given the opportunity. The 12.0 PPG sample wasn't a fluke against soft competition: it was a productive 23-year-old receiver finally given a starting role in an offense with a capable quarterback.
| JAX | 275 |
| WR91 | Xavier Smith | LAR | 275 |
| WR92 | Jakobi Meyers
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Meyers is easy to underrate because nothing about his game leaps off the page. His 78th-percentile ESPN CATCH score and 64th-percentile drop rate reflect what he actually is: a reliable possession receiver. After scoring 10.1 fantasy points per game post-trade from Week 11 to Week 18 (4.9-55-0.38 on 7.3 targets), Meyers again showed he can function as a productive WR2 in the right context. He runs routes from all over the formation (70th-percentile slot rate) and wins through savvy and positioning rather than athleticism–46th-percentile OPEN score, average PFF route grade, competent but not special YPRR. Jacksonville's 61 vacated WR targets include 13 inside-the-10 looks (34.2% of red zone volume). As a WR4, he's a reliable floor option given how Jacksonville immediately used him after the trade.
| JAX | 275 |
| WR93 | Michael Wilson
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Wilson's 2025 season produced one of the most extreme situational splits in the league, and it tells you nearly everything you need to know about drafting him. In the seven games from Week 6 onward where Jacoby Brissett started and Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. shared the field, Wilson averaged 3.4 catches, 51 yards, and 0.29 touchdowns on 5.7 targets, or 8.5 points per game, a low-end WR4. In the five games where Harrison was out of the lineup, Wilson averaged 9.2 catches, 120 yards, and 0.80 touchdowns on 13.6 targets, mind-boggling production that would rank as THE WR1 over a full season. His underlying metrics support the burst: a 90th-percentile ESPN CATCH score and 88th-percentile contested catch rate make him one of the best ball-winners in the league, and the 77th-percentile PFF route grade says the technical foundation is real. The calculation at his WR4-type ADP is straightforward: he's a boom-or-bust bet on how much the Harrison-Wilson dynamic plays out in his favor. If Brissett doesn't return and Arizona installs a new quarterback who distributes targets differently, or if Harrison misses time again, Wilson's ceiling is legitimately top-15. Draft him knowing the floor is a frustrating WR4 and the ceiling is a potential league-winner.
| ARI | 275 |
| WR94 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Every meaningful receiver metric points in the same direction with JSN. He led all wide receivers in ESPN OPEN score (100th percentile) and ranked 98th in OVERALL, and his PFF route grade (99th percentile) and YPRR (3.62, 99th percentile) were both at the top of the sample. The production matched: 119 receptions, 1,793 yards, and 10 touchdowns in 2025–a WR2 overall finish at 18.1 points per game. He also added an 82nd-percentile contested catch rate, which tells you he's not just a soft-route slot receiver who needs clean looks to function. Sam Darnold is a minor concern at quarterback–93rd percentile CPOE sounds great until you see the 14 interceptions–but Darnold got the job done last year and JSN is the rare receiver whose separation ability is good enough to overcome questionable quarterback play. He's going as the WR3 overall, and the metrics justify it.
| SEA | 267 |
| WR95 | Andrei Iosivas | CIN | 267 |
| WR96 | Jayden Reed
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Reed's 2025 was largely wiped out by injury, but his track record in healthy seasons is dependable. He finished in the top 25 at the position in both 2023 and 2024, and his profile fits the Jordan Love offense: a 98th-percentile slot rate, short-area playmaking, and an 88th-percentile avoided tackle rate that creates yards after the catch. Green Bay has 135 vacated WR targets entering 2026–50.9% of the team's WR volume–with Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks both gone. That usage drops almost entirely into a room of Chistian Watson, Reed, Matthew Golden, Savion Williams, and Tucker Kraft returning from his ACL. Reed as the established WR2 in that group, with Love's 100th-percentile CPOE generating efficient production throughout the offense could set up a strong opportunity, provided Reed sees consistent snaps, which hasn’t always been the case. He’s being drafted as a WR4-type despite having two top-25 finishes in three seasons.
| GB | 267 |
| WR97 | Ricky Pearsall
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Pearsall is near the bottom of the sample in separation (25th-percentile ESPN OPEN) but elite at catching the football when it arrives (92nd-percentile ESPN CATCH, 97th-percentile PFF contested catch rate). He doesn't get open easily and doesn't create after the catch–his 10th-percentile YAC per reception makes him one of the worst run-after-catch receivers in the league–but when the ball is in the air, he comes down with it about as reliably as anyone. Zero touchdowns in nine games last season destroyed his fantasy value, but San Francisco has 145 vacated WR targets (59.2% of WR volume) entering 2026. Jauan Jennings is gone, Mike Evans arrives as the established WR1, and Christian Kirk adds another option–but that still leaves a significant target pool available for Pearsall as Brock Purdy's intermediate possession option. Purdy's elite CPOE and anticipation throws fit Pearsall's contested-catch profile. As a low-end WR4, the market is expecting a receiver with elite hands in a target-rich environment at a discount driven by a zero-touchdown season.
| SF | 259 |
| WR98 | Jalen McMillan | TB | 259 |
| WR99 | Tank Dell | HOU | 259 |
| WR100 | Demario Douglas | NE | 251 |
| WR101 | Adonai Mitchell | NYJ | 251 |
| WR102 | Savion Williams | GB | 243 |
| WR103 | John Metchie | CAR | 243 |
| WR104 | Greg Dortch | DET | 235 |
| WR105 | Malik Nabers
Draft Note by John Paulsen
There are times that the talent is elite and the ADP is still a problem. Nabers is one of the best young receivers in football–his combined 2024 season and three healthy games in 2025 average out to 14.7 points per game over 17 games, a genuine WR1 number that would have made him 2025’s WR6 on a per-game basis. His 92nd-percentile ESPN OPEN score reflects one of the best separation profiles at the position, and his 85th-percentile YPRR confirms that per-route production over a small but meaningful sample. The health situation is the entire conversation. Nabers underwent surgery for a torn ACL and meniscus in October, then had a follow-up procedure in April to remove scar tissue–the team says the second procedure doesn't delay the recovery timeline, but it's now been eight months since the initial injury. The Giants are targeting Week 1, though head coach John Harbaugh acknowledged it isn't guaranteed and Nabers could begin the year on the PUP list, which would cost him the first four games at minimum. Even if he plays Week 1, ACL recovery doesn't end at clearance–the ramp-up period introduces real risk of reduced production, potential setbacks, and the psychological adjustment of returning to game speed after a serious knee injury. He's going as the WR9 overall, which is a steep draft capital to use on a player who could miss the start of the season and faces legitimate uncertainty for weeks after returning. The floor of this pick is a frustrating, injury-managed half-season. The talent is real; the risk is terrifying.
