Hoopes There It Is: Week 16 Game Preview

Dec 17, 2025

Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

You’ve got about a 25% chance to win the championship, assuming your next two matchups are coin flips. That’s the best odds you’ve had all season. The entire point of this article is to help you boost those odds as high as possible.

To kick things off this week, I wanted to highlight success rate because we saw some truly wild stuff (derogatory) in Week 15. The Raiders had a 25% success rate last week against the Eagles. Kenny Pickett ended the day with only 64 passing yards on 25 attempts. That would’ve been one of the lowest success rates I could remember…but the Browns refused to be outdone. The Browns had a 7.7% success rate last week (!) when we exclude garbage time. Only one out of every 13 plays increased their expected points. That’s unfathomably bad. Shedeur Sanders was their leading rusher on two carries, while Quinshon Judkins totaled just 21 yards on 12 attempts.

At this point in the season, we’re hunting for ceiling outcomes from our fantasy players. We need some massive spike games to advance to the championship. And those spike weeks often come from players on good offenses with consolidated volume.

The graph below shows just that. The x-axis shows each team’s season-long success rate, while the y-axis shows the share of targets earned by the top three players solely in last week’s games. It’s so hard to find true ceiling games from teams with success rates as low as the Browns, Titans, and Raiders. The Bills and Packers are frustrating because they’re great offenses, but it’s difficult to know who will spike on a weekly basis. And then teams like the Lions and Rams are the gold standard, separating from the pack in terms of concentration and offensive success, respectively. Let’s get to the game previews!

Rams at Seahawks (Over/Under 44.5 Points, Rams favored by 1.5 points)

Rams (23.0 Implied Points)

• As mentioned in the intro, the Rams are pacing the league in success rate, and last week was no different.
• They hit an elite 61.4% success rate, 67th-percentile passing efficiency, and 93rd-percentile rushing efficiency.
• Matthew Stafford’s EPA was dinged by a really costly interception and 58-yard return by Aidan Hutchinson, but he still hit 368 passing yards and two TDs on the day.
• And the targets have really been concentrated on just Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.
• Unfortunately, Adams aggravated his hamstring injury in the 4th quarter last week, and my assumption at this point is that he sits this week.
• That means Puka Nacua could see an other-worldly target share.
• And Colby Parkinson would be the favorite pick behind Nacua.
• The Rams used 13 personnel (i.e., 1 RB and 3 TEs) on every offensive snap after Adams left the game last week, according to PFF.
• There’s no way that continues for an entire game, but the point is we should see a lot of TEs.
• And Parkinson played on all 13 and 12 personnel snaps on early downs last week, and most of the 11 personnel snaps, according to PFF.
• And he’s earned at least five targets in three straight games and has scored six TDs over his last six games.
• The RB work was almost evenly split as Blake Corum played a career-high 46% of the offensive snaps last week.
• It’s a clear drive-by-drive rotation between Corum and Kyren Williams, with Williams edging out Corum in carries, 15 to 11, and routes, 17 to 15, last week.
• It’s a brutal matchup for everyone on the offense, as the Seahawks’ defense is top-eight in every metric that I track, and they limited this Rams’ offense to only 21 points about a month ago.
• Nacua is a must-start in every format and every league, with Parkinson and the RBs good starts, but dependent on your other options.

Seahawks (21.5 Implied Points)

• The Seahawks have been ever-so-slightly more pass-heavy in recent weeks.
• They had a positive pass rate over expectation (PROE) for the first time in Week 14, and they were about neutral last week.
• Sam Darnold had a tough day relative to what we’ve seen this season, ending the day with 0.08 EPA per play and a 0.6% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) on a low 6.7-yard aDoT.
• But the Seahawks had an above-average success rate of 47% last week, with their EPA efficiency dinged by late down failures.
• They only converted on two of 13 third-down attempts, losing 10.2 expected points on those plays.
• The targets were concentrated on four players last week, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba earning nine targets, Rashid Shaheed and Cooper Kupp each taking seven, and AJ Barner earning five, with no other Seahawks exceeding one.
• All four players ran at least 31 of the team’s 39 routes, with Shaheed’s route rate, target rate, and explosive ability making him a lot more interesting in fantasy than we would’ve guessed based on his usage right after the trade to Seattle.
• The RB work is similar to that of the Rams, as Kenneth Walker led Zach Charbonnet nine to eight in carries but ran one fewer route.
• JSN is a must-start in every format and every league, with Shaheed an option given his recent usage, while I’d ideally sit both RBs against an elite Rams’ run defense.

