Top 200 Value Based Rankings

Henry rushed for nearly 2,000 yards (1,921), and scored 18 total touchdowns. He should continue to defy Father Time, at least for one more season, probably more. He looked great last year, posting the highest yards after contact per attempt (2.8), the fourth-highest yards before contact per attempt (3.1) and the most broken tackles per attempt (0.13). He also posted the highest run grade (93.5) at PFF.

Irving finished RB16 on the year, so uninformed drafters may view him as a fantasy RB2, but he’s a clear, rock-solid RB1 in my book thanks to his productivity after the first month of the season. He started seeing more touches in Week 6, and from that point on, he was the fantasy RB8. He had the fourth-highest PFF rush grade in that span, and was fifth in yards after contact per attempt on the season. HC Todd Bowles told The Athletic that he “expects greatness” and that Irving’s “opportunities are likely to increase substantially.” He’s a baller and has a great future ahead of him.

He’s 25 years old, finished as the RB6 last season, and was third in touches per game (21.9). He was undervalued last year after the Rams drafted Blake Corum, and he appears to be undervalued again this season. The only thing that gives me pause about the 24-year-old Williams is his propensity to fumble the ball. He had five fumbles last year and three the year before, but in the season after the Rams drafted Corum, Williams handled a career-high 350 touches for 1,481 total yards and 16 touchdowns. Corum only averaged 3.6 yards per carry, so he didn’t do anything to justify a lead-back role in 2025.

The three-round ADP difference between Brock Bowers and Kittle is too much, given that Kittle is coming off an overall TE1 season and will benefit from the absence of Deebo Samuel. Over the past two seasons, when Samuel has been out, Kittle has averaged 5.4-78-0.47 on 6.6 targets per game (in 17 games) versus 3.6-57-0.43 on 5.1 targets per game (in 14 games). That’s the difference between an overall TE1 season and a midrange TE1 finish. The primary concern with Kittle is probably age/durability, but he’s only missed six games in the last three seasons, and he’s posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons with 25 touchdown catches in his last three seasons.

Javonte Williams is gone, so the Broncos headed into the Draft with Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime as their top two running backs. Running back was clearly the priority, and despite the J.K. Dobbins signing, Harvey is the slight favorite to lead the backfield, given the second-round draft capital the Broncos used to acquire him. He is 88th percentile or higher in Burst Score, Speed Score, and 40-yard speed (4.40) per Player Profiler. "When you look at the running skill set, it was, 'wow,' and explosive runs, all of those things," HC Sean Payton said of Harvey following the draft. "I know the question is, ‘Is he a three-down back?’" Payton said. "Well, he’s going to play on third down, but he could play on third down where the tight end is in protection opposite. There’s a lot we can do relative to really suit his strengths.” Payton went on to invoke Darren Sproles’ name, referencing how he deployed the diminutive Sproles in pass protection. (Sproles had the eighth-most PPR points from 2011 to 2013, playing for Payton. What I’m getting at is that it’s a good thing that Payton is comparing Harvey to Sproles.) As for Dobbins, he has a career 5.2 YPC–4.6 last year–and is a much better pass-blocker than Harvey, so the veteran is a threat to Harvey’s snaps on all three downs.

Jones remains one of the most productive dual-threat running backs in the league. He racked up the seventh-most yards from scrimmage (1,546) and the eighth-most receptions (51) at his position, finishing as the fantasy RB15 on the year. His 306 touches were a career-high and it’s unlikely that the 30-year-old back will be able to hold up to that kind of workload. The Athletic’s Alec Lewis reported that the Vikings want more of a “by-committee approach” in 2025, and they traded for a solid committee back (Jordan Mason), so Jones is shaping up to be a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 type.

Granted, it’s early, but one of the biggest values that I see on the board is Jauan Jennings, who I have ranked as a low-end WR2 with a multi-site ADP and a consensus rank of a low-end WR3/high-end WR4. Deebo Samuel is gone and Brandon Aiyuk is recovering from a torn ACL/MCL isn’t expected to play until midseason. Jennings has proven to be a rock-solid option for Brock Purdy and actually performed a bit better with Aiyuk in the lineup last season. He also outscored Aiyuk 10.8 to 7.8 in the six non-injury games they played together. In the five games that both Samuel and Aiyuk played, Jennings averaged 2.8 catches on 46 yards and zero touchdowns on 4.8 targets per game. In the 10 games that either (or both) Samuel and Aiyuk missed, Jennings averaged 6.3 catches for 75 yards and 0.6 touchdowns on 8.9 targets per game. Those are low-end WR1 numbers, folks.

