Fantasy Football Week 5 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Every Game Previewed | Hoopes There It Is

Oct 07, 2026

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Welcome to another edition of Hoopes There It Is! We’re previewing every game in Week 5, highlighting advanced stats like EPA, success rate, pass rate over expected (PROE), and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) to help make the best decisions for your fantasy teams. I’ll provide a quick start/sit section at the top that stems from the longer write-ups. And if you’re interested in more, which I hope you are, you can jump to any of the 15 games this week. Let’s get started!

Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em

Mike Gesicki (Start): The Bengals are projected for about 25 points despite likely missing both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Bah gawd, that’s Mike Gesicki’s music! The Bengals didn’t even bother trying to run against the Jaguars last week, and they’re committed to the pass in a way that is extremely rare in 2026. The Dolphins’ defense just let TJ Hockenson earn 13 receptions against them in Week 4. Why can’t we get that for Gesicki here with even worse target competition?

Mark Andrews (Sit): The Ravens are likely to be without Lamar Jackson due to an ankle injury that sidelined him for the entire second half of Week 4. Without Jackson, the team is only projected for 20 points. Meanwhile, Andrews ran only 24 of the Ravens’ 34 routes last week. Matt Hibner and Josh Cuevas combined for three of seven snaps on 3rd downs, according to PFF, while Hibner’s playing time especially increased in 12 personnel. Andrews did score a TD last week, but unfortunately, we don’t get to take those points with us into this week.

Braelon Allen (Start): There’s not much else to do besides throw out the Jets’ entire Week 4. CeeLee Lamb easily out-targeted the entire team, and Kyle Monangai nearly had as many carries as the Jets had snaps. They only had the ball for about one quarter of the game, with only one drive lasting for more than five plays. Besides, well, all of that negative stuff, Braelon Allen’s role looked great as he took all 14 of the RB carries and ran 13 of the team’s 18 routes. Meanwhile, the Browns’ run defense is awful, ranking 28th in success rate and dead-last in explosive run rate allowed. Just wipe Week 4 from your memory.

Quinshon Judkins (Sit): This is obviously a tougher call as Judkins both scored a TD and saw a massive receiving spike in Week 4. But he still only ran 15 routes, and I’ll root for the Cowboys if Judkins maintains a better targets-per-route run rate than Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Browns are only projected for about 19 points, meaning the TD opportunities should be few and far between. I think his typical week will look more like 16 scoreless carries and two targets.

Carnell Tate (Start): I’m writing this, so I get to be logically inconsistent if I want to be! The Titans are projected for an abysmal 16 implied points. But Tate is starting to dominate volume on this bad offense. According to JJ Zachariason, the only other rookie WRs since 2016 with a higher target share than Tate through four games were Malik Nabers, Drake London, and Puka Nacua. Tate is one of two players in the league with over 50% of their team’s air yards; he’s WR19 in expected fantasy points per game, WR10 in ESPN’s open score, and is facing a Texans’ defense that is bottom-four in explosive pass rate allowed. Maybe Tate can get half of the Titans’ points this week like he’s getting half of their air yards?

Saints Not Named Chris Olave (Sit): This is just based on the matchup. The Vikings’ defense is first overall in six of the categories I track. You’re starting Olave every week against any opponent. But I wonder how much will be left over, as the Vikings have done a good job limiting play volume for their opponents? And play volume has been the key thing driving the value for Saints’ skill players all season.

Buccaneers at Cowboys (O/U 47.5, DAL -8.5)

Buccaneers (19.5 Implied Points)

The 19.5 points are more a testament to this Cowboys’ defense than anything positive for the Buccaneers’ offense.
Some credit to Jalon Daniels as the Bucs’ 33rd percentile passing efficiency and 45.9% pass success rate were much better than I expected.
But the ceiling here for the pass catchers is so low because the Bucs passed at a rate 5.9% below expectation and Daniels’ 4.2-yard aDoT was two yards shorter than any other qualified passer this season.
With the air yards in mind, Cade Otton and Chris Godwin paced the team with six targets each, followed by four for Emeka Egbuka.
Egbuka was the leader of the three with an aDoT of…5.9 yards.
It’s a fantastic matchup for the passing attack, but it’s more than fair to question whether the Bucs can take advantage of it?
Bucky Irving dominated the carries with 16 but split the routes with Kenny Gainwell and was ultimately out-targeted by Gainwell two to zero.
And then Sean Tucker saw three snaps, which you’d typically expect to be a nothing burger on most teams, but on the Bucs that meant Tucker was on the field for the Bucs’ first true goal-line snap the season, scoring a TD on that goal-line carry.
Week 4 was the nightmare scenario for Irving managers, with him losing receiving work to Gainwell, losing goal-line work to Tucker, and then the Bucs offense generally being terrible.

