Hoopes There It Is: Week 15 Game Preview

Dec 10, 2025

Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

It’s the best time of the year; the fantasy playoffs! You must have something to play for if you’re reading this, or you’re just a real sicko (respect if that’s the case). I’ll keep the intro short this week so we can get into the matchups. But this is your reminder that fantasy football is a game with a lot of variance. Just last week, the Steelers remembered they could attempt deep passes, the J.J. McCarthy-led Vikings won by 31 points, and the Titans/Browns game combined for 60. None of that was supposed to happen. We don’t need to be right 100% of the time; we just need to be more right than our opponent.

I like to use the graph below as an anchor point each week. It shows the efficiency of each offense on the x-axis (via EPA per play) and the number of offensive plays per game on the y-axis. We ideally want our fantasy assets to play on teams in the top-right corner. From this point, we can adjust for a ton of things, including matchups that we’ll dig into below. But my recommendation would be to take a final look at your lineups before the games kick off. Walk through each player, making sure you feel good about their talent, volume, and team-situation relative to your other options. And then let the chips fall where they may. Good luck this week!

Falcons at Buccaneers (Over/Under 44.5 points, Buccaneers favored by 4.5 points)

Falcons (20.0 Implied Points)

• In a game that was out of reach by the end of the 3rd quarter, the Falcons passed at a rate 13.1% below expectation.
• To their credit, they were playing one of the best defenses in the league without their starting QB and best WR.
• Kirk Cousins delivered only 7th-percentile passing efficiency, and he’s now only ahead of J.J. McCarthy and Cam Ward in EPA per play.
• Dylan Drummond had the 2nd most targets in the game, which is not a good sign for the health of the offense.
• Drake London has yet to practice this week, which makes me think he won’t be available again.
• If that’s the case, Kyle Pitts is a viable TE starter as he continues to pace the team in targets with Cousins in the lineup and London out of it.
• And I’d find it hard to believe you have a better option than Bijan Robinson unless you’re in a guillotine league.
• Robinson led Tyler Allgeier in carries, 20 to 11, and routes, 20 to seven, last week.
• But Allgeier’s volume was juiced because they turned to him at the end of the game in a blowout loss.
• It’s a tough matchup for Robinson on the ground, as the Buccaneers’ run defense is 5th-best in the league and opponents have opted to pass on the Bucs at the 3rd-highest rate relative to expectation.
• In order for Robinson to hit, we’ll need the Falcons to perform better on 3rd downs to avoid being blown out, and for Cousins to rely on Robinson more as a receiver.

Buccaneers (24.5 Implied Points)

• It was a rough game last week for the entire Buccaneers’ offense.
• Like the Falcons, they leaned heavily into the run with a -12.9% pass rate over expectation (PROE).
• They ended the day with a poor 39% success rate, 25th-percentile passing efficiency, and 33rd-percentile rushing efficiency.
• Baker Mayfield now has flat or negative EPA in seven straight games, and his -16.5% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) was particularly alarming last week.
• The Falcons’ pass defense is stronger than their run defense, and they’re particularly good at getting to the QB, ranking 3rd in sack rate and 11th in pressure rate, according to SIS.
• My preferred start among the pass catchers is still Emeka Egbuka, who continued his seven-game streak of 8+ targets, though only delivered a 2/15/0 line.
• According to JJ Zachariason, WRs with a 30%+ target share hit 10+ PPR points 80% of the time; Egbuka is doing it only 20% of the time.
• I think you follow the volume and continue to expect the pendulum to swing back in Egbuka’s favor.
• But the situation could get murkier this week with both Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan possibly back from injury.
• Bucky Irving is the only other Buccaneer that I’m confidently starting this week.
• His workload dipped a lot last week, and he ultimately received the same number of snaps as Rachaad White.
• But we know Irving’s talent, and now he gets to face the 24th-ranked Falcons’ run defense at home as 4.5-point favorites.

Browns at Bears (O/U 40.5, CHI -7.5)

Browns (16.5 Implied Points)

• As mentioned in the intro, the Browns were one of the surprises of the week, putting up 29 points in a close loss to the Titans.
• The sportsbooks don’t seem to be buying it, with the Browns’ implied points about half of their actual points last week.
• And that’s despite a good matchup against a Bears’ defense that allows the highest rate of explosive passes in the league.
• Shedeur Sanders had a good game with 0.19 EPA per play despite a -4.7% CPOE.
• Harold Fannin Jr. is the only Browns’ pass catcher I’m willing to start this week, as he earned 10 of the team’s 33 targets last week.
• David Njoku also suffered a knee injury in the 2nd quarter last week, and I’m assuming he sits this week.
• Fannin is now running nearly every route and turned his 10 targets into an 8/114/1 line last week.
• I’d prefer to sit Quinshon Judkins, but I get it if you’re limited on alternative RB options.
• We want our RBs in fantasy to score TDs and catch passes.
• The TD opportunities on this offense are expected to be limited with only 16.5 implied points, and Judkins ran only 11 of the team’s 47 routes last week.
• But you can see him having an efficient day on the ground against this Bears’ run defense.

