Super Bowl 60 In-Depth Breakdown, Picks, Predictions, and Odds

This is my 12th year writing this article, and I have to say, this one may be one of the trickiest. Part of my routine while researching for this has been balancing the stats, data, and film, along with players who have the ability to outperform in key moments. See Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. Oftentimes, by most metrics, their team is materially worse than their opponents. Sometimes that simply doesn’t matter because Mahomes and Brady are/were that good. Other times, it definitely does (see the Eagles game last year).

The push and pull this year is actually almost the opposite. Both teams have been fantastic, with Drake Maye making a run at the MVP in his second season. However, there are two relatively unquantifiable parts of this game I’ll touch on that I’m still struggling with.

With that being said, my goal here is to provide as much actionable data for how each team will perform. I try not to live in the world of projecting efficiencies for what a team should do, but rather focus on what they will do. For example, team 1 is really good at x and team 2 is bad at defending at x, therefore team 1 will run MORE of what they are good at. Sometimes that pans out, but getting inside the head of coaches schematically is tough, and if I/we can do it from the comfort of our homes with a couple of data subscriptions, I would hope two well-run teams in the Pats and Seahawks are aware of macro-trends as well.

This is just my deep dive into the game. If you want all of my best bets, you can find them here. I truly think we provide the best mix of standard props (yardage, rec o/u’s) along with more niche props in the industry. Within the last few years, I released bets on completion rate o/u, passer rating, kick return yards, shotgun snaps, longest field goal, team first catch, and more. Find my official bets here: Super Bowl 60 NFL Player Props.

Super Bowl 60 Breakdown

When the Patriots Have the Ball

The Patriots offense finished the regular season as one of the most efficient units in football, ranking 1st in EPA per play and 4th in success rate. Including the playoffs, those numbers dip to 4th in EPA and 10th in success rate, but the level of competition they’ve faced needs to be accounted for.

New England has run through a defensive gauntlet in the playoffs: the Chargers, Texans, Broncos, and now the Seahawks. Denver and Houston finished 2nd and 3rd in defensive DVOA, while the Chargers ranked 8th. Seattle represents the toughest test yet, entering the Super Bowl 1st in defensive DVOA, 2nd in EPA, 3rd in success rate, and allowing just 17.1 points per game, the lowest mark in the league.

Seattle’s pass defense is extremely zone-heavy, playing zone on 77.1% of snaps (5th-highest) and running two-high, middle-of-field open coverages on 55.9% of plays (6th-highest). In zone coverage, they have allowed just 6.69 yards per attempt, adding 14 interceptions while allowing only seven touchdowns, and held opposing quarterbacks to an average depth of target of just 6.6 yards. They also lead the league in checkdown rate allowed at 14.6%.

The Seahawks blitz at a bottom-10 rate, yet rank 9th in pressure rate, relying on a dominant front four and an extremely athletic secondary while disguising coverages well. That combination makes this matchup particularly difficult to navigate.

That said, Drake Maye has been excellent against zone defenses. Against zone this season, Maye completed 74.3% of his passes, the highest rate in the league, while still pushing the ball downfield with a 9.2 ADOT (3rd-highest) and averaging 8.78 yards per attempt (3rd). The aggressiveness has come with volatility, seven interceptions against zone, league-leading QB-fault sacks, and heavy reliance on scrambling, but the overall efficiency has been elite.

Maye also led the league in scrambles vs zone, and had a 23.28% scramble rate when pressured, the fifth-highest in the league behind Jayden Daniels, Malik Willis, Tyrod Taylor, and Tyler Huntley. This is something Seattle will need to look for, allowing the highest scramble rate on the season at 10.8%.

Looking closer at his performance against similar-caliber opponents paints a slightly less optimistic picture. Against top-10 pass defenses by dropback success rate, Maye completed 115 of 180 passes (63.9%), averaged 8.3 YPA, and threw 10 touchdowns to four interceptions. Tightening that filter to top-5 pass defenses, the sample essentially becomes the postseason, where Maye averaged 6.9 YPA, completed 55.8% of his passes, and threw four touchdowns and two interceptions, failing to eclipse 60% completion in any of the three games. One of those games came against Denver and was heavily impacted by pressure. In the others, he was functional but clearly below his baseline.

