• Nick Chubb

  • RB
  • , Cleveland Browns
  • 26
  • 225 lbs
  • 5' 10"
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19210671216150
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Draft note
by John Paulsen
Chubb finished as the No. 9 running back in half-PPR despite playing only 12 games. (He had the No. 6 per game average.) In 2019, he was the No. 7 fantasy back. He consistently ranks among the top at his position in PFF rushing grade (fourth), yards after contact per attempt (sixth) and broken tackles per attempt (sixth). There are only two concerns with Chubb: 1) he doesn’t catch many passes (just 16 in 12 games last season, though he had 36 catches the year before, so he’s capable), and 2) the presence of Kareem Hunt caps his upside. Still, given Chubb’s rushing prowess, Kevin Stefanski’s efficient running game, and the Browns’ elite offensive line, he’s a rock-solid pick in the first round.

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Scouting report

by Frank Ammirante

CLE RB Nick Chubb - 2021 Fantasy Football Outlook

Fantasy Upside

Nick Chubb rushed for 1,067 yards and 12 touchdowns on 190 carries (5.6 Y/A). He also caught 16-of-18 targets for 150 yards in 12 games. Despite his lack of usage in the passing game, Chubb still finished as RB5 in half-PPR points per game. This is a special runner who plays in an offense that projects to be one of the best in the NFL. He also runs behind one of the most dominant offensive lines in the league. Chubb has the upside to rush for 1,300+ yards and 15+ touchdowns, which would make him a premium fantasy asset even with his status as a zero in the passing game. If Kareem Hunt were forced to miss time due to injury, Chubb would be right beside Derrick Henry as a dominant bell-cow running back. We could also see Chubb catch more passes in Hunt’s absence. Chubb provides a nice combination of floor and upside.

Fantasy Downside
Since Chubb is barely used in the passing game and Kareem Hunt is still taking away touches, Chubb needs to be super-efficient in order to retain his status as a Top-12 running back. Last season, Chubb rushed for a career-high 5.6 yards per carry and it’s tough to maintain that type of efficiency. There’s also a low chance that if Hunt plays above expectation, he could carve out a larger role in the offense. Having said that, Chubb is still an elite runner, so it’s reasonable to project him as one of the more efficient backs in the league, especially given his strong team context.

2021 Bottom Line
Chubb is a strong bet for 1,200+ rushing yards and 10+ touchdowns with sky-high upside if Hunt were forced to miss time. Currently being drafted as RB9 (13.1 ADP) in Underdog fantasy leagues, Chubb is priced appropriately given his floor and upside. Even in a worst-case scenario, Chubb should be able to provide Top-15 value at RB. Don’t worry too much about Hunt, as this is still a run-heavy offense with enough volume to go around for both backs to provide production. At the same time, it’s tough to see Chubb finishing in the Top-3 at his position without an injury to Hunt.

2021 Strength of Schedule - CLE

W1W2W3W4W5W6W7W8W9W10W11W12W13W14W15W16W17
24
@KC
31
HOU
4
CHI
23
@MIN
17
@LAC
19
ARI
22
DEN
6
PIT
27
@CIN
21
@NE
32
DET
13
@BAL
BYE13
BAL
30
LV
25
@GB
6
@PIT

Schedule difficulty based on schedule-adjusted, positional defensive ranking. Top DEF = 1, bottom DEF = 32.

Game Stats

WeekOppRuAttRuYdsRuTDFumYPCRecRecYdsRecTDTgtsYPRSTDPPRSnaps%
1@BAL1060016.0016016.004.65.635/7347.9%
2CIN22124205.6419019.0025.326.336/5862.1%
3WAS19108205.6812012.0023.024.034/6354.0%
4@DAL643007.1700000.004.34.314/7518.7%
5IND--------------
6@PIT--------------
7@CIN--------------
8LV--------------
9BYE--------------
10HOU19126106.6300010.0018.618.628/6543.1%
11PHI20114005.7000000.0011.411.430/6744.8%
12@JAX19144107.583320310.6723.626.641/6761.2%
13@TEN1880104.441260126.0016.617.636/7250.0%
14BAL1782204.822210210.5022.324.344/8353.0%
15@NYG1550103.33216028.0012.614.638/6459.4%
16@NYJ1128102.55538057.6012.617.647/8158.0%
17PIT14108107.7100010.0016.816.827/6243.5%
Per game15.8388.921.000.085.621.3312.5001.509.3815.9817.3134.17/69.1749.64%
Totals19010671215.62161500189.38191.7207.7410/83049.64%
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