Eagles at Commanders (O/U 45.5, PHI -6.0)

Eagles (25.75 Implied Points)

• The Eagles got just what they needed in a matchup with the lowly Raiders last week, with the Raiders opting to sim the game to the end.
• The Eagles ran the ball at a rate 15.8% below expectation last week in an easy 31-0 win.
• But on the limited passing volume we did see, the Eagles hit 100th-percentile efficiency, with Jalen Hurts earning 0.93 EPA per play with 14.6% CPOE on a 6.9-yard aDoT.
• Hurts threw for three TDs, averaged 11.7 yards per pass attempt, and generated 6.1 EPA on seven scrambles or designed runs.
• The Eagles as a team had 18 total targets last week; for context, that’s the same number that Amon-Ra St. Brown personally earned.
• It’s tough for the pass catchers to get home on that insanely low volume, with Dallas Goedert earning seven and no other pass-catcher exceeding three.
• It also didn’t help that the Eagles used backups for most of the 4th quarter, explaining why the carries were ultimately split between Saquon Barkley and Tank Bigsby.
• DeVonta Smith’s usage was particularly harmed by the Eagles running 13 plays with one or fewer WRs on the field, according to PFF, with Smith on the sideline for all of those plays.
• The Eagles’ offense is about average, with concentrated targets, but the volume concerns here are obvious and a real drag on every receiver.
• If the Commanders’ offense can’t push the Eagles to try, then the ceiling outcomes disappear.

Commanders (19.75 Implied Points)

• I don’t know if anyone watched the game, but the Commanders scored 29 points last week.
• They had a strong 47.4% success rate and average pass and rush efficiency.
• Marcus Mariota ended the day with 0.10 EPA per play and 4.2% CPOE on a very-high 13.6-yard aDoT.
• But they only had 17 team targets (again, one less than St. Brown himself), leaning on the run against the worst run defense in the league.
• Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin paced the team in targets, but that was only five and four, respectively.
• Theoretically, the Eagles will push the Commanders to pass more often this week, but I could also see this game ending 30 minutes in real-time before any other game like last week.
• Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt led the Commanders’ backfield last week with Chris Rodriguez sidelined, and he took 18 carries compared to Jeremy McNichols’ nine, but only ran eight routes.
• With Rodriguez limited in practice last week before ultimately being ruled out, I assume that Rodriguez plays this week.
• If that’s the case, I’d prefer to avoid starting any of these RBs in fantasy.

Packers at Bears (O/U 46.5, GB -1.5)

Packers (24.0 Implied Points)

• Jordan Love hit a good 0.15 EPA per play last week in an eight-point loss to the Broncos.
• It was their ground game that let them down with only 25th-percentile efficiency.
• That was surprising to me at first because I thought Josh Jacobs looked electric on his 40-yard rushing TD.
• But he averaged only three yards per attempt on his other 11 carries, and the Packers had two big rushing failures on 3rd-and-1 situations.
• The Packers had the least-concentrated target tree in the league last week, which isn’t a huge surprise given what we’ve seen this season.
• Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave tied for the team lead with six, Christian Watson earned five before his injury, and no other Packer exceeded four.
• Watson hurt his chest in the 3rd quarter and didn’t return to the game, but the initial reporting seems positive with Watson avoiding a serious injury.
• You’re starting Josh Jacobs, and then your WR options really depend on whether Watson plays this week, with Reed my preferred option if Watson sits.
• The Bears’ defense is beatable in most aspects, but they’re especially poor in limiting explosive pass attempts, which is a key feature of Watson’s game if he plays.

Bears (22.5 Implied Points)

• The Bears hit a -10.6% PROE last week as they continue to establish the damn run.
• However, they only hit average rushing efficiency in the process.
• Caleb Williams had a good day with 0.16 EPA per play and, even more encouraging, a +1.4% CPOE.
• Williams has really struggled with accuracy this year, with the Bears 29th in CPOE on the season, so the positive CPOE was good to see.
• Rome Odunze aggravated his foot injury during pregame warmups and was ruled out shortly before the game started.
• Luther Burden led the team with seven targets, followed by five each for D.J. Moore and Colston Loveland, while no other Bear exceeded three.
• The Burden targets were even more impressive because he left the game in the 3rd quarter with an ankle injury.
• Burden is my preferred option in this passing game if Odunze sits again and Burden’s ankle injury isn’t serious.
• D’Andre Swift had a great game on the ground for fantasy managers, turning 18 carries into 98 yards and two TDs.
• Swift led Kyle Monangai in carries, 18 to 11, and routes, 13 to 12.
• The splits were a little different this week, though, as Swift dominated the early-down snaps and Monangai took the passing-down snaps and most of the goal-line work.
• Swift is still my preferred option in fantasy, though Monangai’s TD odds are ok if he’s dominating the goal-line work.
• It’s hard to get a read on this Packer defense without Micah Parsons, because Parsons covered up some weaknesses like their inconsistent pressure from other players and inconsistent cornerback play.

