Fantasy Football Week 4 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Every Game Previewed | Hoopes There It Is

Sep 30, 2026

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Welcome to another edition of Hoopes There It Is! We’re previewing every game in Week 4, highlighting advanced stats like EPA, success rate, pass rate over expected (PROE), and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) to help make the best decisions for your fantasy teams. I’ll provide a quick start/sit section at the top that stems from the longer write-ups. And if you’re interested in more, which I hope you are, you can jump to any of the 16 games in the week. Let’s get started!

Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em

Jaylen Warren (Start): Rico Dowdle was listed as a non-participant in practice on Tuesday, which puts his ability to play on Thursday night in major question. And if Dowdle sits, Jaylen Warren is a fantastic start. Warren had bellcow volume in Week 3, taking 17 of the 19 RB carries for 127 rushing yards. On top of that, he ran 20 of the team’s 37 routes, which was second only to DK Metcalf. And now Warren gets a Browns’ defense that is last in the league in explosive run rate allowed, giving up an explosive attempt on 16% of carries. You want Warren in this matchup with the Steelers, 2.5-point road favorites.

Jadarian Price (Sit): Now, it’s a safe bet that Jadarian Price’s volume increases relative to last week. Price only played 10 of the Seahawks’ 52 snaps over the first three quarters last week, according to PFF. That seemed to be punishment for a fumble early in the 1st quarter, with these silly punishments typically not extending to the following game. But I’d still expect both Emanuel Wilson and George Holani to be involved, and Price has been a non-factor in the receiving game. Meanwhile, the Chargers’ run defense has been pretty good, ranking 11th in both efficiency and explosive run rate allowed. I’d start other viable alternatives instead of Price in Week 4.

Josh Downs (Start): Josh Downs is always a must-start in my heart. Both Downs and Tyler Warren earned 9+ targets last week; the difference is Warren’s 1.9-yard aDoT is 2nd-lowest among all WRs and TEs with at least 10 targets. Downs’ average target is about nine additional yards downfield, which is a lot more valuable for us in fantasy. Unfortunately, Downs is underperforming his expected half PPR points by about three points per game, largely because he hasn’t caught any of his six 20+ air yard targets yet this season. We’ll need Daniel Jones’ accuracy to improve on those attempts, as Downs has a low 41.6% catchable air yards rate. But this could be the week against a Commanders’ pass defense that is bottom-four in passing efficiency, success rate, and CPOE allowed.

All Buccaneers, Titans, and Dolphins (Sit): The Buccaneers are starting an undrafted rookie at QB this week due to Baker Mayfield’s dislocated thumb. The Titans are 30th in the league in PROE, dead-last in plays per game, and are expected to score only 16 points against the Ravens on the road. It’s even worse for the Dolphins, as I had to triple-check that their 13.5 implied points were accurate. I know you just spent a lot of FAAB on Ollie Gordon, but I’d keep your shiny new toy in the garage this week. Look for higher ceilings than players on these teams.

Michael Wilson (Start): Context is always necessary, as the Cardinals had a massive 47 targets last week. But this is not the first time Michael Wilson has put up a gaudy target total, once again earning 16 targets in Week 3. That’s nearly double Marvin Harrison Jr.’s target number for the entire season. This Giants’ pass defense has limited explosive plays but has generally been bad in every other key metric. I’d chase the volume in Week 4.

Saints RBs (Sit): Travis Etienne’s injury length is still uncertain, though it looks like he’ll at least miss Week 4. Assuming that’s the case, Alvin Kamara is set to be the lead back. But Kendre Miller and CJ Donaldson are absolutely going to be involved as well. Meanwhile, the Falcons are top five in every key rushing defensive metric, and opponents have opted to pass on them at the highest rate versus expectation in the league. And you don’t need to force Kellen Moore’s hand to pump passing volume into this offense. Historically, that would be good for Kamara, but the 31-year-old has averaged only two yards per reception to start the year.