| NYG | 235 |
| WR106 | Mitchell Tinsley | CIN | 226 |
| WR107 | Kameron Johnson | TB | 226 |
| WR108 | Michael Bandy | DEN | 226 |
| WR109 | Isaiah Hodgins | NYG | 226 |
| WR110 | Cedric Tillman | CLE | 226 |
| WR111 | Ladd McConkey
Draft Note by John Paulsen
McConkey's 2025 was a clear step back from his outstanding rookie campaign. He finished WR26 overall at 9.2 points per game, which was down from WR13 and 12.4 points per game in 2024. He caught 66 of 102 targets for 789 yards and six touchdowns in 16 games. Even in a disappointing year, the PFF underlying metrics paint a portrait of a solid possession receiver: 57th percentile route grade, 52nd percentile YPRR, and his 87th-percentile avoided tackle rate is genuinely good. The reason for optimism is the potential for more targets and a change in offensive philosophy with new OC Mike McDaniel at the helm. Keenan Allen's departure removes 100-plus targets from the Chargers' receiving corps, which might help McConkey even though he only saw a six-target drop from his rookie to sophomore season. McDaniel leans heavily on two-WR sets and that will typically help the two receivers who are on the field since they are now competing with a second tight end or a fullback for targets. McDaniel likes having a fullback on the field and this offseason, and the Chargers signed Alec Ingold right on cue. McConkey had a 92nd-percentile YPRR and an 82nd-percentile route grade as a rookie, so he’s done it before. With Allen out of the way and McDaniel calling the shots, I’m expecting a bounceback season into high-end WR2 territory.
| LAC | 218 |
| WR112 | Dontayvion Wicks | PHI | 218 |
| WR113 | Roman Wilson | PIT | 210 |
| WR114 | Rashee Rice
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Rice is one of the more compelling per-game profiles in fantasy football, with a complicated off-field situation worth tracking closely. When he's on the field, he's elite. In eight games last season after returning from a six-game NFL suspension, he averaged 15.5 fantasy points per game, or WR3 on a per-game basis. The PFF metrics back up the production: a 99th percentile YAC per reception (8.1) and 89th percentile YPRR (2.15) among qualified receivers, with a 78th percentile route grade to round it out. The 2024 pre-injury sample tells the same story. He was the WR3 per game across three healthy weeks before tearing an LCL in Week 4. His role is unique: a 4.9 average depth of target with elite YAC, meaning the Chiefs essentially use him as an extension of the run game, getting him the ball quickly and letting him create yards in space. The volume and the role generate elite per-game scoring.
The off-field picture is much more complicated. In April, the NFL closed its investigation into civil-suit abuse allegations from Rice's former girlfriend and announced he would not face additional discipline beyond his already-served six-game 2025 suspension. However, in mid-May, Dallas County court records indicated Rice violated his probation from his 2024 hit-and-run case with a positive THC test and has been ordered to serve a 30-day jail sentence, with a release date of June 16, 2026. Complicating matters, he underwent a “clean-up” procedure on his knee just before being sent to prison. That should still leave him available for training camp, but it's a developing situation worth monitoring. Prior to the probation violation, he was the WR8, and it may take some time for his ADP to adjust. There’s real risk of another suspension, though it’s possible that he’ll serve his 30 days and be free to play the entire season.
| KC | 202 |
| WR115 | Isaac TeSlaa | DET | 202 |
| WR116 | Jalen Coker | CAR | 202 |
| WR117 | Xavier Hutchinson | HOU | 202 |
| WR118 | Xavier Worthy
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Worthy's Year 2 was disappointing. He finished WR55 overall at 6.4 points per game in 14 games–one touchdown, seven games under seven points, and not a single game over 15. His ESPN scores tell a stark story: 17th-percentile OPEN, 11th-percentile CATCH, 8th-percentile YAC, and a 6th-percentile OVERALL that puts him near the bottom of the 110-receiver sample despite playing with Patrick Mahomes. The per-route efficiency was equally underwhelming–46th-percentile route grade, 43rd-percentile YPRR. When he does get the ball, there's some juice there (86th-percentile avoided tackle rate), but he's not generating enough opportunities to make it matter for fantasy. His upside is almost entirely tied to Rashee Rice's availability, and the data says even that needle doesn't move much. Worthy averaged 5.0 targets per game with Rice in the lineup and 5.8 without. Kansas City has 114 vacated WR targets (36.3% of WR volume), so there is a chance that Worthy’s role will grow organically. The Rice situation adds real uncertainty: Rice recently had knee cleanup surgery and is serving a 30-day sentence for a parole violation stemming from his 2024 legal case–release date reportedly June 16. Whether the NFL levies an additional suspension is unclear and adds another layer of unpredictability. If Rice misses meaningful time, Worthy's volume could tick up further than the historical split suggests.
| KC | 186 |
| WR119 | Bryce Oliver | TEN | 186 |
| WR120 | Jordan Whittington | LAR | 186 |
| WR121 | Jaylin Lane | WAS | 178 |
| WR122 | Josh Downs
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Start with the ESPN OPEN score: 89th percentile, meaning Downs is getting free against coverage at a near-elite rate–right in the company of Malik Nabers and just ahead of CeeDee Lamb in a 110-receiver sample. That's the foundation of what Matt Harmon of Reception Perception saw last summer when he called Downs "a near superstar player who can do much more than your typical slot-based receiver" while suggesting he could feature in an offense in the same way Amon-Ra St. Brown does. Downs’ 79th percentile PFF route grade backs it up. He started his career with 68-771-2 and 72-803-5, and a 1,000-yard season felt inevitable. Then Alec Pierce had the breakout season while Downs finished WR48 overall at 6.7 points per game in 2025. The OVERALL score (60th percentile) makes the disconnect clear: he wins against coverage but the YAC (17th percentile) hasn't matched the separation. Michael Pittman is out of the way and Downs enters 2026 as the Colts' de facto WR1b. The opportunity he's been waiting for is here. The bet is that the volume closes the gap–more targets, more chances to convert the separation into production. The good news is that in the 28 games where Downs has played at least 40 snaps, he has averaged 5.1 catches for 55 yards and 0.29 touchdowns on 7.4 targets, or 9.8 fantasy points per game. Those are low-end WR3 numbers and his role could be even bigger than that. At a WR48 ADP in the ninth round, you don't need him to be Amon-Ra. You need him to look like his 2024 self with a bigger slice of the target pie.
