Finding Values in Underdog Fantasy ADP

Aug 27, 2020
Finding Values in Underdog Fantasy ADP

Underdog Fantasy is a best ball site fresh off the presses for the 2020 season with a very familiar interface for long time BB players. Underdog uses typical half-PPR scoring, single quarterback rosters with no defenses or kickers, with 18 rounds of fun in both slow (four-hour timers) and fast (30-second clock) drafts available.

The crew here at 4for4 have been taking our shots at their Best Ball Mania contest, which features over 43,000 $25 entries and one million dollars in possible winnings. Because of my greed (and for your benefit too, I guess), I decided to comb through our half-PPR rankings to see what kind of discrepancies I could find between them and the current average draft position at Underdog. Below is a position-by-position breakdown of some players you can get at a value in your bid to obtain a piece of that $1M prize pool. At the end of the article, I've provided full tables of half-PPR rankings by position and the corresponding difference in Underdog ADP.

Click here to get started in any Underdog league.

Quarterbacks

Ryan Tannehill, Titans (6 spots higher in rankings versus ADP)

Is Ryan Tannehill now the most efficient quarterback in the league? Not a chance. But there is a chance that Tannehill took to the Titans offensive scheme better than he had at any point in his career with the Miami Dolphins. In his 10 starts at the helm last season, Tannehill notched a QB1 performance six times and was the overall QB3 over that stretch. All the while Tennessee only passed the ball 56.9% of the time in neutral game script (seventh-fewest), meaning we could see some more volume out of this passing offense in 2020.

Tannehill is coming off the Underdog board as the QB21, leaving plenty of room to exceed his draft slot, even if the Titans decide to run so much of their offense through Derrick Henry.

Kirk Cousins, Vikings (5 spots higher)

Kirk “Middle of the Pack” Cousins doesn’t offer us the same type of ceiling as he used to when he was in a slightly less run-heavy offense, and he added some value with his legs (no, seriously Kirk Cousins used to score rushing touchdowns), but he’s still a consistent scorer who we can take as our QB2. Minnesota did move on from Kevin Stefanski and replaced him with Gary Kubiak, who ran a more pass-friendly scheme in his last two years in Denver. The Vikings are never going to want to get into shootouts —at least not as long as Mike Zimmer is the head coach— but Cousins has become more and more efficient as his career progresses (INT% of 2.4, 1.7 and 1.4 previous three seasons) so he is very unlikely to offer up games that will net you single-digit fantasy points.

Running Backs

Chris Thompson, Jaguars (17 spots higher)

Thompson has played his entire seven-year career with the Washington Football Team, including a five-and-a-half season span with newly appointed Jaguars offensive coordinator Jay Gruden. He will have a chance to reprise his role as a passing-down specialist behind Leonard Fournette, who just had a woefully inefficient year on his shockingly high 94 targets. Thompson averaged 5.4 targets per game over the past three seasons and that would make for some useful weeks. He’s currently going undrafted in most drafts, making him a cheap last-round pick.

Rex Burkhead, Patriots (15 spots higher)

Burkhead is another last-round dart worth throwing. The Patriots backfield remains a question mark, with Sony Michel and Lamar Miller possibly starting the season on the PUP list and Damien Harris taking only five total offensive snaps as a rookie in 2019. As is typically the mantra with the Patriots backfield, finding the cheapest part of the committee could be the easiest path to value.

Wide Receivers

John Brown, Bills (9 spots higher)

Volume concerns and the addition of Stefon Diggs as a bonafide WR1 have been deflating John Brown’s average draft position for the entirety of 2020 but there’s hope for spike weeks that justify snagging him at his late-WR4 price. This is a concentrated passing attack with Josh Allen as the quarterback, and after Diggs, Brown, and to a lesser extent Cole Beasley, Allen is more apt to run the ball than heavily target anybody else. After Brown and Beasley last season, no other player on the team had over 50 targets. Allen’s 9.4 average intended air yards (fifth-most) should give us an idea of where Allen wants to go with the ball, meaning the deep ball will still be there for Brown and Diggs while the new arrival also steals a ton of work from Beasley on the underneath.

John Brown finished as the WR26 in points per game last season yet is being drafted as the WR46. He could lose work and still crush this ADP.

Emmanuel Sanders, Sanders (9 spots higher)

Manny Sanders —32-years old and seemingly forgotten by the fantasy community— will be lining up across a bonafide stud WR1 for the first time since the old Demaryius Thomas/Peyton Manning days back in Mile High Stadium. What’s more, he’ll be attempting to recreate the old man quarterback (Drew Brees)/dependable possession receiver (Michael Thomas) dynamic in one of the easiest opening-month schedules he could be afforded.

