O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 15

Dec 10, 2025

Andrew Boyers-Reuters via Imagn Images

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 14 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
3	LAR	DET	27	24
8	SF	TEN	29	21
10	NYG	WAS	28	18
12	WAS	NYG	30	18
15	BAL	CIN	31	16
4	BUF	NE	19	15
5	CHI	CLE	18	13
19	MIN	DAL	32	13
2	IND	SEA	14	12
14	ATL	TB	25	11
13	TB	ATL	24	11
7	DET	LAR	17	10
9	PIT	MIA	13	4
11	SEA	IND	15	4
1	DEN	GB	4	3
6	PHI	LVR	8	2
20	MIA	PIT	20	0
26	TEN	SF	26	0
28	NYJ	JAX	23	-5
27	JAX	NYJ	21	-6
23	CIN	BAL	16	-7
16	GB	DEN	9	-7
30	CLE	CHI	22	-8
17	DAL	MIN	7	-10
22	HOU	ARI	12	-10
18	KC	LAC	5	-13
29	NO	CAR	11	-18
21	NE	BUF	2	-19
24	CAR	NO	3	-21
32	LAC	KC	10	-22
25	ARI	HOU	1	-24
31	LVR	PHI	6	-25

Rams vs. Lions

Heavy NFC Playoff implications, a sky-high game total, and a smorgasbord of fantasy options on each team; the perfect atmosphere for Week 15. Both teams are in a fantastic spot to provide fantasy managers with some crooked numbers, but this matchup sets up slightly better for the Los Angeles Rams’ pieces.

Even with a big four-sack performance —three of which coming from Al-Quadin Muhammed— last Thursday, the Lions’ pass-rush has a middling 6.0% pressure rate over expected since their Week 8 bye, ranking 17th across the league. What’s worse, their battered secondary has allowed a league-high 111.2 yards on 9.1 yards per attempt on those pressured looks over that span. In those six games, opposing quarterbacks have averaged 21.3 fantasy points, none of whom fell below the QB14 mark on any given week.

Fire up Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and Davante Adams with confidence.

49ers vs. Titans

Despite ranking a modest 20th in opponent yards gained per drive (32.5), the Tennessee Titans have the third-worst scoring defense in the league, thanks in large part to an offense that cannot sustain their own drives, punting the ball on 46% of their possessions, second to only the Cleveland Browns’ 49%. Playing the “field position” game against a suddenly healthy San Francisco 49ers offense coming out of their bye could turn into a blowout pretty quickly, as the Niners have the second-highest point total on the week (28.5).

The Titans do have a solid defensive interior, but the names coming off the EDGE are still very much a work in progress, leading to a lowly 22.1% pressure rate (30th) when filtering for only DEs and LBs. This figures to be a problem against Brock Purdy, who has 8.77 YPA (7th), a 7.2% TD rate (5th), and 0.67 fantasy points per dropback (7th) when the defense is unable to force a pressure. Locking down exactly who this will benefit behind George Kittle and Jauan Jennings would be a difficult task, but the top three names (and Christian McCaffrey) in the passing attack should all be fired up.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Panthers @ Saints

Tyler Shough has been flexing his rushing ability as of late (95 yards, two touchdowns in the three games since the Saints’ bye), but it hasn’t kept him from hitting the turf, with 12 sacks taken over the last three weeks. Though much of that is based on his own issues of moving into pressure —his 25.0% pressure-to-sack rate is the sixth-highest in that span— his offensive line continues to be beaten at the point of attack, sporting the league’s highest blown block rate (3.77%) over the 2025 season.

Though the D/ST listed below is a better pick-up if they’re still floating on waiver wires, the Panthers are also in a good spot in New Orleans against a team ranked 30th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses.

Bears vs. Browns

It’s been announced that Shedeur Sanders will be getting the rest of the starts here in 2025, and though he has made obvious improvements over his short time as the signal-caller, this is still a situation we can attack for fantasy D/ST purposes. Unlike the dink-and-dunk nature of the Cleveland Browns offense with Dillon Gabriel, Sanders is far more willing to let the ball fly down the field. However, this has also helped lead to a 4.8% turnover-worthy play rate, a number that would clock in as the second-highest among the league’s starters, if extrapolated over the full season.

Sanders still has the propensity to head backward when feeling pressure, and the offensive line is compounding that issue. On 118 dropbacks, the rookie has been pressured at an insane 51.7% clip, a 12.0% pressure rate over expectation that could rear its head in Week 15 as 7.5-point road underdogs. The Bears D/ST is in a great spot in Week 1 of the fantasy playoffs.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Back Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
6	PHI	LVR	29	23
12	WAS	NYG	31	19
10	NYG	WAS	28	18
15	BAL	CIN	32	17
5	CHI	CLE	17	12
8	SF	TEN	20	12
1	DEN	GB	11	10
11	SEA	IND	21	10
13	TB	ATL	23	10
14	ATL	TB	22	8
18	KC	LAC	25	7
21	NE	BUF	27	6
9	PIT	MIA	15	6
19	MIN	DAL	24	5
22	HOU	ARI	26	4
2	IND	SEA	6	4
27	JAX	NYJ	30	3
7	DET	LAR	7	0
3	LAR	DET	3	0
4	BUF	NE	1	-3
16	GB	DEN	12	-4
17	DAL	MIN	9	-8
29	NO	CAR	19	-10
26	TEN	SF	16	-10
24	CAR	NO	13	-11
23	CIN	BAL	10	-13
31	LVR	PHI	18	-13
20	MIA	PIT	5	-15
30	CLE	CHI	14	-16
28	NYJ	JAX	8	-20
25	ARI	HOU	4	-21
32	LAC	KC	2	-30

Eagles vs. Raiders

Lane Johnson could be returning this week, which would offer a big boost to the rushing game and the offense, in general. Johnson has been off the field for 128 designed runs this season —as opposed to 179 on the field— which gives us a great sample to work with. With the right tackle missing, the team averages -0.12 EPA/play, while Saquon Barkley has accrued a 94-340-1 stat line; 3.6 YPA. When on the field, the team averages 0.01 EPA/play, with Barkley racking up a 124-522-4 line, at 4.2 YPA.

Even if Johnson is forced to wait another week to suit up, Barkley should lock in another RB1 performance against a Raiders’ defensive line that ranks 22nd in adjusted line yards (4.44) and 29th in RB aFPA.

Ravens @ Bengals

The Baltimore Ravens' offensive line hasn’t played anywhere near the heights that we’ve come to expect over the last few seasons, but they’ve put together some pretty solid performances throughout the year. Though it seems like Derrick Henry has had a pretty ho-hum year following his massive 2024, he’s been the RB7 since Week 8, while the o-line has climbed up to fifth in RB yards before contact (1.73) on the season, up from 12th heading into their Week 7 bye (1.45).

Anything resembling a league-average offensive line is a positive matchup against this Cincinnati Bengals defense, and their already-poor tackling is going to get quite a workout against Henry in what is projected to be 13° weather on Sunday.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: