Hoopes There It Is: Week 11 Game Preview

Nov 12, 2025

Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

Explosive plays dictated outcomes in the NFL last week even more than in a typical slate. The Patriots/Buccaneers game is a great example. The Patriots had a poor 37.1% success rate last week; that was about 11 percentage points below the Buccaneers’. But the Pats hit 62nd-percentile passing efficiency and 96th-percentile rushing efficiency thanks to explosive plays.

The Patriots finally used TreVeyon Henderson the way my teenage self would’ve played him in Madden. Draft the fastest RB and give him tosses outside. His two 50+ yard TD runs, along with a 72-yard TD pass to Kyle “Kayshon Boutte” Williams, let the Pats win a game the success rate numbers say they should have lost.

Meanwhile, the Bucs only had one play that gained more than 25 yards. And that’s ironic for a Buccaneers team that is bottom-10 on the season in both passing and rushing success rate. Their 48.6% success rate last week was about six percentage points above their season average. But they’ve been getting by this season almost exclusively on explosive pass plays, which dried up last week.

And I know they’re not explosive offensive plays, but the Jets won last week with a 26% success rate and 54 passing yards solely because of two special teams’ touchdowns. With explosive plays in mind, the graph below shows explosive pass rate on the x-axis and explosive run rate on the y-axis. An explosive pass is a gain of 20+ yards, while it’s 10+ yards for a run.

Ideally, your fantasy players are on teams in the top-right of the graph. I’ll touch on each of these teams in the game previews below, but the Seahawks and Bears stand out to me. The Seahawks are in their own stratosphere in terms of explosive pass rate. Perhaps they shouldn’t be the 2nd-most run-heavy team in the league?

And most of the teams in the top-right of the graph have similar ranks in terms of their explosive pass rate, success rate, and completion percentage over expectation (CPOE). But not the Bears. They’re 5th in explosive pass rate, but 17th in passing success rate and 28th in CPOE. This is a below-average passing attack if the explosives dry up. Let’s get to the game previews!

Jets at Patriots (Over/Under 43.5, Patriots favored by 11.5)

Jets (16.0 Implied Points)

• An absolutely insane win for the Jets last week.
• They operated with one of the lowest pass rates over expected (PROE) that I’ve ever seen at -21.3%.
• Their 26.0% success rate was also one of the lowest rates I’ve ever seen.
• Justin Fields ended the day with only 11 pass attempts and 54 passing yards, but was still somehow able to take three sacks.
• Breece Hall had 42 of those yards on one reception.
• Garrett Wilson re-injured his knee, and initial reports suggest he’ll be out for three to four weeks.
• But they won the game because of a 99-yard kick return TD and a 74-yard punt return TD.
• No player exceeded two targets last week, and if Wilson misses Week 11, you can’t start any Jets receiver.
• I’d be willing to start Hall, as he at least dominated the RB carries last week on a team that is only willing to run the ball.
• But it’s a brutal matchup against one of the best run defenses in the league.

Patriots (27.5 Implied Points)

• As mentioned in the intro, it was a poor success rate game for the Patriots last week, but they won on the back of three explosive TDs.
• Drake Maye only hit 0.09 EPA/play with -5.9% CPOE on a very high 11.3-yard aDoT.
• Mack Hollins actually led the way with 10 targets, followed by seven for Stefon Diggs, with no one else exceeding four.
• That includes Kyle Williams, who is doing his best Kayshon Boutte impression by delivering a splash TD on only two targets.
• It was a massive breakout game for TreVeyon Henderson with the two long TDs, and he took 14 of the team’s 19 RB carries and ran 25 of the team’s 36 routes.
• Going into last week, the Patriots were 30th in EPA per attempt on carries to the inside and marginally better at 25th on carries to the outside, according to SIS.
• Henderson himself was at -0.13 EPA per attempt on inside carries but +0.06 on outside carries, and that is going to improve further after last week.
• My assumption is that Rhamondre Stevenson will miss Week 11, and if that’s the case, Henderson is a fantastic start as 11.5-point home favorites against a below-average Jets run defense.

