Top 200 Value Based Rankings

Henry rushed for nearly 2,000 yards (1,921), and scored 18 total touchdowns. He should continue to defy Father Time, at least for one more season, probably more. He looked great last year, posting the highest yards after contact per attempt (2.8), the fourth-highest yards before contact per attempt (3.1) and the most broken tackles per attempt (0.13). He also posted the highest run grade (93.5) at PFF.

Irving finished RB16 on the year, so uninformed drafters may view him as a fantasy RB2, but he’s a clear, rock-solid RB1 in my book thanks to his productivity after the first month of the season. He started seeing more touches in Week 6, and from that point on, he was the fantasy RB8. He had the fourth-highest PFF rush grade in that span, and was fifth in yards after contact per attempt on the season. HC Todd Bowles told The Athletic that he “expects greatness” and that Irving’s “opportunities are likely to increase substantially.” He’s a baller and has a great future ahead of him.

He’s 25 years old, finished as the RB6 last season, and was third in touches per game (21.9). He was undervalued last year after the Rams drafted Blake Corum, and he appears to be undervalued again this season. The only thing that gives me pause about the 24-year-old Williams is his propensity to fumble the ball. He had five fumbles last year and three the year before, but in the season after the Rams drafted Corum, Williams handled a career-high 350 touches for 1,481 total yards and 16 touchdowns. Corum only averaged 3.6 yards per carry, so he didn’t do anything to justify a lead-back role in 2025.

My top quarterback target in last year’s fantasy drafts didn’t disappoint, finishing QB4 after being drafted in the QB10-QB12 range all summer. This year, he’ll have another weapon to throw to thanks to the Commanders’ trade for Deebo Samuel. The Commanders also drafted Jaylin Lane in the fourth round to shore up the team’s WR depth.

Javonte Williams is gone, so the Broncos headed into the Draft with Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime as their top two running backs. Running back was clearly the priority, and despite the J.K. Dobbins signing, Harvey is the slight favorite to lead the backfield, given the second-round draft capital the Broncos used to acquire him. He is 88th percentile or higher in Burst Score, Speed Score, and 40-yard speed (4.40) per Player Profiler. "When you look at the running skill set, it was, 'wow,' and explosive runs, all of those things," HC Sean Payton said of Harvey following the draft. "I know the question is, ‘Is he a three-down back?’" Payton said. "Well, he’s going to play on third down, but he could play on third down where the tight end is in protection opposite. There’s a lot we can do relative to really suit his strengths.” Payton went on to invoke Darren Sproles’ name, referencing how he deployed the diminutive Sproles in pass protection. (Sproles had the eighth-most PPR points from 2011 to 2013, playing for Payton. What I’m getting at is that it’s a good thing that Payton is comparing Harvey to Sproles.) As for Dobbins, he has a career 5.2 YPC–4.6 last year–and is a much better pass-blocker than Harvey, so the veteran is a threat to Harvey’s snaps on all three downs.

Mayfield rounds out the Top 6, which is not something I ever thought I’d be saying after his career began to go sideways in his fourth season. But he has finished QB5 and QB9 the last two seasons, has one of the best receiving corps–Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, Jalen McMillan, and Cade Otton–in the league, and he can run a little bit (378 yards, 3 rushing touchdowns last season). My only concern is that he’s on his third offensive coordinator in three years, but new OC Josh Grizzard was promoted from within and was the pass game coordinator last season. Mayfield should post midrange QB1 numbers once again.

Granted, it’s early, but one of the biggest values that I see on the board is Jauan Jennings, who I have ranked as a low-end WR2 with a multi-site ADP and a consensus rank of a low-end WR3/high-end WR4. Deebo Samuel is gone and Brandon Aiyuk is recovering from a torn ACL/MCL isn’t expected to play until midseason. Jennings has proven to be a rock-solid option for Brock Purdy and actually performed a bit better with Aiyuk in the lineup last season. He also outscored Aiyuk 10.8 to 7.8 in the six non-injury games they played together. In the five games that both Samuel and Aiyuk played, Jennings averaged 2.8 catches on 46 yards and zero touchdowns on 4.8 targets per game. In the 10 games that either (or both) Samuel and Aiyuk missed, Jennings averaged 6.3 catches for 75 yards and 0.6 touchdowns on 8.9 targets per game. Those are low-end WR1 numbers, folks.

