Hoopes There It Is: Week 13 Game Preview

Nov 26, 2025

Yannick Peterhans / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

It’s been a while since we’ve checked in on pass rate over expectation (PROE). The Chiefs are back in their rightful place atop the PROE leaderboard. But they’re an interesting team to bring up because they’ve been negative in PROE in two of their last three games. Those are the only two games this season where they’ve passed at a rate below expectation. They find themselves in the inconsistent quadrant in the graph below because here are their last three games: -4.8%, +17.4% (!), and -1.8% against the Colts. I’d be surprised if the negative PROEs become a trend because, while they get successful run plays, they’re 28th in the league in explosive run rate. That will happen when you're starting Kareem Hunt at RB.

I bring up PROE because we’re looking for offenses with a lot of passing volume for fantasy football. But we also want that volume to be married with efficiency. And we’re seeing that in 2025 from a lot of older, pocket-passing-type QBs. The graph below shows offensive efficiency via EPA on the x-axis and offensive plays per game on the y-axis. When you combine the two graphs above, teams like the Cardinals and Cowboys stand out. Teams that are at or near the top of the league in plays and are extremely consistent in their pass-first approach. They have bad defenses and are letting their older, pocket-passing QB throw them into games. It’s definitely a big element of this 2025 season, and I think it makes investing in offenses like these critical. And I think we can add in teams like the Bengals and the Rams to this idea. Let’s get to the Week 13 game previews!

Packers at Lions (Over/Under 48.5, Lions favored by 2.5 points)

Packers (23.0 Implied Points)

• The Packers leaned heavily into the run last week, as they often do, hitting -9.9% PROE and 41 carries compared to 20 targets.
• They were once again very efficient passing on low volume, and still lead the league in passing EPA per play.
• But it’s tough for the pass catchers to get by with only 20 team targets.
• Christian Watson dominated on that front last week, earning seven targets compared to four for Dontayvion Wicks, with no other Packer exceeding two.
• Emanuel Wilson was one of the Packers with two targets, which is extremely impressive because he only ran three routes.
• He was the bellcow back with Josh Jacobs sidelined, and is a clear start if Jacobs misses on a short week, given his massive volume potential.
• The Luke Musgrave slide down the depth chart continued last week, as he was third among TEs on his own team with only nine routes.
• The Lions are above-average to elite in most defensive passing stats, but they do give up a lot of explosive passes, and opponents have passed on them with the highest average target depth in the league.
• Especially with Watson’s 35% target share last week and his success on downfield routes in the past, I’d be confidently starting him this week.
• But beyond Jacobs/Wilson (depending on health) and Watson, it’s tough to feel great about anyone else for fantasy despite the efficiency of the offense.
• I’ll be keeping an eye on the injury statuses of both Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden, though.

Lions (25.5 Implied Points)

• The Lions have been slightly more pass-heavy (for them) in recent weeks, and they were only -0.9% in PROE last week.
• But they literally hit 100th-percentile rushing efficiency.
• Playing against the worst run defense in the league, the Lions hit the highest designed-run efficiency for any offense since 2020.
• Jahmyr Gibbs had the most rushing EPA for any player since Justin Fields in 2022.
• Jared Goff struggled in comparison with -0.13 EPA per play and a -2.9% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) on a low 5.3-yard average target depth.
• Even if the efficiency was poor, the targets were extremely concentrated, with Amon-Ra St. Brown earning 13, Gibbs 12, and no other Lion exceeding four.
• After three fantastic Jameson Williams games, we got a stinky goose on three targets.
• I don’t envy rankers having to place Williams among other WRs, because he’s either going to score 20 PPR points or zero, and you’re probably going to be wrong.
• This seems like a poor matchup for Williams, though, as the Packers defense is 1st in limiting explosive passes and opponents pass on them with the 3rd-lowest aDoT in the league.
• The Lions are also projected for 25.5 points by the sportsbooks, which is four or so points below their typical number.
• St. Brown and Gibbs are obvious starts every week, with Williams dependent on your other options and your risk tolerance.