Commanders at Dolphins (O/U 47.5, MIA -2.5)

Commanders (22.5 Implied Points)

• Not quite to the same extent as the Jets, but the Commanders established the damn run last week, hitting a prehistoric -15.8% PROE.
• And that was certainly a choice (derogatory), going against a Lions team that scored on every possession before running out the clock on their last drive.
• Marcus Mariota actually had a really good game, hitting 0.39 EPA per play with 14.3% CPOE on a very-high 13.1-yard aDoT.
• As mentioned, though, it was on relatively low volume despite the blowout loss.
• Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz led the team with five targets each, and I think they’re uninspiring fantasy starts against a very bad Dolphins pass defense.
• You can’t reasonably start any RB, though, as it was a gross three-way split for routes.

Dolphins (25.0 Implied Points)

• Another massively-run-heavy team last week, with the Dolphins hitting -14.2% PROE.
• But they earned 94th percentile rushing efficiency on that high volume thanks to De'Von Achane's explosives and a poor Bills’ run defense.
• Achane had 59- and 35-yard TD runs, while Jaylen Waddle got a 38-yard explosive receiving TD.
• Tua Tagovailoa’s stats were fantastic on low volume, hitting 0.43 EPA per play with 5.9% CPOE on a surprisingly high 9.0-yard aDoT.
• And we know exactly who to start on this offense: it’s Achane and Waddle and no one else.
• The Commanders’ defense just allowed the Lions to score on every one of their drives and are dead last in defensive pass efficiency.

Texans at Titans (O/U 39.5, HOU -7.5)

Texans (23.5 Implied Points)

• We don’t need to dwell on the passing efficiency from last week too much, as I’m assuming that C.J. Stroud is back this week.
• But Davis Mills played alright in a wild comeback win for the Texans, as they outscored the Jaguars 26-0 in the 4th quarter.
• With the context that there were 43 total targets to go around (compare that to 9 for the Jets), Nico Collins earned 14, Dalton Schultz 11, and Jayden Higgins seven, with no other Texan exceeding four.
• It’s still a route mess for WRs after Collins, but the rookies continue to play more, and Xavier Hutchinson continues to play less.
• And Woody Marks completely took over the backfield last week.
• Marks led Nick Chubb in carries, 14 to five, routes 27 to five, and snaps 60 to 10.
• Chubb was dealing with a foot injury going into the game, so perhaps his snap share bounces back in the future?
• But I’m confidently starting both Collins and Marks this week against a bottom-six pass and rush defense.
• I’m personally not chasing the other receivers as their target totals were juiced up last week, given the game environment, and I’d be surprised if the Texans fall behind in this one.

Titans (16.0 Implied Points)

• The Titans are bottom-four in series success rate, passing efficiency, passing success rate, CPOE, sack rate, and rushing efficiency.
• They’re playing the most efficient defense in the league this week.
• If you’re somehow torn between starting a Titans player and some other player, pick the other player.

Packers at Giants (O/U 44.5, GB -8.5)

Packers (26.5 Implied Points)

• Last week was brutal for both the Packers’ offense and anyone watching Monday Night Football.
• The Packers leaned heavily into the run with a -10.3% PROE but hit only a 34th-percentile rushing efficiency for their efforts.
• To be fair, the pass game was even worse, with Jordan Love ending the day with -0.10 EPA per play with -6.5% CPOE on an 8.4-yard aDoT.
• His numbers were hurt a bit by three sacks and a bad fumble right before the end of the first half.
• Five players earned between four and six targets, making this situation difficult to predict for fantasy, with Romeo Doubs’ 4th-quarter injury not helping things for fantasy managers.
• Josh Jacobs is the only must-start player on the offense, as he was given 21 of the 22 RB carries and ran 25 of the team’s 42 routes.
• Jacobs now gets to face the worst run defense in football in Week 11.

Giants (18.0 Implied Points)

• The Giants ended with 40th-percentile passing efficiency last week, but they only scored three points on four drives after Jaxson Dart exited with a concussion.
• Dart played pretty well, hitting 0.19 EPA per play with 8.7% CPOE on a 9.3-yard aDoT.
• And that efficiency includes a big expected points loss from a fumble when he got hurt.
• Darius Slayton also looked really good before suffering a hamstring injury in the 2nd quarter that limited him for the rest of the game.
• Wan’Dale Robinson and Theo Johnson ultimately led the way with eight or more targets each, with no one else exceeding four.
• Tyrone Tracy out-carried Devin Singletary 14 to eight and ran 23 routes to Singletary’s eight.
• But Singletary is playing in short-yardage and goal-line situations, limiting Tracy’s ceiling.
• When Dart plays, he’ll soak up a lot of the green zone rush attempts.
• But when Dart doesn’t play, the offense has to suffer through Russell Wilson.
• Johnson is at least seeing volume, and so you could do worse at TE, but I’d be more hesitant if Wilson is at QB.

