Hoopes There It Is: Week 17 Game Preview

Dec 24, 2025

Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Before getting to the intro topic and game previews, I just wanted to say thank you. Thank you for reading these articles each week. I sincerely hope they’ve helped you throughout the season and that you still have something to play for during championship week. And thank you to 4for4 for letting me write these insanely-long articles (about 100,000 words this season all-in), especially since this was the first year of the format.

The intro graph today covers a topic we talk about all the time: pass rate over expectation (PROE). The x-axis shows the offense’s tendencies, while the y-axis shows how opponents attack the defense. For example, opponents of the Vikings opt to run on them at the highest rate in the league (versus expectation). And what did their opponent, the Giants, do in Week 16? They passed at a rate 23.4% below expectation, as Jaxson Dart didn’t complete his first pass until the end of the 2nd quarter.

Alternatively, the Panthers have been one of the most run-heavy teams in the league this season. But against a Buccaneers’ run defense that no one runs on, the Panthers passed at a rate above expectation for only the second time since Week 3. I’ll call these out as we go through each game preview, but our ability to guess pass volume for teams on the edges of the graph is critical for start/sit decisions in the championship. Best of luck this week; let’s get to the game previews!

Cowboys at Commanders (Over/Under 50.5 points, Cowboys favored by 7.0 points)

Cowboys (28.75 Implied Points)

• This is the first of four games this week with a game total in the 50+ point range.
• Like usual, we’re trying to target players in these games, especially if we’re breaking start/sit ties.
• Dak Prescott was very good last week, hitting 0.34 EPA per play and a 4% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE).
• But this performance came in a 17-point loss to the Chargers, as the Cowboys had terrible late-down efficiency and lost a key fumble near the end of the game.
• You’ll find the Cowboys in the top-right of the intro graph, as their offense passes at a rate slightly above expectation and opposing offenses opt to attack them through the air.
• Last week, the Cowboys ended the day with 30 targets compared to 20 carries, for a +0.5% PROE.
• George Pickens led the team with nine targets, followed by seven for CeeDee Lamb, while no other player exceeded four.
• Both are must-starts given their talent, the concentration of the Cowboys’ passing attack, and the Commanders’ league-worst pass defense.
• Javonte Williams is a tougher click, partially because I don’t fully know his injury status at the time I’m writing.
• He finished last week with only one more carry than Malik Davis due to the team rotating him out more with a neck injury, and also due to Davis seeing more run during garbage time.
• If Williams avoids an injury designation this week, and the coach speak indicates he’ll get his typical workload, then he’s a fantastic start as the Commanders’ run defense is bottom-seven in efficiency, success rate, and explosive play rate allowed.

Commanders (21.75 Implied Points)

• The Commanders leaned heavily into the run last week with a -13.6% PROE.
• But that was because they lost Marcus Mariota to hand and quad injuries in the 3rd quarter.
• Mariota’s efficiency was brutal on limited volume, hitting -0.32 EPA per play with -4.7% CPOE on a high 10.6-yard aDoT.
• Josh Johnson’s -0.04 EPA per play looks ok in Mariota’s absence, but his -15.4% CPOE was awful despite an insanely-low 2.6-yard aDoT.
• I would be reluctant to play anyone on this offense if Johnson is at the helm, as the Commanders likely go run-heavy and Johnson’s aDoT nukes ceiling outcomes for the pass catchers.
• There were only 20 total targets to go around last week, and Treylon Burks jump-scared dynasty managers with five targets.
• Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel then tied for four targets each.
• Chris Rodriguez remains my preferred RB in this backfield, but I’d still rather not play any of them.
• Rodriguez had seven more carries than Jacory Croskey-Merritt last week, but only two more routes than Jeremy McNichols, as the team seems content with their gross three-man RB rotation.
• Mariota’s status is a key one to watch as the week progresses.

Lions at Vikings (O/U 43.5, DET -7.5)

Lions (25.5 Implied Points)

• The Lions hit a 7.8% PROE last week, which is well above their typical rate.
• But that made some sense because they hit only 10th-percentile rushing efficiency against the Steelers.
• Their RBs combined for only 16 yards on 11 carries.
• Jahmyr Gibbs got home for fantasy anyway because he led the team with a crazy 13 targets.
• Gibbs hit his second consecutive game with a snap rate above 80% and is a must-start, while you can’t possibly play David Montgomery.
• After Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams tied with nine targets each.
• Isaac TeSlaa and Shane Zylstra were next in line for targets, but aren’t playable as the Lions aren’t likely to have 51 team targets compared to 12 carries again this year.
• As mentioned in the intro, opponents opt to run on the Vikings at the highest rate in the league versus expectation.
• And that’s in an effort to avoid the Vikings’ elite pass defense, which is top-five in every metric that I track.
• Gibbs is going to be a lot busier this week, while St. Brown and Williams are must-starts anyway, given their talent and the concentration of the passing attack.

