Fantasy Football Week 6 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Every Game Previewed | Hoopes There It Is

Oct 14, 2026

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Welcome to another edition of Hoopes There It Is! We’re previewing every game in Week 6, highlighting advanced stats like EPA, success rate, pass rate over expected (PROE), and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) to help make the best decisions for your fantasy teams. I’ll provide a quick start/sit section at the top that stems from the longer write-ups. And if you’re interested in more, which I hope you are, you can jump to any of the 14 games this week. Let’s get started!

Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em

Cam Skattebo (Start): Skattebo’s role didn’t change in Week 5 as he takes most of the early-down snaps and splits the passing work with Tyrone Tracy. So, he ultimately ran about half of the team’s routes and out-carried Najee Harris, and Tracy combined 13 to eight. But he’s got a fantastic matchup this week. The Saints are bottom-five in rushing efficiency, success rate, and explosive run rate allowed. Skattebo hasn’t scored a TD since Week 1, meaning he could be cheap to get via trade. And the benefit of that idea is he gets to play the Cowboys’ atrocious defense during fantasy championship week.

All Broncos (Sit): While much was made of Sean Payton taking back play calling duties last week, the results didn’t improve. The Broncos hit 15th percentile passing efficiency with a brutal 32.4% passing success rate. And the team only had 20 targets for the day as they ran about 5% more than expected. Meanwhile, there’s no upside in this offense if the Broncos continue to be dead-last in air yards per attempt. This week, they play a Seahawks pass defense that is top four in efficiency, success rate, and explosive play rate allowed. I’m looking elsewhere.

Germie Bernard (Start): The Steelers hit +5.7% PROE last week and are surprisingly up to 2nd in the league. And it was Germie Bernard who paced the team with targets in Week 5, earning eight compared to DK Metcalf’s four. That was not the expectation going into the game, as Roman Wilson was expected to fill the void left by Michael Pittman’s injury, but Wilson hurt his finger during the game and is already ruled out for Week 6. And the underlying usage for Bernard was strong, as he only ran one fewer route than Metcalf. I think he’s a totally fine play this week.

All Chargers If Ladd McConkey Doesn’t Play (Sit): The Chargers have easily the lowest implied point total of the week, lower than both the Browns and the Titans. Last week, the Chargers opted for a pre-historic -18.4% PROE, but that only got them 12th percentile rushing efficiency and one of the worst rushing success rates I can remember at 18.2%. Their passing game was even worse, finishing the day at 5th percentile efficiency. Meanwhile, the RB split is disgusting, with Kimani Vidal taking 28 snaps compared to 23 for Keaton Mitchell and 20 for Omarion Hampton. What an abysmal runout here for this entire team.

Tertiary Rams Players (Start): The Rams are projected for 32.0 points this week, the highest I can remember seeing for quite a while. You’re obviously starting Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and Kyren Williams. But I’d also be willing to start Blake Corum and Tyler Higbee depending on my other options. It’s still Williams’ backfield despite a nice game from Corum, as Williams out-snapped Corum 60 to 22, ran 26 more routes, and took 11 more carries. Corum did see four targets, but that was on only eight routes, and he won’t see a 50% TPRR likely for the rest of the season. But as 12.5-point favorites, maybe we see a bit more Corum in this one. And then Higbee also earned six targets last week, and all we need is a TD, with the Rams’ massive implied point total improving the probability of that outcome.

Seahawks at Broncos (O/U 40.5, SEA -3.0)

Seahawks (21.75 Implied Points)

Putting the most generous spin on this, the Seahawks’ offense has been below average to start the year.
They’re 22nd in success rate and plays per game and 26th in efficiency and pass rate over expected (PROE).
They were even worse in Week 5, hitting -7.2% PROE, 13th-percentile passing efficiency, and awful 2nd-percentile rushing efficiency, albeit in a very tough matchup with the 49ers.
Unfortunately, it’s not like the Broncos’ defense is much easier, especially against the pass where they’re top eight in efficiency, explosive pass rate, and CPOE allowed.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is obviously a must-start, though he’s only seen 14 total targets in the last two weeks after seeing at least 11 in each of his first three games.
JSN is the only pass catcher I’d be interested in starting.
At RB, the split was predictable in Week 5 with Emanuel Wilson as the early-down back and George Holani as the receiving back.
The routes were almost even between the two, but Wilson took 20 carries to Holani’s four.
I don’t know Zach Charbonnet’s status at the time I’m writing, but my assumption is that he won’t be activated on a short week.
With consecutive games of 20+ carries and a TD, you could certainly do worse than Wilson, especially as the Broncos’ run defense is much weaker than their pass defense, with teams opting to run on them at the 10th-highest rate in the league versus expectation.