Buccaneers at Bills (O/U 49.5, BUF -5.5)

Buccaneers (22.0 Implied Points)

• As mentioned in the intro, the Buccaneers had a really solid success rate last week but lost the game due to a lack of explosive plays.
• Baker Mayfield ended the day with a below-average 0.03 EPA per play with -2.8% CPOE on a 6.3-yard aDoT.
• The game script dictated a high number of pass attempts, and so we got 43 team targets last week.
• That’s the context needed for both Emeka Egbuka and Cade Otton seeing 12+ targets.
• But we might see that game script again this week, making both Egbuka and Otton clear starts.
• Tez Johnson only saw five targets but had two TDs to boost his fantasy day.
• Rachaad White and Sean Tucker split the carries last week, but White led Tucker 31 to 10 in routes.
• I’m assuming Bucky Irving is out again this week based on the fact that there still isn’t a timetable for his return.
• I’m personally still starting White, especially in PPR leagues, and hoping for receiving volume.
• But Tucker is also viable in deeper leagues because this Bills run defense is awful and just got destroyed by the Dolphins.

Bills (27.5 Implied Points)

• Last week was the worst game for the Bills’ offense in recent memory.
• They hit only 4th-percentile rushing efficiency on relatively low volume, with James Cook’s 13 carries netting 53 yards.
• Cook also split the routes with Ty Johnson but still managed five targets and five receptions.
• Josh Allen ended the day with a below-average 0.05 EPA per play with 7.7% CPOE on a high 10.1-yard aDoT.
• His efficiency was dinged by a fumble, an interception, and three sacks.
• Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman led the way with eight or more targets each, with Coleman saving his day with a TD because he only caught three of those targets.
• Dalton Kincaid only ran 13 routes after suffering a hamstring injury in the 2nd half, and he’s likely out against the Bucs.
• To me, that limits the Bills I’m confidently starting to just Allen, Cook, and Shakir.
• It’s a tough matchup for Cook in this one, as the Buccaneers have an elite run defense and opponents opt to pass on the Bucs at one of the highest rates in the league.

Bears at Vikings (O/U 48.5, MIN -3.0)

Bears (22.75 Implied Points)

• A wild win for the Bears last week, as they scored 17 points on their final four drives to get the win.
• They’re now below-average in success rate through the first three quarters but 7th in the 4th quarter this season.
• Caleb Williams finished the day with 0.09 EPA per play but -8.2% CPOE on a 9.6-yard aDoT.
• Williams had great rushing value that offset poor passing success.
• Rome Odunze re-took target volume, leading the way with 10, while D'Andre Swift earned seven, and no one else exceeded four.
• Swift only ran seven more routes than Kyle Monangai, but earned a lot of targets on those routes.
• Swift also out-carried Monangai 13 to 7, making him the clear RB you want in Chicago for now, at least.
• D.J. Moore hurt his shoulder last week, and I’m not certain about his status at the time I’m writing.
• But Luther Burden might finally get a larger route share if Moore is out for any extended time.
• I think we see a healthy dose of the RBs in this one, as the Bears are 24th in PROE, and opponents run on the Vikings at the 2nd-highest rate versus expectation because they have a much stronger pass defense than run defense.

Vikings (25.75 Implied Points)

• It was a poor game from J.J. McCarthy last week, but again, not as catastrophic as we saw earlier this season.
• He ended the day with -0.10 EPA per play with -11.6% CPOE on a high 10.9-yard aDoT.
• Game script dictated the Vikings to pass, so they ended the day with 34 team targets versus only 14 carries.
• Justin Jefferson dominated the targets with 12, while Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor each earned six.
• Aaron Jones earned five targets, with no other player exceeding two.
• Jones dominated the RB work over Jordan Mason, leading in carries, nine to four, and routes, 32 to nine.
• Ultimately, Mason only played 16 of the team’s 65 snaps.
• While this could change in the weeks ahead, Mason is best viewed purely as a handcuff to Jones at this point and needs to be left on benches.
• The Vikings get to play a below-average Bears defense this week that has allowed the highest rate of explosive pass attempts in the league.
• You can safely start Jefferson, Addison, and Jones in this one, and hope McCarthy’s accuracy improves on passes to Addison.