Steelers at Browns (O/U 38.5, PIT -2.5)

Steelers (20.5 Implied Points)

20.5 is a brutally low implied point number for a team expected to win the game.
And that’s for a Steelers team that is somehow leading the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE) to start the year.
They were +6.2% in PROE last week and were efficient on their attempts, hitting 71st percentile efficiency relative to all games since 2021.
Roman Wilson paced the team with seven targets, including a bomb TD, but finished the day with only 19 routes because he was punished for a drop that led to an interception.
Jaylen Warren remains the only Steeler that I really want to play, particularly if Rico Dowdle doesn’t suit up again this week with a toe issue.
Warren took 17 of the 19 RB carries last week and ran a fantastic 29 of the team’s 37 routes; that route share was 2nd on the team behind only DK Metcalf.
And now Warren gets a Browns’ defense that is last in the league in explosive run rate allowed, giving up an explosive attempt on 16% of carries.

Browns (18.0 Implied Points)

The betting markets are clearly still very skeptical of this Browns’ passing attack.
They’re now 12th in PROE this season and hit 65th percentile passing efficiency last week.
Harold Fannin led the team with nine targets last week, followed by seven for KC Concepcion, and five for Raheim Sanders.
Concepcion is a clear buy-low at this point because he played over Jerry Jeudy in 12 personnel sets at a rate of five-to-one last week, leading to 10 more routes on the day.
And according to JJ Zachariason, Concepcion had the 5th-worst result in PPR points last week (since the start of last season) from a WR with a 25%+ target share.
On the ground, Quinshon Judkins essentially split snaps with Sanders, and that’s how Sanders was able to earn five targets because he ran three more routes than Judkins.
But Judkins took 18 carries to Sanders’ one.
It’s not a bad matchup for Judkins on the ground this week, but the lack of TD opportunities and high-end receiving upside mean it’s completely reasonable to go with a higher-upside option.

Colts at Commanders (O/U 47.5, IND -3.5)

Colts (25.5 Implied Points)

It’s a strength-on-strength, weakness-on-weakness matchup across the board here.
The Colts’ passing attack and Commanders’ pass defense are both bottom-five in the league, but if you look at the ground games, they’re each in the top three.
Last week wasn’t much different for the Colts as they only hit 25th percentile passing efficiency.
Fortunately for fantasy, the targets consolidated to only three players, with Josh Downs, Tyler Warren, and Keenan Allen each seeing 9+ and no one else seeing more than three.
The targets are obviously great for Warren, but their value is concerning given his 1.9-yard aDoT is 2nd-lowest among all WRs and TEs with at least 10 targets.
Downs is my preferred play in the offense going forward, but particularly this week against a bad Commanders’ pass defense that is bottom-four in passing efficiency, success rate, and CPOE allowed.
Downs is underperforming his expected half PPR points by about three points per game, largely because he hasn’t caught one of his six 20+ air yard targets yet this season.
Jonathan Taylor is an obvious must-start despite the matchup; he continued to dominate the work last week, taking 22 of the 26 RB carries and crucially running 32 of the team’s 41 routes.

Commanders (22.0 Implied Points)

The big question for the Commanders is whether Jayden Daniels will play this week.
My assumption was that he’d miss a couple more weeks, but he is expected to travel and practice in London leading up to this game; I still think Daniels sits this week.
The Commanders played the Seahawks last week and unsurprisingly struggled to run the ball, hitting only 17th percentile rushing efficiency and a brutal 20.7% rushing success rate.
The passing attack was efficient, particularly for Terry McLaurin, who paced the team with nine targets and beat his combined Week 1 and 2 results in receptions, yards, and touchdowns.
Stefon Diggs had easily his worst box score game of the season, but the seven targets were still encouraging.
On the ground, the Commanders split the snaps between Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Rachaad White, though JCM took 19 carries to White’s eight.
The routes were back up for JCM, meaning he’s the clear RB you want, but hopefully we don’t get Charlie Brown’d and his routes disappear again.

Patriots at Bills (O/U 48.5, BUF -7.0)

Patriots (20.75 Implied Points)

There is a guy in my home league (shoutout Mike) who drafted Drake Maye and keeps yelling “I was told Drake Maye was good!” anytime Maye struggles.
To be fair, it’s mostly been a struggle this season, with Maye hitting only 10th percentile passing efficiency last week; he’s yet to beat the “schedule merchant” allegations.
It’s hard to suggest a pass catcher you feel great about starting as only Mack Hollins had more than five targets last week.
On the ground, Rhamondre Stevenson returned as the lead back, taking ten more snaps, seven more routes, and two more targets compared to TreVeyon Henderson.
Corey Kiner also saw six carries, but the Patriots pulled their starters for the final 10 snaps of the game, which is when Kiner played.
In terms of role, Stevenson and Henderson split the early down snaps, but Stevenson took the passing downs, short-yardage, and goal-line situations, according to PFF.
Stevenson remains the preferred RB here, but we’ll need the Patriots’ offense to actually be in scoring position.

