Expert Mock Draft Recap: 12-Team PPR (August 2022)

Aug 08, 2022
Expert Mock Draft Recap: 12-Team PPR (August 2022)

With NFL training camps underway, we are less than a month away from fantasy football drafts. Now is the time to do your homework, familiarize yourself with average draft positions (ADP), and refine your draft process. If you are here already, reading this, then you are likely ahead of your competition.

More 2022 Redraft Resources: Player Profiles | Full Season Rankings | Multi-Site ADP | Expert Mock Draft Recap: 12-Team Half-PPR (July 2022)

Part of getting ready for your actual draft is practicing drafting (aka mock drafting). This article examines a mock draft that took place on Thursday, August 4th between various fantasy football analysts. It includes a summary of the draft trends, strategies, and specific player selections to help fantasy managers prepare for their season-long drafts.

League Setup

Roster Settings: 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX(RB/WR/TE)/1K/1DST + 6 Bench Spots

Scoring: Full-PPR

Draft Participants: In Order

  1. Bo McBrayer (@Bo_McBigTime) - FantasyPros
  2. Jeff Mueller (@jmthrivept) - Dynasty League Football
  3. Morgan Colby (@MorganColby_FF) - The Fantasy Champions
  4. Nic Bodiford (@NicBodifordNFL) - 4for4
  5. Dario Offstein (@dariooffstein) - RotoUnderworld
  6. Amr Gabr (@amrgaabr) - 4for4
  7. Adam Hutchison (@TheRealAdam_H) - 4for4
  8. Kev Mahserejian (@RotoSuregon) - The Operating Room Podcast
  9. Tommy Mo (@2on1FFB) - The Undroppables
  10. Nick Sarnelli (@NickSarnelli) - Rouge Fantasy
  11. Kevin Coleman (@Daboys_22) - Football Guys
  12. Brandon Niles (@2guysbrandon) - 4for4
Mock Draft Results
Gabriel Davis
Bills DST
49ers DST
Rams DST
Ravens DST
Colts DST
Saints DST

ADP Outliers - Risers

With any fantasy football draft, you are going to have managers who reach on specific players, especially in a group like this where everyone has been tapped in all offseason. Below are players that went way ahead of their average draft position (ADP).

Breece Hall, RB - Jets

3.09-RB15 / Consensus 5.01-RB21

The first rookie RB selected in the actual NFL Draft typically gets the most buzz in fantasy drafts and that proved to be the case in this mock draft as well. Tommy from the Undroppables selected Breece Hall almost two full rounds ahead of his ADP. He had this to say after picking Hall:

“[Hall is] one of “my guys” for redraft this year. In a draft like this…getting your guys is even more imperative because they’ll be gone by the time you’re picking next. As my RB2 on the roster, it’s a relatively safe pick for me as I can bank on his upside and don’t need consistency. I also insulated him with Michael Carter in the 10th since he’s a rookie and won’t get the lion's share of the touches. And if he gets hurt Carter will step in nicely.”

Courtland Sutton vs. Jerry Jeudy, WRs- Broncos

Sutton: 4.02-WR17 / Consensus 5.08-WR21

Jeudy: 4.03-WR18 / Consensus 5.12-WR23

The arrival of Russell Wilson has certainly vaulted the Broncos’ wideouts up draft boards and their ADP continues to rise as both went ahead of the projected draft slots. Tim Patrick was not suppressing either of the Denver studs but tearing his ACL, both Sutton and Jeudy only stand to benefit. In this mock draft, Sutton and Jeudy went back to back.

Nick Sarnelli selected Jerry Jeudy, but even though he had the later pick, Nick actually prefers the former Crimson Tide wideout.

“I do prefer Jeudy over Sutton. I feel like his style of play will work well with Wilson. Similar to the connetection he had with Tyler Lockett [in Seattle].”

Kevin Coleman acknowledges that the Patrick injury could have spiked the duo’s ADP but resides firmly on Team Sutton.

