In 2024, Jackson was historically dominant—the overall QB1 at 25.5 points per game with 13 of 16 games over 20 points and zero games below 10. Then 2025 happened. Jackson missed five games, finished QB20 overall, and cratered in the second half of the season, averaging just 9.8 points per game after the midway point compared to 22.6 before it. The rushing, typically his fantasy floor, fell to 27.6 yards per start with just two rushing touchdowns—a fraction of his usual production. His efficiency slipped to the 60th percentile in EPA per dropback, still respectable but a far cry from the MVP-caliber play of the prior season. The offseason brings change. Isaiah Likely is gone, and while Mark Andrews is back, the Ravens are banking on rookie tight ends Ja'Kobi Lane and Elijah Sarratt to fill the void alongside him. New offensive coordinator Declan Doyle takes over play-calling duties. Zay Flowers remains a legitimate number-one receiver, but the overall supporting cast feels thinner than it was a year ago and he has missed 18% of his games in the last five seasons. Jackson is going as the QB2 with an overall ADP in the middle of the fifth round. The talent is undeniable—when healthy, Jackson has as high a ceiling as anyone in fantasy. But the second-half collapse, the reduced rushing, and a transitional roster make QB2 a price that carries more risk than it has in years.

Allen is the safest pick at the quarterback position, and it's not particularly close. He's finished QB1 and QB2 the last two seasons while playing all 34 games, and his consistency is remarkable—he's scored 20-plus fantasy points in 59% of games over that stretch with only four games below 10. His 2025 efficiency was elite: 93rd percentile in EPA per dropback and 87th percentile in CPOE, and the rushing remains the league's best fantasy cheat code at the position. Allen averaged 37.4 rushing yards per start with 14 rushing touchdowns last season. That's a RB2 season's worth of rushing touchdowns on top of 25 passing touchdowns, and it’s his third consecutive season with at least 12 rushing touchdowns. The Bills added D.J. Moore to a receiving corps that already includes Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid, giving Allen arguably his deepest set of pass-catchers since Stefon Diggs was in Buffalo. He's going as the QB1 off the board with an overall ADP around pick 30, and that's the right price. The only question is whether you want to spend that draft capital on a quarterback when you could wait and get a value QB significantly later. But if you want the highest floor and the highest ceiling at the position, Allen is the pick. If the draft gets weird and the available options in the third round aren’t too appealing, then Allen is an extremely safe pick.

Goff finished QB7 and QB11 the last two seasons, yet he's going as the QB16 off the board. That's a massive disconnect. He threw for 4,564 yards and 34 touchdowns last season with an 82nd percentile EPA per dropback and 71st percentile CPOE—both strong marks for a quarterback in one of the league's best offenses. New offensive coordinator Drew Petzing introduces some uncertainty, but Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and an elite offensive line are all still in place. The concern, as always, is that Goff offers nothing as a runner (3.1 rush yards per start), so he's entirely volume- and touchdown-dependent, and his well-documented home/road splits remain a factor. Over the last three seasons, he has averaged 20.8 fantasy points per game at home versus 15.6 on the road, but that predictability can be useful. The Jared Goff Gambit is once again viable: Draft Goff as your QB1, start him in home games and favorable road matchups, and stream/committee the position during his tougher away games. That approach can produce midrange QB1 numbers at a midrange QB2 price.

In each of the past two seasons, Mahomes has finished QB10 in total points, but he was the QB4 on a per-game basis last year after missing a couple of games. His CPOE (47th percentile) suggests the pinpoint accuracy isn't always there, but his EPA per dropback (84th percentile) and overall play-making ability keep him firmly in the QB1 conversation. The separator last year was his rushing. He has always been a threat to run–he has six straight seasons with 307+ yards as a runner–but as a 30-year-old, Mahomes set career-highs in rushing yards (422), and touchdowns (5). Rashee Rice is an alpha, and Xavier Worthy is fully healthy after a shaky 2025, health-wise. The Chiefs signed Kenneth Walker to replace Isiah Pacheco in the backfield. Mahomes is going off the board as a low-end QB1 and while his days of being a consensus top-three pick appear to be over, getting a quarterback with midrange QB1 upside outside the top 10 at the position is good value.

Darnold's fantasy career has been a wild ride. He finished QB8 in 2024 with Minnesota—one of the bigger surprises of the fantasy season—and promptly followed it with a QB14 overall finish in Seattle that translates to just QB25 on a per-game basis. The regression was steep: he averaged 17.2 points per game in the first half of 2025 before cratering to 11.2 after the midpoint, finishing with six games below 10 points. The interceptions were a real problem—14 on the season—which undercut what was otherwise genuinely accurate play (93rd percentile in CPOE) and solid efficiency (80th percentile in EPA per dropback). He also brings almost nothing on the ground, averaging 6.4 rushing yards per start with zero rushing touchdowns. The roster in Seattle has turned over at running back—Kenneth Walker is gone, replaced by rookie Jadarian Price—but the passing game has some upside. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a legitimate number-one, and Rashid Shaheed should make more of an impact in his second year in the offense. Cooper Kupp adds a reliable veteran presence. Whether this group is enough to keep Darnold out of double-digit-interception territory again is the real question. Darnold is going as a low-end QB2, and that's about right. He's a frustrating player to roster—flashes of genuine quality surrounded by stretches of turnover-prone football that will lose you weeks.

Lawrence has quietly put together a strong case as one of the most undervalued quarterbacks at his price point. After back-to-back injury-shortened seasons, he returned healthy in 2025 and finished QB4 overall at 19.7 points per game—and the second-half surge was striking, improving from 16.6 points per game before the midpoint to 22.7 after it. The rushing is underrated: Lawrence averaged 21.6 yards per start with nine rushing touchdowns last season, a number that rivals some of the best dual-threat weeks at the position. His accuracy still lags—29th percentile in CPOE—but the EPA per dropback (69th percentile) and the touchdown production suggest he makes enough plays where it counts. The Jaguars lost Travis Etienne but added Chris Rodriguez to help carry the backfield load, and it's Year 2 with Liam Coen, who is making the case that he’s one of the best offensive minds in the league. The receiving corps features Brian Thomas Jr. as a possible WR1, Jakobi Meyers as a reliable slot option, the efficient Parker Washington, and Travis Hunter, who has the talent to produce, provided he gets enough run on offense. Lawrence is going as a midrange QB1, and given his QB4 finish last year and the rushing floor he provides, that price looks fair. If the second-year Coen offense unlocks another level, there's top-five upside here once again.

2026 Geno Smith could be one of fantasy's most reliable archetypes: the quarterback on a bad team who throws a lot because his team trails constantly. He's going back to New York with a cast that includes Garrett Wilson, Adonai Mitchell, and rookie additions Omar Cooper Jr. and Kenyon Sadiq–a receiver room that should generate weekly production when the targets are there. The Jets have 99 vacated WR targets (37.2% of WR volume), the defense figures to struggle, and the offense will spend large portions of games in catch-up mode. That's the “garbage-time hero” profile in its purest form. The concern is 2025, which was a disaster in Las Vegas–QB23 overall, QB36 per game, 11.6 points per game, eight games under 10 points, and 17 interceptions. The 13th-percentile EPA per dropback is alarming for a player being considered as a potential streaming option. His 2024 in Seattle (QB15, 15.0 PPG) is the counterpoint—he can still function in the right environment. The Jets are not Seattle, but they may be a better situation than Las Vegas was last season.

The reunion with Mike McCarthy and the Pittsburgh supporting cast gives Rodgers his most familiar situation since Green Bay, but the efficiency metrics from his first two years back haven't justified much more than a streaming quarterback. He's finished QB16 and QB18 overall in back-to-back seasons at 14.5 and 13.9 points per game–QB23 and QB27 on a per-game basis–and his advanced metrics reflect exactly what those numbers suggest: 44th percentile in both EPA per dropback and CPOE, dead average efficiency from a player who was once elite. Pittsburgh has 102 vacated WR targets (44.3% of WR volume), and pairing DK Metcalf with Michael Pittman and rookie Germie Bernard gives Rodgers a decent set of options to throw to. McCarthy's system historically generates passing volume, and if the Steelers' offense leans into Rodgers' arm more than the previous regime, there's a path to high-end QB2 production, though I’m not holding my breath.

Love's 2025 season was a tale of two stories. On the surface, he finished QB13 with a QB21 per-game average—solid, but not great. But Love left three games early due to injury (Weeks 11, 12, and 16), and when those are removed, his per-game average jumps to 17.2 points, or about QB14 on a per-game basis. More importantly, his efficiency metrics were outstanding: 98th percentile in EPA per dropback and 96th percentile in CPOE, both top marks in the league. The talent and the efficiency are clearly there—the question is whether the Packers will let Love cook, since it’s his passing volume that’s holding him back, not his arm. A healthy Christian Watson and Jayden Reed, the emerging Matthew Golden and Savion Williams, and an elite Tucker Kraft returning from an ACL tear give Love plenty of weapons. If Green Bay increases the pass rate even slightly and Love stays healthy, the gap between his efficiency and his fantasy output should close in a hurry.