Bills at Browns (O/U 42.5, BUF -10.0)

Bills (26.25 Implied Points)

• The Bills are right next to the Packers in the bottom-right of the intro graph, with a good offense but no target concentration.
• One big positive from last week was that Josh Allen attempted passes beyond the line of scrimmage for once, averaging a massive (for him) 9.6-yard aDoT.
• Allen’s advanced metrics were fantastic with 0.35 EPA per play and 10.4% CPOE.
• Khalil Shakir led the team with only five targets; both TEs Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox saw four, and no one else earned more than three.
• Shakir is startable again, depending on your other options, because he played about 43% of the snaps in 12 personnel last week, which is much higher than his typical rate.
• That led to Shakir running 28 of the team’s 35 routes, with no other Bill running more than 19.
• And you’re starting James Cook, who took 22 of the 26 RB carries and 18 of the team’s 35 routes.
• It’s a tough matchup, though, as the Browns’ defense is best in the league at stopping successful runs.
• They’re also number one in the league in sack rate, with Myles Garrett potentially setting the new single-season record in this one.

Browns (16.25 Implied Points)

• It’s hard to describe how bad a 7.7% success rate is, so let’s just move on from that.
• The concentration of the Browns’ top three targets last week was a bit above average.
• But that hides just how dominant Harold Fannin was, as he took 14 of the team’s 30 targets, with no other Brown exceeding four.
• I posted the graph below in the offseason, which showcases just how dominant Fannin was in college, albeit at a small school.
• He’s an incredibly fun story for the Browns and the only player on this team that I’d like to start this week in fantasy.
• Yes, that means I’d prefer to sit Quinshon Judkins, but I get it if you’re limited on options.
• He’s got a few things in his favor this week, though.
• He actually ran 24 of the team’s 42 routes last week, which is way higher than his typical rate, as the Browns were without both Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson.
• And he gets to be a part of the coughing baby versus coughing baby matchup of the week!
• The Browns have been terrible running the ball this season, bottom-seven in rushing efficiency, success rate, and explosives.
• But the Bills’ defense is equally bad in all of those metrics, with opponents opting to run on the Bills at the highest rate in the league.

Chiefs at Titans (O/U 37.5, KC -3.5)

Chiefs (20.5 Implied Points)

• I think both the Chiefs and Titans would be willing to simulate the rest of this season.
• I’m not sure most of the season-long offensive stats matter for the Chiefs going forward, given that Patrick Mahomes is done for the year.
• Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce should continue to consolidate the targets, earning 20 of the team’s 29 total last week.
• But the ceiling cases for both just took massive hits with Gardner Minshew at the helm.
• And the RB split is an uninspiring mess, with Isiah Pacheco re-taking the early-down snaps, while Kareem Hunt is back to being the passing-down and short-yardage back.
• Pacheco ultimately took five more carries than Hunt last week but ran four fewer routes.
• At just 20.5 implied points against the Titans, I’d take a hard look at your other options before starting a Chief.

Titans (17.0 Implied Points)

• The Titans had one of their best offensive games of the season last week.
• They were extremely run-heavy, hitting -12.6% PROE, but were rewarded with 98th-percentile rushing efficiency against an injured 49ers’ run defense that was 28th in rushing success rate allowed going into the week, but efficient nonetheless.
• Cam Ward hit 0.11 EPA per play with -2.7% CPOE on a low 5.9-yard aDoT.
• The low aDoT means most of his value was through receiver yards after the catch, but it’s just nice to see Ward hit positive EPA again.
• Chig Okonkwo actually led the team with six targets, with Chimere Dike and Van Jefferson each earning five, and no one else exceeding four.
• Tony Pollard dominated the RB carries, taking 14 to Tyjae Spears’ three, but Spears led Pollard in routes, 15 to eight.
• I don’t remember the last time I recommended starting any Titan in fantasy, and I doubt that changes this season.

Buccaneers at Panthers (O/U 45.5, TB -3.0)

Buccaneers (24.25 Implied Points)