Bills (27.75 Implied Points)

The Bills strongly reversed course last week, going down to -11.6% PROE as they struggled to only 22nd-percentile passing efficiency.
Only DJ Moore saw more than four targets, and he was the only Bills’ pass catcher with a reasonable fantasy day.
I do think Dalton Kincaid is still a start despite the poor day, as he ran 21 of the team’s 31 routes, only two off Moore for the team lead.
James Cook took all 24 of the RB carries, but his route rate plummeted from about 50% in Weeks 1 and 2 to 29% with the return of Ty Johnson.

Titans at Ravens (O/U 43.5, BAL -11.5)

Titans (16.0 Implied Points)

Woof on the 16 implied points.
The Titans are now 30th in the league in PROE and dead last in plays per game.
That’s going to make it tough for anyone to be fantasy-relevant, particularly with how inefficient they’ve been passing.
The target numbers were great from Wan’Dale Robinson (11) and Carnell Tate (nine) last week, and Robinson got home in fantasy for a 7/57/1 line, while Tate’s 6/58/0 line was easily the best of his career.
But that was against the Giants’ 32nd-ranked pass defense, with things tougher this week against the Ravens on the road.
The Titans changed how they deployed their RBs last week, as Tony Pollard took nearly all the early-down snaps, while Tyjae Spears took the third-down work.
If that continues, then Pollard is the clear back you want here, though it’s fair to question the ceiling as Pollard has zero TDs on the season.

Ravens (27.5 Implied Points)

The Ravens went massively run-heavy last week, hitting -14.2% PROE.
But they were extremely efficient passing the ball when they remembered the forward pass was an option.
They only had 20 targets as a team, with Zay Flowers earning six of them and Mark Andrews five.
But once again, Flowers was only a part-time player as he ran only 14 routes on the day.
Flowers is going to crush it in fantasy whenever he actually plays a full game.
And then Derrick Henry’s role was the same as usual, taking 26 of the 31 RB carries but running only 10 of the team’s 22 routes.

Jaguars at Bengals (O/U 51.5, CIN -2.5)

Jaguars (24.5 Implied Points)

This is one of only two games this week with a projected game total over 50 points.
Last week was a weird one for the Jaguars’ passing attack.
Jakobi Meyers was seemingly unable to earn any targets through two weeks before pacing the team with eight in Week 3.
And then Parker Washington had his worst target game of the season but saved his output with a TD.
I wouldn’t be scared off Washington, though, as his role actually improved last week; his snap rate increased in 12 personnel to 87.5%, according to PFF.
That came at the expense of Brian Thomas Jr., who didn’t take a single snap in 12 personnel and saw his 11 personnel rate drop.
It’s not the best matchup, as the Bengals’ pass defense has surprised so far, but opponents have opted to pass on them a lot, particularly deep down the field.
On the ground, Bhayshul Tuten continues to separate from Chris Rodriguez, which was the thesis going into the season.
Tuten outsnapped CRod 30 to 13, ran seven more routes, and took seven more carries.
He’s clearly the only RB you want here, but LeQuint Allen and Ameer Abdullah combined for 18 annoying snaps as well.

Bengals (27.0 Implied Points)

The Bengals hit 84th percentile passing efficiency last week, with Ja’Marr Chase (12) and Tee Higgins (seven) dominating the targets.
But Dohnte Meyers also earned five targets, though he’s not someone I’m particularly interested in starting going forward.
The Jaguars’ pass defense is 3rd in efficiency, though the underlying stats are much worse, likely driven by the team’s league-leading number of interceptions.
Those can be fluky moving forward, so I’d treat this as a plus matchup for the Bengals’ passing offense.
On the ground, Chase Brown is the man who launched a thousand buy-low articles.
He dominated the carries and still ran 25 routes, but he hasn’t scored a TD since Week 1.
Brown is 3rd in RB rush share and 7th in route share, but he’s underperformed his expected fantasy points by 2.7 per game, the 7th-highest gap among qualifying RBs.
If you have him, there’s not much to do other than stick with him.