Chiefs at Cowboys (O/U 52.5, KC -3.5)

Chiefs (28.0 Implied Points)

• As mentioned in the intro, the Chiefs hit -1.8% PROE last week, which is very low for them as they lead the league in PROE on the season.
• That pass rate, combined with their 7th-fastest neutral pace, means the Chiefs are 2nd in the league in offensive plays per game.
• For example, last week the Chiefs had 43 team targets, more than double the number of the Packers, as an example.
• It’s hard to overstate how important that is for the pass catchers in fantasy.
• This week, we have a still-motivated Chiefs team that needs to win to secure a playoff spot against a Cowboys defense that has played better lately but is still bottom-eight in most stats.
• Rashee Rice dominated last week with 12 targets, Xavier Worthy earned eight, Travis Kelce five, with no one else exceeding four.
• All three are starts with 28 implied points, the volume we’ve seen in the offense, and the still-poor state of the Cowboys’ defense.
• Kareem Hunt, without Isiah Pacheco last week, took 30 of the 36 RB carries and ran 32 of the team’s 54 routes.
• But Pacheco is back this week, and I’d expect this backfield to return to the ugly mess we saw earlier in the season.
• Hunt is now just a TD bet as he should maintain his goal-line role going forward.

Cowboys (24.5 Implied Points)

• Dak Prescott hit 0.12 EPA per play last week with 1.5% CPOE on a very-high 10.2-yard aDoT against an elite Eagles defense.
• Their 56th-percentile passing efficiency was enough to get the come-from-behind win and overcome their 19th-percentile rushing efficiency.
• CeeDee Lamb led the team with 11 targets, but it was George Pickens who delivered splash plays on his nine targets.
• Pickens leads all receivers with 40+ targets in the NFL in EPA per target.
• Unfortunately, Pickens was estimated not to practice on Monday with knee and calf injuries, and I don’t know his game status at the time I’m writing.
• I’d be more interested in Jake Ferguson if Pickens sits, as Ferguson has earned between five and seven targets in each of his last three games.
• Javonte Williams remains a clear start as he dominated the work last week with 20 of the team’s 23 RB carries, while running 23 of the team’s 41 routes.
• This Chiefs’ defense is mostly average across the board, but they do limit opponents to short pass attempts and stop explosive runs.
• Their secondary basically prevented Daniel Jones from attempting a pass down the field last week.
• And the explosive run element is already the weakness of the Cowboys’ offense.

Bengals at Ravens (O/U 51.5, BAL -7.0)

Bengals (22.25 Implied Points)

• It was a rough final game for Joe Flacco, hitting -0.31 EPA per play with -7% CPOE.
• But we don’t need to dwell on last week too much, as the Bengals are getting Joe Burrow back from injury and Ja’Marr Chase back from suspension in this one.
• My guess is we start seeing the Bengals move deeper into the “pass-heavy consistent” quadrant of the PROE graph from the intro.
• But the Bengals will be without Tee Higgins this week as he’s already been ruled out with a concussion on a short week.
• Chase is set up to be absolutely peppered with targets this week.
• And I guess Mike Gesicki is also viable after earning six targets last week, and the Bengals are missing Higgins in this one.
• Chase Brown is also a clear start after dominating the team with 19 of 21 RB carries and running 30 of the team’s 39 routes last week.
• But a strong word of caution for Brown is that this usage has occurred with Samaje Perine sidelined, and Perine is expected back this week.
• The Bengals like to use Perine more than anyone reasonably wants.
• The Ravens’ defense has been playing better lately, partially explaining the seven-point spread, but they’re still below-average on the season.

Ravens (29.25 Implied Points)

• There’s no better medicine for an underperforming offense than getting to play the Bengals.
• The Bengals’ defense is bottom-three in passing EPA per play, passing success rate, explosive pass rate, sack rate, rushing EPA per play, and rushing success rate.
• Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and Zay Flowers are already weekly starts, but especially against this defense.
• A word of caution, though, as it’s clear that injuries are limiting Jackson’s effectiveness, despite what the Ravens want us to believe.
• You’re telling me Jackson has totaled 21 rushing yards on 11 carries over his last two games, and he’s not being hampered by injuries?
• If you believe that, then I’d invite you to join my fantasy leagues.
• Mark Andrews only earned three targets last week, catching just one pass for nine yards, but I think he’s a viable option this week.
• I’m typically very reluctant to buy into defensive fantasy point trends for TEs because they’re usually explained by the specific TEs that defense happened to play.
• But it’s increasingly difficult to ignore the TE splits for the Bengals’ defense.
• The graph below is only updated through Week 11, but at that point, the Bengals had given up the most pass attempts to TEs and were near the worst in efficiency allowed on those attempts.
• On the season, the Bengals have allowed 13 TDs to opposing TEs, with the next closest team only allowing seven.
• Starting Mark Andrews is always a bet on a TD at this stage in his career, but I think it’s a reasonable bet this week.

