Odell Beckham caught 23-of-43 targets for 319 yards (13.9 Y/R) and three touchdowns, adding 72 yards on seven attempts and a touchdown on the ground. He finished as WR36 in half-PPR points per game before his season was cut short at seven games due to a torn ACL. Beckham is reportedly on track to return to the Browns lineup by Week 1 of the 2021 season. As a player with five seasons of 1,000+ yards, this is someone with the track record and upside to return to form. If we look closer at his volume while healthy in 2020, we see that he was being used as a prototypical alpha WR1, ranking in the Top-10 at wide receiver in every meaningful category. From Weeks 1-6, Beckham posted a 25.0% target share (10th), 33.3% red-zone target share (4th), 13.5 average target depth (10th), and 37.71% air-yard share (9th). If the Browns can maintain an increase in passing volume, Beckham has the upside to return to form as a Top-15 wide receiver.
Beckham is coming off a significant knee injury, which makes him a riskier bet at the wide receiver position. There are also several “mouths to feed” in this run-heavy offense, such as Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Rashard Higgins, David Njoku, and Harrison Bryant. This is an offense that is loaded with playmakers, so there's a definite risk that Beckham is not used at such a high rate like he was in the early stages of the 2020 season. Beckham will need to be highly efficient as a downfield threat to return WR2 fantasy value due to his run-heavy offense.
2021 Bottom Line
Beckham is among the most talented wide receivers in the NFL and is still only entering his age-29 season. The Browns' offense should be among the most prolific in the league, so Beckham will have a chance to put up gaudy touchdown totals with his high red-zone usage. Currently being drafted as WR28 (59.0 ADP) in Underdog fantasy leagues, Beckham is a boom-or-bust pick with the ceiling to ascend into the low-end WR1. He’s worth targeting, especially if you selected a high-floor target hog as your WR1.