• The Buccaneers were really pass-heavy last week, hitting +10.9% PROE in a league environment where a bunch of teams are hitting double-digit-negative PROEs every week.
• And Baker Mayfield had a good game, hitting 0.21 EPA per play with -1.1% CPOE on a high 10.6-yard aDoT.
• He’s struggled recently, so it was nice to see his EPA numbers jump back up even in a tough one-point loss to the Falcons.
• Mike Evans returned from injury and immediately led the team with 10 targets, followed by seven for Emeka Egbuka, and four to Chris Godwin.
• Evans earned those 10 targets while running only 28 of the team’s 40 routes, and we should see his route rate increase moving forward.
• Godwin ran essentially every route for the Buccaneers last week, meaning we could see those targets increase in the future.
• But this all meant that Egbuka hit his lowest route share of the season, and that trend could continue with Evans and Jalen McMillan taking more work going forward.
• Bucky Irving dominated the RB carries over Rachaad White, but White actually ran two more routes.
• And then the Buccaneers are using Sean Tucker near the goal-line, explaining why Tucker scored for the 2nd-straight week on just four carries.
• I’d still be willing to start Irving, but last week is the nightmare scenario based on the RB rotation, with Irving taking 16 carries for 60 scoreless yards and only catching one pass.
• There have been moments this season when the Panthers’ run defense has looked good, including last week against the Saints.
• But on the year, they’re only 25th in efficiency.

Panthers (21.25 Implied Points)

• The Panthers were once again extremely run-heavy last week, which isn’t a surprise as they’re 31st in PROE on the season.
• What was a bit surprising was their 81st-percentile passing efficiency last week, with Bryce Young hitting 0.28 EPA per play and 7.1% CPOE.
• The issues for fantasy are the lack of volume and concentration, with Tetairoa McMillan, Jalen Coker, and Tommy Tremble tying for the team lead with only four targets apiece.
• There’s some hope we see more passing volume this week, as the Panthers are three-point underdogs, the Buccaneers have an elite run defense, and opponents pass on the Buccaneers at the 3rd-highest rate in the league.
• But McMillan has seen six total targets in the past two games, which nukes his ceiling outcome.
• The Panthers switched the lead RB on us once again, with Rico Dowdle leading Chuba Hubbard in carries 16 to eight last week.
• They split the routes down the middle with 14 each.
• Dowdle reverts back to my preferred option in the backfield, but as I mentioned, it’s a brutal matchup against this Buccaneers’ run defense.

Chargers at Cowboys (O/U 49.5, DAL -1.5)

Chargers (24.0 Implied Points)

• Finally, a game with a point total near 50.
• It was a huge win over the Chiefs last week for the Chargers, but much of the credit goes to their defense.
• The Chargers’ offense was mostly average, hitting 53rd-percentile passing and 41st-percentile rushing efficiency.
• Justin Herbert ended the day with 0.05 EPA per play and 5.9% CPOE on a low 6.8-yard aDoT.
• Keenan Allen led the team with seven targets, followed by five each for Tre Harris and Oronde Gadsden, with no other Charger above three.
• I personally really like Harris, but he’s only usable if Quentin Johnston remains sidelined.
• Harris was basically Johnston’s direct replacement last week and played on 92.9% of the snaps in two-WR sets and 81.1% in three-WR sets, according to PFF.
• Despite the five targets for Gadsden, his playing time continues to dip, and he’s a very risky bet in the fantasy semi-finals.
• The RB split is still a mess, with Omarion Hampton leading Kimani Vidal in carries, 15 to 12, but only running seven routes to Vidal’s 20.
• When Hampton was on the field, the Chargers consistently ran the ball, and Hampton was able to break a 26-yard run.
• It’s a great matchup against a bottom-four Cowboys’ run defense this week, but with essentially no routes, Hampton has to score a TD or he’s a liability on your starting roster.

Cowboys (25.5 Implied Points)

• The Cowboys have been one of the more pass-heavy teams in the league, but they hit -9% PROE last week.
• And that made sense given the matchup with the Vikings, as the Vikings’ pass defense is much stronger than their run defense, with opponents opting to run on them at the 3rd-highest rate in the league.
• The strategy worked for the Cowboys last week as they hit 95th-percentile rushing efficiency.
• Meanwhile, Dak Prescott struggled to flat EPA per play and -4.1% CPOE.
• CeeDee Lamb paced the team with nine targets, while Ryan Flournoy out-targeted George Pickens five to four.
• That’s a really rough first game of the fantasy playoffs for Pickens, but I’d trust him again this week after earning at least nine targets in his previous six games.
• Malik Davis was a lot more involved than expected at RB, but that’s because Javonte Williams hurt his shoulder.
• Williams returned to the gam,e but he was rotated out a lot more, especially in passing situations.
• Williams ultimately led Davis in carries, 15 to eight, but ran only one route to Davis’ 13.
• The fact that he was able to return to the game is promising, but his status has to be monitored as the week continues.