Cowboys (28.0 Implied Points)

The Cowboys are up to 3rd in pass rate over expectation (PROE) on the season and passed 1.5% more than expected in Week 4.
And they were efficient as usual against the Texans, hitting 77th percentile passing and 73rd percentile rushing efficiency.
The team had 41 targets, with 20 (!) of them in the direction of CeeDee Lamb, who went scorched earth against the Texans.
Javonte Williams was next in line with five targets, meaning Lamb saw four times as many targets as any of his teammates.
Speaking of Williams, he again dominated the RB carries, taking 19 of the 22, and ultimately scored three TDs.
What’s interesting, though, is Williams saw a season-low 65% of early-down snaps, according to PFF, as Tyler Goodson got more involved.
You’re starting both Lamb and Williams, but I’m sure you’re frustrated if you’re a George Pickens manager.
He only saw three targets last week and is underperforming his expected fantasy points per game at the 5th-highest rate among qualifying WRs.
The big problem to me seems to be the Cowboys’ structural decision to lower Dak Prescott’s aDoT by a full yard relative to last year, and then not hitting on their deep passes when they do attempt them, with the Cowboys 31st in explosive pass rate through four weeks.
The Buccaneers’ defense is a good matchup for what the Cowboys have been doing, as they both limit explosives and opposing QB aDoTs but are 7th-worst in CPOE.
That hits me again as a Lamb game, not a Pickens game.

Eagles at Jaguars (O/U 42.5, JAX -6.5)

Eagles (18.0 Implied Points)

That’s right; the Eagles are projected for 1.5 fewer points than the Jalon Daniels Buccaneers.
It’s all red for the Eagles’ offense, as they’re not better than 18th in any of the offensive stats I track.
They hit only the 22nd percentile in passing efficiency last week, and even worse, the 7th percentile in rushing efficiency.
The Eagles’ saving grace was 3rd down efficiency through three weeks, and then they went 0/12 on 3rd down in Week 4.
On the ground, Saquon Barkley played only four snaps due to a hamstring injury that should cost him at least this week.
And then backup Tank Bigsby just landed on IR as he needs core muscle surgery.
That leaves Will Shipley and an assortment of practice squad RBs (is it finally happening for Jaydon Blue?!?) to take on a fantastic Jaguars’ run defense.
The Bengals opted to not even try to run the ball on them last week, hitting +8.3% PROE for 53 (!) targets compared to only 13 carries.
But Chase Brown set a new career high in receptions, meaning if Shipley gets there for fantasy, it’ll be through the air.
Speaking of the air, DeVonta Smith is not expected to play again this week.
In his absence last week, Darius Cooper led the way with seven targets and two TDs.
I still lean toward Dontayvion Wicks as my preferred play here, and I think the Jaguars’ 6th-ranked EPA per play pass defense is a bit fraudulent, as they’re much worse in both success rate and explosive play rate.
But Jalen Hurts has been bad this season, with consecutive games of -0.35 EPA per play, going 5/15 for 46 yards against the blitz last week.
And now Lane Johnson just retired; this is as an Eagles fan and not a fantasy analyst, but it’s so over.

Jaguars (24.5 Implied Points)

The Jaguars only had 22 team targets last week, barely beating CeeDee Lamb.
That’s the glaring issue for this team in fantasy, as they’re 20th in PROE and 30th in plays per game.
Brenton Strange led the way with eight targets last week, but I’d guess that is more a Bengals’ defense stat than anything we can expect moving forward.
If the Parker Washington manager in your league is panicking, this might be a good time to buy.
On the ground, Bhayshul Tuten had two overturned TDs, so he was *this* close to a nuclear Week 4.
He led Chris Rodriguez in routes 11 to six, targets two to zero, and carries 17 to six, with LeQuint Allen involved for seven routes as well.
This could be the week for Tuten against a struggling Eagles’ run defense.