Bengals at Steelers (O/U 49.5, PIT -5.5)

Bengals (22.0 Implied Points)

• Just four weeks ago, Ja’Marr Chase earned 23 targets against this Steelers defense.
• Here’s hoping the Steelers have a better (any?) plan against Chase in this one.
• To their credit, the Steelers’ defense has played better in recent weeks, limiting two high-powered offenses in the Colts and Chargers to below-average days.
• But you’re still starting your typical Bengals in Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown.

Steelers (27.5 Implied Points)

• This is a healthy implied point total for the Steelers after hitting 2nd-percentile passing efficiency last week.
• I wrote last week that the Steelers couldn’t keep getting away with this, and it finally caught up to them; you love to see it.
• Aaron Rodgers had a brutal -0.50 EPA per play with -10.8% CPOE on an 8.1-yard aDoT.
• DK Metcalf and Calvin Austin each earned seven targets, with no other Steeler seeing more than three.
• Jaylen Warren dominated the RB carries but only ran 10 routes to Kenneth Gainwell’s 25.
• But the Steelers get to play the worst defense in the league this week, as the Bengals are bottom-three in defensive passing efficiency, passing success rate, explosive pass rate, rushing efficiency, and rushing success rate.
• That makes Metcalf and Warren clear starts this week.

Panthers at Falcons (O/U 42.5, ATL -3.5)

Panthers (19.5 Implied Points)

• In a rare game the Panthers were expected to win, they lost by 10 to the lowly Saints.
• They leaned heavily into the run like always, but only got 8th-percentile rushing efficiency out of it.
• They had limited explosive plays, were poor on late downs, and had multiple turnovers.
• Bryce Young finished the day with a rough -0.22 EPA per play with 2.8% CPOE on a low 6.5-yard aDoT.
• Tetairoa McMillan led the way with eight targets, with Ja'Tavion Sanders seeing five despite a season-low snap rate, and no other Panther exceeded three.
• Sanders earned those five targets on only 11 routes.
• Rico Dowdle dominated the RB work again, leading Chuba Hubbard in carries, 18 to three, and routes, 15 to eight.
• Dowdle saved an otherwise inefficient day with a touchdown.
• The Falcons have an above-average pass defense, and they’re second in the league in sack rate, so it’s fair to question the ceiling for any Panthers’ receiver, including McMillan.
• Dowdle is the only must-start in my opinion against a bottom-five run defense, but we’ll likely be relying on a TD like we did last week.

Falcons (23.0 Implied Points)

• A weird game for the Falcons last week as they were awful in some high leverage scenarios, going zero for eight on 3rd downs, but fantastic in others, scoring TDs on all three of their red zone trips.
• Michael Penix struggled to -0.13 EPA per play with -16.3 CPOE on a high 10.3-yard aDoT.
• After running a lot of cardio in the prior week, Darnell Mooney actually led the team with eight targets, followed by seven for Drake London, and five for Kyle Pitts.
• Bijan Robinson dominated Tyler Allgeier on routes 28 to eight, but he only saw six more rush attempts.
• And it was a frustrating day for Robinson fantasy managers as Allgeier got both of the rushing TDs.
• From Week 7 on, Allgeier has three rushing TDs to Robinson’s zero, largely because Allgeier has five carries within the opponents’ 10-yard line over that span compared to only one for Robinson, according to JJ Zachariason.
• London and Robinson are the only players I’m confidently starting, but I think you could make cases for both Pitts and Allgeier depending on your league settings.

Chargers at Jaguars (O/U 43.5, LAC -3.0)

Chargers (23.25 Implied Points)

• It was a rough game for Justin Herbert last week, ending with a bad -0.11 EPA per play with -14.1% CPOE on a very low 4.7-yard aDoT.
• Quentin Johnston led the way with eight targets, followed by six each for Ladd McConkey and Oronde Gadsden, with no other Charger exceeding four.
• Gadsden earned all of those targets in the first three quarters before exiting with a quad bruise.
• The injury doesn’t sound long-term, but my assumption as of now is that he sits this week.
• After playing poorly in Week 9, Kimani Vidal retained a workhorse role, taking 25 of the 26 RB carries and limiting Jaret Patterson to only four snaps.
• I’d expect fewer rush attempts in this one, as the Chargers are 2nd in PROE and opponents pass on the Jaguars at the highest rate in the league due to their below-average pass defense and strong run defense.
• Regardless, I think Vidal, McConkey, and Johnston are all starts assuming Gadsden is out.

