Hoopes There It Is: Week 9 Game Preview

Oct 29, 2025

Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Im

We ultimately only had one game in Week 8 where the final score was determined by one possession. And it was the Jets/Bengals shootout just like everyone expected. The NFL definitely felt like a “have” and “have-not” league last week. And fantasy football can feel like that as well. The graph below shows QB air yards per game on the x-axis and efficiency (EPA per dropback) on the y-axis. It includes every projected starter moving forward with the exception of J.J. McCarthy. McCarthy’s exclusion is due to his EPA mark making every other QB hard to see on the graph (derogatory).

My expected points model for receivers *really* likes air yards. And those air yards are dependent both on the number of pass attempts in the offense and the distribution of those passes. That’s why I like air yards per game as a stat. Sam Darnold doesn’t have that many attempts, but he’s tossing them deep and efficiently when he does dropback. And so, he can land in the target quadrant despite the lack of volume.

If you’re looking for ceiling games from a receiving group, I’m looking at teams like the Colts, Chiefs, Seahawks, Cowboys, and Rams, that have efficient passing attacks with air-yard potential. These are the “have” teams while the Browns, Jets, Dolphins, and Raiders are the “have-nots”. Here’s hoping your fantasy team is a “have”. To be honest, if you’re still reading this in Week 9, you’re probably a “have”, so congrats to you! Let’s dig into the games, you glorious “have”!

Ravens at Dolphins (Over/Under 51.5, BAL favored by 7.5)

Ravens (29.5 Implied Points)

• My assumption here is Lamar Jackson plays, though that was my assumption last week as well.
• With that in mind, I think we can throw out most of the season-to-date stats for the Ravens’ offense, given how much time Jackson has missed.
• Zay Flowers dominated the targets once again last week, earning nine of the team’s 21 targets, with no other receiver seeing more than three.
• Similarly, Derrick Henry took 21 of the 26 RB carries, though he only ran 11 of the team’s 26 routes.
• Every RB has completely destroyed this Dolphins run defense…except Bijan Robinson last week.
• At nearly 30 implied points, you’re confidently starting Jackson, Flowers, and Henry.
• The TEs are trickier to suggest, given they’re essentially splitting the routes, with Isaiah Likely actually running more routes (16) than Mark Andrews last week (15).

Dolphins (22.0 Implied Points)

• Tua Tagovailoa was in the avoid quadrant in the air yards graph in the intro.
• And that’s because, even in an efficient game last week, he averaged an insane 4.0-yard average target depth.
• All of Tagovailoa’s efficiency was driven through receiver yards after the catch, with his limited deep shots almost entirely going in Jaylen Waddle’s direction.
• Surprisingly, Tagovailoa only has two games this season with negative EPA per play.
• But those two games were so awful that they’ve driven down the Dolphins’ passing efficiency to 24th overall.
• It’s a fantastic matchup this week against a Ravens’ defense that is extremely injured and bottom-eight in nearly every defensive category.
• Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane are clear starts, with Malik Washington at least interesting given his five targets last week and the great matchup.

Vikings at Lions (O/U 47.5, DET -8.5)

Vikings (19.5 Implied Points)

• It was a rough game for Carson Wentz last week, but there’s no real need to dwell on it because Wentz’s shoulder surgery is knocking him out for the rest of the season.
• One continued concern for this offense, though, was their 0% successful run rate last week to go along with 1st-percentile efficiency.
• The Chargers’ run defense was 28th in the league going into last week as well.
• And it’s not a great sign that J.J. McCarthy’s EPA per dropback was so bad that I couldn’t fit him onto the graph in the intro.
• You’re starting Justin Jefferson, who dominated the targets last week with 10 of the team’s 27 total.
• The RBs are a bit trickier, as Aaron Jones led Jordan Mason in routes 18 to 10, with the assumption that it was because the Vikings were in comeback mode.
• However, that is the projected game script again this week.
• At below 20 implied points, Jefferson is the only player I really want to start on this offense until we see something from McCarthy.

