Top 200 Value Based Rankings

Barkley finished as the fantasy RB1 in 2024, racking up 2,005 rushing yards, 278 receiving yards, and 15 total touchdowns while averaging 21.2 half-PPR points per game. He was the engine of the Eagles’ offense, handling a massive workload with little competition for touches. With Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith still in place, the unit remains dangerous and should continue to generate scoring opportunities. Barkley’s elite volume and goal-line role make him one of the safest picks in fantasy, and if the offense takes a step forward in 2025, he has a real shot to repeat as the overall RB1.

Gibbs finished as the RB3 in half-PPR in 2024, piling up 1,412 rushing yards, 517 receiving yards, and 20 total touchdowns while averaging 18.3 fantasy points per game. In the three games that David Montgomery missed, Gibbs exploded for 30.4 fantasy points per game, but he still averaged a rock-solid 17.6 in the 14 games they played together—proof that he doesn't need a full workload to deliver elite production. The Lions will have a new playcaller in 2025 after Ben Johnson took a head coaching job, which introduces a bit of uncertainty, but the offense still projects to be one of the league’s best with Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and an elite offensive line in place. Gibbs is a high-floor, high-ceiling RB1 and a worthy first-round pick in all formats.

Henry rushed for nearly 2,000 yards (1,921), and scored 18 total touchdowns. He should continue to defy Father Time, at least for one more season, probably more. He looked great last year, posting the highest yards after contact per attempt (2.8), the fourth-highest yards before contact per attempt (3.1) and the most broken tackles per attempt (0.13). He also posted the highest run grade (93.5) at PFF.

After an injury-shortened 2023, Jefferson returned to form in 2024, finishing as the overall WR2 in both total points and per-game average. Jefferson racked up 108 receptions on 158 targets for 1,591 yards and 10 touchdowns, serving once again as the centerpiece of Kevin O’Connell’s offense. He continued to dominate efficiency metrics, finishing 7th in yards per route run among 88 qualified receivers. His route-running, separation, and body control remain elite, and the only real question mark entering 2025 is the quarterback change. J.J. McCarthy will likely face growing pains, but “In Kevin O’Connell We Trust”—this is still one of the more receiver- and quarterback-friendly systems in the league. With elite volume, proven talent, and a coaching staff that knows how to feed its alpha, Jefferson remains a top-two fantasy receiver and a safe first-round pick.

Achane followed up his electric rookie season with another strong campaign in 2024, finishing as the fantasy RB7 overall and RB11 on a per-game basis. He handled 281 touches for 1,499 total yards and 12 touchdowns, carving out a huge role in Miami’s high-powered offense. His 78 receptions on 87 targets made him one of the most valuable backs in PPR and half-PPR formats--he lead all running backs in receptions and was 10th in yards per route run (1.45) at his position. While his explosive playmaking remained a calling card, Achane's underlying rushing efficiency wasn’t elite. Among 46 running backs with at least 100 carries, he ranked 18th in yards before contact per attempt, 26th in yards after contact per attempt, and 41st in broken tackle rate. That said, Mike McDaniel continues to scheme him into space, and Achane’s game-breaking speed and pass-catching role give him one of the highest ceilings among RB1s. As long as he stays healthy, he’s a weekly difference-maker with top-five upside, especially in formats that reward receptions.

After finishing as the WR6 in his breakout rookie campaign, Nacua delivered another strong season in 2024, finishing WR23 overall but WR6 on a per-game basis. He once again proved to be a monster in advanced metrics—1st in yards per route run and 14th in YAC per reception (among 110 qualified receivers). With Cooper Kupp finally out of the picture, Davante Adams steps in, but Nacua is already entrenched as a target hog in Sean McVay’s offense. There’s continuity with Matthew Stafford under center and no major red flags in terms of usage or efficiency. Nacua should be considered a midrange WR1 with weekly top-5 upside, especially in PPR formats.

Taylor enters his age-26 season still firmly in his prime, but durability remains a concern—he’s missed 16 games over the last three years. In 2024, he played 14 games and finished as the fantasy RB14, but was RB8 on a per-game basis, racking up 1,567 total yards and 12 touchdowns on 321 touches. While he hasn’t been much of a receiving threat the last two seasons (just 1.5 catches per game), he showed pass-catching upside early in his career (76 receptions across his first two seasons), and his receiving role could grow if Daniel Jones wins the starting job. Last season, Jones targeted running backs on 13.5% of his throws compared to just 7.8% for Anthony Richardson over the past two seasons. Taylor was efficient before contact (6th out of 46 qualified backs) but struggled to create after it, ranking 36th in yards after contact per attempt and 35th in broken tackle rate. That could be a function of injury, usage, or offensive design, but it’s something to monitor. Taylor is a strong bet for 300+ touches again in 2025 and remains a midrange RB1 with top-five upside if he can stay on the field and see a bump in receiving usage.

Irving finished RB16 on the year, so uninformed drafters may view him as a fantasy RB2, but he’s a clear, rock-solid RB1 in my book thanks to his productivity after the first month of the season. He started seeing more touches in Week 6, and from that point on, he was the fantasy RB8. He had the fourth-highest PFF rush grade in that span, and was fifth in yards after contact per attempt on the season. HC Todd Bowles told The Athletic that he “expects greatness” and that Irving’s “opportunities are likely to increase substantially.” He’s a baller and has a great future ahead of him.

Bowers had a terrific rookie campaign, finishing with 112 catches for 1,194 yards and five touchdowns on a whopping 153 targets. The stars aligned early, with Davante Adams traded away and Michael Mayer missing significant time, clearing the runway for Bowers to immediately become the focal point of the Raiders’ passing attack. He handled the volume with ease, showcasing the athleticism and route-running prowess that made him a generational tight end prospect coming out of Georgia. With Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews now in the twilight of their careers, Bowers enters 2025 with a strong case to be the fantasy TE1. He offers elite volume, consistency, and a high floor typically reserved for top-tier wideouts. The arrival of Geno Smith should also provide a boost in quarterback play, potentially improving Bowers' efficiency after a solid (but not spectacular) rookie-season catch rate of 73.2%. In a thinning elite tight end landscape, Bowers stands out as a weekly advantage and should be a second-round pick in most formats. In TE-premium, he's a surefire first-rounder.

Brian Thomas Jr. turned in an excellent rookie season and was one of my favorite late-round targets (typically available in the 9th round). He vastly outperformed that ADP, finishing as the overall WR4 and WR10 on a per-game basis thanks to a 87-129-1,282-10 receiving line. He hit the ground running in Jacksonville and quickly emerged as Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target. Among 88 qualified receivers, Thomas finished 6th in yards per route run and 10th in YAC per reception—elite efficiency for any wideout, let alone a rookie. With Christian Kirk and Evan Engram both gone and Travis Hunter expected to play part-time on offense, Thomas should continue to see plenty of volume in 2025. He checks all the boxes: size, speed, route running, and now proven production. It’s wheels up from here.

Jackson was the overall QB1 last season after a QB3 finish in 2023. He was the QB5 on a per-game basis in an injury-shortened 2022, and was the QB8 on a per-game basis in an injury-shortened 2021. And that’s the only concern with Jackson–his tendency to get nicked up, though he has only missed one game in the last two seasons. All of the key pieces are back–Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, and Isaiah Likely–and the Ravens added DeAndre Hopkins to help move the chains. Jackson should have another elite season.