Meyers finished WR31 last season, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. In 12 games without Davante Adams (due to injury and after trade), Meyers averaged 6.1 receptions for 73 yards and 0.25 touchdowns, for 12.0 (half-PPR) points per game, or low-end WR2 numbers. His 9.3 targets per game without Adams would have tied Drake London for the sixth-most in the league over the course of a full season, and he’s getting a quarterback upgrade in the form of Geno Smith. He’s a WR4 in both multi-site ADP and consensus rank, though I have him agood bit higher. Jack Bech is an interesting sleeper at WR61–Matt Harmon of Reception Perception loves him–but Meyers should still garner more targets. Fellow rookie Dont’e Thornton apparently tore up minicamp so he’s worth monitoring as well.

Nix finished QB9 on the season, but after a rough start, he was the fantasy QB5 from Week 5 on. He has dual-threat ability and scored at least 16.1 fantasy points in 10 of his last 13 games. “Good” rookie quarterbacks tend to regress a bit in year two, but the Broncos added Evan Engram in free agency and two receiving weapons–second-round RB RJ Harvey and third-round WR Pat Bryant–in the Draft, and that could offset a sophomore regression.

Murray finished as the QB11 last year after a seven-game, QB26 finish the year before. (He was QB10 on a per-game basis in 2023.) Last year, he played a full season after missing 18 games in his previous three seasons. He’s a good fantasy asset thanks to his quickness, speed, and ability to run the ball. He has averaged 30+ yards rushing in four straight seasons and has 16 rushing touchdowns in that span.

The Seahawks cut Tyler Lockett and traded DK Metcalf away so they had some work to do at receiver. Kupp has ties to the area and should soak up plenty of targets playing alongside Jaxon Smith-Njigba, though both players typically line up in the slot (Smith-Njigba 83.6%, Kupp 65.3% last year). Kupp is not the type of player I'd pick to join JSN in the offense, but he can certainly teach the third-year player a thing or two. Kupp averaged 1.88 yards per route run last year, which was well off his career average (2.25), but still above average league-wide and better than JSN's mark (1.81). Kupp's arrival makes Sam Darnold more appealing as a QB2-type.

Diggs is 31 and coming off a torn ACL that cost him half of the 2024 season. Prior to his injury, he was averaging 62.0 yards per game, his lowest average since his third season in the league, but he was still on pace for his seventh straight 1,000-yard season had he played the full 17 games. Five months after his injury, he is reportedly ahead of schedule and is on track to be ready for the start of the season, which is key for his potential fantasy value. I'm not too alarmed by his 2024 numbers since he was joining a new team (Texans) in a lesser role, but his decline from 2022 (89.3 yards per game) to 2023 (69.6) was significant. As he enters his 11th-season, he's expected to continue a fairly steep drop off per Ryan Heath's excellent Age Curves Study. The one thing working in Diggs' favor, however, is the lack of target competition in New England. Hunter Henry and Demario Douglas led the Patriots with 66 catches apiece, so Diggs should see all the targets he can handle if he can still get open and can hold off rookie Kyle Williams. Per ESPN's Open Score, Diggs was as good (83) last year as he was in 2022 (83). It doesn't hurt that he'll have the up-and-coming Drake Maye throwing the ball, either. Diggs raised some eyebrows this offseason when video leaked of him on a boat holding a bag of pink powder was leaked, so that’s a situation to monitor.

Somewhat limited as a passer, Fields still projects to be a solid fantasy quarterback provided he can hold onto the starting job in New York. In six starts for the Steelers, Fields was the fantasy QB6 at the time that Russell Wilson was installed as the rest-of-season starter. In those six starts, Fields threw five touchdowns and rushed for 289 yards and another five scores. That rushing upside makes him a dangerous fantasy asset. As the Bears' starter from 2022 to 2023 (28 starts), Fields racked up the ninth-most fantasy points with the seventh-highest per-game average, so he's done it before. He'll be ranked as a low-end fantasy QB1 as long as he's projected to start for the Jets.

