Hoopes There It Is: Week 14 Game Preview

Dec 03, 2025

Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Twelve of the 32 starting QBs last week had an air yards per attempt mark below seven yards. That’s the most we’ve seen since Week 4. At the same time, the average team passed at a rate about 4% below expectation, which was tied for the lowest PROE this season. You get some downright silly stuff when you combine those two things in the same week.

The graph below shows every QB that started last week. The x-axis shows their season-long average in air yards per attempt, while the y-axis shows just Week 13. I’m dubbing the bottom-left quadrant the “What Are We Doing?” section. Because seriously, what the hell is this? I get it with Max Brosmer, a rookie QB, going against one of the best defenses in the league. But there’s simply no upside in Pittsburgh or Las Vegas when each attempt is only four yards beyond the line of scrimmage. And don’t even get me started with the Bills. Joe Brady should be arrested for crimes against good football.

But bringing this back to fantasy football, offenses that are establishing the damn run and only passing via screens nuke the value of their skill players. Brandin Cooks was the only Bills’ skill player with an aDoT above five yards last week. He had one target. The Bills joined the Seahawks and Raiders as teams with less than 100 total air yards in Week 13. Brock Bowers was the only viable pass catcher on any of those teams and he needed two TDs on four targets to get there. I’ll highlight air yards in the game previews below, but it’s hard to get too excited about any pass catcher tied to a QB in the bottom-left of the graph.

Cowboys at Lions (Over/Under 53.5 points, Lions favored by 3 points)

Cowboys (25.25 Implied Points)

• While their air yards per attempt were below average, the Cowboys were throwing with intent last week at a +9% PROE.
• And they were rewarded with 89th-percentile passing efficiency.
• The low aDoT wasn’t a huge surprise in this particular game because the Chiefs’ secondary has limited opponents to the lowest average target depth in the league this season.
• But we have a team willing to pass that concentrates its targets among three players, which is great for our purposes.
• George Pickens led the way last week with 12 targets, followed by nine for CeeDee Lamb, and six for Jake Ferguson.
• Pickens and Lamb are must-starts every week, and Ferguson is viable depending on your other TE options.
• Javonte Williams continued to dominate the RB work last week with 17 of the 20 RB carries.
• Williams also ran 18 of the team’s 39 routes.
• We go from one end of the spectrum with the Chiefs’ defense to the opposite with the Lions’.
• Lions’ opponents have attacked them with the highest average target depth in the league, and the Lions’ defense has given up the 4th-highest rate of explosive pass attempts.
• I think we see some high receiving totals from Pickens and Lamb in this one.

Lions (28.25 Implied Points)

• The Lions had a downright prehistoric -22.6% PROE last week.
• And they were punished with only 15th-percentile rushing efficiency, just a week after hitting the highest designed-run efficiency for any offense since 2020.
• It was short-yardage failures that really drove down their rushing efficiency, with the Lions now zero for seven on 4th down conversions in their last two games.
• Jared Goff had a very efficient day, but on low volume with a low aDOT in a game the Lions ultimately lost.
• To be fair to the Lions, they did lose Amon-Ra St. Brown to an ankle injury only four plays into the game.
• In his place, Jameson Williams dominated the targets with 10; no other Lion exceeded four.
• And Jahmyr Gibbs dominated the RB work, taking 20 of the 27 RB carries and running 19 of the team’s 32 routes.
• My assumption is that St. Brown sits on a short week, making both Williams and Gibbs must-starts.

