Hoopes There It Is: Week 12 Game Preview

Nov 19, 2025

Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

The season is flying by, and the default Yahoo trade deadline is this Saturday. Let’s spend the intro today looking at the defensive side of explosive plays, along with my expected point models, to see who we should target for championship week. (I’ve included the expected fantasy point tables at the end of the article.) The graph below is focused only on the defensive side of the ball. The x-axis shows the rate of explosive pass plays allowed, while the y-axis shows explosive run plays allowed. Intuitively, we’re trying to target players who square off against the teams in the top-right corner in Week 17. And ideally, we’re doing this on the cheap. Let’s dig into some potential options.

The Bears give up the highest rate of explosive pass plays in the league by a decent margin. They play the 49ers during championship week. I made preferring Jauan Jennings over Ricky Pearsall my entire personality this offseason. And I’ve ultimately been correct, but certainly not in the way I expected with Pearsall’s injuries. With that context in mind, I, of all people, am saying it’s a great time to acquire Pearsall off of a zero-yard game. He profiles as the more explosive player than Jennings and, realistically, would really benefit from the matchup if he’s fully healthy by the end of December.

The Cowboys play the Commanders in Week 17. Chris Rodriguez is clearly the RB you want in Washington going forward, though your league mates may not realize it yet. Don’t get too far over your skis because he lacks a pass-catching role, but he should be very efficient against the Cowboys’ run defense.

The Bengals play the Cardinals during championship week. Whatever buy window there was for Trey McBride slammed shut weeks ago, with McBride now separating from the next TE by a massive three expected fantasy points per game. That’s nearly a Christian-McCaffrey-sized expected point gap at his position. But Trey Benson could still be cheap, given his injury status. Let’s get to the game previews!

Bills at Texans (Over/Under 43.5, Bills favored by 5.5)

Bills (24.5 Implied Points)

• The Bills’ skill players leave a lot to be desired, with Keon Coleman inactive last week for disciplinary reasons and Dalton Kincaid week-to-week with a hamstring injury.
• Josh Allen decided to put on the Superman cape and score six TDs anyway.
• He wasn’t perfect by any means, completing passes at a rate slightly below expectation and throwing two interceptions.
• But he also didn’t take any sacks and averaged 10.6 yards per pass attempt with Tyrell Shavers and Josh Palmer leading the way in targets.
• James Cook handled 16 of the 17 RB carries but did split the routes with Ty Johnson.
• Regardless, Cook and Allen are the only Bills’ players you can truly count on in fantasy, given Kincaid’s injury.
• Though I’d still be willing to start Shakir despite the -3 yards last week (not a typo) as he was the only Bills’ WR with a route share above 50% last week.
• It’s a brutal matchup this week against a Texans’ defense that is top-four in defensive pass EPA per play, pass success rate, completion percentage over expected (CPOE), rush EPA per play, and explosive run rate.
• That’s the reason why the Bills’ implied points are only 24.5 this week compared to their typical number in the upper 20s.

Texans (19.0 Implied Points)

• An ok game from Davis Mills last week, hitting 42nd percentile passing efficiency.
• Mills doesn’t have enough dropbacks to qualify, but if he did, he would be 26th out of 35 qualifying QBs in EPA per play, right around Aaron Rodgers’ mark.
• We’ll get one more game with Mills at the helm with CJ Stroud ruled out on a short week.
• Nico Collins unsurprisingly led the way with 10 targets last week, followed by nine for Dalton Schultz, and seven for Jayden Higgins.
• Higgins was second on the team in WR snaps and played over 50% of the snaps in 11 personnel for the first time in a game when Nico Collins was healthy, according to PFF.
• While that’s great news for Higgins’ role, Jaylin Noel is unfortunately still buried, running only 14 of the team’s 47 routes.
• Woody Marks dominated the RB work, leading Nick Chubb 18 to three in carries and 17 to nine in routes.
• In a new weekly segment, the Texans’ run game versus the Bills’ run defense is the coughing baby vs coughing baby matchup of the week!
• The Texans are dead-last in both rushing success rate and explosive run rate.
• But the Bills’ run defense continues to get lit up; they’re bottom-three in rushing EPA and explosive run rate allowed, with opponents opting to run on the Bills at the highest rate in the league versus expectation.
• If there was ever a time for the Texans to get some rushing explosives, this is it.

Giants at Lions (O/U 50.5, DET -10.5)

Giants (20.0 Implied Points)

• We don’t need to dwell too much on last week, as I’m assuming Jaxson Dart is back for this game against the Lions.
• Though Jameis Winston’s advanced metrics were pretty good despite the Giants leaning heavily into the run with a -17.4% pass rate over expected (PROE).
• Those advanced metrics also don’t capture just how many interceptions Winston *should* have thrown.
• Wan’Dale Robinson paced the team with nine targets, with Isaiah Hodgins popping out of nowhere with six, and no other Giant exceeding four.
• I don’t think Hodgins is a realistic starting option in fantasy, but Robinson remains an uninspiring start in full PPR leagues.
• The RB situation is also murky with Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary in a 50/50 split last week.
• Tracy led the way with 19 carries to Singletary’s 16, and each ran exactly 15 routes.
• With that workload, Singletary is my preferred option because he at least is getting the goal-line work, but Tracy, in my view, is clearly the superior talent.
• It’s a tough matchup for the Giants all-around as the Lions’ defense is top-five in defensive pass EPA per play and top-10 against the run.
• The weakness of this defense is explosive run rate allowed, but that is also the weakness of the Giants’ offense.

Lions (30.5 Implied Points)

• It was a very rough Week 11 for the Lions’ offense, hitting a 33.3% success rate, 7th-percentile pass efficiency, and 5th-percentile rush efficiency.
• Jared Goff’s -30.1% CPOE is the 2nd-lowest I can personally remember, behind only Shedeur Sanders’ -34.8% in the same week.
• The sportsbooks are not concerned, giving the Lions the highest implied point total for the week.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown led the team with 11 targets last week, but managed to only catch two of them; I highly doubt that happens again this season.
• Jahmyr Gibbs earned eight targets and Jameson William six, with no other Lion exceeding four.
• Gibbs also had the clear lead on the RB work, taking 12 carries to David Montgomery’s six and running 28 routes to Montgomery’s 12.
• The Lions have been passing the ball a bit more lately, but are still 29th in PROE on the season.
• As 10.5-point favorites at home against the league’s worst run defense, I’d expect a lot of both Gibbs and Montgomery in this one.

Seahawks at Titans (O/U 40.5, SEA -13.5)

Seahawks (27.0 Implied Points)

• We got the Sam Darnold who sees ghosts last week, hitting -0.24 EPA per play via four interceptions.
• Each of Darnold’s four interceptions came on plays where Darnold held the ball for more than 2.5 seconds, with the Rams’ defense getting interior pressure and messing with Darnold’s timing.
• The Seahawks leaned heavily into the run, as they often do, with a -11.8% PROE.
• The Rams’ defense opted to play dime on slightly more than half of their plays last week, well above their season average, as a means to incentivize the Seahawks to run the ball.
• I don’t see the point of any Zach Charbonnet run, but the Seahawks decided to give him 11 carries anyway for 37 scoreless yards.
• We did at least get five more carries and routes for Kenneth Walker relative to Charbonnet, and coach speak is in our favor moving forward, as Walker has just now apparently earned more work.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba unsurprisingly led the way with 12 targets, though AJ Barner had a career day with 10, Cooper Kupp seven, and no other Seahawk exceeded four.
• My guess is we see the Seahawks establish the run even harder this week as massive favorites against a terrible Titans’ defense.
• JSN and Walker are my favorite starts this week, with Barner certainly on my radar, as not many TEs can even earn 10 targets in a game.