Hurts has been one of the most bankable fantasy quarterbacks in football, finishing QB6 and QB7 the last two seasons while playing nearly every game. His per-game average dipped from 21.0 to 18.7 points last year, but the rushing production continued to anchor his floor—27.2 yards per start with eight rushing touchdowns, giving him RB-caliber value on the ground alone. His accuracy was strong (82nd percentile in CPOE) and the efficiency was solid (67th percentile in EPA per dropback), though the second half of last season was uneven, as he averaged 21.7 points in the first eight games and 15.7 the rest of the way. The big question heading into 2026 is the receiving corps. If A.J. Brown is traded as expected, Hurts loses his most dangerous downfield weapon. However, the Eagles moved up in the first round to nab Makai Lemon and added Dontayvion Wicks and Hollywood Brown. DeVonta Smith is more than capable of stepping into the WR1 role and Dallas Goedert provides a reliable safety valve. Saquon Barkley's presence in the backfield also takes pressure off the passing game entirely. Despite the imminent loss of Brown, Hurts once again looks like a rock-solid QB1.

Ward's rookie season was a struggle by the numbers. He finished QB22 overall but QB40 on a per-game basis at 11.1 points per game, and his EPA per dropback (9th percentile) and CPOE (18th percentile) were among the lowest marks in the league. The saving grace is the trajectory. Ward averaged just 8.3 points per game in the first half of the season and improved to 13.8 in the second half as he got more comfortable with the speed of the NFL game—closing with four straight games of 11 or more points and 15-plus in three of his final four starts. That's not a disaster for a rookie learning on the job with a very thin receiver corps. The weapons around him are meaningfully better heading into Year 2. Carnell Tate was a high-upside draft pick who should slot in as the immediate WR1, Wan'Dale Robinson adds a reliable and experienced slot presence in free agency, and while Calvin Ridley is no longer the force he once was, he provides veteran depth. Gunnar Helm is an interesting breakout candidate at tight end with Chigoziem Okonkwo gone, and Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears form a capable backfield. Ward is going as a low-end QB2/high-end QB3, which is the right price for a young quarterback who's still developing and hasn't shown he can sustain production over a full season. He's a dart throw at the back of drafts with legitimate upside if the second-half arrow keeps pointing up.

Brissett was one of the better stories in fantasy football last season once he found his footing. From Week 6 through the end of the year, he averaged 18.9 points per game over 12 starts, which would have ranked among the top eight quarterbacks in fantasy over that stretch. The accuracy was solid at 67th percentile in CPOE, and while the EPA per dropback (36th percentile) suggests room for improvement in overall efficiency, the results spoke for themselves. He's working with a genuinely good supporting cast. Trey McBride is one of the best weapons at tight end in the entire league, Michael Wilson broke out last season and gives him a legitimate No. 2 option, Jeremiyah Love is a dynamic young running back who will keep defenses honest, and Marvin Harrison Jr. remains a player with unrealized upside who could finally put it together. Kendrick Bourne adds a reliable depth option. Brissett is going as a low-end QB2 to not drafted, and the late-season version of him is significantly better than that price. He won't win you a league, but if the Cardinals continue developing their weapons around him, he's a legitimate streaming option with some weeks where he can post QB1 numbers, and is a sneaky third option in two-quarterback formats.

Young has made incremental progress in each of his three NFL seasons, improving his completion percentage and touchdown rate annually, and that kind of quiet development is worth tracking even when the overall fantasy numbers haven't broken through yet. He finished QB19 overall in 2025 but QB29 on a per-game basis at 13.4 points per game, which reflects a brutal inconsistency problem—he posted three games over 20 points, including a 31.8-point explosion in Week 11, but also five games below 10. His efficiency metrics still sit in the middle of the pack (38th percentile EPA, 56th percentile CPOE), and the rushing production (14.6 yards per start, two touchdowns) provides a low floor. The big development heading into Year 4 is Tetairoa McMillan’s continued development. Jalen Coker provides depth. Young is going as a low-end QB2, and that's where he belongs until he shows he can sustain the big weeks rather than alternating them with clunkers.

Williams took a meaningful step forward in Year 2, improving from a solid QB14 rookie finish to the overall QB6 at 18.8 points per game, a 3.6-point-per-game increase. He showed the ability to spike with a 37.7-point explosion, and demonstrated that Ben Johnson's system fits his skillset. The rushing contribution (23.2 yards per start, three touchdowns) gives him a nice floor that his rookie season didn't always provide. The advanced stat concerns are real, though. His CPOE sat at the 16th percentile. He can make plays, but he remains an inconsistent thrower, and losing D.J. Moore, his veteran security blanket, matters. Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland, and second-year Luther Burden III all have upside, however. Year 2 in Johnson's system should help, and the ceiling is firmly top-five if the accuracy improves and the receiver group gels. He's going as a midrange QB1, which means you're paying for the upside while accepting the inconsistency. If the CPOE improves to match his EPA (62nd percentile), he's a borderline value. If it doesn't, he may be hard-pressed to match his ADP.

Mendoza is the clear QB1 in this class after leading Indiana to a national title and a Heisman. Advanced stats-wise, his college profile is rare: a 98th-percentile PFF Pass Grade (90.7), 94th-percentile Adjusted Completion % (79.0), and 98th-percentile yards per attempt (9.3). He wasn't manufacturing that efficiency underneath either—his aDOT sat at 9.8 yards. Forty-one touchdowns against six picks across 16 games. My Rookie QB model predicts around 17 yards rushing per game, which is not nothing, and the landing spot has pieces. Brock Bowers is a top-three fantasy tight end, Ashton Jeanty should take a leap in Year 2 under Klint Kubiak's run-heavy scheme, and the Tyler Linderbaum signing shores up the interior line. The receiver room is the problem—Tre Tucker, Jack Bech, and Dont’e Thornton are underwhelming, and Kubiak's play-action-heavy system could cap passing volume. Kirk Cousins adds a short-term murky timeline, though most first-overall QBs are starting within weeks. QB3 in redraft with a ceiling tied to the weapons around him; priority dynasty target at a discounted price.

Taylor finished as the RB2 in half-PPR formats in 2025, trailing only Christian McCaffrey. After an injury-shortened 2024 that dropped him to RB14 in 13 games, he returned with a full workload and validated his standing as a top-tier bell cow. The efficiency leans heavily on what he does after contact–his YAC/Att ranked at the 88th percentile among qualified backs. His 82nd-percentile PFF run grade confirms he's operating at an above-average level as a runner even when the blocking isn't generating much pre-contact space (57th-percentile YBC/Att). The receiving role is solid but not spectacular–54 targets, 46 catches, 378 yards–enough to support his half-PPR ceiling without driving it. A locked-in workhorse with elite after-contact traits. Draft him as a high-floor RB1.

Jones dropped from RB15 in 2024 to RB43 in 2025, missing five games with injury and posting efficiency numbers that suggest the decline is real and not just about availability. He ranked dead last among qualified backs in elusive rating–65th out of 65 qualified backs–and his run grade came in at the 18th percentile, his broken-tackle rate at the 20th. At 31 years old, those aren't numbers that are likely to bounce back. The receiving role was present in volume but the route grade ranked at the 10th percentile. Given his struggles running the ball, there's not much here for fantasy purposes unless injuries open the door, and even then the underlying metrics aren’t encouraging.

McCaffrey finished as the RB1 in half-PPR formats in 2025, but the caveat is significant–he appeared in just four games in 2024. When healthy, his production is driven almost entirely by the passing game. He led all running backs in targets (121) and route grade (99th percentile among qualified RBs), while ranking 3rd in YPRR (96th percentile)–a profile that sets him apart from traditional workhorses. The rushing efficiency tells a different story: his run grade (14th percentile) and YAC/Att (9th percentile) are well below average, suggesting he's no longer the same threat between the tackles. However, given his receiving, the upside is the weekly RB1 ceiling when healthy.

Barkley went from the overall RB1 in 2024 to RB13 in 2025, and the efficiency numbers suggest the regression may be real. His run grade fell to the 60th percentile, his elusive rating to the 48th, and his YAC/Att to the 14th. Not great. The receiving role was voluminous (86th-percentile target share) but not efficient; his route grade ranked at the 14th percentile and his YPRR (0.84) was below average. Philadelphia added tackle Markel Bell in the third round, but he’s known more as a pass-blocker than a mauler in the run game. Barkley is 29, entrenched as the starter, and volume and touchdown opportunities should be fine. Which was the outlier–2024 or 2025? The data leans toward the former.

Jacobs dropped from RB5 in 2024 to RB12 in 2025, though he was the RB9 on a per-game basis and his 2025 season still had its moments–13 rushing touchdowns kept him relevant even as his per-game average dipped from 16.5 to 14.6 points per game. The efficiency picture is uneven. His PFF run grade ranked at the 77th percentile and his broken-tackle rate at the 62nd, but his YBC/Att came in at the 26th percentile, reflecting an offensive line that wasn't generating much room before contact. His success rate (40th percentile) confirms the ground game was a bit of a grind. The receiving profile is the most underrated part of his game–his route grade ranked at the 95th percentile, and his YPRR at the 75th, making him a quality pass-catcher despite the modest target volume. The blocking environment seems to be trending the wrong way. The Packers ranked 31st in net OL spending this offseason, lost two net linemen (Elgton Jenkins and Rasheed Walker), and made no offensive line investments in the first three rounds of the draft, though they did draft a center (Jager Burton) in the fifth round. The run blocking was already a liability in 2025, and there's no obvious reason to expect improvement this season. The more pressing issue is off the field. Jacobs was arrested on May 23rd following a domestic disturbance complaint and booked on five charges: battery, criminal damage to property, disorderly conduct, strangulation and suffocation, and intimidation of a victim. His attorneys state he is denying the charges. The Brown County District Attorney's Office subsequently indicated it is not yet prepared to formally charge him, noting that while probable cause supported the arrest, the evidence did not meet the DA's higher standard for prosecution. The case remains open and charges could still be filed. An NFL suspension is possible this season or next, and the range of outcomes–no suspension, a multi-game suspension, or something longer–is wide enough to make him impossible to draft with confidence. Until there is more clarity on the legal and disciplinary front, he's a player to monitor rather than actively target.