Bears (24.0 Implied Points)

• A rough matchup for our Bears’ players in the first week of the fantasy playoffs, though 24 implied points isn’t bad.
• The Bears ran the ball really efficiently last week, hitting 90th-percentile EPA per run, bringing them up to 4th on the season.
• D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai continue to divvy up the RB work, with Monangai taking one more carry last week but running 11 fewer routes.
• The routes make Swift my preferred play of the two, but the Browns are top-three in limiting both successful passes and runs.
• Caleb Williams’ superpower this season has been avoiding sacks, and the Bears have the 3rd-lowest sack rate in the league.
• We’ll need Williams to cape up again this week with Myles Garrett chasing the single-season sack record in an otherwise lost season for the Browns.
• Even with the sack avoidance, Williams has been mostly average this year, with explosives offsetting a poor success rate and poor accuracy.
• At pass catcher, I’m assuming that Rome Odunze once again sits with the stress fracture in his foot.
• And I’d prefer to sit DJ Moore, making the rookies Colston Loveland and Luther Burden the only viable options in my mind.
• Neither are slam dunk options because Olamide Zaccheaus played more than Burden in 12 personnel last week, ultimately running six more routes, and Cole Kmet only ran one fewer route than Loveland.
• Additionally, Browns’ opponents opt to run on them at the 6th-highest rate in the league, something the Bears will be happy to do.

Jets at Jaguars (O/U 41.5, JAX -12.5)

Jets (14.5 Implied Points)

• 14.5 implied points is incredibly low; so low that I would really question starting any Jets’ player this week.
• The QB situation is really in flux as Tyrod Taylor left last week with a groin injury and Justin Fields is still dealing with a knee injury.
• My assumption, and seemingly that of the sportsbooks as well, is that rookie Brady Cook is the starter this week.
• Cook was terrible by the advanced stats, hitting -0.42 EPA per play with -18.2% CPOE on a 9-yard aDoT.
• Mason Taylor is my preferred pass catcher in really deep or 2-TE leagues, as he paced the team with eight targets and looked like Cook’s security blanket.
• There’s not really a huge ceiling, but you could see him going 5/51/0 again like last week.
• Annoyingly, he only ran 26 of the team’s 40 routes last week, with Jeremy Ruckert running 15 routes for no reason.
• Breece Hall dominated the RB work, taking 14 of the 15 RB carries and running 20 routes.
• He’s an extremely talented player, but this is a brutal offensive environment, and he’s going against one of the best run defenses in the league.

Jaguars (27.0 Implied Points)

• Trevor Lawrence had his best game of the season last week, hitting 0.42 EPA per play on a very-high 11.2-yard aDoT.
• In typical Lawrence fashion, he still completed fewer passes than expected, but he didn’t turn the ball over or take any sacks.
• Jakobi Meyers has seemingly been a revelation for Lawrence, with Meyers scoring in three consecutive games.
• He paced the team with nine targets last week, and he’s my preferred Jaguars’ pass catcher this week against a Jets’ pass defense that is bottom-eight in efficiency, explosive rate allowed, and sack rate.
• And Travis Etienne is a clear start this week.
• I’m not exactly sure if Bhayshul Tuten was benched because of the fumbles last week or just wasn’t able to return because he was evaluated for a concussion.
• Ultimately, Tuten only played on two offensive snaps after losing a fumble on a kickoff return and then fumbling again on his 2nd carry.
• That meant Etienne took 20 of the 22 RB carries, though he only ran 14 of the team’s 33 routes.
• As massive 12.5-point home favorites, we should see a lot of carries for Etienne against a bottom-five Jets’ run defense.