Cowboys at Texans (O/U 47.5, HOU -2.5)

Cowboys (22.5 Implied Points)

The 22.5 implied points are low for the Cowboys, and a testament to the Texans’ 2nd-ranked pass defense and sack rate.
But there’s not much else to do here besides continuing to start George Pickens, CeeDee Lamb, and Javonte Williams.
Pickens and Lamb each saw 8+ targets last week, and Williams dominated the RB work once again.
But we must lower our expectations a bit in this specific matchup.

Texans (25.0 Implied Points)

Nico Collins is set up in a great spot if he can play this week.
The Cowboys’ pass defense is bottom three in efficiency, success rate, and CPOE allowed, and is also 30th in sack rate.
Collins is the only Texans’ pass catcher I’m particularly interested in starting.
And at RB, the Texans were once again below 25th percentile efficiency on the ground.
The Texans used the same RB strategy last week, according to PFF, where David Montgomery took the first two drives and then rotated by possession with Woody Marks from there.
Given the 25 implied points and the Cowboys’ poor run defense to start the year, Montgomery is an option-dependent start, but we’ll need a TD.

Cardinals at Giants (O/U 44.5, ARI -1.5)

Cardinals (23.0 Implied Points)

Shoutout to the Cardinals for having more implied points than the Cowboys this week.
The Cardinals put up a fight last week against the 49ers, hitting 72nd percentile passing and 62nd percentile rushing efficiency.
The team had a massive 47 targets, with Michael Wilson’s 16 targets in Week 3 nearly double Marvin Harrison Jr.’s targets for the entire season.
I think you chase that volume in a matchup against a bad Giants’ pass defense and fire up Wilson and obviously Trey McBride.
And Jeremiyah Love might now be startable as well.
Love played over 80% of the early-down snaps last week, according to PFF, which is excellent.
The downside is that Tyler Allgeier maintained the goal-line role, and he’s at six of the nine goal-line snaps this season.
But 25 routes and 21 carries for Love is absolutely worthy of your starting lineup, especially with his talent.

Giants (21.5 Implied Points)

The Giants went with a nasty -19.4% PROE approach last week, leading to only 21 team targets versus 32 carries.
And even when they did pass, Jameis Winston was only throwing check-downs, with his 5.7 air yards per attempt being the lowest in the league last week by half a yard.
That hurt Nabers as his 0.9-yard aDoT was 4th lowest last week among WRs with at least 20 routes.
That usage is not compatible with a startable fantasy WR, so we’ll have to hope that was a Titans-specific game plan and not something the Giants can do against functional opponents.
And we’re also hoping that the Giants hold off on starting newly acquired JJ McCarthy as long as possible.
Cam Skattebo dominated the RB work last week, out-snapping Najee Harris 49 to 14, running nearly all the team routes, and taking 20 carries.
The big change was that Skattebo played 100% of the late-down and two-minute-drill snaps last week; those rates were 0% and 31.6%, respectively, in Weeks 1-2, according to PFF.
Similarly, Isaiah Likely’s role improved in Week 3, with his 91% route rate on the season among the top-five TEs, according to PFF.
All three of Nabers, Likely, and Skattebo are startable in a plus-matchup with the Cardinals’ defense, but not if the Giants approach this game the same way they did against the Titans.

Packers at Buccaneers (O/U 39.5, GB -3.5)

Packers (21.5 Implied Points)

The Packers are up to 7th in PROE after their +11.6% performance last week, seemingly admitting that they cannot run the ball.
They finished last week with 48 team targets to only nine carries, hitting only 12th percentile rushing efficiency on that very small sample.
I’d expect more of the same this week as the Buccaneers’ run defense is top-10 in every key metric and opponents have opted to pass on them at the 5th-highest rate versus expectation.
That’s all great news for Matthew Golden, Christian Watson, and Tucker Kraft, who each earned 8+ targets last week.
The biggest problem is Jordan Love is running for his life behind an offensive line that allowed 15 quick pressures in Week 3, the 2nd most in any game this year.
Which team had the most quick pressures in a game, you ask? Well, it was this same Packers team against the Vikings.
All of Golden, Watson, and Kraft are starts, with the hope that Love can remain upright for long enough to get them the ball.
And you still can’t start any of the RBs; Chris Brooks, Kaleb Johnson, and MarShawn Lloyd split the snaps and routes, and there were only eight RB carries to go around.

