Analyzing a 12-Team Salary Cap Mock Draft (July)

We last convened at the end of June to do a salary cap mock draft with 12 drafters experienced in the format. The results and write-up of the draft are still available and provide some context before going into this month’s breakdown.

But now we are already at the end of July and we got 11 new drafters together to join me for some new data a month after our first mock. The results were quite interesting and go to prove the point that salary cap drafts vary wildly from room to room. Let’s check in on some key price changes since June and see how the flow of this draft differed from last month. Therein lie some lessons for us to take into our 2023 drafts. Don’t forget to come back in August for the conclusion of the series after our third mock.

More Salary Cap Content: 7 Discounted Players in Salary Cap Drafts | Salary Cap Nomination Strategy | How to Approach 2023 Salary Cap Drafts | Studs & Scrubs | Striking at Value in Salary Cap Drafts |

Here's a reminder of the league setup. The format was meant to resemble the most typical fantasy leagues out there despite the growing popularity of other ways to play the game.

We went with:

• 1 QB/2 RB/3 WR/1 TE/1 K/1 DEF/1 FLX
• 8 Bench Spots
• PPR
• $200 Salary Cap

Overall Observations

Last month I talked about how tight the room was and how the spending was controlled and deliberate. This month started in the exact opposite fashion. I often talk about how, no matter the room, there is a discount at the beginning of most drafts when people are settling in and don’t want to spend a lot of money. This draft did not have that. Garrett Wilson was nominated first and went for $41, a not insignificant amount over his typical price in the mid to upper $30s. It continued from there with drafters aggressively pursuing anyone who came up for bid. Christian McCaffrey went for $64, then Nick Chubb hit $60 a few nominations later, and even Trevor Lawrence doubled his June price with a $20 final bid this time around. There were some exceptions in there, but precious few. This was definitely a room where hanging back would be the right play from the start. Prices were too high and they would definitely be coming down as the draft went on.

The Wide Receiver Issue

Last month I discussed the wide receiver rush as drafters continue to put larger and larger shares of their cap into the position. But things pulled back a bit on that front in this draft. When looking for a reason why, I stumbled upon an interesting theory. The drafters in the June iteration are all part of what I refer to as the Fantasy Twitter Bubble where groupthink tends to influence opinions. The wide receiver rush was much more pronounced there. But July had more managers not in the “bubble” and the pricing showed a difference. While money still flowed to wide receivers, the effect was more muted. This could be key when evaluating your particular room this summer. Is it a more casual home league? Or a group of hard-core plugged-in managers who follow the industry closely? The former may still push money to running back, but the latter is likely to follow the wide receiver trend.

Checking In at Quarterback

Quarterback prices have been noticeably higher this summer in most drafts, often with the top three guys going over $30. This didn’t happen as much in July, but instead of drawing much of a conclusion from it, I think the results can be largely ignored. Prices were down only because the money left the room so quickly in the first part of the draft. When quarterbacks came up early their prices were a bit high with Lawrence at $20 and Joe Burrow coming in at $24. The Top 3 didn’t break the bank with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts all going in the upper $20s. But, the prices were affected by lack of money in the room, and even though the top guys were cheaper, the spending went deeper into the tiers. There isn’t much actionable here except to remember the key to all salary cap drafting – getting your guys nominated at the right time drastically affects your chances of whether you land them or not. This was glaringly obvious at the quarterback position in this mock.

Key Price Changes

One of the fun parts of salary cap drafting is that you could finish a draft, put the same 12 drafters back in a room to do it all over again and you would get completely different results. Of course, we changed up the drafters this month, but the idea remains the same: No two salary cap draft rooms are alike. Let’s look at some price differences between June and July.

Conclusions from Price Changes

The challenge when looking at the price changes is to determine whether they happened because of recent news, or whether they happened because the nomination order and drafters changed. That’s not easy, but the best thing to do is think about what’s happened in the past month and whether the player’s corresponding average draft position in snake leagues has changed to explain a change in price. There doesn’t need to be a direct correlation, but there is bound to be some crossover.