Broncos (18.75 Implied Points)

Putting the most generous spin on this, the Broncos’ offense has been below average to start the year.
And while much was made of Sean Payton taking back play-calling duties last week, the results weren’t any better.
The Broncos hit 15th percentile passing efficiency with a brutal 32.4% passing success rate.
And the team only had 20 targets for the day as they ran about 5% more than expected.
Evan Engram actually led the team with four targets, but he ran only 18 of the team’s 29 routes, followed by Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton, who earned three targets each.
I’m not especially excited to start any Broncos’ pass catcher this week given the implied points and the Seahawks’ pass defense that is top four in efficiency, success rate, and explosive play rate allowed.
There’s not a lot of upside in this offense if the Broncos continue to be dead-last in air yards per attempt.
The RB rotation for the Broncos is similar to last season as JK Dobbins led RJ Harvey in carries, 18 to three, but Harvey ran 13 routes to Dobbins’ five.
One thing in Harvey’s favor is that Tyler Badie is mostly out of our lives this season, with Harvey taking over the two-minute drill snaps that Badie had last year, according to PFF.

Texans at Jaguars (O/U 42.5, JAX -3.0)

Texans (19.75 Implied Points)

The big news here is that the Texans acquired Marvin Harrison Jr. from the Cardinals.
I think that just dings the prospects of the secondary WRs, mostly personal favorite Jaylin Noel, rather than changing how we’re playing this passing offense.
Noel only ran 20 of the team’s 37 routes last week, and now there is additional competition here, so the only WR you want to play is Nico Collins.
The more impactful fantasy news is David Montgomery’s groin injury, as he’s considered week-to-week and unlikely to play in Week 6.
Montgomery only played nine snaps last week, and then Woody Marks took nearly every other snap, crucially running 30 of the team’s 37 routes.
No one is running on the Jaguars recently, with the Jags’ run defense top-three in efficiency, success rate, and explosive run rate allowed.
They’ve completely shut down the Bengals and Eagles rushing attacks in consecutive weeks, and the weakness of this Texans offense is their running game.
So, if Marks gets there in fantasy, it should be through the air, with his 81% route rate last week really encouraging.

Jaguars (22.75 Implied Points)

Jalen Carter looked like the best player on the field last week and helped limit an otherwise good Jaguars’ rushing attack to only 11th percentile efficiency and a nasty 26.9% success rate.
It doesn’t get much easier this week against a Texans’ defense that has allowed explosive passes but otherwise is average to elite in every other metric.
Brenton Strange continues to be more involved than you’d think, tying Parker Washington for the team lead with eight targets last week.
Strange is up to TE14 in expected fantasy points per game and outperforming his expectation by 1.5 points per game, so you could certainly do worse.
But Washington is the guy you want here, especially after his 6/124/2 line last week.
Brian Thomas Jr. can be cut if you haven’t already done so, as he only ran 26 of the team’s 44 routes last week and didn’t catch any of his three targets.
And Bhayshul Tuten continues to *almost* explode for fantasy.
Tuten took 22 of the 24 RB carries last week and out-snapped the combination of LeQuint Allen and Chris Rodriguez 49 to 22.
According to PFF, Tuten took 100% of the snaps in the Jags’ first two drives for the first time this season.
It’s a tough matchup, and it’s annoying that he’s splitting short-yardage and goal-line work, but the nuclear Tuten game is coming.