Buccaneers (18.0 Implied Points)

Last week was rough for the Buccaneers, hitting exactly 12th percentile passing and rushing efficiency.
But their performance this week will be determined by rookie Jalon Daniels, who is taking over for Baker Mayfield due to a dislocated thumb.
If I were going to start any Buccaneers, they would be Emeka Egbuka, who paced the team with nine targets last week, and Bucky Irving.
Irving split the snaps with Kenny Gainwell last week but dominated the carries 15 to three.
But at 18 implied points, your confidence in Egbuka and Irving must be tied to how well you expect Daniels to play, and for me at least, I’d prefer to sit them.

Jets at Bears (O/U 42.5, CHI -3.5)

Jets (19.5 Implied Points)

The Jets’ passing offense has been really good to start the year, as they’re top-10 in passing efficiency, success rate, and explosive pass rate, while they’re literally number one in CPOE.
Garrett Wilson had 13 targets last week and is a must-start going forward.
I’d also be willing to start both Adonai Mitchell (if he returns from the finger injury) and Kenyon Sadiq, with the latter dependent on Mason Taylor remaining out.
Sadiq’s role really improved last week without Taylor, as his route share increased to a (still lower than you’d want) 58% and his aDoT jumped eight yards.
It’s a tough matchup on paper against a Bears’ pass defense that just shut down the Eagles, but they do allow a high rate of explosives and maybe the Eagles themselves down.
Breece Hall and Braelon Allen split the snaps last week, but that was only because Hall left the game with a thigh injury that is likely to keep him out in Week 4.
I’d expect Isaiah Davis to be involved, but I’d be willing to start Allen depending on your other options.
The implied points are bad for the Jets, but this Bears’ run defense has been below average to start the year, and I’d expect Allen to get most of the RB work.

Bears (23.0 Implied Points)

Case Keenum had a day against the Eagles, with the Bears hitting 74th percentile passing efficiency while opting to pass at a rate 6.5% above expectation.
One thing that benefited all the skill players was the team’s 72 snaps, with the Bears dominating the time of possession 37 to 23 minutes.
Luther Burden’s 11 targets were good for 33% of the team’s total, followed by six each for Rome Odunze and Kalif Raymond, and only four for Colston Loveland.
The Jets’ pass defense has limited air yards from opposing offenses but has been average overall, which might benefit Burden the most.
D’Andre Swift continues to be the RB you want in Chicago, leading Kyle Monangai in snaps 50 to 22, routes 20 to nine, targets three to zero, and carries 20 to 10.

Rams at Eagles (O/U 43.5, LAR -3.0)

Rams (23.25 Implied Points)

Even without Puka Nacua, the Rams hit +5.9% PROE last week, leading to 48 team targets versus 21 carries.
That unsurprisingly benefited Davante Adams, whose 13 targets and 137 yards keep him in must-start territory if Nacua is out.
But no one expected Tyler Higbee to earn 11 targets in Week 3 after two total in his first two games.
Colby Parkinson went into the game questionable, while Terrance Ferguson injured his ankle during the game, making Higbee the primary tight end in 11 personnel.
Higbee is absolutely startable if Nacua is out and Parkinson and Ferguson are out or limited, as he ran 47 routes in Week 3 compared to 11 for Parkinson, 10 for Davis Allen, and nine for Ferguson.
Kyren Williams had a nice fantasy game as well, despite not scoring a TD.
Williams dominated Blake Corum in snaps 61 to 25, routes 28 to 15, and carries 15 to six.
Williams also earned seven targets, far more than his typical game and his most since Week 5 of last season.
Williams and Corum still rotated drives, but Corum’s drives were a bit longer, so Williams rotated in on those drives, according to PFF.