Vikings (18.0 Implied Points)

• J.J. McCarthy’s efficiency violently swung back last week with -0.26 EPA per play and -3.6% CPOE on a low 5.1-yard aDoT.
• That was on only 21 plays as he hurt his hand before halftime and was ruled out for the second half.
• Max Brosmer took over but only had 10 plays.
• He’s already been tabbed as the starter this week, and that nukes the ceiling outcomes for all of the skill players.
• Justin Jefferson led the team with eight targets last week, and he’s the only receiver that I’d be willing to start this week, but I’d take a hard look at my alternatives.
• Jordan Mason also got hurt last week, as he injured his ankle in the 1st quarter and didn’t return to the game.
• Aaron Jones played 37 of the 46 snaps over the rest of the game, according to PFF, and he’s a start-able option on volume alone.

Broncos at Chiefs (O/U 36.5, DEN -13.5)

Broncos (25.0 Implied Points)

• It was a below-average day for the Broncos’ offense last week against a strong Jaguars’ defense.
• Opponents pass on the Jaguars at the highest rate in the league, and the Broncos followed suit, hitting a +7.1% PROE.
• But Nix’s -0.10 EPA per play was dinged by two turnovers and an inability to convert on late downs.
• The volume was there for the receivers, as Courtland Sutton paced the team with 11 targets, followed by eight for Pat Bryant.
• Unfortunately, Bryant was carted off the field at the very end of the game and almost certainly won’t play this week with a concussion.
• Bryant’s absence makes Troy Franklin more interesting, but I worry about the game script for the WRs in this game as the Chiefs aren’t expected to do anything on offense.
• That makes RJ Harvey my preferred start on the Broncos, as we certainly see his carry number increase from last week, and he dominated the routes over both Tyler Badie and Jaleel McLaughlin.
• Harvey also played six of the seven two-minute drill snaps last week, which was the first time this season he took the majority of those snaps, according to PFF.

Chiefs (11.5 Implied Points)

• I’ll keep the Chiefs’ section short, as you shouldn’t play anyone on this team in the fantasy championship.
• Gardner Minshew was terrible on a very small sample last week and unfortunately tore his ACL in the process.
• That makes Chris Oladokun the starting QB for the week, explaining the absolutely brutal 11.5 implied points.
• If I had to start any Chief, it would be Isiah Pacheco, but again, I would take a hard look at your other options before plugging him in.
• Pacheco actually led the team with seven targets last week, with no other player earning more than three.
• And he dominated the snaps over Kareem Hunt, 33 to 11, taking 82.1% of the early-down snaps and, crucially, 50% of the goal-line snaps.
• That was his first goal-line snap since Week 6, according to PFF.
• But again, that was a lot of words to ultimately say don’t start any Chiefs.

Texans at Chargers (O/U 39.5, LAC -2.5)

Texans (18.5 Implied Points)

• It wasn’t a surprise that the Texans won last week, but it was a surprise that the score was so close against the lowly Raiders.
• As has been the case all season, the Texans were unable to run the ball efficiently.
• They ended last week with only a 4th-percentile rushing efficiency through a combination of Jawhar Jordan and Nick Chubb.
• My assumption at this point is that Woody Marks suits up this week, and he’s playable assuming the reports around his ankle injury are positive.
• This Chargers’ run defense is efficient but does allow a high rate of explosives.
• And Nico Collins would be the only confident start among the pass catchers.
• Collins paced the team with nine targets last week, while three players tied for five each.
• One of those players was Christian Kirk, who ran 22 of the team’s 36 routes, taking the dominant lead in the slot snap rotation over Jaylin Noel, who was only given six routes.
• Again, only Collins and possibly Marks, depending on his ankle injury, are playable in my view.