Saints at Buccaneers (O/U 42.5, TB -8.5)

Saints (17.0 Implied Points)

• The Saints leaned into the run with a -5.4% PROE last week, and we’re about average in rushing efficiency.
• Tyler Shough had a tough day, finishing with -0.19 EPA per play, but he did have a 9.8% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) and an aDoT over seven yards (it was 7.5).
• Devaughn Vele easily had his best game as a Saint, leading the team with eight targets and delivering an 8/93/1 line.
• I’m still hesitant about him because we have no history of Vele being useful in fantasy, but it certainly seems like the playing time will be there.
• I’m much more interested in playing both Juwan Johnson (seven targets last week) and Chris Olave (six targets), but Vele is a clear option if Olave sits with back spasms.
• Devin Neal dominated the RB work, taking 14 of the 19 RB carries and running 32 routes.
• The biggest surprise was how little Taysom Hill was involved, as he only logged 12 offensive snaps, with one carry and one target.
• Neal is a tough start this week in particular, though, as the Buccaneers have the 3rd-most-efficient run defense in the league and opponents pass on the Bucs at the 2nd-highest rate versus expectation.
• The Saints’ pace, the projected game script, and the Buccaneers’ run defense should elevate the number of pass attempts this week.

Buccaneers (25.5 Implied Points)

• It was an average day for the Buccaneers, almost across the board, last week.
• They were average in PROE, pass efficiency, CPOE, and run efficiency.
• Emeka Egbuka led the team with eight targets, followed by five for Chris Godwin, and no other Buccaneer exceeded three.
• Godwin’s role is increasing as he ran 23 of the 35 team routes and played 87.5% of the 11-personnel snaps, according to PFF.
• But his situation could get murkier as both Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan could return in the near future.
• Bucky Irving dominated the RB carries, taking 17 of the 21, but he did split the routes with Rachaad White.
• The Saints’ run defense has been much better than their pass defense, but opponents have opted to run on the Saints at a high rate anyway.
• I know it’s been rough for Egbuka recently, but he’s still had eight or more targets in his last six games.
• After running too hot on TDs through Week 5, they’ve all but disappeared since.
• I think the pendulum swings back in his favor coming up, with the volume and implied points making both Egbuka and Irving clear starts.

Bengals at Bills (O/U 52.5, BUF -6.0)

Bengals (23.25 Implied Points)

• I think we can throw out most of the passing stats in the Bengals’ table, given Joe Burrow had returned from injury.
• Burrow hit 0.20 EPA per play last week with an 8.3-yard aDoT.
• And the Bengals hit a 3.4% PROE, helping to explain the massive 43 team targets they had last week.
• That volume made Ja’Marr Chase a league-winner last season, and he earned 14 targets last week, followed by eight for Mitch Tinsley (with Tee Higgins sidelined) and seven for Chase Brown.
• Chase and Brown are clear starts, along with Higgins if he’s back from his concussion.
• As we talked about last week, Brown’s snap rate dropped a ton with the return of Samaje Perine, down from about 90% to 59%.
• But we’ll still take 15 carries and 31 routes on what should be one of the more efficient offenses in the league, especially when we’re facing one of the worst run defenses in the league this week.
• You can’t reliably start a Bengals’ TE at this point, as three TEs ran between 15 to 24 of the team’s 50 routes.

Bills (29.25 Implied Points)

• The Bills had a prehistoric -17.4% PROE last week, ending the game with 22 team targets compared to 47 (!) carries.
• Josh Allen ended the day with a fantastic 0.34 EPA per play, with all of that value from receiver yards after the catch or his own rushing.
• And that’s because he had an unfathomable 1.4-yard average target depth.
• A state of emergency should be called in Buffalo to replace Joe Brady and give Allen some weapons that weren’t just signed off the street.
• You’re starting both Allen and James Cook, with Cook taking an insane 32 of 43 RB carries last week and splitting the routes with Ty Johnson.
• But you can’t feel great about starting any other Bills’ player despite the nearly 30 implied points facing one of the worst defenses in the league.
• I guess Dawson Knox is an option if Dalton Kincaid sits because the Bengals’ defense is orders of magnitude worse than any other team in allowing TE TDs.
• But you can’t trust Khalil Shakir anymore because he ran only 14 of the team’s 28 routes last week.
• The Bills should be ashamed. There are so many terrible football teams. There isn’t a reason to make a good one unwatchable.