Bears at Eagles (O/U 44.5, PHI -7.0)

Bears (18.75 Implied Points)

• The Bears are 30th in CPOE on the season, as we’ve seen accuracy issues for Caleb Williams throughout the year.
• But they’re 12th in passing EPA because of explosive passes and sack avoidance.
• That last part is a huge change for Williams compared to last year, and we can’t overstate how important that improvement has been for the health of the offense.
• Williams only took one sack last week, but it was a doozy, as TJ Watt stripped-sacked him for a fumble-6 in the end zone.
• He ended the day completing only 54% of his passes, but it was enough to get the win over the Steelers.
• Rome Odunze led the way with nine targets last week, followed by seven for DJ Moore, five for both rookies Luther Burden and Colston Loveland, and no one else exceeded one.
• Those are the four pass catchers worth considering in fantasy, as Burden has put an end to the Olamide Zaccheaus experience and Loveland hit his highest route participation rate of any game when Cole Kmet was healthy, according to PFF.
• This Eagles’ defense is no joke, though, explaining the only 19 implied points for the offense.
• The Eagles are 4th-best in limiting completions relative to expectation, which is already the weakness of the Bears’ passing attack.
• It’d be tough to bench Odunze and Moore given the volume for Odunze and Moore’s multi-TD game last week, but I would temper our expectations in this one.
• It’s a mess at RB as Kyle Monangai played more offensive snaps than D’Andre Swift last week for the first time in a game when they were both active, according to PFF.
• But it’s another RB committee where they’re splitting drives, and Monangai’s drives just happened to have more plays.
• If you can, I’d look elsewhere at RB this week.

Eagles (25.75 Implied Points)

• The Eagles’ PROE rollercoaster continued last week, as they hit +11.4% against the Cowboys.
• They now lead the entire league in PROE variance as they’ve had multiple positive and negative double-digit PROE weeks without an injury to Jalen Hurts or Saquon Barkley.
• They ended last week with 35 targets to only 15 carries, with Barkley only handling 10 of them.
• As it is every week, the offense was at least concentrated, with both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith earning 10 targets, Saquon Barkley nine, and no one else exceeding two.
• If I had to guess, I would expect the Eagles to be on the pass-heavy side moving forward, as last week’s PROE was perhaps an acknowledgement that they cannot run the ball right now.
• Barkley has been held under 3.2 yards per carry in four of his last five games.
• But the passing game has been volatile this season, as the Eagles are about average in efficiency but 24th in success rate because they’re getting by on deep explosives.
• It’s a great matchup for everyone on the Eagles this week, though, as the Bears’ defense is bottom-eight in a ton of metrics.
• The key one in my view is that they allow the highest rate of explosive pass attempts in the league, so Brown and Smith fireworks are on the Thanksgiving leftover menu.

Texans at Colts (O/U 44.5, IND -4.5)

Texans (20.0 Implied Points)

• After performing pretty well in previous weeks, it was a rough final game for Davis Mills, hitting -0.18 EPA per play with -7.5% CPOE on a 7.7-yard aDoT.
• We don’t need to dwell on it too much because the Texans get CJ Stroud back for this game.
• It was a breakout game for Jayden Higgins last week, though, leading the team with nine targets on only 21 of the team’s 31 routes.
• He was often used as the lone WR in single WR sets, something the Texans did more last week than in all of their previous games combined, according to PFF.
• Assuming that’s not a sustained trend, I’d expect those targets to drop going forward when he has to compete with Nico Collins for a target on the same play.
• Christian Kirk was 2nd on the team in targets last week and is the clear slot WR you want in Houston, as much as I’d personally like that to be Jaylin Noel.
• Collins is the only must-start pass catcher on the Texans, though Kirk is viable.
• And Woody Marks is the clear RB you want, as he led Nick Chubb in carries last week, 16 to six, and routes 15 to three.
• The Colts’ pass defense is their strength, and their weakness is their rushing success rate allowed.
• Fortunately for the Colts, the Texans are near the bottom of the league in every rushing category.

Colts (24.5 Implied Points)

• Last week’s 14.7% PROE was easily the highest of the Colts’ season.
• And it made some sense because they ended the day with only 23rd-percentile rushing efficiency, compared to the near 100th-percentile we’re used to with Jonathan Taylor.
• Daniel Jones also attacked the short areas of the field like opponents of the Chiefs typically do.
• That meant that Tyler Warren and Josh Downs were 2nd and 3rd on the team in targets last week.
• When they did run, Taylor unsurprisingly dominated the work, taking every RB carry and running 25 of the team’s 33 routes.
• You don’t need me to tell you to start Taylor.
• But otherwise, we really need to temper our expectations against one of the best defenses in the league.
• The Texans are top-three in pass efficiency, pass success rate, CPOE allowed, and explosive run rate.
• Opponents tend to attempt deeper passes on the Texans, meaning that we could see more Alec Pierce in this one than we did last week, but he’s not someone I’m confidently starting.