Outside of those matchups, Maye has been dominant, averaging 8.79 YPA, completing 72.4% of his passes, and throwing 25 touchdowns to six interceptions. I don’t think Maye and the passing game will fully struggle, but we should expect nowhere near his full-season efficiency numbers against a stingy Seattle defense.

The run game is where Seattle can dictate terms. The Seahawks allow just 3.74 yards per carry (#1 in NFL) and a 1.9% explosive run rate, both best in the league. Against zone runs, they allow 3.85 YPC, and against man/gap concepts just 3.2 YPC. They have allowed only seven runs of 13+ yards to opposing running backs all season, just 1.7% of total attempts. I may or may not have picked 13 because his prop is set at 12.5. Anyways, it makes sense they are good at defending the run because they are an athletic group who are great at tackling.

This is bad news for a Patriots rushing offense that ranks 25th in rushing EPA and 26th in rushing success rate. Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson have split work most of the season. While Stevenson out-carried Henderson 25-to-3 in the last round, that appears situational. In the prior playoff games, their splits were 16-to-12 and 10-to-9, and the most recent game was played in snow, limiting explosive-play potential. I genuinely think they just trusted Stevenson more in the conditions to get a couple of yards and weren’t really looking for the home run style that TreVeyon provides. I would expect a more balanced split in the Super Bowl.

From a scheme standpoint, 37% of Stevenson’s carries come on zone runs, with 50% on man/gap concepts. He averages 4.6 YPC on man/gap and 4.0 on zone. Henderson has been more explosive on zone runs, averaging 4.94 YPC, but in five games against top-10 run defenses by DVOA, Patriots running backs combined for just 3.17 YPC on 117 carries with zero touchdowns.

With the run game likely to fail, it puts the emphasis squarely on the passing game. The Pats may be even more pass-heavy here after a regular season of +5.4% pass rate over expectation. If we think they are going to be a bit more pass-heavy, let’s dig into what that means for the wideouts:

Against zone coverage (Seattle plays 77% zone):

• Stefon Diggs: 19.1% target share, 9.1 ADOT (average depth of target), 2.55 YPRR (Yards per route run), 0.25 TPRR (Target per route run)
• Hunter Henry: 15.7% target share, 8.5 ADOT, 1.96 YPRR, 0.18 TPRR
• Mack Hollins: 14.5% target share, 1.87 YPRR, 0.21 TPRR
• Kayshon Boutte: 12.2% target share, 0.14 TPRR

Diggs was eased in for most of the season but has been running 80%+ of routes in the playoffs. I would expect that to be the case here, and although he certainly isn’t the Stefon Diggs of old, an above-average game here is not off the table.

Play action is the clearest lever New England can pull. Maye completes 77.2% of his passes on play action, averages 9.41 YPA, and owns a 12-to-1 TD/INT ratio on a 6.1 ADOT. The Patriots have used play action on 178 of 702 dropbacks. Without play action, Maye still completes 67.2% and averages 8.4 YPA, but the ceiling is clearly higher when it’s leveraged.

Target usage shifts meaningfully on play action:

• Diggs: 14.7% target share, 0.33 TPRR, 2.93 YPRR
• Hunter Henry: 19.3% target share, 0.32 TPRR, 4.31 YPRR
• Hollins: 11.2% target share, 2.71 YPRR
• Boutte: 7.6% target share

Mack Hollins returned last week and led the team in receiving yards in the weather-impacted conference championship, but still ran fewer routes (15) than Diggs (21), Henry (20), and Boutte (24). With two weeks off, there is a good chance we see slightly more Hollins, especially in the run game. The week prior to Hollins’ return, Kyle Williams and Demario Douglas. Williams was the most impacted, running just eight routes in the conference championship after running 15 the week prior.