Bengals at Dolphins (O/U 42.5, CIN -7.0)

Bengals (24.75 Implied Points)

The Bengals opted to only pass the ball against a great Jaguars’ run defense, finishing the day with 53 targets compared to 13 carries.
Ja’Marr Chase only ran 10 routes before entering concussion protocol; my assumption is he misses Week 5 but is back for Week 6.
Tee Higgins paced the team with a fantastic 16 targets, but then he also left the game in the 4th quarter with a leg injury; my assumption is he misses Week 5 as well.
That led to a new career high in receptions for Chase Brown, nine targets for Dohnte Meyers, seven for Mitchell Tinsley, and five for Mike Gesicki.
Brown played more than he typically does on 3rd down last week because the Bengals were putting him in the slot at times with Samaje Perine in the backfield.
Brown remains a buy-low at least until he scores his 2nd TD of the season, underperforming his expected fantasy points by 2.6 per game.
But he’s been bad on the ground as he’s only better than MarShawn Lloyd in yards after contact per attempt.
If both Chase and Higgins are out, I genuinely think you can start all of Meyers, Tinsley, and Gesicki against a terrible Dolphins’ pass defense on a Bengals team that is 1st in PROE.
Meyers is my preferred play at WR as he ran 54 of the team’s 58 routes last week, highest on the team.
And this Dolphins defense just let TJ Hockenson earn 13 receptions against them last week, meaning Gesicki could see some volume.

Dolphins (17.75 Implied Points)

Our expectations were low for the Dolphins’ passing attack against the Vikings last week, but holy fuck!
The Dolphins passed at a rate 13.2% below expectation and hit only 2nd percentile rushing efficiency compared to all games from 2021 to 2025.
They had three fewer targets as a team than CeeDee Lamb last week.
They only had 39 snaps, which was less than half the snaps of a few other teams in Week 4.
It’s a better matchup this week, I suppose, though I’m worried about Malik Willis’ sack rate against a Bengals defense that is 3rd in the league in that stat.
The Bengals pass defense always gives up fantasy points to opposing TEs, but can Malik Willis get the ball to Greg Dulcich? It’s a stoppable force meeting a movable object moment.
On the ground, Ollie Gordon was ultimately the RB you wanted, but the game didn’t start out that way.
Jaylen Wright was the starter but then lost work to Gordon as he struggled, with Gordon ultimately playing 14 snaps in the 2nd half compared to Wright’s two, according to PFF.
Gordon is easily the guy I want here given his performance last week, but we’ll need explosives like his 53-yard run last week again given the Dolphins’ rank dead-last in plays per game.

Bears at Packers (O/U 45.5, CHI -3.0)

Bears (24.25 Implied Points)

It didn’t translate for fantasy, but Tyson Bagent and the Bears hit 80th percentile passing efficiency last week, including an excellent 65% passing success rate.
Bagent ultimately just didn’t throw for a TD pass as the team had 30 targets compared to an unbelievable 53 carries.
One positive for fantasy was that Colston Loveland saw nine targets, while Rome Odunze and Luther Burden each saw six, compared to only two for Kalif Raymond.
Kyle Monangai had a massive two-TD day, leading D’Andre Swift in snaps 50 to 33 and carries 30 to 15 while splitting the routes.
Swift had his usual lead role in the offense until he fumbled and then sat on the bench for the final three drives of the game.
This feels like an excellent sell-high moment for Monangai and/or buy-low moment for Swift, as these silly fumbling punishments don’t tend to extend to the next game.
Also, the Bears won’t run 89 (!) plays every week, as that was a top-15 mark for any team since at least 2016, according to JJ Zachariason.