Jaguars (20.25 Implied Points)

• Last week was another game where Trevor Lawrence finished with outlier-level bad CPOE marks, hitting -14.4%.
• The Jaguars are now 31st in the league in CPOE this year.
• And the volume was really low last week as well, which typically isn’t a problem for this Jags team that is 2nd in plays per game.
• The WRs are really beat up, with Brian Thomas Jr missing last week and Travis Hunter now having season-ending surgery.
• Parker Washington led the way with four targets last week, and the rest of the targets were really spread around.
• Travis Etienne dominated the RB carries but split the routes with both LeQuint Allen and Bhayshul Tuten.
• Tuten played a career-high 42.1% of the offensive snaps in normal, early-down situations last week, according to PFF, but was inefficient on that work.
• The Chargers are top-four in most passing defense stats, so I’m not very excited to start any receiver, but I think Travis Etienne can still be started.

Seahawks at Rams (O/U 48.5, LAR -2.5)

Seahawks (23.0 Implied Points)

• I’m really excited for this matchup.
• The Seahawks are 1st in nearly every passing stat, but they only pass the ball more than the Jets relative to expectation.
• They only had 12 pass attempts last week, good enough for -20.8% PROE, in a blowout win over the Cardinals.
• It was 35-0 with more than eight minutes left in the first half.
• I’ll venture a guess that we’ll see more pass attempts this week against the Rams.
• Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet had the same number of carries (14) last week, but we also got George Holani in our lives for seven carries and a rushing TD.
• But six of Holani’s seven carries were in the final 10 minutes of the blowout, meaning I think we’re still in a two-man committee, rather than three.
• The Rams are the 3rd-most efficient pass and rush defense in the league, meaning it’s a tough matchup for the Seahawks here.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the only must-start Seahawk until we see Rashid Shaheed fully step into the number two role.
• You have to imagine that’s going to happen quickly for a player they gave up multiple draft picks to acquire on an expiring contract.

Rams (25.5 Implied Points)

• The Rams did anything they wanted against an injured 49ers defense last week.
• Their 65.5% success rate was the best number for any team in any week this year.
• Matthew Stafford hit a massive 0.61 EPA per play with 10.6% CPOE on a healthy 9.2-yard aDoT.
• Davante Adams led the way with eight targets, but did hurt his back during the game.
• Initial reports make it sound like he’ll be able to play this week, so that’s my assumption at the time I’m writing.
• Adams and Puka Nacua are must-starts every week on an offense that is 4th in PROE and 2nd in air yards per attempt.
• Matthew Stafford has 13 passing TDs in his last three games; that’s more than Geno Smith, Bryce Young, and Trevor Lawrence have all season.
• The Kyren Williams and Blake Corum rotation by drive continued for the second-straight week, meaning I think this is a real thing.
• They ultimately split the carries, though Williams ran 19 routes to Corum’s seven, meaning Williams is still the preferred RB play, but Corum is viable depending on your league format.
• Four TEs had between 22 and 39 snaps and between eight to 15 routes last week, as the Rams continue to get explosive plays out of 3-TE sets.
• But the rotation at TE means you can’t be confident starting any of them.
• Opponents tend to pass on the Seahawks at the 5th-highest rate in the league because they have the most-efficient run defense in the NFL.
• I’m really excited to see both Nacua and Adams in this one.

49ers at Cardinals (O/U 48.5, SF -2.5)

49ers (25.5 Implied Points)

• While the 49ers' defense couldn’t do anything last week, Mac Jones played really well on offense.
• Jones hit 0.42 EPA per play with 15.0% CPOE on a 7.2-yard aDoT.
• Jones is now 12th in EPA efficiency among qualifying QBs, which is still below where we’ve seen Brock Purdy, but perhaps better than an injured-Purdy in the short-term.
• My assumption is we see Jones again this week, and that Ricky Pearsall also sits, but it’s tough to say at the time I’m writing.
• Jauan Jennings, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle each earned nine targets last week, with no other 49er exceeding four.
• Those are the three players I’m confident starting this week against the Cardinals.
• Brian Robinson did eat into CMC’s carries last week, taking eight compared to CMC’s 12.
• But 12 carries and nine targets for CMC is still fantastic usage.
• And this Cardinals defense is much, much worse than the Rams’ defense they played last week.