Lions (28.0 Implied Points)

• Jared Goff was in the efficient but low-volume quadrant in the air yards graph.
• The Lions are 31st in the league in air yards per attempt and 31st in pass rate over expected.
• But we at least have an extremely-efficient attack when they do drop back, though they’ll need to be pushed to do it.
• That is not likely to happen this week.
• You’re starting up the Lions you typically start, but my guess is this is a game for the RBs.
• The Lions are 8.5-point favorites at home, the Vikings pass defense is much stronger than their run defense, and teams run on the Vikings at the 2nd-highest rate versus expectation in the league.

Chargers at Titans (O/U 43.5, LAC -10.0)

Chargers (26.75 Implied Points)

• The Chargers had a -3.9% pass rate over expectation (PROE) last week.
• But their called-pass rate was right in line with their season average in the first half, before going very run-heavy up multiple scores in the 2nd half.
• Justin Herbert was fantastic last week, hitting 0.46 EPA per play with a 9.1% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) on a solid 8.2-yard average target depth.
• Ladd McConkey dominated the targets last week with 10, as Keenan Allen and Oronde Gadsden both earned five, and no one else exceeded two.
• Gadsden played 87% of the Chargers’ snaps in the first three quarters and is a seemingly for-real part of this offense.
• Kimani Vidal took 23 of the 36 RB carries and ran 20 of the 24 RB routes.
• Vidal is likely to see a lot of work in the 2nd half again this week.
• Omarion Hampton is eligible to return from IR in Week 10, though all of the reporting so far has suggested he won’t be ready then.
• McConkey, Allen, Gadsden, and Vidal are all great starts with nearly 27 implied points against a bad Titans’ defense.

Titans (16.75 Implied Points)

• Starting with the positives for the Titans, as always, their 43.2% success rate wasn’t terrible last week, and they had 80th-percentile rushing efficiency.
• But their 28th-percentile passing efficiency simply isn’t good enough, hurt by bad performances on 3rd downs and multiple 4th down failures.
• The targets were concentrated among three receivers last week, with Elic Ayomanor, Chimere Dike, and Van Jefferson each earning eight targets.
• Dike actually had a solid game with seven receptions and 93 receiving yards, nearly doubling his season yards total.
• Jefferson, meanwhile, turned his eight targets into one reception for six yards.
• Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears had almost exactly the same number of carries and routes, with the hope that Pollard is traded before the deadline to open up opportunities for each of them.
• My preference is to continue starting zero Titans.

Colts at Steelers (O/U 50.5, IND -3.0)

Colts (26.75 Implied Points)

• The Colts’ 0.16 EPA per play running the ball would be good enough for 9th among 33 qualifying QBs in EPA per dropback.
• And they turned in another 99th-percentile rushing efficiency performance last week.
• The only relevant fantasy news from the ground game was DJ Giddens landing as a healthy inactive, with Ameer Abdullah seemingly the handcuff RB you want on the Colts now.
• Michael Pittman led the team in targets last week with nine, as Alec Pierce and Tyler Warren each earned five, and no one else exceeded three.
• In addition to Jonathan Taylor, Pittman and Warren remain strong starts against a below-average Steelers defense.
• I don’t bet on money lines, spreads, team totals, etc, but c’mon, the Colts should be favored by more than three.

Steelers (23.75 Implied Points)

• It was a rough game for the Steelers’ offense last week, hitting only a 35.8% success rate and 25th-percentile passing efficiency.
• They kept the game close with a 12.5-EPA advantage in special teams and penalties, partially due to two missed field goals by the Packers.
• But the Steelers didn’t gain a 1st down on four of their six possessions in the 2nd half.
• DK Metcalf led the team in targets with seven, while Calvin Austin earned six, Roman Wilson five, and no one else exceeded four.
• Jaylen Warren remains the RB you want in Pittsburgh, seeing 13 carries to Kenneth Gainwell’s five, and running 23 routes to Gainwell’s 14.
• Metcalf and Warren are the only skill players I really want to start.