Jaguars at Titans (O/U 42.5, JAX -6.5)

Jaguars (24.5 Implied Points)

• It was an ugly OT win for the Jaguars last week, as they only hit 20th-percentile passing and 28th-percentile rushing efficiency.
• They turned the ball over four times and went three for 12 on 3rd and 4th downs.
• Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington each earned six targets, but it was especially nice to see Brenton Strange see five looks coming back from injury.
• He led the team with 93 receiving yards, and we should see his snap rate rise moving forward from the 71% we saw last week.
• Strange and Brian Thomas Jr, assuming he returns this week, are the pass catchers I’m most interested in starting on the Jaguars.
• It’s a solid matchup for the Jags’ passing attack as well, as the Titans are bottom-four in defensive pass efficiency and CPOE.
• The Titans’ defense is also 28th in rushing efficiency allowed, but we can’t be confident starting Bhayshul Tuten.
• Travis Etienne played on his highest share of snaps since Week 2.
• Now, that was probably related to Tuten still being banged up, but we have to leave Tuten on fantasy benches until we see his snap rate pop back up.

Titans (18.0 Implied Points)

• Last week was clearly the best game of Cam Ward’s career.
• His 0.15 EPA per play was the first time he had anything better than essentially flat EPA.
• He still took too many sacks, but he didn’t throw an interception, and he was great running the ball.
• He earned 6.5 EPA on his designed runs and scrambles, setting new career highs in rushing attempts and yards and scoring his first rushing TD.
• Ward’s average target depth was extremely low at only 4.6 yards, meaning a lot of his passing value was through receiver yards after the catch, but still, it was a nice game from Ward against one of the best defenses in the league.
• Let’s get Ward some weapons that the majority of the NFL have heard of and see what he can do next year.
• Gunnar Helm tied Chimere Dike for the target lead last week at seven, but he only ran 22 of the team’s 51 routes, or 14 fewer than Chig Okonkwo, meaning we can’t trust him in fantasy.
• I still don’t want to start any Titan, but Ward’s rushing was really nice to see.

Saints at Dolphins (O/U 41.5, MIA -6.0)

Saints (17.75 Implied Points)

• I was hoping Tyler Shough could build on his game against the Panthers, but that’s not what we got last week.
• The offense as a whole only hit a brutal 38.2% success rate, with Shough ending the day at -0.11 EPA per play.
• The passing attack was concentrated at least, with Chris Olave earning a whopping 13 targets, Juwan Johnson seven, Devin Neal six, and no one else exceeding four.
• Olave and Johnson remain viable in fantasy through volume, as the Saints are 11th in plays per game because they operate with the 4th-fastest situation-neutral pace.
• And it’s a great matchup for them this week against a Dolphins’ pass defense that is bottom-four in efficiency, success rate, explosive play rate allowed, and CPOE.
• Neal popped up with those targets because Alvin Kamara went down with a knee injury after only 11 snaps and didn’t return to the game.
• My assumption at the time I’m writing is that Kamara misses this week.
• The main issue with starting Neal is that the Saints gave Taysom Hill 10 carries and five routes, rather than handing the keys fully to Neal.
• The combination of only 18 implied points and the existence of Hill should temper our expectations for Neal this week.

Dolphins (23.75 Implied Points)

• The Dolphins are coming back from their bye after an overtime win against the Commanders.
• They only had 20 team targets in that game, with seven going to Jaylen Waddle, five to De’Von Achane, four to Greg Dulcich, and no one else exceeding three.
• Both Waddle and Achane are weekly starts as they’re talented players who are soaking up almost the entirety of the offense.
• Dulcich isn’t really start-able, but his route rate increased in the game before the bye, as he ran 18 of the team’s 26 routes.
• But the Dolphins opened the 21-day return window for Darren Waller, and Waller coming back means Dulcich is completely off the fantasy radar.
• The Saints’ run defense is much stronger than their pass defense, but opponents opt to run on the Saints at a high rate anyway.
• Again, you’re starting both Waddle and Achane and avoiding anyone else.