Bills at Patriots (O/U 50.5, BUF -1.5)

Bills (26.0 Implied Points)

• This is the first of three games this week with a projected total over 50 points.
• We really want to be attacking these games in fantasy, but the way the Bills and Patriots operate makes that a challenge.
• The Bills had a massive 56.5% success rate to go along with 98th-percentile passing efficiency last week.
• Josh Allen’s 0.62 EPA per play was amazing, but once again it was on a tiny aDoT of 4.6 yards.
• The TEs were the beneficiaries of Allen’s play last week, which wasn’t a surprise given the Bengals’ defense has allowed about twice as many TE TDs as any other team in the league.
• Dawson Knox led the team with seven targets, followed by five for Dalton Kincaid, and no other pass catcher exceeded three.
• Kincaid is my preferred play among the pass catchers, but he again only ran about half of the team’s routes, which notches up the variance in his fantasy scoring.
• One of these WRs can absolutely pop up for a massive week, but your guess is as good as mine whether it's Gabe Davis, Tyrell Shavers, etc.
• Allen is a clear start, and so is James Cook, who took 18 of the 20 RB carries and, surprisingly, 24 of the team’s 36 routes.
• The routes were great to see from Cook, as we had been getting more Ty Johnson in recent weeks.
• We didn’t see an uptick in receiving production last week from Cook, but we could in future weeks if his route rate persists.

Patriots (24.5 Implied Points)

• Just like the Bills, it’s difficult to pin down a pass catcher to highlight for fantasy purposes.
• In their Week 13 game vs the Giants, five players earned between four and six targets.
• This is mostly vibes-based and should be taken with a massive grain of salt, but Stefon Diggs is my preferred receiver for this specific week.
• Diggs is a risky bet because his role has declined recently, but he had his best game of the year back in Week 5 against the Bills, going 10/146/0 with the revenge-game narrative fully in focus.
• The ugly splits are really similar at RB.
• Here are the splits from Week 13 between Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson: 12 to 11 carries, 21 to 16 routes, and 38 to 32 snaps.
• The Patriots’ run game vs the Bills’ run defense is the coughing baby vs coughing baby matchup of the week!
• The Patriots have the 3rd-least efficient rushing attack in the league, but the Bills have the 2nd-worst run defense, with opponents opting to run on the Bills at the highest rate in the league.
• Henderson is my preferred RB because he’s the more explosive player, but we’re going to need those explosives to hit when he’s cleanly splitting volume with Stevenson.

Ravens at Bengals (O/U 52.5, BAL -2.5)

Ravens (27.5 Implied Points)

• Our 2nd 50+ point game total of the week here.
• The Ravens leaned massively into the run last week with a -17.3% PROE in a game they were trailing throughout and ultimately lost.
• It was another below-average game for Lamar Jackson, hitting 0.03 EPA per play with -5% CPOE on a 7.3-yard aDoT.
• That’s about four games in his last six with below-average EPA and CPOE for Jackson, with injuries the most likely reason, though I thought his athleticism looked great to my eye last week.
• But at 27.5 implied points, I’m willing to start a lot of Ravens, including Jackson and Zay Flowers, who earned 11 targets last week, even if he may never score a TD again.
• I’m also willing to start both Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely, as the Bengals’ defense has given up about twice as many TDs to opposing TEs as any other team.
• Andrews actually saw his route rate jump a lot last week, running 36 of the team’s 42 routes.
• And Likely just needed a “football move” in the endzone to secure a two-TD day.
• Dawson Knox had not exceeded 37 receiving yards in a game until he put up 93 on this Bengals’ defense; start your TEs against Cincinnati.
• And I’d be surprised if you have a better option than Derrick Henry, who took a massive 25 carries last week, but as is typical, only ran 13 of the team’s 42 routes.

Bengals (25.0 Implied Points)

• The Bengals have turned back into one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league with Joe Burrow under center.
• Burrow was fantastic last week, hitting 0.28 EPA per play with 7% CPOE on a 9.1-yard aDoT.
• And that EPA is all the more impressive because it includes 15.6 expected points lost to two interceptions, both of which were a bit unlucky.
• The Bengals had 36 team targets, with Tee Higgins earning 11 of them, Ja’Marr Chase eight, Mike Gesicki six, and no other Bengal exceeding four.
• Higgins likely suffered another concussion last week, though, after being sidelined in Week 13 with a concussion.
• My assumption at this point is that Higgins sits, which means Chase should have all the targets he could ever want.
• Chase earned 14 targets the last time Higgins sat out.
• Chase Brown is still getting home for fantasy even with Samaje Perine’s return hurting his bellcow workload.
• Brown led Perine 12 to six in carries last week, 21 to eight in routes, and 40 to 22 in snaps.
• He’s a start after earning seven targets against this same Ravens team just two weeks ago, but Perine is a thorn in his side.
• Gesicki is a tougher decision because he went 2/19/0 without Higgins against this Ravens team two weeks ago.
• And he only ran 17 of the team’s 38 routes last week with both Noah Fant and Drew Sample involved, though Gesicki earned an impressive six targets on those 17 routes.
• Gesicki has a ceiling but also absolutely no floor, so it would really just depend on who your other options are at the position.