Working backward, Allen has finished QB2, QB1, QB2, and QB1 in the last four seasons. He’s done it with a plethora of different receivers, and he has a decent crew to throw to again this season. Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Dalton Kincaid, and Dawson Knox are all back, and the Bills added Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore to the mix. I’m expecting another high-end season for Allen.

McBride followed up his 2023 breakout with another highly productive season, catching 111 passes for 1,146 yards in Year 3. While he only scored two touchdowns—bringing his career total to just six on 292 receptions—his elite target share and efficiency keep him firmly in the top tier of fantasy tight ends. He finished third among all tight ends in yards per route run (2.14), just ahead of Brock Bowers, and continues to operate as Kyler Murray’s most trusted target in the Cardinals' passing game. Arizona still lacks serious firepower at wide receiver, which solidifies McBride’s weekly usage. While the lack of touchdowns is frustrating, he’s essentially functioning as a high-floor WR2 from the tight end slot in half- and full-PPR formats. The hope is that positive regression hits in the red zone, and if it does, he has the potential to finish as the overall TE1.

McConkey was one of the most pro-ready receivers in the 2024 class, and he backed that up with a stellar rookie campaign. A favorite of Matt Harmon during the pre-draft process, McConkey caught 91 passes for 1,346 yards and 8 touchdowns, finishing as the WR13 overall and WR20 on a per-game basis. His smooth route running and advanced feel for coverages translated immediately. His underlying metrics support the breakout: McConkey finished 4th among 88 qualified receivers in yards per route run and ranked 13th in contested catch rate despite not being a prototypical “above-the-rim” player. He was also 10th in targeted QB rating and 26th in YAC per reception, showing how efficient and quarterback-friendly he was across the board. Looking ahead to 2025, McConkey is expected to build on his strong debut, though the addition of rookie Tre Harris and the return of Mike Williams could put a ceiling on his target share. Still, with Justin Herbert at quarterback, McConkey should remain a high-floor WR2 with room for more.

Hampton was the second running back off the board in the 2025 NFL Draft, landing with the Chargers late in the first round. Historically, that’s a promising signal—since 2010, running backs drafted in the back half of the first round who played at least 14 games have averaged 234 touches for 1,160 total yards and 6.7 touchdowns as rookies. The Chargers also signed Najee Harris, so a committee could emerge, but Hampton—armed with first-round draft capital and superior athletic traits—has the inside track to lead the backfield in touches. His closest comp on Player Profiler is Jonathan Taylor, and it’s easy to see why: 4.46 speed, a 94th percentile speed score, and 91st percentile burst. He also earned the 7th-highest PFF rushing grade in this year’s class, and he showed three-down capability with 38 catches for 373 yards and two scores as a junior. With head coach Jim Harbaugh expected to continue to lean on the run game, Hampton could push for 260+ touches as a rookie. If he seizes goal-line work and maintains a passing-game role, he’ll offer midrange RB2 value right away—with room for more if Harris fades into a complementary role.

After finishing as the fantasy RB6 in 2023, Hall took a step back in 2024, ending the year as the RB18 in both total points and points per game. While the Jets’ offensive dysfunction certainly didn’t help, Hall’s rushing efficiency also left something to be desired. Among 46 qualified backs, he ranked 26th in yards before contact, 22nd in yards after contact, and 42nd in broken tackles per attempt. His PFF rushing grade (39th of 57 backs) echoed the underwhelming ground performance. What keeps Hall firmly in the fringe RB1 conversation is his elite receiving workload. Over the past two seasons, he leads all running backs in receiving yards (1,074) and ranks second in receptions (133). Even with a middling 20th-place finish in yards per route run, that volume matters—especially in PPR and half-PPR formats. If the Jets’ offense can stabilize with better quarterback play from Justin Fields, Hall has top-10 upside based on passing-game usage alone, even if the rushing efficiency doesn’t bounce back.

Wilson finally broke through in 2024, finishing as the WR10 after a WR30 campaign the year before. He managed the jump despite playing with a diminished version of Aaron Rodgers for most of the season, which makes his breakout all the more impressive. Wilson caught 96 passes for 1,242 yards and seven touchdowns on 157 targets. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception called Wilson “one of the best separators in the NFL,” and expects big things from new offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand. Harmon notes that if Engstrand brings over the design philosophy from Detroit, “Wilson’s deployment is going to get a profound and much-needed shift.” That could lead to even better efficiency, especially if new quarterback Justin Fields is able to replicate the rapport he had with D.J. Moore in Chicago (92 yards and 0.67 touchdowns per game in 12 contests with Fields). Fields may not be a prolific passer, but he's shown the ability to support a true WR1 — and Wilson certainly fits the bill.

Smith-Njigba took a massive leap in his second season, finishing as the WR8 after a modest WR46 rookie campaign. JSN seized a featured role in the Seahawks’ passing attack, posting 100 catches for 1,130 yards and six touchdowns. His efficiency was solid as well—he ranked 38th in yards per route run and 35th in YAC per reception (among 110 qualified receivers), both above average marks that reflect his route polish and ability after the catch. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are both gone, and Cooper Kupp joins the receiver room, but at this stage of his career, he doesn’t profile as the high-volume option he once was. JSN should lead the way in targets, and with Sam Darnold under center, the passing offense should remain steady. There’s enough passing volume in Klint Kubiak's system to support another high-end WR2 season—or possibly a repeat WR1 finish.

In a bit of a surprise, the Panthers signed Rico Dowdle in free agency. Last year, Dowdle and Hubbard both averaged 2.2 yards after contact per attempt, while Hubbard had the advantage in broken tackles (17.9 att/broken tackle vs. 21.4 att/broken tackle for Dowdle) and PFF rush grade (86.3 vs. 74.4). Hubbard handled 73.1% of the team's backfield carries and 60.6% of the receptions. With a healthy Dowdle in the mix, I could see those shares being closer to 65% of the carries and 50% of the receptions. That being said, Miles Sanders fared a lot better as a receiver than Hubbard did (6.2 YPR vs. 4.0 YPR) yet Hubbard nearly doubled Sanders in receptions (43 to 24), so Hubbard's backfield shares may depend mostly on his playing time versus specific roles for him and Dowdle.

Evans posted his 11th straight 1,000-yard season in 2024, finishing as the WR11 overall and WR9 on a per-game basis. He was the WR4 the year prior, and despite turning 32 in August, he’s shown virtually no signs of decline—he finished 5th among 110 qualified receivers in yards per route run. Evans continues to win with physicality, contested catch ability, and elite route nuance, and he remains the focal point of a passing attack led by a rejuvenated Baker Mayfield. While Father Time is always lurking, Evans’ continued dominance suggests he’s not ready to hand over the keys just yet. His age may scare off some drafters, but he’s been one of the most reliable fantasy receivers over the last decade. As long as he and Mayfield stay healthy, Evans should remain a weekly WR1/WR2 option in 2025.

Cooper Kupp’s 8.3 targets per game are up for grabs. Adams has seen 10+ targets per game for seven straight seasons, so it’s possible that either he or Puka Nacua may see a slightly reduced role than what they’ve been used to. Considering Adams’ age (32), he’s more likely to cede work than Nacua, who is just entering his prime target-earning years. Still, Adams’ is riding a five-year streak of at least 1,000 yards and if he can stay healthy, he’s likely to make it six with Sean McVay scheming the offense. That puts him squarely in the WR2 range.