Eagles (20.25 Implied Points)

Last week was rough as an Eagles fan, as they got dog-walked by Case Keenum on Monday Night Football.
The Eagles hit only the 2nd percentile in passing efficiency and a brutal 33.3% passing success rate.
The team only had 50 offensive snaps as the Bears had the ball for 14 more minutes.
DeVonta Smith earned eight of the 24 team targets and is the only Eagles’ pass catcher I’m excited to start.
However, it was encouraging to see Dontayvion Wicks’ playing time bump back up in Week 3, after losing a lot of snaps to Darius Cooper in Week 2.
Saquon Barkley dominated the RB work despite the stinger that caused him to leave the game in Week 2, taking every RB carry and running 15 of the team’s 31 routes.
I’d fire up Jalen Hurts, Barkley, and Smith despite the Rams’ pass defense that is 1st in the league in CPOE allowed.

Dolphins at Vikings

Dolphins (13.5 Implied Points)

I checked this one a few times but it’s right; the Dolphins are implied for 13.5 points this week, the lowest number I can remember.
With De’Von Achane out for the season, going against a Vikings’ defense that is top-two in passing efficiency, passing success rate, CPOE, rushing efficiency, and rushing success rate allowed, I’d sit every Dolphin.
I like Malik Washington as an add or buy very low candidate, as he earned 10 targets last week and he’s seeing air yards in the offense.
The problem is his catchable air yards rate is 2nd worst in the league among qualifying WRs, but the hope is that can improve given Caleb Douglas has a catchable air yards rate of about 67% with a similar aDoT.
And I know you just dumped a bunch of FAAB dollars on Ollie Gordon and/or Jaylen Wright, but I’d sit both this week to avoid this Vikings’ defense and see what the split looks like between the two backs, assuming Wright plays.
As a reminder, Gordon only took every RB snap after Achane left in Week 3 because he was the only remaining active RB on the roster.

Vikings (25.0 Implied Points)

Despite winning the game in Week 3, it was a day to forget for the Vikings’ passing attack, hitting only 10th percentile passing efficiency and losing Justin Jefferson to an ankle injury after just two routes.
In Jefferson’s absence, Jordan Addison dominated the targets with nine, followed by six for Aaron Jones.
If Jefferson sits, Addison is a must-start and remains an option-dependent start if Jefferson goes.
The Dolphins’ pass defense is abysmal, ranking bottom-two in passing efficiency, success rate, and CPOE allowed, and has yet to get a sack this season.
And Aaron Jones remains a start despite not scoring a TD since Jordan Mason went down.
Jones has dominated the RB work, taking 17 of the 21 RB carries and running 22 of the team’s 34 routes.
It’s a get-right game for everyone on the Vikings’ offense.

Chiefs at Raiders (O/U 47.5, KC -4.5)

Chiefs (26.0 Implied Points)

The Chiefs’ passing attack is largely up to its old tricks, ranking top eight in most stats despite being 31st in air yards per attempt.
They were extremely efficient in Week 3, but it was Rashee Rice who dominated the volume, earning nine targets on only 22 routes as no other Chief exceeded three targets.
That target share was the best of Rice’s career.
15 of Rice’s 17 targets have come against zone coverage this season, according to SIS, and the Raiders have played the 7th most pass defense snaps using zone coverage and the 4th fewest using man coverage.
But it’s not a cakewalk matchup as the Raiders are 1st in passing EPA allowed, though I think we can all agree that’s inflated a bit by playing the Dolphins and Chargers (sad trombone).
And then I don’t have to tell you to start Kenneth Walker, who is 2nd only to Jahmyr Gibbs in expected fantasy points per game among all flex players.

Raiders (21.5 Implied Points)

I’ll admit that I thought Colston Loveland would outscore Brock Bowers coming into the season; that looks…pretty pretty dumb at this point.
Bowers soaked up 12 of the team’s 29 targets in his first game back from injury, on a ridiculous 94.7% route participation rate, which was the best for any tight end in a game this season.
The workload remains great for Ashton Jeanty, but the production has ceased after his two-receiving TD performance in Week 1.
I don’t think there’s much you can do other than start him, as the carry and route shares are insanely good, but you’d like to see the Raiders’ key rushing stats be better than bottom-eight in the league.