Sanders is currently going in double-digit rounds behind DeSean Jackson (has missed 17 games in the last two years), Sterling Shepard (low-ceiling WR3/4), and Rob Gronkowski (backiatomy).

Tight Ends

Nick Boyle, Ravens (9 spots higher)

Baltimore’s tight end room is far-and-away Mark Andrews without a ton of wiggle room behind him. With that said, Nick Boyle did command a 10% target and 7% air yards share in 2019, even while he had to battle both Andrews (23% target, 28% air yards share) and Hayden Hurst (9% target, 9% air yards share). Baltimore ran two-TE sets at one of the highest rates in the league, in both the run game and passing game, even leading the league in 22 personnel (two running backs, two tight ends), according to SportsInfoSolutions.

With Boyle set to see the field at a higher rate —as much as double the time of last season without Hurst in the picture— he makes for a decent flier at the end of your draft as your third tight end.

Dallas Goedert, Eagles (5 spots higher)

Zach Ertz is getting long in the tooth, heading into his age-30 season but we don’t need to root for Dallas Goedert to usurp him as the Eagles’ TE1 to find the third-year tight end as a value. Even with Ertz playing in 15 games last season, Goedert finished as the overall TE10 and the TE13 in half-PPR points per game. For reasons unbeknownst to me, he is being drafted as the TE17 in Underdog, which features half-PPR scoring.

There’s no reason to think other pass-catchers in Philadelphia are going to soak up underneath or seam targets from the tight ends; if anything, the offseason additions for the team will help further open up the parts of the field where the tight ends win. Bringing back a healthy (for now) DeSean Jackson and adding speedster Jalen Reagor in the NFL Draft will only stretch defenses out more as they protect against the long ball.

ADP Differential Tables

*Positive numbers mean the ranking is higher than ADP, negative numbers mean the opposite

