Breakout Receiver Model: Week 7
Welcome back to the Breakout Receiver Model. The model is trained on the previous three weeks of data and updated weekly to spot players who may be over- or underperforming the value of their opportunities—whether due to luck, skill, or a mix of both. We’ll use it to identify buy-low and sell-high candidates for season-long managers and to surface main-slate players with more true ceiling potential than the public perceives. Let’s dig in.
About the Breakout Receiver Model
The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, built the current iteration of a receiver “buy-low” model that uses machine learning to identify underperforming wide receivers and tight ends on the verge of a breakout. The model blends historical baselines with recent performance to determine which players have earned opportunity that is typically more valuable than their recent production suggests. Features include air yards and routes run to quantify opportunity, plus a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back over the last 10 weeks of individual performance to better estimate bounce-back likelihood. The most recent three weeks are weighted heaviest.
Underperforming Players (Buy-Low)
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