When Dobbins is healthy and playing, he’s a serious fantasy asset. He ranked RB18 through the first 10 weeks of 2025 on 16.4 touches per game at 5.0 yards per carry, and the advanced metrics are consistent with that output–89th-percentile YAC/Att, 71st-percentile run grade, 65th-percentile success rate. He's a quality runner who generates after contact and converts on a high percentage of his carries. The foot sprain that ended his season after Week 10 was just the latest entry in a four-year injury history that has resulted in 32 total games played. Yikes. The receiving role belongs to Harvey, who ran routes far more efficiently in 2025, so Dobbins' value is almost entirely carry-dependent. Midrange RB2 numbers are well within reach on a full season, but a full season is the one thing Dobbins hasn't managed to string together. He's a talented back who has to be drafted as an injury risk and shouldn’t be counted upon to be available in December.

Henderson's 2025 splits tell two very different stories. In Rhamondre Stevenson's 13 healthy games, he averaged 10.5 touches, 56 yards, and 0.38 touchdowns–low-end RB3 production. In the games where Stevenson was out or limited, Henderson averaged 19.6 touches, 103 yards, and 1.25 touchdowns, which is strong RB1 territory. He’s being drafted as a low-end RB2, and that perceived value hinges on Stevenson’s fragility or the potential of Henderson usurping Stevenson’s role. Henderson’s 94th-percentile YBC/Att suggests he's quick to find the ample running lanes opened by New England’s excellent offensive line, and his overall profile–55th-percentile run grade, 65th-percentile elusive rating, 58th-percentile success rate–is consistently above average without a standout metric. New England again invested in the offensive line this offseason and added first-round tackle Caleb Lomu, so the line should continue to be a strength. Given Stevenson's injury history–he's missed 10 games in the last three seasons–Henderson carries real upside. The downside is that Henderson could continue to see 10 touches per game as part of a committee.

Hampton's rookie season was cut short at nine games, leaving a limited but promising sample. He finished RB32 overall at 13.3 points per game (RB16 per-game production), and the efficiency profile holds up well under the circumstances–his run grade ranked at the 86th percentile and his broken-tackle rate at the 94th, fourth-highest among qualified backs. His YAC/Att (22nd percentile) is the one concern, though 124 rookie carries is a small sample. The receiving role was functional without being a focal point, and his 71st-percentile route grade suggests the foundation is there. The bigger news for 2026 is Joe Alt's return. Alt missed virtually all of last season with injury, and getting an elite tackle back into the lineup should meaningfully improve Hampton's blocking environment. Keaton Mitchell adds depth but isn't a threat to the workload. Hampton enters the season as the clear starter with an offense and line that should be better than what he had last year.

Stevenson has finished RB25 and RB31 in back-to-back seasons, which understates what the advanced stats show. His broken-tackle rate ranks at the 97th percentile–2nd in the NFL–his YAC/Att at the 95th, and his elusive rating at the 91st. His receiving profile is legitimately above average too, with a 78th-percentile YPRR. In his 13 healthy games, he averaged 11.9 touches for 72 yards and 0.69 touchdowns per game, serving as the RB1a while TreVeyon Henderson was the RB1b (10.5 touches per game in the same span). Given his efficiency profile and last year’s split, there’s an argument that Stevenson should be drafted first, yet he’s going off the board two full rounds after Henderson.

Gainwell's RB21 finish in 2025 at Pittsburgh was a surprise, but the receiving volume that drove it was real–81 targets, 73 catches, 486 yards, and three scores, with a 92nd-percentile target share, 86th-percentile YPRR, and 81st-percentile route grade. He's primarily a pass-catching back, and that profile fits the Rachaad White role he's stepping into in Tampa. The rushing efficiency has some interesting markers too: his broken-tackle rate ranked at the 95th percentile (3rd in the NFL) on 114 carries, though his run grade (51st percentile) and elusive rating (54th percentile) were average. At 4.7 YPC, he’s not just a pass-catcher. However, the situation at Tampa is complicated. Irving is the likely lead back when healthy but he’s recovering from shoulder surgery. Sean Tucker handles goal-line work. Gainwell fits as the committee's passing-down piece, but in a three-way split where none of the backs has a clean role, consistent production is hard to project. Tampa has 132 vacated carries entering 2026, so there's volume available–it's just spread across enough bodies to limit any one back's ceiling, and Gainwell is unlikely to see 80+ targets again.

In 2024 Warren finished RB40 in 14 games, largely buried behind Najee Harris in a rotation that didn't suit him. In 2025, with a clearer path, he jumped to RB18 and put together one of the better under-the-radar efficiency profiles at the position–94th-percentile elusive rating (4th in the NFL), 91st-percentile broken-tackle rate, and 82nd-percentile YAC/Att. The receiving game is equally strong: his route grade (91st percentile) and YPRR (90th percentile) rank among the best at the position. He's a legitimate three-down back when given the opportunity, but that’s in question yet again. Rico Dowdle's arrival and reunion with Mike McCarthy, who coached him in Dallas in 2024, introduces a familiarity dynamic that could push Warren back into a secondary role. Pittsburgh's 114 vacated carries create room for both backs, but how McCarthy distributes them will determine Warren's value. If Dowdle takes the early-down work and Warren holds the passing-down role, the floor is still serviceable in PPR formats. If Warren sees lead back touches, his advanced stats point to a potential RB1 season.

Judkins' rookie season looks worse on the surface than it actually was. His YBC/Att ranked at the 3rd percentile–the line gave him almost no room before contact–and yet he still posted a 72nd-percentile YAC/Att, generating something on runs that were otherwise dead on arrival. Cleveland's offensive line was one of the worst in the league, and the run grade (11th percentile) reflects that as much as anything that Judkins did with the ball. The offseason changes are substantial. Cleveland ranked second in net OL spending, adding Elgton Jenkins and Zion Johnson in free agency and drafting Spencer Fano (92nd/96th-percentile grades) in the first round and Austin Barber (top-rated run blocker in the college sample) in the third. If the line improves even modestly toward league average, the pre-contact numbers should look very different and Judkins’ production could seriously spike. He’s one of the more straightforward year-two breakout cases at the position, and he’s being drafted as a low-end RB2, right where he finished last year.

Hall has finished RB18 and RB17 in back-to-back seasons, making him one of the more consistent mid-range RB2-types in the league despite playing for a Jets offense that hasn't made things easy. His 83rd-percentile run grade is the strongest individual rushing metric, though his elusive rating (28th percentile) and broken-tackle rate (35th percentile) are below average, so he's not generating much when the holes aren’t there. Four rushing touchdowns in 2025 kept a ceiling on his overall production, and more red-zone opportunity could push him meaningfully up the rankings. The receiving game is a genuine asset–his route grade and YPRR both rank at the 82nd-83rd percentile range, giving him a reliable PPR floor, especially since the Jets figure to trail most of the season. Geno Smith theoretically offers an upgrade at quarterback.

Walker produced a 97th-percentile run grade in 2025, second-best among qualified backs, so the talent is real. The problem in Seattle was opportunity–221 carries, five touchdowns, while sharing the backfield with Zach Charbonnet. Kansas City represents a significant change in scenery: the Chiefs enter 2026 with 288 vacated RB carries, the most of any team in the NFL, clearing the runway for a genuine workhorse role. The concern is the blocking environment. KC's run-block win rate fell from 7th to 25th last season, and the team was a net loser in offensive line spending this offseason with no early-round picks. Creed Humphrey remains an elite center, but run blocking was a weakness last year and it really didn't get addressed. Walker's elite elusiveness (89th-percentile elusive rating, 88th-percentile broken-tackle rate) gives him a chance to generate on his own, which is probably why the Chiefs went after him. A high-upside RB2 some environment risk.

Rodriguez arrives in Jacksonville carrying some of the stronger efficiency numbers at the position. His YAC/Att ranked at the 97th percentile–second in the NFL–and his success rate (94th percentile) and broken-tackle rate (92nd percentile) round out an impressive profile. The caveat, as with several backs running behind poor offensive lines, is that his YBC/Att ranked at the 5th percentile in Washington, meaning very little of his production came before first contact. Jacksonville didn’t invest heavily in the offensive line this offseason, though the addition of guard Emmanuel Pregnon (99th-percentile run blocker) in the third round should create more holes. The Liam Coen connection is worth noting as context–Rodriguez ran for 1,379 yards and nine touchdowns under Coen at Kentucky in 2021. He had no meaningful receiving work in 2025, which limits his PPR upside in what figures to be a committee with Tuten. He's a legitimate late-round target with a higher floor than his RB37 draft position implies if the Jacksonville run game improves.

White fell from RB20 in 2024 to RB34 in 2025 as Bucky Irving's emergence in Tampa cut into his workload, but the efficiency profile he produced on limited carries was genuinely interesting. His run grade ranked at the 92nd percentile–5th in the NFL–and his YBC/Att at the 83rd. The catch is his YAC/Att ranked at the 8th percentile, meaning once contact arrives he doesn't do much with it. The receiving role was present in volume (75th-percentile target share) but below-average in efficiency (21st-percentile YPRR). He's joining Washington as the replacement for Chris Rodriguez. The Commanders also added Jerome Ford, Jeremy McNichols is still around, and they added Kaytron Allen in the draft.