| IND | 178 |
| WR123 | Ryan Flournoy | DAL | 170 |
| WR124 | Derius Davis | LAC | 170 |
| WR125 | Devaughn Vele | NO | 170 |
| WR126 | Dont'e Thornton | LV | 170 |
| WR127 | Jordan Watkins | SF | 154 |
| WR128 | Xavier Legette | CAR | 146 |
| WR129 | Jake Bobo | SEA | 146 |
| WR130 | Elic Ayomanor | TEN | 146 |
| WR131 | Malachi Corley | CLE | 146 |
| WR132 | Troy Franklin | DEN | 146 |
| WR133 | Xavier Weaver | ARI | 146 |
| WR134 | Isaiah Williams | NYJ | 146 |
| WR135 | Malik Washington | MIA | 146 |
| WR136 | Jahdae Walker | CHI | 138 |
| WR137 | Pat Bryant | DEN | 138 |
| WR138 | Tez Johnson | TB | 121 |
| WR139 | Chimere Dike | TEN | 113 |
| WR140 | Mason Tipton | NO | 113 |
| WR141 | Jalen Royals | KC | 113 |
| WR142 | Konata Mumpfield | LAR | 113 |
| WR143 | Tai Felton | MIN | 113 |
| WR144 | Jimmy Horn | CAR | 113 |
| WR145 | Tre' Harris | LAC | 113 |
| WR146 | KeAndre Lambert-Smith | LAC | 113 |
| WR147 | Arian Smith | NYJ | 113 |
| WR148 | Deion Burks | IND | 65 |
| WR149 | Brenen Thompson | LAC | 65 |
| WR150 | Colbie Young | CIN | 65 |
| WR151 | Ke'Shawn Williams | CIN | 65 |
| WR152 | Bryce Lance | NO | 65 |
| WR153 | KC Concepcion
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Concepcion is the most well-rounded receiver in the 2026 class on paper. He transferred from NC State to Texas A&M and posted 61 catches for 919 yards and nine touchdowns in the SEC–a 15.1 yards per catch average that reflects his big-play ability. The PFF college metrics confirm the range: a 91st-percentile receiving grade, 88th-percentile yards per route run (2.46), 89th-percentile contested catch rate (66.7%), and 89th-percentile YAC per reception (7.2)–four key metrics all landing in the top 11% of the position simultaneously. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception was effusive: Concepcion's profile was nearly "all-green" in every route category, demolishing man and press coverage, producing reliably against zone, and winning above the rim and in space. The scheme flexibility is a real asset too–he split time between outside (65%) and slot (34%) alignment. The landing spot is the entire problem for 2026. Cleveland's quarterback situation heading into the summer–Shedeur Sanders, Deshaun Watson, and Dillon Gabriel competing for a job on a team that posted the worst passer rating in the NFL last season–puts a worrisome ceiling on any receiver's first-year output. Concepcion has the talent to flourish as a WR1/WR2 in a functional passing game; he just doesn't have one yet. It’s going to take competent quarterback play to unlock Concepcion’s potential.
| CLE | 65 |
| WR154 | Cyrus Allen | KC | 65 |
| WR155 | Chris Brazzell II | CAR | 65 |
| WR156 | Elijah Sarratt | BAL | 65 |
| WR157 | Kaden Wetjen | PIT | 65 |
| WR158 | Myles Price | MIN | 65 |
| WR159 | Emmanuel Henderson | SEA | 65 |
| WR160 | Ja'Kobi Lane | BAL | 65 |
| WR161 | Malachi Fields | NYG | 65 |
| WR162 | Zachariah Branch | ATL | 65 |
| WR163 | Skyler Bell | BUF | 65 |
| WR164 | Denzel Boston | CLE | 65 |
| WR165 | Caleb Douglas | MIA | 65 |
| WR166 | JP Richardson | CHI | 65 |
| WR167 | Jordyn Tyson
Draft Note by John Paulsen
The production metrics from Tyson’s limited college sample hold up under scrutiny: a 97th-percentile PFF receiving grade (85.3) and 84th-percentile yards per route run (2.37), and he drew 97 targets on 300 routes–a target-earning rate that should translate to the NFL. He lined up primarily outside (75% wide rate) but showed enough slot versatility (25%) to project as a movable piece at the next level. The contested catch rate (38th percentile) and YAC per reception (35th percentile) are the limitations–Tyson wins with route craft and target volume rather than physicality or creating YAC. As Matt Harmon of Reception Perception frames it, an Amari Cooper comparison comes to mind: a first-round talent who can be a quality complementary receiver and has a realistic path to "rounding into a steadier player with the right coaching.” Alongside Chris Olave, Tyson gives Tyler Shough a genuine 1-2 punch in Year 2 of the Kellen Moore offense. The eight receivers since 2010 that have been drafted in the 1.06-1.10 range and played 15+ games have averaged 78-988-6.0 on an average of 128 targets. He's going as the WR31, which despite those rookie averages, seems a little early given some of the other more-proven options still on the board at that point in fantasy drafts.
| NO | 65 |
| WR168 | De'Zhaun Stribling | SF | 65 |
| WR169 | Chris Bell | MIA | 65 |
| WR170 | Omar Cooper Jr. | NYJ | 65 |
| WR171 | Ted Hurst | TB | 65 |
| WR172 | Kevin Coleman | MIA | 65 |
| WR173 | Malik Benson | LV | 65 |
| WR174 | Darius Cooper | PHI | 65 |
| WR175 | Antonio Williams
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Williams is a slot receiver in its most refined form. He ran 93% of his routes from the slot at Clemson and the efficiency in that role was real: a 90th-percentile PFF receiving grade, 81st-percentile yards per route run (2.27), and an 11th-percentile aDOT (7.7) that tells you exactly what he is and isn't. He wins underneath, catches everything–76.4% catch rate, one drop on the season–and moves the chains. As Matt Harmon puts it, he's a "high-volume slot option you can set your watch by"–winning against man and zone, reliable across all levels, non-flashy but dependable. The Washington fit is legitimately interesting. As Littlefinger once observed, chaos is a ladder, and the Commanders' WR depth chart behind Terry McLaurin is deeply chaotic–Treylon Burks, Luke McCaffrey, Dyami Brown, Jaylin Lane, Van Jefferson. Williams' primary competition in the slot is former third-rounder McCaffrey and fourth-rounder Lane; anyone who wins that job inherits Deebo Samuel's vacated slot snaps in a Jayden Daniels offense that distributes heavily underneath. Daniels' accuracy and willingness to check down is a natural complement to Williams' short-area game. The ceiling is genuinely capped by the 7.7 aDOT profile–he needs 80-plus targets to matter in fantasy and won't produce many explosive plays–but in a PPR format with a fully healthy Daniels throwing him the ball, he could be a viable weekly WR3 if he plays starter’s snaps. Keep an eye on Washington’s camp competition in the slot.
| WAS | 65 |
| WR176 | Carnell Tate
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Tate posted a 98th-percentile PFF receiving grade (89.0), 97th-percentile yards per route run (3.02), and a 97th-percentile contested catch rate (85.7%) coming out of Ohio State, and didn't drop a pass. He's a big-bodied X receiver who wins downfield (84th-percentile aDOT of 14.6) and lined up outside on 89% of his routes, with a 21st-percentile slot rate that tells you he's a boundary alpha by design rather than a scheme creation. He ran a 4.53 forty at the combine, but as Matt Harmon of Reception Perception noted, "a refined technician who is an explosive option downfield can become a featured weapon," and Tate's game is built more on tracking and catching than on creating separation with pure speed. Harmon compared him directly to Tetairoa McMillan from last year's class, who was drafted top-ten and delivered a solid rookie season in Carolina as an instant real-world WR1. The Tennessee landing spot works even if it’s not ideal. The Titans have 60 vacated WR targets (20.3% of WR volume) and a significant 1,147 vacated air yards (30.9%). Tate's downfield game slots directly into that vacancy. Pairing him with Wan'Dale Robinson in the slot gives Cam Ward a genuine 1-2 punch: Tate commanding targets on intermediate and deep routes while Robinson works underneath. Tennessee's defense is unlikely to win enough games to limit the offense’s aggressiveness, and history is on Tate’s side–the 14 receivers drafted in the top 10 and played at least 15 games as rookies averaged 74-1016-6.6, or midrange fantasy WR2 numbers. He's going as the WR30, so if things click with Ward, and he stays healthy, Tate is a real threat to return better value than that.