After a WR7 finish in 2023 with Justin Fields under center, Moore took a step back last season, finishing WR21 overall and WR32 on a per-game basis as the Bears’ passing game struggled to find consistency. Despite the dip in production, Moore still flashed his big-play ability, ranking 20th in YAC per reception among 110 qualified receivers. With Keenan Allen no longer in the picture and Ben Johnson taking over the offense, Moore’s outlook is looking brighter. Johnson orchestrated one of the league’s most creative and productive passing attacks in Detroit, and if he can replicate even a portion of that success in Chicago, Moore stands to benefit. He is still the top dog in the Bears’ receiving room, and if the offensive upgrade materializes, he could return to midrange WR2 territory with WR1 upside in spike weeks.

After four straight years with 1,000+ yards and five or fewer touchdowns, McLaurin finally delivered a true breakout season--82 catches, 1,096 yards, and 13 touchdowns--finishing as the WR6 overall thanks in large part to Jayden Daniels’ impressive rookie campaign. On a per-game basis, he was the WR16, so he did benefit from playing a full slate. McLaurin finished 30th (of 112 qualifiers) in yards per route run, and while that’s not elite, it’s a solid mark for a player who has long produced despite questionable quarterback play. Turning 30 in September, McLaurin could see his target share squeezed a bit with Deebo Samuel joining the fold, but his biggest obstacle might be his contract situation. He said he’s “pretty frustrated” with the lack of progress in negotiations and that “it’s hard to see me stepping on the field” without progress towards a new deal. If things get resolved, McLaurin should slot in as a low-end WR2 with upside, assuming the offense keeps humming.

Montgomery continues to be a reliable fantasy option in Detroit’s high-powered offense, finishing as the RB17 in 2024 despite missing three games—he was the RB13 on a per-game basis. That followed a strong 2023 campaign where he finished RB14 overall and RB8 in per-game scoring. As Jahmyr Gibbs' role grew, Montgomery’s touches dipped slightly from 16.8 per game in 2023 to 15.8 in 2024, but he made up for it with a larger receiving role—jumping from 16 receptions to 36 year-over-year. Efficiency-wise, he remains a tough, physical runner: he ranked 36th in yards before contact but 15th in yards after contact and 4th in broken tackles per attempt. His 16th-place PFF rushing grade was solid, reinforcing his reputation as an above-average grinder who can get the tough yards and score touchdowns. Montgomery’s weekly upside is somewhat TD-dependent, but his consistent workload and role near the goal line make him a dependable RB2, even as Gibbs becomes the flashier fantasy asset.

LaPorta’s steep decline in targets per game (7.1 to 5.2) in his second season was surprising, as Jameson Williams (91 targets) took over as the team’s No. 2 target. LaPorta will likely settle in as a perennial top 5 fantasy tight end, but perhaps lacks the overall TE1 target upside with a healthy Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown in the mix. Among tight ends, he finished 11th in YAC/rec and 12th in yards per route run, so the efficiency was there. He finished strong, seeing at least six targets in his final eight games and was the TE5 in that span. Hopefully, we’ll look back on his early-season struggles as just a blip in his career as a fantasy producer.

Metcalf had a disappointing sixth season, posting his lowest yardage (992) since 2021 and the fewest touchdowns (5) of his career. George Pickens has moved on, so Metcalf is the lone established threat at receiver. Under OC Arthur Smith, the Steelers attempted the fourth-fewest passes and threw for the sixth-fewest yards in 2024, though Aaron Rodgers may boost the team’s pass percentage a bit. Metcalf should see all the targets he can handle, though the precisness of his route-running may eventually irk Rodgers.

Javonte Williams is gone, so the Broncos headed into the Draft with Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime as their top two running backs. Running back was clearly the priority, and despite the J.K. Dobbins signing, Harvey is the slight favorite to lead the backfield, given the second-round draft capital the Broncos used to acquire him. He is 88th percentile or higher in Burst Score, Speed Score, and 40-yard speed (4.40) per Player Profiler. "When you look at the running skill set, it was, 'wow,' and explosive runs, all of those things," HC Sean Payton said of Harvey following the draft. "I know the question is, ‘Is he a three-down back?’" Payton said. "Well, he’s going to play on third down, but he could play on third down where the tight end is in protection opposite. There’s a lot we can do relative to really suit his strengths.” Payton went on to invoke Darren Sproles’ name, referencing how he deployed the diminutive Sproles in pass protection. (Sproles had the eighth-most PPR points from 2011 to 2013, playing for Payton. What I’m getting at is that it’s a good thing that Payton is comparing Harvey to Sproles.) As for Dobbins, he has a career 5.2 YPC–4.6 last year–and is a much better pass-blocker than Harvey, so the veteran is a threat to Harvey’s snaps on all three downs.

The Patriots used the No. 38 overall pick on Henderson, and that kind of early second-round draft capital strongly suggests they view him as more than just a change-of-pace back. Since 2010, second-round running backs who played at least 14 games have averaged 188 touches for 931 total yards and 5.4 touchdowns as rookies—production well within Henderson’s range if he can carve out a consistent role. New GM Eliot Wolf called him “a three-down back and a really good complement,” which doesn’t clarify much, but it’s notable considering Rhamondre Stevenson has averaged just 3.91 yards per carry over the last two seasons. Henderson offers another gear—he ran a 4.43 with an 81st percentile speed score and 91st percentile burst score per Player Profiler—and he ranked 4th in PFF rushing grade in this year’s draft class. Chad Graff of The Athletic wrote that Henderson “might be the most exciting player for Patriots fans to watch in camp” and that “it’s frankly astounding how quickly he gets to top speed.” If that explosiveness translates early, he could quickly leapfrog Stevenson and push for lead-back duties. For now, Henderson profiles as a high-end, upside RB3 with the potential to be a weekly RB2 if he grabs the top spot in what should be an improving offense.

The Steelers spent a third-round pick on Johnson, and while rookie running backs in this range often have limited Year 1 roles, there’s room for meaningful production. Since 2010, third-round backs who played at least 14 games have averaged 145 touches for 730 total yards and 4.8 touchdowns—a useful baseline for Johnson’s 2025 outlook. He’ll split time with Jaylen Warren, who averaged 10.5 touches per game last year behind Najee Harris (17.6). How much more the Steelers are willing to put on Warren’s plate will ultimately determine Johnson’s weekly fantasy value. He’s likely to handle goal-line duties, which gives him sneaky touchdown upside in what could be a more balanced, efficient offense under offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, though Aaron Rodgers will have something to say about that. Johnson was an instinctive zone runner in college and finished 15th out of 67 backs in PFF rush grade among those with 100+ carries. He’s also a capable pass-catcher (22 receptions, 188 yards, 2 TDs as a junior) and showed more functional quickness on tape than he did in Combine testing. If he carves out 10–12 touches per game with red zone work, he could be a flex-worthy option with upside in deeper formats. If he fully assumes Harris's role, then RB2 numbers are well within reach.

After a rocky start to his career, Williams broke out in Year 3, turning 91 targets into 58 catches for 1,001 yards and seven scores in 15 games, finishing as the WR19. He was a big-play threat all year, ranking 3rd in YAC per reception and 30th in yards per route run—both strong indicators of his development as a more complete receiver. Matt Harmon noted in Reception Perception that Williams "revived what was at one point looking like a shaky career," though he still has technical refinement and off-field consistency to prove. Still, the physical tools are clearly translating. A new offensive coordinator could introduce some volatility to the Lions’ passing game, but with Williams now firmly established as a strong No. 2 behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, another top-20 finish is well within reach. He’s a high-upside WR3 pick in the middle rounds.