Chargers (21.0 Implied Points)

• Justin Herbert was absolutely on one last week, hitting a massive 0.72 EPA per play and 18.8% CPOE on a 9.3-yard aDoT.
• To me, this was a glimpse into what the team could’ve been without the injuries to their offensive line.
• Ladd McConkey led the team with six targets, but he’s tough to trust after combining for three receptions in the two games prior.
• Quentin Johnston had a fantastic game, hitting a 4/104/1 line on five targets.
• But it’s a brutal matchup for the pass game in this one, as the Texans have the most efficient pass defense in the league, with edge rushers that could wreck Herbert’s day and cornerbacks that can defend well on the outside.
• My preferred start on the team is Omarion Hampton, especially if Kimani Vidal sits in this one.
• After Vidal hurt his neck in the 4th quarter, Hampton’s role increased, and he played 12 of the final 19 snaps of the game, according to PFF.
• It’s not like the Texans’ run defense is any worse than their pass defense, but Hampton is a talented RB with a potential workload increase on a team projected to win by about three points.

Ravens at Packers (O/U 40.5, GB -2.5)

Ravens (19.0 Implied Points)

• Similar to the Commanders, the Ravens were massively run-heavy last week after losing their starting QB mid-game.
• Lamar Jackson was fantastic on a small sample last week, hitting 0.49 EPA per play and 7.7% CPOE on just 12 plays.
• Jackson is day-to-day with a back contusion, and I don’t have a good read on his status at this point in the week.
• It seems like the sportsbooks think he’s going to sit, meaning Tyler Huntley would take over once again.
• Huntley was ok on limited volume last week, hitting only 0.02 EPA per play but a fantastic 24.8% CPOE.
• If it’s Huntley at QB, I would really worry about the passing volume, especially as the Packers’ opponents have run the ball at the 3rd-highest rate in the league.
• Zay Flowers continues to dominate the low team-target total, but I wouldn’t be willing to start any other pass catchers.
• And I’d be surprised if you have fantastic options above Derrick Henry, who looked awesome last week with an 18/128/2 line in the fantasy semi-finals.
• One call-out on Henry is that Keaton Mitchell continues to eat into his early-down snaps, with Mitchell taking a season-high nine carries last week.

Packers (21.5 Implied Points)

• Just like the Ravens, I don’t know who will start at QB for the Packers this week.
• Jordan Love suffered a concussion in the 1st half last week, and my assumption is that he sits out this one.
• Malik Willis hit a fantastic 0.59 EPA per play and 20.3% CPOE on 21 plays, but he also got hurt, and his shoulder was described as “pretty sore”.
• Clayton Tune would start at QB if both Love and Willis are out, and that would nuke the ceiling outcomes for everyone on the offense.
• Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs dominated the targets last week with six each, and they’re my preferred options at WR as long as Tune isn’t playing QB.
• At RB, it will be tough to trust Josh Jacobs in the championship.
• He ultimately saw two fewer carries and five fewer snaps than Emanuel Wilson last week.
• Jacobs has been dealing with knee and ankle injuries and struggled to 36 yards on 12 carries, leading the team to play Wilson over him as the game went on.
• Wilson is absolutely playable if Jacobs sits, but again, not if it’s Tune at QB.

Seahawks at Panthers (O/U 42.5, SEA -7.5)

Seahawks (25.0 Implied Points)

• Last week was the reverse of what we’ve seen for most of the season, as the Seahawks’ passing game struggled, while their run game was hyper-efficient.
• Sam Darnold’s -0.02 EPA per play was really hurt by two interceptions and four sacks.
• He also didn’t attempt many passes down the field with a low aDoT of only 5.9 yards.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba dominated the targets with 12, AJ Barner earned five, and no other Seahawk exceeded four.
• JSN is a must-start, while Barner can be included in the vast range of TEs that we’re hoping for four receptions and a TD.
• Barner set a career high in snap rate last week, according to PFF, thanks to both game script and Elijah Arroyo’s IR stint.
• I was most disappointed by Rashid Shaheed’s role last week, as the Seahawks reversed course and gave Cooper Kupp the 12-personnel routes back.
• That led to Kupp taking 38 of the team’s 42 routes compared to only 26 for Shaheed.
• I would prefer to sit both Kupp and Shaheed in the fantasy championship.
• Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet continued to split snaps, as Walker handled two more carries but seven fewer routes.
• Walker has been my preferred option all season, and he should see a lot of volume this week.
• Teams run on the Panthers at the 8th-highest rate in the league, and the Seahawks are heavy favorites in this one.