“Jeudy got a bump with Patrick going down but all reports out of camp indicate Sutton is the guy. Sutton has a ton of upside in fantasy leagues.”

Rashod Bateman, WR - Ravens

5.01-WR22 / Consensus 7.08-WR34

In a few weeks, this might not be considered a reach. 5.01 is a little rich but Rashod Batemen figures to be the No. 2 pass catcher in Baltimore behind Mark Andrews. Someone in your draft will likely reach for this guy a full round ahead of his ADP, so if you want him, you might have to double it as Bo did. Drafting at the turn can also incentivize a reach or two in drafts.

Kadarius Toney, WR - Giants

8.02-WR40 / Consensus 10.05-WR48

Someone has to catch passes in New York right? One of the more popular players this past month has been Giants’ sophomore Kadarius Toney. Based on 4for4’s Underdog ADP Tracker, Toney’s ADP has jumped up over five spots (top-20 amongst WRs). A lot of Toney’s uptick has to do with training camp buzz around the arrival of Brian Daboll and his offensive scheme. It certainly factored into Kevin’s decision:

“Toney is a great value in redraft leagues and showed flashes of his ceiling last season…With Brian Daboll now in New York, look for him to scheme ways to get Toney the football.”

ADP Outliers - Fallers

What comes up must come down. Whether it be positional preferences, injuries, or recent news, every draft has a group of players who go way below their ADP. Here are notable players that went way later than they normally do.

Patrick Mahomes, QB - Chiefs

6.06-QB6 / Consensus 3.10-QB2

This likely won’t happen in most of your redraft leagues, but Patrick Mahomes was the sixth QB selected going behind other quarterbacks such as Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, and Kyler Murray. There are some that believe the departure of Tyreek Hill will hurt the Kansas City shot caller and are willing to bet on upside with QBs.

Brandon had this to say when passing over Mahomes:

“The Charges are doing everything they can to surround Herbert, while the Chiefs seem to be trusting the system. I love both but I think Herbert is slightly better. He is my QB1.”

Addtionally Kev had this to say on why he prefers Kyler Murray in 2022:

"[I have Murray ahead of Mahomes] because Kyler was QB2 overall prior to Nuk's injury and Mahomes losing his best weapon will have an effect on his fantasy numbers. Yes, Nuk is dealing with a suspension but Hollywood is a WR1 caliber receiver and adds a new dimension of speed the offense has missed."

Damien Harris, RB - Patriots

10.07-RB37 / Consensus 7.06-RB28

Another drastic fall that is unlikely to happen in your draft is Damien Harris slipping 3+ rounds past his current ADP and going one pick after Rhamondre Stevenson. However, this does shed some light on how muddy this backfield appears as we approach the start of the year. It’s cliche when talking about New England but it might be best practice to draft whichever back is going last, whether is Harris or Stevenson.

Tyler Lockett, WR - Seahawks

9.08-WR46 / Consensus 8.07-WR38

The transition from Russell Wilson to Drew Lock/Geno Smith is an obvious downgrade and as a result, it has tanked Lockett’s ADP. 4fo4’s Projections have him out-scoring the position he was selected in this mock draft, but even most will admit Lockett does not offer a lot of upside in 2022.

Christian Watson, WR - Packers

UNDRAFTED / Consensus 11.12-WR56

Christian Watson is basically going in the 12th round of drafts so depending on your league size, it is not as if he is a mandatory selection. Collectively this mock draft group said “No Thanks” when it came to drafting the Packers’ rookie. Watson is currently on the PUP with a knee injury, less than ideal for a newbie, however that might not be the only factor tanking his ADP. Fellow rookie WR Romeo Doubs seems to be all the rage. According to the aforementioned ADP tracker from 4for4, no one’s ADP has risen more than Doubs - nearly 40 spots!