Mayfield rounds out the Top 6, which is not something I ever thought I’d be saying after his career began to go sideways in his fourth season. But he has finished QB5 and QB9 the last two seasons, has one of the best receiving corps–Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, Jalen McMillan, and Cade Otton–in the league, and he can run a little bit (378 yards, 3 rushing touchdowns last season). My only concern is that he’s on his third offensive coordinator in three years, but new OC Josh Grizzard was promoted from within and was the pass game coordinator last season. Mayfield should post midrange QB1 numbers once again.

Jones remains one of the most productive dual-threat running backs in the league. He racked up the seventh-most yards from scrimmage (1,546) and the eighth-most receptions (51) at his position, finishing as the fantasy RB15 on the year. His 306 touches were a career-high and it’s unlikely that the 30-year-old back will be able to hold up to that kind of workload. The Athletic’s Alec Lewis reported that the Vikings want more of a “by-committee approach” in 2025, and they traded for a solid committee back (Jordan Mason), so Jones is shaping up to be a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 type.

Ridley followed up a WR24 season with the Jaguars in 2023 by finishing WR29 with the Titans last year, a respectable but unspectacular showing given the volatility in Tennessee's offense. He now enters his second season with the team as the clear favorite for WR1 duties. Despite the additions of Tyler Lockett and Van Jefferson, Ridley faces minimal target competition, and he should benefit from the arrival of rookie quarterback Cam Ward, who brings much-needed juice to the passing game. Ridley posted an above-average 35th-place finish (among 112 qualifiers) in yards per route run and continues to be a reliable technician, though his YAC/rec numbers were middling. He’s unlikely to regain the elite form he showed in Atlanta a few years ago, but with a projected uptick in passing efficiency and volume, he’s a solid WR3 with WR2 upside in 2025 drafts.

After a WR20 finish in 2023, Pickens slipped to WR38 last season while catching passes from Justin Fields and Russell Wilson. A move to Dallas should help his fantasy value even if he plays second fiddle to CeeDee Lamb. The Cowboys may not have much of a running game, which could force them to be more pass-heavy, and Pickens has shown the ability to thrive with volume. He posted a solid 23rd-place finish in yards per route run (of 112 qualified receivers), though his YAC/rec numbers remain average, consistent with his downfield, perimeter role. Pickens likely won't see WR1 volume, but he has the talent to produce WR2 numbers in a pass-first offense, especially if Lamb were to miss any time. As a fantasy WR3 with upside, he's an intriguing target in the middle rounds.

Hockenson returned from ACL/MCL surgery in Week 9 and was a serviceable but uninspiring fantasy option the rest of the way. In 10 games played, he failed to find the end zone and averaged just 7.1 half-PPR points per game, a midrange TE2 pace. That’s a far cry from his 2023 output (95 catches for 960 yards), and it remains to be seen if he can return to that level post-injury. The good news: He plays in a strong Kevin O’Connell offense, and rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy appears ready to run the show. The volume should be there, but whether Hockenson can capitalize hinges on his ability to recapture his pre-injury explosiveness and red zone involvement. He has top-5 upside, but with a TE5 ADP, there’s not a ton of value baked in—making him a slightly risky pick for drafters hoping for a full bounce-back.

Warren took a step back in 2024, finishing as the RB40 after an RB24 campaign the year before. When the Steelers traded away Najee Harris, it looked like Warren might finally see lead-back touches—but then Pittsburgh spent a third-round pick on Kaleb Johnson, a downhill runner who could take over Harris’s early-down and goal-line role almost entirely. With Arthur Smith calling plays, this backfield looks destined for a committee. Smith has a history of deploying multiple backs, and Johnson’s size and draft capital suggest he’ll be involved right away. That likely leaves Warren in a change-of-pace and passing-down role, which still holds fantasy value—he ranked 13th in yards per route run among running backs last season and remains one of the better receiving backs in the league. Warren is a solid RB3/FLEX in PPR and half-PPR formats, but his weekly ceiling may be limited unless Johnson stumbles or gets hurt.

Andrews got off to a painfully slow start in 2024, likely due in part to a preseason car accident that may have lingered into the regular season. Through four weeks, he managed just six catches for 65 yards on nine total targets. But once the season got rolling, so did Andrews. From Week 5 on, he played at a 64-catch, 795-yard, and 14.4-touchdown pace and finished as the fantasy TE5 during that stretch—even while playing just 63% of the snaps and averaging the 20th-most targets per game. That production speaks to his elite red-zone usage and chemistry with Lamar Jackson, but there are red flags. Isaiah Likely continues to push for a larger role, and head coach John Harbaugh publicly challenged Likely to “be an All-Pro” in 2025—something that may not coexist with a high-end fantasy season for Andrews. He turns 30 in September, but tight ends tend to age well, and the fact that Andrews was sixth in yards per route run speaks to his continued production. (Though he was 41st of 44 eligible tight ends in YAC/rec, another red flag.) He remains a strong bet for low-end TE1 numbers with week-winning upside if the touchdowns hold.

The warning signs were there in 2023, and they materialized in 2024. Kelce posted career-lows in receiving yards, touchdowns, YAC per reception, and yards per route run—clear indicators that age may finally be catching up to the future Hall of Famer. Even so, Kelce still finished as the TE6 overall and was the TE8 on a per-game basis, so while the days of him lapping the field at the position may be over, he remains a viable low-end TE1. With Rashee Rice back and Xavier Worthy emerging, there’s more competition for targets than in recent years, but Kelce still plays in a high-functioning offense with Patrick Mahomes at the helm. He’s no longer a positional cheat code, but he’s a solid veteran option for those who wait until the middle rounds to draft a tight end.

Jennings was 14th in yards per route run (per PFF). Deebo Samuel is gone and Brandon Aiyuk is recovering from a torn ACL/MCL isn’t expected to play until midseason. Jennings has proven to be a rock-solid option for Brock Purdy and actually performed a bit better with Aiyuk in the lineup last season, so I’m not worried about the timing of Aiyuk’s return. He also outscored Aiyuk 10.8 to 7.8 in the six non-injury games they played together. In the five games that both Samuel and Aiyuk played, Jennings averaged 2.8 catches on 46 yards and zero touchdowns on 4.8 targets per game. In the 10 games that either (or both) Samuel and Aiyuk missed, Jennings averaged 6.3 catches for 75 yards and 0.6 touchdowns on 8.9 targets per game. Those are low-end WR1 numbers, folks. Looking at the last two seasons, when Jennings has played at least 70% of the snaps, he has averaged 5.3 catches (on 7.6 targets) for 66 yards and 0.50 touchdowns per game. That works out to 12.2 fantasy points per game, or low-end WR2 numbers. Jennings has slid down the projections this summer thanks to a nagging calf injury, but if he can get that sorted by Week 1, he should return good value at his ADP.