Chargers at Seahawks (O/U 42.5, SEA -7.0)

Chargers (17.75 Implied Points)

That’s right; the Buccaneers are starting an undrafted rookie QB and still have more implied points than the Chargers this week.
After earning four targets last week, Alec Ingold now has more targets this season than Omarion Hampton.
The Chargers are bottom-six in both passing and rushing efficiency and now get a Seahawks defense that is 3rd in efficiency and 2nd in success rate allowed.
Ladd McConkey is the only Charger I’m confidently starting this week.
Tre’ Harris actually led the team with seven targets in Week 3, and I hope he eventually takes away the work that Quentin Johnston is getting.
At RB, it was a pretty gross three-way split with Hampton taking 29 snaps, Keaton Mitchell 26, and Kimani Vidal 17.
Hampton still dominated the carries with 15, but he only ran six routes compared to about 14 each for Mitchell and Vidal, including a ‘receiving’ TD for Mitchell.
So far, the Chargers are tipping their hand with their run approach when Mitchell is on the field, as 15 of his 17 carries this season have been outside runs, according to SIS; it’s about a 50/50 split for Hampton.
The usage for Oronde Gadsden was ok as he took 25 of the 30 11 personnel snaps, but he didn’t play much in 21 personnel and didn’t catch any of his three targets (womp).

Seahawks (24.75 Implied Points)

The Seahawks were uncharacteristically pass-heavy in a shootout with the Commanders last week, hitting +10.4% PROE.
And that made sense, as they hit 63rd percentile passing efficiency but were unable to run the ball at all.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues to stunt on my expected points model, with his 30 half PPR points per game about 12 more than his expected points.
The WR with the next largest gap is CeeDee Lamb, who is outperforming his expected points by only seven points in comparison.
AJ Barner was actually second on the Seahawks last week with nine targets, but you can’t trust him in starting lineups after combining for only three targets in his first two games.
After it seemed Rashid Shaheed took Cooper Kupp’s role in Week 2, Kupp was back ahead in Week 3, ultimately running 13 more routes than Shaheed.
And you can’t start any RB in this one after Emanuel Wilson, George Holani, and Jadarian Price about evenly split the snaps in Week 3.
Price only played on 10 of 52 snaps over the first three quarters, according to PFF, with eight of his 19 snaps from the final five minutes of the game.
That was likely due to being punished for a fumble early in the 1st quarter, and so while I’d expect his role to increase this week, he’s maxed out at 52 scoreless rushing yards and two receptions this season so far.

Broncos at 49ers (O/U 46.5, SF -3.0)

Broncos (21.75 Implied Points)

The Broncos were about average passing the ball last week but did hit 67th percentile rushing efficiency.
Their 28 targets were dominated by Jaylen Waddle, Courtland Sutton, and RJ Harvey, who each earned seven.
The 49ers’ defensive stats are all over the place; I don’t think I’ve ever seen a team 1st in explosive run rate allowed but dead-last in success rate allowed.
But the most recent thing we saw was the Cardinals hitting the 72nd percentile in passing efficiency against them on the way to scoring 30 points.
Waddle remains my only confident play on the team, and he said he was ‘fine’ after being seen in a walking boot after Week 3.
I wouldn’t chase Harvey’s seven targets since they were on only 16 routes and he only saw two carries.
JK Dobbins, meanwhile, dominated the carries with 17 but only ran nine routes for the entire game; he has one reception this year and has yet to best 49 scoreless yards.
But 49ers’ opponents have opted to pass on them at a rate 9.5% below expectation, meaning we could have some volume for Dobbins in this one.

49ers (24.75 Implied Points)

Brock Purdy has been on an absolute heater to start the year.
After hitting 100th percentile passing efficiency in Week 2, he fell all the way down to 99th percentile in Week 3.
And he’s doing it with guys getting injured all around him; the most recent one was Mike Evans, who ran only 12 routes last week due to a rib strain, though my assumption is he’ll play in Week 4.
Beyond Evans, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey dominated the targets with seven and five, respectively.
And CMC quieted all Kaelon Black talk in Week 3, outsnapping Black 45 to eight in a more neutral game script.
Purdy, CMC, Evans, and Kittle are all starts even against a Broncos pass defense that is top-10 in passing efficiency, success rate, and CPOE allowed.