Vikings at Giants (O/U 44.5, MIN -3.0)

Vikings (23.75 Implied Points)

• J.J. McCarthy’s advanced stats from last week were fantastic, hitting 0.54 EPA per play with 1.7% CPOE on a high 10.4-yard aDoT.
• Based on what we’ve seen this season, McCarthy is somewhere between the worst starting QB in the NFL and a potentially elite option.
• That makes predicting what will happen this week incredibly fun.
• This great performance was once again on relatively low volume, with Justin Jefferson leading the team with eight targets, followed by five for T.J. Hockenson, and four for Jalen Nailor.
• You’ll notice Jordan Addison isn’t on that list, and that’s partially because the Vikings have recently used a lot of multiple-TE sets, with Addison mostly off the field for those plays.
• Ultimately, Jefferson ran all of the team’s 26 routes compared to 18 for Addison.
• But even with the target lead last week, that’s three straight games of only two receptions for Jefferson.
• There’s no way you’re feeling good about starting him this week.
• I will say, there was a ton of fluky stuff last week that should make us feel better about Jefferson moving forward, as he won’t have a couple of ugly drops or a nullified TD every week.
• This Giants’ pass defense is bottom-seven in the league, so I’d be willing to hold my nose and start Jefferson, but I get it, you’ve already found other options at this point.
• Aaron Jones continues to be my strong preference in this backfield as he essentially split the carries with Jordan Mason last week but ran 13 more routes.
• Both should have efficient days against the worst run defense in the league, which is dead-last in efficiency, success rate, and explosive run rate allowed.

Giants (20.75 Implied Points)

• Jaxson Dart had a pretty good game in a loss to the Commanders last week.
• He hit 0.14 EPA per play with -2.6% CPOE on a very-high 11.8-yard aDoT.
• Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton dominated the targets with nine each, and no other Giant exceeded four.
• I would prefer not to start either player this week against an elite Vikings’ pass defense, but Robinson would be my preferred option if I had to start one.
• Tyrone Tracy is my favorite start on this team because he dominated the RB work last week, taking 15 carries to Devin Singletary’s five and running 30 routes to Singletary’s eight.
• It is annoying for our purposes that Singletary is the goal-line back, limiting Tracy’s odds to score a TD.
• But Tracy just played a season-high 80.5% of the early-down snaps in addition to 75% of the third-down snaps, according to PFF.
• And the Vikings’ run defense is much worse than their pass defense.
• We just saw the Cowboys go against their typical plan and run at a high rate against this defense last week.
• The volume could be there for Tracy in this one.

Jets at Saints (O/U 40.5, NO -4.5)

Jets (18.0 Implied Points)

• I don’t know who will be the starting QB for the Jets this week at the time I’m writing.
• I’m assuming it will be Brady Cook once again, but Tyrod Taylor or Justin Fields could be back from their groin and knee injuries, respectively.
• It was a poor game from Cook last week, hitting -0.18 EPA per play, but his 3.1% CPOE was certainly better than I expected.
• If I had to start one Jets’ pass catcher, it would be Adonai Mitchell, who paced the team with eight targets last week and delivered a 6/58/1 line in the process.
• He’s wildly inconsistent, though, with his reception totals over his last four games at two, eight, one, and then six last week.
• There’s a ceiling with Mitchell, but also absolutely no floor.
• Breece Hall only led Isaiah Davis in carries, 12 to nine, and routes, 18 to 14, last week.
• But Davis really started getting involved in the 2nd half with the game out of reach.
• This game is at least not expected to be a blowout, meaning Hall should play all four quarters, but it’s a tougher matchup against an underrated Saints’ run defense.

Saints (22.5 Implied Points)

• Tyler Shough continues to play his team out of an early draft pick and the ability to draft his potential replacement.
• His advanced stats were great last week with 0.32 EPA per play and 4.1% CPOE on an 8.3-yard aDoT.
• Chris Olave is the only player on this team that I really want to start in fantasy, and he paced the team last week with nine targets.
• Devaughn Vele was next with six targets, while Kevin Austin was the only other Saint with more than four targets.
• The RB work ultimately was a mess because Devin Neal suffered a hamstring injury in the 2nd quarter and didn’t return to the game.
• Audric Estime and Evan Hull split the work after Neal left, and I’d prefer to avoid this backfield in the semi-finals, especially if Neal is ruled out.

Bengals at Dolphins (O/U 50.5, CIN -1.5)

Bengals (26.0 Implied Points)

• Our second of three games this week, with a total of around 50 points.
• Ja’Marr Chase earned 16 targets last week; that is the beginning and the end of any positives we can take from last week’s game for the Bengals.
• They were surprisingly run-heavy with a -7.1% PROE.
• But nothing worked on offense with a brutal 38.8% success rate, 8th-percentile passing efficiency, and 20th-percentile rushing efficiency.
• Joe Burrow ended the day with -0.35 EPA per play, but this was dinged a ton by an 11.1 expected-point-loss on a pick-six.
• As mentioned, Chase earned about the same number of targets as the entire Commanders’ team last week.
• And Chase Brown was 2nd on the team with seven targets, partially because Samaje Perine missed some time during the game with an injury.
• That allowed Brown to play more often on 3rd downs, but Perine is expected to play in Week 16.
• We should also get Tee Higgins back, with Chase, Brown, and Higgins clear starts in my view this week.
• This Dolphins’ defense is bad, ranking in the bottom eight in defensive passing efficiency, passing success rate, CPOE, and explosive run rate allowed.
• This feels like a bounce-back spot for the entire offense.