| TEN | 65 |
| WR177 | Germie Bernard | PIT | 65 |
| WR178 | Josh Cameron | JAX | 65 |
| WR179 | Jeshaun Jones | MIN | 65 |
| WR180 | CJ Daniels | LAR | 65 |
| WR181 | Zavion Thomas | CHI | 65 |
| WR182 | Makai Lemon | PHI | 65 |
| TE1 | George Kittle
Draft Note by John Paulsen
When Kittle is healthy, there's an argument he's the most complete tight end in the game. His ESPN OVERALL score (100th percentile) and PFF pass route grade (100th percentile) were both the best in the entire TE sample last season—and this was in only 10 games before a torn Achilles ended his year. In those 10 games, he averaged 12.8 points per game, TE2 on a per-game basis. In 2024, he was the overall TE1 at 13.9 per game over 14 games. His YPRR (2.15, 95th percentile) and his contested catch rate (84.6%, 92nd percentile) confirm that he's an elite route runner and a physical mismatch when the ball is in the air. The 49ers added Mike Evans and Christian Kirk to replace Jauan Jennings, and Brock Purdy's 98th percentile CPOE should give us plenty of confidence that Kittle will continue to receive quality targets. The torn Achilles recovery is the entire story. He could miss the start of the season, and the timeline matters enormously at his current TE10 ADP—a price that gives you significant upside if he plays 13-plus games and a frustrating experience if he misses the first month and/or the injury lingers deep into the season. Draft him knowing you'll need a streaming plan for the early weeks, and that you're paying a discounted price on one of the best players at the position when he's right. And he might be right by the fantasy playoffs.
| SF | 608 |
| TE2 | Harold Fannin
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Fannin's rookie season was one of the more quietly impressive debuts at the position—he finished TE5 overall in 16 games while playing for one of the least functional offenses in the league. He caught 72 of 103 targets for 731 yards and six touchdowns, and his PFF pass route grade (80th percentile) and YPRR (1.68, 78th percentile) both suggest he was doing real work as a route runner despite playing through significant QB instability. The standout metric is his avoided tackle rate—0.31 per reception, 97th percentile among tight ends—meaning Fannin is a legitimate YAC weapon who can turn short throws into meaningful gains even when the quarterback can't push the ball downfield. The issue with his profile is the ESPN receiver scores. His OPEN score (16th percentile) and OVERALL score (22nd percentile) suggest he isn't consistently winning clean against coverage. He compensates through YAC rather than pure separation. David Njoku's departure makes Fannin an every-down player, and a Browns team expected to trail most weeks means the volume should be there. The quarterback situation is the entire ceiling question. Shedeur Sanders, Deshaun Watson, and Dillon Gabriel are vying for the starting job, with Sanders in the pole position. The good news there is that Fannin’s numbers–4.7 catches for 52 yards and 0.67 touchdowns–were much better with Sanders at quarterback. Fannin should develop into an every-week weapon if the quarterback situation settles. He's going as a top-six tight end, and that price is defensible on volume alone. Whether he's an elite TE1 or a target-share mirage depends almost entirely on the passer.
| CLE | 576 |
| TE3 | Kyle Pitts
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Pitts finally delivered on a fraction of his draft pedigree in 2025, finishing as the overall TE2 with 88 receptions, 928 yards, and five touchdowns on 114 targets. The PFF metrics confirm the underlying talent is real: 86th-percentile route grade and 83rd-percentile YPRR among qualified tight ends. The ESPN receiver scores tell a more nuanced story—49th percentile in OPEN, 71st percentile OVERALL—suggesting that Pitts wins through size and athleticism rather than pure separation, which aligns with the trajectory of his career. The concern is the volatility that shadowed him even in a TE2 season: only six of 16 games went over 10 points, and five went under five. Both Bijan Robinson and Drake London will continue to act as a volume ceiling. In fact, Pitts’s scoring output doubled in the five games that London missed (7.4 vs. 15.5). Pitts is going as the TE7, which reflects the 2025 output without fully pricing in the inconsistency. He's a legitimate every-week starter who will frustrate you in the weeks when the touchdowns don't come.
| ATL | 512 |
| TE4 | Travis Kelce
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Kelce remains one of the most reliable tight ends in the league, which is a strange thing to say about a 36-year-old, but the numbers keep showing up. He's finished TE4 and TE6 the last two seasons–TE7 and TE8 on a per-game basis–while playing 33 of 34 games. His ESPN OPEN score (87th percentile) says he's still getting free in coverage, his PFF route grade (73rd percentile) is strong, and the YAC (72nd percentile) shows he's still functional as a run-after-catch option. The Chiefs' offense has evolved, with Rashee Rice healthy, Xavier Worthy as a genuine vertical threat, and Kenneth Walker replacing Isiah Pacheco at running back. Whether Kelce retains the same volume in a more balanced attack is the open question. He's going as the TE12, and two straight years of TE7-8 per game production for a player available in the double-digit rounds is reasonable value even if the ceiling is limited at this point in his career.
| KC | 480 |
| TE5 | Terrance Ferguson | LAR | 480 |
| TE6 | Tyler Warren
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Warren's rookie numbers present an interesting puzzle. He finished TE7 overall in his first NFL season but only TE11 on a per-game basis at 9.1 points per game, and his ESPN receiver scores were near the bottom of the tight end sample—9th percentile in OPEN score and 8th percentile OVERALL—suggesting he struggled to consistently create separation against NFL coverage. At the same time, his PFF metrics told a different story: 75th percentile in YPRR and an 88th percentile YAC per reception, indicating that when he did get the ball, he did real damage. The 68th percentile route grade for a rookie is respectable and suggests the foundation is there for improvement. He also runs a high percentage of routes from the slot (68th percentile), which helps. The disconnect between the ESPN and the PFF productivity metrics isn't unusual for a rookie TE learning to navigate NFL coverage—the YPRR and YAC numbers suggest the tools are real.
| IND | 448 |
| TE7 | Colston Loveland
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Loveland's rookie season is a case study in talent that took a while to show up on the field. He finished TE14 overall and TE18 per game at 7.7 points per game, but his underlying metrics rank among the elite at the position. His PFF pass route grade (97th percentile) and YPRR (1.86, 92nd percentile) are both near the top of the tight end sample, and his ESPN OPEN score (68th percentile) suggests he’s able to shed coverage consistently. There’s a long list of tight ends who have broken out in their sophomore year, and the signs are there. From Week 9 on, he was the overall TE2 behind Trey McBride. He's currently going as the third tight end off the board, and the market is essentially pricing in a breakout that appears to have already begun.