Falcons at Patriots (O/U 44.5, NE -5.5)

Falcons (19.5 Implied Points)

• I don’t know what to make of this Falcons offense.
• They get the smash matchup of the week against the Dolphins run defense, and they hit 2nd percentile rushing efficiency.
• I know, they were down both their starting QB and best WR.
• But even taking a broader view, it’s stunning that a team with Robinson is 20th in rushing efficiency.
• Without Drake London, Kyle Pitts dominated the targets with nine, while KhaDarel Hodge saw eigh,t and no one else exceeded four.
• We saw more Tyler Allgeier last week than usual, but Robinson played 77% of the snaps in the first three quarters before sitting with the Falcons down multiple scores.
• You’re starting London and Robinson, with Pitts also viable given the targets last week.
• But it’s a tough matchup against a top-five Patriots defense.

Patriots (25.0 Implied Points)

• Drake Maye delivered another very efficient day, hitting 0.31 EPA per play with an impressive 18.7% CPOE on a high 11.5-yard average target depth.
• Maye’s been above 50th-percentile EPA per dropback in every game since Week 1.
• And his EPA number last week includes six sacks, with five of them by Myles Garrett alone.
• One of the big things keeping Maye out of the target quadrant in the air yards graph is volume, as the Patriots are 20th in plays per game and bottom-six in neutral pace.
• But Maye is 17 for 26 on 20+ air-yard throws this season, with Kayshon Boutte catching eight of them.
• Rhamondre Stevenson remains the RB you want in New England for now, at least, as he led TreVeyon Henderson in snaps 50 to 14.
• But Henderson was very efficient on his 10 carries, earning 75 rushing yards and, hopefully, more work going forward.
• Stefon Diggs is in the only Patriot I really want to play, but Boutte keeps dunking me, delivering splash plays on limited targets.

Panthers at Packers (O/U 44.5, GB -12.5)

Panthers (16.0 Implied Points)

• The Panthers went massively run-heavy with a -16.9% PROE last week despite being down by a million.
• They weren’t really trying to win the game, which I can’t blame them for, given they had Andy Dalton versus the Bills.
• They ended the day with a brutal 36.4% success rate and only the third percentile passing efficiency.
• Tetairoa McMillan earned 10 targets at least, but we’re really hoping Bryce Young is back next week, which is saying something.
• Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle rotated drives again, with Hubbard seeing more work because he just happened to be on the field for longer drives.
• Only two of Dowdle’s drives went for more than three plays.
• Dowdle has clearly been the superior back since Hubbard has returned from injury, with the coaching staff indicating that they might finally be willing to skew the work in his direction.
• But McMillan is the only Panther you can start with any degree of confidence, especially with 16 implied points against a fantastic Packers defense.

Packers (28.5 Implied Points)

• Last week was fantastic for Jordan Love, hitting 0.59 EPA per play with 13.5% CPOE but on a low 5.2-yard aDoT.
• After starting the season leading the league in air yards, Love’s target depth has come way down.
• Last week, 245 of his 360 passing yards were through yards after the catch, with no turnovers or sacks helping to boost his EPA number as well.
• This WR room is going to be a bit of a mess as guys return from injury, especially when Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks are back.
• Tucker Kraft led the team with eight targets and is a clear start every week at TE.
• After Kraft, Romeo Doubs earned six targets, Christian Watson four in his first week back, and no one else exceeded three.
• Josh Jacobs took 72% of the snaps in the first three quarters, but the Packers turned to Emanuel Wilson in the 4th quarter.
• I’m still firing up Jacobs every week, with the hope that he continues to recover from the calf injury that likely hurt his efficiency last week.
• Jacobs, Kraft, and Doubs are all clear options with nearly 29 implied points, but it’s tricky at the rest of the WR spots given the Packers’ depth.