Dolphins (24.5 Implied Points)

• The Dolphins’ offense is equal parts brutal passing efficiency and incredibly fun rushing efficiency.
• Darren Waller led the team with eight targets last week and is definitely a viable start this week.
• He played on a higher percentage of snaps in two-TE sets and on 3rd downs last week, making his performance a bit more sustainable.
• And this Bengals’ defense is atrocious versus opposing TEs, and generally awful against all opposing pass catchers.
• De’Von Achane remains my favorite start on the offense.
• He took 12 of the 15 RB carries last week, and his target rate jumped back up, earning six targets on 29 of the team’s 34 routes.
• The Bengals’ run defense is bottom-four in rushing efficiency, success rate, and explosive run rate allowed, with Achane leading to the Dolphins’ offense to the highest explosive run rate in the league.

Jaguars at Broncos (O/U 45.5, DEN -3.0)

Jaguars (21.25 Implied Points)

• Last week was the best game of Trevor Lawrence’s career in terms of both total EPA (29.2) and EPA per play (0.73).
• The Jaguars hit 99th-percentile passing efficiency, and, almost more impressive for Lawrence, he hit 12.2% CPOE.
• That’s now strong EPA efficiency for the Jaguars in five of their last six games.
• Jakobi Meyers and Brian Thomas Jr led the team with seven targets each, and they are my preferred pass catchers for fantasy.
• And it would be very difficult to bench Travis Etienne after his recent performances, as he’s scored five TDs in his last two games, with three coming via the air last week.
• Bhayshul Tuten hit his finger last week and was ruled out in the 4th quarter, with initial reports suggesting he’ll need surgery that will knock him out until the NFL playoffs.
• It’s not like Tuten was eating into Etienne’s workload much, but this eliminates that possibility completely for our purposes.
• It’s a brutal matchup for all of our Jaguars this week, as this Broncos’ defense is top-six in most categories that I track, including 1st in passing success rate, explosive pass rate, and explosive run rate.

Broncos (24.25 Implied Points)

• Bo Nix is coming off a fantastic game similar to Lawrence’s.
• He hit 0.55 EPA per play with 8.6% CPOE on a healthy 9.5-yard aDoT.
• The efficiency coinciding with that aDoT is really impressive for Nix, as most of his other efficient games have come via receiver yards after the catch rather than air yards.
• And in typical Nix fashion, he didn’t take any sacks, with a strong Broncos’ offensive line helping Nix’s inherent ability to avoid sacks.
• Courtland Sutton led the team with 10 targets, and he’s back to being the only pass catcher you can trust on the Broncos.
• Troy Franklin had a great day on six targets, tying Marvin Mims for 2nd on the team, but Pat Bryant was inactive, and Bryant has moved ahead of Franklin on the depth chart.
• RJ Harvey is my favorite start on the team as he dominated the RB work last week, taking 19 of the team’s 21 carries and running 18 of the team’s 37 routes.
• But Harvey didn’t play in the last six minutes of the game because of a rib injury, and I’m uncertain of his status at the time I’m writing.
• He also has a really tough matchup against a Jaguars’ run defense that is top-six in efficiency, success rate, and explosive run rate allowed.

Falcons at Cardinals (O/U 47.5, ATL -2.5)

Falcons (25.0 Implied Points)

• After posting negative EPA in four of his other six qualifying games this season, Kirk Cousins popped out of nowhere with 0.34 EPA per play and 7.7% CPOE against the Buccaneers last week.
• If anything, the Falcons were unlucky to win the game by only one point because they gave up a massive 125 penalty yards, which isn’t sticky.
• With Drake London out, Kyle Pitts once again led the team in targets and turned in a crushing 11/166/3 line that I’m sure took out a lot of good fantasy teams unlucky enough to face Pitts in the quarterfinals.
• If you started Pitts last week, he was reasonably your best option, and there’s nothing about last week’s performance that should change your mind on that front.
• But London is expected back this week, so we should temper our expectations massively.
• Bijan Robinson is a must-start, with his 11 targets last week so crucial.
• He took 19 of the 21 RB carries and ran 33 of the team’s 45 routes, out-snapping Tyler Allgeier 64 to 12 in the process.
• I would personally stick to Robinson, London, and Pitts as startable options on the Falcons, and wouldn’t chase David Sills’ 10 targets last week.
• This Cardinals’ defense is below-average to atrocious in every stat that I track, making those three Falcons strong options, especially with 25 implied points.