| CHI | 448 |
| TE8 | Cole Kmet | CHI | 448 |
| TE9 | Mark Andrews
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Andrews' 2025 was one of the more puzzling statistical profiles at the position. He finished TE16 overall and TE23 per game at just 6.5 points per game, and ten of 16 games went under five points. And yet his ESPN OPEN score was 100th percentile, the best in the entire TE sample, meaning he was getting free against coverage at an elite rate. The disconnect traces directly to role and opportunity. Isaiah Likely's presence absorbed significant target share, Andrews never established a consistent volume baseline, and his YAC per reception (2nd percentile) tells you his role was limited to short catches with minimal room to operate after the catch. His 40th-percentile YPRR is average, and with Likely gone and Andrews as the unquestioned TE1 in Baltimore's offense, the target share could climb significantly. In the four games over the last two seasons that Andrews has played without Likely in the lineup, he has averaged an 81% snap share, 3.5 receptions, 42 yards, and 0.75 touchdowns. The 11th-round ADP is appealing for a player who finished TE5 and TE7 per game in 2024. At 31, he should still have a couple of good seasons left as tight ends tend to age gracefully. He's one of the better value plays at the position.
| BAL | 448 |
| TE10 | Evan Engram | DEN | 416 |
| TE11 | Ian Thomas | LV | 384 |
| TE12 | Juwan Johnson
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Johnson had the best season of his career in 2025, finishing TE10 overall at 8.5 points per game, which was a significant jump from his TE23 finish in 2024. He caught 77 of 102 targets for 889 yards and three touchdowns, with the volume reflecting both his expanded role and the relatively thin Saints' receiving corps around Tyler Shough. The ESPN scores back up the production: 83rd percentile OPEN score, 67th percentile OVERALL. His PFF YPRR (79th percentile) and slot rate (84th percentile) confirm what he is—a reliable middle-of-the-field target. The Saints drafted Jordyn Tyson, who immediately becomes a legitimate weapon opposite Chris Olave and should command meaningful target share. That's the entire question for Johnson's 2026: how much of the volume that drove his TE10 finish gets reallocated to Tyson and the established receivers, and how much stays in the middle of the field. He's going as a TE2 in the late rounds, and that price assumes some target share regression with the upgraded WR room. If Shough leans on Johnson as the security blanket and the touchdowns regress positively from three, there's a TE1 ceiling here. If Tyson eats into the targets that were going to Johnson, he settles back into a low-end TE2.
| NO | 384 |
| TE13 | Adam Trautman | DEN | 384 |
| TE14 | Foster Moreau | HOU | 384 |
| TE15 | Devin Culp | TB | 384 |
| TE16 | Hunter Henry
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Henry is one of the better values at the position given his current ADP. He's finished TE9 and TE12 the last two seasons while catching 60 passes for 768 yards and seven touchdowns last year. His ESPN OPEN score (87th percentile), his PFF route grade (75th percentile) and his YPRR (68th percentile) are all legitimately good, and his 8.8 per-game average last season was better than several tight ends going two rounds ahead of him. The departure of Austin Hooper clears the depth chart, making Henry the unquestioned primary tight end option in an offense that is actively improving. Drake Maye's 100th percentile CPOE and 100th percentile EPA last season suggest he's developing into one of the better young passers in the league, and if A.J. Brown arrives, the attention that the receiver commands will create cleaner opportunities underneath for Henry. At a TE20 ADP–mid-to-late-round range–for a player at the end of his prime still delivering consistent TE9-to-TE12 production, Henry is the kind of late-round value that can provide baseline production, allowing managers to load up on talent elsewhere.
| NE | 384 |
| TE17 | T.J. Hockenson
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Hockenson's first fully healthy season since his ACL tear was disappointing on every level. He finished TE23 overall at 5.8 points per game with 51 receptions for 438 yards and three touchdowns on 64 targets in 15 games, which was a far cry from the elite TE1 production he posted in 2023 before the injury. The PFF metrics are unflattering across the board: a 36th-percentile route grade, an 18th-percentile YPRR, and a 5.2 average depth of target that confirms his role was reduced to short looks. The ESPN OPEN score (60th percentile) is at least functional, suggesting he was getting some separation, but the OVERALL score (30th percentile) reflects what the volume and efficiency numbers say–he wasn't getting the looks or making enough of them when he did. The interesting wrinkle for 2026 is the QB change. Kyler Murray replaces J.J. McCarthy, bringing a mobile, off-script element that often benefits tight ends through broken plays and second-reaction scrambles. Jauan Jennings adds another reliable target underneath, which might compress Hockenson's middle-of-the-field role. He's going as a TE2 in the late rounds, and the upside is real if the Murray-Hockenson connection clicks and his role expands. The floor is another disappointing season if the underlying efficiency numbers don't improve.
| MIN | 384 |
| TE18 | Andrew Ogletree | IND | 384 |
| TE19 | Austin Hooper | ATL | 384 |
| TE20 | Mike Gesicki | CIN | 384 |
| TE21 | Mo Alie-Cox | IND | 384 |
| TE22 | Noah Fant | NO | 384 |
| TE23 | Will Mallory | IND | 384 |
| TE24 | Chris Manhertz | NYG | 384 |
| TE25 | David Njoku | LAC | 384 |
| TE26 | Dallas Goedert
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Goedert's TE3 finish in 2025 was built almost entirely on touchdowns—11 of them, tied with Trey McBride for the most at their position. He played the most games (15) since 2021, catching 60 passes for 591 yards on 78 targets, which is solid volume, but the underlying metrics are not those of a top-three tight end. His ESPN OPEN score (21st percentile) and OVERALL score (16th percentile) were near the bottom of the TE sample, while his PFF route grade (58th percentile) and YPRR (48th percentile) were better, but not elite by any means. The 11 scores were a career-high and one fewer than the previous four seasons combined. He's currently being drafted as a midrange TE2, which seems a little given how inevitable the A.J. Brown trade seems to be. Without Brown commanding targets, Goedert stands to inherit more usage, which would supplement a potential regression in touchdowns with more consistent yardage and make him a less volatile weekly option. As it stands, he's a touchdown-dependent TE2 with TE1 upside attached to a roster move that hasn't happened yet. If Brown is traded, then Goedert will be an intriguing value in the later rounds.
| PHI | 384 |
| TE27 | Tucker Kraft
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Kraft was one of my favorite middle-round values last year and if his ADP lingers in the sixth or seventh round this season, he’s going to be my primary target at the position. The ACL tear that ended his season in Week 9 may have obscured one of the most impressive statistical profiles at the tight end position. In seven games before the injury, he averaged 14.0 points per game—the overall TE1 on a per-game basis—and was playing at a 73-catch, 1139-yard, 14.6-touchdown pace. The PFF metrics were historic for a player in just his second full year: 99th percentile in YPRR (2.33) and 100th percentile in YAC per reception (10.8) among tight ends. His 90th percentile route grade suggests this wasn't a small-sample fluke—he was creating separation and turning targets into big plays at an elite rate. His ESPN OVERALL score (89th percentile) and the 86th-percentile avoided tackle rate further reinforce the profile. Kraft is on track to return for Week 1, but at a seventh-round ADP, the value is significant if he comes back near full health. You're getting a player who was producing at a TE1 per-game pace before the injury for a fraction of the price of the tier above him.