49ers at Browns (O/U 37.5, SF -5.5)

49ers (21.5 Implied Points)

• The 49ers went more run-heavy than usual last week, hitting -7.9% PROE vs a season-long average closer to -1%.
• But they were rewarded with 74th-percentile rushing efficiency, with Christian McCaffrey continuing his other-worldly workload with 24 carries and 30 routes.
• It was a tougher day through the air, with Brock Purdy only managing 0.05 EPA per play due to three interceptions.
• George Kittle led the way with nine targets, followed by seven each for CMC and Jauan Jennings, four for Ricky Pearsall, and no one else earning more than two.
• CMC and Kittle are no-brainer starts, Jennings remains viable given his volume and TDs of late, while Pearsall is best left on benches.
• Pearsall’s snap rate at least returned to normal last week, according to PFF.
• It’s a brutal matchup for everyone this week against one of the best defenses in the league.
• The Browns are elite against both the pass and run, but have been susceptible to some explosive plays.
• But the Browns’ defense fully explains the 49ers’ low 21.5 implied-point total.

Browns (16.0 Implied Points)

• It doesn’t look like the sportsbooks are buying the Browns’ 14-point win last week.
• That’s probably because they only hit an absolutely miserable 26.1% success rate.
• Shedeur Sanders’ 0.05 EPA per play looks really great, but it came exclusively through two pass attempts: a 66-yard TD and a 52-yard completion.
• I hate when people take away someone’s best plays and say that without those plays, they would’ve had a bad day.
• But that’s exactly what I’m doing here, because I think it’s reasonable to question if 10% of Sanders’ pass attempts will go for 50+ yards moving forward.
• Quinshon Judkins made my analysis look silly last week as he delivered for fantasy with two TDs.
• I do think that is more a testament to the Raiders’ defense, as Judkins was lined up as the wildcat QB for both of his scores.
• I simply do not know how you allow him to rush for TDs there when the Browns were so transparent with what they were going to do.
• Judkins didn’t earn a target, which isn’t a huge surprise, as he was 3rd among RBs on his own team in routes.
• At 16 implied points, I don’t see the ceiling for Judkins unless the 49ers let him walk into the endzone as the wildcat QB like the Raiders.

Rams at Panthers (O/U 44.5, LAR -10.5)

Rams (27.5 Implied Points)

• This Rams’ offense is concentrated, pass-heavy, and efficient; exactly what we’re looking for in fantasy.
• They hit a very high 13.8% PROE last week, driving them up to 2nd on the season.
• And Matthew Stafford was good last week, but still slightly below his baseline this season.
• Puka Nacua and Davante Adams combined for 18 of the team’s 33 targets, with no other Ram exceeding four on their own.
• And the 1-yard-line TDs to Adams are seemingly here to stay.
• Kyren Williams is once again the clear RB you want in Los Angeles.
• At one point this season, Williams and Blake Corum were rotating drives, but the Rams have since abandoned that approach and leaned on Williams.
• Williams took 23 of the first 35 snaps last week, according to PFF.
• The carry numbers looked close at the end of the game, but that’s only because Corum took over more work in the 2nd half with the Rams blowing out the Buccaneers.
• The Panthers’ defense is pretty good at limiting successful plays but below-average in overall efficiency.
• Nacua, Adams, and Williams are all must-starts.

Panthers (17.0 Implied Points)

• Prior to last week, the Panthers’ highest PROE in a game was about 2%.
• They nearly hit 12% last week.
• And they were rewarded with 10th-percentile passing efficiency, as Bryce Young hit -0.30 EPA per play; ouch.
• Young is now 25th among 31 qualifying QBs in EPA per play this season; I would suspect the Panthers return to hiding Young.
• Tetairoa McMillan paced the team with eight targets, and he’s still the only Panthers’ receiver that I’m interested in starting in fantasy.
• The Panthers only had nine RB carries last week, with Rico Dowdle taking six of them compared to three for Chuba Hubbard.
• Dowdle led Hubbard in routes 19 to 11, but Hubbard took over as the primary 3rd-down back last week, which limits Dowdle’s ceiling if that’s the case going forward.
• It’s a brutal matchup for the entire offense, as the Rams have the most-efficient defense in the league.
• McMillan and Dowdle are startable, but 17 implied points are *low*.