Panthers (17.5 Implied Points)

• As mentioned in the intro, the Panthers passed at a rate above expectation for one of the first times all season last week.
• And Bryce Young had a good day, hitting 0.13 EPA per play and 6.7% CPOE.
• Any time the Panthers have sufficient passing volume, Tetairoa McMillan delivers in fantasy, with last week no exception.
• His 6/73/1 line was much-needed during the fantasy semi-finals, and he’s the only reasonable starting option in most leagues.
• It’s an incredibly difficult matchup against one of the best pass defenses in the league, but as 7.5 underdogs, the Panthers will need to pass if they are interested in winning this game.
• Jalen Coker is at least worth a look in very deep leagues, as he was second on the team with five targets last week and played three of nine snaps in 12 personnel.
• Those were his first snaps in 2-WR sets since Week 11, according to PFF.
• It looks like the RB split has settled a bit, as Rico Dowdle took the majority of early-down snaps, while Chuba Hubbard took most of the third-down snaps.
• Dowdle ultimately took three more carries and ran five more routes than Hubbard, and is my preferred option among the two.
• But the Seahawks have the best run defense in the league, meaning we’ll need Dowdle to be involved in the pass game, like he was last week, in order to secure a floor in fantasy.

Steelers at Browns (O/U 33.5, PIT -3.5)

Steelers (18.5 Implied Points)

• Not ideal when the team that is expected to win the game is only projected for 18.5 points.
• The Steelers’ run game won them the game in Week 16, hitting 99th-percentile efficiency.
• Jaylen Warren ended the day with a 14/143/2 line on the ground against an average Lions’ run defense.
• Meanwhile, Kenny Gainwell was 2nd on the team with six targets and turned that into a 5/78/1 receiving line.
• And now DK Metcalf is suspended for this one because of an altercation with a fan, meaning Gainwell and Warren are the only skill players I’m especially interested in starting.
• The season-long stats for this Browns’ run defense are fantastic, but they’ve been exploitable in recent weeks, especially against James Cook last week.

Browns (15.0 Implied Points)

• The Browns were able to keep last week’s game against the Bills close thanks to their run game and defense.
• They ended the day with 79th-percentile rushing efficiency against one of the worst run defenses in the league.
• Unfortunately, Quinshon Judkins suffered a season-ending injury in the process, with Raheim Sanders and Trayveon Williams splitting the snaps after Judkins left.
• Dylan Sampson is at least worth looking at if he’s back from his hand and calf injuries this week, but only in full-PPR leagues given the team’s 15 implied points.
• Harold Fannin is clearly the best option from the Browns, though.
• Fannin again led the team in targets last week, and scored both a receiving and a rushing TD.
• He keeps finding a way to get home for us in fantasy and I’d start him up again this week.

Patriots at Jets (O/U 42.5, NE -13.5)

Patriots (28.0 Implied Points)

• It was another really strong game for Drake Maye in a win over the Ravens, hitting 0.32 EPA per play with 12.3% CPOE on a high 10.7-yard aDoT.
• Maye is now up to 2nd in EPA per play among qualifying QBs this season, which is all the more impressive because the Patriots lead the league in air yards per attempt.
• That means Maye is delivering that efficiency by passing the ball down the field, rather than relying on receiver yards after the catch.
• It’s still very hard to trust any pass catcher in fantasy, though, as Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins led the team with 10 and nine targets, respectively.
• Diggs combined for 11 targets in the three prior games, while Hollins frankly just isn’t very good.
• At RB, TreVeyon Henderson unfortunately suffered a concussion in the 2nd quarter last week.
• My assumption is that he sits this week, making Rhamondre Stevenson a strong option for the fantasy championship.
• Stevenson played 100% of the Patriots’ offensive snaps after the Henderson injury, according to PFF.
• There should be plenty of rushing volume as 13.5-point favorites, and this Jets’ run defense is strong in success rate, but ultimately gives up a lot of explosive runs.

Jets (14.5 Implied Points)

• The Jets join a few other teams this week where I don’t see the point of starting any of their players in fantasy.
• They’re very clearly tanking by trotting Brady Cook out there.
• They hit 2nd-percentile passing efficiency last week, with Cook managing -0.55 EPA per play and -11.8% CPOE despite an insanely-low 4.7-yard aDoT.
• You can’t start any receivers in that environment.
• Breece Hall at least played 71.2% of the snaps before garbage time, according to PFF.
• But his TD opportunities are limited on an offense barely projected to score 14 points, and there is a clear risk of him sitting during garbage time again this week.