Packers (21.25 Implied Points)

It looked better in the box score, but from an efficiency standpoint, the Packers were still awful running the ball in Week 4, hitting 15th percentile efficiency.
If you had to pick one of the backs, MarShawn Lloyd is the guy you want as he doubled Kaleb Johnson in snaps and routes, earning five targets to Johnson’s zero.
Meanwhile, Chris Brooks left in the 1st quarter last week due to a leg injury.
It’s a good matchup against a bad Bears’ run defense, but I’d still prefer not to start any Packers RB.
In the pass game, Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft paced the team with seven targets each.
Christian Watson had a rough day with only three targets, and he ran six fewer routes than Golden on the day as the Packers used 13 personnel more frequently with Golden as the lone WR on the field.
It’s a tough matchup on paper for the Packers passing game, but this is still the Bears defense that let the Panthers throw for 361 yards in Week 1.
And we’re surprisingly getting pass volume from the Packers this year, given their inability to run the ball, as they’re 7th in PROE compared to 18th last year.

Texans at Titans (O/U 38.5, HOU -7.5)

Texans (23.0 Implied Points)

The Texans were fantastic passing the ball against the Cowboys last week, hitting 89th percentile efficiency and an excellent 60% success rate.
They were equally bad running the ball, with 17th percentile efficiency and a brutal 22.2% success rate.
That’s mostly been the story for the Texans all season, and I wouldn’t start David Montgomery or Woody Marks as they’re splitting the snaps and not earning any targets.
Nico Collins is the only Texan I really want to play as he paced the team with seven targets last week, catching all of them for 118 yards and two TDs.
But you don’t have to twist my arm to talk about Jaylin Noel.
Noel played 86.5% of snaps in 11 personnel last week after averaging 59.3% of those snaps from Weeks 1-3, according to PFF.
Noel isn’t startable; he might not even be an add depending on your league, but put him on your watchlist, as the Texans might finally have faith in a player that is too talented for the role they’ve given him so far.

Titans (15.5 Implied Points)

Woof on 15.5 implied points.
Tony Pollard saw 12 more snaps than Tyjae Spears last week, including 14 more carries and, surprisingly, two more targets.
But with 50 total yards on 20 opportunities, you’re betting on a TD from Pollard with the lowest team total on the week.
I think you can start Carnell Tate, though, which is the first time this season I’ve suggested playing a Titan.
According to JJ Zachariason, the only other rookie WRs since 2016 with a higher target share than Tate through four games were Malik Nabers, Drake London, and Puka Nacua.
Tate is one of two players in the league with over 50% of their team’s air yards; he’s WR19 in expected fantasy points per game, WR10 in ESPN’s open score, and is facing a Texans’ defense that is bottom-four in explosive pass rate allowed.
“It’s time for Tate’s first career TD” – my brain, for a team with 15.5 implied points.

Browns at Jets (O/U 39.5, NYJ -2.5)

Browns (18.5 Implied Points)

The Browns are 9th in PROE, 12th in passing efficiency, and 8th in passing success rate on the season.
They were efficient passing the ball again last week, hitting 83rd percentile efficiency, though the betting markets are still clearly skeptical with only 18.5 implied points this week.
Both KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston ran all 37 of the Browns’ routes last week, and led the team with eight and seven targets, respectively.
Boston is my preferred start of the two, as he’s the other player alongside Tate with more than 50% of his team’s air yards.
Jerry Jeudy is now completely out of this offense after he ran only 19 routes, with both Malachi Corley and Isaiah Bond combining for nine routes.
Quinshon Judkins surprisingly also saw seven targets, but that was on only 15 routes, and he won’t see a better targets-per-route run than Jaxon Smith-Njigba in a typical week.
Judkins both scored a TD and saw a huge spike in receiving volume last week, but I think his typical week will look more like 16 scoreless carries and two targets.

Jets (21.0 Implied Points)

I think we just throw out last week’s performance for the Jets.
They only had 32 offensive snaps last week, turning those into 14 targets and 14 carries.
CeeDee Lamb had six more targets than this entire team last week.
Kyle Monangai nearly had as many carries as the Jets had snaps.
The Bears dominated time of possession 43 minutes to 17 minutes; so, the Jets offense basically played half a game versus a typical offense.
They had one drive that lasted more than five plays.
You’re starting Garrett Wilson every week despite the box score from Week 4.
I know Kenyon Sadiq gave you the stinky goose, but the four targets were actually bullish given all of the Jets’ team context; we just need more plays and for at least some of those targets to be catchable.
And then Braelon Allen is also startable against a bad Browns’ run defense as he took all 14 of the Jets’ RB carries and ran 13 of the team’s 18 routes; Isaiah Davis only saw two snaps in Week 4.

