SBFFC Satellite Draft Review #2: Values and Reaches

Jul 22, 2020

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With the NFLPA agreeing to the testing protocol it’s easy to be optimistic about a full season happening. Fantasy drafts will continue to pop off leading up to the season including a live draft in Kentucky called The SBFFC. For those of you who don’t know what the SBFFC is or the format you can find out more information here.

As I noted in my first draft review here’s a quick rundown of the league:

The SBFFC is a similar tournament to the FFPC and NFFC but is hosted in Kentucky and is a $200 entry to their main event. It's a 12-team PPR league with a tournament-style prize pool. I attended the draft last year and will be attending again this year along with fellow 4for4 writer, Chris Allen. There are a few quirks that I personally enjoy that are important towards roster construction and how to strategize.

Drafts include a third-round reversal. This means:

Round 1 draft order: Team 1–Team 12
Round 2 draft order: Team 12–Team 1
Round 3 draft order: Team 12–Team 1
Round 4 draft order: Team 1–Team 12

It gives an advantage to those picking at the end of the first round and makes it harder for those who get an early pick. I think it’s a fun twist when considering you get to bid on the right to choose your draft position using FAAB (Free agent acquisition budget). Before the draft, the commissioner will have auction-style bidding for the right to choose your draft position. This means that the person who wins the first bid has the right to choose any draft pick. After they choose their draft pick, the commissioner re-opens up bidding for the next-highest bidder. It continues from there until the draft is full. It’s a fun twist that allows you to enter your draft with specific planning on not only acquiring your favorite draft slot but going and grabbing “your guys”.

Just like the fantasy draft afterward, It’s always interesting to see how players strategize differently with bidding on their draft picks. Some will bid up to half of their available FAAB in order to get a top-three pick. Others will literally wait until the very end and use no FAAB, saving it all for the season. I can’t say with certainty that either strategy is right but I fall somewhere in between.

Here's how the FAAB Bidding wound up from this specific draft:

1st - Run CMC $475
2nd - Dick’s Dynasty $400
3rd - MidMoMonster 2 $350
4th - Chris Allen 4for4 $225
5th - Beermoney 80 $100
6th - Vegas Bound $25
7th - BG Gridiron $200
8th - Jason Steube $0
9th - SSL $1
10th - Mean Machine $300
11th - Rocket $100
12th - Cajun Mafia $35

I didn’t participate in this specific draft but Chris Allen did. I’ll be breaking down this draft by the most notable picks in terms of where the player was selected vs their multi-site ADP.

Here’s the full draft board:

	Team 1	Team 2	Team 3	Team 4	Team 5	Team 6	Team 7	Team 8	Team 9	Team 10	Team 11	Team 12
1	Christian McCaffrey	Saquon Barkley	Dalvin Cook	Alvin Kamara	Ezekiel Elliott	Michael Thomas	Tyreek Hill	Joe Mixon	DeAndre Hopkins	Derrick Henry	Nick Chubb	Miles Sanders
2	Lamar Jackson	Cooper Kupp	Patrick Mahomes	George Kittle	Aaron Jones	Josh Jacobs	Austin Ekeler	Travis Kelce	Chris Godwin	Kenyan Drake	Julio Jones	Davante Adams
3	Chris Carson	Le'Veon Bell	Mark Andrews	James Conner	Adam Thielen	Jonathan Taylor	Mike Evans	Robert Woods	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	Allen Robinson	Todd Gurley	Melvin Gordon
4	Kenny Golladay	JuJu Smith-Schuster	Odell Beckham	Amari Cooper	Leonard Fournette	Terry McLaurin	Zach Ertz	Calvin Ridley	Cam Akers	Dak Prescott	David Johnson	Russell Wilson
5	Mark Ingram	Courtland Sutton	Raheem Mostert	DK Metcalf	T.Y. Hilton	Kareem Hunt	Keenan Allen	D.J. Moore	Deshaun Watson	A.J. Brown	Devin Singletary	Tyler Lockett
6	DeVante Parker	David Montgomery	Alexander Mattison	D.J. Chark	A.J. Green	D'Andre Swift	Kyler Murray	Julian Edelman	J.K. Dobbins	Tyler Higbee	Stefon Diggs	James White
7	Austin Hooper	Hunter Henry	Antonio Gibson	Marquise Brown	Evan Engram	Tyler Boyd	Tarik Cohen	Josh Allen	Michael Gallup	Damien Williams	Jarvis Landry	Darren Waller
8	Deebo Samuel	Brandin Cooks	Will Fuller	Matt Ryan	Drew Brees	Diontae Johnson	Emmanuel Sanders	Ronald Jones	Jamison Crowder	Marvin Jones	Rob Gronkowski	Christian Kirk
9	Sterling Shepard	Sony Michel	Jalen Reagor	Tevin Coleman	Derrius Guice	Noah Fant	John Brown	Anthony Miller	Hayden Hurst	Matt Breida	Tom Brady	Jordan Howard
10	Kerryon Johnson	Carson Wentz	Michael Pittman	Marlon Mack	Aaron Rodgers	Zack Moss	Phillip Lindsay	Ke'Shawn Vaughn	Latavius Murray	CeeDee Lamb	Duke Johnson	Boston Scott
11	Sammy Watkins	Daniel Jones	Henry Ruggs III	Tony Pollard	Allen Lazard	Jonnu Smith	Harrison Butker	Nyheim Hines	Darius Slayton	Golden Tate	Ito Smith	Jerry Jeudy
12	Steelers	49ers	Damien Harris	Preston Williams	Patriots	Baker Mayfield	Ryan Tannehill	Mike Gesicki	Jared Cook	Matthew Stafford	T.J. Hockenson	Jack Doyle
13	Alshon Jeffery	N'Keal Harry	Danny Amendola	Darrell Henderson	Robby Anderson	Ian Thomas	Dede Westbrook	Cam Newton	Chase Edmonds	Dallas Goedert	Mike Williams	Joe Burrow
14	Justin Jefferson	Chris Herndon	Ravens	Curtis Samuel	Eric Ebron	Jimmy Garoppolo	Jerick McKinnon	Darrynton Evans	Mecole Hardman	Joshua Kelley	Kirk Cousins	Justin Jackson
15	Rashaad Penny	Jalen Richard	Robbie Gould	Saints	DeSean Jackson	Drew Lock	Chiefs	Giovani Bernard	Bills	Greg Zuerlein	Justin Tucker	Wil Lutz
16	Hunter Renfrow	Corey Davis	Ben Roethlisberger	Matt Gay	Randall Cobb	A.J. Dillon	Adrian Peterson	Steven Sims	Jared Goff	Blake Jarwin	Brandon Aiyuk	Larry Fitzgerald
17	Jake Elliott	Zane Gonzalez	Jace Sternberger	Gardner Minshew	John Ross	Anthony McFarland	Greg Olsen	Malcolm Brown	Younghoe Koo	Chargers	Vikings	Devin Funchess
18	Teddy Bridgewater	Bears	Ryquell Armstead	Gerald Everett	Chris Thompson	Titans	Tyrell Williams	Ty Montgomery	Chase Claypool	Breshad Perriman	Laviska Shenault Jr.	Rams
19	Tee Higgins	Irv Smith	Dare Ogunbowale	James Washington	Denzel Mims	Matt Prater	Josh Reynolds	Broncos	Buccaneers	Carlos Hyde	Lynn Bowden	O.J. Howard
20	Jimmy Graham	Rex Burkhead	Antonio Gandy-Golden	Parris Campbell	Brandon McManus	Cole Beasley	Mohamed Sanu	Sam Sloman	Chase McLaughlin	Reggie Bonnafon	David Njoku	Jamaal Williams

WR Tyreek Hill, Chiefs; Pick 1.07

It isn’t all that surprising to see Tyreek Hill go in the first round but seeing him go as the WR2 just one pick after Michael Thomas was interesting. Davante Adams seems to be the consensus WR2 in most drafts but wasn’t taken until WR4, behind Thomas, Hill, and DeAndre Hopkins. The case for Hill is fairly obvious as a high-upside wideout but the question many drafters will face is whether the opportunity cost of drafting Hill in this spot instead of a running back is too high. In the drafts I’ve done, running backs face a steep drop-off in floor and upside towards the end of Round 3 while legitimate WR1 candidates are still lingering in the late fifth and early sixth rounds. I personally like a lot of my builds where I take at least one running back in the first two rounds but to each their own.