Meyers finished WR31 last season, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. In 12 games without Davante Adams (due to injury and after trade), Meyers averaged 6.1 receptions for 73 yards and 0.25 touchdowns, for 12.0 (half-PPR) points per game, or low-end WR2 numbers. His 9.3 targets per game without Adams would have tied Drake London for the sixth-most in the league over the course of a full season, and he’s getting a quarterback upgrade in the form of Geno Smith. He’s a WR4 in both multi-site ADP and consensus rank, though I have him agood bit higher. Jack Bech is an interesting sleeper at WR61–Matt Harmon of Reception Perception loves him–but Meyers should still garner more targets. Fellow rookie Dont’e Thornton apparently tore up minicamp so he’s worth monitoring as well.

Njoku missed six games in 2024 and has missed 11 games in the last four years. Otherwise, he’s been a great fantasy asset in Cleveland despite some suspect quarterback play. He was the TE5 on a per-game basis in 2024 while garnering the third-most targets per game (8.8) at his position. One way or another, I expect the QB play in Cleveland to improve, and that should benefit Njoku along with everyone else.

Nix finished QB9 on the season, but after a rough start, he was the fantasy QB5 from Week 5 on. He has dual-threat ability and scored at least 16.1 fantasy points in 10 of his last 13 games. “Good” rookie quarterbacks tend to regress a bit in year two, but the Broncos added Evan Engram in free agency and two receiving weapons–second-round RB RJ Harvey and third-round WR Pat Bryant–in the Draft, and that could offset a sophomore regression.

Engram finished with 47 catches for 365 yards and one touchdown while missing eight games with hamstring and shoulder injuries. His 40.6 yards per game were the second-lowest of his career, but not far off his career average (45.6). His 5.2 receptions per game were his third-highest, so naturally his aDOT and yards per reception were relatively low. Tight ends tend to age well, and this is a great landing spot for Engram due to the Broncos' lack of proven pass-catchers and an up-and-coming quarterback, Bo Nix. (This signing is one more reason to target Nix as a rock-solid QB1.)

Every fantasy discussion about Goff has to begin with his home/away splits. From 2023 to 2024, Jared Goff’s location splits were really stark: 21.3 fantasy points per game at home versus just 13.9 per game on the road. Those splits narrowed to 21.4 vs. 17.7 last season, so over the last two seasons he has averaged 21.5 at home versus 16.1 on the road. That’s basically the difference between Baker Mayfield (21.5) and Justin Herbert (16.1) last year, so it’s still pretty stark. Goff has 10 dome games in 2025, and his final six games are indoors. Start Goff at home, and start him in favorable (shaky defense) indoor road matchups. As Marcas Grant said on our pod last summer, “he’s an inside cat.” His ADP (QB10) is higher this year, so people are starting to recognize his fantasy value.

Diggs is 31 and coming off a torn ACL that cost him half of the 2024 season. Prior to his injury, he was averaging 62.0 yards per game, his lowest average since his third season in the league, but he was still on pace for his seventh straight 1,000-yard season had he played the full 17 games. Five months after his injury, he is reportedly ahead of schedule and is on track to be ready for the start of the season, which is key for his potential fantasy value. I'm not too alarmed by his 2024 numbers since he was joining a new team (Texans) in a lesser role, but his decline from 2022 (89.3 yards per game) to 2023 (69.6) was significant. As he enters his 11th-season, he's expected to continue a fairly steep drop off per Ryan Heath's excellent Age Curves Study. The one thing working in Diggs' favor, however, is the lack of target competition in New England. Hunter Henry and Demario Douglas led the Patriots with 66 catches apiece, so Diggs should see all the targets he can handle if he can still get open and can hold off rookie Kyle Williams. Per ESPN's Open Score, Diggs was as good (83) last year as he was in 2022 (83). It doesn't hurt that he'll have the up-and-coming Drake Maye throwing the ball, either. Diggs raised some eyebrows this offseason when video leaked of him on a boat holding a bag of pink powder was leaked, so that’s a situation to monitor.