Tight Ends Are Out Of Style

There were multiple TEs I could have selected for the ADP Fallers section because basically everyone with the exception of the elite few (Kelce, Andrews, Pitts, and Kittle) went much later than expected. It’s possible this roster format that required starting three WRs affected this some but it was odd to see players like Dalton Schultz and T.J. Hockenson slip into the 7th round (a full two rounds behind their ADP). When drafting, if you cannot snag one of the top players, you might be better just waiting. That is exactly what Dario Offstein did, the last person in this mock to draft his TE1.

"My approach to TE this year is to get an elite one (Kelce/Kittle), or wait it out and be prepared to stream the position in season. The tier of tight ends after Zach Ertz/Dawson Knox is relatively flat this year, so I’m willing to wait to grab someone falling within this tier. In this draft, that turned out to be Cole Kmet, who has a clear path to elite volume and is due for positive TD regression."

Zero RB

If you’re unfamiliar with “Zero RB Draft Strategy” it is essentially what it sounds like - you wait on running backs for a long time and select a few in the later rounds. This philosophy has become more popular over the past few seasons and as a result, usually, every draft has one manager who implements it. In this mock draft that was 4for4’s very own Amr Gabr who waited till the eighth round to add his first RB - Rashaad Penny. Amr breaks down his thought process below:

The reason I went zero RB is because my two RB targets for the first two rounds were CMC and Saquon Barkley but after CMC was taken I decided to go after Ja’Marr Chase and once I saw Barkley go I went with Deebo which set the rest of my board up.

Studying his team offers some insight into what your roster could look like if you elect to go this route. For a more in-depth breakdown of this approach check out the following resources:

Running Back Dead Zone

Every year there is the section of the draft where there's a clear gap in RB talent. This mock draft was reflective of consensus, which shows that the “dead zone” is Round 5 or 6. Only six RBs came off the board in these rounds and after the last one - A.J. Dillon at 6.08, nearly a whole round went by until another was taken. The early breakdown of RBs selected was such:

  • 7/12 RBs were selected in round 1.
  • 6/12 in round 2.
  • 4/12 in round 3.
  • 2/12 in round 4
  • 4/12 in round 5.

47% of the picks in Rounds 1-3 were running backs. Unless you’re planning on going Zero RB like Amr, you should be selecting at least one RB in the first two rounds or at minimum in the first three. The dead zone will yield some talent but your chances of hitting significantly decrease. Last year only 30% of RBs taken in Rounds 5-10 finished inside the top 24 (PPR).

Rookie Trends

Rookies offer a lot of excitement because, for the most part, the possibilities are endless. Taking big swings later in drafts usually means selecting rookies who have a very high ceiling. In this draft, 21 rookies were selected. Of that group, 14/21 went a full two rounds or more above their current ADP. One of Morgan Colby’s favorite picks of the draft was a rookie - Skyy Moore (2.5 rounds ahead of his 11.06 ADP). Per Morgan:

“I think my favorite pick in [the later rounds] was probably Skyy Moore. I’m typically not one to draft a rookie WR in redraft leagues but with his performance and utilization in camp, it seems he could elevate himself to WR1 on the roster. Grabbing the Chiefs WR1 at pick 8.12 is an absolute steal.”

Knowing your league mates is key. If your group is dialed into training camp, you might have to do some reaching of your own in the back half of the draft in order to secure a rook of your own.

Wrapping it up

  • Everyone values players differently, but above are some of the more notable players that went way ahead of or behind their projected positions. Familiarizing yourself with ADP trends can be helpful in deciding when to reach on a player or if you're better off just waiting.
  • Like most years, either get your TEs early or wait and stream. The “elite” tier of TEs has expanded some compared to past seasons but nevertheless, there is a clear drop-off after Kelce, Andrews, Kittle, Waller, and Pitts.
  • There are different draft strategies, one gaining more notoriety is Zero RB. Make sure you understand what your team will look like if you go this route.
  • Don’t let the RB Dead Zone get you. Know where the cliff is.
  • If you’re reaching on a player, you might want to make it a rookie because everyone else in your draft will probably be doing the same. Rookie ADPs tend to not be so rigid.
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