Cardinals at Texans (O/U 42.5, HOU -10.0)

Cardinals (16.25 Implied Points)

• Arguably the worst draw possible for our Cardinals’ skill players in the first week of the fantasy playoffs.
• This Texans defense is elite, ranking in the top-six in almost every metric I track with the exception of explosive pass rate, where they’re just average.
• And this Cardinals’ offense is coming off a brutal performance against another elite defense in the Rams, with a 28.6% success rate, 33rd-percentile passing efficiency, and 39th-percentile rushing efficiency.
• But there is one thing we can count on with this Cardinals’ offense, and that is passing volume.
• The Cardinals ended last week with a massive 43 targets compared to only 11 carries, good for a 9.2% PROE.
• Michael Wilson earned a whopping 16 targets, followed by 10 for Trey McBride, with no other Cardinal exceeding five.
• I have no read on whether Marvin Harrison Jr. will be back from his heel injury this week, but if he’s not, Wilson is a fantastic start on volume alone, while McBride is a must-start in every league and every format.
• The split at RB stayed consistent last week, with Bam Knight the early-down back and Michael Carter the passing-down back.
• Knight led Carter seven to three in carries, but Carter ran 25 routes to Knight’s 17.
• If possible, I’d prefer to avoid starting either RB in the first week of the fantasy playoffs.

Texans (26.25 Implied Points)

• The Texans won a massive game against the Chiefs last week, but it was not because of their offense.
• They had a brutal 32.4% success rate, though their passing efficiency was ok at the 45th percentile.
• Nico Collins led the team with eight targets, followed by five for Jayden Higgins, with no other receiver exceeding three.
• It’s difficult to trust any WR beyond Collins because of how the Texans rotate them.
• In 11 personnel, they keep Collins on the field but rotate Xavier Hutchinson and Higgins on the outside and Christian Kirk and Jaylin Noel in the slot.
• I don’t think Higgins is the worst start, despite the rotation, because this Cardinals’ pass defense is bad and susceptible to both successful and explosive plays.
• Nick Chubb left last week’s game in the 2nd quarter with a rib injury and didn’t return.
• In his absence, Woody Marks dominated the RB work, ultimately taking 26 of the 27 RB carries and running 19 of the team’s 35 routes.
• If Chubb misses this game, Marks is a fantastic start given the projected volume and the matchup against a poor Cardinals’ run defense.

Raiders at Eagles (O/U 38.5, PHI -11.5)

Raiders (13.5 Implied Points)

• 13.5 implied points is disgusting.
• Geno Smith hit -0.05 EPA /per play last week before suffering a shoulder injury in the 3rd quarter last week and not returning to the game.
• Smith’s status isn’t certain for this week, but my assumption at this point is that he plays.
• Brock Bowers is the only pass catcher you should be interested in starting, with the hope that his talent continues to overcome his circumstances.
• And Ashton Jeanty can also be started, but he’s likely to be inefficient behind this offensive line with limited scoring opportunities, given the implied points.
• He had a three-game stretch of eight targets before earning only four last week; we’ll need a high target game to make him a worthwhile start.

Eagles (25.0 Implied Points)

• Jalen Hurts was awful last week by the advanced stats, hitting -0.41 EPA per play with -10.7% CPOE on a high 10.2-yard aDoT.
• But his EPA was dinged a ton by five turnovers, which are often a bit random and not likely to occur to this extent again this season.
• The Eagles’ offense was actually better than the Chargers’ in both success rate and yards per play.
• And we at least know who to start in this offense, with A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert, and DeVonta Smith combining for 30 of the team’s 35 targets last week.
• Saquon Barkley similarly took 20 of the team’s 21 RB carries and ran 29 of the team’s 43 routes.
• With 25 implied points against a Raiders’ defense that is below average in most categories, I’d be willing to start all of Hurts, Brown, Smith, Goedert, and Barkley.
• I just wouldn’t recommend actually watching the game.