Tracy finished as the RB28 in 2024, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. He didn’t take over as the Giants’ lead back until Week 5, and from that point forward, he was the fantasy RB14—delivering strong RB2 value for much of the season. His speed and vision made an early impact, and he ranked 9th among 47 qualified backs in yards before contact per attempt, a credit to both his burst and the offensive line. He didn't break many tackles or generate many yards after contact, however. The cracks started to show down the stretch. From Week 12 to Week 18, Tracy averaged just 3.5 yards per carry, and while his receiving work propped up his value during that span, that role could be in jeopardy. The Giants added Cam Skattebo, a dual-threat back who trailed only Ashton Jeanty in PFF’s collegiate rushing grade and has already drawn praise as the team’s most talented receiving option out of the backfield. Tracy enters 2025 as the presumptive starter, and beat writer Jordan Raanan confirmed that it is “100%” the case, but Skattebo looms as a serious threat to his workload. Tracy is a viable RB3/FLEX for now, but his grip on the job isn’t as firm as his 2024 finish might suggest.

Godwin turned down a reported $20 million to re-sign with the Bucs. He’s recovering from a major ankle injury but is expected to make a full recovery and be ready for the 2025 season, though in July it was revealed that he underwent a second, planned surgery. At the time of his injury, Godwin was the overall fantasy WR2 through seven games after a WR33 finish in 2023. Godwin ran nearly 62% of his snaps out of the slot, which was a big jump from his 37% mark in 2023 (and certainly helped his overall fantasy production). The arrival of Emeka Egbuka (81.1% slot usage) could impact Godwin’s slot usage, but he was so effective last year that the Bucs would be wise to let him cook. Godwin is typically underappreciated in fantasy circles so given his injury and his elite production in early 2024, he should be a good value on draft day, provided that his ankle is ready to go.

Reed followed up a WR26 rookie campaign with a WR25 finish last season, continuing to produce despite modest usage in the Packers’ balanced, spread-it-around passing attack. His targets dipped from 5.9 per game to 4.4, but he became more involved in the run game (20 carries for 163 yards and a score), and his efficiency remained strong—he finished 18th in yards per route run and 10th in YAC/rec. Even with Christian Watson recovering from a torn ACL and rookie Matthew Golden stepping in, Reed's role likely won’t change much. He still only plays around 60% of the snaps since he’s not typically on the field in two-WR sets. As a result, he projects for another high-end WR3 finish with occasional spike weeks, but it’s hard to get too excited about his ceiling unless LaFleur unexpectedly features him more prominently.

Diggs is 31 and coming off a torn ACL that cost him half of the 2024 season. Prior to his injury, he was averaging 62.0 yards per game, his lowest average since his third season in the league, but he was still on pace for his seventh straight 1,000-yard season had he played the full 17 games. Five months after his injury, he is reportedly ahead of schedule and is on track to be ready for the start of the season, which is key for his potential fantasy value. I'm not too alarmed by his 2024 numbers since he was joining a new team (Texans) in a lesser role, but his decline from 2022 (89.3 yards per game) to 2023 (69.6) was significant. As he enters his 11th-season, he's expected to continue a fairly steep drop off per Ryan Heath's excellent Age Curves Study. The one thing working in Diggs' favor, however, is the lack of target competition in New England. Hunter Henry and Demario Douglas led the Patriots with 66 catches apiece, so Diggs should see all the targets he can handle if he can still get open and can hold off rookie Kyle Williams. Per ESPN's Open Score, Diggs was as good (83) last year as he was in 2022 (83). It doesn't hurt that he'll have the up-and-coming Drake Maye throwing the ball, either. Diggs raised some eyebrows this offseason when video leaked of him on a boat holding a bag of pink powder was leaked, so that’s a situation to monitor.

Prior to missing the second half of the season with a concussion, Olave had his ups and downs, gaining 80+ yards in four of his six healthy games while failing to reach 12 yards in the other two games. In those six healthy games and in 2023, Olave has averaged 5.3 receptions for 68 yards and 0.27 touchdowns, which are high-end WR2 numbers. But that was with the competent Derek Carr at quarterback–the Saints are now looking at starting rookie Tyler Shough, so Olave’s upside depends on how quickly Shough can get up to NFL speed. Olave’s concussion history also gives me pause, since he has five known concussions since 2020.

Murray finished as the QB11 last year after a seven-game, QB26 finish the year before. (He was QB10 on a per-game basis in 2023.) Last year, he played a full season after missing 18 games in his previous three seasons. He’s a good fantasy asset thanks to his quickness, speed, and ability to run the ball. He has averaged 30+ yards rushing in four straight seasons and has 16 rushing touchdowns in that span.

Engram finished with 47 catches for 365 yards and one touchdown while missing eight games with hamstring and shoulder injuries. His 40.6 yards per game were the second-lowest of his career, but not far off his career average (45.6). His 5.2 receptions per game were his third-highest, so naturally his aDOT and yards per reception were relatively low. Tight ends tend to age well, and this is a great landing spot for Engram due to the Broncos' lack of proven pass-catchers and an up-and-coming quarterback, Bo Nix. (This signing is one more reason to target Nix as a rock-solid QB1.)

Somewhat limited as a passer, Fields still projects to be a solid fantasy quarterback provided he can hold onto the starting job in New York. In six starts for the Steelers, Fields was the fantasy QB6 at the time that Russell Wilson was installed as the rest-of-season starter. In those six starts, Fields threw five touchdowns and rushed for 289 yards and another five scores. That rushing upside makes him a dangerous fantasy asset. As the Bears' starter from 2022 to 2023 (28 starts), Fields racked up the ninth-most fantasy points with the seventh-highest per-game average, so he's done it before. He'll be ranked as a low-end fantasy QB1 as long as he's projected to start for the Jets.

The Seahawks cut Tyler Lockett and traded DK Metcalf away so they had some work to do at receiver. Kupp has ties to the area and should soak up plenty of targets playing alongside Jaxon Smith-Njigba, though both players typically line up in the slot (Smith-Njigba 83.6%, Kupp 65.3% last year). Kupp is not the type of player I'd pick to join JSN in the offense, but he can certainly teach the third-year player a thing or two. Kupp averaged 1.88 yards per route run last year, which was well off his career average (2.25), but still above average league-wide and better than JSN's mark (1.81). Kupp's arrival makes Sam Darnold more appealing as a QB2-type.

Spears has shown flashes of explosiveness through his first two seasons, but the volume just hasn’t been there—he averaged 8.9 touches per game in 2023 and 9.5 in 2024, even after Derrick Henry was replaced by Tony Pollard. Despite the limited usage, Spears continues to impress on a per-touch basis, with 2.2 yards after contact per attempt and strong tackle-breaking metrics. He also finished 17th among 59 qualified backs in yards per route run, flashing legitimate receiving chops. Coaches have hinted at a more balanced approach in the backfield this season, which could open the door for Spears to carve out a larger role alongside Pollard. And with rookie quarterback Cam Ward now under center, the Titans’ offense may be more efficient and offer more scoring opportunities than in years past. As long as Pollard is healthy, Spears remains a high-end handcuff and occasional FLEX option. But if Pollard were to miss time, Spears would immediately become a plug-and-play RB2 with upside in both the run and pass game.

Trying to decipher the Jaguars’ backfield in 2024 was like reading tea leaves. Travis Etienne opened the season as the starter, averaging 14.3 touches and a healthy 4.55 YPC through the first four games. But starting in Week 4, Bigsby began to carve out a role, rushing for 90 yards against the Texans. He followed that with a breakout performance against the Colts in Week 5 (14 touches, 129 yards, 2 TDs) with Etienne active, and then dominated in Week 7 against the Patriots (26 carries, 118 yards, 2 TDs) while Etienne was sidelined with a hamstring injury. Bigsby ultimately averaged 4.6 yards per carry—nearly a full yard more than Etienne (3.7)—though Etienne maintained the passing-down role. The Jags also added Bhayshul Tuten in the fourth round of the draft, a superior athlete who adds yet another variable to this backfield. With Etienne healthy and still involved, and Tuten now in the mix, the Jaguars’ backfield could unfold in several ways. But if Bigsby earns the lion’s share of early-down work and goal-line touches, he’s a viable RB3/FLEX with RB2 upside in the right game scripts.

