Draft Note by John Paulsen
Curtis Samuel is a long-time favorite of Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon, and whenever one of his favorites sees a role or quarterback change, I take notice. Harmon charted Samuel in the 2018-2020 seasons and he finished with a success rate of 75%+ versus man coverage–88th percentile, which is very good–in all three seasons. His 2023 charting revealed a 75.4% success rate versus man, and he posted a career-high 80.0% success rate versus zone. In his last four seasons with 15+ games played, Samuel has crested 613 receiving yards in all four years, and has added an average of 139 yards per year as a runner. The Bills get a versatile weapon to utilize alongside Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Dalton Kincaid. Harmon agrees, “...everything about his profile shows that he will make a significant impact for a team that needs him.” Moreover, Samuel is being reunited with OC Joe Brady who squeezed a WR25 finish out of him in 2020 (with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback). Samuel had 118 touches (41 carries) for 1,051 yards and five touchdowns that year. He will be one of my primary late-round targets this season.
Curtis Samuel
- WR
- , Buffalo Bills
- 28
- 195 lbs
- 5' 11"
- 123
- 2
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Draft note
Curtis Samuel is a long-time favorite of Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon, and whenever one of his favorites sees a role or quarterback change, I take notice. Harmon charted Samuel in the 2018-2020 seasons and he finished with a success rate of 75%+ versus man coverage–88th percentile, which is very good–in all three seasons. His 2023 charting revealed a 75.4% success rate versus man, and he posted a career-high 80.0% success rate versus zone. In his last four seasons with 15+ games played, Samuel has crested 613 receiving yards in all four years, and has added an average of 139 yards per year as a runner. The Bills get a versatile weapon to utilize alongside Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Dalton Kincaid. Harmon agrees, “...everything about his profile shows that he will make a significant impact for a team that needs him.” Moreover, Samuel is being reunited with OC Joe Brady who squeezed a WR25 finish out of him in 2020 (with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback). Samuel had 118 touches (41 carries) for 1,051 yards and five touchdowns that year. He will be one of my primary late-round targets this season.
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2024 Strength of Schedule - BUF
| W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 | W14 | W15 | W16 | W17 | W18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 ARI | 17 @MIA | 20 JAX | 9 @BAL | 30 @HOU | 1 @NYJ | 22 TEN | 4 @SEA | 17 MIA | 12 @IND | 3 KC | BYE | 16 SF | 25 @LAR | 32 @DET | 24 NE | 1 NYJ | 24 @NE |
Schedule difficulty based on schedule-adjusted, positional defensive ranking. Top DEF = 1, bottom DEF = 32.
Game Stats
| Week | Opp | Rec | RecYds | RecTD | Tgts | YPR | RuAtt | RuYds | RuTD | Fum | YPC | STD | 0.5 PPR | PPR | Snaps | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 5 | 54 | 0 | 5 | 10.80 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6.00 | 6.0 | 8.50 | 11.0 | 46/71 | 64.8% |
| 2 | @DEN | 3 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 6.33 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13.00 | 3.2 | 4.70 | 6.2 | 45/73 | 61.6% |
| 3 | BUF | 2 | 54 | 0 | 4 | 27.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 5.4 | 6.40 | 7.4 | 40/54 | 74.1% |
| 4 | @PHI | 7 | 51 | 0 | 8 | 7.29 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.00 | 11.2 | 14.70 | 18.2 | 54/78 | 69.2% |
| 5 | CHI | 6 | 65 | 1 | 7 | 10.83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 12.5 | 15.50 | 18.5 | 49/70 | 70.0% |
| 6 | @ATL | 4 | 42 | 1 | 4 | 10.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 10.2 | 12.20 | 14.2 | 32/51 | 62.7% |
| 7 | @NYG | 4 | 25 | 0 | 8 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.5 | 4.50 | 6.5 | 38/69 | 55.1% |
P
Injury Details (w8)
Status: Probable Injury: Foot | PHI | 4 | 22 | 0 | 4 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.2 | 4.20 | 6.2 | 14/72 | 19.4% |
O
Injury Details (w9)
Status: Out Injury: Toe | @NE | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 10 | @SEA | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.6 | 1.60 | 2.6 | 31/61 | 50.8% |
| 11 | NYG | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.5 | 1.00 | 1.5 | 13/81 | 16.0% |
| 12 | @DAL | 9 | 100 | 0 | 12 | 11.11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 10.0 | 14.50 | 19.0 | 43/78 | 55.1% |
| 13 | MIA | 4 | 65 | 0 | 5 | 16.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 6.5 | 8.50 | 10.5 | 32/55 | 58.2% |
| 14 | BYE | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 15 | @LAR | 5 | 41 | 2 | 9 | 8.20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 16.1 | 18.60 | 21.1 | 43/60 | 71.7% |
| 16 | @NYJ | 1 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 16.00 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2.00 | 2.0 | 2.50 | 3.0 | 40/61 | 65.6% |
| 17 | SF | 3 | 33 | 0 | 4 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.3 | 4.80 | 6.3 | 23/46 | 50.0% |
| 18 | DAL | 2 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 7.50 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 15.00 | 3.0 | 4.00 | 5.0 | 28/49 | 57.1% |
| Per game | 3.88 | 38.31 | 0.25 | 5.69 | 9.89 | 0.44 | 2.44 | 0.06 | 0 | 5.57 | 5.95 | 7.89 | 9.83 | 35.69/64.31 | 56.35% | |
| Totals | 62 | 613 | 4 | 91 | 9.89 | 7 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 5.57 | 95.2 | 126.2 | 157.2 | 571/1029 | 56.35% | |