| GB | 384 |
| TE28 | Dawson Knox | BUF | 352 |
| TE29 | Daniel Bellinger | TEN | 352 |
| TE30 | Tyler Conklin | DET | 352 |
| TE31 | Grant Calcaterra | PHI | 320 |
| TE32 | Elijah Arroyo | SEA | 320 |
| TE33 | Dalton Schultz
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Schultz quietly put together a strong 2025 season that the broader fantasy community didn't fully recognize. He finished TE12 overall at 8.0 points per game with 82 receptions on 106 targets for 777 yards and three touchdowns—real volume in a Texans offense that funnels short-area work through the tight end position. The ESPN scores are genuinely elite: 95th percentile in OPEN score and 94th percentile in OVERALL, both of which point to a player consistently winning his routes against coverage. His PFF route grade (78th percentile) and drop rate (83rd percentile) confirm he's reliable in the role. The areas that hold him back are YAC per reception (28th percentile) and contested catch rate (15th percentile)—he isn't going to make things happen after the catch or win contested catches, which keeps a ceiling on his big-week potential. The touchdown count of three was unusually low relative to his volume, and positive regression there alone could push him into the TE1 conversation. The variable to watch is Tank Dell's potential return. If Dell comes back healthy and reclaims a meaningful target share alongside Nico Collins, Jayden Higgins, and rookie additions, Schultz's volume could come under pressure. As is, he's going as a TE2 in the late rounds and represents one of the safer floors at the position. He’s a reasonable-floor pick whose ceiling is capped by the YAC and contested catch limitations rather than the volume.
| HOU | 288 |
| TE34 | Pat Freiermuth
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Freiermuth's 2025 was a disappointing step back. After a TE10 finish in 2024 at 7.3 points per game, he dropped to TE25 at 5.4 points per game despite playing all 16 games—41 receptions for 486 yards and four touchdowns on just 53 targets. The volume cratered, and the ESPN data tells you why: his OPEN score sits at the 4th percentile, meaning he was among the worst in the league at consistently creating separation. The PFF metrics are more forgiving—a 79th-percentile drop rate, 63rd-percentile YPRR, and a high 93rd-percentile slot rate that frames him in a reliable role. The 84th-percentile YAC per reception shows he can still do damage with the ball in his hands. The setup heading into 2026 is interesting. Jonnu Smith is out of the way, which clears the snap count, but Darnell Washington may emerge with the athletic profile to absorb a meaningful chunk of the secondary TE role. Mike McCarthy's offense should be slightly more pass-heavy than recent Pittsburgh attacks, and Aaron Rodgers provides plenty of experience at quarterback.
| PIT | 288 |
| TE35 | Durham Smythe | BAL | 288 |
| TE36 | Kylen Granson | TEN | 288 |
| TE37 | Eric Saubert | SEA | 288 |
| TE38 | Elijah Higgins | ARI | 288 |
| TE39 | Tyler Higbee | LAR | 288 |
| TE40 | Charlie Woerner | ATL | 288 |
| TE41 | Isaiah Likely
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Likely spent last year as the clear second tight end in Baltimore behind Mark Andrews, and his 34 targets in 13 games reflects his role, not his ability. His ESPN OPEN score (68th percentile) and contested catch rate (79th percentile) both point to a functional receiver, and in 2024, when he had more opportunity in Baltimore, he finished TE16 overall at 6.5 points per game. Now he heads to New York to reunite with John Harbaugh as the projected TE1 in a Giants offense built around Jaxson Dart. Malik Nabers will command the lion's share of the attention, but the TE role in Dart's operation should generate consistent underneath looks. The competition with Theo Johnson is worth monitoring; Johnson finished TE15 overall in 2025 and is an athletic player in his own right, though his route grade (57th percentile) and YPRR (44th percentile) suggest he's not a polished route runner yet. Likely's PFF route grade (17th percentile) isn't reassuring either, so this is a volume-over-efficiency play at a position where the volume is genuine, assuming he wins the job. One encouraging note: In the 19 career games where he’s played at least 40 snaps, he has averaged 3.5-42-0.53, or 9.1 fantasy points per game, which are low-end TE1 numbers. He's going around TE15, which is a fair-to-aggressive price for a player moving into his first true TE1 role with an ascending quarterback. The Giants will throw to the tight end—the question is whether it's mostly Likely or split more evenly than the market expects.
| NYG | 288 |
| TE42 | Noah Gray | KC | 288 |
| TE43 | Oronde Gadsden
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Gadsden took on the TE1 role in Los Angeles last season and delivered a mixed result—TE17 overall, TE19 per game at 7.4 points per game over 14 games, with significant volatility on both ends. He had a 25.9-point explosion but also six games under five points. His YPRR (1.66, 76th percentile) was genuinely solid for a first-year starter, and his contested catch rate (66.7%, 78th percentile) shows he can come down with the football when challenged. The big issue now is the signing of David Njoku, who arrives as a proven TE1-caliber player and immediately complicates Gadsden's target security. Gadsden's value last season was entirely predicated on being the primary option at the position, so if Njoku absorbs the red zone work, Gadsden’s potential breakout season just isn’t going to happen. Post Njoku signing, he's now going as the TE15, which better reflects his current situation as a riskier TE2 in a potential timeshare. Proceed with caution until the role is defined.
| LAC | 288 |
| TE44 | James Mitchell | CAR | 288 |
| TE45 | Dalton Kincaid
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Kincaid's per-game profile in 2025 was legitimately elite. In 11 games, he averaged 9.1 points while posting a 100th-percentile YPRR (2.79) and 95th-percentile PFF route grade–the best YPRR in the entire tight end sample. His ESPN OVERALL score (98th percentile) and OPEN score (95th percentile) are both at the top of the position. When Kincaid was on the field with Josh Allen, he was one of the most productive receiving tight ends in the league. The rub is the 12 games in 2025 and 13 in 2024–he hasn't yet strung together a full healthy season, and the Bills' offense is a little more crowded with D.J. Moore now in the room alongside Khalil Shakir. Kincaid is going as the TE13, and that price represents a bet on a player with the efficiency markers of a top-five tight end who hasn’t recently been able to stay healthy long enough to prove it over a full year. If Kincaid plays 15-plus games in 2026, his underlying metrics suggest he could run away with a top-10 season. Discount accordingly for the health risk, but don't lose sight of the fact that the production when healthy has been exceptional.
| BUF | 288 |
| TE46 | Tanner Hudson | CIN | 288 |
| TE47 | Colby Parkinson | LAR | 288 |
| TE48 | Drew Sample | CIN | 288 |
| TE49 | Tommy Tremble | CAR | 288 |
| TE50 | John Bates | WAS | 288 |
| TE51 | Josh Oliver | MIN | 288 |
| TE52 | Luke Farrell | SF | 288 |
| TE53 | Chigoziem Okonkwo
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Okonkwo has spent three NFL seasons in Tennessee waiting for a quarterback to unlock his clear athletic profile, and now he gets one after a change of scenery. He arrives in Washington with Jayden Daniels under center and Zach Ertz out of the way, giving him the first realistic path to a TE1 season. The traits have always been there—a 92nd-percentile speed score plus a 93rd-percentile avoided tackle rate that puts him among the position's better YAC threats. His ESPN OPEN score (68th percentile) suggests he can create separation, and his contested catch rate (84th percentile) and YAC per reception (86th percentile) are both genuine strengths. The PFF route grade (50th percentile) and YPRR (46th percentile) are unspectacular, but they came in an offense that limited his role and was rarely throwing in advantageous situations. Daniels' efficiency and the upgraded receiving corps around him should create cleaner looks underneath that Okonkwo's athleticism can exploit. He's a late-round pick with a path to real fantasy relevance.