Jets at Patriots (O/U 43.5, NE -7.5)

Jets (18.0 Implied Points)

The Jets won the game, but it was still a brutal day for the passing attack as they finished with 8th percentile efficiency in Week 5.
But this is an incredibly easy offense for our purposes, as Garrett Wilson earned a massive 40.7% target share and 32.4% targets per route run on his way to a 7/104/1 line.
Besides Wilson, the only other player you’re starting is Breece Hall if he’s healthy or Braelon Allen if he’s not.
With Hall sidelined, Allen took 24 of the 26 RB carries, had an 86% snap rate, and ran 28 of the team’s 35 routes.
The Patriots’ defense is slightly above average season-to-date, but they’ve allowed rushing efficiency against them.
We’ll just need the Jets to keep the game close to get volume from Allen.

Patriots (25.5 Implied Points)

We’ve gotten last year’s Patriots in consecutive games now, with the Pats hitting 98th percentile passing efficiency and a massive 62.2% passing success rate last week.
And that’s with Efton Chism pacing the team with six targets.
AJ Brown is eligible to return from IR this week, but I don’t know if that will happen at the time I’m writing.
I’d be willing to start Brown right away if he plays, but if he doesn’t, I’m going to be honest: I have no idea if Chism or Pop Douglas or Romeo Doubs will be the guy in Week 6.
Doubs ran eight more routes than Chism and 15 more than Douglas, so he’d still be my bet, but how confident are you feeling after he caught one pass last week?
Personal favorite Eli Raridon is starting to eat into Hunter Henry’s workload a bit, as Henry ran 26 of the team’s 38 routes, while Raridon was close with 20.
Raridon actually out-targeted Henry five to four last week.
Things are easier to parse at RB as TreVeyon Henderson suffered an ankle injury in Week 5 and is expected to miss multiple games.
Rhamondre Stevenson led Corey Kiner in snaps, 53 to 15 last week, and you want to start Stevenson this week with Henderson on the sideline and the Pats 7.5-point home favorites.

Ravens at Browns (O/U 41.5, BAL -4.5)

Ravens (23.0 Implied Points)

The Ravens only hit 25th percentile passing efficiency last week, but that was without Lamar Jackson, who missed the game with an ankle injury.
My assumption is that Jackson plays this week, but that’s not a given.
Zay Flowers is the only pass catcher that I really want to play, and he paced the team with nine targets last week.
Mark Andrews tied for 2nd on the team with six targets, but he only managed a 4/28/0 line despite a 71% route rate.
Part of that higher route rate was because Matt Hibner hurt his hand in the 1st half, though he was able to return.
Generally, though, he’s losing snaps to both Matt Hibner and Josh Cuevas.
And then you’re playing Derrick Henry, though it’s annoying that he only ran 12 of the team’s 38 routes, with Justice Hill running nearly twice as many routes on the day.

Browns (18.5 Implied Points)

The floor fell out on this Browns offense last week, hitting 20th percentile passing efficiency and only 7th percentile rushing efficiency.
Isaiah Bond actually led the team with seven targets, partially because KC Concepcion only played 11 snaps due to a head injury.
Denzel Boston is still my preferred WR here given the air yards, though the Ravens’ defense has limited opposing QBs to the 6th-lowest aDoT on the season.
But with only 18.5 implied points, it’s completely reasonable to look for other options.
And it’s a mess at RB because Quinshon Judkins was seen in a walking boot after the game and Raheim Sanders left in the 4th quarter with a hip injury.
I guess that leaves Jaleel McLaughlin as the guy, but Dylan Sampson is eligible to return from IR this week.
Sampson would certainly be my preferred option between the two, but I think my real preferred option is an RB on another team.

Titans at Colts (O/U 44.5, IND -7.0)

Titans (18.75 Implied Points)

Jahmyr Gibbs has nine touchdowns this season, while the Titans have…six.
The Titans only hit 7th percentile passing and 15th percentile rushing efficiency last week.
Tyjae Spears actually led the team with nine targets, followed by seven for Wan’Dale Robinson, and only four for Carnell Tate.
Last week was the first time this season that Tate’s target share dropped below 20%, which…isn’t ideal as someone who touted him in last week’s article.
Tate is still my preferred option in the offense, and the matchup is fine this week against a Colts pass defense that is very good in success rate but allows air yards and gives up explosives.
The Spears usage is interesting, as he played about a third of early-down snaps and over 50% of the total snaps, according to PFF, which are both improvements over recent weeks.
This Colts’ run defense is bottom-two in the league in efficiency and success rate allowed, with Spears a good play if Tony Pollard is traded before the game.