Commanders at Giants (O/U 47.5, NYG -2.5)

Commanders (22.5 Implied Points)

• The Commanders got beat down by the Vikings last week, losing 31-0 and hitting 2nd-percentile passing efficiency in the process.
• Jayden Daniels was bad with -0.33 EPA per play on an insanely-low 3-yard aDoT, but Mariota was about five times worse on only seven plays.
• Mariota was in because Daniels re-injured the elbow that caused him to miss time earlier in the season.
• Head coach Dan Quinn said that Daniels could have returned, but it was the coach’s decision to keep him out for the rest of the game.
• With that in mind, my assumption is that Daniels plays this week, but that’s not a certainty.
• Coming off a game that bad, it’s tough to recommend many players on the offense.
• Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin easily paced the team with six and five targets, respectively, and were harmed by both the quality and volume of the offense.
• The running backs have a fantastic matchup this week against the worst run defense in football.
• But it’s still a gross three-way committee with Chris Rodriguez my strong preference between them if you have to start one.
• Rodriguez took 10 of the 17 RB carries but only ran seven routes, limiting his upside immensely.

Giants (25.0 Implied Points)

• The Giants are coming off their bye week, which followed a resounding loss to the Patriots.
• Wan’Dale Robinson and Theo Johnson dominated the targets, with each earning 8 of the team’s 24 total targets.
• I’d be willing to start both, depending on your other options, given the implied points and the state of this Commander’s defense.
• Though Robinson is really only useful in full-PPR leagues given his typical aDoT.
• The RB work was split on the surface, with nearly even snaps, routes, and carries between Devin Singletary and Tyrone Tracy.
• But Tracy suffered a hip injury in the 4th quarter and didn’t return to the game, and Singletary took over as the lead RB from that point on.
• Tracy said that he expects to be fine despite the hip contusion/stinger, but his status will be key to watch if you plan on starting him.
• Tracy took all eight snaps on the first two drives in Week 13, according to PFF, making him my strong preference between the two RBs if he’s healthy.
• You can only start Singletary if Tracy sits.

Chargers at Chiefs (O/U 41.5, KC -4.5)

Chargers (18.5 Implied Points)

• With key offensive line injuries and Justin Herbert’s broken non-throwing hand, the Chargers have fallen dramatically from their pass-heavy ways this season.
• They ended last week with a -11.4% PROE, in line with the other dinosaurs in the league.
• And the entire offense had a rough day, with Herbert averaging 3.2 net yards per attempt (takes into account sacks) and the RBs averaging only 3.7 yards per carry.
• What worked the best in the offense were Herbert’s designed runs and scrambles that gained 66 yards on 10 attempts.
• The sportsbooks clearly have concerns going forward with only 18.5 implied points in this game against an average Chiefs’ defense.
• Ladd McConkey led the team with five targets last week, and he’s my preferred pass catcher of the group.
• The lack of volume and implied points means I’m much less willing than earlier in the season to start a bunch of Chargers’ receivers.
• Omarion Hampton returned last week and split the carries with Kimani Vidal, but critically, only ran eight routes to Vidal’s 23.
• In order to feel confident starting Hampton this week, we’ll need to decipher how much of that split was the Chargers easing Hampton back in and how likely that is to reverse this week.
• To be honest, I have no idea what the answer is yet, but I will be watching this as the week progresses.

Chiefs (23.0 Implied Points)

• The Chiefs lost what was essentially a must-win game last week.
• The Texans’ elite defense held Patrick Mahomes to 4th-percentile passing efficiency and -14.9% CPOE.
• Mahomes’ three interceptions really drove that efficiency number down, but he was unlucky on multiple fronts, with one pick essentially a drop from Travis Kelce and another one tipped.
• The Chiefs now need to win out and still get some help from other teams to have a shot at the playoffs.
• Rashee Rice and Kelce led the team in targets and are the two pass catchers I’m most interested in starting this week.
• The Chiefs have leaned into the run recently, at least relative to our expectation for them, hitting only a 1.4% PROE last week.
• I don’t really get the point of this as they’re below-average in rushing success rate and near the league-bottom in explosive run rate.
• The lack of explosives will happen when your run game is extremely predictable and led by starting RB Kareem Hunt.
• The Chargers’ pass defense is much stronger than their run defense, so I could see the Chiefs once again landing around neutral in PROE this week.
• And the Chargers are susceptible to explosive runs, but this Chiefs’ offense just isn’t the team to take advantage of that weakness.
• Hunt is an uninspiring play if you really need him, but I’d much prefer to look elsewhere.

Titans at 49ers (O/U 44.5, SF -12.5)

Titans (16.0 Implied Points)

• Shoutout to Tony Pollard, who delivered both a 65-yard TD and a 32-yard TD last week against one of the best defenses in the league.
• The strength of this 49ers’ run defense is their ability to stop explosives.
• Combined with only 16 implied points, I wouldn’t expect this showing again from Pollard.
• Like usual, I would prefer not to start any Titans in fantasy.
• If I were forced to start one Titans’ pass catcher, it would be Chimere Dike, as he earned eight targets last week, twice as many as the next Titan.
• I would just find an option on another team, though.