Falcons at Jets (O/U 39.5, ATL -2.5)

Falcons (21.0 Implied Points)

• The Falcons went very run-heavy last week, with -10.8% PROE, likely as a means to hide Kirk Cousins.
• Cousins ended the day with -0.12 EPA per play with 7.2% CPOE on a 7.3-yard aDoT.
• His efficiency was really dinged by a bad pick-6 on low volume.
• The team only had 20 total targets, with Kyle Pitts earning five of them and no one else exceeding three.
• I’m assuming that Drake London sits again this week, making Pitts the only pass catcher that is viable in fantasy.
• 14 carries and two targets just aren’t the volume fantasy drafters need from Bijan Robinson.
• Robinson only ended the day with two more carries than Tyler Allgeier, though at least he ran 13 more routes.
• My assumption is we see more Robinson in closer games, as the Falcons were up by nine points at halftime last week.

Jets (18.5 Implied Points)

• The Jets are easily the most run-heavy team in the NFL.
• Their -9.3% PROE last week is right around their season average.
• And they were rewarded with 2nd-percentile rushing efficiency last week; ouch!
• Breece Hall averaged only 2.8 yards per carry on his 16 attempts and lost 4.6 EPA on a fumble.
• Tyrod Taylor’s efficiency was just below-average, and he was chucking it deep with an average target depth of 10.3 yards.
• Both Adonai Mitchell and John Metchie earned seven targets last week and should be on your watchlist on waivers, especially if the air yards stick in the offense.
• Mason Taylor is the only other pass catcher worth mentioning as he earned five targets last week and played over 80% of the offensive snaps for the first time since Week 7, according to PFF.
• At 18.5 implied points against a strong Falcons’ pass defense, I’d rather keep all of the receivers on my bench or on waivers.

Cardinals at Buccaneers (O/U 44.5, TB -3.0)

Cardinals (20.75 Implied Points)

• The Cardinals were pass-heavy again last week, with their 6.4% PROE right in line with their average since Jacoby Brissett took over as the starting QB.
• They ended last week with 45 team targets, more than double some NFL teams.
• Unfortunately, it was an inefficient day for Brissett, hitting -0.08 EPA per play.
• Michael Wilson continued his improbable streak, earning 14 targets last week compared to 10 for Trey McBride and nine for Greg Dortch.
• I’m assuming Marvin Harrison Jr is back this week, and I’d start Harrison over Wilson, but I’m really curious to see the production split this week.
• Trey McBride might be the player you need to win a fantasy championship, as he’s fully separated from the rest of the TEs in expected points per game and gets the Bengals’ defense in Week 17 that has allowed six more TE TDs than any other NFL team.
• I won’t dwell on the RB split last week, but it was a pretty gross split between Michael Carter and Bam Knight.
• I’m personally throwing Trey Benson back into lineups if he returns this week.
• But it’s a brutal matchup against a Buccaneers team that is much stronger against the run than the pass.
• Because of that, opponents pass on the Bucs at the 2nd-highest rate vs expectation in the league.
• The volume could be really high in this one if Baker Mayfield plays, forcing the Cardinals to keep pace via Brissett dropbacks.

Buccaneers (23.75 Implied Points)

• The Bucs had one of the worst passing games of the season for any team, hitting 1st-percentile efficiency.
• Teddy Bridgewater was awful with -0.58 EPA per play and -16.3% CPOE.
• But Baker Mayfield was slightly worse before hurting his shoulder and leaving the game, with -0.60 EPA per play and -20.5% CPOE.
• Mayfield has a low-grade shoulder sprain on his non-throwing arm, and it sounds like it’s mostly a pain-management issue.
• With that context, I’m assuming Mayfield plays this week.
• Emeka Egbuka is the only receiver I’m confidently starting, though Cade Otton did earn seven targets even if he managed to catch only four of them for 21 yards.
• I’m also putting Bucky Irving back into fantasy lineups with the assumption he returns this week.
• This Cardinals’ defense is below-average across the board, with their strength in limiting explosive passes and successful runs.
• But that’s exactly what this Bucs team does well, assuming Irving is back in the lineup.

Vikings at Seahawks (O/U 41.5, SEA -10.5)

Vikings (15.5 Implied Points)

• The Vikings have the lowest implied-point total this week.
• Yes, that means they’re expected to score fewer points than the Browns, Titans, and Raiders.
• No one told me that by Nine, JJ McCarthy meant his team’s eventual implied point total.
• McCarthy is dragging this entire offense into the abyss, as their passing efficiency was 1st-percentile last week.
• The Vikings turned really run-heavy as a means to hide McCarthy, ultimately only seeing 18 team targets compared to 19 carries.
• I guess you keep starting Justin Jefferson, because at least he earned a third of the targets, but that’s still only six; that would be 15 targets on the Cardinals.
• I’d bench every other Viking going forward until we see *something* from McCarthy.
• That something isn't going to come this week with McCarthy out with a concussion.
• I can’t believe we’ve reached the point where I’m excited to see Max Brosmer.