The Seahawks have also allowed the 5th-most receptions to tight ends during the regular season (105 total, 6.17 per game), with 12 tight ends catching four or more passes against them.

One more factor working in New England’s favor is mobility. Seattle’s defense has faced the highest scramble rate in the league (10.8%), despite seeing several immobile quarterbacks. That aligns with Maye, who scrambles on 10.37% of his dropbacks and 23.82% when pressured, ranking fifth in the league. His legs will almost certainly need to be part of the solution.

Seattle’s defense is elite, disciplined, and difficult to stress consistently. If the Patriots are going to move the ball, it will likely come through play action, controlled aggression against zone, and Maye’s ability to extend plays, rather than sustained rushing efficiency.

When the Seahawks Have the Ball

Seattle’s offense has been highly efficient through the air, ranking 1st in dropback success rate and 6th in Pass EPA, but not nearly as efficient on the ground. Those numbers come in at 17th in EPA and 23rd in rushing success rate. This is interesting because the Seahawks have traditionally skewed run-heavy this season with the 6th-lowest pass rate over expectation (PROE).

With Zach Charbonnet out, Seattle’s running game is now fully reliant on Kenneth Walker on early downs. Against the Rams, Walker handled 19 of 22 RB carries and 23 of 29 total RB touches, while George Holani played 23 of 67 snaps, handling most third-down, two-minute, and long down-and-distance work due to pass-protection concerns. Holani ran 17 routes to Walker’s 16, saw four targets (three catches), while Walker caught all four of his targets.

That receiving usage matters because the Patriots have allowed the 6th-most receptions and the 7th-most targets to opposing running backs.

Walker now has two games as the full-time starter this season, with 38 yards on 16 carries against the Saints (pulled after 3Q due to blowout) and in the Conference championship against the Rams, where he turned in 65 yards on 19 carries.

Walker is at his best on zone runs, averaging over five yards per carry, but this is a brutal matchup.

When Milton Williams has played 50% or more of the snaps this season, which has occurred in 15 games, including the playoffs, the Patriots have not allowed a single running back to eclipse 50 rushing yards.

In those games, New England has allowed just 3.16 YPC to running backs overall and 3.08 YPC on zone runs, the best mark in the league.

That puts the passing game as a key part of this game plan for the Seahawks. This is where things get really interesting and what I alluded to in the intro. The Patriots' numbers on the season for pass defense look good, ranking 4th in EPA and 11th in dropback success rate.

Yet they have only faced one team all season that finished top-10 in passing efficiency. That was Josh Allen, who played well, but isn’t really all that similar to Darnold and how the Seahawks offense functions with an elite wideout in JSN and multiple solid ancillary options. This is going to be a test they really haven’t seen all season.

Digging in more on the Seahawks passing game, without pressure, Darnold has been elite, completing 73.3% of his passes, averaging 9.02 YPA (best in the league), with a 16-to-7 TD/INT ratio. Under pressure, that drops to a 53.5% completion rate, 7.19 YPA, and a 13-to-7 TD/INT ratio.

Play action is one of the catalysts for this offense. On play action, Darnold averages 10.86 YPA (2nd), with a 68.2% completion rate, a 10.1 ADOT, and a 15-to-5 TD/INT ratio. Without play action, efficiency drops to 7.54 YPA. Seattle runs play action on roughly 30% of dropbacks.

New England has been strong against play action, ranking 7th in completion rate allowed (63.6%) and 5th in YPA allowed (6.62%), but the schedule context matters.

In those two games against Buffalo, Josh Allen completed 19-of-28 for 193 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions, and 22-of-31 for 253 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Combined, that’s 41-of-59 (69%) for 446 yards, 7.55 YPA, five touchdowns, and one interception, plus 101 rushing yards. While Allen and Darnold are very different quarterbacks, those numbers were in line with Allen’s season-long completion rate and just 0.5 YPA below his average.

There is a good chance we see Christian Gonzales shadow Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Gonzales has allowed 57 and 67 yards in coverage the past two games, two of his highest marks all season. He has been susceptible to a big play at times, but targets thrown his way have been completed just 44% of the time on the season (45-of-101).