| WAS | 288 |
| TE54 | Greg Dulcich
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Dulcich's advanced metrics in limited 2025 action were genuinely elite–97th-percentile YPRR (2.31), 98th-percentile YAC per reception (7.5), and an 85th-percentile route grade among qualified tight ends. His ESPN OVERALL score (92nd percentile) and OPEN score (79th percentile) both back up the production. The problem has been availability: he's played just 17 NFL games over the last two seasons combined, and the injuries have been the entire story of his career to this point. The Miami situation, though, is unusually favorable, at least from an opportunity standpoint. Darren Waller is out of the way, and the Dolphins' receiving corps is in flux–rookies Chris Bell and Caleb Douglas, Malik Washington, and free agent additions Jalen Tolbert and Tutu Atwell give Tua Tagovailoa a wide-open and unproven group of pass-catchers to throw to. If Dulcich can stay on the field, the route-running and YAC efficiency he showed in 2025 could translate into a meaningful target share in an offense that desperately needs reliable receiving options. He's going as a deep-league TE2, and at that price, the upside is significant relative to the cost. The health is the entire bet.
| MIA | 256 |
| TE55 | Jeremy Ruckert | NYJ | 256 |
| TE56 | Trey McBride
Draft Note by John Paulsen
McBride's 2025 campaign was about as dominant as a tight end season gets. He finished as the overall TE1 for the second consecutive year at 15.2 points per game—up from 11.9 per game in 2024—with 126 receptions, 1,239 yards, and 11 touchdowns on 163 targets. The underlying metrics back up every bit of it. McBride ranked in the 93rd percentile in PFF pass route grade and 88th in yards per route run (1.78 YPRR) among tight ends with meaningful playing time. He ran 62.8 percent of his routes from the slot—95th percentile—which explains the volume; he's a mismatch nightmare in the middle of the field. His ESPN OVERALL score (86th percentile) confirms the production, even if his OPEN score (45th percentile) suggests he's not consistently beating coverage so much as leveraging his positioning and Jacoby Brissett's trust to generate catches. He also did damage with the ball in his hands, avoiding tackles at an 88th percentile rate. The one area that doesn't pop is YAC per reception (50th percentile), but with 126 catches, he doesn't need to be a run-after-catch threat to dominate fantasy. He's going as a top-two tight end and has every metric to justify being the consensus TE1.
| ARI | 256 |
| TE57 | Cade Otton
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Otton is one of the more interesting late-round bets at the position thanks to a specific and well-documented opportunity profile. He finished TE30 overall in 2025 at just 4.9 points per game—a meaningful step back from his TE13 finish in 2024—largely because of touchdown regression. He caught 59 of 80 targets for 572 yards but scored just one touchdown, which torpedoed what would have otherwise been a productive volume season. The underlying metrics are mixed: a 75th-percentile ESPN OPEN score suggests he gets open at a reasonable rate, but his PFF route grade (16th percentile) and YPRR (24th percentile) point to inefficiency on a per-snap basis. His slot rate (81st percentile) and short 5.1 average depth of target frame him as an underneath option who profits from volume rather than from creating big plays.
The reason he matters in 2026 is Mike Evans' departure. In the 12 games Evans has missed over the last two seasons, Otton has averaged 6.6 targets, 4.8 catches, 44 yards, and 0.25 touchdowns per game, which works out to 8.4 fantasy points per game, or midrange TE2 numbers. Evans wasn't just any departing receiver; he was Tampa's primary red zone threat, and the touchdowns that flowed through him should redistribute meaningfully. Chris Godwin returns from injury, Emeka Egbuka takes on a larger role, and Jalen McMillan is back, but none of those three is a Mike Evans-level red zone presence. Otton, at 6'5", is the most logical beneficiary in the end zone. He's going as a TE3 in the late rounds, and the path to a TE15 or better finish is genuinely there. He’s a solid late-round flier with positive regression baked in.
| TB | 256 |
| TE58 | Jake Ferguson
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Ferguson's TE6 finish in 2025 was driven almost entirely by volume and touchdowns. He caught 82 of 100 targets for 600 yards and eight scores, which is a productive line–but the underlying efficiency tells a more cautious story. His PFF route grade (28th percentile) and YPRR (34th percentile) are squarely below average, his YAC per reception (17th percentile) is downright bad, and his ESPN OPEN score (45th percentile) suggests he's not winning regularly against coverage. What he does is occupy the slot at a 88th percentile rate, run underneath routes, and absorb check-down volume in one of the highest-volume passing offenses in the league. Eight touchdowns in that context is a function of red zone opportunity, not individual dominance. The Cowboys' offense will keep generating targets, and Dak Prescott's trust in Ferguson as a safety valve should remain intact. He's a solid TE2 with realistic TE1 weeks when the red zone breaks right.
| DAL | 256 |
| TE59 | Brock Wright | DET | 256 |
| TE60 | Payne Durham | TB | 224 |
| TE61 | Josh Whyle | GB | 224 |
| TE62 | Sam LaPorta
Draft Note by John Paulsen
LaPorta's underlying metrics in 2025 were some of the best in the tight end sample despite playing just nine games—his 93rd-percentile YPRR (2.00), 92nd-percentile route grade, and 90th-percentile YAC per reception all reflect a player operating at a high level when healthy. He caught every contested target thrown his way and didn't drop a single pass. The per-game production tells the same story. He was theTE7 on a per-game basis in both 2024 and 2025, at 9.0 and 9.7 points respectively. The Lions' spread-it-around offense limits how high his ceiling goes. Detroit leans heavily on Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and the rushing game, which means LaPorta operates in an environment where targets are shared and touchdowns are the primary path to big weeks. He's going as the TE7, and the value proposition is a player who has been quietly elite from a per-game standpoint in limited action and should be fully healthy entering the season. LaPorta is a midrange TE1 with enough upside to function as a weekly starter when the Lions give him opportunities in the red zone.
| DET | 224 |
| TE63 | Jake Tonges | SF | 224 |
| TE64 | Brenton Strange
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Strange is a later-round dart throw with a stronger underlying case than his overall finish suggests. He dealt with injuries that wiped out a large part of his 2025 season. He appeared in just 11 games and was largely absent from Week 6 through Week 11, but from Week 12 on, he averaged 8.4 points per game, good for the TE8 in that span. The PFF metrics confirm the talent is real: 77th-percentile route grade, 71st-percentile YPRR, and an 92nd-percentile avoided tackle rate that shows genuine ability to create after the catch. His ESPN OPEN score (68th percentile) is solid, and the YAC per reception (67th percentile) is above average as well.