Raiders at Patriots (O/U 45.5, NE -3.5)

Raiders (21.0 Implied Points)

The Raiders hit 74th percentile passing efficiency in Week 4 but struggled to 18th percentile rushing efficiency; that was representative of their season so far.
They had a massive 84 snaps last week, nearly three times as many as the Jets.
Brock Bowers paced the team with 11 targets, followed by nine for Michael Mayer, and eight for both Tre Tucker and Ashton Jeanty.
Bowers and Jeanty are still the only Raiders I want to start.
Jeanty dominated Mike Washington in snaps 56 to 18, routes 31 to five, targets eight to two, and carries 15 to nine.
That’s right, Washington saw a carry on half of his snaps.
Jeanty hasn’t scored since Week 1, and we’ll eventually want some actual rushing efficiency here, but the receiving volume is keeping him afloat for now.
Jeanty is underperforming his expected fantasy points per game at the 3rd highest rate among qualifying RBs.

Patriots (24.5 Implied Points)

Out of absolute nowhere, the Patriots hit 85th percentile passing efficiency against the Bills and looked like the team we saw for most of the 2025 season.
The Bills opted to increase their blitz rate to 38% in Week 4, but Drake Maye carved them up against the blitz to the tune of 0.22 EPA per play with a 10.1-yard aDoT.
Romeo Doubs matched his reception total from Weeks 1-3 combined in Week 4, scoring two TDs in the process.
Doubs is the only pass catcher I’m particularly interested in playing against a Raiders’ pass defense that is top-five in efficiency, CPOE, and sack rate.
I say this every week, but Rhamondre Stevenson is still the RB you want in New England.
He led TreVeyon Henderson in snaps 50 to 28, routes 25 to 12, and targets four to one, though Henderson did take one more carry.
The two backs split the early-down work, but Stevenson takes all of the third-down, two-minute, short-yardage, and goal-line snaps, according to PFF.
One callout is that Stevenson suffered a right knee injury with a minute left in the game last week, and I don’t know his status at the time I’m writing.
Henderson is a must-start if Stevenson sits.

Giants at Commanders (O/U 43.5, WAS -3.5)

Giants (20.0 Implied Points)

The Giants passed the ball at a rate 8.3% below expectation but struggled to do anything with the rushing volume.
They hit 12th percentile rushing efficiency and a very bad 23.3% rushing success rate last week.
Through the air, Isaiah Likely earned a fantastic 12 targets and is startable despite not scoring a TD since Week 1.
And Malik Nabers can safely go back into starting lineups after he saw some actual air yards last week, hitting a 6/112/1 line on seven targets and 30 of the team’s 33 routes.
On the ground, Cam Skattebo is still the clear lead back, taking 18 of the team’s 28 RB carries and running about half the team’s routes.
But Tyrone Tracy took the majority of third-down snaps last week, according to PFF, while Najee Harris’ involvement took Skattebo’s early-down snap rate to a season-low.
We’ll need his targets to tick back up, and the fact that he hasn’t scored since Week 1 isn’t helping either.

Commanders (23.5 Implied Points)

Week 4 was rough for the Commanders offense as they lost Marcus Mariota after only four pass attempts.
Athan Kaliakmanis struggled in his first action, leading the Commanders to only 19th percentile passing efficiency and a brutally low 27.3% passing success rate.
Neither got home in the box score, but Stefon Diggs and Antonio Williams paced the team with eight and seven targets, respectively, and are starts if Jayden Daniels plays and Terry McLaurin sits.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt led the way on the ground, but annoyingly split the snaps with a combination of Austin Ekeler and Kaytron Allen; Craig Reynolds also popped up for six snaps and two carries.
JCM actually played on nine of the Commanders’ first 10 snaps and took all three third-down snaps on their first two drives, according to PFF.
But he really struggled on that work, so the Commanders started mixing in the other three backs, making JCM a must-sit until we see his role solidify.