Colts (25.75 Implied Points)

Keenan Allen and Tyler Warren paced the Colts with nine targets each last week.
Warren is up to TE5 in expected fantasy points per game, so he’s a clear start, but his average target is 7% less valuable than the average receiver.
The issue with Warren’s targets is his aDoT, as he’s only seen one target with 20+ air yards this season and it was incomplete.
That’s also what is harming Josh Downs as his 43.1% catchable air yards rate is brutal with Daniel Jones struggling on almost every deep pass attempt.
The Titans’ pass defense is bad but does limit opposing offenses to a low aDoT, which should suit the Colts just fine.
Jonathan Taylor is obviously a must-start, but Seth McGowan played over 25% of the Colts’ snaps for the second consecutive week, which is more of an annoyance than anything actionable.

Steelers at Buccaneers (O/U 40.5, PIT -2.5)

Steelers (21.5 Implied Points)

This PROE thing seems to be real, as the Steelers hit +5.7% PROE last week and are up to 2nd in the league.
But it was their rushing attack that was super effective last week, hitting 97th percentile efficiency and a fantastic 52.4% success rate.
Germie Bernard paced the team in targets, earning eight compared to DK Metcalf’s four.
That was not the expectation going into the game, as Roman Wilson was expected to fill the void left by Michael Pittman’s injury, but Wilson hurt his finger and is already ruled out for Week 6.
Bernard only ran one fewer route than Metcalf, and I think he’s an interesting option at least with both Pittman and Wilson out.
Pat Freiermuth has seen at least four targets in every game and is up to TE8 in expected fantasy points per game.
He’s outperforming that because of the four TDs, but the usage is providing a reasonable floor, and he ran 27 of the team’s 34 routes last week.
Jaylen Warren was the story of last week, though, with 188 all-purpose yards and two TDs, with his one rushing TD being the first rushing TD for the Steelers this season.
Rico Dowdle is expected back from his toe injury this week, with the hope that the Steelers continue to feature Warren given his recent play, but you know, coaches are dumb.

Buccaneers (19.0 Implied Points)

Speaking of RB breakouts, Bucky Irving had 175 all-purpose yards and two TDs last week.
The Bucs decided to give Irving the first two goal-line snaps of Week 5, and Irving took advantage of those with a receiving TD and a rushing TD.
The carry was Irving’s first goal-line rush since the 2024 season, with Irving’s two goal-line snaps in Week 5 good for 40% of his goal-line snaps since the start of the 2025 season.
I genuinely don’t know how we could’ve predicted this.
The Bucs hit above the 70th percentile both passing and rushing last week, but they unfortunately don’t get to play the Cowboys every week.
This Steelers’ defense is more average as opposed to perhaps the worst defense in the league.
Emeka Egbuka easily paced the team with nine targets last week, and he’s the only pass catcher I’d like to start in fantasy.
And it’d be hard to sit Irving after his Week 5 performance.

Panthers at Eagles (O/U 40.5, PHI -1.5)

Panthers (19.5 Implied Points)

The Panthers are coming off their bye, which followed a surprise 32-26 win over the Lions in Week 4.
Jalen Coker missed Week 4 with a quad injury but is expected to play this week.
But in Coker’s absence, Tetairoa McMillan went scorched earth, earning 16 targets and finishing the day with a 14/192/2 line.
This Eagles’ defense has played largely below average this season, with McMillan a must-start and Coker also a good play if we’re confident about his health before the game starts.
On the ground, Chuba Hubbard took 63 of the Panthers’ 75 snaps in Week 4 and scored two rushing TDs.
But it’s not the easiest matchup, as the Eagles are 5th-best in limiting explosive runs and Jalen Carter played out of his mind last week.