49ers at Giants (O/U 48.5, SF -2.5)

49ers (25.5 Implied Points)

• Last week was a strange game for the 49ers, as they lost the time of possession battle to the Texans 41:22 to 18:38.
• That was the 2nd-largest margin in the NFL this season.
• They only had the ball for just over five minutes in the 1st half, ultimately running only 44 plays to the Texans’ 75.
• I’m giving all of this context because I don’t know how useful last week was moving forward, especially with my assumption that Brock Purdy is back this week.
• I think we see a lot more than eight rushing attempts for Christian McCaffrey, as an example, especially against the worst run defense in the league.
• CMC and George Kittle are must-starts going forward, with Jauan Jennings also an option depending on Ricky Pearsall’s injury status.

Giants (23.0 Implied Points)

• The Giants continue to look better in efficiency than success rate, hitting about a 57th-percentile pass and rush efficiency but only a 37.2% success rate.
• They only had 21 total targets last week, with Darius Slayton earning five, Wan’Dale Robinson and Theo Johnson each seeing four, and no one else exceeding two.
• Daniel Bellinger was injured leading into and during the game, so the Giants played more 11 personnel than usual, especially since they were playing from behind.
• The big loss from last week was Cam Skattebo, though, with Tyrone Tracy dominating the RB work over Devin Singletary once Skattebo left.
• As the 23 implied points suggest, this 49ers defense is extremely injured, making Tracy a clear start and Robinson and Johnson options depending on your league.

Broncos at Texans (O/U 39.5, HOU -1.5)

Broncos (19.0 Implied Points)

• What a difference a week makes, with the Broncos dropping 44 points on the Cowboys and now expected to only score 19 against the Texans.
• Their offense was fantastic last week, hitting a 58% success rate and over 90th-percentile efficiency both passing and rushing.
• They had 20+ yard explosive TDs to RJ Harvey, Pat Bryant, and Troy Franklin.
• Franklin, in particular, finally turned his air yards into actual yards, and crucially, he ran 26 of the team’s 30 routes.
• Courtland Sutton ran 28 routes, and no one else was above 17.
• That means Franklin can generally be trusted more going forward, but ideally not this week, given the Texans have the most-efficient pass defense in the league.
• The RB split remains annoying, as even with a three-TD day, you can’t trust Harvey because he only had eight touches.
• JK Dobbins led the way with 15 carries and ran five more routes, with Tyler Badie still getting 11 snaps for reasons only Sean Payton in his infinite wisdom can understand.
• I’m not excited to start anyone on the Broncos this week, with Sutton the safest option.

Texans (20.5 Implied Points)

• It was a great game from CJ Stroud last week, with the Texans hitting 93rd-percentile passing efficiency, boosting their season-long number up to 18th in the league.
• Stroud’s 0.50 EPA per play was even more impressive given he was without Nico Collins.
• The Texans had six dropbacks last week with a 6th offensive lineman on the field, according to SIS, with 119 of Stroud’s passing yards coming on those six attempts.
• Stroud only had six of these attempts total from Weeks 1 to 7, with the Texans trying to do something to keep Stroud upright, given their shaky o-line.
• In Collins’ absence, Jayden Higgins led the team with seven targets, Xavier Hutchinson and Jaylin Noel saw six, Braxton Berrios five, and no one else exceeded four.
• The targets for Noel and Berrios were impressive, given that they were rotating with each other.
• Both exceeded 30% targets per route run on limited routes.
• The RB work remains a mess, as Nick Chubb led Woody Marks in carries 17 to 11, but Marks ran eight more routes.
• You’re starting Collins, assuming he returns this week from a concussion, and ideally, I’m sitting everyone else until the Texans decide to give Noel and Marks full-time roles.

