Hoopes There It Is: Week 3 Game Preview

Sep 17, 2025

Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

We have two data points. It’s not much, but it’s enough to start searching our way around the dark for clues. With that in mind, I want to start today with early-season team intent. What do these teams *want* to be doing? And I’ve got five categories to classify intent: pass rate over expected (PROE), situation-neutral pace, play action use, motion use, and target depth. To me, our ideal NFL team for fantasy is pass-heavy, fast, uses a heavy dose of play action and motion to make life harder on the defense, and is willing to pass the ball down the field.

The tables below show the five categories and are sorted by how many categories each team hits at an above-average rate through two weeks. Two big things off the top. The first is that these things can change. Let me rephrase that; these things *will* change as teams realize what they want to do might not match what they can do. And the second point is related in that intent does not match success. But we’ll marry early-season intent with how successful they’ve been in each team section below. But if you’re wondering why all of the Chargers’ receivers are hitting, the intent table might give you a clue. And we can use this to get ahead of our competition before things are *confirmed* with more weeks of data.

Dolphins at Bills (Over/Under 49.5, BUF favored by 12.5 points)

Dolphins (18.5 Implied Points)

• The Dolphins were neutral in PROE in Week 2 after going very pass-heavy with terrible efficiency in Week 1.
• They were mostly average in both pass and rush efficiency last week.
• It’s still a concentrated offense, with De'Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle each getting six or more targets.
• Achane also dominated the RB carries, though Malik Washington also got involved with three attempts.
• I said last week to wipe away the Bills’ defensive stats after playing the Ravens.
• Well, the Bills held the Jets to 7th percentile efficiency in Week 2.
• But technically, the Dolphins’ offense is 4th in rushing efficiency, and the Bills’ defense is near the league bottom, actually giving up the highest rate of explosive runs.
• Teams also have run on the Bills at the 2nd-highest rate in the league.
• If I’m the Dolphins, I’m leaning on Achane as much as possible until the game is completely out of hand.

Bills (31.0 Implied Points)

• An absolutely massive implied point total for the Bills this week.
• The worst individual unit in all of football right now is the Dolphins’ secondary.
• The problem is the Bills went back to rotating their WRs last week after concentrating them a bit in Week 1.
• There were only 32 routes last week, and no individual player exceeded 21.
• Dalton Kincaid was the busiest receiver last week, earning six targets on only 20 routes due to an increased role on 3rd downs, but no other receiver had more than four targets.
• And the Bills are also running the ball really well to go along with a very low target depth for Josh Allen.
• Regardless, especially if you’re desperate, you could convince me to start essentially any Bills receiver and hope that’s the guy that hits with this implied point total.

Packers at Browns (O/U 41.5, GB -8.5)

Packers (25.0 Implied Points)

• The routes and targets for Green Bay’s receivers were spread around like usual in Week 2.
• But Tucker Kraft led the team in both and dominated in this one, looking like a weekly starting TE going forward.
• Kraft technically tied for the lead in targets with Dontayvion Wicks, who should see more slot snaps after the Jayden Reed injury.
• Josh Jacobs received every carry with the exception of two attempts each for Savion Williams and Matthew Golden.
• We love the 23 carries for Jacobs, but earning zero targets on 16 routes is certainly less than ideal.
• And Jacobs faces an elite Browns’ rushing defense that pushed the Ravens to go extremely pass-heavy last week, with the RBs combining for 30 yards on 14 carries.
• As a result, teams have tended to attack the Browns defense through the deep passing game.
• You don’t have to force Jordan Love’s hand on that front, as he leads the league in air yards per attempt.
• I think we see some deep shots to Romeo Doubs, Golden, and Wicks amidst a more pass-heavy version of the Packers.

Browns (16.5 Implied Points)

• 16.5 implied points is pretty brutal.
• And that’s partially because Joe Flacco’s -0.53 EPA per play last week was gross.
• We had strong involvement from Cedric Tillman, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, and Harold Fannin.
• But the entire offense is being propped up a bit by their number of plays, as they’re 2nd in the league with 71.5 plays per game thus far.
• We also have a mess at the RB position, with Jerome Ford taking 50% of the snaps last week and Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson splitting the other half.
• I would personally expect Judkins and Sampson to take all of the snaps away from Ford at some point, but I have no idea when that will happen.
• A clear signal through two weeks is that the Packers’ defense is truly elite.
• If the number of Browns’ offensive plays drops, then we have the 30th most-efficient offense against perhaps the best defense in the league with only 16.5 implied points.
• I’m not excited to start any Browns player this week.