Cardinals (22.5 Implied Points)

• We know exactly what we have with the Cardinals, and that is a team that is going to lose, but they’re going to let Jacoby Brissett chuck it 40 times in the process.
• The fantasy community owes a great debt to Brissett.
• Trey McBride paced the team with 13 targets last week and was the only answer for teams unlucky enough to face Kyle Pitts.
• Michael Wilson then earned 11 targets, with no other Cardinal above four.
• I don’t know Marvin Harrison Jr’s status at the time I’m writing, but the most recent comments I’ve seen don’t sound promising about Harrison playing this specific week, but rather just sometime this season.
• McBride is a must-start in every league, while Wilson is a great start on volume alone if Harrison sits.
• I do expect this Falcons’ pass rush to be a problem, though.
• At RB, Bam Knight hurt his ankle on the very first offensive play of the game, and it’s been described as a bad sprain.
• Michael Carter dominated the work in his absence, leading Emari Demercado in carries, 14 to one, and routes, 31 to five.
• My assumption is that Knight misses this week and, while I don’t expect Carter to dominate the work as much as he did last week, I think he takes the majority of touches and is a viable start depending on your other RB options.

Raiders at Texans (O/U 38.5, HOU -14.0)

Raiders (12.25 Implied Points)

• This is the lowest implied point total for any team in any game all season.
• Lower than the Max Brosmer Vikings, lower than the Dillon Gabriel Browns, lower than a grandfather coming off the street to lead the Colts.
• The Raiders are coming off a game with an abysmal 25% success rate and 2nd-percentile passing efficiency.
• They now face the best defense in the league.
• This is so bad that I’m not even excited to start Brock Bowers, though his individual talent has found a way to overcome his circumstances a lot this season.
• Ashton Jeanty is the only other player you’re considering in fantasy, and he dominated the RB work last week with nine of the 11 RB carries and 18 of the team’s 30 routes.
• Jeanty is more of a PPR scam at this point, as he hasn’t scored a rushing TD since Week 10 and is reliant almost solely on a high reception total to save his day in fantasy.
• At 12 implied points, I’d be willing to sit all Raiders depending on your other options for Bowers and Jeanty.

Texans (26.25 Implied Points)

• C.J. Stroud is coming off an incredibly efficient game with 0.45 EPA per play and 11.9% CPOE.
• One caveat is that performance was on a very-low aDoT of four yards, with 66% of his passing yards coming via receiver yards after the catch.
• Dalton Schultz actually led the team with nine targets, while Nico Collins only saw four.
• Lucky for us, Collins turned those four targets into 85 yards and two TDs.
• Collins is a must-start against a Raiders’ pass defense that is bottom-seven in efficiency and success rate allowed.
• I doubt you’re considering Christian Kirk or Jaylin Noel for your lineups at this point, but they’re not options in this one.
• The Texans played a ton of multi-TE sets last week in a big win, meaning Kirk and Noel rarely played because they mostly rotate in the slot in 11-personnel.
• Well, the Texans are expected to win big again in this one, meaning Kirk and Noel have real playing-time concerns.
• At RB, Woody Marks hurt his ankle last week and left the game in the 2nd quarter.
• Jawhar Jordan stepped in as the primary early-down back, while Dare Ogunbowale took the receiving-back work.
• Initial reports indicate that Marks will be ready to go for this week, and he’s a clear start if that’s the case, with lots of potential volume in an easy-win over the Raiders.

Steelers at Lions (O/U 51.5, DET -7.0)

Steelers (22.25 Implied Points)

• Last week was very efficient for the passing attack, even if Rodgers returned to his usual ways with an incredibly low 3.4-yard aDoT.
• The three leading target earners were RBs or TEs, with Kenneth Gainwell pacing the team with seven targets.
• It’s a strange matchup this week because opponents opt to pass on the Lions with the highest aDoT in the league, while the Steelers’ offense unsurprisingly has the lowest.
• Will the Steelers try to win this game, or will they only throw the ball a few inches from Rodgers’ face after burning all 40 seconds on the play clock?
• How you answer that question will determine your confidence level in starting DK Metcalf this week.