Bears at Bengals (O/U 52.5, CHI -2.5)

Bears (27.5 Implied Points)

• Another pretty average game for Caleb Williams, with his 0.06 EPA per play driven down by a big interception in the 4th quarter.
• Rome Odunze led the way with 10 targets, with Olamide Zaccheaus, DJ Moore, and Colston Loveland each seeing 5+ targets, and no one else exceeding three.
• D’Andre Swift took 11 of the 18 RB carries but ran one fewer route than Kyle Monangai.
• It’s a fantastic matchup for everyone on the Bears offense, though, as the Bengals have the 2nd-worst pass defense and the 2nd-worst run defense in the league.
• Odunze and Swift are clear starts, with Loveland an option depending on Cole Kmet’s injury status.

Bengals (25.0 Implied Points)

• Joe Flacco only has eyes for Ja’Marr Chase, with Chase seeing an insane 19 targets and no other Bengal earning more than three.
• Chase Brown woke up last week with the Bengals hitting 100th percentile rushing efficiency.
• It was easily Brown’s best fantasy game of the season, nearly doubling his previous season-high.
• But even with that fantastic news, he lost more work to Samaje Perine, with Perine taking 29.3% of the early-down snaps, easily the highest of the season.
• Let’s hope that was just due to the high play volume, and fire up both Chases this week.

Saints at Rams (O/U 44.5, LAR -14.0)

Saints (15.25 Implied Points)

• 15.25 implied points is *low*.
• And that’s because Tyler Shough is officially making his first start this week against the 2nd-most efficient pass defense in the league.
• I personally disagree with the decision, as I thought Spencer Rattler was mostly playing below-average, which sounds bad but is still higher than my expectation for Shough.
• Ratter is also younger than Shough (lol), but I guess you need to at least see the guy you spent the 40th overall pick on, which again, was not a great choice.
• I get it if you need to start Chris Olave or Rashid Shaheed in fantasy.
• The pass attempts should at least be there, given the Saints will be playing from behind and play with pace.

Rams (29.25 Implied Points)

• Matthew Stafford leads the league in air yards per game.
• And given that this passing attack flows almost exclusively through two players, that explains why Puka Nacua and Davante Adams are both top-five in WR expected fantasy points.
• Kyren Williams remains the clear lead back, even if I’d rather that not be the case.
• Fire up Nacua, Adams, and Williams like usual.

Jaguars at Raiders (O/U 45.5, JAX -3.0)

Jaguars (24.25 Implied Points)

• The Jaguars only being favored by three points versus this Raiders team is not ideal.
• Trevor Lawrence is in the prayer yards section of the air yards graph, as he’s 2nd in the league in air yards per game, but they rarely turn into actual yards.
• Week 7 was incredibly bullish for Travis Hunter, though, as he earned 14 targets, nearly double his previous career-high.
• Expected-point-darling Brian Thomas Jr and Travis Etienne are also clear starts this week.
• If Lawrence’s CPOE ever increased from dead-last to even average, the ceilings for both BTJ and Hunter would be massive.

Raiders (21.25 Implied Points)

• The sportsbooks have more faith in the Raiders than I do, given they’re only three-point underdogs this week.
• Their game against the Chiefs in Week 7 was one of the most embarrassing performances I’ve ever seen.
• The Raiders are now bottom-five in most major passing and rushing efficiency metrics, with explosive plays buoying them a bit.
• My assumption is that Brock Bowers plays this week, which would be massive for this entire offense.
• You’re playing Bowers and Ashton Jeanty, and likely no one else on the team.

Chiefs at Bills (O/U 52.5, KC -2.5)

Chiefs (27.5 Implied Points)

• Rashee Rice finished the day with one TD but feasibly could have had three, as he was tackled on the 1-yard line twice.
• Rice led the team with nine targets, as Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce each earned seven, and no other player saw more than four.
• All three are clear starts as the Chiefs are 1st in PROE and 3rd in passing efficiency.
• Isiah Pacheco took half of the RB carries and dominated the routes, but he hurt his knee at the end of the game and is considered week-to-week.
• With that designation, my assumption is he misses the game against the Bills.
• I’ll be looking for any news that indicates the Chiefs are willing to expand Brashard Smith’s role, because they haven’t been willing to do that yet this season.
• Barring that, my assumption is we see a lot of Kareem Hunt, whose goal-line role makes him an option on top of the Bills’ 28th-ranked run defense.