Rams at Eagles (O/U 44.5, PHI -3.5)

Rams (20.5 Implied Points)

• The Rams had nearly 100th-percentile rushing efficiency last week.
• So, Kyren Williams must have had an amazing day, right? Right?
• Wrong! Blake Corum averaged 8.8 yards per carry, and Puka Nacua took his one carry 45 yards for a touchdown.
• Williams and Corum have the same number of explosive runs on the season, despite Williams leading the number of attempts 35 to six.
• You have to imagine we see Williams’ already-declining snap rate fall further here.
• The targets were still extremely concentrated, with Davante Adams earning 12 and Puka Nacua earning nine.
• Tyler Higbee was third with only four targets, but he did dominate the TE routes with the Colby Parkinson injury.
• Teams have opted to pass on the Eagles so far this year, which should be fine by the Rams.
• The Eagles’ defense has given up a high rushing success rate, which actually is something Williams can manage.

Eagles (24.0 Implied Points)

• Jalen Hurts was blitzed on 59.3% of his dropbacks in Week 2, according to PFF, which was 2nd-highest behind only Daniel Jones.
• And Hurts was 27th among qualifying QBs in PFF pass grade against the blitz.
• It was another tough week for the Eagles’ passing game.
• And I’d guess we see more of the same in Week 3.
• The Rams have the most-efficient pass defense in the league through two weeks, making this the worst possible bounce-back spot for the passing offense.
• In response, opposing teams have opted to run on the Rams at the 4th-highest rate versus expectation.
• You don’t have to ask the Eagles to run the ball.
• One final note is that Hurts’ rushing average looked bad last week, but he converted five 3rd or 4th down and 1-yard to go scenarios.

Falcons at Panthers (O/U 43.5, ATL -5.5)

Falcons (24.5 Implied Points)

• Tyler Allgeier was more involved in the run game and looked really good on his attempts.
• But Bijan Robinson still dominated the RB routes, which is what we really care about.
• The targets were a bit more spread around last week with Darnell Mooney returning.
• But it’s a solid bounce-back spot for the Falcons’ pass game with the Panthers’ defense last in the league in sack rate.
• Michael Penix has been mostly average in sack rate thus far, but throughout his college career and his rookie NFL season, he’s been exceptional at avoiding sacks when pressured.

Panthers (19.0 Implied Points)

• Xavier Legette has 0.10 yards per route run (YPRR) this season.
• That’s not a typo.
• Among players with at least 10 targets, the next lowest is Hunter Renfrow with 0.69.
• And Legette is losing snaps to create-a-player Brycen Tremayne (that’s not very nice because he has 2.09 YPRR, which is excellent).
• Tetairoa McMillan, Hunter Renfrow, and Ja’Tavion Sanders all had nine or more targets, so it’s pretty concentrated.
• I’d be careful chasing Sanders, though, because his route rate still isn’t where it needs to be for consistent performance.
• Chuba Hubbard dominated the RB routes in Week 2, which is really great for his fantasy value and a bit surprising after the Panthers brought in Rico Dowdle in the offseason.
• It’s a pretty terrible spot for the Panthers offense, as the Falcons have the most-efficient defense in the league through two weeks.
• But it’s fair to question how much of that is due to the Vikings looking absolutely horrible with JJ McCarthy at the helm.

Jets at Buccaneers (43.5 O/U, TB -7)

Jets (18.25 Implied Points)

• The Jets are the only team in the league that did not hit any of the five team intent categories in a beneficial way for fantasy football.
• They passed at a rate *only* 10% below expectation last week after starting the season off at 18%.
• The biggest issue for the Jets is Justin Fields’ concussion, which has already ruled him out for Week 3, with Tyrod Taylor now expected to start.
• As expected, Garrett Wilson dominated the targets with seven, with no other Jets’ player getting more than three.
• Breece Hall dominated the carries, but he only had 10 in a blowout loss.
• And it’s not a good matchup this week for what the Jets want to do, as the Buccaneers have the 2nd-most efficient run defense in the league but are only 26th versus the pass.
• I think you start both Wilson and Hall because they’re extremely talented players in very concentrated roles, but there’s no one else worth considering at this point.