Skattebo's rookie season was cut short by a dislocated ankle in Week 8, which is the only reason a back who averaged 19.5 touches, 97 rushing yards, and a touchdown per game from Weeks 2 through 7 isn't a consensus RB1 conversation. He's targeting a return during camp with the expectation of being ready for Week 1, and the Giants appear to share that confidence–they didn't add a running back in free agency or the draft, leaving Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary as the backups behind him. The efficiency data comes with a sample size caveat at 101 carries, but nothing in it raises flags, and it’s actually encouraging. His run grade (72nd percentile) and elusive rating (72nd percentile) are above average, and his broken-tackle rate sits at the 65th percentile. The more impressive numbers are in the receiving game, where his YPRR ranked at the 88th percentile and his route grade at the 90th. He's a legitimate three-down back, not just a runner. New York also used the 10th overall pick on guard Francis Mauigoa, a meaningful OL investment that should help Skattebo’s pre-contact numbers, which were below average in 2025 (35th-percentile YBC/Att).

Wilson has spent two seasons as Josh Jacobs' backup in Green Bay, finishing RB50 both years with minimal volume. The question of how good he actually is has a complicated answer. His 95th-percentile success rate is the most striking number in his profile–third-best among qualified backs behind a Green Bay offensive that struggled to open holes. Most of the rest of his rushing profile is average to below average: 48th-percentile run grade, 40th-percentile elusive rating, 14th-percentile YBC/Att, underscoring the Packers’ run-blocking struggles. His YAC/Att ranks at the 75th percentile, which is legit. He’s not much of a receiver, though he did have a couple of three-catch games last season. The situation in Seattle is what makes him intriguing. After losing Kenneth Walker III, the Seahawks enter 2026 with 226 vacated carries, 52.9% of their total–the largest vacancy in the league. Zach Charbonnet tore his ACL in February and is likely out for at least the first half of the season, leaving Wilson as a potential starter by default. Jadarian Price was drafted in the first round and could be a factor quickly, but as a rookie it’s not certain he’ll be ready to start Week 1. George Holani is also in the mix, but he has a 3.3 career YPC on just 25 carries. In eight games where Wilson saw 10+ carries in Green Bay, he averaged 74 total yards and 0.76 touchdowns on 16.3 touches per game, or solid RB2 numbers. Wilson is a functional running back in a role that most functional running backs would thrive in. The success rate, YAC/att, and the feature back splits are encouraging. If Price falters, Wilson could be a surprise fantasy starter.

Corum's 2025 splits tell the familiar backup story: mostly irrelevant through 12 weeks, then double-digit fantasy points in four of five games when Kyren Williams was limited down the stretch. When the Rams' scheme gives him carries, the efficiency numbers look remarkable–his success rate (97th percentile) and YBC/Att (97th percentile) both rank second in the NFL, and his run grade sits at the 89th percentile. The catch, as with Williams, is that the scheme is doing most of the work. Corum's elusive rating (15th percentile) and YAC/Att (17th percentile) are well below average, and his receiving profile is essentially nonexistent–he ranked dead last among qualified backs in both YPRR and route grade.

Croskey-Merritt quietly put together a nice first year as a featured back, with his run grade (57th percentile), elusive rating (68th percentile), success rate (66th percentile), and broken-tackle rate (68th percentile) all clustering in the same above-average range without a standout in any direction. So he's a consistent but unspectacular runner. The receiving game is essentially nonexistent–11 targets all season, 1st-percentile volume, 8th-percentile route grade–so his value is entirely rush-dependent. Washington enters 2026 with 126 vacated carries (37.6% of team carries), the bulk of which belonged to Chris Rodriguez, giving JCM a real opportunity to take on a bigger workload. The concern is the offensive line: Washington ranked 27th in net OL spending this offseason and made no early draft investments at the position. The Commanders signed Rachaad White and Jerome Ford, Jeremy McNichols is still around, and they added Kaytron Allen in the draft. This could turn ugly quickly if JCM doesn’t have a good summer.

What Brooks showed at Texas in 2023 was genuinely impressive–1,425 total yards and 11 touchdowns in 11 games as a sophomore, with a 9th-ranked run grade and the 11th-most missed tackles forced in the college sample, plus a solid receiving profile. The talent was never the question. Two ACL tears in the same knee in consecutive seasons is the issue, and it's a significant one even with a full medical clearance and the Brooks reporting he's close to 100 percent. That phrase covers a wide range of realities going into his first real NFL season. Carolina's 236 vacated carries create a real opportunity alongside Chuba Hubbard, and Monroe Freeling's addition at tackle should help whoever leads the backfield. Brooks figures to ease into a complementary role while the coaching staff evaluates how his knee holds up under NFL contact. The ceiling is real if the knee is right.

Price comes in as a first-round pick with the requisite size at 5'11", 203 lbs, but the scouting file is pretty thin. Playing behind Jeremiyah Love at Notre Dame, he logged just 113 carries, making this more of a traits projection than a proven production profile. His efficiency was encouraging–a 90th-percentile elusive rating (118.6), an 84th-percentile YAC/Att (3.92), and 6.0 yards per carry. Eleven touchdowns on 119 total touches is a strong scoring rate for any back, let alone one working in a complementary role. The receiving game is the central question. He had virtually no receiving work at Notre Dame, though he did catch 55 passes across his final two high school seasons, which at least suggests the hands are there. Whether an NFL coaching staff trusts him on third downs early in his career is a different matter. The situation could put him on the field immediately. With Kenneth Walker III in Kansas City, Zach Charbonnet rehabbing a torn ACL, and Emanuel Wilson best suited as a complement, Price’s draft capital says that he should be the RB1 in Seattle from Week 1. The ceiling in PPR formats depends heavily on how the passing-down role develops–if it doesn't, Wilson or an eventual Charbonnet return could absorb the snaps that matter most for fantasy. He's an RB2/RB3 in redraft with a wide range of outcomes.

Pierce's breakout in 2025 deserves more attention than it got–1,003 yards in 14 games, WR34. The profile is unusual. His ESPN OPEN score is the 4th percentile, meaning almost no one in the 110-receiver sample got open less consistently, yet his PFF route grade (87th percentile) and YPRR (88th percentile) are both very good. The explanation is the extreme vertical route tree: Pierce's 20.0 average depth of target was among the highest in the league. He runs go routes and deep posts, creates the separation on his terms, and his 84th-percentile drop rate says he catches what comes his way. He doesn't manufacture yards after the catch (57th percentile) or thrive in contested situations (41st percentile). The Colts have 108 vacated WR targets entering 2026 with Michael Pittman gone, giving Pierce a path to legit WR1 usage as the team's deep threat. Daniel Jones recovering from his Achilles tear is the schematic question–how much can a returning Jones push the ball downfield to support a 20.0 aDOT receiver. At WR34 ADP, managers are betting that Pierce can repeat his 2025 breakout.

Watson's efficiency numbers when healthy are among the most impressive at the position. In 10 games last season after returning from injury, he caught 35 of 55 targets for 611 yards and six touchdowns, with a PFF route grade (96th percentile) and YPRR (2.51, 96th percentile) that both ranked at the very top of the wide receiver sample. Over 10 games last year, his production extrapolated to a 1,039-yard, 10.2-touchdown pace for a full season. In his 23 career games where he's played at least 70 percent of the snaps, he has averaged 3.6 catches, 63 yards, and 0.70 touchdowns on 6.1 targets per game, or 12.2 fantasy points, solidly WR1-adjacent. The snap share is the key. Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks are both gone, and Watson should command 75 to 80 percent of the snaps as the clear WR1 in Green Bay entering 2026. Jordan Love's 100th-percentile CPOE means the ball will be placed accurately when Watson works downfield, and the Packers' receiving corps–Jayden Reed, Matthew Golden, Savion Williams, and Tucker Kraft returning from his ACL–gives Love enough weapons to keep defenses from doubling Watson. He's going as the WR29 and that's a significant discount for a player with top-15 upside if the snap share materializes as expected.

Metcalf has delivered almost exactly the same season back-to-back–WR22 overall in both 2024 and 2025, averaging 10.4 and 10.5 points per game respectively. His profile splits into two distinct tiers: an average-to-solid route runner (74th-percentile route grade, 76th-percentile YPRR, 57th-percentile ESPN OPEN) and an elite playmaker with the ball in his hands (96th-percentile YAC per reception, 81st-percentile ESPN YAC). Pittsburgh has 102 vacated WR targets (44.3% of WR volume), and with Aaron Rodgers returning with Michael Pittman and Germie Bernard competing for looks, the distribution matters. If Metcalf maintains his role, another WR2 finish is in range. He's going as a low-end WR3/high-end WR4, and for a player who has delivered WR22 production in two consecutive seasons, that's a late-round discount worth taking.

Collins presents one of the most counterintuitive statistical profiles at the position. His ESPN OPEN score is 9th percentile yet his PFF route grade is 94th percentile and his YPRR is 93rd percentile. He's a 6'4" boundary receiver who wins through size, physicality, and positioning rather than through obvious separation, and his 80th-percentile contested catch rate confirms that conclusion. Defenders don't leave him open; he catches the ball anyway, and hi 86th-percentile drop rate shows he makes the most of it when the ball arrives. He's put up 14.9 and 12.7 points per game over the last two seasons and finished WR7 and WR10 per game, respectively. At the WR11, he's priced fairly for a player who has delivered back-to-back top-ten per-game seasons.

