• Curtis Samuel

  • WR
  • , Carolina Panthers
  • 24
  • 196 lbs
  • 5' 11"
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118627654130
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Draft note
by John Paulsen
Samuel had terrible luck on his deep balls last season. Just five of his 27 deep ball targets (20+ yards downfield) were deemed catchable (per PFF), and he caught all five. Of the 49 receivers with at least 15 deep ball targets last year, Samuel was 49th in catchable target rate. Had he enjoyed league-average accuracy, he would project to catch an additional 6.7 passes for another 218 receiving yards. That would have put him at 60-845 instead of 54-627. Assuming he didn’t catch any more touchdowns, which is being conservative, he would have finished as the No. 25 receiver instead of his actual No. 36 finish (half-PPR). Throw in two more touchdowns and he would have outscored Stefon Diggs as last year’s No. 21 receiver. The Saints didn’t ask Teddy Bridgewater to throw deep very often, but when they did, he usually delivered. Per Sports Info Solutions, nine of Bridgewater’s 14 deep ball attempts were on target, which was No. 5 among the 44 quarterbacks with at least 11 deep ball attempts. Bridgewater wasn’t particularly accurate the last time he saw significant playing time in 2015, but his performance in 2019 gives Samuel some hope in 2020.

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Scouting report

by Brandon Niles

CAR WR Curtis Samuel - 2020 Fantasy Football Outlook

Fantasy Upside

Curtis Samuel is a versatile threat with a nose for the end zone. He’s scored 14 touchdowns over the past two seasons, including three on run plays, despite only touching the ball 120 times during that span. He eclipsed 100 targets for the first time in his career last season and seems to have carved a nice role for himself in the Carolina offense. He’s a playmaker and was healthy all of last season for the first time after struggling with injuries in his first two years.

Fantasy Downside

Though he was targeted 105 times last season, he caught just 54 of those balls. While the quarterback play was bad, and Sports Info Solutions has just 70 of those targets as “catchable,” a 51% catch rate and seven drops is definitely worrisome. Samuel also will struggle to get as many snaps out wide as he did last year with the addition of deep threat Robby Anderson from the Jets. It’s difficult to imagine Samuel improving on his totals from last season (54 catches, 627 yards) when he’s likely to play primarily in the slot. He took about 32% of his offensive snaps from that spot a year ago.

2020 Bottom Line

There are things to love and things to hate about Samuel as a viable fantasy option this season. Throw in the changes at quarterback and on the coaching staff and you have quite a conundrum. It’s a good thing he doesn’t cost much – 13th round in 12-team leagues – making him more of a lottery ticket than someone to be counted on as a starter. The truth is we don’t know how well this Panther offense is going to hum this season, so taking advantage of uncertainty and rostering Samuel at his very reasonable ADP is worth the risk. If he’s virtually replaced by Robby Anderson, you can always drop him after the first couple of weeks.

2020 Strength of Schedule - CAR

W1W2W3W4W5W6W7W8W9W10W11W12W13W14W15W16W17
27
LV
29
@TB
4
@LAC
19
ARI
21
@ATL
3
CHI
20
@NO
21
ATL
5
@KC
29
TB
32
DET
26
@MIN
BYE13
DEN
16
@GB
24
@WAS
20
NO

Schedule difficulty based on schedule-adjusted, positional defensive ranking. Top DEF = 1, bottom DEF = 32.

2019 Game Stats

WeekOppRecRecYdsRecTDTgtsYPRRuAttRuYdsRuTDFumYPCSTDPPRSnaps%
1LAR3320410.6700000.003.26.262/6792.5%
2TB59101318.2012002.009.314.377/7997.5%
3@ARI5531710.6000000.0011.316.348/6376.2%
4@HOU3320710.6711001.003.36.361/6889.7%
5JAX319066.332250012.504.47.459/6590.8%
6@TB4701617.5018108.0019.823.853/6680.3%
7BYE--------------
8@SF44601111.5000000.004.68.661/6988.4%
9TEN3641621.331100010.0013.416.453/7174.6%
10@GB435188.7500000.009.513.561/7383.6%
11ATL425076.2500000.002.56.572/7596.0%
12@NO19049.004400010.004.95.964/7684.2%
13WAS4651716.2500000.0012.516.569/7592.0%
14@ATL2250412.50317005.674.26.265/7191.5%
15SEA531186.20423005.7511.416.466/7291.7%
16@IND217058.5024002.002.14.153/7075.7%
17NO213046.5000000.001.33.346/7164.8%
Per game3.3839.190.386.6911.611.198.130.0606.847.3610.7360.63/70.6985.60%
Totals54627610711.6119130106.84117.7171.7970/113185.60%
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