Buccaneers (25.25 Implied Points)

• Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka, and Bucky Irving each had six or more targets last week.
• No other player had more than four, though Sterling Shepard and Cade Otton did run a ton of routes.
• Irving dominated the RB routes, but did have a 17-to-10 split in carries with Rachaad White.
• The backs combined for 96th-percentile rushing efficiency last week.
• And now they face a Jets defense that is 4th-worst in rushing efficiency.
• I’d expect a very successful day for Irving even if the Jets defense continues to limit explosive runs.

Colts at Titans (O/U 43.5, IND -4.5)

Colts (24.0 Implied Points)

• The Colts’ offense has yet to punt this season if you want an indication of how things are going in Indianapolis.
• The biggest change from Week 2 was the resurgence of Josh Downs, who earned eight targets on only 23 of 38 possible routes.
• But some good news on the route front is Downs took three snaps in 2-WR sets.
• That doesn’t sound like much, because it isn’t, but it is a move in the right direction with the hope that his excellent play leads to more routes.
• But I’ve buried the lead for Week 3 because the Titans have the least-efficient run defense in the league, giving up near 100th-percentile efficiency to the Rams in Week 2.
• And the Colts want to run the ball with Jonathan Taylor.
• It’s a blowup spot for Taylor in terms of efficiency.

Titans (19.5 Implied Points)

• While Week 2 was still bad, Cam Ward’s passing EPA and success rate at least moved in the right direction.
• The five sacks last week are still a massive issue, but at least the Colts’ defense has one of the lowest sack rates in the league.
• Calvin Ridley, Elic Ayomanor, Chig Okonkwo, and Chimere Dike had nearly the same number of targets last week.
• That’s incredibly bearish for Ridley’s production if he can’t substantially out-target Dike in any game.
• Tony Pollard handled every RB carry but only earned one target.
• Now, you could say this for any player, but Pollard’s fantasy production will look a lot better in a given week if he can get into the endzone.
• And the Colts’ defense is pretty bad against the run, but the concern is how long will the game script allow the Titans to run the ball?

Raiders at Commanders (O/U 44.5, WAS -3.5)

Raiders (20.5 Implied Points)

• There’s really no other way to describe Geno Smith’s Week 2 besides terrible.
• But this is still an offense I want to invest in because they pass a lot, play with pace, are willing to pass down the field, and use a lot of play action.
• Both Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers earned seven or more targets, but surprisingly, so did Tre Tucker.
• Ashton Jeanty dominated the RB carries, but it was unfortunately a three-way split for routes between Zamir White, Dylan Laube, and himself.
• It was a clear drop in snaps for Jeanty, and his deployment is similar to that of JK Dobbins in Denver, with all of the carries but a gross split in passing work.
• Opponents have tended to pass on the Commanders defense, which should be fine by the Raiders as they’re 4th in PROE.
• It’d be really nice to see the efficiency of the ground attack improve from the bottom of the league versus an average run defense, though.

Commanders (24.0 Implied Points)

• The only thing that really matters for Week 3 is whether Jayden Daniels is going to play.
• As of writing this, he wasn’t going to practice until Friday at the earliest.
• The routes were dominated last week by Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, and Zach Ertz, with each of them earning seven or more targets.
• With Austin Ekeler out for the year, we should see more of both Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt and Jeremy McNichols.
• McNichols ran 12 routes last week but earned zero targets, which isn’t the greatest start.
• Bill only had four carries last week, but it was a weird game script, and we’ll definitely see more runs called moving forward.
• But this week, I think the Commanders will be pass-heavy, assuming Daniels can suit up.
• Teams pass on the Raiders at the highest rate in the league, as the Raiders have the most-efficient run defense in the NFL.
• Maxx Crosby was a terror, blowing up Omarion Hampton's runs from the opposite side of the field last week.

Steelers at Patriots (O/U 44.5, PIT -1.5)

Steelers (23.0 Implied Points)

• Last week was a rough outing for Aaron Rodgers (file this away under “things you love to see”).
• He had -0.19 EPA per play and completed passes 6.6% below expectation, to go along with two interceptions and three sacks.
• The annoying amount of Kenneth Gainwell usage continued as he ran a similar number of routes and earned a similar number of targets as Jaylen Warren.
• But Warren out-carried Gainwell 14 to five and made one big 65-yard reception that led Rodgers to tell the media that Warren should be more involved moving forward.
• We’ll see on Warren, but Kaleb Johnson remains banished to the shadow realm.
• DK Metcalf had six targets last week and remains the only weapon in the pass game that you can play in fantasy.
• It’s a pretty good matchup this week, as teams tend to pass on the Patriots with their 28th-ranked pass defense but 4th-ranked run defense.
• And the Patriots give up the highest rate of explosive passes in the league.