Titans (13.5 Implied Points)

• The Titans’ schedule is miserable.
• They’ve recently played the Colts, Chargers, and Texans prior to the Seahawks this week.
• And they have the Jaguars and Browns in Weeks 12 and 13.
• This week, the Seahawks’ defense is 5th overall in efficiency, including 6th against the pass and 1st against the run.
• That explains the Titans’ brutally low 13.5 implied points.
• Cam Ward wasn’t awful last week by the advanced numbers, hitting 0.03 EPA per play with -2.0% CPOE on a 7.2-yard aDoT.
• But that production was highly reliant on receiver yards after the catch, rather than air yards.
• The targets were really spread around, with Van Jefferson, Elic Ayomanor, and Tyjae Spears leading the way.
• The RB work was also split, with Tony Pollard taking the clear carry lead but splitting the routes with Spears.
• If I played in a league that requires you to start a Titan, I guess I’d pick Spears but I’d rather just not play any Titans player like I’ve said for over a month now.

Patriots at Bengals (O/U 48.5, NE -8.5)

Patriots (28.5 Implied Points)

• Drake Maye had another efficient game in Week 11, hitting 0.29 EPA per play with 13.5% CPOE on a very-high 11.7-yard aDoT.
• He’s one of a very small number of QBs earning more value through the air rather than receiver YAC.
• Stefon Diggs dominated the targets last week with 11.
• Mack Hollins, Hunter Henry, and TreVeyon Henderson each earned five targets, while no other Patriot exceeded three.
• Henderson also dominated the RB work with Rhamondre Stevenson out, taking 19 of the 22 RB carries and running 31 of the team’s 37 routes.
• My assumption is Stevenson is back this week, but it’d be hard to put the Henderson toothpaste back in the tube after consecutive multi-TD games.
• Maye, Diggs, and Henderson are clear starts to me this week against the league’s worst defense.

Bengals (20.0 Implied Points)

• It was a rough game for the Bengals last week, hitting only a 31% success rate with 7th-percentile passing efficiency.
• Ja’Marr Chase led the way with nine targets but only turned those into three receptions for 30 yards.
• That was easily Chase’s worst fantasy day since Week 1, and he’ll miss this game against the Patriots due to suspension.
• After Chase, Tee Higgins earned eight targets last week, Chase Brown seven, and Noah Fant five.
• Chase Brown has dominated the RB work with Samaje Perine injured, and last week he took 18 of the 22 RB carries and crucially ran 34 of the team’s 41 routes.
• My assumption is Perine is back this week, hurting Brown’s involvement and ceiling, but the Bengals are going to need Brown this week with Chase sidelined.
• This also might be the last Joe Flacco game of the season, with Joe Burrow potentially back in Week 13.
• This Patriots’ defense is no joke, as they’re 9th in overall efficiency, including 12th against the pass and fifth against the run.
• Higgins and Brown remain clear starts to me in Chase’s absence, but I’m not super excited about any other Bengal this week.

Jets at Ravens (O/U 44.5, BAL -14.0)

Jets (15.25 Implied Points)

• The Jets actually had a 48.2% success rate last week, which is really good for them!
• But Justin Fields ultimately only hit -0.05 EPA per play with -4.9% CPOE on a 7.9-yard aDoT.
• Fields lost value through the air but picked up a ton of expected points on runs and scrambles, which isn’t a surprise to anyone who’s watched Fields play.
• Regardless, the Jets have been trying to bench him, with the loss to the Patriots enough of a reason to switch to Tyrod Taylor going forward.
• New-Jet Adonai Mitchell led the team with six targets last week, followed by five for Jeremy Ruckert, with no one else exceeding four.
• Breece Hall took 14 of the team’s 16 carries and ran 18 routes to Isaiah Davis’ 11.
• I think Mitchell is the only other Jet worth rostering in fantasy besides Hall, but it’s tough to get too excited about anyone in this pass game, with Hall the only Jet I’d be willing to start this week.

