O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 12

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 12 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Patriots @ Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals' defense held the Steelers’ passing attack to a modest 232 yards, but still allowed 0.38 EPA per dropback, while their lack of tackling was on full display. Through their ten games, the Bengals have allowed an eye-popping 63.9% of their passing yards to come after the catch (32nd), and paired with a pass-rush that only forces pressure on 33.6% of dropbacks (28th), quarterbacks must be feeling pretty great about letting their receivers pad the stats. They’ve been doing that in bunches, as Cincy ranks 32nd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing offenses, and 31st in QB aFPA.

Drake Maye will be the next beneficiary, and fantasy managers who have watched him deliver a few middling performances in a row will more than welcome another one of his mid-season 20+ point games. In addition to Maye and Stefon Diggs, this also presents a scenario in which we can semi-confidently plug Mack Hollins into a WR3 slot, and even Hunter Henry has a great opportunity to put up double-digit fantasy points for the first time since Week 4.

Lions vs. Giants

While the Lions' offensive line hasn’t been performing at the same heights we came to expect through the 2024 season —or even earlier this season— they’ll have a good chance to support a bounce-back from a skill position perspective against the New York Giants. Though the trio of Brian Burns, Abdul Carter, and Kayvon Thibodeaux has looked good throughout the season, there’s a chance Thibodeaux misses his second-straight game, and they still have enough worries in the secondary to make it a moot point. Even in a “down” year, Penei Sewell (3rd, 98.3) and Taylor Decker (19th, 97.0) grade out well in pass-blocking efficiency among the league’s 59 qualifying tackles.

On the season, the Giants’ back-end is allowing 0.38 EPA (27th) and 124.5 yards per game (25th) to wide receivers on non-pressured throws, which lines up well for both Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams in the team’s second game without TE Sam LaPorta. Slot ARSB right back into top-5 territory, while Williams is a great WR2 option with his recent spike in usage.

Chiefs vs. Colts

A game with massive implications to the AFC playoff picture pits an inconsistent Chiefs passing attack against a Colts defense that has been riding a very similar roller coaster. Though Indianapolis headed into their Week 11 bye by holding the Titans, Steelers, and Falcons to a moderate 6.4 YPA, they have also allowed the two Los Angeles teams to accrue 801 passing yards on 8.3 yards per attempt. Kansas City might not have the same receiving firepower that the Rams and Chargers have, but they do have this Patrick Mahomes fella, who averages 194.6 passing yards on non-pressured throws, the sixth-highest mark in the league.

That strength could be highlighted while facing a Colts defense that ranked 25th in pressure rate over expected through Week 7 (2.50%), but has cratered to 30th (-3.68%) over the last three games. This is no doubt hampered by the loss of DeForest Buckner, who has been a stalwart at creating havoc along the interior of the line.

With Mahomes potentially operating with plenty of time, a bounce-back game should be in the cards for Rashee Rice, but this is also a spot where we should feel a little better about Xavier Worthy as a WR3.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Saints vs. Falcons

Things have gone from bad to worse for the Falcons' offense. After dealing with long-term injuries to both the interior and exterior of the o-line, they were subsequently hit at wide receiver, and now, Michael Penix Jr. has been ruled out for the remainder of the season. Their preseason over/under of 8.5 is hilarious in hindsight, and they now have the 27th-ranked scoring offense as they turn to Kirk Cousins to take over.

Cousins —who finished last season with an 18:16 TD-to-INT ratio— has averaged 4.81 YPA on his 53 dropbacks this season, averaging 0.20 fantasy points per dropback; both numbers that would easily rank dead last if he had enough dropbacks to qualify. The Saints —who are currently 1.5-point favorites— are coming out of their bye after quietly allowing a minuscule 182.5 passing yards and -0.02 EPA per dropback over the trailing month of games. In that same stretch of games, they racked up four turnovers and eight sacks. They are a sneaky D/ST play in both redraft and DFS.

Raiders vs. Browns

The Las Vegas Raiders are fresh off a game in which they allowed four passing touchdowns, but things should be a little easier here in Week 12. Even regardless of the recent quarterback change, the Browns come into this matchup ranked dead last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing D/STs, with each of their last three opponents scoring between 9.0-19.0 points.

Shedeur Sanders had his hand in the most recent debacle, completing only 25% of his 16 pass attempts, with 14.3% of them being deemed “turnover worthy”, despite only one going for an interception. Adding insult to injury, Sanders backtracked into two deep sacks, a bad habit that might be difficult to correct in one week of practices before facing off against Maxx Crosby screaming off the edge.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Rams vs. Buccaneers

While the Buccaneers’ defensive front isn’t one we should be targeting from a rushing perspective (second in adjusted line yards and stuff rate), their propensity to allow receptions to running backs changes things for fantasy purposes. On the season, Tampa Bay ranks 31st in completion percentage (87.0%) and EPA per RB target (0.52), while ranking last in receiving yards per game (58.7) and YPA on attempts to the RB (10.9). This creates enough of a floor for Kyren Williams to negate a potentially inefficient week between the tackles.

Eagles @ Cowboys

The Philadelphia Eagles will be missing right tackle Lane Johnson for up to six weeks due to a Lisfranc injury suffered in Week 11, but their first matchup after the injury should help to alleviate some concerns. Though the defensive additions for Dallas —and the miserable state of the Raiders’ offensive line— made them look like a run-stuffing unit, they still rank 29th in RB aFPA over the last ten weeks (which would obviously include Week 11).

The Eagles' offense as a whole has been a pretty disappointing squad this season, but they do sneakily rank fifth in RB yards before contact, while the Cowboys allow 0.03 EPA per non-QB attempt, the fifth-highest rate. Saquon Barkley is in a great position to grind out a top-10 week; something that we haven’t seen enough of in 2025.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing:

• Isaiah Davis, Jets
• Tony Pollard, Titans
• Ashton Jeanty, Raiders
• Rachaad White, Buccaneers