Patriots (21.5 Implied Points)

• The Patriots had 97th-percentile passing efficiency last week against the terrible Dolphins’ pass defense.
• But the targets were spread around, with no player earning more than five.
• TreVeyon Henderson only had 19 snaps last week, but 11 of those were routes at least.
• He earned 2 targets and was given only 3 carries on his snaps.
• Antonio Gibson is annoyingly still involved, and Rhamondre Stevenson hit a 55-yard reception that will skew a lot of his per-route numbers, but he still was able to do that.
• Henderson is best left on benches for now, but to me, he is a clear target for 2-0 fantasy teams to acquire.
• I’m curious to see if the Patriots will mostly run the ball to the left side of the field like every other team in order to avoid TJ Watt.
• The Steelers have faced 45 runs to the left side of the formation according to SIS, with the next closest team only facing 31.
• Overall, though, it’s a good spot for this Patriots’ offense.

Bengals at Vikings (O/U 41.5, MIN -3)

Bengals (19.25 Implied Points)

• Hard to start the Bengals’ section with anything other than the Joe Burrow injury that will sideline him for at least three months.
• And while I think Jake Browning is one of the more competent backup QBs in the league, it’s still a big downgrade for everyone on this offense.
• Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins absolutely dominated the targets last week, which is what we expect but also, we didn’t see this in Week 1.
• It’s a brutal first start for Browning, though, as the Vikings have the 2nd-most efficient pass defense, with defensive coordinator Brian Flores known for changing what the QB sees post-snap.
• This Vikings’ defense has been susceptible to explosive runs, but the Bengals’ offense is 31st in the league there.

Vikings (22.25 Implied Points)

• As a Justin Jefferson manager, is it bad that I’m excited for Carson Wentz?
• Answer: Yes, it is bad.
• The Vikings had 1st-percentile passing efficiency last week with JJ McCarthy at the helm.
• He’s had one good quarter out of eight thus far, which is less than ideal.
• Like we’ve been saying in New Orleans, if Wentz is just below-average, that’s a massive improvement for Jefferson.
• The RB work should be very consolidated on Jordan Mason moving forward, with Aaron Jones landing on IR due to a hamstring injury.
• It’s a great spot for Mason, even if the Bengals’ defense has been below-average rather than the dumpster fire we expected coming into the year.

Texans at Jaguars (O/U 44.5, JAX -1.5)

Texans (21.5 Implied Points)

• Nico Collins dominated the targets last week with nine, as no other receiver had more than four.
• Nick Chubb dominated the RB carries but split the routes with Woody Marks.
• I’m pretty optimistic that Marks gets more opportunities moving forward, but he’s got a hill to climb to take over the Chubb carries.
• We’ll need the Justin Watson and Xavier Hutchinson snaps to disappear in order for Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel to ascend.
• And we started to see that a bit as Noel and Watson saw the same playing time in 3-WR sets in the 2nd half, according to PFF.
• But now Christian Kirk might return this week to muddy the waters further.
• A lot of this doesn’t matter if Stroud can’t improve his play, as he’s 24th in EPA per play this season after finishing 25th last year.
• And he faces a strong Jaguars defense this week.
• One positive is that the biggest weakness of this Jags defense is their sack rate, so maybe we can get some small amount of relief for Stroud this week.

Jaguars (23.0 Implied Points)

• The Jaguars lost last week partially due to penalties and special teams play that won’t necessarily continue moving forward.
• Their 0.10 per rush EPA was really strong, and it was great to see Bhayshul Tuten get involved and look great in the process.
• His 18 snaps were up from only four in Week 1, and he earned two targets on seven routes to go along with eight carries.
• That was only one fewer target than Travis Etienne on 19 fewer routes.
• Dyami Brown and Parker Washington jumped into the fray last week with seven and six targets, respectively.
• I wouldn’t chase the Washington targets as he only ran 12 routes.
• The Houston defense looks below average so far on paper, but they’ve faced two very strong offenses in the Rams and Buccaneers.
• Their strength is unsurprisingly their sack rate, given they have Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter on their roster.
• But they’re dead-last in defensive rushing success rate, while the Jaguars’ offense is 6th-best in the league there.
• Tuten should be able to build on his success in this one.