Cardinals at Bengals (O/U 53.5, CIN -7.0)

Cardinals (23.25 Implied Points)

• This is the second of four games with a game total around 50 points.
• Last week was really disappointing for the Cardinals in fantasy, mostly because of their PROE.
• The one thing we could consistently trust with this team is that they would let Jacoby Brissett sling it, but they hit -11.7% PROE last week.
• We’ll need that to turn back around this week in order for the pass catchers to hit their ceiling.
• And Trey McBride could *really* hit a ceiling this week.
• The Bengals’ defense has been orders of magnitude worse than any other team at stopping TE TDs.
• And now they face a top-three real-world TE talent in McBride.
• I’ve been saying it for a few months that McBride might be a player you need to win a fantasy championship; here’s hoping that comes to fruition this week.
• Elijah Higgins surprisingly earned seven targets last week, four more than both Marvin Harrison Jr and Michael Wilson.
• I wouldn’t chase that this week because he more than doubled his previous career-high in receiving yards.
• Both Harrison and Wilson are startable with the hope for a massive amount of pass volume, especially since we should see Harrison’s route rate jump back up from the 60.6% we saw last week.
• The Cardinals’ rushing attack vs the Bengals’ run defense is the final coughing baby vs coughing baby matchup of the season!
• The Cardinals are bottom-six in rushing efficiency, success rate, and explosive rate, while the Bengals’ defense is even worse, ranking in the bottom-five in all of those categories.
• Michael Carter didn’t do much for us last week, but I’d be willing to start him again this week given the matchup and game total.
• He ultimately took six more carries and ran seven more routes than Emari Demercado last week.

Bengals (30.25 Implied Points)

• The Bengals have the highest implied-point total of the week, so we want to jam as many pieces from this team into our lineups as possible.
• Joe Burrow was fantastic last week, hitting 0.63 EPA per play with 15.8% CPOE on a low 5.7-yard aDoT.
• Ja’Marr Chase dominated the targets with 11, with Mike Gesicki and Chase Brown tying for 2nd-place with four each.
• I don’t need to tell you to start Chase, while Higgins is also a must-start despite the disappointing Week 16.
• Higgins was subbed out for run plays, and in garbage time, given it was his first week back from a concussion.
• Gesicki can be included in the pile of TEs that we’re hoping for four receptions and a TD, which is almost exactly what he gave us last week.
• My guess is that a lot of you reading this article have Brown because his three-TD day was crucial in the fantasy semi-finals.
• He’s a must-start, especially because he’s earned at least four targets in each of his last seven games.
• But Samaje Perine remains a thorn in his side, playing 43.6% of the offensive snaps before garbage time last week, according to PFF.
• That makes Perine a FLEX option in deep leagues, with the hope he gets a TD like he did last week.
• Again, I would break ties toward Bengals players, because their TD odds are the highest of the week against a terrible Cardinals’ defense.

Buccaneers at Dolphins (O/U 46.5, TB -5.5)

Buccaneers (26.0 Implied Points)

• The Buccaneers were massively run-heavy last week in a game they ultimately lost to the Panthers.
• Baker Mayfield had an above-average game with 0.16 EPA per play and 1.4% CPOE.
• Mike Evans paced the team with nine targets, while Chris Godwin was second with six.
• Evans is my strong preference among the WRs for the fantasy championship, while Godwin is also startable but best viewed as a floor option.
• Emeka Egbuka has to be left on benches because he ran only 15 of the team’s 30 routes last week, good enough for 4th among WRs.
• Bucky Irving remains start-able, but he faces strong headwinds from the Buccaneers’ coaching staff.
• Irving led the team with 19 carries, but Sean Tucker once again took a majority of the goal-line snaps, which nukes Irving’s TD upside.
• And then Irving split the routes with Rachaad White, again nuking his receiving upside.
• We’ve seen the worst-case scenario in two consecutive weeks, as Irving hasn’t scored and totaled just one reception over those games.
• We should see plenty of carries between the 20s for Irving, but TDs and receptions win us fantasy championships, and I question the ceiling for either in Irving’s current role.

Dolphins (20.5 Implied Points)

• The Dolphins leaned heavily into the run last week, which wasn’t a surprise given they started Quinn Ewers at QB.
• Ewers was passable, hitting -0.01 EPA per play and 1.6% CPOE on an 8.7-yard aDoT.
• Jaylen Waddle is startable after he led the team with nine targets last week, but we have to temper our expectations given the QB situation.
• Darren Waller turned his five targets into a 3/40/0 line, making him a tough click in the most important fantasy week of the season.
• De’Von Achane remains my favorite Dolphin, but we’ll need the Dolphins to keep the game close, as Achane lost a ton of work in garbage time last week.
• I’d expect most of Achane’s success to come via the air this week, as teams pass on the Buccaneers at the 3rd-highest rate in the league to avoid their elite run defense.