Ravens (29.25 Implied Points)

• Week 11 was an uncharacteristically poor passing game for the Ravens.
• They hit only 6th-percentile efficiency with Lamar Jackson’s -0.39 EPA per play and -8.8% CPOE.
• But a giant factor hurting Jackson’s efficiency was the two interceptions, both of which were tipped picks, with one off a receiver’s hands and another off a defensive lineman.
• Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews each earned five targets, with no other Raven exceeding four.
• Andrews is still a tough sell for me because he only ran 21 of the team’s 31 routes, with Isaiah Likely running 19 himself.
• But Andrews’ redzone role means he could spike in any given week; I just wouldn’t expect another 35-yard rushing TD.
• Derrick Henry took 18 of the RB carries but split the routes with both Keaton Mitchell and Rasheen Ali, as Justice Hill was sidelined with an injury.
• Jackson, Henry, and Flowers remain clear starts, with Andrews a bet on a TD.
• But there are worse bets with the Ravens’ 29.25 implied points.

Colts at Chiefs (O/U 50.5, KC -3.0)

Colts (23.75 Implied Points)

• Daniel Jones had two consecutive games of negative EPA per play prior to the bye.
• Those games lowered the Colts’ passing EPA per play down to 9th in the league.
• But their rush EPA is so utterly dominant that they’re still the most efficient offense in the league.
• The Chiefs’ pass defense is 11th in EPA per play allowed but significantly worse in success rate, explosives, and CPOE.
• Opponents tend to pass on the Chiefs with the lowest aDoT in the league.
• With that context in mind, I’d expect a bounce back in passing efficiency for the Colts with a focus on Tyler Warren, who earned 36% of team targets in the game prior to the bye.

Chiefs (26.75 Implied Points)

• In a league where defenses are pressuring opponents to run the ball, the Chiefs are going in the complete opposite direction, hitting a massive 17.4% PROE last week.
• They ended the game with 43 targets compared to only 13 carries.
• But the passing game was just above average last week against one of the best defenses in the league.
• Patrick Mahomes finished the day with 0.13 EPA per play and -2.8% CPOE on a 7.2-yard aDoT.
• Even that number is a bit juiced for Mahomes by some big defensive penalties and receiver yards after the catch.
• The main issues were with the deep ball, as the Chiefs completed only three of 12 passes thrown with 10+ air yards, for 92 yards and an interception.
• That hurts the entire offense, but especially Xavier Worthy.
• And the Colts’ defense has done well this year, limiting explosive passes.
• That makes both Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice the better starts this week, especially because both earned 9+ targets against the Broncos.
• And I don’t know Isiah Pacheco’s availability at the time I’m writing, but if he sits again, Kareem Hunt is a reasonable start as he took every RB carry for the Chiefs last week and ran 32 of the team’s 49 routes.
• He’s also expected to keep the goal-line role even if Pacheco is back.

Vikings at Packers (O/U 40.5, GB -6.5)

Vikings (17.0 Implied Points)

• The Vikings are typically a reasonably pass-heavy team, but not with JJ McCarthy under center.
• They ended last week with -13.8% PROE, which makes sense because they only hit 7th-percentile passing efficiency.
• There aren’t many positives from McCarthy’s -0.37 EPA per play and -15.2% CPOE, with McCarthy now dead-last among qualifying QBs in EPA per play on the season.
• A justifiably frustrated Justin Jefferson led the team with nine targets last week, followed by seven for Jordan Addison and five for TJ Hockenson.
• Those were the only Vikings with more than two targets.
• And the RB work was similarly concentrated, with Aaron Jones taking 16 carries to Jordan Mason’s six, and running 18 routes to Mason’s three.
• I don’t think there’s much else to do other than start Jefferson, but I can’t say I’m excited to play any other Viking with 17 implied points against a good Packers’ defense.