Seahawks (26.0 Implied Points)

• Sam Darnold returned to his low-volume, high-efficiency ways last week, earning 0.33 EPA per play but with only 24 team targets.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba continued his other-worldly tear, earning 10 of those 24 targets, with no other Seahawks’ receiver viable at this point in fantasy.
• JSN is simply soaking up the entirety of this passing attack, breaking the Seahawks’ season-long receiving-yard record in Week 12.
• Kenneth Walker is the only other Seahawk I’d start in fantasy this week.
• The coaching staff was true to their word and gave Walker 30 snaps to Zach Charbonnet’s 15 last week.
• The Vikings’ pass defense is much stronger than their run defense, and opponents run on the Vikings at the 2nd-highest rate vs expectation in the league.
• With that context, plus the fact that the Seahawks are 10.5-point favorites and run the ball themselves at the 2nd-highest rate in the league, I think we see an absolute ton of Walker in this one.

Raiders at Chargers (O/U 41.5, LAC -10.0)

Raiders (15.75 Implied Points)

• There aren’t many nice things we can say about the Raiders’ performance last week.
• They had a miserable 25.4% success rate, 11th-percentile passing efficiency, and 4th-percentile rushing efficiency.
• Geno Smith had the 3rd-fastest time to throw last week at 2.54, according to Next Gen Stats.
• He managed to take 10 (!) sacks anyway.
• I’m not really sure how you end the day with 54 dropbacks but only 55 receiving yards for Brock Bowers.
• But last week at least, it cost Chip Kelly his job.
• Ashton Jeanty dominated the RB work last week but hurt his ankle at the end of the game.
• I’m assuming Jeanty plays this week, and he and Bowers are the only players I’d consider playing in fantasy.
• 15.75 implied points is insanely low, though, so temper your expectations against a very strong Chargers’ pass defense.

Chargers (25.75 Implied Points)

• The Chargers are coming back from a well-timed bye after getting beaten down by the Jaguars in Week 11.
• The Jaguars dominated the time of possession 38 minutes to 22, and controlled the game through a very high success rate on the ground.
• The Chargers only managed 21 targets and 13 carries, with the combined 34 fantasy opportunities one of the lowest I’ve seen for a full game.
• This is a great spot for a bounce back against a bad Raiders team as 10-point home favorites.
• Omarion Hampton just had his 21-day practice window opened from IR, and my assumption is that he plays this week against the Chargers.
• I’m willing to start most Chargers, including Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, Oronde Gadsden, and Hampton, given the 26 implied points and the state of their opponent.

Bills at Steelers (O/U 47.5, BUF -3.5)

Bills (25.5 Implied Points)

• Josh Allen was bad last week against one of the best defenses in the league.
• There’s nothing great about -0.08 EPA per play with 0.8% CPOE on a very-low 4.7-yard aDoT.
• The Bills hit some explosives, but it wasn’t enough to overcome turnovers and eight sacks.
• And with that aDoT, most of Allen’s passing value came via receiver yards after the catch (147 of his 253 passing yards last week were via YAC).
• Better days are ahead, and I’d expect one of those better days to come versus the Steelers this week.
• I don’t have a good feel for whether Dalton Kincaid will play in this game or not.
• If Kincaid sits, Khalil Shakir is the only Bills’ receiver you can trust; he earned nine targets last week with no other player exceeding four.
• That’s the fourth time in Shakir’s last seven games that he exceeded a 30% target share.
• And James Cook took his usual role, handling nearly every RB carry but splitting the routes with Ty Johnson.
• Allen, Cook, and Shakir are all starts as the Bills look to return to their typical, efficient ways.

Steelers (22.0 Implied Points)

• For one of the first times since Mike Tomlin became head coach of the Steelers, they lost a game the advanced stats say they should’ve won.
• The Steelers had a great 51.4% success rate last week, as they leaned into the run and delivered 89th-percentile rushing efficiency.
• Mason Rudolph was below-average and generated 116 of his 171 passing yards via receiver yards after the catch.
• But they got a big boost from a 55-yard Kenneth Gainwell run that landed the Steelers on the 1-yard line.
• The Bills have a very strong pass defense, so I’m not especially excited to start any pass catcher even if Aaron Rodgers returns.
• I get it if you’re starting DK Metcalf, though.
• It was almost exactly a 50/50 split between Gainwell (37 snaps) and Jaylen Warren (36 snaps) last week.
• It does seem like the Steelers view Gainwell as the better receiver, as he ran 23 routes to Warren’s 11, but Warren is their preferred rusher, as he handled eight more carries than Gainwell.
• Warren should find a lot of success on the ground this week against a very bad Bills’ run defense.