The Patriots have allowed some of their biggest receiving games this season to multiple movement-based, route-winning wideouts:

• Drake London: 9-118-3
• Emeka Egbuka: 6-115-1
• Tyreek Hill: 5-109-0
• Chris Olave: 6-98-0
• Jakobi Meyers: 8-97-0
• Zay Flowers: 7-84-0

JSN has cleared 90 receiving yards in 14 games this season, and most of his down weeks have come in games where Seattle did not throw much. He accounted for 1,793 of Darnold’s 4,048 passing yards, and the offense largely goes as he goes, especially if the run game is slowed. Slowing him down and forcing Rashid Shaheed, Cooper Kupp, and AJ Barner to beat you has to be the Patriots' plan. If it isn’t, Darnold and JSN are going to feast.

Rashid Shaheed ran 27 routes last week, the third-most since becoming a Seahawk. The team values his blocking and field-stretching ability, but it has not translated into production. He has just 16 catches for 239 yards in 11 games with Seattle. Kupp rounds out most three-receiver sets. Jake Bobo ran a season-high seven routes last week and caught a 17-yard touchdown, though that usage is unlikely to repeat.

The mid-season Shaheed trade impacted rookie tight end Elijah Arroyo, whose route rate dropped from 41.6% before the trade to 26.6% after. He was cleared to return for the conference championship after a Week 14 injury, but was inactive. Even if active here, expectations should be minimal.

AJ Barner quietly had a breakout year by his standards, finishing with 52 receptions. Much of his damage came from a 10-70-0 game against the Rams and a 6-53 outing against Tampa Bay. He has not cleared 50 receiving yards since mid-November.

On paper, this matchup comes down to whether New England can disrupt Seattle’s structure. If the Patriots can limit early-down efficiency on runs, generate pressure without blitzing, and force the non-JSN pass-catchers to beat them, they could have some success on defense. I think in general, the game plan has to start with stopping the run and putting the game into Darnold’s hands.

Bringing it full circle to a nearly unquantifiable factor is the possibility of Darnold getting completely rattled and struggling. He has played awesome this year, but had a full meltdown last season in the playoffs as the starting QB of the Vikings against the Rams. The final box score looks okay for Darnold, but he threw a pick, had a fumble 6 and they couldn’t move the ball prior to it being 24-3. This came a game after struggling against Detroit’s blitz-heavy scheme in Week 18, where he completed 18-of-41 passes. That was the same Detroit team that Jayden Daniels thoroughly dismantled in the playoffs.

Those were just two games, but he also gained notoriety in New York for seeing ghosts against the Patriots in 2019. I don’t think that it is the same opponent that really matters, and these are all different situations, but football isn’t played on paper. There is a very real risk of Darnold having a full meltdown or turning the ball over too much if the Patriots play their cards right. Just a few weeks ago, against the Chargers, the Patriots confused Justin Herbert and the Chargers' OL so bad that players told Robert Spillane after the game they had no idea what the Pats defense was doing.

That type of confusion, along with some strong run defense, should make this game extremely competitive.

On the other hand, the Patriots have played basically no one all year. That doesn’t mean they are bad, elite, or even good. We just really don’t know how they will perform against a step up in competition.

Super Bowl 60 Final Prediction

There is a narrow path to this game shooting out if both passing games start clicking, but I think both sides struggle to run the ball, likely putting them behind the sticks and forcing 2nd-and-3rd-and-long situations. Mike Macdonald is elite at disguising coverages, and Maye has just been okay against good defenses this year. Meanwhile, putting Darnold into spots where you can get pressure and force errors is also exactly where the Patriots want to be. I think it will be a close game largely decided by who makes fewer mistakes. I don't feel good about a final score prediction here and would take the Patriots ATS (+4.5) with a sprinkle on the moneyline, but at the end of the day, think the Seahawks find a way to get it done.

Score: Seahawks 20-17