49ers (28.5 Implied Points)

• A really healthy implied point total for the 49ers after their bye.
• Facing an elite Browns’ defense, and with the Browns’ offense providing no pushback, the 49ers ended Week 13 with 22 targets compared to 32 carries.
• With that limited volume, Jauan Jennings led the team with only six targets, followed by five for George Kittle, and four for Christian McCaffrey.
• McCaffrey dominated the RB work, taking 20 of the 28 RB carries and running 23 of the team’s 32 routes.
• I’m confidently starting both CMC and Kittle, with Jennings also an option given the target earnings we’ve seen recently and the team total.
• Jennings has 4+ catches in seven straight games, which is the longest streak for the 49ers since Anquan Boldin in 2014, according to Josh Dubow.
• Ricky Pearsall only earned three targets before the bye, and I wouldn’t personally trust him in the first week of the fantasy playoffs.
• If we’re sure he’s fully healthy and strings together a few games here, he’ll be a great asset during championship week against a Bears’ defense that gives up the highest rate of explosive pass plays in the league.

Colts at Seahawks (O/U 42.5, SEA -13.5)

Colts (14.5 Implied Points)

• Daniel Jones ruptured his Achilles last week, ending what was a really promising season both for him and this entire Colts’ team.
• Riley Leonard took over for Jones last week and looked ok, hitting 0.01 EPA per play with -1.9% CPOE on a low 5.9-yard aDoT.
• But Leonard suffered a PCL sprain in the same game and isn’t expected to play this week.
• The Colts’ options are now Brett Rypien, who lost a camp battle in Minnesota to Max Brosmer, or 44-year-old Philip Rivers, who hasn’t played a game in five years.
• To make matters worse, the Colts get a Seahawks’ defense this week that is top-eight in every defensive category I track.
• I’m personally starting Jonathan Taylor in the Brock-Bowers category of singular talent overcoming a bad offensive situation.
• But it’s hard to recommend anyone else on this offense with either Rypien or Rivers at the helm.

Seahawks (28.0 Implied Points)

• Going into Week 14, the Seahawks were the only team in the league not to finish any game with a positive PROE.
• That surprisingly changed last week, as they finished with 29 targets compared to 24 carries, good enough for +2.7% PROE.
• And Sam Darnold rewarded them with 0.33 EPA per play.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba is an obvious must-start, and he dominated the targets once again last week with 10.
• AJ Barner would be the second pass catcher I’m most interested in playing, largely in deeper or two-TE leagues.
• Elijah Arroyo hurt his knee in the 2nd quarter last week and didn’t return to the game.
• After Arroyo exited, Barner played on 15 of the Seahawks’ 18 snaps in 11 personnel prior to garbage time, according to PFF.
• It sounds like Arroyo is likely to miss this week, with the expected playing time boost and the 28 implied points making me more interested in Barner, depending on your other TE options.

Packers at Broncos (O/U 43.5, GB -2.5)

Packers (23.0 Implied Points)

• The Packers’ offense was great against the Bears last week, hitting a 51.9% success rate, 73rd-percentile passing efficiency, and 89th-percentile rushing efficiency.
• The Bears’ defense gives up the highest rate of explosive pass plays in the league, and Jordan Love hit them for three 20+ yard TD passes, with two to Christian Watson and a third to Bo Melton.
• But the Packers opted to lean on the run with a -7.4% PROE as they so often do.
• As a result, Watson, Jayden Reed, and Luke Musgrave tied for the target lead with only four targets last week.
• And we go from one end of the defensive spectrum to the other this week, as the Broncos allow the lowest explosive pass play rate in the league.
• It would be tough to bench Watson given his recent play, but I think we have to really lower our expectations in this one.
• And Musgrave can’t really be considered at TE because he only ran nine routes last week.
• Josh Jacobs is the only Packer that I’m confidently starting this week, as he took 20 of the 23 RB carries last week and ran 13 of the team’s 26 routes.
• But the Broncos’ defense also allows the lowest rate of explosive runs in the league.