Saints at Seahawks (O/U 41.5, SEA -7)

Saints (17.25 Implied Points)

• Two big positives for the Saints this year are their league-leading pace and the below-average play of Spencer Rattler.
• But they’re heavily leaning into the run and now are faced with Seattle, who have one of the best run defenses in the league.
• We saw some positive signs for Alvin Kamara last week in the passing game, though, as his six targets were a big jump from Week 1 and closer to what we expect from him.
• Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson, and Rashid Shaheed dominated the rest of the targets, with no other Saints player earning more than two.
• I would expect the Saints to pass the ball more than they want to in this one, and might have limited success there against an average Seahawks pass defense.

Seahawks (24.25 Implied Points)

• The Seahawks have a higher EPA per play running the ball than they do passing, which is…woof.
• And they’ve made their intention to run the ball quite clear, with their -6.8% PROE only higher than the Jets.
• When they do pass, the targets are extremely concentrated, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba earning 10 last week and Cooper Kupp bouncing back with eight targets.
• No other Seahawks receiver earned more than four.
• Zach Charbonnet dominated the routes, but only Kenneth Walker earned a target.
• And while the carry split was even, Walker earned 105 rushing yards to Charbonnet’s 10.
• You’d have to expect a heavier split for Walker going forward, hopefully starting this week against an average Saints run defense.

Broncos at Chargers (O/U 45.5, LAC -2.5)

Broncos (21.5 Implied Points)

• Week 2 was a massive breakout game for Troy Franklin, who earned nine targets compared to only four for Courtland Sutton.
• No other receiver mattered last week; with Franklin a clear waiver-wire target, even if I’d like to see this kind of target-earning again before really buying into it.
• JK Dobbins dominated the RB carries, but it’s a three-way split for routes like it was in Las Vegas in Week 2.
• The Chargers’ defense is elite against the pas,s but do give up explosive runs, while the Broncos offense is 4th in explosive run rate.
• This seems like a pretty good spot for RJ Harvey to break one, but he’s best left on benches for now until his role expands or Tyler Badie disappears.

Chargers (24.0 Implied Points)

• If you’re wondering why all of the Chargers’ receivers are hitting, it’s two-fold.
• First, the Chargers are one of only two teams that hit all five of the intent categories we want in an ideal NFL team for fantasy.
• And second, Justin Herbert is playing at such a high level right now.
• Speaking of intent, the Chargers were massively pass-heavy again in Week 2 and are easily on pace to lead the league in PROE.
• Their rushing attack was terrible again, but a big portion of the EPA loss was from a fumble on an aborted snap.
• Omarion Hampton dominated the routes but still tied Najee Harris with two targets, while the carries were basically split between them.
• Part of that carry split was due to Harris closing out the game after Hampton fumbled in the last four minutes.
• There should be better days ahead for Hampton, but he’s 43rd out of 50 qualifying RBs in yards before contact per attempt at only 0.3 yards.
• That’s not a typo, with 65 of his 72 rushing yards this season coming after contact.
• We’ll need improved run blocking to get this Chargers’ run offense out of the doldrums.

Cowboys at Bears (O/U 50.5, DAL -1.5)

Cowboys (26.0 Implied Points)

• Dak Prescott had 62 dropbacks last week, and the Cowboys were still -2.4% PROE.
• There were just so many possessions in the game that it skews all of the stats for the week.
• Jake Ferguson somehow earned 12 targets for a fantastic 27% targets per route run (TPRR).
• CeeDee Lamb earned 11 targets, George Pickens earned eight, and no one else was involved in the pass game at all.
• I regret to inform you that Javonte Williams again dominated the RB work and honestly looked good doing it (shoutout to the haters, it was a great call).
• What’s frustrating about Williams is that I found this offseason that rushing yards over expected (RYOE) is basically useless for RBs changing teams, but I still thought this didn’t qualify for Williams, who ran behind one of the best offensive lines in the league last year.
• The Cowboys now face one of the least-efficient defenses in the league this week; wheels up for all Cowboys’ skill players.

Bears (24.5 Implied Points)

• Sacks were once again an issue for Caleb Williams last week, with those sacks and his interception the big culprits, hurting his passing efficiency.
• Rome Odunze dominated the targets in this one with 11 on 40 routes.
• He’s the clear WR you want to have in Chicago.
• The Luther Burden snaps are still incredibly low, but he did earn two targets, and there is some coach speak about getting him more involved moving forward.
• The box score makes it look like D’Andre Swift is losing work to Kyle Monangai, and I’d love that, but Monangai just took the last 11 snaps of the game in a blowout.
• The Cowboys’ defense is one of the worst in the league against the pass, and the Bears are absolutely unable to run the ball.
• I’d expect a pass-heavy game plan for the Bears in this one.