Dobbins bounced back in 2024, finishing as the RB23 despite playing in only 12 games. On a per-game basis, he averaged 13.9 half-PPR points, good for RB17—solid production in a year where he showed flashes of his pre-injury form. The Chargers opted not to re-sign him, and he now lands in Denver, where he'll compete in a Sean Payton offense that could lean on rookie RJ Harvey. Dobbins was a tackle-breaking machine last year, ranking 2nd (behind only Derrick Henry) in broken tackles per attempt. He also finished 7th in yards after contact per attempt, though a surprising dip in PFF’s rush grade (43rd of 57) raises some eyebrows. He added 32 receptions, but his 54th-place finish (out of 59) in yards per route run suggests limited upside in the passing game. The backfield split with Harvey remains unclear, but Dobbins has a real shot to lead this backfield early. If he wins the starting job outright, he offers RB2 value with weekly touchdown upside. At worst, he’s a high-end handcuff with standalone FLEX appeal in a potentially run-friendly system.

Goedert is entering his age-30 season, but that’s not a major concern for tight ends, who often age more gracefully than backs or receivers. The bigger issue is his health—he’s missed 15 games over the last three years. When on the field, however, he has consistently played at a low-end TE1 pace. Goedert believes that new offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo will unlock more of his game, saying, “What he sees in me in different ways that he’s going to get me the ball I’m really excited for.” There’s reason for optimism: Goedert was second among tight ends in yards per route run and sixth in YAC per reception last year, which suggests he’s been underutilized in Philly’s offense and is capable of significantly more production if the volume rises. He’s a potential value in the middle rounds for drafters willing to bet on better health and a more prominent role.

Every fantasy discussion about Goff has to begin with his home/away splits. From 2023 to 2024, Jared Goff’s location splits were really stark: 21.3 fantasy points per game at home versus just 13.9 per game on the road. Those splits narrowed to 21.4 vs. 17.7 last season, so over the last two seasons he has averaged 21.5 at home versus 16.1 on the road. That’s basically the difference between Baker Mayfield (21.5) and Justin Herbert (16.1) last year, so it’s still pretty stark. Goff has 10 dome games in 2025, and his final six games are indoors. Start Goff at home, and start him in favorable (shaky defense) indoor road matchups. As Marcas Grant said on our pod last summer, “he’s an inside cat.” His ADP (QB10) is higher this year, so people are starting to recognize his fantasy value.

Prescott finished as the fantasy QB4 in 2023, throwing for 4,516 yards and 36 touchdowns against just nine interceptions. Last year, he left a couple of games early and only played eight total games, but he was on pace for 4,638 yards and 25.8 touchdowns. Those numbers would have made him a high-end QB2 type on a per-game basis. The Cowboys attempted the eighth-most passes in 2023 and were third last year. Since last year’s OC, Brian Schottenheimer, is now the head coach, I’m not expecting a huge sea change in the team’s offensive identity, especially since the team let Rico Dowdle walk and traded for George Pickens. Prescott being available as a midrange QB2 is a good example of the solid depth of the position this season.

Coleman flashed at times during his rookie season, finishing with 32 catches on 64 targets for 578 yards and 4 touchdowns in 13 games. That was good enough for a WR67 finish overall and WR55 on a per-game basis—not terrible for a Day 2 rookie, but not enough to crack starting lineups in most leagues. Coleman’s best trait was his run-after-catch ability. He finished 6th out of 88 qualified receivers in YAC per reception, showcasing surprising elusiveness and physicality with the ball in his hands. However, the rest of his profile was underwhelming—he ranked 75th in contested catch rate and 50th in yards per route run, and struggled to separate or make plays downfield consistently. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception noted that Buffalo used Coleman as a vertical X-receiver in his rookie year and “seem to believe that’s his long-term role,” but also questioned that projection: “There is just nothing in his Reception Perception prospect or rookie year profile that indicates that he will become a high-volume consistent starter in that spot.” Coleman remains an intriguing dynasty stash, but he’ll need a significant jump in efficiency or usage to matter in redraft formats.

Shaheed was enjoying a breakout campaign as the fantasy WR20 through the first six weeks before suffering a meniscus injury that derailed his season. He should be ready for camp, but his boom-or-bust tendencies from 2024 remain a concern—he posted four games with at least 73 yards and three touchdowns, but also delivered a pair of clunkers with 11 yards or fewer. He offers added value as a threat in the running game, but the quarterback situation is murky and clearly a downgrade from last year, making it harder to trust Shaheed on a weekly basis. After finishing WR47 in 2023, he flashed a higher ceiling before the injury last year, but unless the Saints get more consistent quarterback play, he’s a volatile WR4 best suited for best ball or boom-needy lineups.

Herbert finished as the fantasy QB13 last season after a 13-game, QB16 finish the year before. (He was QB13 on a per-game basis in 2023.) So after a pretty hot start to his career, he has settled into low-end QB1/high-end QB2 territory and he plays for Jim Harbaugh, who likes to establish the run. His 29.6 pass attempts per game last season were well off his career average of 39.1, though he set a career high in yards per attempt (7.7). Daniel Popper (The Athletic) believes that the Chargers’ passing attack “felt stunted” last year due to a lack of vertical threats; “that will not be the case this year.” The Chargers added Tre’ Harris, Oronde Gadsen, and brought 30-year-old Mike Williams back.

As a rookie, Williams finished as the fantasy QB14, though he had seven games with fewer than 10 fantasy points. He ran more than expected (28.8 yards per game), and if he keeps that up while also getting a bump from the arrival of new HC Ben Johnson and his brilliant play-calling, then Williams has a good shot to get into low-end QB1 territory. He has a good receiving corps–D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, and rookies Luther Burden and Colston Loveland–though the loss of Keenan Allen may sting a bit.

The Browns doubled down at running back in the draft, selecting Quinshon Judkins in the second round and Dylan Sampson in the fourth. This doesn’t exactly come as a ringing endorsement for Jerome Ford despite his stellar 5.4 yards per carry last season. Of the two rookies, Judkins may have the superior athletic profile, but Sampson isn’t far behind—he boasts 4.51 speed and a 66th percentile burst score (per Player Profiler). More importantly, he was fifth in this year’s class in PFF rush grade, four spots ahead of Judkins. Sampson was incredibly productive in 2024, leading the SEC in rushing yards per game (114.7) and rushing touchdowns (22). He runs with urgency and decisiveness, and his resume suggests he could be more than just a change-of-pace option. Given Judkins’ off-field concerns—his July arrest could impact his availability—Sampson could have a real shot to win the starting job outright if he can overtake Ford. He’s a high-upside flier with the potential to return weekly FLEX value early and grow into an RB2 if he takes over this backfield.

Montgomery continues to be a reliable fantasy option in Detroit’s high-powered offense, finishing as the RB17 in 2024 despite missing three games—he was the RB13 on a per-game basis. That followed a strong 2023 campaign where he finished RB14 overall and RB8 in per-game scoring. As Jahmyr Gibbs' role grew, Montgomery’s touches dipped slightly from 16.8 per game in 2023 to 15.8 in 2024, but he made up for it with a larger receiving role—jumping from 16 receptions to 36 year-over-year. Efficiency-wise, he remains a tough, physical runner: he ranked 36th in yards before contact but 15th in yards after contact and 4th in broken tackles per attempt. His 16th-place PFF rushing grade was solid, reinforcing his reputation as an above-average grinder who can get the tough yards and score touchdowns. Montgomery’s weekly upside is somewhat TD-dependent, but his consistent workload and role near the goal line make him a dependable RB2, even as Gibbs becomes the flashier fantasy asset. If Gibbs were to get injured, Monty would have top-five upside.

Smith was an excellent draft value in 2024, smashing career-highs in targets (111), receptions (88), and yards (884) as a focal point of the Miami offense. He actually led the Dolphins in catches and was second in receiving yards. He finished TE4 and was the TE6 on a per-game basis. He was shaping up to be an excellent draft day value until the trade to Pittsburgh. It’s not a death knell to his fantasy value, but the lack of certainty in his role makes him a dicier TE1 bet. The good news, probably, is that he is reuniting with OC Arthur Smith, who coaxed a (pre-Miami) career-high 50-582-3 season out of Smith in Atlanta, which was good enough for a TE17 finish. But Pat Freiermuth just signed a healthy extension, and there’s a change at quarterback to Aaron Rodgers, so it’s not clear how the targets will be distributed among the Steelers’ top pass-catching options.

Benson flashed in limited work as a rookie, turning 63 carries into 291 yards (4.6 YPC) while posting above-average marks in both yards before and after contact per attempt. Though he played behind James Conner for most of the year, head coach Jonathan Gannon made waves this offseason by saying, “If (Trey Benson) takes the necessary jump from Year 1 to Year 2, I think we have two starting backs.” Gannon even referred to teams with “two '1s’,” suggesting a potential 1A/1B split with Conner in 2025. That’s big news, especially considering Conner is entering his age-30 season and the Cardinals may want to lighten his load to preserve his health. If Benson can seize a larger role, he could return weekly flex value and be a league-winner if Conner misses time. With a 12th-round ADP, Benson is one of the better late-round dart throws at the position and should be firmly on the radar of Zero RB drafters.

Now entering his age-30 season, Ekeler is at the stage of his career where durability and workload are both legitimate concerns. He’s missed eight games over the past two seasons and is a good bet to miss a few games in 2025. Still, Ekeler was efficient when on the field in 2024, averaging 9.3 touches for 61.1 total yards and 0.33 touchdowns per game. His 4.8 yards per carry was his best mark since 2018, thanks in part to an elite 3.0 yards before contact per attempt. He’s not breaking as many tackles as he used to, but his vision and burst still pop when the blocking is there. Deebo Samuel’s arrival adds another layer of competition for touches, particularly in the short-area game. Ekeler profiles as a weekly RB3 with some spike-week potential in PPR formats, but the days of him being a top-tier fantasy asset appear to be in the rearview mirror.

Tillman’s ADP has him ranked as a WR6 and I currently have him ranked as a low-end WR4, so there’s some value here. Once Amari Cooper was traded, things opened up for Tillman, and he went on a four-game run that included 8-81 on 12 targets against the Bengals, 7-99-2 on nine targets against the Ravens, 6-75-1 on 11 targets against the Chargers, and 3-47 on eight targets against the Saints. He was the WR8 on a per-game basis and averaged the sixth-most targets in that span. One way or another, the Browns’ quarterback situation should be better. Tillman is a great upside WR5/WR6 to round out the roster.

Last year, three quarterbacks drafted QB20 or later finished in the top 12: Baker Mayfield (QB21), Sam Darnold (QB31), and Bo Nix (QB23). They had a couple of things in common: 1) a strong offensive mind calling the plays, and 2) they can score fantasy points with their legs. Darnold (QB27) can run, but Klint Kubiak is not a certified offensive genius like, say, Kevin O’Connell, who coaxed a QB8 finish out of Darnold last season. That’s why I like QB19 J.J. McCarthy to meet or exceed his draft position. It’s pretty simple: In O’Connell we trust. McCarthy will run a bit and has a nice group of weapons, including Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones.

In his prime, Nick Chubb was arguably the best pure runner in football, topping 5.0 yards per carry in each of his first six seasons. His career trajectory changed after a 2023 torn MCL and damaged ACL—on the same knee he injured in 2015—and he struggled to regain form last year, averaging just 3.3 YPC on 102 carries before a fractured foot ended his season. Reports from camp have been mixed, with some noting diminished burst, while others offer more optimistic assessments. With Joe Mixon’s return from a foot injury uncertain—though the team hopes he’ll be ready for Week 1—Chubb will get the first shot at RB1 duties. Remember, Chubb was so good that he doesn’t need to be 100% of his former self to be a fantasy starter. He profiles as a two-down grinder with touchdown upside, while rookie Woody Marks should handle most of the passing-down work.

Lawrence missed half of the season due to AC joint injury and subsequent surgery. In his nine healthy games, he was the fantasy QB11, though he was the QB16 on a per-game basis since he didn’t have his bye in that span. He was the fantasy QB14 in 2023 with the QB19 per-game average, so he has settled into midrange QB2-type territory in the last couple of years after a QB8 finish in 2022. Christian Kirk and Evan Engram are gone, so Lawrence will be throwing to some new faces–Travis Hunter and Dyami Brown–along with a few familiar ones in Brian Thomas Jr. and Brenton Strange. He profiles as a mid- to low-end QB2 given the depth at the position.

Ertz surprisingly finished as the TE9 in his 12th NFL season, posting the most yards (654) and receptions (66) since 2021, and the most touchdowns (7) since 2018. Well past his prime, Ertz proved to be a serviceable baseline option at the position. Tight ends tend to age better than running backs or receivers, so it’s not inconceivable that Ertz has another low-end TE1 season provided he can stay relatively healthy.

​​The Browns used the No. 36 overall pick on Judkins, signaling their confidence that he can be a foundational piece in their post-Nick Chubb backfield. Since 2010, second-round backs who’ve played at least 14 games have averaged 188 touches for 931 total yards and 5.4 touchdowns as rookies—numbers well within reach for Judkins given the opportunity in Cleveland. With Chubb no longer on the roster, the depth chart is wide open. The Browns also drafted Dylan Sampson in the fourth round, but Judkins’ superior draft capital and athletic profile (92nd percentile speed score, 94th percentile burst score) give him the clear edge heading into camp. He was 9th in PFF’s rushing grade among this year’s rookies and is already regarded as dependable in both pass-catching and pass protection, which should earn him early-down work with potential for more. Judkins could flirt with 250+ touches as a rookie in a run-heavy scheme. He’s a high-upside RB3 with the potential to rise quickly into RB2 territory if he wins the job outright. His July arrest for domestic violence may cause him to miss time, however.