Jaguars at Colts (O/U 47.5, JAX -6.5)

Jaguars (27.0 Implied Points)

• The Jaguars have leaned on Trevor Lawrence recently, and it’s worked.
• Their 7.8% PROE last week boosts them up to 7th on the season.
• And Lawrence delivered 0.31 EPA per play and 5.5% CPOE on a 7.8-yard aDoT last week.
• Parker Washington actually led the team with nine targets last week, but he’s tough to trust after combining for six total targets in his prior two games.
• I think that was more matchup-specific, with Patrick Surtain tasked with stopping Brian Thomas Jr.
• Despite that, it’s still tough to trust Thomas in the fantasy championships after posting a 2/18/0 line in the semi-finals.
• Jakobi Meyers and Brenton Strange each saw seven targets last week, and they’re my preferred options in fantasy this week among the pass catchers.
• And then Travis Etienne is a must-start after dominating the RB carries and routes last week.
• He fully absorbed Bhayshul Tuten’s workload, taking 95.3% of the early-down snaps and 100% of the short-yardage snaps last week, according to PFF.
• It doesn’t hurt that he’s scored six TDs over his last three games.

Colts (20.5 Implied Points)

• After two weeks, I think we have a decent read on what the Colts look like with Philip Rivers at the helm.
• It’s an offense with a good success rate but below-average efficiency, with Rivers providing a floor but limited ceiling.
• Rivers actually attempted some deep passes last week, finishing with a 9.6-yard aDoT, but they rarely had a chance of being caught.
• Josh Downs and Tyler Warren paced the team in targets, and they are my preferred options among the pass catchers, given they both operate closer to the line of scrimmage.
• Downs ran 33 of the team’s 38 routes, which is a really high route rate for him.
• And that’s because the Colts used a lot more 11-personnel than usual, including 29 of their 32 snaps in the 1st half, according to PFF.
• If that 11-personnel usage was gameplan-specific, then there is a risk that Downs’ routes come way down this week.
• But having Downs on the field with Rivers at QB makes too much sense for them to go back on it, in my opinion.
• It would be hard to sit Jonathan Taylor, and you’d have to have another fantastic option in order to do so, but we need to temper our expectations.
• Taylor hasn’t had a 100-yard rushing day since his 244-yard explosion in Week 10.
• But he dominates the RB work and has had a receiving floor with Rivers at QB.
• It’s a brutal matchup, though, against a Jaguars’ run defense that is 2nd in both efficiency and success rate allowed.
• That’s the reason why opponents pass on the Jaguars at the highest rate in the league.

Saints at Titans (O/U 39.5, NO -2.5)

Saints (21.0 Implied Points)

• The Saints thumbed their nose at the rest of the league and went massively pass-heavy last week with a +13.1% PROE.
• And Tyler Shough was ok in the process, hitting 0.03 EPA per play and -1.5% CPOE.
• Shough has exceeded my expectations this season, playing the Saints out of position to draft his replacement.
• With that PROE, the Saints had a massive 47 team targets, with a whopping 16 of them going in Chris Olave’s direction.
• Olave turned those targets into a 10/148/2 line, helping to push his fantasy managers into the championship.
• Juwan Johnson earned nine targets last week, which is less impressive when you look at it as a target share.
• Johnson is also in that vast bucket of floor TEs, with better odds than most for receptions but worse odds for TDs.
• As reluctant as I am to say this, you can at least look at Taysom Hill if you’re desperate.
• He was essentially the starting RB last week, taking 12 carries compared to five each for Audric Estime and Evan Hull.
• He was also third on the team in targets and threw a TD pass.
• Hill’s floor is literally below zero, because he ended Week 14 with -1 rushing yards, but he seems to be the Saints’ rushing choice in an RB room decimated by injuries.

Titans (18.5 Implied Points)

• It’s a bad sign for the league that the Titans are a tier above the worst offenses this week.
• Cam Ward was good last week, hitting 0.16 EPA per play and 10.4% CPOE on a low 5.8-yard aDoT.
• That aDoT means most of Ward’s value was through receiver yards after the catch, rather than air yards, but it’s nice to see Ward hit a reasonably positive EPA mark again.
• I think he’s flashed enough on a team devoid of talent that Titans’ fans can be excited about him once the environment improves.
• I’ve said for months that I’d prefer not to start any Titans in fantasy, and that stance hasn’t changed.
• Chig Okonkwo led the team with eight targets last week, but that was his first time he topped 40 receiving yards since Week 11, and it was his first TD of the season.
• Tony Pollard ran for 102 yards on 21 carries, but didn’t score or see a target, which means he hurt your starting lineup.
• Tyjae Spears had a great day, getting a rushing TD and five receptions, but that was his first double-digit PPR game since Week 8.