Cardinals at 49ers (O/U 44.5, SF -1.5)

Cardinals (21.5 Implied Points)

• Trey Benson, not Marvin Harrison Jr., was 2nd on the Cardinals in targets last week.
• Benson’s five targets came on only 16 routes, but that was still more routes than Conner because Benson is playing on 3rd downs and in two-minute drills.
• I think Benson is a pretty clear target that should still be relatively cheap to acquire via trade in case his role continues to expand or Conner ever goes down with injury.
• Opponents have also opted to run on the 49ers at the highest rate in the league.
• Having said that, the 49ers have played the Seahawks, who are dead-set on establishing the damn run.
• And the Cardinals’ pass success rate is much better than their run rate.
• Hard to say where they’ll net out on this one, but I hope you’ll join me in the Trey McBride TD prayer circle.

49ers (23.0 Implied Points)

• The 49ers were surprisingly pass-heavy last week in a game with Mac Jones at the helm.
• And he did well with 67th-percentile passing efficiency despite a massive lost fumble in the 3rd quarter that is included in that rate.
• Jauan Jennings had three more targets than Ricky Pearsall despite running the same number of routes and being limited by injuries.
• Jennings is still the WR you want in San Francisco.
• It’s a pretty good matchup for the 49ers’ pass game, as the Niners are 3rd in pass success rate, while the Cardinals’ defense is 25th in that same stat.

Chiefs at Giants (O/U 45.5, KC -6)

Chiefs (25.75 Implied Points)

• The targets were spread around to a lot of different receivers last week.
• But it sounds like we could get Xavier Worthy back for Week 3, which would be huge for the fun level of this offense.
• The RB work was also pretty split between Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt, which is about as bearish as it can get for Pacheco.
• The Giants’ run defense is second-to-last in every major run category, but the Chiefs won’t be able to take advantage of it because they can’t run the ball at all.

Giants (19.75 Implied Points)

• The Giants’ passing attack was the surprise of the week for me.
• But like usual, Russell Wilson’s EPA per play diverged from his success rate.
• If the deep shots hit, then his efficiency looks great. If they don’t, it’ll be rough.
• The deep shots hit in a big way in Week 2, as he completed 13.4% more attempts than expected.
• Darius Slayton tied Malik Nabers in routes but only earned two targets.
• The big surprise by far was how Wan’Dale Robinson was used.
• The graph below shows the distribution of the air yards for all of Robinson’s career receptions.
• The red area all the way to the right was entirely from last week.
• He gets to face a Chiefs defense that is frankly not good, with opponents opting to attack them through deep passes.
• I’m very interested to see if this kind of usage continues for Robinson or is a one-week mirage.
• In the run game, Cam Skattebo led the RB snaps and had an 11-to-five carry lead over Tyrone Tracy.
• Skattebo is clearly the Giants RB you want going forward, and it’s bullish that the switch is happening so early in the year.

Lions at Ravens (O/U 52.5, BAL -4.5)

Lions (24.0 Implied Points)

• We got back to the Lions’ offense we’ve been used to last week.
• They were still run-heavy, but the massive efficiency of their passing attack returned.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown dominated this one with 11 targets and two carries, with no one else earning more than four targets.
• Jameson Williams ran the most routes and got there in fantasy, but it’s tough to trust the big plays will hit on limited volume every week.
• Isacc TeSlaa played nearly the same number of routes as Kalif Raymond, which is what we expected after Week 1. TeSlaa’s routes should continue to increase.
• The Ravens’ defense is more susceptible to the run through two weeks, which isn’t a problem for the Lions, who run the ball at the 5th-highest rate vs expectation.

Ravens (28.5 Implied Points)

• The Ravens offense went massively pass-heavy last week.
• But I wouldn’t expect that to continue because it was likely just a response to the Browns’ elite run defense.
• Zay Flowers continues to dominate the targets, earning another 10 targets last week.
• Derrick Henry only had 11 attempts last week, and it seemed almost purposeful that they didn’t use him near the goal-line.
• Again, this feels like a one-week blip due to the matchup.
• Despite the TDs in this offense, the usage isn’t consistent enough for anyone other than Flowers in this pass game.
• It’s simply not worth chasing the rotational deep shot players like DeAndre Hopkins, Tylan Wallace, or Devontez Walker.
• The Lions’ defense is above average overall and elite against the run.
• But they do give up a lot of explosive runs, something that the Ravens thrive on.