Broncos at Commanders (O/U 43.5, DEN -6.5)

Broncos (25.0 Implied Points)

• The Broncos are coming off their bye and a massive win over the Chiefs in Week 11.
• Troy Franklin led the team in targets with eight, catching only half of them, like he usually does, but did manage 84 receiving yards.
• The rest of the targets were mostly split between Courtland Sutton, Pat Bryant, and Evan Engram.
• As sad as it is, Franklin is my preferred option in this pass game over Sutton at this point.
• It’s a fantastic matchup for the passing offense this week at least, as the Commanders are bottom-four in passing efficiency, success rate, explosive pass rate, and CPOE allowed.
• While we didn’t get a big box score day, RJ Harvey dominated the RB work last week.
• He took 11 of the 17 RB carries and ran 20 of the team’s routes.
• It was still only 38 of the team’s 62 snaps, but he was miles ahead of the eight snaps for both Jaleel McLaughlin and Tyler Badie.
• The Commanders’ run defense is poor, so I’d expect a bigger box score day for Harvey in this one.

Commanders (18.5 Implied Points)

• It’s looking like another week with Marcus Mariota at the helm.
• That, plus a very strong Broncos’ defense, explains the Commanders’ low 18.5 implied points.
• Like the Broncos, the Commanders are coming off their bye following an overtime loss to the Dolphins.
• Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz each earned eight targets, and they’re the only Commanders’ receivers worth considering in fantasy, assuming Terry McLaurin sits again this week.
• McLaurin did participate in a light practice on Monday, so he’s trending up, but I just don’t know his status at the time I’m writing.
• Chris Rodriguez was the lead back last week, taking 15 of the 28 RB carries but only running nine of the team’s 32 routes.
• You can’t trust any RB at this point, with the hope that Rodriguez (or any of the backs) solidifies a larger snap share ahead of fantastic matchups in the fantasy playoffs like the Giants and Cowboys.

Giants at Patriots (O/U 46.5, NE -7.0)

Giants (19.75 Implied Points)

• My assumption is that Jaxson Dart returns from his concussion this week.
• But a few shoutouts to Jameis Winston in the meantime.
• The Giants hit 92nd-percentile passing efficiency last week, and it wasn’t all YAC like most QBs, as Winston had an 11-yard aDoT, with 258 of his 366 passing yards coming via air yards.
• Winston also leads the entire league in yards per route run, with his reception last week one of my favorite plays of the season.
• Wan’Dale Robinson feasted with Winston last week, earning 14 targets and delivering a 9/156/1 line on them.
• No other Giant exceeded five targets last week.
• The RB split is still tough, as Tyrone Tracy is the archetype that I much prefer in fantasy, and he took six more attempts than Devin Singletary last week and absolutely dominated the routes.
• But especially in standard or half-PPR leagues, Tracy is tough to start because he loses all of the goal-line work to Singletary.
• But Tracy has had at least three targets in four of his last five games, making him viable in PPR leagues even if his TD potential is basically zilch.

Patriots (26.75 Implied Points)

• It was another efficient passing day for Drake Maye last week despite a bad pick-six.
• The Patriots seemingly recognize what they have in Maye and are now up to 5th in PROE and very consistent in their pass-first approach.
• But it’s still difficult to trust any pass catcher on this team.
• Hunter Henry easily led the team with 10 targets last week, but I’d argue this is more of a Bengals defense stat than anything specific to Henry.
• Stefon Diggs remains my favorite option, but he’s a tough start as he ran about half of the team’s routes last week and saw his lowest target share since Week 3.
• We saw the roles of TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson fully flip from earlier this season, as Henderson was the clear early-down back and Stevenson was the 3rd-down back last week.
• Henderson led Stevenson in carries, 18 to six, and routes 22 to nine, and Henderson is a clear start this week.
• You’ve made it this far, and so you’ve earned the coughing baby vs coughing baby matchup of the week!
• The Patriots are bottom-four in nearly every major rushing stat and will be without LT Will Campbell in this one, which is a big loss going forward.
• But this Giants defense is historically bad, making Henderson a great start even with the Patriots’ offensive line issues.