Lions (29.25 Implied Points)

• The Lions had a really bad 35.9% success rate last week.
• Based on that number, they were a bit lucky to lose by only seven points.
• Jared Goff ultimately had a great day with 0.38 EPA per play and 1.5% CPOE.
• A big defensive interception and 58-yard runback set up the Lions in great field position.
• That interception return plus better results on high-leverage downs let the Lions outplay their success rate.
• As mentioned a few times in this article, Amon Ra St. Brown’s 18 targets exceeded the total amount for a few NFL teams last week.
• Jameson Williams finished with 10 targets, Jahmyr Gibbs six, and no other Lion exceeded one.
• That’s why the Lions had the highest target consolidation rate of any team last week, which makes things incredibly easy for us in fantasy.
• St. Brown, Williams, and Gibbs are must-starts and the only skill players you’re realistically considering.
• Since Week 7, Gibbs has rotated between multi-TD games and zero-TD games.
• Well, he’s due to go nuclear in this one, with Gibbs’ workload actually increasing last week despite the poor results.
• Gibbs played over 80% of the offensive snaps and David Montgomery under 20% for the first time this season.

Patriots at Ravens (O/U 48.5, BAL -3.0)

Patriots (22.75 Implied Points)

• It was a rough game for the Patriots’ passing attack last week, with Drake Maye finishing the day with only 0.02 EPA per play and -0.5% CPOE.
• That will happen when Mack Hollins leads your team with eight targets, five more than any other skill player.
• Please, please get Maye some weapons in the offseason.
• But the Pats did finish with 100th-percentile rushing efficiency thanks to TreVeyon Henderson.
• Henderson led Rhamondre Stevenson in carries, 14 to six, and turned those carries into 148 rushing yards and two TDs.
• This Ravens’ run defense has been a bit susceptible to explosive runs this season, and it’d be hard to bench Henderson after last week.
• I do wish the Pats trusted Henderson more in the pass game, with Stevenson running 11 more routes than Henderson last week.
• The lack of routes means we need the explosive runs to hit for Henderson to contribute to our fantasy lineups.
• Some Patriots’ WR probably hits in this game, but your guess is as good as mine who it is, and I’d prefer to avoid anyone besides Maye and Henderson in the semi-finals.

Ravens (25.75 Implied Points)

• The Ravens had 12 total targets last week.
• Five players across the league had at least 12 targets by themselves in Week 15.
• I know I’m belaboring this point, but it’s just so important for fantasy football.
• It’s so hard for any pass catcher to hit in an environment with only 12 total targets.
• Zay Flowers did his best on five targets, while no one else saw more than three.
• This is the only scenario where the Bengals’ defense avoids giving up massive plays to opposing TEs.
• Flowers is the only pass-catcher on the team that you’re confidently starting, and we’re just hoping the pass volume is somewhere in the ballpark of a normal NFL team.
• Keaton Mitchell ate into Derrick Henry’s workload last week, but that was mostly at the end of the game in a blowout win over the Bengals.
• Henry was extremely efficient on the ground, but didn’t get a TD or see any targets.
• Henry is a clear start with the same caveat as the pass catchers, that hopefully this game script dictates some normal-ish amount of volume.

49ers at Colts (O/U 46.5, SF -6.0)

49ers (26.25 Implied Points)

• Brock Purdy was fantastic last week, hitting 0.53 EPA per play with a massive 20.5% CPOE.
• George Kittle paced the team with nine targets, followed by seven for Ricky Pearsall, and five for Jauan Jennings.
• My assumption at this point is that Pearsall sits this week because he aggravated his PCL injury last week and picked up a low ankle sprain as well.
• That helps Jennings’ target ceiling, as he saw his fewest number of targets last week since Week 9 but continued his TD tear, adding another two against the Titans.
• Christian McCaffrey surprisingly only saw one target, but he still ran 34 routes, and I’d be stunned if we don’t see at least four targets this week.
• McCaffrey also dominated the rushing work, leading Brian Robinson in carries, 22 to nine.
• Especially if Pearsall sits, Kittle, McCaffrey, and Jennings are all fantastic starts.

Colts (20.25 Implied Points)

• The Colts turned massively run-heavy last week, hitting -16.9% PROE.
• That’s not a surprise given their QB is ancient and just played his first NFL game in five years.
• Philip Rivers’ advanced stats weren’t good, hitting -0.06 EPA per play with -0.4% CPOE.
• But they also weren’t as bad as I expected.
• His passes had absolutely no zip on them, but somehow got to the intended target more often than not.
• His 5.3-yard aDoT also wasn’t a surprise, with nearly 80% of his passing yards coming via receiver yards after the catch.
• Everything is going to be near the line of scrimmage, meaning Alec Pierce is running routes for the love of the game out there.
• My preferred starters in this environment are Tyler Warren and Josh Downs because they typically operate in areas of the field that Rivers is going to attack.
• Both Jonathan Taylor and Ameer Abdullah saw at least four targets as well.
• Abdullah earned five targets on an insane six routes last week, so that’s just not something we can chase.
• Our confidence level in starting Taylor can be higher this week than last week, as Rivers is mostly functional and the 49ers’ run defense is 2nd-worst in the league in success rate allowed.