Evans' 2025 season was limited to seven games by injury, but when healthy he's still viable–he averaged 9.3 points per game in those games, and his 2024 campaign of WR8 per game (14.6 ppg) over 13 games showed he can still produce when healthy. The concern is the underlying metrics in 2025: a 27th-percentile ESPN OPEN score and 13th-percentile OVERALL, and a 1st-percentile YAC per reception. He's 33 years old and his game has narrowed–he's a boundary receiver who wins on size and positioning rather than separation, and he creates almost nothing after the catch. The argument for him is the San Francisco situation. The 49ers have 157 vacated targets heading into 2026, including 145 from the WR position, so 59% of their WR targets from last season are up for grabs. Brock Purdy's elite efficiency means those opportunities should convert at a high rate. Given his age, Evans as a low-end WR2 seems pricey, but it’s a health bet and a situation bet more than a talent bet, but the upside is real if he plays 13-plus games in an offense with that many quality targets available.

Assuming A.J. Brown is traded away, Smith enters 2026 with the clearest path to big-time WR1 usage of his career. He's spent four years as one of the best route-runners in football while sharing the target tree with Brown, and the underlying metrics have consistently told the same story: 80th-percentile PFF route grade and 82nd-percentile YPRR last season. Smith finished WR23 overall but just WR33 per game at 9.8 points per game–eight games under seven points in 17 appearances. The four-touchdown season killed what was otherwise a 1,008-yard campaign. But the data without Brown is instructive: in the four games across the last two seasons where Brown didn't play, Smith's targets jumped from 6.5 to 8.3, his receptions from 4.7 to 5.8, and his yardage from 60 to 73. His touchdowns actually decreased from 0.42 to 0.25 per game when Brown missed. If we assume a 5.8-reception, 73-yard, 0.42-touchdown pace, Smith would average 12.7 fantasy points per game–the exact number Nico Collins put up as last year's WR8. Makai Lemon arrives presumably as Brown's eventual long-term replacement, but Smith should have at least this season as the unambiguous WR1 in Philadelphia. He's going as the WR13 at Underdog, a midrange third-round price for a player who profiles as a high-floor WR2 in the worst case and a top-eight receiver if things break his way.

Chase was the overall WR1 in 2024 at nearly 20 points per game. In 2025, with Burrow missing significant time, he finished WR5 overall and WR4 per game, which is still elite. The underlying metrics remain at the top of the position: 98th-percentile route grade, 91st-percentile YPRR, and a 94th-percentile ESPN YAC score that reflects his elite run-after-catch ability, which shows up in his 84th-percentile PFF YAC per reception as well. He's going as the WR1 overall, and the entire bet is Joe Burrow's health–Chase with a functional Burrow is the best receiver in fantasy football.

Moore has spent two seasons as the bridge option in a developing Bears offense—WR21 in 2024, WR30 in 2025—putting up passable but uninspiring numbers with Caleb Williams developing around him. The PFF metrics reflect a mid-tier receiver: 44th-percentile route grade, 41st percentile-YPRR. The standout is his 84th-percentile contested catch rate, which makes more sense in Buffalo than it did in Chicago. The Bills vacated 56 targets from last season, so Moore will have to carve out whatever role he can with Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, and Joshua Palmer all returning. The opportunity isn't overwhelming, but the quarterback upgrade from Williams to Allen is significant enough on its own to make Moore an intriguing real-world WR1 available in the middle rounds. If Allen pushes the ball to him early and often in the way he did with Stefon Diggs, Moore's contested catch ability could produce a top-20 finish.

Burden’s PFF YPRR was 98th percentile (2.69) and his YAC per reception was 97th percentile (7.3)–elite numbers that put him among the best receivers in the league on a per-route basis. He did it from the slot (73rd percentile slot rate) running short routes (7.5 average depth of target), which is why his 69th-percentile ESPN OPEN score and 77th-percentile YAC score are especially impressive for a rookie. On the flip side, a 2nd-percentile contested catch rate implies he can't win in traffic at all, and a 25th-percentile drop rate is a concern. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception says Burden is “extremely talented” and that “the good heavily outweighs any critiques.” The opportunity for Year 2 is definitely there. Chicago has 149 vacated WR targets (48.1% of WR volume) with D.J. Moore gone, and Burden should definitely see a bump in snaps and targets. Early ADP has Burden going a full round ahead of his teammate, Rome Odunze.

London's profile creates a genuine tension between the eye test and the numbers. His ESPN OPEN score (31st percentile) and OVERALL (33rd percentile) suggest he rarely beats coverage cleanly–and yet his PFF route grade is 97th percentile and his YPRR is 92nd percentile, both among the best in the league. In 11 games last season he averaged 13.8 points per game–WR7 on a per-game basis–with 68 receptions for 919 yards and seven touchdowns. His 27th-percentile avoided tackle rate tells you he's not elite at extending plays after the catch, which further concentrates his value in volume and red zone usage. He's going as the WR8 in an offense that also features Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts, and the upside is a top-5 finish.

Adams turned in one of the more improbable statistical seasons of 2025—14 touchdowns in 14 games at 33 years old, finishing WR7 overall at 13.8 points per game. His 91st-percentile PFF route grade and 89th-percentile ESPN OPEN score confirm the separation ability is still there, and Matthew Stafford's elite efficiency continues to find him in the right spots. The sustainability questions are significant. A touchdown-per-game pace is almost certainly not repeatable–four fewer TDs would cost him nearly 24 points over a full season and shift him from WR1 to solid WR2 territory, which is still higher than he’s being drafted, so the touchdown regression is baked into his ADP. His ESPN YAC (15th percentile) and a 17th-percentile drop rate are genuine concerns for a player entering his age-34 season, and the Rams have essentially zero vacated WR targets to cushion any role reduction. He's a fine WR2 if Stafford stays healthy and the touchdowns hold at double digits–but you're drafting on faith in a 38-year-old quarterback and a 34-year-old receiver maintaining both a health and a production floor.

Wilson is one of the most talented receivers in the league playing in an offense that hasn’t let him cook. His 97th-percentile ESPN OPEN score is among the very best in the sample–he creates clean separation as well as anyone. His 2025 ended after seven games with injury, but in those games he averaged 11.6 points per game (WR15 pace). The Jets have 99 vacated WR targets entering 2026–37.2 percent of the team's WR target share–which is a significant opportunity for a receiver who has never had consistent volume. Geno Smith arrives as a legitimate upgrade: he's not elite, but he's functional, accurate enough to find open receivers, and far less likely to leave Wilson wide open while throwing into coverage elsewhere. At WR17 with an early-fourth-round ADP, Wilson's value assumes he continues to produce at the same level, and that may not take into account his pending QB upgrade. A healthy Wilson with a usable quarterback and the Jets' expanded target vacancy is a legitimate top-15 wide receiver.

Shakir's profile is genuinely unique, and understanding it requires separating what he does from how fantasy values it. His PFF YAC per reception (98th percentile, 7.6 yards) and avoided tackle rate (98th percentile) are both elite–he's one of the most elusive receivers in football with the ball in his hands. The ESPN YAC score (88th percentile) corroborates it. He runs almost exclusively from the slot (93rd percentile slot rate) at an extremely short 3.9 average depth of target, which means he's essentially a gadget weapon on manufactured touches–and he's genuinely excellent at creating from that role. The problem is the other half of the profile: a 34th-percentile ESPN OPEN score and 23rd-percentile CATCH score suggest he isn't winning clean or converting reliably, which puts a ceiling on how much target share he can command. Two straight years of WR35-36 finishes confirm this. He's a reliable contributor but not a weekly WR2. D.J. Moore's arrival in Buffalo adds another body to an already crowded target tree alongside Josh Allen's rushing volume. Moore played almost exclusively from the outside (84th-percentile wide rate last year), so he and Shakir aren't in direct competition for the slot, but Allen's runs suppress pass volume across the board and the math gets a little harder. As a midrange WR5 with a late ADP, Shakir is worth the dart throw for his elite YAC creation, but Moore's arrival is a mild headwind in an offense where targets were at a premium.

The injuries have been brutal, but the talent remains elite when Godwin is on the field. Before a dislocated ankle ended his 2024 season in Week 7, he was averaging 16.1 fantasy points per game, which was THE overall WR4 pace, with 82 yards per game and three games over 20 points in seven appearances. The dislocated ankle recovery bled into 2025, where a fibula injury limited him to six games and just 40 yards per game. The yards after the catch ability remains–a 98th-percentile ESPN YAC score and 98th-percentile PFF avoided tackle rate from a player still operating at less than full health–reduces the concern about Godwin’s age. The situation heading into 2026 is significantly better. Mike Evans is gone, opening 116 vacated WR targets (32.2% of WR volume) and eight vacated red zone looks (33.3%). OC Zac Robinson has said the team has "huge expectations" for Godwin in the slot, which is exactly where he belongs. Hat-tip to Adam Pfeifer: in 16 games since 2024, Godwin has averaged 2.10 YPRR and 33% target rate per route from the slot versus 1.49 YPRR and 21% elsewhere; the production differential is stark and Robinson clearly knows it. He's going as a midrange WR4, which significantly undervalues what a healthy Godwin can do in a featured role: the per-game history, the slot production data, and the Evans-sized vacancy all point toward a rock-solid WR3 floor with legitimate WR2 upside if he stays upright.

