Mark Ingram is coming off a solid first season in Baltimore, finishing the year with 1,265 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns, including 26 receptions. Ingram benefitted from being a part of the league’s number one offense in points per game, despite losing carries to both quarterback Lamar Jackson and backup Gus Edwards in a change-of-pace role. Ingram doesn’t so much have upside as he has steady production, year after year. Over the past four seasons, he averages 0.64 touchdowns per game and was 12th among running backs last season in red zone rushing attempts.
The big concern with Ingram is the addition of J.K. Dobbins in the second round of the draft. Dobbins does a little bit of everything and projects as a potential three-down and long-term starter for the Ravens. So Ingram not only has to contend with Jackson’s consistent rushing and Gus Edwards closing out blowouts, he also has a young, explosive rookie threatening his job. Ingram will also turn 31 in December. Ingram also seems bound for a touchdown regression regardless of the competition on the team. T.J. Hernandez’s Studs and Duds article showed his total expected touchdowns to be 10.25, compared to the 15 he scored.
2020 Bottom Line
The addition of Dobbins and Ingram getting on in years is extremely concerning, as is the probable touchdown regression. However, he’s being drafted in the fifth round of 12-team leagues, giving him some value for fantasy owners looking at locking up a solid RB2 after the initial surge of backs are off the board. We have him ranked right in line with guys like Melvin Gordon and Le’Veon Bell, who are both going a couple rounds earlier. If you can wait and still get Ingram, he has the potential to pay off for you. However, he should be viewed as someone fantasy owners fall back to, rather than aggressively targeting.