Seahawks at Falcons (O/U 43.5, SEA -7.5)

Seahawks (25.5 Implied Points)

• Another run-heavy performance from the Seahawks, hitting -8.2% PROE or right around their season-long average.
• The Vikings’ pass defense gave Sam Darnold fits last week, limiting him to a very bad -0.23 EPA per play and -15.9% CPOE on an extremely low 3.6-yard aDoT.
• That performance dropped Darnold down to 6th in full-season EPA per play, with the low aDoT nuking Jaxon Smith-Njigba in fantasy for the first time this season.
• While the Falcons’ pass defense isn’t quite as good as the Vikings’, they’re still above-average in most statistics and top-tier in limiting completions and generating sacks.
• But you’re obviously still starting JSN, with AJ Barner a deep-league option as he actually led the team with five targets last week.
• Zach Charbonnet took one more carry than Kenneth Walker last week, but Walker crucially ran 10 more routes and is a start this week against the Falcons.
• That’s the 2nd-straight week that Walker played over 55% of the Seahawks’ snaps, and he’s taken about 64% of the goal-line snaps since Week 9, according to PFF.
• As insane as this is to say, George Holani landing on IR is also good for both Walker and Charbonnet.

Falcons (18.0 Implied Points)

• Another team with a double-digit negative PROE last week, hitting -10.9%.
• But at least it came with 90th-percentile rushing efficiency.
• Bijan Robinson led Tyler Allgeier 23 to eight in carries and 27 to seven in routes, and he’s a clear start despite going against the most-efficient run defense in the league.
• We just have to temper our expectations with the matchup.
• Kirk Cousins hit above-average efficiency on low volume with a very low 4.7-yard aDoT.
• To his credit, the Falcons were missing Drake London last week, and I’m hoping he’s back against the Seahawks.
• Kyle Pitts is a more appealing play if London sits, as the targets have to go somewhere, with Pitts leading the team with eight last week.
• But in addition to the best run defense in the league, the Seahawks have the 3rd-most efficient pass defense and limit opponents to the 2nd-lowest air yards per attempt.
• My assumption is that we see shallow and inefficient pass attempts from Cousins this week.

Steelers at Ravens (O/U 43.5, BAL -6.0)

Steelers (18.75 Implied Points)

• There’s absolutely no juice to this passing attack.
• The Steelers are now dead-last in air yards per attempt, 26th in explosive pass rate, and 32nd in plays per game as they operate with the 9th-slowest situation-neutral pace.
• Last week was particularly abysmal, with Aaron Rodgers hitting -0.44 EPA per play with -20.2% CPOE (!) on a very low 4.4-yard aDoT.
• The clear top target in the passing attack, DK Metcalf, has not exceeded 55 receiving yards since Week 6.
• I don’t think signing 35-year-old Adam Thielen will save this team.
• I’m not excited to start any WR or TE on the Steelers.
• Jaylen Warren is still my preferred RB as he took five more carries than Kenneth Gainwell last week, but split the routes evenly.
• Coming off a game with a 35% success rate and expected to score only 19 points, I get it if you want to avoid this offense entirely.

Ravens (24.75 Implied Points)

• The Ravens’ 36.2% success rate was barely better than the Steelers’ mark last week.
• Lamar Jackson finished the day with -0.23 EPA per play, but he at least attempted passes down the field with a high 11.9-yard aDoT.
• The five turnovers really explain the inefficiency, though, as Jackson was strip-sacked twice, threw an interception, and then two different receivers lost fumbles after the catch.
• These turnovers are pretty fluky, and I’d be very surprised if the Ravens turn the ball over five times in a game again this season.
• Zay Flowers led the team with seven targets, but his fantasy managers would be surprised to hear that, given his ultimate 2/6/0 line.
• Flowers has dropped below five targets in a game only once this season, but he’s also only scored once all the way back in Week 1.
• He’s a volume-based PPR play this week.
• Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely had solid days, but that’s to be expected against the Bengals’ defense.
• Derrick Henry was also very efficient, but only took 10 carries and ran 10 of the team’s 38 routes.
• He has an excellent matchup this week against a poor Steelers’ run defense.
• With almost 25 implied points, Jackson, Henry, and Flowers are starts, but clearly Jackson is being held back by injuries, and that’s limiting the ceiling of the entire offense.