Higgins' rookie season was relatively efficient–41 receptions for 525 yards and six touchdowns in a limited role alongside Nico Collins in 17 games. The six touchdowns on 67 targets (a 9.0% TD rate) are impressive. His hands are good: an 82nd-percentile ESPN CATCH score and 82nd-percentile drop rate confirm he's reliable when the ball arrives. The 60th-percentile OPEN score and 64th-percentile route grade aren’t bad for a rookie. Higgins’ production picked up in the second half of the season. He played at a 49-624-7.7, WR5 pace from Week 8 on. Houston has 55 vacated WR targets (15.9% of WR volume), and the Tank Dell potential return cuts both ways–if Dell returns healthy and commands his usual 80-plus target share, Higgins operates as a complementary WR2/WR3 and the ceiling stays capped. If Dell's health is again an issue, Higgins could inherit significantly more volume alongside Collins.

Doubs arrives in New England as the WR1 (for now) in one of the most exciting young offenses in football, and that description would have been unthinkable a year ago. His underlying metrics were genuinely solid in Green Bay–76th-percentile ESPN OPEN score, 85th-percentile CATCH score, 83rd-percentile OVERALL, and a 72nd-percentile PFF route grade and 73rd-percentile YPRR. He's an outside receiver (11th-percentile slot rate) who wins on his routes and catches the ball reliably, which is exactly the profile Drake Maye's 100th-percentile efficiency can elevate. New England has 100 vacated WR targets (35.3% of WR volume), and Doubs is first in line to absorb them at this point. The A.J. Brown trade situation is the key: if Brown arrives, Doubs becomes a solid WR2 in one of the better offenses in football–a reasonable outcome given his WR4 ADP. If Brown doesn't come, Doubs is the likely WR1 with a legitimate top-20 ceiling. Either scenario at current ADP represents value. He's one of the more interesting double-digit values in the draft.

Thomas’s sophomore collapse was as complete as any in recent memory. He went from the overall WR4 finish as a rookie–14.2 points per game, seven games over 15 points, genuine WR1 production–to WR44 overall at 8.3 points per game in 2025. The underlying 2025 metrics are alarming: a 2nd-percentile ESPN CATCH score, a 10th-percentile ESPN YAC score, a 17th-percentile OPEN score, and a 1st-percentile OVERALL score–literally the worst in the 110-receiver sample. The 2024 version of Thomas clearly existed, we all saw it. The production was real and the 16-game sample was big enough to trust. However, he was significantly better with Mac Jones (86 yards per game) than he was with Trevor Lawrence (66 yards per game) as a rookie, and his two-season averages with Lawrence at quarterback aren’t special: 3.6 catches for 57 yards and 0.30 touchdowns over a 23-game sample. He's going as a low-end WR3, so drafters are betting that he has some (positive) regression to his rookie production. Unless the camp reports are glowing this summer, given his lackluster production with Lawrence, I’ll be placing my Jacksonville bets elsewhere.

Nacua led all receivers in ESPN OVERALL score (100th percentile) and was 99th in OPEN, and his PFF route grade (100th percentile) and YPRR (3.71, 100th percentile) were both the best in the entire sample. He backed it up: 129 receptions, 1,715 yards, 10 touchdowns, and a WR1 overall finish at 19.3 points per game in 2025. He also had a 91st-percentile contested catch rate and 86th-percentile YAC per reception, making him effective at every phase of the route. The only flag on his profile is the durability history–he played 11 games in 2024 before returning for a full 2025–and Matthew Stafford's age. Both are real risks, but Stafford was elite last season (91st-percentile EPA) and Nacua's separation ability means he doesn't require elite quarterback play to produce. He's going as the overall WR2, and the metrics make it very difficult to argue with.

Johnston took a meaningful step forward in 2025–WR27 overall and WR24 per game at 10.4 points in 14 games, a real improvement from a so-so WR43 finish the year before. The eight touchdowns in 14 games drove the production and show that Herbert looks for him in the red zone. His ESPN scores are balanced across the board–54th-percentile OPEN, 65th-percentile CATCH, 70th-percentile YAC, 62nd-percentile OVERALL–which isn't elite but is a functional profile for a big outside receiver. The 94th-percentile avoided tackle rate is the standout metric: when Johnston gets the ball in space, he's difficult to bring down. The PFF route grade (51st percentile) and YPRR (61st percentile) say he's average at creating separation–he's a boundary receiver who relies on physicality and yards after contact rather than route technique. The Chargers have 118 vacated WR targets (33%) with Keenan Allen gone. Johnston is the natural WR2 candidate as the team's primary outside option, with Ladd McConkey owning the slot and rookie Tre Harris still developing. Herbert's established connection with his receivers gives Johnston a real path to 100-plus targets. He's going as a low-end WR4 and appears to be one of the better mid-round values at the position.

Washington's involvement after the Travis Hunter injury is the best argument for drafting him: 4.6 catches, 71 yards, and 0.44 touchdowns per game on 6.7 targets across Weeks 9 to 18, translating to 12.0 fantasy points per game in a significant role. He finished with 58-847-5 on 95 targets in 16 games. The underlying metrics back the potential. His PFF route grade (90th percentile) and YPRR (87th percentile) are among the stronger profiles in the sample, and his 86th-percentile contested catch rate and 85th-percentile avoided tackle rate confirm he can win at the point of attack and create after contact. The ESPN YAC score (85th percentile) and 65th-percentile OVERALL show a receiver who makes plays when given the opportunity. The 12.0 PPG sample wasn't a fluke against soft competition: it was a productive 23-year-old receiver finally given a starting role in an offense with a capable quarterback.

Meyers is easy to underrate because nothing about his game leaps off the page. His 78th-percentile ESPN CATCH score and 64th-percentile drop rate reflect what he actually is: a reliable possession receiver. After scoring 10.1 fantasy points per game post-trade from Week 11 to Week 18 (4.9-55-0.38 on 7.3 targets), Meyers again showed he can function as a productive WR2 in the right context. He runs routes from all over the formation (70th-percentile slot rate) and wins through savvy and positioning rather than athleticism–46th-percentile OPEN score, average PFF route grade, competent but not special YPRR. Jacksonville's 61 vacated WR targets include 13 inside-the-10 looks (34.2% of red zone volume). As a WR4, he's a reliable floor option given how Jacksonville immediately used him after the trade.

Every meaningful receiver metric points in the same direction with JSN. He led all wide receivers in ESPN OPEN score (100th percentile) and ranked 98th in OVERALL, and his PFF route grade (99th percentile) and YPRR (3.62, 99th percentile) were both at the top of the sample. The production matched: 119 receptions, 1,793 yards, and 10 touchdowns in 2025–a WR2 overall finish at 18.1 points per game. He also added an 82nd-percentile contested catch rate, which tells you he's not just a soft-route slot receiver who needs clean looks to function. Sam Darnold is a minor concern at quarterback–93rd percentile CPOE sounds great until you see the 14 interceptions–but Darnold got the job done last year and JSN is the rare receiver whose separation ability is good enough to overcome questionable quarterback play. He's going as the WR3 overall, and the metrics justify it.

There are times that the talent is elite and the ADP is still a problem. Nabers is one of the best young receivers in football–his combined 2024 season and three healthy games in 2025 average out to 14.7 points per game over 17 games, a genuine WR1 number that would have made him 2025’s WR6 on a per-game basis. His 92nd-percentile ESPN OPEN score reflects one of the best separation profiles at the position, and his 85th-percentile YPRR confirms that per-route production over a small but meaningful sample. The health situation is the entire conversation. Nabers underwent surgery for a torn ACL and meniscus in October, then had a follow-up procedure in April to remove scar tissue–the team says the second procedure doesn't delay the recovery timeline, but it's now been eight months since the initial injury. The Giants are targeting Week 1, though head coach John Harbaugh acknowledged it isn't guaranteed and Nabers could begin the year on the PUP list, which would cost him the first four games at minimum. Even if he plays Week 1, ACL recovery doesn't end at clearance–the ramp-up period introduces real risk of reduced production, potential setbacks, and the psychological adjustment of returning to game speed after a serious knee injury. He's going as the WR9 overall, which is a steep draft capital to use on a player who could miss the start of the season and faces legitimate uncertainty for weeks after returning. The floor of this pick is a frustrating, injury-managed half-season. The talent is real; the risk is terrifying.

Rice is one of the more compelling per-game profiles in fantasy football, with a complicated off-field situation worth tracking closely. When he's on the field, he's elite. In eight games last season after returning from a six-game NFL suspension, he averaged 15.5 fantasy points per game, or WR3 on a per-game basis. The PFF metrics back up the production: a 99th percentile YAC per reception (8.1) and 89th percentile YPRR (2.15) among qualified receivers, with a 78th percentile route grade to round it out. The 2024 pre-injury sample tells the same story. He was the WR3 per game across three healthy weeks before tearing an LCL in Week 4. His role is unique: a 4.9 average depth of target with elite YAC, meaning the Chiefs essentially use him as an extension of the run game, getting him the ball quickly and letting him create yards in space. The volume and the role generate elite per-game scoring. The off-field picture is much more complicated. In April, the NFL closed its investigation into civil-suit abuse allegations from Rice's former girlfriend and announced he would not face additional discipline beyond his already-served six-game 2025 suspension. However, in mid-May, Dallas County court records indicated Rice violated his probation from his 2024 hit-and-run case with a positive THC test and has been ordered to serve a 30-day jail sentence, with a release date of June 16, 2026. Complicating matters, he underwent a “clean-up” procedure on his knee just before being sent to prison. That should still leave him available for training camp, but it's a developing situation worth monitoring. Prior to the probation violation, he was the WR8, and it may take some time for his ADP to adjust. There’s real risk of another suspension, though it’s possible that he’ll serve his 30 days and be free to play the entire season.