Eagles (21.0 Implied Points)

As an Eagles fan, it’s hard for me to believe that they’d be favored against anyone in the NFL or SEC.
It’s a whole lotta red in the Eagles’ offense table, where their best stat, excluding air yards per attempt, is 25th in the league.
But they did hit 52nd percentile passing efficiency last week, and DeVonta Smith might return for Week 6.
Jalen Hurts’ completion percentage is 65.5% when Smith is on the field versus 48.6% when Smith is off the field, according to SIS.
But Smith’s return unfortunately doesn’t fix the offensive line, as according to Next Gen Stats, no QB in the league has been pressured more often than Hurts this season.
Smith’s return would make it less likely that Dontayvion Wicks or Makai Lemon produce for us in fantasy, though I think Dallas Goedert is still playable after his nine targets in Week 5.
It’s an absolute mess at RB, though it’s possible that Saquon Barkley returns from his hamstring injury this week.
If Barkley sits again, then I guess it’s Dameon Pierce as the lead back unless the Eagles sign someone or indicate it's finally Jaydon Blue szn.
Will Shipley only took 13 snaps last week before suffering a foot injury, and then Pierce took every other snap from that point.
Pierce was bad on his 11 attempts, but to be fair to him, he had more yards after contact than yards last week, and no one has been able to run on the Jaguars recently.
The Panthers’ run defense is average overall, and the Eagles are home favorites, but I’d still likely prefer other options besides Pierce even if Barkley sits.

Bears at Falcons (O/U 49.5, CHI -3.0)

Bears (26.25 Implied Points)

Finally, a game total basically at 50 points.
The expectation is that Caleb Williams returns from his hamstring injury this week, and that’s good because the Bears hit only 5th percentile passing efficiency in Week 5.
This Falcons’ defense is playing well across the board, but one good thing for the Bears’ pass catchers is that opponents opt to pass on the Falcons at a rate 4.4% above expectation to avoid their run defense.
And Week 5 was the second consecutive week that Kalif Raymond earned fewer targets than Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, and Colston Loveland.
At over 26 implied points, I’d be willing to start any of those three players depending on your other options.
At RB, Kyle Monangai didn’t play in Week 5, and my assumption at the time I’m writing is that he also sits this week.
D’Andre Swift only out-snapped Roschon Johnson 40 to 27 in Week 5 and only saw four more carries.
But the Bears lost in a blowout, and Johnson took the final 13 snaps of the game.
It’s a tough matchup on the ground for Swift, but he’s a must-start if Monangai sits.

Falcons (23.25 Implied Points)

The Falcons are 3rd in rushing efficiency on the season but struggled against the Ravens last week, hitting only 22nd percentile efficiency and a brutal 20.8% success rate.
This Bears’ run defense is bottom-11 in the three rushing statistics I track, so it should be a better day for Bijan Robinson in Week 6.
And while it didn’t show in the box score, the snap split between Bijan and Brian Robinson widened a bit in Week 5.
Kyle Pitts had his best game of the season in Week 5, doubling his previous game-high in targets while scoring his first TD of the year.
He’s TE39 (you read that right) in expected fantasy points per game, though, so I’d personally prefer to go with a different option.
Drake London paced the team with nine targets and is the only player besides Bijan Robinson who is worth playing.

Saints at Giants (O/U 45.5, NO -1.5)

Saints (23.5 Implied Points)

The Saints’ performance in Week 5 wasn’t a surprise.
We said last week that “the Vikings have done a good job limiting play volume for their opponents, which is what has been driving the value for Saints’ skill players all season.”
And here are the Saints’ plays by week: 86, 64, 72, 69, and…43 in Week 5.
And that’s why Chris Olave only earned six targets compared to 10+ in every other game this season.
Olave is the only must-start player on the Saints as the Giants defense has generally been poor this year but has limited opponent play volume at a top-five rate.
It’s still a disgusting RB split, with CJ Donaldson leading the team with 19 snaps compared to 14 for Kendre Miller and 12 for Alvin Kamara.
Miller is the preferred option, I guess, as he got 10 carries on his 14 snaps, but I’d love to see your alternatives if you feel a need to start Miller this week.