Packers (23.5 Implied Points)

• The Packers are once again 1st in passing efficiency after Jordan Love’s 0.39 EPA per play last week.
• It was on relatively low volume, though, as they only had 22 team targets.
• Romeo Doubs led the way with seven, followed by Christian Watson’s five, and no other Packer exceeded two.
• I think both are starts going forward, given the state of the Packers’ pass catchers.
• Josh Jacobs only played 12 snaps in the game due to a knee contusion, and my assumption at this point is that he sits in Week 12.
• If that’s the case, Emanuel Wilson is a clear start as he was the workhorse RB for the Packers after Jacobs left.
• The Vikings have a much stronger pass defense than run defense, and opponents run on the Vikings at the 2nd-highest rate versus expectation in the league.
• If you’re still starting Luke Musgrave, hoping he’s Tucker Kraft, this is your sign to please stop it.
• Musgrave was basically benched for John FitzPatrick at the end of last week, and ultimately split the routes with him and Josh Whyle.
• I’m a sicko for this stuff, and I still thought Whyle was on the Titans; not a great sign to lose routes to him.

Steelers at Bears (O/U 45.5, CHI -3.0)

Steelers (21.25 Implied Points)

• The Steelers hit 83rd-percentile passing efficiency last week.
• But the required context for that is they played the Bengals.
• Aaron Rodgers was only at 0.14 EPA per play but left the game with an injured wrist, and my assumption is that he sits this week.
• Mason Rudolph hit a very impressive 0.56 EPA per play, but with his 3.2-yard aDoT, it’s abundantly clear that efficiency was all through receiver YAC.
• This Bears defense allows the highest rate of explosive pass plays in the league, but the Steelers are not well suited to take advantage of that with an aDoT this low.
• DK Metcalf and Jaylen Warren (assuming he’s active) are the only two Steelers I’d be willing to start in fantasy as both earned eight targets last week.
• I think we’ll see a lot of Rudolph check-downs to Warren again.
• Darnell Washington is at least worth keeping an eye on, as he’s hit 5+ targets in four of his last six games, and played a lot more of the 11-personnel snaps last week.
• There’s just no guarantee that role continues for him going forward.

Bears (24.25 Implied Points)

• It was another slightly below average game for Caleb Williams and the Bears’ passing attack last week, hitting 40th-percentile efficiency.
• They continue to lean on the run game, hitting -6.1% PROE, which led to 37 carries versus 27 targets.
• Rome Odunze led the way with six targets, while Luther Burden and Cole Kmet each earned five, Colston Loveland four, and no other Bear exceeded three.
• Burden has finally won the slot job and played in 3-WR sets ahead of Olamide Zaccheaus for the first time this season, according to PFF.
• But that still only meant 22 of the team’s 36 routes, making Rome Odunze the only Bears’ pass catcher I’m confidently starting each week.
• D'Andre Swift, unfortunately, remains the RB you want in Chicago, taking 21 carries to Kyle Monangai’s 12, but they did split the routes evenly.
• It’s a particularly good matchup for the RBs this week as the Steelers are 27th in defensive rushing EPA.

Jaguars at Cardinals (O/U 47.5, JAX -2.5)

Jaguars (25.0 Implied Points)

• The Jaguars put it on the Chargers last week, hitting a massive 61.4% success rate.
• Almost more impressive was the fact that Trevor Lawrence didn’t have crushingly negative CPOE, hitting just -1.6% last week along with 0.21 EPA per play.
• They were up big for most of the game, leaning heavily into the run with -7.0% PROE and 47 carries.
• Jakobi Meyers led the team with six targets as he was the only pass catcher left standing.
• My assumption is that Brian Thomas Jr plays this week, and he’d be my preferred start out of this WR room.
• Bhayshul Tuten was actually leading Travis Etienne in carries 15 to 12, but then Tuten hurt his ankle in the 4th quarter and didn’t return.
• It’s another extremely frustrating turn for King Tuten fans, and I’m assuming at this point that Tuten sits in this one.
• It’s a good matchup for essentially everyone on the Jags against this poor Cardinals’ defense.

Cardinals (22.5 Implied Points)

• The Cardinals can read these tables as well and seem to be aware that they cannot run the ball.
• They’re bottom-six in rushing efficiency, success rate, and explosive run rate.
• So, they’re letting Jacoby Brissett chuck it, hitting 7.1% PROE last week and moving them up to 2nd on the season.
• Brissett’s advanced stats were ok last week, hitting 0.09 EPA per play with 12.4% CPOE on a 6.8-yard aDoT.
• The big headline you’ve probably seen is that Brissett set a regular-season record with 47 completions last week.
• That led to one of the most improbable stat lines of the season: 15 receptions for Michael Wilson, or eight more than Marvin Harrison Jr. has ever caught in a game.
• But the Cardinals kept shooting themselves in the foot.
• They threw an interception that was returned for 64 yards, gave up a 98-yard kickoff return, missed a field goal, and were flagged for an astounding 17 penalties.
• As I mentioned in the intro, Trey McBride is on an absolute heater and is providing league-winning separation at the TE position.
• He’s a must-start, and you’re also starting MHJ assuming he’s back this week.
• You can’t reasonably start any of these RBs until Trey Benson is back, which I’m assuming is Week 13 rather than this week.

Browns at Raiders (O/U 36.5, LV -3.0)

Browns (16.75 Implied Points)

• I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I hope Dillon Gabriel starts this week for the Browns.
• That’s my assumption, but he’ll have to clear the concussion protocol first.
• Gabriel had an awful -0.32 EPA per play on his 13 plays prior to injury last week.
• But Shedeur Sanders was twice as bad with -0.67 EPA per play and -34.8% CPOE, which is the lowest number I can ever remember seeing.
• I wouldn’t start any Brown if Sanders is the starting QB.
• I guess I’d be willing to look at Jerry Jeudy and Quinshon Judkins if it’s Gabriel.
• Jeudy had seven targets last week, and Judkins took 17 of the team’s 19 RB carries last week.
• But it’s the same story every week with Judkins, as he only ran 13 of the team’s 33 routes and doesn’t have redzone opportunities on one of the worst offenses in the league.
• The Raiders’ defense is mostly below-average across the board, but this offense is so bad that I don’t think any matchup really matters.

Raiders (19.75 Implied Points)

• Most of Bluesky was laughing at the Raiders on Monday night as they ended the game with 39 targets to only 9 carries, good enough for a very high 13.1% PROE.
• But I kind of got it because the Raiders are dead-last in rushing efficiency.
• It’s fair to question why they didn’t use their 6th-overall draft pick more in the ground game, but the real question is why this awful team took an RB at six overall in the first place?
• Geno Smith was bad, ending the day with -0.21 EPA per play and -3.2% CPOE on a low 5.2-yard aDoT.
• The killer for the Raiders was finishing drives as they had the ball in Cowboys’ territory on six of their first seven drives, but they couldn’t convert those drives into meaningful points.
• Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty remain fantasy starts, as Bowers dominated the targets with 12, while Jeanty earned eight along with 75% of the team’s RB carries.
• But expectations should generally be low this week against one of the best defenses in the league.