Giants at Raiders (O/U 41.5, LV -1.5)

Giants (20.0 Implied Points)

• As mentioned in the intro, the Giants went into their Neolithic era last week, hitting -23.4% PROE and barely managing to complete a pass in the 1st half.
• Brian Flores claimed another rookie QB victim, as Jaxson Dart was awful.
• Dart hit -0.38 EPA per play with -17.3% CPOE on a 6.5-yard aDoT.
• The team only had 11 total targets; for context, seven players had at least 11 targets by themselves last week.
• It’s virtually impossible for pass catchers to get home in fantasy in that environment.
• Wan’Dale Robinson led the team with four targets, while no one else earned more than two.
• Luckily for us, the Giants don’t play the Vikings every week, and this Raiders’ pass defense is bottom-eight in efficiency, success rate, and CPOE allowed.
• Robinson is my favorite play among the WRs as a volume-dependent PPR start.
• And Tyrone Tracy is the clear RB choice, taking five more carries and two more routes than Devin Singletary last week.

Raiders (21.5 Implied Points)

• The Raiders leaned heavily into the run against the Texans and were able to keep the game close despite a very poor 36.8% success rate.
• They were able to overcome that success rate through big plays, including a 60-yard TD reception to Ashton Jeanty.
• Geno Smith’s 0.09 EPA per play was ok and was harmed a ton by a pick-six that cost him 8.0 expected points.
• Brock Bowers and Tre Tucker led the team with five targets each, with Bowers the only pass catcher I want to start this week.
• And Jeanty remains startable, especially after the big-play potential he flashed last week.
• He continued to dominate the RB work, leaving only four total snaps to Raheem Mostert.
• And the Giants have the worst run defense in the league, ranking dead-last in efficiency, success rate, and explosive run rate allowed.

Eagles at Bills (O/U 43.5, BUF -1.5)

Eagles (21.0 Implied Points)

• The Eagles’ offense was fantastic in all phases against a terrible Commanders’ defense last week.
• They hit 88th-percentile passing efficiency and 97th-percentile rushing efficiency, overcoming some fluky special teams plays like missed field goals and a kickoff fumble.
• AJ Brown paced the team with 12 targets, and his 95 receiving yards accounted for more than half of the team total.
• DeVonta Smith earned eight targets, while no other Eagle exceeded three.
• Only Brown and Smith earned targets in the 1st half.
• The last time that a team targeted only two receivers in an entire first half was this same Eagles team against this same Commanders’ defense about a year ago, according to PFF.
• Both are must-starts given the concentration of the offense, while Dallas Goedert is certainly startable given his role around the goal-line.
• Saquon Barkley also had a great game, earning a 21/132/1 line on the ground, and now he gets to face an atrocious Bills’ run defense.
• He’s a must-start, but is losing 3rd-down snaps and potential passing volume to Will Shipley.
• The biggest concern is that the Eagles don’t have much to play for at this point in the season.
• They’ve won the division title but can’t earn the bye.
• I’ll be keeping an eye out for any reports about limiting playing time for the Eagles’ key players.

Bills (22.5 Implied Points)

• Last week was rough for Josh Allen fantasy managers, as he had his worst game since his rookie season in the fantasy semi-finals.
• Allen’s -0.22 EPA per play was really dinged by late down failures, as the Bills converted only two of their 10 3rd and 4th down attempts.
• And they were really conservative in their approach, ending the day with 18 team targets compared to 27 carries.
• To their credit, the run game was fantastic, hitting 99th-percentile efficiency.
• It felt like the Browns had no chance to stop James Cook once the Bills entered the red zone.
• You’re starting Josh Allen if we get good news about his ankle injury, and you don’t also roster the likes of Drake Maye or Joe Burrow.
• It’s hard to recommend any pass catcher on this team, given their lack of talent and rotation for playing time.
• Khalil Shakir led the team with five targets last week, but he ran only 14 of the team’s 23 routes, while no one else exceeded two targets.
• And this Eagles’ pass defense is fantastic at limiting completions, with opponents opting to run on them at the 10th-highest rate in the league.