| JAX | 224 |
| TE65 | Davis Allen | LAR | 224 |
| TE66 | Michael Mayer | LV | 224 |
| TE67 | Luke Schoonmaker | DAL | 224 |
| TE68 | Luke Musgrave | GB | 224 |
| TE69 | Darnell Washington
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Washington is one of the more interesting athletic profiles at the position–6'7" with a 96th-percentile speed score, the kind of physical archetype that should translate into a featured receiving role at some point in his NFL career. The 2025 numbers don't yet reflect that potential: he averaged 3.6 points per game on just 43 targets. But the advanced metrics tell a more intriguing story. His YPRR (85th percentile), YAC per reception (97th percentile), and avoided tackle rate (98th percentile) are all elite–when Washington gets the ball, he creates after the catch better than nearly any TE in the league. The drop rate (7th percentile) is a real concern that he'll need to address. Jonnu Smith's departure clears the secondary TE role, and even with Pat Freiermuth firmly entrenched as the lead, Washington should see more snaps and more route opportunities. The HC Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers combination should lean slightly more pass-heavy than recent Steelers offenses, and 12-personnel sets that feature both tight ends are likely to be a meaningful component of the playbook. He's a deep-league dart throw with legitimate athletic upside if the volume materializes.
| PIT | 224 |
| TE70 | Brock Bowers
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Bowers has the tools to be the best tight end in fantasy football. He finished TE2 in 2024 and TE4 on a per-game basis in 2025 despite missing five games. His 12.0 points per game over those 12 games were essentially identical to his rookie production. The underlying metrics are elite: 88th percentile PFF pass route grade among tight ends, 81st percentile in YPRR (1.70), and a 72nd percentile contested catch rate that reflects his physicality when the ball is in the air. His ESPN OVERALL score (89th percentile) is among the best in the sample. The limitation has always been team context. The Raiders are one of the worst offensive environments in the league, i.e. fewer touchdowns scored, and Bowers has had to absorb that drag on his production. He's going as the consensus TE1, likely due to the belief that Fernando Mendoza will turn the Raiders’ offense around.
| LV | 192 |
| TE71 | Brevyn Spann-Ford | DAL | 192 |
| TE72 | Jared Wiley | KC | 192 |
| TE73 | Ben Sinnott | WAS | 192 |
| TE74 | Cade Stover | HOU | 192 |
| TE75 | Erick All | CIN | 192 |
| TE76 | Julian Hill | NE | 192 |
| TE77 | AJ Barner
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Barner quietly put together one of the better Year 2 leaps at the position, jumping from 3.2 points per game as a rookie to a TE13 finish at 7.4 points per game in 2025. The six touchdowns drove most of the production, but he caught 52 of 64 targets for a solid 519 yards in 17 games. The PFF underlying metrics are middling rather than impressive (69th percentile route grade, 53rd percentile YPRR), but his ESPN OVERALL score (77th percentile) is genuinely good, and his contested catch rate (78th percentile) and avoided tackle rate (73rd percentile) suggest he's a solid receiver for an in-line tight end. The 3rd percentile slot rate confirms what the eye test says: Barner is a true Y-TE, lined up tight to the formation, doing damage near the line of scrimmage rather than streaking down the seams. That role profile gives him a touchdown-dependent fantasy ceiling, and the six TDs from last year may not be entirely repeatable, though he’s the biggest target that Sam Darnold has. He's going as a TE2 in deeper formats, and he's a fine late-round option for managers who want a player with weekly TE1 upside attached to red zone usage—just don't expect significant volume growth.
| SEA | 192 |
| TE78 | Tip Reiman | ARI | 192 |
| TE79 | Nate Adkins | DEN | 192 |
| TE80 | Theo Johnson
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Johnson averaged 3.7 receptions for 41 yards and 0.56 touchdowns in the nine games where Jaxson Dart attempted more than 13 passes. Those are low-end TE1 numbers, and Johnson remains one of the best athletes at the position. The problem is that the Giants signed Isaiah Likely after hiring John Harbaugh as their head coach, so despite coming off a mini-breakout/TE15 season, Johnson is likely to lose targets.
| NYG | 192 |
| TE81 | Ben Sims | MIA | 192 |
| TE82 | Ja'Tavion Sanders | CAR | 192 |
| TE83 | Gunnar Helm
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Helm's rookie year wasn't statistically impressive–4.4 points per game and a TE33 finish despite playing 16 games–but the underlying picture is a developmental piece who showed enough to warrant attention in Year 2. His PFF route grade (61st percentile) and YPRR (61st percentile) were respectable for a rookie, and his contested catch rate (70th percentile) suggests he can come down with the ball when challenged. The ESPN scores aren't where you'd hope—29th percentile in OPEN, 41st percentile in OVERALL. With Chigoziem Okonkwo gone, the TE1 role in Tennessee is Helm's to lose, and the opportunity matters enormously for a player who saw just 55 targets in his debut season. Cam Ward's own development is the variable that will determine whether Helm's expanded role translates into fantasy production.
| TEN | 160 |
| TE84 | Mason Taylor | NYJ | 160 |
| TE85 | Moliki Matavao | NO | 160 |
| TE86 | Jackson Hawes | BUF | 160 |
| TE87 | Blake Whiteheart | CLE | 160 |
| TE88 | Mitchell Evans | CAR | 160 |
| TE89 | Joe Royer | CLE | 96 |
| TE90 | Kenyon Sadiq
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Sadiq is a unicorn athlete at the tight end position. Per Player Profiler, he tested at the 100th percentile in the 40-yard dash, 100th percentile in Speed Score, 100th percentile in Burst Score, and 99th percentile in Catch Radius—a Vernon Davis-level athletic profile. Oregon deployed him accordingly, lining him up in the slot at a 90th-percentile rate (58.5%) among all tight ends in the PFF dataset. This isn’t a blocking tight end who happened to run fast at the combine; this is a movable chess piece who can stress defenses from every alignment. The Jets already spent a Day 2 pick on Mason Taylor last year, and Taylor led the team in receptions (44) as a rookie. The bigger issue is the quarterback situation. Geno Smith is a bridge, this offense ranked 29th in scoring last year, and target competition with Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall will cap volume early. For Sadiq, back-end TE2 with splash weeks driven by that absurd athletic profile.
| NYJ | 96 |
| TE91 | Ben Yurosek | MIN | 96 |
| TE92 | Jack Endries | CIN | 96 |
| TE93 | Sam Roush | CHI | 96 |
| TE94 | Eli Raridon | NE | 96 |
| TE95 | Oscar Delp | NO | 96 |
| TE96 | Nate Boerkircher | JAX | 96 |
| TE97 | Eli Stowers | PHI | 96 |
| TE98 | Seydou Traore | MIA | 96 |
| TE99 | Matthew Hibner | BAL | 96 |
| TE100 | Will Kacmarek | MIA | 96 |
| TE101 | Justin Joly | DEN | 96 |
| TE102 | Keleki Latu | BUF | 96 |
| TE103 | Riley Nowakowski | PIT | 96 |