Every fantasy discussion about Goff has to begin with his home/away splits. From 2023 to 2024, Jared Goff’s location splits were really stark: 21.3 fantasy points per game at home versus just 13.9 per game on the road. Those splits narrowed to 21.4 vs. 17.7 last season, so over the last two seasons he has averaged 21.5 at home versus 16.1 on the road. That’s basically the difference between Baker Mayfield (21.5) and Justin Herbert (16.1) last year, so it’s still pretty stark. Goff has 10 dome games in 2025, and his final six games are indoors. Start Goff at home, and start him in favorable (shaky defense) indoor road matchups. As Marcas Grant said on our pod last summer, “he’s an inside cat.” His ADP (QB10) is higher this year, so people are starting to recognize his fantasy value.

Herbert finished as the fantasy QB13 last season after a 13-game, QB16 finish the year before. (He was QB13 on a per-game basis in 2023.) So after a pretty hot start to his career, he has settled into low-end QB1/high-end QB2 territory and he plays for Jim Harbaugh, who likes to establish the run. His 29.6 pass attempts per game last season were well off his career average of 39.1, though he set a career high in yards per attempt (7.7). Daniel Popper (The Athletic) believes that the Chargers’ passing attack “felt stunted” last year due to a lack of vertical threats; “that will not be the case this year.” The Chargers added Tre’ Harris, Oronde Gadsen, and brought 30-year-old Mike Williams back.

Maye is intriguing since he averaged low-end QB1 numbers–17.7 points per game–in his nine full-ish games. The Patriots added a talented yet aging receiver in Stefon Diggs, who could serve as an adequate WR1 if his ACL recovery continues to go well. New England also added big-play receiver Kyle Williams in the third round.

Tillman’s ADP has him ranked as a WR6 and I currently have him ranked as a low-end WR4, so there’s some value here. Reports suggest that he’ll be good to go this summer after being placed on IR due to a concussion. Once Amari Cooper was traded, things opened up for Tillman, and he went on a four-game run that included 8-81 on 12 targets against the Bengals, 7-99-2 on nine targets against the Ravens, 6-75-1 on 11 targets against the Chargers, and 3-47 on eight targets against the Saints. He was the WR8 on a per-game basis and averaged the sixth-most targets in that span. One way or another, the Browns’ quarterback situation should be better, and the Browns only added Diontae Johnson to the receiver room. (I think we’re past the point where Johnson’s arrival should be looked at as a detriment to the other receivers on the team.)

Mims is an intriguing receiver going in the WR5/WR6 range. He’s entering his third season after a strong finish in 2024. From Week 11 to Week 18, he averaged 4.0 receptions for 62 yards and 0.86 touchdowns on 4.7 targets per game. He only played 33% of the snaps in that span, and he isn’t likely to keep up that touchdown production without a bump in snaps, but he deserves to play more. In that span, he had the 18th-highest PFF receiving grade and posted the highest yards per route run (4.54). If his snaps don’t increase, he’s unlikely to become a major fantasy factor, but more playing time could result in fantasy-starter type numbers. Keep an eye on third-rounder Pat Bryant this summer as his progress could impede a potential Mims’ breakout season.

Ertz surprisingly finished as the TE9 in his 12th NFL season, posting the most yards (654) and receptions (66) since 2021, and the most touchdowns (7) since 2018. Well past his prime, Ertz proved to be a serviceable baseline option at the position. Tight ends tend to age better than running backs or receivers, so it’s not inconceivable that Ertz has another low-end TE1 season provided he can stay relatively healthy.

Working backward, Smith finished QB15, QB19, and QB6 in the last three seasons. On the plus side, he has thrown for the third-most yardage (12,226), the eighth-most touchdowns (71), and has rushed for the 10th-most yards (793) in the last three seasons combined. He also has the third-most starts (49) in that span, so his solid numbers aren’t entirely surprising. He has a great tight end in Brock Bowers and a solid secondary option in Jakobi Meyers, and the Raiders added Jack Bech and Dont’e Thornton–who tore up minicamp–in the draft. Fantasy-wise, he’ll be in the low-end QB2 mix this summer, but could surprise with a low-end QB1 season.

In 2024, Darnold was the fantasy QB9 in what was easily the best season of his career. He threw for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns, and rushed for another 212 yards and a score. With D.K. Metcalf landing in Pittsburgh and Tyler Lockett waived, the Seahawks' receiver cupboard is a little bare, though the Seahawks added Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in free agency. As it stands, without Kevin O'Connell leading the way, and diminished weapons, Darnold is shaping up to be a mid- to low-end QB2, fantasy-wise.