Giants (22.0 Implied Points)

The Giants had a massive 89 offensive snaps in their overtime tie last week.
And their +4.6% PROE was a stark change, marking the first time this season they passed at a rate above expectation.
All of that combined to generate 50 targets for the team, with somewhere between 18-20 going to Malik Nabers depending on your data source and 13 to Isaiah Likely.
Nabers is obviously a must-start, and we got positive usage for Likely as he played in 39 of 40 possible 12 personnel snaps in Week 5, according to PFF.
Likely is up to TE3 in expected fantasy points per game, and while the Giants will likely see 30 fewer offensive plays in most weeks, I’d still fire him up.
It was more of the same at RB in Week 5, with Cam Skattebo playing most of the early-down snaps, Najee Harris mixing in, and then Skattebo and Tyrone Tracy splitting the passing-down snaps, according to PFF.
Ultimately, Skattebo ran about half of the team’s routes, and out-carried Harris and Tracy combined 13 to eight.
It is a fantastic matchup for Skattebo this week, as the Saints are bottom-five in rushing efficiency, success rate, and explosive run rate allowed.
And since Skattebo hasn’t scored a TD since Week 1, he might be cheap to acquire, knowing he also plays the Cowboys in Week 17.

Cardinals at Rams (O/U 51.5, LAR -12.5)

Cardinals (19.5 Implied Points)

The Cardinals ultimately got blown out by the Lions in Week 5, and their 9th percentile rushing efficiency and 22.2% rushing success rate did not help.
But their passing attack was ok, hitting 60th percentile efficiency with a very pass-heavy approach at +7.1% PROE.
That led to 45 targets versus only 17 carries.
Trey McBride and Michael Wilson are must-starts, despite a down game from Wilson, who only earned seven targets.
This Rams’ pass defense is no joke, though, as they’re 4th in explosive play rate allowed and 1st in CPOE allowed.
At RB, Jeremiyah Love is the primary early down back, but Tyler Allgeier also mixes in there and handles the passing-down role.
In Week 5, Love only saw four more snaps than Allgeier, mostly because he ran nine fewer routes, but Love took 12 carries to Allgeier’s three.
That split does hide the fact that Love sat for basically the entire 4th quarter due to the blowout.
Unfortunately, as 12.5-point underdogs, that could happen again, with both Love and the Cardinals vocal about managing Love’s workload throughout the season.

Rams (32.0 Implied Points)

32.0 implied points are the highest I can remember seeing for quite a while.
The Rams’ passing attack was highly efficient and pass-heavy, hitting 87th percentile efficiency and +6.9% PROE.
That led to a massive 53 team targets, with a whopping 24 going in Puka Nacua’s direction.
With the Week 5 performance, Nacua is now easily pacing the WR field in expected fantasy points per game, as he’s in first place by almost 5 points per game (the same amount as Marvin Harrison Jr. or Brian Thomas Jr.).
In general, I’d be willing to start most Rams here, with Kyren Williams and Davante Adams must-starts, and both Blake Corum and Tyler Higbee option-dependent starts as well.
It’s still Williams’ backfield despite a nice game from Corum, as Williams out-snapped Corum 60 to 22, ran 26 more routes, and took 11 more carries.
Corum did see four targets, but that was on only eight routes, and he won’t see a 50% TPRR likely for the rest of the season.
But as 12.5-point favorites, maybe we see a bit more Corum in this one.

Chargers at Chiefs (O/U 42.5, KC -8.5)

Chargers (17.0 Implied Points)

The Chargers have the lowest implied point total of the week, lower than both the Browns and the Titans.
It’s impressive that they only lost by six points last week, as the underlying stats were atrocious.
They went with a prehistoric -18.4% PROE, but that only got them 12th percentile rushing efficiency and one of the worst rushing success rates I can remember at 18.2%.
To their slight credit, the passing game was even worse, finishing the day at 5th percentile efficiency.
The Ladd McConkey on/off splits for this offense are pretty damning, and McConkey didn’t play in Week 5 and his status for Week 6 is uncertain.
At 17 implied points, McConkey is the only player on this team that I’d be willing to start.
The RB split is disgusting, with Kimani Vidal taking 28 snaps compared to 23 for Keaton Mitchell and 20 for Omarion Hampton.
The deployment of Hampton is pretty obvious, as he saw a carry on 14 of his 20 snaps.
I guess if I had to start a Chargers RB, it would be Mitchell, as he tied Vial for 12 routes but actually earned targets on them with four targets on the day.
But again, I think it’s McConkey or no one.

