• T.Y. Hilton

  • WR
  • , Indianapolis Colts
  • 31
  • 183 lbs
  • 5' 10"
PtsRecYdsRecTDRecRuYds
805015450
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Draft note
by John Paulsen
Hilton is a prime candidate for a bounce-back season given the arrival of Philip Rivers, which should provide a boost to the Colts’ passing attack. When applying Hilton’s 2019 market shares to the Chargers’ 2019 offense (under Rivers), he would project to catch 97 passes for 1241 yards and 10.9 touchdowns. Those numbers are probably a stretch, but Hilton has a chance to get back to some semblance of the production he had with Andrew Luck. He averaged 5.7 catches for 92 yards and 0.41 touchdowns in 29 games with Luck since 2016. His sixth round ADP looks like a bargain.

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Scouting report

by Brandon Niles

IND WR T.Y. Hilton - 2020 Fantasy Football Outlook

Fantasy Upside

T.Y. Hilton has always been one of my favorite underrated receivers. All he does is churn out 1,000-plus yard seasons year in and year out, despite getting very little recognition as the WR1 he is. He’s had at least 1,000 yards in five of his eight seasons and averages 4.7 receptions, 72.9 yards and 0.38 touchdowns per game over the course of his career. Until injuries cost him six games last year, he’s had at least 100 targets in every season except his rookie year. Hilton should benefit from the addition of quarterback Philip Rivers and if he doesn’t have the same injury issues he had in 2019, he should be a lock for over 100 targets once again. He was on pace for 109 targets last year during the 10 games he played in.

Fantasy Downside

Missing six games last year and two the year before after missing just one throughout his previous six years is concerning for a wide receiver who will turn 31 in November. I wouldn’t say Hilton is injury prone or even in a definite decline, but it’s at least possible he’s past the apex of his career. Hilton has always been undersized at 5-foot-10, 183 lbs and the hits he takes averaging 69 receptions per season might be taking its toll. Hilton has also never scored more than seven touchdowns in a season, so that limits his fantasy upside.

2020 Bottom Line

Hilton’s production in 2020 is likely tied to how much of an improvement Rivers ends up being over the starter from last year, Jacoby Brissett. Rivers is definitely more accomplished, but he looked rough last season and is now 38 years old. Still, even if Rivers is right on par with what Brissett did last year and Hilton produces at the same clip he did during his 10 games of action, he’ll still be good for a solid floor of 72 catches and 802 yards. However, if he’s healthy and Rivers is any kind of an upgrade, Hilton should sniff WR1 territory. We have him ranked as a WR2 in our rankings and he’s available in the late-fifth round, so he’s solid value for fantasy owners looking for some steady veteran production.

2020 Strength of Schedule - IND

W1W2W3W4W5W6W7W8W9W10W11W12W13W14W15W16W17
11
@JAX
26
MIN
28
NYJ
3
@CHI
12
@CLE
25
CIN
BYE32
@DET
10
BAL
15
@TEN
16
GB
15
TEN
22
@HOU
27
@LV
22
HOU
7
@PIT
11
JAX

Schedule difficulty based on schedule-adjusted, positional defensive ranking. Top DEF = 1, bottom DEF = 32.

2019 Game Stats

WeekOppRecRecYdsRecTDTgtsYPRRuAttRuYdsRuTDFumYPCSTDPPRSnaps%
1@LAC8872910.8800000.0020.728.756/6388.9%
2@TEN4431610.7500000.0010.314.365/7290.3%
3ATL8651108.1200000.0012.520.537/7152.1%
4LV--------------
5@KC437059.2500000.003.77.767/8182.7%
6BYE--------------
7HOU67411112.3300000.0013.419.470/7692.1%
8DEN2540627.0000000.005.47.460/6493.8%
9@PIT--------------
10MIA--------------
11JAX--------------
12@HOU318066.0000000.001.84.825/6737.3%
13TEN--------------
14@TB--------------
15@NO425096.2500000.002.56.529/5651.8%
16CAR326048.6700000.002.65.638/6459.4%
17@JAX3720324.0000000.007.210.238/5667.9%
Per game4.5050.100.506.9011.1300000.008.0112.5148.50/67.0071.62%
Totals4550156911.1300000.0080.1125.1485/67071.62%
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