WR DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals; Pick 1.09

A lot of what I talked about in Hill’s section can be echoed here in terms of opportunity cost. Hopkins is also a bit riskier to me than Adams, Hill, or Thomas. I get a lot of 2019 Odell Beckham vibes from this situation. The most important factor is that he’s changing teams and quarterbacks. Kyler Murray projects to take a step forward this season but that’s part of the issue—projecting things like this is a dangerous game. The Browns offense was projected to light the league on fire with Baker Mayfield and OBJ leading the way. They fell far short of the mark. Is Hopkins talented? Yes. Is Kyler Murray talented? Yes. It makes sense on paper, but it doesn’t always work out that way in real life. Also, In Kliff Kingsbury’s offense that features lots of four WR sets, it might be tough for Hopkins to attract as much target volume as he did in years past with the Texans. The upside is high but the floor is dangerously low for Hopkins.

WR Cooper Kupp, Rams; Pick 2.11

Kupp was the WR2 overall for the first nine weeks of the 2019 season but midway through the season, the Rams offense changed course. In Weeks 1-9 they utilized 11 personnel (3 WR sets) on 80% of their snaps and 12 personnel on just 11% of their snaps. In Weeks 10-17 they utilized 11 personnel (3 WRs on the field) 67% of the time and 12 personnel 30% of the time. This decreased Kupp’s usage in the slot and from Week 10-17 he was the WR42. What are the Rams going to do this season? I’m not sure anyone really knows and even if we do, there’s a chance we see a midseason change in order to switch things up (H/T Noah Ruddell for bringing this up). I’m fine with taking a stab at either Kupp or Robert Woods in the fourth round but the late second and even early third round is tough.

RB Alexander Mattison, Vikings; Pick 6.03

Mattison was selected by the same team that drafted Dalvin Cook at 1.03. It was a pure handcuff maneuver in fear of Cook’s holdout threats coming to fruition. The viability of a handcuff has been widely debated throughout the years in the fantasy community. A lot of the anti-cuffers note that oftentimes the player you select as the handcuff isn’t useable until too late in the season and you end up dropping him or he ends up sharing a lot of work with other backups. All of that is valid but shouldn’t be applied broadly as each situation needs context. It’s a reasonable strategy in regular season-long drafts with no tournament-style prize pools and a deep bench. The sixth round is a bit early but if you are that confident in the Vikings backfield producing and Mattison being a 1-1 replacement for Cook in the case of him continuing to hold out, the pick could pan out. It’s worth noting the actual SBFFC is a tournament-style, top-heavy season-long league where the value of handcuffs might lose some luster.

WR D.J. Chark, Jaguars; Pick 6.04

Chark’s aggregate ADP at 4for4 is only 59^th but in the two $1,900 Main Event Draft’s I’ve participated in, Chark has gone at 4.09 and 5.07. Especially considering those drafts are tight end premium which forces tight ends even higher, Chris Allen got a steal at 6.04 in this one. Chark broke out in his second season as the Jaguars clear No. 1 wideout. He went over 1000 yards despite only playing in 15 games. With the Jaguars boasting the lowest win total on the board (4.5) they figure to face plenty of negative game script. Gardner Minshew targeted him on 22% of his throws last season (in games Chark played) and figures to remain the started through thick and thin next season. Chark is a slam-dunk pick in the sixth round.

RB Antonio Gibson, Team Names; Pick 7.10

Antonio Gibson has so much upside, but at 7.10 that might already be baked into that price. Gibson only had 77 career collegiate touches (no, not a typo) but made the most of them. He averaged 19 yards per reception and 11.2 yards per carry on the ground in addition to 14 total touchdowns. In reality, most of his lack of collegiate production is irrelevant when projecting Gibson’s production in 2020. New head coach Ron Rivera has likened Gibson to fantasy stud Christian McCaffery and plans to use him in the passing game. With pass-catching deficient running back’s Adrian Peterson and Derrius Guice on the depth chart in front of him, it adds up. I think Gibson’s floor is a Chris Thompson-light role. His ceiling is massive if he starts to get more touches or is frequently running routes on early downs.

With the SBFFC about a month away, I’ll have another article written up prior to the live draft in Kentucky. If you are interested in participating and potentially drafting against Chris Allen and me, check out SBFFC's website.