Chiefs (25.5 Implied Points)

The Chiefs were on their bye in Week 5, which was good timing for Rashee Rice, who left Week 4 after only six snaps due to a hamstring injury.
I don’t know Rice’s status at the time I’m writing, but my assumption is that he plays in Week 6.
The man/zone splits for Rice have been damning throughout his career and have continued into this season.
But it’s just an average matchup on that front for Rice, as the Chargers’ pass defense is 16th in the league in terms of zone pass attempt share, according to SIS.
At nearly 26 implied points, I’d be willing to start Rice, Travis Kelce, and Xavier Worthy depending on your other options.
And then Kenneth Walker is obviously a must-start, as he and Jahmyr Gibbs are the only two RBs in the league with 20+ expected points per game.
If we’re being greedy, we’d like his route share to be higher than 33%, but he did take all 22 team RB carries in Week 4.

Bills at Raiders (O/U 53.5, BUF -5.5)

Bills (29.5 Implied Points)

It’s annoying that the Bills are down to 15th in PROE after a -5.7% mark in Week 5.
They hit 97th percentile passing efficiency and a 60.6% success rate, but on only 18 targets, less than both Nacua and Nabers had on their own in Week 5.
Ty Johnson was the only Bill with more than three targets.
Dalton Kincaid has totaled two receptions for 14 yards in his last two games.
The annoying thing is that Kincaid’s route participation was higher in Week 5 than in most weeks this season; he is just earning fewer targets per route on a team that wants fewer routes.
DJ Moore didn’t play in Week 5 due to his shoulder injury, and I don’t know his status at the time I’m writing.
Given that the Bills have a Week 7 bye, my assumption would be that Moore sits again.
Even if that happens, I don’t see how you start Kincaid this week, with Khalil Shakir my preferred option in the passing attack because he’s at least put up 80+ receiving yards in back-to-back games.
And then James Cook is a must-start as I’m fading the fumbling coach speak.
Cook has fumbled four times this season, but he still took 25 of the 27 RB carries in Week 5.
The more worrying thing for Cook is that he only ran nine of the team’s 28 routes, and I don’t see that changing because it’s directly connected with Ty Johnson’s return to the lineup.
Cook is RB11 in expected fantasy points per game and outperforming that by about three points per game thanks to TDs.

Raiders (24.0 Implied Points)

The Raiders got whooped by the Patriots in Week 5, losing 45 to 17.
But the passing attack was ok, hitting 48th percentile efficiency on +0.5% PROE.
Of the team’s 34 targets, nine went to Brock Bowers, and he’s both a must-start and the only pass catcher I’d like to play from this team.
And Bowers has a great matchup this week, as evidenced by the Raiders’ high 24 implied points.
The Bills’ pass defense is bottom five in efficiency, success rate, and explosive play rate allowed.
And then Ashton Jeanty was definitely not 100% going into the game, but he still played.
The Raiders managed his playing time by giving Dylan Laube 23 snaps compared to Jeanty’s 32.
The big drop for Jeanty’s playing time was on 3rd downs, according to PFF, and that’s when Laube played.
What’s weird is that Mike Washington only played five snaps, which was very different than my expectation going into Sunday when I thought Washington could have a big workload if Jeanty sat.
Monitor Jeanty’s health, but my assumption is that we’ll see a lot less Laube against a beatable Bills’ run defense.

Cowboys at Packers (O/U 52.5, GB -1.5)

Cowboys (25.5 Implied Points)

The Cowboys were consistent in Week 5, going pass-heavy with +2.8% PROE and finding a great success rate with that approach, hitting 51.1% on the day.
Those are very close to the Cowboys’ season averages of +3.8% and 51.8%, respectively.
The issue is the Cowboys aren’t hitting explosive plays, and when you happen to throw two interceptions like Dak Prescott did in Week 5, and you have perhaps the worst defense in the league, you can’t overcome the loss of those possessions.
The Cowboys only had the ball for 20 minutes, or one-third of the game in Week 5.
They still managed to get 40 targets in because they only had 13 carries, with George Pickens dominating the team with 13 targets.
Pickens’ high target day was partially due to a quad bruise that CeeDee Lamb suffered; I don’t know Lamb’s status at the time I’m writing, but my assumption is that Lamb plays in Week 6.
At nearly 26 implied points, you’re starting the key Cowboys’ pieces in Lamb, Pickens, and Javonte Williams.
And if Lamb sits, I think Ryan Flournoy is a viable start in his absence.