Keenan Allen is back in powder blue after a one-year detour in Chicago, where he posted 70-744-7 while setting career-lows in catch rate, receptions per game, and yards per game. The down year was likely more a reflection of Caleb Williams and the Bears’ inconsistent passing attack than a sharp decline in Allen’s game, though at 33, Allen’s game is surely declingin. Now reunited with Justin Herbert, Allen brings built-in chemistry and a proven track record in an offense where he caught 108 passes for 1,243 yards back in 2023. There may have been better landing spots from a pure target competition standpoint, especially with the team investing in rookie Tre Harris and second-year breakout candidate Ladd McConkey, who lined up in the slot on 70.2% of his snaps last year. That overlap could limit Allen's time inside, but he did play 40.3% of his snaps out wide in 2023 and could maintain a high-volume role given his versatility and connection with Herbert. Allen should settle in as a reliable WR3/4, especially in PPR formats, with upside if the offense leans more pass-heavy than expected.

Allen’s rookie year didn’t exactly move the needle—he turned 92 carries into 334 yards (3.6 YPC) and two touchdowns, while adding 19 catches for 148 yards and another score through the air. His advanced metrics backed up the surface stats: he was generally mediocre across the board, lacking the burst or tackle-breaking chops to stand out. Still, there’s reason for cautious optimism. The Jets reportedly want to model their offense after Ben Johnson’s scheme in Detroit, with Breece Hall in the Jahmyr Gibbs role and Allen handling the David Montgomery duties. If that plan sticks, Allen could find himself in a valuable early-down and goal-line role in what should be a more efficient offense in 2025. With an ADP in the RB50s, Allen offers intriguing upside if the Jets’ coaching staff follows through on their vision—and if he proves capable of handling the Montgomery role. In Hall’s lone missed game, Allen turned 15 touches into 81 total yards. He’s a worthwhile late-round flier with low-end RB2 potential if things break right.

Houston waa a good landing spot for Kirk given that Stefon Diggs (free agency) is gone and Tank Dell (knee injury) may not be around in 2025, though the Texans added both Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel in the second and third rounds of the Draft, respectively. Kirk averaged 65+ yards in both 2022 and 2023 before Brian Thomas drank his milkshake last season. He’s still just 28 years old, and could serve as C.J. Stroud’s WR2, though if either or both rookies emerge, Kirk’s role will shrink.

Tagovailoa averaged 17.2 in his 10 non-injury games, but left early and missed seven games thanks to another concussion and a late-season hip injury, so he finished as the fantasy QB20, which is actually pretty impressive considering he missed so much time. He finished QB10 in a full 2023 season, so his per-game production is typically low-end QB1. If he can stay healthy there will likely be some value to be had given his low-end QB2 ADP. That’s a big “if,” however, given that he’s missed 14 games in the last four years and could be one severe concussion away from retirement. That said, given his ADP, he could be a productive member of a quarterback-by-committee strategy.

Likely kicked off 2024 with a bang—posting a 9-111-1 line on 12 targets against the Chiefs in Week 1—but it was an inconsistent season from there. He had four games with double-digit half-PPR points but disappeared in others, a result of sporadic usage in a crowded passing attack. Despite the volatility, Likely's efficiency was impressive. He finished 7th among tight ends in yards per route run—just one spot behind Mark Andrews—and ranked 5th in yards after contact per reception (Andrews was 41st). The Ravens clearly recognize his potential; head coach John Harbaugh challenged him this offseason to “be an All-Pro.” It’s unclear how Baltimore will divvy up tight end targets with a healthy Andrews back, but Likely has shown enough to earn a bigger role. If Harbaugh follows through and the Ravens get creative with two-TE sets, Likely could flirt with low-end TE1 numbers, especially if Andrews were to miss time.

Freiermuth is being overlooked in early drafts despite a strong 2024 season where he caught 65 passes for 653 yards and seven scores, finishing as the fantasy TE10. The Steelers added Jonnu Smith in the offseason, which has seemingly spooked drafters, but new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has a history of utilizing multiple tight ends. Given the lack of depth in Pittsburgh’s receiving corps, it’s likely we’ll see plenty of “12” personnel with both Freiermuth and Smith on the field. Freiermuth has proven to be a reliable target with a nose for the end zone, something new QB Aaron Rodgers will appreciate. He’s not flashy, but he’s a solid mid-round option with weekly TE1 upside who is currently going at a TE2 discount.

Brown appeared in five games including three playoff games, catching 14-of-28 targets for 141 yards and no touchdowns. He saw 15 targets in his first two games and just 13 in his final three (playoff) games despite his snap percentage increasing from 27%-40% in the regular season to the 65%-73% in the postseason. If Worthy and Rashee Rice are healthy, and Travis Kelce is back, Brown figures to be at best the fourth option in the Kansas City passing game. Rice is likely to be suspended for a few games, and Brown’s value will get a bump while he’s out.

Penix took over for Kirk Cousins late in the season, drawing the final three starts and posting an average of 246 yards and 1.0 touchdown as a passer. He was the fantasy QB18 in that span. He doesn’t offer much as a runner, so as a pocket passer, he’ll have to be very productive to turn into a fantasy starter. Drafters peg him as a low-end QB2/high-end QB3, and I tend to agree.

Young was benched after Week 2, but when his backup, Andy Dalton, was injured late in Week 7, he got the starting job back. From that point on, he showed serious signs of competency, averaging a solid 210 yards passing and 1.5 touchdowns to go along with increased production as a runner (22 yards, 0.5 touchdowns per game). The resulting 18.0 fantasy points per game were enough to make him the QB12 from Week 8 through Week 18. Drafters are justifiably cautious–he’s being drafted as a high-end QB3–but he may hold value there if he can carry over his progress to 2025, continues to run the ball, and can vibe quickly with first-round draft pick Tetairoa McMillan.

In 2024, Darnold was the fantasy QB9 in what was easily the best season of his career. He threw for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns, and rushed for another 212 yards and a score. With D.K. Metcalf landing in Pittsburgh and Tyler Lockett waived, the Seahawks' receiver cupboard is a little bare, though the Seahawks added Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in free agency. As it stands, without Kevin O'Connell leading the way, and diminished weapons, Darnold is shaping up to be a mid- to low-end QB2, fantasy-wise.

After flashing significant upside in his second and third seasons--mainly when other Charger receivers were injured--Palmer's 2024 production was disappointing given the departures of both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Palmer failed to outproduce Quentin Johnston, who bested Palmer in receptions (55 to 39), yards (711 to 584), and touchdowns (8 to 1). In Buffalo, Palmer replaces Mack Hollins, who signed a two-year deal to join the Patriots.

The Texans backfield is seemingly up for grabs with Joe Mixon out indefinitely with a non-football foot injury, Nick Chubb has drawn mixed reviews in camp, though seems to be trending up. Dameon Pierce is also in the fold. The hot name is rookie Woody Marks, a versatile back who could sneak into a large role if things break the right way around him. He had the 20th-highest rush grade (per PFF) in this year’s draft class and caught 47 passes as a senior at USC. For what it’s worth, the Texans are still hoping to have Mixon back for Week 1, per Aaron Wilson.

Rodgers finished as the fantasy QB16 last season, though he was the QB23 on a per-game basis (14.5 points per game). In his previous full season, with the Packers, he was the fantasy QB15 with the QB23 per-game average, so he’s settled into low-end QB2-type numbers on a weekly basis. He joins a Pittsburgh team that is short on playmakers in the passing game, though the Steelers did trade for both DK Metcalf and Jonnu Smith. Pat Freiermuth, Calvin Austin III, Robert Woods, and Roman Wilson round out the pass-catchers. Rodgers doesn’t have a history with any of these guys, the Steelers’ organization, or play-caller Arthur Smith, so it’s unlikely that this all combines to anything more than what we’ve seen from him in his last two full seasons.