Eagles at Cowboys (O/U 48.5, PHI -3.5)

Eagles (26.0 Implied Points)

• It was another brutal win for the Eagles last week.
• The offense was bad by any measure, hitting only a 36.5% success rate, 16th-percentile pass efficiency, and 36th-percentile rush efficiency.
• Jalen Hurts ended the day with -0.22 EPA per play and -9.8% CPOE on a very-high 12.9-yard aDoT.
• Without one of the more impressive defensive performances I’ve seen this season, the Eagles would’ve easily lost this game.
• There were times it was clear they were force-feeding AJ Brown targets, given his comments to the media, and he ended the day with 12 targets compared to five for DeVonta Smith and four for Dallas Goedert.
• But we still have an extremely concentrated offense where these are the only pass catchers we’re interested in for fantasy.
• And Saquon Barkley dominated the RB work per usual, taking 25 of the 29 RB carries and running 23 of the team’s 32 routes.
• If you’re someone who believes this offense will turn things around, Barkley is a clear buy, especially because the Eagles play the Bills’ terrible run defense during championship week.
• And it’s a similar story this week against a Cowboys defense that is generally awful across the board.

Cowboys (22.5 Implied Points)

• It was a fantastic game for the Cowboys’ passing attack last week, hitting 81st-percentile efficiency.
• Dak Prescott ended the day with 0.31 EPA per play and 8.7% CPOE.
• George Pickens would’ve been a clear buy candidate if he failed to score a TD last week, because that would’ve been a four-game scoreless streak after a five-game TD streak earlier this season.
• But he turned his 11 targets into a 9/144/1 line, meaning the buy window slammed shut.
• He leads all WRs in EPA per target this season.
• CeeDee Lamb turned his seven targets into a 5/66/1 line, which is sub-par for his standards, but we at least got the TD.
• And Javonte Williams dominated the RB work like usual, taking 22 of the 26 RB carries and running 22 of the team’s 34 routes.
• This Eagles defense just put the hammer on the Lions last week, but I’d still be willing to start my typical Cowboys.

Falcons at Saints (O/U 39.5, NO -1.5)

Falcons (19.0 Implied Points)

• Michael Penix was fantastic on limited volume last week, hitting a massive 0.65 EPA per play with 15.6% CPOE on an 8.1-yard aDoT.
• But he’s now expected to miss the rest of the season with a knee injury.
• Kirk Cousins was bad as his replacement, hitting -0.13 EPA per play.
• Cousins’ -27.5% CPOE would’ve been the lowest I’ve ever seen if it wasn’t for Jared Goff and Shedeur Sanders this week.
• The Falcons scored only six points on Cousins’ five drives, and I have real concerns about the health of this offense moving forward.
• Drake London led the team with nine targets, and Bijan Robinson took 23 of the 26 RB carries and earned five targets himself.
• We just need Cousins to be good enough to get those two players the ball, but I’m still skeptical.
• The Saints’ run defense is much stronger than their pass defense, so it’s a good first matchup for Cousins at least.
• You’re only starting Robinson confidently this wee,k given the London injury, and we’re hoping for competent QB play from Cousins.
• Safe to say it’s a bad sign that they’re expected to lose to the Saints, though.

Saints (20.5 Implied Points)

• Credit to Tyler Shough, who was more than competent against the Panthers prior to their bye.
• He ended that game with 282 passing yards on 27 attempts (10.4 yards per attempt) and two TDs.
• That’s enough to make Chris Olave a start, as he had his 2nd-best fantasy game of the season in Week 10 while dominating the Saints in targets with eight.
• Alvin Kamara similarly had a bounce-back game, taking 22 of the team’s 26 RB carries and running 16 routes.
• The Falcons’ pass defense is average on the season, and their run defense is bottom-five in efficiency and success rate.
• I’d be willing to start both Olave and Kamara with the hope that Shough continues to build on his game against the Panthers.