Packers (27.0 Implied Points)

Shoutout to the Packers for recognizing that they cannot run the ball and opting to just chuck it frequently down the field.
They hit +5.8% PROE in Week 5 and are now up to 6th in the league.
And Jordan Love completed six 20+ air yard passes in Week 5, the most in a game for any QB this season.
Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, and Tucker Kraft are must-starts this week against a Cowboys’ pass defense that is bottom-four in every stat that I track.
And we’re at least down to a two-man committee at RB.
MarShawn Lloyd and Pierre Strong split the snaps in Week 5, with Strong running six more routes but Lloyd seeing five more carries.
You’ll also see nine snaps and seven carries for Kaleb Johnson in the box score, but he didn’t play until garbage time.
Lloyd scored twice in Week 5, and he’s got a good matchup, but we’re counting almost exclusively on a TD if we’re playing him in fantasy.
And I like the routes from Strong, but he was so inefficient on the work that you can’t trust him at this point.

Commanders at 49ers (O/U 50.5, SF -7.5)

Commanders (21.5 Implied Points)

Jayden Daniels returned in Week 5 and led the Commanders to 69th percentile passing efficiency in a brutal tie to the Giants.
Terry McLaurin was clearly limited going into the game, but he tied for the team lead with four targets anyway.
I don’t know Stefon Diggs’ Week 6 status at the time I’m writing, but he missed Week 5 with a hamstring injury, and given the Commanders have a Week 7 bye, my assumption is he sits again.
And that’s great news for McLaurin as he averages 0.79 EPA per target and 12.3 yards per target with Diggs off the field this season, according to SIS, compared to 0.26 and 6.5, respectively, without Diggs.
McLaurin’s average target is also 12% more valuable than the NFL average because he’s getting both air yards and targets near the goal line.
If we hear that McLaurin is less limited in practice this week, that should spike his route rate from the 76% we got in Week 5.
But it’s a brutal matchup against a 49ers’ pass defense that is 1st in the league in explosive pass rate allowed, partially because they limit the aDoT of opposing QBs.
At RB, Rachaad White saw 15 more snaps than Jacory Croskey-Merritt, though JCM was given four more carries.
JCM got home in fantasy because he scored a TD, but I wouldn’t bank on that this week against a 49ers’ run defense that is 4th in efficiency and 1st in explosive run rate allowed.
I know it’s a tough matchup for Daniels, but no QB is averaging more scrambles per game than him this season, so you at least have a reasonable floor with the hope for more play volume than we saw in Week 5.

49ers (29.0 Implied Points)

The 49ers’ efficiency machine sputtered in Week 5, hitting 25th percentile passing and 27th percentile rushing efficiency.
Turnovers were the big problem, with Brock Purdy throwing an interception and the team losing two fumbles.
Mike Evans looks awesome, though, as he paced the team with nine targets and finished the day with a 7/113/1 line.
Evans is a must-start against a bad Commanders’ pass defense, with opponents passing on them at the 2nd-highest rate in the league versus expectation.
And I know George Kittle had a rough box score with a 5/24/0 line, but he’s TE9 in expected fantasy points per game and outperforming that expectation by over four points a game because, well, he’s George Kittle.
There also aren’t any other healthy pass catchers, as Deebo Samuel suffered a hamstring injury in Week 5 and is likely to miss a few weeks, potentially returning in Week 9 after the team’s bye.
And then you’re obviously starting Christian McCaffrey every week, especially since the concern about Kaelon Black is long past us, with CMC taking 49 snaps compared to Black’s 11 in Week 5.
Despite the efficiency being dragged down by turnovers, the 49ers’ 52.4% rushing success rate in Week 5 was awesome.
That was the highest rush success rate for any team against a Mike Macdonald defense.