Prior to the Draft, this looked like the perfect landing spot for Harris, who has averaged 319 touches per season and has never missed a game. However, the Chargers drafted Omarion Hampton in the first round, giving him the likely edge to lead this backfield in touches. Harris’s efficiency is nothing to write home about--4.0 yards per carry, 27th (out of 46) in yards after contact per attempt, 17th in broken tackles per attempt--but he is a solid dual-threat who can carry the load if necessary.

Maye is intriguing since he averaged low-end QB1 numbers–17.7 points per game–in his nine full-ish games. The Patriots added a talented yet aging receiver in Stefon Diggs, who could serve as an adequate WR1 if his ACL recovery continues to go well. New England also added big-play receiver Kyle Williams in the third round.

Tillman’s ADP has him ranked as a WR6 and I currently have him ranked as a low-end WR4, so there’s some value here. Reports suggest that he’ll be good to go this summer after being placed on IR due to a concussion. Once Amari Cooper was traded, things opened up for Tillman, and he went on a four-game run that included 8-81 on 12 targets against the Bengals, 7-99-2 on nine targets against the Ravens, 6-75-1 on 11 targets against the Chargers, and 3-47 on eight targets against the Saints. He was the WR8 on a per-game basis and averaged the sixth-most targets in that span. One way or another, the Browns’ quarterback situation should be better, and the Browns only added Diontae Johnson to the receiver room. (I think we’re past the point where Johnson’s arrival should be looked at as a detriment to the other receivers on the team.)

Mims is an intriguing receiver going in the WR5/WR6 range. He’s entering his third season after a strong finish in 2024. From Week 11 to Week 18, he averaged 4.0 receptions for 62 yards and 0.86 touchdowns on 4.7 targets per game. He only played 33% of the snaps in that span, and he isn’t likely to keep up that touchdown production without a bump in snaps, but he deserves to play more. In that span, he had the 18th-highest PFF receiving grade and posted the highest yards per route run (4.54). If his snaps don’t increase, he’s unlikely to become a major fantasy factor, but more playing time could result in fantasy-starter type numbers. Keep an eye on third-rounder Pat Bryant this summer as his progress could impede a potential Mims’ breakout season.

Mason posted the No. 20 PFF rush grade this year, was 16th in yards after contact per attempt, and 14th in broken tackles per attempt. Prior to Christian McCaffrey's return, he averaged 18.3 carries for 95.3 yards (5.21 yards per carry) and 0.43 touchdowns. He was the fantasy RB9 in that span. After the trade to Minnesota, Mason will likely form a 1-2 punch with Aaron Jones and could eventually take over as Minnesota's lead back if/when Jones moves on.

Ertz surprisingly finished as the TE9 in his 12th NFL season, posting the most yards (654) and receptions (66) since 2021, and the most touchdowns (7) since 2018. Well past his prime, Ertz proved to be a serviceable baseline option at the position. Tight ends tend to age better than running backs or receivers, so it’s not inconceivable that Ertz has another low-end TE1 season provided he can stay relatively healthy.

Houston waa a good landing spot for Kirk given that Stefon Diggs (free agency) is gone and Tank Dell (knee injury) may not be around in 2025, though the Texans added both Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel in the second and third rounds of the Draft, respectively. Kirk averaged 65+ yards in both 2022 and 2023 before Brian Thomas drank his milkshake last season. He’s still just 28 years old, and could serve as C.J. Stroud’s WR2, though if either or both rookies emerge, Kirk’s role will shrink.

Brown appeared in five games including three playoff games, catching 14-of-28 targets for 141 yards and no touchdowns. He saw 15 targets in his first two games and just 13 in his final three (playoff) games despite his snap percentage increasing from 27%-40% in the regular season to the 65%-73% in the postseason. Interestingly, the signing comes on the heels of Xavier Worthy’s arrest for domestic assault, though it appears that Worthy won’t be charged at this time. If Worthy and Rashee Rice are healthy, and Travis Kelce is back, Brown figures to be at best the fourth option in the Kansas City passing game.

​​Brown has been sneaky productive over the last three years, especially when he sees big snaps. In his last 23 games with a snap share of at least 70%, Brown has averaged 3.5 catches for 53.1 yards and 0.26 touches. That's a 60-903-4.4 pace over a full, 17-game season. Dyami Brown has moved on, but the Commanders traded for Deebo Samuel, so Brown will be competing for WR3 targets behind Samuel and Terry McLaurin.