Bears at 49ers (O/U 52.5, SF -3.0)

Bears (24.75 Implied Points)

• The third of four 50-point game totals here.
• The Bears leaned into the run with a -7.6% PROE last week, which wasn’t a surprise given how they’ve played this season.
• Caleb Williams had a great game, though, hitting 0.24 EPA per play and 2.1% CPOE on a high 9.7-yard aDoT.
• The Bears played better than their success rate suggested, thanks to explosive passes, with the Bears now 7th in explosive pass rate and 8th in explosive run rate on the season.
• With both Rome Odunze and Luther Burden out last week, DJ Moore led the team with seven targets, followed by five for both Olamide Zaccheaus and Colston Loveland.
• I don’t know the status of either Odunze or Burden at this point, but my assumption is that both sit again this week.
• If that’s the case, then Moore feels like a must-start, while Loveland is absolutely start-able.
• The 49ers’ pass defense does a good job limiting explosive plays, but is otherwise inefficient and unable to get to the quarterback.
• D’Andre Swift remains my preferred option in the backfield, taking four more carries and six more routes than Kyle Monangai last week.
• The 49ers are 2nd-worst in the league at giving up successful runs, while the Bears’ offense is 2nd-best in that stat.

49ers (27.75 Implied Points)

• The 49ers did whatever they wanted on offense last week, hitting 98th-percentile passing efficiency and 96th-percentile rushing efficiency.
• Brock Purdy was fantastic, hitting 0.61 EPA per play with 12.4% CPOE on a 9.5-yard aDoT.
• Purdy now leads the league in EPA per play if you lower the qualifying number of plays.
• George Kittle looked unstoppable in the game, tying Christian McCaffrey for the team lead in targets with eight on only 21 routes.
• Unfortunately, Kittle injured his ankle in the 3rd quarter and didn’t return to the game.
• Kittle is a must-start if his ankle injury isn’t serious, but I don’t know that at this point in the week.
• I don’t need to tell you to start CMC, while Jauan Jennings is also a must-start, especially if both Kittle and Ricky Pearsall sit.
• Jennings has scored in six of his last seven games, and now faces a Bears’ pass defense that allows the 2nd-highest rate of explosive plays in the league.

Rams at Falcons (O/U 49.5, LAR -7.5)

Rams (28.5 Implied Points)

• Our final game with a point total of around 50 points.
• Unfortunately, the only must-start skill players in this matchup are Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams, assuming that Davante Adams sits again.
• I’d bet a lot of you reading this have Puka Nacua on your fantasy teams, as he we nuclear in the fantasy semi-finals with a 12/225/2 line on 16 targets.
• He’s going to determine a lot of fantasy championships since he plays on Monday night.
• Konata Mumpfield was actually second on the team with seven targets in Adams’ absence, but he’s not someone I’m chasing in the fantasy championship.
• It was super impressive that he earned seven targets, especially since he only ran 26 of the team’s 51 routes, but that route limitation makes him a scary start.
• He didn’t play that much because the Rams used 13-personnel on a whopping 57 snaps, according to PFF.
• Colby Parkinson and Davis Allen tied for third in targets, but Parkinson saw his lowest reception and yardage totals since Week 11 as soon as fantasy managers started to trust him.
• Meanwhile, it was Terrance Ferguson, not Parkinson, who scored a TD among the TEs.
• The insane 13-personnel usage makes starting any WR besides Nacua tough, while the specific TE that will hit in fantasy seems impossible to nail down.
• Williams expanded his lead over Blake Corum last week, taking nine more carries and a massive 26 more routes.
• They mostly rotated drives again, but Williams cut in on longer-Corum drives, while also taking the final drive of the 1st half and the first drive of the 2nd half, according to PFF.
• Williams is a must-start against a poor Falcons’ run defense.

Falcons (21.0 Implied Points)

• What’s nice about the Falcons’ offense is that we know exactly who to start in fantasy.
• Bijan Robinson is a must-start, but you didn’t need me to tell you that.
• He split the carries with Tyler Allgeier last week but ran 26 more routes, ultimately leading the team with 10 targets.
• The production wasn’t there for Drake London in his first game back from injury, but he ran 30 of the team’s 36 routes and earned eight targets.
• Better days are ahead for London, even in a very tough matchup against a great Rams’ pass defense.
• And Kyle Pitts remains start-able even with London back after earning eight targets last week with London back in the lineup.