Colts at Jaguars (O/U 48.5, IND -1.5)

Colts (25.0 Implied Points)

• Another team with double-digit-negative PROE last week, ending the day with -10.4%.
• And they were punished with only 18th-percentile rushing efficiency.
• Daniel Jones’ EPA per play was ok at 0.14, but his -9.6% CPOE was rough.
• The limited targets were really spread around last week, with five players earning between three to five.
• The Colts are starting to turtle a bit, with both their PROE and air yards per attempt dropping recently.
• My guess is that the trend continues this week against a Jaguars’ defense that is below-average in passing success rate but 8th in efficiency due almost exclusively to turnovers.
• I think the Colts try to run at a high rate again this week and avoid interceptions, though this Jaguars’ run defense is no joke, ranking in the top-10 in efficiency, success rate, and explosive run rate.
• Jonathan Taylor is obviously a must-start, and Tyler Warren remains my favorite Colts’ pass catcher in fantasy.

Jaguars (23.5 Implied Points)

• The Jags hit a 0.5% PROE last week, which is downright pass-heavy compared to the rest of the league.
• Trevor Lawrence was willing to push the ball down the field with a 10-yard aDoT, and he hit a very good 0.27 EPA per play along with a +4.2% CPOE.
• That’s one of the first times I can remember Lawrence completing more passes than expected in a game.
• Jakobi Meyers led the team with six targets, followed by Brenton Strange with four, and no other Jaguar exceeded three.
• Both Meyers and Strange are viable starting options to me in a game where the Jags should be pushed to score, and the Colts will be without Sauce Gardner.
• The ultimate RB split looked pretty close with Travis Etienne leading Bhayshul Tuten in carries, 12 to eight, and routes 14 to four.
• But Etienne had the clear lead in attempts in the 1st half when the game was still in doubt.
• Etienne is a clear start against a Colts’ defense that is about average across the board.

Dolphins at Jets (O/U 40.5, MIA -2.5)

Dolphins (21.5 Implied Points)

• The Dolphins managed to win a game with 8th-percentile passing efficiency.
• They have De’Von Achane to thank for that, as he was the lone bright spot for the entire game at 134 yards and a TD on 22 carries.
• His one target was a big surprise, though, as that’s only the 2nd time this season that Achane has earned fewer than four targets.
• Waddle led the team with six targets, and he’s the only other player you’re confidently starting along with Achane.
• I’m personally not starting Darren Waller in a game where the Dolphins only have 21.5 implied points, but I get it if you’re desperate at the TE position.
• Waller’s TD rate was always going to drop from the 40% of his receptions that we saw earlier in the year.
• The Jets’ defense is sneakily good at limiting successful plays, but is dinged a ton by explosive passes.
• However, the Dolphins in their current form are not the team to take advantage of that flaw.

Jets (19.0 Implied Points)

• You’ll find Tyrod Taylor in the upper-right portion of the air yards graph from the intro.
• He had a 9.7-yard average target depth last week and ended the day with an ok 0.12 EPA per play.
• Now, a lot of that was from a big 52-yard TD pass and his own rushing, but it could certainly be worse.
• And the Jets passed at a rate slightly above expectation, leading to 30 team targets versus 22 carries.
• Before we get too excited, though, that’s only the 3rd time this season the Jets had a positive PROE and the first time since Week 5.
• But if the Jets stick with this, we have an offense willing to pass, trying to push the ball down the field, and concentrating their targets on two receivers.
• It’s like the JV version of the Rams.
• Those two receivers are Adonai Mitchell, who earned 11 targets last week, and John Metchie, who earned eight.
• Both ran 40 of the team’s 41 routes, so they’re out there on every passing play.
• You’re going to get massive duds like in Week 12 when Mitchell turned seven targets into a 2/42/0 line.
• But there’s at least *some* potential for juice here, and we cannot say that about every offense.
• And now we get a Dolphins’ pass defense that is dead-last in passing success rate and CPOE.
• Breece Hall dominated the RB work, taking every RB carry and running 22 routes; he’s a clear start.