Start with the ESPN OPEN score: 89th percentile, meaning Downs is getting free against coverage at a near-elite rate–right in the company of Malik Nabers and just ahead of CeeDee Lamb in a 110-receiver sample. That's the foundation of what Matt Harmon of Reception Perception saw last summer when he called Downs "a near superstar player who can do much more than your typical slot-based receiver" while suggesting he could feature in an offense in the same way Amon-Ra St. Brown does. Downs’ 79th percentile PFF route grade backs it up. He started his career with 68-771-2 and 72-803-5, and a 1,000-yard season felt inevitable. Then Alec Pierce had the breakout season while Downs finished WR48 overall at 6.7 points per game in 2025. The OVERALL score (60th percentile) makes the disconnect clear: he wins against coverage but the YAC (17th percentile) hasn't matched the separation. Michael Pittman is out of the way and Downs enters 2026 as the Colts' de facto WR1b. The opportunity he's been waiting for is here. The bet is that the volume closes the gap–more targets, more chances to convert the separation into production. The good news is that in the 28 games where Downs has played at least 40 snaps, he has averaged 5.1 catches for 55 yards and 0.29 touchdowns on 7.4 targets, or 9.8 fantasy points per game. Those are low-end WR3 numbers and his role could be even bigger than that. At a WR48 ADP in the ninth round, you don't need him to be Amon-Ra. You need him to look like his 2024 self with a bigger slice of the target pie.

Williams is a slot receiver in its most refined form. He ran 93% of his routes from the slot at Clemson and the efficiency in that role was real: a 90th-percentile PFF receiving grade, 81st-percentile yards per route run (2.27), and an 11th-percentile aDOT (7.7) that tells you exactly what he is and isn't. He wins underneath, catches everything–76.4% catch rate, one drop on the season–and moves the chains. As Matt Harmon puts it, he's a "high-volume slot option you can set your watch by"–winning against man and zone, reliable across all levels, non-flashy but dependable. The Washington fit is legitimately interesting. As Littlefinger once observed, chaos is a ladder, and the Commanders' WR depth chart behind Terry McLaurin is deeply chaotic–Treylon Burks, Luke McCaffrey, Dyami Brown, Jaylin Lane, Van Jefferson. Williams' primary competition in the slot is former third-rounder McCaffrey and fourth-rounder Lane; anyone who wins that job inherits Deebo Samuel's vacated slot snaps in a Jayden Daniels offense that distributes heavily underneath. Daniels' accuracy and willingness to check down is a natural complement to Williams' short-area game. The ceiling is genuinely capped by the 7.7 aDOT profile–he needs 80-plus targets to matter in fantasy and won't produce many explosive plays–but in a PPR format with a fully healthy Daniels throwing him the ball, he could be a viable weekly WR3 if he plays starter’s snaps. Keep an eye on Washington’s camp competition in the slot.

Concepcion is the most well-rounded receiver in the 2026 class on paper. He transferred from NC State to Texas A&M and posted 61 catches for 919 yards and nine touchdowns in the SEC–a 15.1 yards per catch average that reflects his big-play ability. The PFF college metrics confirm the range: a 91st-percentile receiving grade, 88th-percentile yards per route run (2.46), 89th-percentile contested catch rate (66.7%), and 89th-percentile YAC per reception (7.2)–four key metrics all landing in the top 11% of the position simultaneously. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception was effusive: Concepcion's profile was nearly "all-green" in every route category, demolishing man and press coverage, producing reliably against zone, and winning above the rim and in space. The scheme flexibility is a real asset too–he split time between outside (65%) and slot (34%) alignment. The landing spot is the entire problem for 2026. Cleveland's quarterback situation heading into the summer–Shedeur Sanders, Deshaun Watson, and Dillon Gabriel competing for a job on a team that posted the worst passer rating in the NFL last season–puts a worrisome ceiling on any receiver's first-year output. Concepcion has the talent to flourish as a WR1/WR2 in a functional passing game; he just doesn't have one yet. It’s going to take competent quarterback play to unlock Concepcion’s potential.

Tate posted a 98th-percentile PFF receiving grade (89.0), 97th-percentile yards per route run (3.02), and a 97th-percentile contested catch rate (85.7%) coming out of Ohio State, and didn't drop a pass. He's a big-bodied X receiver who wins downfield (84th-percentile aDOT of 14.6) and lined up outside on 89% of his routes, with a 21st-percentile slot rate that tells you he's a boundary alpha by design rather than a scheme creation. He ran a 4.53 forty at the combine, but as Matt Harmon of Reception Perception noted, "a refined technician who is an explosive option downfield can become a featured weapon," and Tate's game is built more on tracking and catching than on creating separation with pure speed. Harmon compared him directly to Tetairoa McMillan from last year's class, who was drafted top-ten and delivered a solid rookie season in Carolina as an instant real-world WR1. The Tennessee landing spot works even if it’s not ideal. The Titans have 60 vacated WR targets (20.3% of WR volume) and a significant 1,147 vacated air yards (30.9%). Tate's downfield game slots directly into that vacancy. Pairing him with Wan'Dale Robinson in the slot gives Cam Ward a genuine 1-2 punch: Tate commanding targets on intermediate and deep routes while Robinson works underneath. Tennessee's defense is unlikely to win enough games to limit the offense’s aggressiveness, and history is on Tate’s side–the 14 receivers drafted in the top 10 and played at least 15 games as rookies averaged 74-1016-6.6, or midrange fantasy WR2 numbers. He's going as the WR30, so if things click with Ward, and he stays healthy, Tate is a real threat to return better value than that.

When Kittle is healthy, there's an argument he's the most complete tight end in the game. His ESPN OVERALL score (100th percentile) and PFF pass route grade (100th percentile) were both the best in the entire TE sample last season—and this was in only 10 games before a torn Achilles ended his year. In those 10 games, he averaged 12.8 points per game, TE2 on a per-game basis. In 2024, he was the overall TE1 at 13.9 per game over 14 games. His YPRR (2.15, 95th percentile) and his contested catch rate (84.6%, 92nd percentile) confirm that he's an elite route runner and a physical mismatch when the ball is in the air. The 49ers added Mike Evans and Christian Kirk to replace Jauan Jennings, and Brock Purdy's 98th percentile CPOE should give us plenty of confidence that Kittle will continue to receive quality targets. The torn Achilles recovery is the entire story. He could miss the start of the season, and the timeline matters enormously at his current TE10 ADP—a price that gives you significant upside if he plays 13-plus games and a frustrating experience if he misses the first month and/or the injury lingers deep into the season. Draft him knowing you'll need a streaming plan for the early weeks, and that you're paying a discounted price on one of the best players at the position when he's right. And he might be right by the fantasy playoffs.

Pitts finally delivered on a fraction of his draft pedigree in 2025, finishing as the overall TE2 with 88 receptions, 928 yards, and five touchdowns on 114 targets. The PFF metrics confirm the underlying talent is real: 86th-percentile route grade and 83rd-percentile YPRR among qualified tight ends. The ESPN receiver scores tell a more nuanced story—49th percentile in OPEN, 71st percentile OVERALL—suggesting that Pitts wins through size and athleticism rather than pure separation, which aligns with the trajectory of his career. The concern is the volatility that shadowed him even in a TE2 season: only six of 16 games went over 10 points, and five went under five. Both Bijan Robinson and Drake London will continue to act as a volume ceiling. In fact, Pitts’s scoring output doubled in the five games that London missed (7.4 vs. 15.5). Pitts is going as the TE7, which reflects the 2025 output without fully pricing in the inconsistency. He's a legitimate every-week starter who will frustrate you in the weeks when the touchdowns don't come.

Warren's rookie numbers present an interesting puzzle. He finished TE7 overall in his first NFL season but only TE11 on a per-game basis at 9.1 points per game, and his ESPN receiver scores were near the bottom of the tight end sample—9th percentile in OPEN score and 8th percentile OVERALL—suggesting he struggled to consistently create separation against NFL coverage. At the same time, his PFF metrics told a different story: 75th percentile in YPRR and an 88th percentile YAC per reception, indicating that when he did get the ball, he did real damage. The 68th percentile route grade for a rookie is respectable and suggests the foundation is there for improvement. He also runs a high percentage of routes from the slot (68th percentile), which helps. The disconnect between the ESPN and the PFF productivity metrics isn't unusual for a rookie TE learning to navigate NFL coverage—the YPRR and YAC numbers suggest the tools are real.

Loveland's rookie season is a case study in talent that took a while to show up on the field. He finished TE14 overall and TE18 per game at 7.7 points per game, but his underlying metrics rank among the elite at the position. His PFF pass route grade (97th percentile) and YPRR (1.86, 92nd percentile) are both near the top of the tight end sample, and his ESPN OPEN score (68th percentile) suggests he’s able to shed coverage consistently. There’s a long list of tight ends who have broken out in their sophomore year, and the signs are there. From Week 9 on, he was the overall TE2 behind Trey McBride. He's currently going as the third tight end off the board, and the market is essentially pricing in a breakout that appears to have already begun.