Top-35 Quarterbacks w/Difference in ADP/Ranking
Half-PPR Ranking Player Team Difference Between ADP and Ranking*
1 Patrick Mahomes KC 1
2 Lamar Jackson BAL -1
3 Dak Prescott DAL -
4 Deshaun Watson HOU 2
5 Kyler Murray ARI -1
6 Russell Wilson SEA -1
7 Josh Allen BUF -
8 Matt Ryan ATL -
9 Tom Brady TB 3
10 Drew Brees NO 1
11 Carson Wentz PHI -2
12 Daniel Jones NYG 3
13 Aaron Rodgers GB 1
14 Matthew Stafford DET -4
15 Ryan Tannehill TEN 6
16 Cam Newton NE -3
17 Joe Burrow CIN 2
18 Ben Roethlisberger PIT -2
19 Kirk Cousins MIN 5
20 Jared Goff LAR -2
21 Baker Mayfield CLE -4
22 Jimmy Garoppolo SF -2
23 Gardner Minshew JAX -
24 Philip Rivers IND 2
25 Drew Lock DEN -
26 Teddy Bridgewater CAR -4
27 Derek Carr LV 1
28 Sam Darnold NYJ -1
29 Dwayne Haskins WAS -
30 Tyrod Taylor LAC -
31 Nick Foles CHI 2
32 Ryan Fitzpatrick MIA -
33 Tua Tagovailoa MIA -2
34 Justin Herbert LAC 1
35 Mitch Trubisky CHI -1
Top-50 Running Backs w/Difference in ADP/Ranking
Half-PPR Ranking Player Team Difference Between ADP and Ranking
1 Christian McCaffrey CAR -
2 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 1
3 Saquon Barkley NYG -1
4 Derrick Henry TEN 2
5 Dalvin Cook MIN -
6 Alvin Kamara NO -2
7 Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC -
8 Joe Mixon CIN 1
9 Kenyan Drake ARI 1
10 Aaron Jones GB 4
11 Nick Chubb CLE 1
12 Josh Jacobs LV -1
13 Austin Ekeler LAC -
14 Miles Sanders PHI -6
15 Chris Carson SEA 2
16 James Conner PIT -1
17 Todd Gurley ATL -1
18 David Johnson HOU 3
19 Melvin Gordon DEN -
20 Leonard Fournette JAX -
21 Le'Veon Bell NYJ 1
22 Mark Ingram BAL 2
23 Jonathan Taylor IND -5
24 Raheem Mostert SF 3
25 David Montgomery CHI -2
26 Devin Singletary BUF 3
27 Ronald Jones TB 3
28 Cam Akers LAR -
29 Kareem Hunt CLE -3
30 D'Andre Swift DET -5
31 Antonio Gibson WAS 6
32 Latavius Murray NO 8
33 James White NE 2
34 Tarik Cohen CHI 10
35 Kerryon Johnson DET 3
36 Matt Breida MIA -
37 Jordan Howard MIA -4
38 J.K. Dobbins BAL -7
39 Phillip Lindsay DEN 3
40 Boston Scott PHI 10
41 Marlon Mack IND -7
42 Adrian Peterson WAS 13
43 Zack Moss BUF -4
44 Tevin Coleman SF -12
45 Alexander Mattison MIN -2
46 DeAndre Washington KC 7
47 Duke Johnson HOU 2
48 Chris Thompson JAX 17
49 Tony Pollard DAL -8
50 Rex Burkhead NE 15
Top-75 Wide Receiver w/Difference in ADP/Ranking
Half-PPR Ranking Player Team Difference Between ADP and Ranking
1 Michael Thomas NO -
2 Davante Adams GB -
3 Julio Jones ATL 1
4 Chris Godwin TB 2
5 DeAndre Hopkins ARI -
6 Tyreek Hill KC -3
7 Allen Robinson CHI 5
8 Kenny Golladay DET -1
9 A.J. Brown TEN 7
10 Mike Evans TB -1
11 Robert Woods LAR 6
12 D.J. Moore CAR -2
13 Adam Thielen MIN 1
14 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT -3
15 Cooper Kupp LAR 3
16 Terry McLaurin WAS 3
17 Calvin Ridley ATL -2
18 Odell Beckham CLE -5
19 Amari Cooper DAL -11
20 D.J. Chark JAX 1
21 Tyler Lockett SEA -1
22 DK Metcalf SEA -
23 Stefon Diggs BUF 6
24 T.Y. Hilton IND 1
25 Keenan Allen LAC 3
26 DeVante Parker MIA -2
27 A.J. Green CIN 4
28 Marquise Brown BAL -2
29 Courtland Sutton DEN -6
30 Jarvis Landry CLE 2
31 Michael Gallup DAL -1
32 Tyler Boyd CIN 1
33 Julian Edelman NE 4
34 Marvin Jones DET -
35 Diontae Johnson PIT 1
36 Will Fuller HOU -9
37 John Brown BUF 9
38 Emmanuel Sanders NO 9
39 Jalen Reagor PHI 1
40 Jamison Crowder NYJ 3
41 Mike Williams LAC 6
42 Mecole Hardman KC -3
43 CeeDee Lamb DAL 1
44 Brandon Aiyuk SF 7
45 Brandin Cooks HOU -10
46 Anthony Miller CHI 6
47 Golden Tate NYG 9
48 Deebo Samuel SF -3
49 Curtis Samuel CAR 4
50 Christian Kirk ARI -12
51 Sterling Shepard NYG -3
52 Darius Slayton NYG -10
53 Preston Williams MIA 4
54 Jerry Jeudy DEN -
55 Henry Ruggs LV -14
56 Justin Jefferson MIN 4
57 Breshad Perriman NYJ 6
58 Allen Lazard GB 1
59 DeSean Jackson PHI -9
60 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 2
61 Parris Campbell IND 3
62 Steven Sims WAS 8
63 Sammy Watkins KC -8
64 N'Keal Harry NE -6
65 James Washington PIT 1
66 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 5
67 Robby Anderson CAR -6
68 Tyrell Williams LV 10
69 Cole Beasley BUF 17
70 Denzel Mims NYJ 5
71 Randall Cobb HOU -3
72 Danny Amendola DET 20
73 Corey Davis TEN 3
74 Dede Westbrook JAX -
75 Chris Conley JAX 25
Top-35 Tight Ends w/Difference in ADP/Ranking
Half-PPR Ranking Player Team Difference Between ADP and Ranking
1 Travis Kelce KC -
2 George Kittle SF -
3 Mark Andrews BAL -
4 Zach Ertz PHI -
5 Darren Waller LV -
6 Tyler Higbee LAR 1
7 Hunter Henry LAC 3
8 Jared Cook NO 3
9 Rob Gronkowski TB -
10 Hayden Hurst ATL -2
11 Evan Engram NYG -5
12 Dallas Goedert PHI 5
13 Austin Hooper CLE 2
14 Blake Jarwin DAL 4
15 Mike Gesicki MIA -3
16 Jonnu Smith TEN -
17 Jack Doyle IND 5
18 Eric Ebron PIT 3
19 Noah Fant DEN -5
20 Chris Herndon NYJ -
21 Ian Thomas CAR -2
22 Greg Olsen SEA 4
23 T.J. Hockenson DET -10
24 Will Dissly SEA 6
25 Gerald Everett LAR -
26 Jimmy Graham CHI 8
27 Irv Smith Jr. MIN -4
28 Jordan Akins HOU 14
29 O.J. Howard TB -2
30 Kyle Rudolph MIN -1
31 Tyler Eifert JAX -
32 Dawson Knox BUF -4
33 C.J. Uzomah CIN 1
34 Dan Arnold ARI 1
35 Nick Boyle BAL 9
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