Broncos (20.5 Implied Points)

• The Broncos were really pass-heavy relative to expectation last week, and they’re now up to 6th in PROE on the season.
• Bo Nix played well with 0.19 EPA per play and 11% CPOE, but his 5.7-yard aDoT makes it clear that most of his passing value was through receiver yards after the catch.
• Courtland Sutton dominated the targets with 10.
• It’s been a wild ride for Sutton this season, but he’s earned at least six targets in three straight games, making him the clear Broncos’ pass catcher to start in fantasy.
• You can cut Troy Franklin from your fantasy teams at this point, if you haven’t already, as he’s clearly behind Pat Bryant on the depth chart.
• RJ Harvey is my favorite start on the team after consolidating the RB work last week.
• Harvey took 17 of the 25 RB carries and ran 26 of the team’s 43 routes.
• He played on 72.2% of the snaps in normal, early-down situations last week, according to PFF, which was the second-best rate of his career.
• But it was a weird game for the offense, as they didn’t have any two-minute-drill snaps, and the Broncos didn’t find themselves in 3rd downs often.
• Those are two scenarios that Harvey has rarely played in this season, meaning his snaps might have been artificially juiced last week.
• I’m personally still starting him, though.
• He had 10 successful runs on 13 carries against stacked boxes last week, which was the highest success rate by any player with 10 such carries since 2022, according to Next Gen Stats.

Panthers at Saints (O/U 40.5, CAR -2.5)

Panthers (21.5 Implied Points)

• The Panthers are coming off one of the biggest surprise wins of the season against the Rams in Week 13.
• They had 19 targets compared to 38 carries (-24.3% PROE), which is one of the biggest spreads I can remember seeing.
• Jalen Coker led the team with five targets, with six other Panthers earning between two to three targets.
• Tetairoa McMillan caught only one pass in Week 13, but luckily it was a 43-yard touchdown.
• McMillan is still the only Panthers’ pass-catcher that I’m interested in starting, but the primordial pass-run split limits his upside.
• The RB work has flipped back in favor of Chuba Hubbard, with Hubbard playing over 50% of the snaps for the first time since Week 8.
• Rico Dowdle actually took one more carry, but Hubbard critically ran 15 routes to Dowdle’s six.
• The route difference didn’t show up in the box score because both earned two targets.
• But I want the RB with the routes, so if I’m starting one Panthers’ RB this week, it’s Hubbard.
• The Saints’ run defense is about average and better than their pass defense, but opponents still opt to run on the Saints at the 5th-highest rate relative to expectation.
• And the Panthers are the 3rd-most run-heavy team in the league, meaning we should see a lot of carries to go around between Hubbard and Dowdle.

Saints (19.0 Implied Points)

• The Saints were very run-heavy last week, which isn’t a surprise, and they ended the day about average in passing and rushing efficiency.
• Tyler Shough got a lot of value through designed runs and scrambles, including the first two rushing TDs of his career.
• The team only had 19 targets, less than half the number of the Cardinals, as an example.
• Chris Olave and Devaughn Vele led the team with five targets each, followed by four for Juwan Johnson, and no other Saint exceeded two.
• Olave is the only pass catcher I’m interested in starting this week.
• Johnson is tough to trust, given Taysom Hill ate into an already-low number of team routes.
• Devin Neal dominated the RB work and is an uninspiring fantasy start.
• He took 19 of the 23 RB carries and ran 18 of the team’s 24 routes.
• He only earned one target on those routes, though, so we’ll need a rushing TD to justify the start.

Lions at Rams (O/U 55.5, LAR -5.5)

Lions (25.0 Implied Points)

• This is the 3rd and final game with an implied point total over 50, and one that I’m both excited to watch and trying to jam as many pieces into my starting lineups as possible.
• The Rams are 2nd in defensive pass efficiency, 3rd in defensive rush efficiency, and top-11 in most metrics I track.
• But this Lions’ offense has averaged 34 points over their last three games and is top-six in both explosive pass and run rate.
• And we know exactly who to start in fantasy, with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Jahmyr Gibbs each earning 8+ targets last week.
• All three are must-starts given the volume concentration and the implied points.

Rams (30.5 Implied Points)

• The Rams had an other-worldly 64.4% success rate last week, along with 94th-percentile passing efficiency and 98th-percentile rushing efficiency.
• When this team is clicking, they are *clicking*, with Matthew Stafford now the leading MVP candidate and top-four in EPA behind Jordan Love, Drake Maye, and Josh Allen.
• Puka Nacua earned 10 targets last week and is an obvious must-start.
• The Ram Scam, or what I’m calling the 1-yard Davante Adams TDs, failed last week, though Adams saw two endzone targets on the first drive and easily paces the league on that front.
• Adams is also a must-start.
• The Kyren Williams vs Blake Corum split is interesting, as they took essentially the same number of carries last week but Williams ran 18 routes to Corum’s nine.
• Williams is my preferred RB given the route split, but you could do worse than Corum depending on your other options.
• Starting Corum is essentially a bet on a rushing TD, though, because he’s non-existent in the passing game.