Titans at Browns (O/U 33.5, CLE -4.5)

Titans (14.5 Implied Points)

• 14.5 implied points with a game total of 33.5 is truly gross.
• Last week, the Titans averaged 3.4 yards per play, lost two fumbles, and only converted 3 of 16 late-down attempts.
• Gunnar Helm led the team with seven targets, and his 52% route share was his second-highest of the season, according to PFF.
• But when Helm is the first skill player I mention, you know things are bad in Tennessee.
• The Titans are averaging fewer than one offensive TD per game, which would be the lowest since at least 2011, according to JJ Zachariason.
• They’re now playing one of the best defenses in the league this week.
• I haven’t suggested starting a Titan in months at this point, and I don’t see that advice changing.

Browns (19.0 Implied Points)

• Following a week when Shedeur Sanders’ EPA per play looked ok due to two big plays, his passing efficiency plummeted to the 15th percentile.
• The Browns were yet another team with a double-digit negative PROE last week in response.
• Harold Fannin led the team with five targets, and he’s clearly iced David Njoku as the preferred TE in fantasy.
• Fannin hit a season-high snap rate, running 28 of the team’s 30 routes compared to only 11 for Njoku.
• He’s the only pass catcher I’m really interested in starting this week.
• But this is the coughing baby vs coughing baby matchup of the week!
• The Browns are dead-last in offensive passing efficiency, success rate, and CPOE, but the Titans are a bottom-seven defense in all of those stats.
• Quinshon Judkins unsurprisingly dominated the RB carries but split the routes.
• Though he did earn an impressive three targets on only 11 routes.
• I’ve bagged on Judkins most of this season because of his lack of receiving work and TD opportunities, but this is a good week for him as the Browns are actually expected to win the game.

Commanders at Vikings (O/U 41.5, MIN -1.5)

Commanders (20.0 Implied Points)

• Marcus Mariota is leading all qualifying QBs in air yards per attempt this season, and he was also 1st in Week 13.
• The target totals are juiced due to overtime, but both Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz earned 13 targets last week, while Deebo Samuel saw seven, and no other Commander exceeded four.
• That’s still very impressive for McLaurin coming back from injury, especially because he earned those targets on only 32 of the team’s 54 routes.
• We should see McLaurin’s route rate improve as he continues to return from his injury, but the total number of routes could be similar in a different game script without OT.
• The RB work is still a mess, with Jeremy McNichols taking six carries and 26 routes, Chris Rodriguez 11 carries and 19 routes, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt four carries and five routes.
• It’s an incredibly difficult matchup for the passing attack, as the Vikings are top-10 in virtually every defensive passing statistic.
• But I’d clearly start McLaurin with Ertz and Samuel also viable due to the air yards in the offense.

Vikings (21.5 Implied Points)

• I really thought it couldn’t get worse than JJ McCarthy.
• It got worse.
• The Vikings’ 20% success rate was the lowest of any team this season, and they didn’t even hit 1st-percentile passing efficiency.
• Jordan Addison led the team with 10 targets, followed by six each for Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson, while no other Viking exceeded four.
• But no one got home in fantasy with Max Brosmer’s -0.79 EPA per play and 4.7-yard aDoT.
• The matchup is much, much better this week against the least-efficient passing defense in the league.
• My assumption is we get McCarthy back in time for this game, which I’m stunned to say is good for the health of the offense.
• It’s a “if not now, when?” game for McCarthy this week.
• The RB work was a mess but largely explained by Aaron Jones hurting his shoulder in the middle of the 3rd quarter and not returning.
• And then Jordan Mason lost work to Zavier Scott, but only because it was garbage-time early against the Seahawks.
• Mason is a viable, if underwhelming, starting option if Jones doesn’t play this week.