Colts at Steelers (O/U 44.5, PIT -2.5)

Colts (21.0 Implied Points)

The Josh Downs breakout has been delayed once again, as he was out-targeted by both Laquon Treadwell and Ashton Dulin in Week 4 as the Colts struggled to 7th percentile passing efficiency.
Sigh; I’m still starting both Downs and Tyler Warren, but none of the Colts’ passing peripherals are promising.
Warren is even more concerning because he hasn’t seen a 15+ air yard target this season.
Jonathan Taylor is at least excellent, as the Colts lead the league in rushing efficiency.
Week 4 was a bit strange, though, as Seth McGowan took 19 snaps.
McGowan usually plays in the 2nd quarter, but in Week 4, he took an entire drive for himself.
There’s nothing that actionable here, just a change for Taylor not to see basically every RB carry and route.

Steelers (23.5 Implied Points)

Despite losing to the Browns last week, the Steelers’ offense was ok, hitting 60th percentile passing and 77th percentile rushing efficiency.
DK Metcalf paced the team with nine targets; he’s been a theoretical buy-low candidate every week this season and he’s still underperforming his expected fantasy points by three per game, the 3rd-highest rate among qualifying WRs.
Some of those deeper targets actually hit for the first time in Week 4, though, as Metcalf earned 22, 28, and 43-yard receptions.
This is going to be volatile week-to-week, and you’re going to get more duds like we saw from Weeks 1-3.
Jaylen Warren remains my preferred start on the team as earned six targets and took 17 of the 19 RB carries.
Michael Pittman has to remain on benches until we see his role solidify, as he ran 12 fewer routes than Metcalf with both Germie Bernand and Roman Wilson taking snaps from him.

Vikings at Saints (O/U 42.5, MIN -1.5)

Vikings (22.0 Implied Points)

The Vikings’ passing attack struggled without Justin Jefferson in Week 4, hitting 33rd percentile efficiency and a bad 38.3% success rate.
TJ Hockenson saw 13 targets from Weeks 1-3; well, he saw 13 targets just in Week 4.
Now, a big part of that was Jefferson sitting, but Hockenson’s role also improved with Josh Oliver on IR.
According to PFF, Hockenson played 88.1% of the snaps in one-TE sets on early downs after playing just 32.1% in those situations over the first two weeks.
I think Jefferson will be back for this game, but if he sits, I think you fire up Hockenson again and chase the targets.
But besides Jefferson, it’s Aaron Jones that I want to start from this offense.
Jones saw 57 snaps in Week 4 compared to a combined 21 for DeeJay Dallas and Demond Claiborne.
Jones ran 29 of the team’s 43 routes, earned seven targets, and took 20 of the 23 RB carries.
And now he gets a Saints’ defense that is bottom-three in rushing efficiency, success rate, and explosive run rate allowed.

Saints (20.5 Implied Points)

The Saints were about average passing the ball in Week 4, but they couldn’t run at all, and their defense allowed the Falcons to do whatever they wanted.
Chris Olave paced the team with 12 targets, and he’s now WR1 overall in my expected fantasy points model.
Devaughn Vele earned eight targets, Juwan Johnson seven, and Alvin Kamara six.
Kamara was in a gross three-way committee as we expected, but was able to punch in two TDs; he’s a clear sell-high candidate given his name value and low snap rate.
It’s a brutal matchup this week against a Vikings defense that is first overall in six of the categories I track.
You’re starting Olave every week against any opponent, but Vele and Johnson are option-dependent sits, especially as the Vikings have done a good job limiting play volume for their opponents, which is what has been driving the value for Saints’ skill players all season.