Lions at Panthers (O/U 50.5, DET -3.5)

Lions (27.0 Implied Points)

The Lions make my job easy as they only rely on four skill players, and to be honest, mostly just two.
Jahmyr Gibbs leads the entire league in expected fantasy points per game and has exceeded that expectation by about six points per game anyway.
Amon-Ra St. Brown similarly has exceeded his expected points by about five points per game; both are no-brainer starts every week.
The more challenging questions are about Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta.
Both JaMo and LaPorta earned four targets last week on about 30 routes (the same number as ARSB).
The Panthers’ pass defense has been mostly ok but they’re likely to be down both of their top cornerbacks in Week 4, with Jaycee Horn potentially out for the season with a torn quad and Mike Jackson dealing with a groin injury of uncertain severity.
You’re probably starting LaPorta because you likely don’t have a better option at TE.
And I get if you’re sitting JaMo at this point; it’s going to be frustrating whenever his explosion game hits on your bench.
With the Panthers down their two best CBs, this feels like a put up or shut up game for JaMo in fantasy.

Panthers (23.5 Implied Points)

This is the second of two games with a projected game total over 50, as the Lions’ offense is humming while their defense is bottom-six in almost every key metric.
That sets up the Panthers’ offense nicely.
Week 3 was easily the worst game of the year for the Panthers’ offense, though, falling below 40th percentile efficiency both passing and rushing.
The team had a massive 41 targets but was only able to funnel four each to Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker.
The low Coker volume is easier to explain as he left in the 3rd quarter with a quad strain and his status for Week 4 is still uncertain.
The low McMillan volume seemed to be a combination of pressure on Bryce Young (which has been constant this year) and a defensive focus by the Browns, especially when Coker was out.
I wouldn’t worry too much about McMillan; he just happens to be 0/4 on targets within the opponent’s 10 yard-line, while we’d really like him to be 4for4.
But those targets near the end zone, paired with air yards throughout the rest of the field, put McMillan’s typical target as 26% more valuable than the average WR’s.
I’d prefer not to chase the eight targets by Darren Waller last week, but I get it if you have limited options.
I’m a bit more interested in Waller if Coker is out, and if the injury to Mitchell Evans costs him playing time, though the latter seems unlikely given Evans was cleared from a possible concussion in Week 3.
McMillan, Coker (if he plays), and Chuba Hubbard are all starts as the Panthers are likely to chase points in this one against a bad defense.

Falcons at Saints (O/U 48.5, NO -3.0)

Falcons (22.75 Implied Points)

The Falcons with Michael Penix at the helm were like a diet version of the Lions, funneling all their fantasy volume to two players.
The Falcons did whatever they wanted against the Packers in Week 3, and what they wanted to do was watch Bijan Robinson and Drake London cook.
Robinson took a whopping 29 carries for 194 yards and two TDs, while London caught all nine of his targets for exactly 194 receiving yards as well.
You’re not starting Kyle Pitts at this point, so fire up both Robinson and London and enjoy them against a generally bad Saints defense.

Saints (25.75 Implied Points)

“The Saints will not run 74 offensive plays every week,” says the man who watches the Saints run 74 offensive plays every week.
Compared to the Titans, the Saints’ offense essentially plays three games for every two games the Titans play.
I called Drake Maye a schedule merchant earlier in the article, and now I’m calling Tyler Shough a volume merchant.
Shough is 3rd in fantasy points per game among QBs this season but 19th in fantasy points per dropback.
But while this offense won’t have 74 plays every week, there will be volume here with Kellen Moore calling a pass-heavy game plan with a fast pace.
And I’d expect the Saints to lean on the pass in Week 4 as the Falcons have a strong run defense and the Saints will be without Travis Etienne due to a hamstring injury.
Chris Olave is a must-start every week after earning another 12 targets in Week 3.
It would be hard to bench Juwan Johnson after his eight-target, two-TD game, but he’s 23rd among TEs in route participation since Week 2, according to PFF, as he loses snaps to Noah Fant on third downs and to Oscar Delp in 12 personnel.
Devaughn Vele is still an option after disappointing with a 3/39/0 line in Week 3, but we’ll need the Falcons’ offense to push the Panthers for him to hit a ceiling.
And I wouldn’t play an RB in this offense as it’s likely to be a gross three-way split between Alvin Kamara, Kendre Miller, and CJ Donaldson.