Bills (25.0 Implied Points)

• I thought the Bills were going to pass more than usual last week in an effort to put their bad loss to the Falcons behind them.
• Well, they won by 31 points and hardly needed to pass at all.
• The Panthers’ run defense was a big surprise this season before James Cook ran all over them.
• Josh Allen ended the day with only 12 completions.
• And Dalton Kincaid usually plays more in close games, but he played only 14 total snaps last week in a blowout victory after being limited in practice all week.
• In a rare game in which the Bills are expected to lose, we should get a lot more pass attempts, making both Khalil Shakir and Kincaid clear starts.
• And Cook is in a fantastic spot against a susceptible Chiefs run defense.

Seahawks at Commanders (O/U 45.5, SEA -3.5)

Seahawks (24.5 Implied Points)

• For a team clearly in the target quadrant of the air yards graph, it’s telling that you can only safely start Jaxon Smith-Njigba in fantasy.
• JSN has about 50% of his team’s air yards, with Cooper Kupp and Tory Horton the only other real contributors on the team.
• The RB split remains extremely frustrating, as Kenneth Walker has been both more explosive and more consistent than Zach Charbonnet.
• Walker was subbed off the field in goal-line situations on his birthday before their bye.
• C’mon, on his birthday?
• So, JSN is one of the clearest starts in all of fantasy football, but it’s tough to trust anyone else.

Commanders (21.0 Implied Points)

• My assumption is that Jayden Daniels returns this week, meaning we don’t have to care about last week’s game that much.
• The most important news was that both Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin returned from their injuries, earning six and four targets, respectively.
• Unfortunately, McLaurin may have re-injured his quad.
• He was held out for some of the 4th quarter, but the Commanders were down by multiple scores at that point.
• Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt dominated the RB carries with nine but split the routes with Jeremy McNichols.
• That is likely going to be the RB split going forward, with Bill’s ceiling hurt by the lack of a pass-catching role.
• And the Seahawks have the most-efficient run defense in the league, with opponents opting to pass on the Seahawks at the 2nd-highest rate versus expectation.
• Bill is really only an option if Daniels plays because he’ll need a TD to avoid being a liability on your starting roster.

Cardinals at Cowboys (O/U 54.5, DAL -2.5)

Cardinals (26.0 Implied Points)

• I know Kyler Murray is back, but I’d like to petition for Jacoby Brissett to remain the starter because he actually targets Trey McBride in the red zone.
• Three of McBride’s four TDs this season have come in the two games with Brissett.
• Those two games were also the highest target totals for McBride on the season.
• McBride is a clear start despite Murray returning, as he’s easily the TE1 in expected fantasy points this season, and everyone lights up this Cowboys’ defense.
• It’s a stoppable force meets a movable object moment this week in the Cardinals’ run game versus the Cowboys’ run defense.
• And the Cardinals surprisingly cut Michael Carter a week before Trey Benson is eligible to return from IR.
• So, Bam Knight seems like a great start unless something massive changes between now and the game.

Cowboys (28.5 Implied Points)

• The Cowboys scored on three of their first five drives but were down 17 points when Dak Prescott took the field late in the 2nd quarter.
• This is why the entire intro last week was targeting the Cowboys and their opponents in fantasy.
• The biggest surprise from last week was Jake Ferguson only earning one target on 30 routes.
• That feels pretty fluky to me, as he earned at least six targets in six of his first seven games, and even earned volume in the games where CeeDee Lamb played.
• Speaking of Lamb, he led the team in targets with 10, while George Pickens earned nine, and no one else saw more than three.
• Javonte Williams only carried the ball five more times than Jaydon Blue last week, but he dominated the routes 28 to three.
• You’re safely firing up the big four Cowboys skill players in Lamb, Pickens, Williams, and Ferguson.