Thomas followed up a No. 6 finish in 2018 with a No. 1 finish last season, outscoring the No. 2 receiver (Chris Godwin) by nearly 70 points in half-PPR formats. Thomas is the favorite to finish No. 1 again, though the arrival of Emmanuel Sanders is likely to put a slight dent in the 185 targets that he saw last season. Since 2000, there have been 18 receivers who have seen at least 180 targets and on average, the other 17 receivers saw their targets per game drop by an average of 18% the following year. That would put Thomas’s catches back in the 120-125 range if his catch rate holds. He’s still a solid pick in the first round, but owners shouldn’t expect another 149-catch season.
Jan 03 · 7:11 PM EST