Cardinals (23.0 Implied Points)

• Last week was a rough game for Jacoby Brissett, hitting -0.18 EPA per play with -9.9% CPOE on a 7.4-yard aDoT.
• The Cardinals were massively behind almost right away in the game, and leaned on the pass with a 7.8% PROE in an effort to catch up.
• That’s the context needed for the very high 43 team targets, with Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. each earning 12+.
• You’re starting both McBride and Harrison every week, with Brissett competent enough to pepper them with targets on a team with a bad defense.
• And it’s a great matchup this week against a very-injured 49ers defense that got demolished by the Rams last week.
• The RB situation is trickier to sort through, as Bam Knight led the team with 10 carries last week but split the routes with Emari Demercado.
• Michael Carter also played eight snaps, but only after Knight injured his ankle in the 3rd quarter and didn’t return to the game.
• My assumption now is that Knight misses this week, along with Trey Benson, making Demercado my preferred option over Carter, but, to be honest, I’d rather not play either of them.

Ravens at Browns (O/U 40.5, BAL -7.5)

Ravens (24.0 Implied Points)

• It was a bad game for Lamar Jackson last week relative to his high standards, hitting only 0.07 EPA per play with a rough -13.5% CPOE on a very low 4.1-yard aDoT.
• Jackson was blitzed on 58.0% of his dropbacks last week, and responded by getting the ball out quickly with a low target depth.
• His 2.59 average time-to-throw was the 3rd-fastest on the week, according to Next Gen Stats.
• Zay Flowers led the way with six targets, while both Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely got involved with five and four targets, respectively.
• Andrews ran six more routes than Likely last week, but it’s still just south of 70% of the team’s total.
• If you’re starting Andrews, you’re really just hoping his insane redzone usage continues.
• Derrick Henry unsurprisingly dominated the RB work with 20 of the team’s 25 carries, but running just 18 of 33 routes.
• You’re confidently starting Jackson, Henry, and Flowers, and then Andrews is a TD play.

Browns (16.5 Implied Points)

• The Browns were the clearly superior offense versus their opponent last week, which is rare to say.
• They were 41st-percentile in both pass and rush efficiency, though Gabriel’s six sacks and low aDoT really limit the ceiling of this offense.
• They’re dead-last in explosive pass rate and 25th in explosive run rate this season.
• Jerry Jeudy woke up with 12 targets last week and a TD, followed by seven targets for Harold Fannin, and no other Brown exceeded four.
• Quinshon Judkins dominated the carries, but it was a three-way route split with both Dylan Sampson and Jerome Ford.
• I’ve said this for weeks, but it’s tough for Judkins to hit a ceiling without TD opportunities on a bad offense, along with limited receiving work.
• At just 16.5 implied points, I’m not excited to start any Brown, but I get it with Jeudy, Fannin, and Judkins.

Chiefs at Broncos (O/U 43.5, KC -3.5)

Chiefs (23.5 Implied Points)

• This Chiefs’ offense is a powerhouse, though it is more success-rate-based than built on explosives.
• For a team with the 2nd-most efficient offense in the league, they’re only 11th in explosive pass rate and 25th in explosive run rate.
• And it’s a brutal matchup this week against a Broncos’ defense that is 2nd-best against the pass and 6th-best against the run.
• Rashee Rice is a must-start every week, and he’s near the top of my expected points per game metric for WRs, given both his target volume and his great usage near the goal-line.
• I also get it with Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy, though it’s been rough for Worthy since Rice’s return from suspension.
• My assumption is Isiah Pacheco sits once again this week, meaning Kareem Hunt is likely to dominate the RB work once again.
• Hunt has seen more than two targets only once this season, and he’s an inefficient runner.
• But Hunt has a fantastic goal-line role, meaning you’re just betting on a TD if you play him.
• There are worse offenses to make that bet on, though.