Broncos at Chargers (O/U 42.5, DEN -3.5)

Broncos (23.0 Implied Points)

The Broncos’ offensive efficiency was almost exactly average last week, and the 37 team targets were high for them given they’re only running 57 plays a game.
The issue for the pass catchers is that Bo Nix’s aDoT is 2nd-lowest in the league, with RJ Harvey earning 10 targets last week, four more than any WR.
So, the offense has generally been average to below-average, with low play volume, and no air yards.
This could be a good week to change that approach, though, as the Chargers’ pass defense allows QBs to operate with a deeper aDoT and is susceptible to explosive passes.
In the backfield, Harvey led JK Dobbins in snaps, 30 to 21, while Tyler Badie also got 13 snaps.
But the split was mostly due to game situation, as the Broncos ran 24 plays on 3rd downs and two-minute drills, up from only seven in the previous week, according to PFF; Dobbins doesn’t play in either scenario.
That’s now back-to-back games of 7+ targets for Harvey, though, so the offensive focus is evident.

Chargers (19.5 Implied Points)

Week 4 was another bad passing day for the Chargers, even as they hit a prehistoric -13.9% PROE.
Ladd McConkey ultimately ran only 15 of the team’s 43 routes due to a foot injury, and even if he does play in Week 5, we could see another day like this one.
In McConkey’s absence, Oronde Gadsden paced the team with seven targets on 26 of the team’s 43 routes.
Keaton Mitchell surprisingly earned six targets, while Tre Harris earned five.
Mitchell, Kimani Vidal, and Omarion Hampton each had the same number of snaps in Week 4, which is an untenable situation for fantasy.
Mitchell is eating into Hampton’s early-down work, while Vidal is taking the passing-down work; it’s tough to see Hampton as anything other than a sell-low at this point, given the three-way backfield split and the 31st-ranked offense.
It’s a good matchup on the ground this week at least, but who even will benefit from it?

49ers at Seahawks (O/U 46.5, SEA -2.5)

49ers (22.0 Implied Points)

The 49ers hit 80th percentile passing efficiency in Week 4, a bad day relative to their previous two games.
They’re now easily first in EPA per play, leading the league in passing efficiency and success rate, while Brock Purdy has yet to take a sack this season.
I’m not harping on their lower play volume as I have for so many other teams because they’re massively efficient; if they were less efficient, they’d have more plays.
Mike Evans’ status was uncertain for the entire week, and then he went out and led the team with eight targets.
George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Christian McCaffrey all saw 4+ targets as well.
Kittle is now on a three-game TD streak, and his playing time has increased each week this season as he ramps up from an Achilles tear that somehow happened in January.
And McCaffrey easily paced Kaelon Black in snaps 49 to 17 and carries 15 to six.
This Seahawks’ defense is an incredibly tough matchup across the board, but you’re starting your key 49ers’ pieces until further notice.

Seahawks (24.5 Implied Points)

The Seahawks were massively run-heavy once again in Week 4, but the difference was they weren’t efficient passing.
The team as a whole had fewer targets than CeeDee Lamb, with regression finally hitting Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who finished with a still-good 5/76/0 line.
In addition to JSN, I’d start Emanuel Wilson in Week 5.
We’ve got this small window for Wilson with Jadarian Price on IR and Zach Charbonnet’s return expected to be Week 6 at the earliest.
Last week was Wilson’s second game this season with 21 carries, but the four targets with designed screens were the most encouraging thing.
Wilson won’t earn a target on a third of his routes every week, but he should have a good day against a 49ers’ run defense that is 2nd-worst in success rate.

Lions at Cardinals (O/U 54.5, DET -4.5)

Lions (29.5 Implied Points)

Finally, a game with a projected total above 50 points.
The Lions were chasing points last week and finished the day with +2.6% PROE; that led to 44 targets compared to only 15 carries.
And we got involvement from all of the big four, with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta earning 10 targets each, followed by eight for Jameson Williams, and six for Jahmyr Gibbs, who also took every RB carry.
It was nice to see Williams in particular earn eight targets after back-to-back four-target games, and he went over 100 receiving yards for the first time this season.
At nearly 30 implied points, against a bad Cardinals’ pass defense, start your four Lions.