Vikings at Cowboys (O/U 47.5, DAL -5.5)

Vikings (21.0 Implied Points)

• The Vikings crushed the Commanders last week 31-0, which was one of the big surprises of the week.
• They hit a strong 53.5% success rate, 88th-percentile passing efficiency, and 93rd-percentile rushing efficiency.
• Credit to J.J. McCarthy, who hit 0.39 EPA per play.
• But before we deem him fixed, I would bring up that this was on very low volume (16 completions), and McCarthy is still dead-last in EPA efficiency among qualifying QBs this season.
• It’s definitely a step in the right direction for both him and the health of the entire offense, though.
• He gets another fantastic matchup against a bad Cowboys’ defense this week.
• Jordan Addison dominated the limited number of team targets last week with seven, while Justin Jefferson only saw four.
• I honestly have no idea what to do with Jefferson.
• He’s perhaps the most talented WR in the league going up against one of the worst pass defenses; there is clearly a scenario where he melts faces.
• But his last TD was in Week 9, and he hasn’t topped 62 receiving yards since Week 8.
• I’d be willing to start Aaron Jones, though I’m not particularly excited to do it.
• He led Jordan Mason in carries 14 to 11 and routes 10 to four last week, so he’s clearly the RB you want of the two.
• But the ability to start any Viking depends on the version of McCarthy we get, and I consider myself skeptical.

Cowboys (26.5 Implied Points)

• It was an inefficient day for the Cowboys’ offense last week, with Dak Prescott ultimately hitting -0.03 EPA per play with 1.2% CPOE on a high 10.6-yard aDoT.
• The biggest reason for the loss was the turnover differential, with the Cowboys giving it away three times compared to zero for the Lions.
• CeeDee Lamb suffered a concussion in the 3rd quarter and didn’t return to the game.
• Most players typically sit the week after sustaining a concussion, but Lamb does have 10 days between games, and the news I’ve seen so far is promising about him returning this week.
• George Pickens is a must-start regardless of Lamb’s status, with Ryan Flournoy an option if Lamb sits.
• Flournoy actually led the team with 13 targets last week, and I want to be overly exposed to this Cowboys’ passing attack even against one of the best pass defenses in the league.
• I’m also willing to start Jake Ferguson if Lamb sits.
• Ferguson has averaged 18.6 PPR points per game in games with Lamb limited or missing compared to 10.7 in games with Lamb playing, according to JJ Zachariason.
• Javonte Williams is also a clear start, as he dominated the RB work with 17 of the 20 RB carries last week and 38 of the team’s 54 routes.

Dolphins at Steelers (O/U 42.5, PIT -3.0)

Dolphins (19.75 Implied Points)

• The Dolphins were very run-heavy last week, focusing on low-aDoT throws and relying on rushing efficiency to win.
• That’s exactly what we’ve come to expect from this version of the Dolphins.
• They ended the day with 20 targets compared to 41 carries.
• Jaylen Waddle dominated those targets, earning seven, with no other Dolphin exceeded four.
• He’s the only pass catcher I’m interested in starting this week.
• And then De’Von Achane is the only other Dolphin I’m starting.
• Achane suffered a rib injury last week, ultimately limiting him to 22 of the team’s 65 snaps.
• But the initial reporting I’ve seen is that it isn’t a serious injury, and my assumption as of now is that he plays this week.
• The Steelers’ run defense is much worse than their pass defense, so we could certainly see some explosive runs from the team leading the league in that category.

Steelers (22.75 Implied Points)

• I would’ve really appreciated the heads-up from the Steelers that they were going to try last week.
• The Steelers had zero completions of 20+ yards in the five games leading up to Week 14.
• So, of course, they completed all four of their 20+ yard attempts last week.
• Even with the big day, the Steelers are still dead-last in air yards per pass attempt.
• But their +17% PROE was about 5% higher than in any other week this season.
• The biggest question I have this week is whether any of this carries over into Week 15, or do the Steelers go back to being a slow, run-heavy, juiceless offense?
• How you answer that question determines your confidence level on DK Metcalf, and I guess I’m skeptical that this is some light-bulb moment for the Steelers.
• But Metcalf remains the only Steelers’ pass catcher I’m starting in fantasy, as there is a gross snap rotation after him.
• Jaylen Warren is my preferred RB of this backfield, as he took four more carries than Kenneth Gainwell last week.
• But Gainwell has earned six or more targets in three of his last four games, providing him a floor in PPR leagues.