Broncos at Raiders (O/U 40.5, DEN -7.5)

Broncos (24.0 Implied Points)

• Bo Nix had an efficient day last week with 0.20 EPA per play.
• But he completed passes at a rate 3.8% below expectation and had the 4th-lowest average target depth of the week at 4.7 yards.
• 58% of Nix’s passing yards came after the catch last week.
• But the team’s 6.6% PROE led to a healthy 41 targets compared to 21 carries.
• Evan Engram actually led the way with nine targets, which was his highest of the season and the first time he exceeded 42 receiving yards.
• Pat Bryant was next with seven targets, which was also a season-high for him.
• Bryant may have passed Troy Franklin on the depth chart as he played more snaps in both 2- and 3-WR sets.
• Courtland Sutton then earned six targets, with no other Bronco exceeding four.
• And RJ Harvey actually saw his role decline last week, as he played on only 47% of the offensive snaps, down from 61% in the previous game.
• Harvey took 13 of the 19 RB carries but ran fewer routes than Tyler Badie, with Jaleel McLaughlin also involved for unknown reasons.
• All of this is to say that the skill player usage here is incredibly difficult to figure out, with Harvey the only Bronco I’m confidently starting this week.

Raiders (16.5 Implied Points)

• The Raiders’ offensive line is bottom-five in both pass and run blocking, according to PFF’s grading system.
• This is the 2nd-consecutive season where the Raiders are absolutely unable to run the ball.
• Last week, the Raiders’ 16 carries netted only 37 yards.
• And then the passing attack hit only a 3.6-yard average target depth as the offensive line can’t keep Geno Smith clean long enough to attempt anything down the field.
• Jeanty is a volume play as he actually led the team with six targets last week and took 15 of the 16 carries.
• Brock Bowers is also a clear start, but based solely on his fantastic talent, which included two TD grabs (where one was a sick catch) last week to help save his four-target day.
• There’s no juice to this offense, and now they face a Broncos’ defense that is 1st in limiting both explosive passes and runs.

Bears at Packers (O/U 44.5, GB -6.5)

Bears (19.0 Implied Points)

• It was a rough game for Caleb Williams despite the win against the Eagles last week.
• He hit -0.09 EPA per pay with -12.5% CPOE on a 7.2-yard aDoT.
• The Bears are down to 31st in the league in CPOE on the season.
• But Williams wasn’t the story of the game as Kyle Monangai and D’Andre Swift ran for 255 yards and two TDs on 40 carries.
• Swift remains the RB you prefer in Chicago, largely because he ran 10 more routes than Monangai last week, even if the carries were split.
• It’s a much tougher test this week against a Packers’ run defense that is 6th in both efficiency and limiting explosive runs, but both Swift and Monangai are viable starts.
• We’re down to four receiving options to consider on the Bears, with Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, and Colston Loveland each earning six targets last week, while DJ Moore earned four.
• The roles for Burden and Loveland continue to grow, and yet there’s still room for more.
• Burden ran 23 of the team’s 40 routes with the Bears using more 11 personnel last week, helping Burden hit a new season high in snaps, according to PFF.
• Loveland, meanwhile, had his highest route share in a game where Cole Kmet was healthy.
• Odunze has almost the exact same problem as Emeka Egbuka, where he was running too hot on TDs early in the season, and they’ve all but disappeared since Week 6.
• But the volume is still there; we just need Williams’ CPOE to improve from the catacombs of the league.
• It’d also be really nice if Burden took Moore’s role and Loveland’s route number separated more from Kmet.
• It should be a fun matchup in the pass game this week as the Bears live off of explosive passes down the field, while the Packers’ defense is the third-best in limiting explosive passes, with opponents opting for the 4th-lowest average target depth against them.