Cardinals (25.0 Implied Points)

It was a brutal efficiency day for the Cardinals’ passing attack in Week 4, though their 43.9% success rate wasn’t quite as bad.
They still finished with 34 targets, with 13 going to Michael Wilson, 12 to Trey McBride, and…three to Marvin Harrison Jr.
While Harrison scored a TD, he also saw a season-low snap rate.
Meanwhile, Michael Wilson is up to WR4 in expected fantasy points per game, tucked between CeeDee Lamb and Puka Nacua.
Wilson is earning insane volume; he’s 7th in the league in team air yards share, and he’s getting red zone targets.
Wilson and McBride are must-starts against a Lions’ defense that is fast becoming a cheat code in fantasy.
At RB, Tyler Allgeier led Jeremiyah Love in snaps and routes, but took six fewer carries.
A big part of that split was the 16 two-minute drill snaps in Week 4, according to PFF, and Allgeier handled all 16 of those.
Love should see more work in a typical game, but quotes after the game make it clear that both Love and the team want his workload managed.
I’d fire Love back up in this spot, though.

Ravens at Falcons (O/U 43.5, ATL -3.5)

Ravens (20.0 Implied Points)

The big story here is that Lamar Jackson is unlikely to play in Week 5 due to an ankle injury that sidelined him for the entire second half of Week 4.
That’s the reason for the low 20 implied points.
You’re starting both Derrick Henry and Zay Flowers because they’re superstars, but I’d be willing to sit anyone else, including Mark Andrews.
Zay Flowers set a new career high in routes from the slot last week, according to Sumer Sports, and he hit his 2nd game with 110+ receiving yards in just the first half.
Andrews scored a TD in Week 4, but only ran 24 of the team’s 34 routes.
Matt Hibner and Josh Cuevas combined for three of seven snaps on 3rd downs, according to PFF, with Hibner’s playing time especially increasing in 12 personnel versus prior weeks.

Falcons (23.5 Implied Points)

The Falcons’ offense was unbelievable in Week 4, hitting 97th percentile passing and 99th percentile rushing efficiency.
The team only needed 18 targets to easily beat the Saints, with London earning six of them.
Meanwhile, Kyle Pitts only ran nine routes, with three other TEs combining for 16 routes.
I don’t know if it was a punishment or some odd strategy, but Pitts barely played on the first two drives before bouncing back up to his typical snap rate for the rest of the game.
That was probably a weird blip, but he hasn’t earned more than three targets in a game this season; you can safely look elsewhere at TE.
And you’re starting Bijan Robinson because he’s insane despite losing a larger chunk of playing time than we’d like to Brian Robinson.

Bills at Rams (O/U 54.5, LAR -3.0)

Bills (25.75 Implied Points)

We have to wait until Monday night for the second 50+ game total of the week.
Week 4 was probably the worst game we’ve seen from this passing attack, hitting a bad 35.9% success rate relative to our expectations for Josh Allen.
That was also the 2nd consecutive game where the Bills passed at a rate below expectation, reversing course from Weeks 1 and 2.
DJ Moore only ran 14 routes as he aggravated his shoulder injury; this could be a real nuisance this year as he could have more days like this where he plays but then exits early after landing on his shoulder.
In Moore’s absence, Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman paced the team with eight and seven targets, respectively, with both solid starts if Moore sits.
Dalton Kincaid’s route rate dropped to 55% in Week 4, a notable decline from Weeks 1-3, as the Bills relied less on their TEs through more 11 personnel.
That’s now two straight dud games from Kincaid after getting off to a scorching start to the season.
It’s a very difficult matchup for the passing attack this week, so I think it’s completely reasonable to look at your alternative TE options.
At RB, James Cook took 12 of the 14 RB carries but split the routes with Ty Johnson, which will continue to limit Cook’s ceiling.

Rams (28.75 Implied Points)

The Rams had a massive 84 snaps in Week 4 and passed at a rate 4.2% above expectation as they went into comeback mode against the Eagles.
They ended the day with an insane 50 targets, with Kyren Williams earning his typical number of targets in a season (13) in just one game.
The Rams are now up to 9th in RB target share after finishing among the bottom-two teams every season since 2020, according to JJ Zachariason.
Williams dominated the RB work in Week 4, taking 70 snaps to Blake Corum’s 13, as Williams always plays over Corum when the Rams are down and chasing.
And then Puka Nacua earned 12 targets, while Davante Adams earned nine.
At nearly 29 implied points, against a bad Bills’ defense, you’re starting Nacua, Adams, and Williams.