Henry is one of the better values at the position given his current ADP. He's finished TE9 and TE12 the last two seasons while catching 60 passes for 768 yards and seven touchdowns last year. His ESPN OPEN score (87th percentile), his PFF route grade (75th percentile) and his YPRR (68th percentile) are all legitimately good, and his 8.8 per-game average last season was better than several tight ends going two rounds ahead of him. The departure of Austin Hooper clears the depth chart, making Henry the unquestioned primary tight end option in an offense that is actively improving. Drake Maye's 100th percentile CPOE and 100th percentile EPA last season suggest he's developing into one of the better young passers in the league, and if A.J. Brown arrives, the attention that the receiver commands will create cleaner opportunities underneath for Henry. At a TE20 ADP–mid-to-late-round range–for a player at the end of his prime still delivering consistent TE9-to-TE12 production, Henry is the kind of late-round value that can provide baseline production, allowing managers to load up on talent elsewhere.

Johnson had the best season of his career in 2025, finishing TE10 overall at 8.5 points per game, which was a significant jump from his TE23 finish in 2024. He caught 77 of 102 targets for 889 yards and three touchdowns, with the volume reflecting both his expanded role and the relatively thin Saints' receiving corps around Tyler Shough. The ESPN scores back up the production: 83rd percentile OPEN score, 67th percentile OVERALL. His PFF YPRR (79th percentile) and slot rate (84th percentile) confirm what he is—a reliable middle-of-the-field target. The Saints drafted Jordyn Tyson, who immediately becomes a legitimate weapon opposite Chris Olave and should command meaningful target share. That's the entire question for Johnson's 2026: how much of the volume that drove his TE10 finish gets reallocated to Tyson and the established receivers, and how much stays in the middle of the field. He's going as a TE2 in the late rounds, and that price assumes some target share regression with the upgraded WR room. If Shough leans on Johnson as the security blanket and the touchdowns regress positively from three, there's a TE1 ceiling here. If Tyson eats into the targets that were going to Johnson, he settles back into a low-end TE2.

Kraft was one of my favorite middle-round values last year and if his ADP lingers in the sixth or seventh round this season, he’s going to be my primary target at the position. The ACL tear that ended his season in Week 9 may have obscured one of the most impressive statistical profiles at the tight end position. In seven games before the injury, he averaged 14.0 points per game—the overall TE1 on a per-game basis—and was playing at a 73-catch, 1139-yard, 14.6-touchdown pace. The PFF metrics were historic for a player in just his second full year: 99th percentile in YPRR (2.33) and 100th percentile in YAC per reception (10.8) among tight ends. His 90th percentile route grade suggests this wasn't a small-sample fluke—he was creating separation and turning targets into big plays at an elite rate. His ESPN OVERALL score (89th percentile) and the 86th-percentile avoided tackle rate further reinforce the profile. Kraft is on track to return for Week 1, but at a seventh-round ADP, the value is significant if he comes back near full health. You're getting a player who was producing at a TE1 per-game pace before the injury for a fraction of the price of the tier above him.

Kincaid's per-game profile in 2025 was legitimately elite. In 11 games, he averaged 9.1 points while posting a 100th-percentile YPRR (2.79) and 95th-percentile PFF route grade–the best YPRR in the entire tight end sample. His ESPN OVERALL score (98th percentile) and OPEN score (95th percentile) are both at the top of the position. When Kincaid was on the field with Josh Allen, he was one of the most productive receiving tight ends in the league. The rub is the 12 games in 2025 and 13 in 2024–he hasn't yet strung together a full healthy season, and the Bills' offense is a little more crowded with D.J. Moore now in the room alongside Khalil Shakir. Kincaid is going as the TE13, and that price represents a bet on a player with the efficiency markers of a top-five tight end who hasn’t recently been able to stay healthy long enough to prove it over a full year. If Kincaid plays 15-plus games in 2026, his underlying metrics suggest he could run away with a top-10 season. Discount accordingly for the health risk, but don't lose sight of the fact that the production when healthy has been exceptional.

Gadsden took on the TE1 role in Los Angeles last season and delivered a mixed result—TE17 overall, TE19 per game at 7.4 points per game over 14 games, with significant volatility on both ends. He had a 25.9-point explosion but also six games under five points. His YPRR (1.66, 76th percentile) was genuinely solid for a first-year starter, and his contested catch rate (66.7%, 78th percentile) shows he can come down with the football when challenged. The big issue now is the signing of David Njoku, who arrives as a proven TE1-caliber player and immediately complicates Gadsden's target security. Gadsden's value last season was entirely predicated on being the primary option at the position, so if Njoku absorbs the red zone work, Gadsden’s potential breakout season just isn’t going to happen. Post Njoku signing, he's now going as the TE15, which better reflects his current situation as a riskier TE2 in a potential timeshare. Proceed with caution until the role is defined.

Otton is one of the more interesting late-round bets at the position thanks to a specific and well-documented opportunity profile. He finished TE30 overall in 2025 at just 4.9 points per game—a meaningful step back from his TE13 finish in 2024—largely because of touchdown regression. He caught 59 of 80 targets for 572 yards but scored just one touchdown, which torpedoed what would have otherwise been a productive volume season. The underlying metrics are mixed: a 75th-percentile ESPN OPEN score suggests he gets open at a reasonable rate, but his PFF route grade (16th percentile) and YPRR (24th percentile) point to inefficiency on a per-snap basis. His slot rate (81st percentile) and short 5.1 average depth of target frame him as an underneath option who profits from volume rather than from creating big plays. The reason he matters in 2026 is Mike Evans' departure. In the 12 games Evans has missed over the last two seasons, Otton has averaged 6.6 targets, 4.8 catches, 44 yards, and 0.25 touchdowns per game, which works out to 8.4 fantasy points per game, or midrange TE2 numbers. Evans wasn't just any departing receiver; he was Tampa's primary red zone threat, and the touchdowns that flowed through him should redistribute meaningfully. Chris Godwin returns from injury, Emeka Egbuka takes on a larger role, and Jalen McMillan is back, but none of those three is a Mike Evans-level red zone presence. Otton, at 6'5", is the most logical beneficiary in the end zone. He's going as a TE3 in the late rounds, and the path to a TE15 or better finish is genuinely there. He’s a solid late-round flier with positive regression baked in.

LaPorta's underlying metrics in 2025 were some of the best in the tight end sample despite playing just nine games—his 93rd-percentile YPRR (2.00), 92nd-percentile route grade, and 90th-percentile YAC per reception all reflect a player operating at a high level when healthy. He caught every contested target thrown his way and didn't drop a single pass. The per-game production tells the same story. He was theTE7 on a per-game basis in both 2024 and 2025, at 9.0 and 9.7 points respectively. The Lions' spread-it-around offense limits how high his ceiling goes. Detroit leans heavily on Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and the rushing game, which means LaPorta operates in an environment where targets are shared and touchdowns are the primary path to big weeks. He's going as the TE7, and the value proposition is a player who has been quietly elite from a per-game standpoint in limited action and should be fully healthy entering the season. LaPorta is a midrange TE1 with enough upside to function as a weekly starter when the Lions give him opportunities in the red zone.

Bowers has the tools to be the best tight end in fantasy football. He finished TE2 in 2024 and TE4 on a per-game basis in 2025 despite missing five games. His 12.0 points per game over those 12 games were essentially identical to his rookie production. The underlying metrics are elite: 88th percentile PFF pass route grade among tight ends, 81st percentile in YPRR (1.70), and a 72nd percentile contested catch rate that reflects his physicality when the ball is in the air. His ESPN OVERALL score (89th percentile) is among the best in the sample. The limitation has always been team context. The Raiders are one of the worst offensive environments in the league, i.e. fewer touchdowns scored, and Bowers has had to absorb that drag on his production. He's going as the consensus TE1, likely due to the belief that Fernando Mendoza will turn the Raiders’ offense around.

Barner quietly put together one of the better Year 2 leaps at the position, jumping from 3.2 points per game as a rookie to a TE13 finish at 7.4 points per game in 2025. The six touchdowns drove most of the production, but he caught 52 of 64 targets for a solid 519 yards in 17 games. The PFF underlying metrics are middling rather than impressive (69th percentile route grade, 53rd percentile YPRR), but his ESPN OVERALL score (77th percentile) is genuinely good, and his contested catch rate (78th percentile) and avoided tackle rate (73rd percentile) suggest he's a solid receiver for an in-line tight end. The 3rd percentile slot rate confirms what the eye test says: Barner is a true Y-TE, lined up tight to the formation, doing damage near the line of scrimmage rather than streaking down the seams. That role profile gives him a touchdown-dependent fantasy ceiling, and the six TDs from last year may not be entirely repeatable, though he’s the biggest target that Sam Darnold has. He's going as a TE2 in deeper formats, and he's a fine late-round option for managers who want a player with weekly TE1 upside attached to red zone usage—just don't expect significant volume growth.

Sadiq is a unicorn athlete at the tight end position. Per Player Profiler, he tested at the 100th percentile in the 40-yard dash, 100th percentile in Speed Score, 100th percentile in Burst Score, and 99th percentile in Catch Radius—a Vernon Davis-level athletic profile. Oregon deployed him accordingly, lining him up in the slot at a 90th-percentile rate (58.5%) among all tight ends in the PFF dataset. This isn’t a blocking tight end who happened to run fast at the combine; this is a movable chess piece who can stress defenses from every alignment. The Jets already spent a Day 2 pick on Mason Taylor last year, and Taylor led the team in receptions (44) as a rookie. The bigger issue is the quarterback situation. Geno Smith is a bridge, this offense ranked 29th in scoring last year, and target competition with Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall will cap volume early. For Sadiq, back-end TE2 with splash weeks driven by that absurd athletic profile.