Buccaneers at Rams (O/U 49.5, LAR -6.5)

Buccaneers (21.5 Implied Points)

• The Buccaneers are also clearly fans of this article series, because they went extremely run-heavy last week against a terrible Bills’ run defense, hitting -11.9% PROE.
• And they were rewarded with 90th-percentile rushing efficiency.
• The Bucs went with the hot hand in Sean Tucker, who led the team with 19 carries to Rachaad White’s 10, but only ran nine routes to White’s 22.
• Tucker was fantastic on his work, and my assumption is he did enough to keep the lion’s share of carries, assuming Bucky Irving is not back this week.
• But it’s a brutal matchup against a Rams’ run defense that is 3rd in EPA per play, 7th in success rate, and 10th in explosive run rate allowed.
• It was a below-average game from Baker Mayfield last week, finishing the day with 0.01 EPA per play and -8.3% CPOE.
• We did at least get nine targets to Emeka Egbuka, who is the only pass catcher I’m interested in starting this week against the 2nd-most efficient pass defense in the league.

Rams (28.0 Implied Points)

• It was a rough week for the Rams’ passing attack last week against one of the best defenses in the league.
• They ended the day with only 8th-percentile pass efficiency, as Matthew Stafford hit -0.14 EPA per play with -16.6% CPOE on a low 5.2-yard aDoT.
• The Rams failed on nine of their 11 3rd-down conversion attempts, which put a ceiling on this typically high-powered offense.
• Like the Eagles, we know exactly who to start at least, with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams each earning eight targets and no other Ram exceeding two.
• The RB situation also got a bit cleaner as the Rams abandoned their drive-by-drive rotation in the 2nd half because Kyren Williams was clearly outplaying Blake Corum (shoutout to the haters, it was a great call).
• Nacua, Adams, and Williams are each top-10 at their respective positions in expected fantasy points per game.
• All three are must-starts each week, with no one else fantasy viable at this point.
• And I’d expect a pass-heavy approach by the Rams in this one, as they’re 3rd in PROE on the season, the Bucs have a much stronger run defense than pass defense, and opponents pass on the Bucs at the 5th-highest rate in the league.

Panthers at 49ers (O/U 48.5, SF -7.0)

Panthers (20.75 Implied Points)

• It was undeniably a great game for Bryce Young last week, putting up 448 passing yards and 3 TDs on the box score.
• The advanced numbers are still good but not quite as positive, with Young hitting 0.28 EPA per play with only 2.2% CPOE on a low 6.2-yard aDoT.
• The five sacks really dinged his EPA number.
• But they leaned into the pass (for them), hitting only -1.3% PROE, which is about five percentage points higher than their average.
• Tetairoa McMillan looked fantastic last week, leading the team with 10 targets and scoring twice.
• Xavier Legette was 2nd on the team with eight targets, but he did leave the game in the 4th quarter with a hip injury and didn’t return.
• Rico Dowdle continues to dominate the RB work, taking 19 of the 24 RB carries and running 36 of the team’s 51 routes.
• This 49ers defense is extremely injured, but looked much better last week against the Cardinals.
• I’m still confidently starting both McMillan and Dowdle this week.

49ers (27.75 Implied Points)

• Brock Purdy was very good in his return last week, averaging 7.7 yards per attempt with three TD passes, no interceptions, and one sack.
• I do think he was a bit lucky to avoid any picks because he was charted with two turnover-worthy throws by PFF.
• The 49ers also struggled a bit on converting 3rd downs.
• But I don’t want to nitpick too much as it was an 80th-percentile pass efficiency day and the offense as a whole was fantastic with a 56.1% success rate.
• Ricky Pearsall also returned to action last week but turned his two targets into zero yards.
• As mentioned in the intro, I’m a big Jauan Jennings fan relative to Pearsall, but Pearsall is the more explosive player and he gets a Bears’ defense allowing the highest rate of explosive passes during fantasy championship week.
• Hard to think of a better time to acquire him than after a zero-yard game.
• There were only 23 targets to go around with George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, and Christian McCaffrey essentially splitting them.
• Brian Robinson continues to be involved in the run game, taking eight carries last week, but CMC still had 13 carries and ran 20 routes.
• Pearsall is best left on your bench until we see more, but CMC and Kittle are must-starts, and Jennings is definitely still viable against a below-average Panthers’ pass defense.