Packers (25.5 Implied Points)

• Last week was the 3rd time this season that the Packers hit a positive PROE.
• It was almost like they were actively trying to win the game!
• Jordan Love was extremely efficient with 0.54 EPA per play and 0.9% CPOE on a very-high 11.4-yard aDoT.
• Christian Watson led the team with 10 targets, followed by seven for analytical darling Dontayvion Wicks, while no other Packer exceeded four.
• I think both Watson and Wicks are starts this week against a Bears’ defense that allows the highest rate of explosive passes in the league.
• Josh Jacobs took 17 of the 21 RB carries but only ran 12 of the team’s 33 routes.
• Chris Brooks took 11 routes as he handled 3rd downs, as he did in Week 12.
• Jacobs is still a clear start with the Packers’ 25.5 implied points and the poor Bears’ run defense, but the lack of routes dings his ceiling.

Rams at Cardinals (O/U 48.5, LAR -7.5)

Rams (28.0 Implied Points)

• Week 13 was an uncharacteristically inefficient day for Matthew Stafford, hitting -0.12 EPA per play.
• But that’s really just from his two interceptions, including a particularly costly pick-six in the 1st quarter.
• We know what we have in this offense, which is a team that is passing with intent, down the field, to a concentrated set of skill players.
• Puka Nacua led the team with nine targets last week, followed by five each for Davante Adams and Colby Parkinson, and no one else exceeded three.
• Parkinson is still tough to trust because he only ran 14 of the team’s 30 routes, but that’s a slight increase with more 11-personnel use and without Tyler Higbee.
• Davante Adams continues to deliver on the Rams’ version of the tush push, which is just a 1-yard Adams slant or fade.
• Adams now has 11 receiving TDs over his last six games, which is clearly not sustainable even if the Rams have made the Hollywood hurl (Ram scam?) a clear intent.
• But both Nacua and Adams are obvious must-starts.
• And I would add Kyren Williams to that list, assuming he’s healthy after exiting the game with an ankle injury in the 2nd quarter before returning in the 3rd quarter.
• Williams ultimately led Blake Corum 13 to seven in carries and 16 to eight in routes, though Corum played very well and is one of the most valuable handcuffs in fantasy.
• The Cardinals’ defense is below-average almost across the board, explaining the Rams’ healthy 28 implied points this week.

Cardinals (20.5 Implied Points)

• The Cardinals hit a 9.1% PROE last week and a massive 61.7% success rate; in Jacoby Brissett, we trust.
• But their 8th-percentile rushing efficiency really sank their chances against one of the best run defenses in the league.
• Things don’t get any easier this week against a Rams run defense that is top-eight in rushing efficiency, success rate, and explosive run rate allowed.
• It feels like weeks since I’ve suggested that maybe Trey Benson is back, so I clearly do not know if Benson is back this week.
• If Benson sits again, I’d prefer to avoid the gross split between Michael Carter and Bam Knight.
• Trey McBride unsurprisingly led the team with nine targets and remains a league-winning player as he’s so fully separating from the other TEs.
• Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr tied with seven targets each, but MHJ was clearly the preferred option prior to hurting his heel.
• My assumption at the time I’m writing is that Harrison misses this game, making Wilson a viable start on volume despite the very difficult matchup.

Texans at Chiefs (O/U 41.5, KC -3.5)

Texans (19.0 Implied Points)

• CJ Stroud had a really good Week 13, hitting 0.24 EPA per play with 6.0% CPOE on a league-high 11.6-yard aDoT.
• Stroud’s now up to 12th in EPA efficiency this season among qualifying QBs.
• Nico Collins led the way with nine targets last week, followed by seven for Dalton Schultz, six for Xavier Hutchinson, five for Jayden Higgins, and no one else above two.
• Higgins has been playing really well lately, but he still has a Hutchinson problem.
• His role has been unchanged in the last four weeks, according to PFF, as he’s still playing less than 50% of the 11-personnel snaps and 64% of the total snaps.
• We’ll need a role change for Higgins to be a clear fantasy start, but there haven’t been any signs to that yet.
• Woody Marks led Nick Chubb 19 to nine in carries and 17 to 14 in routes.
• And that’s despite Marks missing about a quarter of the game to a foot injury that isn’t expected to impact his availability for Week 14.
• Cade Stover’s playing time has increased each week since returning from IR, according to PFF, but it’s just in run situations as a blocker.
• Collins, Schultz, and Marks are clear starts for the Texans.
• I’m really interested to see if the Texans continue to attack down the field against the Chiefs or if the Chiefs once again limit their opponent to an incredibly low aDoT.