Broncos (20.0 Implied Points)

• It was a rough game for Bo Nix last week, hitting -0.31 EPA per play with -7.2% CPOE on an 8.8-yard aDoT.
• I am transparently not a film guy, but to me, every Nix dropback looks like he’s making up pressure in his head, leaving the pocket, and then throwing an off-platform pass down the field.
• The Broncos were also hurt by their coaching staff last week, as they passed up four 4th-down opportunities that would’ve increased their win probability by at least 1%.
• Troy Franklin easily paced the team with nine targets last week, catching five of them for 40 yards and a TD.
• Franklin is a clear start in games where Nix is accurate down the field, but a clear fade in games where Nix lacks that accuracy.
• Your guess is as good as mine on that front, with some conflicting data points on this Chiefs’ defense.
• They allow a high rate of completions relative to expectation, but teams opt to throw short against them.
• JK Dobbins dominated the RB carries last week but split the routes with both RJ Harvey and Tyler Badie.
• But Dobbins hurt his foot last week, and while we don’t know his status, he sought a second medical opinion, meaning he didn’t like the first one.
• Based solely on that information, my assumption is Dobbins sits this week, making Harvey a fantastic start.
• But just know we’re going to see way more Badie than anyone wants.

Lions at Eagles (O/U 46.5, PHI -2.5)

Lions (22.0 Implied Points)

• The Lions actually passed the ball more than expected last week, which is rare for them as they’re 29th in PROE on the season.
• But really anything they did worked last week, hitting a 59.6% success rate, 98th-percentile passing efficiency, and 96th-percentile rushing efficiency.
• They scored on every possession before running out the clock on their last drive.
• Jared Goff was massively efficient, but his 4.9-yard aDOT indicates that all of the passing value came from receiver yards after the catch.
• You’re starting Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta every week.
• Jameson Williams actually popped up with seven targets, and there seemed to be a clear intent to get him the ball.
• Perhaps that’s correlated with Dan Campbell taking over play-calling duties?
• The RB work was split right down the middle, though I don’t think Jahmyr Gibbs’ managers are complaining about a 172-yard, 3-TD day.
• ARSB, LaPorta, Williams, and Gibbs are all starts, with David Montgomery also an option depending on your league format.
• The weakness of this Eagles’ defense is their rushing success rate allowed.

Eagles (24.5 Implied Points)

• The PROE numbers continue to fluctuate wildly for the Eagles, as they were -11.4% last week.
• They ended the day with a rough 30.9% success rate and 9th-percentile rushing efficiency.
• They only won the game because of two passing explosives: a 41-yard completion to Saquon Barkley and a 36-yard TD to DeVonta Smith.
• Those explosives drove up Jalen Hurts’ efficiency to 0.13 EPA per play with -0.8% CPOE on an 8.8-yard aDoT.
• Hurts’ numbers were also hurt by a fumble, but he took zero sacks on the day.
• DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert dominated the targets with seven and six, respectively.
• AJ Brown only saw three targets, so I just don’t know how you can confidently say what he is in fantasy on a weekly basis at this point.
• Saquon Barkley dominated the RB work with 22 of the 29 RB carries, and he ran 16 of the team’s 29 routes.
• Barkley, Smith, and Goedert are all starts, and I think you just keep starting Brown, in my opinion, but it’s been rough.

Cowboys at Raiders (O/U 50.5, DAL -3.5)

Cowboys (27.0 Implied Points)

• The Cowboys remain fun in fantasy because they have the 6th-most efficient offense and the 2nd-worst defense in the league.
• And the offensive work is concentrated on four players: CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Javonte Williams, and Jake Ferguson.
• The Raiders’ defense is about average across the board, so I’m confidently starting all four of those players with a healthy 27 implied points.

Raiders (23.5 Implied Points)

• This is a high implied point number for a Raiders team coming off a game with 3rd-percentile passing efficiency.
• Geno Smith hit a gross -0.50 EPA per play with -6.7% CPOE on an insanely low 2.2-yard aDoT.
• Has Geno Smith thrown a pass down the field in like four games?
• The Raiders were near the top of the league in air yards per attempt earlier this season, and they now find themselves in 31st.
• Smith is also now only above Cam Ward in EPA per play among qualifying QBs.
• Brock Bowers somehow only saw three targets last week, with Tyler Lockett leading the way with six.
• That’s frankly coaching malpractice.
• Ashton Jeanty dominated the RB work with 19 of the 20 RB carries, and he ran 26 of the team’s 35 routes.
• You’re starting both Bowers and Jeanty, with the hope that we get something closer to the 13-target game for Bowers we saw just two weeks ago.