Trevor Lawrence had two factors working on his price. One was that he came up early during the initial frenzy of this draft. The other is that optimism in the community has risen as reports of Calvin Ridley’s glowing camp have surfaced. The general feel of drafters is overwhelmingly positive on the whole Jacksonville offense. When taking these two together it’s not hard to see why his price doubled.

Deebo Samuel is on the other end of a narrative in the fantasy world. The non-stop momentum for Brandon Aiyuk and the corresponding pessimism for Samuel after a rough 2022 has continued to build. Samuel fell down to a palatable $14 this month and that looks like the perfect price to be in on him as a WR3 for your salary cap team.

Amari Cooper’s $7 fall is a curious one. From all accounts in camp, Deshaun Watson is looking much better and the offense as a whole looks poised to take a step forward. Perhaps the Elijah Moore hype train is affecting Cooper’s stock, but it could also be as simple as the fact that Cooper came up in the seventh round of nominations so the money was starting to run thin. I wouldn’t take the dip too seriously, but I’m certainly not ignoring it either.

People apparently still don’t care too much about Najee Harris or Deshaun Watson. The prices on both were low in both rooms and that seems to be a pretty clear indicator that there is value there. Am I sold on Watson? Hardly, but for $4-$7 you can easily back him up with another guy to give you a hedge. Am I sold on Harris? Mostly, yes. He’s going to get a lot of touches and it seems probable that his early season foot injury contributed to a poor start to the year. Any price under $30 for Harris is a gift you should consider taking in order to push more money to other positions.

I can’t possibly break down each price change in one column, but if you take some time with the prices from these two drafts (and the one coming in August) you’ll be able to spot some important price inequities. Putting the numbers in context (when were they nominated? Has there been any recent news?) is hugely important, but the lessons are there and ripe for the picking.

Effects of an Aggressive Room

I’m glad the July version of the mock was so starkly different than the June draft. I couldn’t have made my points about salary cap drafting any better than if I had written a script myself. I want to be clear that I don’t believe either method is right or wrong, but they are different and should be treated differently. You will find yourself in an aggressive room like this quite often, so knowing how to react is important. What can we take away from this draft?

Prices WILL Come Down

It’s hard to have patience when the top players are flying off the board. But when you see a price like $64 for Christian McCaffrey you must be cognizant of what is happening and resolve to stay on the sideline for a bit until things start to correct themselves. This is a tough spot to be in because you can’t let *all* the top players go before you act, but discretion is the key. Get in where you see a possible deal and get one or two players so you don’t miss out, but be careful. You want to save your money so when the prices drop you’ll be there to grab the deals. If you can avoid rostering any players while the prices are high then do it as that will press your advantage. But, you’d never leave a serpentine draft with no first-round pick so make sure you don’t sit too long. If you have to overpay for someone then that’s just a necessary evil. In general, though, you simply want to have as much patience as you can and when the prices drop out you’ll be there to capitalize.

Price Cliff

When prices start too high they will often end with a significant price cliff later in the draft. That happens because drafters don’t want to let players like Calvin Ridley or Chris Olave go too cheap so those prices (while lower in some cases because of early spending) still end up being high enough that there is simply no money left for lower-tier players. A perfect example of this was when Pat Freiermuth went for $3. While I’m not that excited about the player, I was shocked when nobody bid until I realized everyone was waiting on their favorite lower-tier tight end sleeper and they just didn’t care about Freiermuth. If they had more money they would’ve bid but it just wasn’t there. This happens in a more pronounced fashion at quarterback and tight end because the league only requires one starter, but it is nevertheless going to happen at all positions. Watch for that price cliff and try to save enough money to act when you see it.

Conclusion

If you want to see all the teams we’ve listed them for you in full below, including noting which team is mine. This room was more challenging in a lot of ways than the June room, but they both presented hurdles to overcome. In the first mock, I had to force myself to chase the top players because the room was tight. I don’t normally chase the top guys in a salary cap draft. In the second draft, I had to fight my instinct to want to jump into the fray as I watched elite players fly off the board. Both are difficult, but both are infinitely easier when you pay attention to the context and reasons for why they happen and know how to react. Hopefully, you’re learning some of that here and we can give you even more of it in August. See you in a month for the final part of our Mock Salary Cap series!