Chiefs (22.5 Implied Points)

• The Chiefs are still 1st in PROE on the season, but they’ve averaged only +3% in their last four games, and that span includes a +17.4% PROE in Week 11.
• They had 80th-percentile passing efficiency but only 35th-percentile rushing efficiency last week.
• There just isn’t any juice in this run game, with Kareem Hunt taking 14 carries for only 58 scoreless yards.
• They’re down to 24th in explosive run rate on the season, while this Texans’ defense is top-five in a ton of statistics, including both rushing efficiency and explosive run rate allowed.
• I’d expect the juiceless runs to continue this week.
• Rashee Rice paced the team with 12 targets last week, followed by six each for Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy, while no other Chief exceeded two.
• Rice and Kelce, given the TE landscape, are clear starts even against a Texans’ pass defense that is top-two in efficiency, success rate, and CPOE.
• Worthy is a tougher start given the matchup and lack of connection with Mahomes so far this season.

Eagles at Chargers (O/U 40.5, PHI -3.0)

Eagles (21.75 Implied Points)

• I was wrong in thinking that Week 12’s pass-heavy approach would continue in Week 13.
• The Eagles hit -7.7% PROE and were punished with 19th-percentile rushing efficiency because they simply cannot run the ball with anywhere near the same success as last season.
• This offense was a tough watch last week, consistently failing on early downs and trying to convert on 3rd and long.
• And they 3rd downs at a poor rate of four for 11, with zero Hurts scrambles in the entire game to bail them out.
• AJ Brown led the team with 12 targets, followed by eight for DeVonta Smith, and four for Dallas Goedert.
• Both Brown and Smith are clear starts given the volume concentration, with Goedert a tougher click now that Brown has earned double-digit targets in each of the last three games.
• It’s a very tough matchup against a Chargers’ pass defense that is top-four in success rate, explosive play rate, CPOE, and sack rate.
• Saquon Barkley unsurprisingly dominated the RB work, taking all 13 RB carries and running 21 of the team’s 34 routes.
• But the 60-yard TD runs seemingly aren’t coming this season.

Chargers (18.75 Implied Points)

• The Chargers were yet another team to hit a double-digit negative PROE last week.
• That’s the 2nd-straight negative PROE game after starting the season with a clear lead in passing intent.
• Their 39.3% success rate was poor, but both their passing and rushing efficiency were above the 70th percentile.
• Success on 3rd down really explains that difference, with EPA giving higher weight to key downs and the Chargers converting 12 of their 17 3rd downs last week.
• Justin Herbert hit 0.24 EPA per play with 10.8% CPOE on a 9.6-yard aDoT.
• But he fractured his non-throwing hand, had surgery to repair it, and I’m not certain of his status for this week at the time I’m writing.
• If Herbert sits, I’m not especially interested in starting any Chargers’ skill player, which is unfortunate because the Chargers play on Monday night, so we’ll have to make lineup choices before knowing Herbert’s status.
• If Herbert plays, Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen are my favorite pass catchers, as they led the team with six and five targets, respectively, last week.
• Kimani Vidal dominated the RB work and continued his frustrating pattern of delivering in fantasy every other week.
• But the reports I’ve seen suggest Omarion Hampton is likely to play this week, and I’d be willing to start him if he plays alongside Herbert.
• The weakness of this Eagles’ defense is their rushing success rate, and that dropped from 23rd in the league to 26th this week after the Bears ran all over them on Black Friday.