Hoopes There It Is: Week 10 Game Preview

Nov 05, 2025

Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Image

Week 9 was full of massive upsets, with both the Panthers and Vikings winning outright despite being double-digit underdogs going into the week. I’ll try to keep the whinging to a minimum, but I’d also include the Steelers beating the Colts on this list. All it took was six (!) Colts’ turnovers to let the Steelers win by one possession. I’ve expressed this sentiment before, but every single possession in football is so important. A turnover in basketball in the first quarter hardly matters. If the Eagles’ opponent turns the ball over in the first quarter, it might mean the Eagles won’t pass the ball in the entire second half.

With that in mind, the graph below shows average series success rate by team. Let me explain this a bit more. A series is just a new set of downs. So, you might have as few as one or as many as double-digit series in a drive. And success on any series is a first down or a touchdown. The Colts decided to get all of their unsuccessful series out of the way the week I bet on them. Thanks, guys!

I like the series success stat because it incorporates fourth-down decision-making. If you punt on every fourth down that you should actually go on, it’s going to hurt your series success rate. Why this matters for fantasy football is that we need successful series for our players to get fantasy scoring opportunities. It’s really that simple. In my view, we’re shooting for offenses in that first grouping (every team ahead of the 49ers) that have concentrated skill player groups. The lack of target concentration hurts the Bills, Patriots, and Packers. And we’re also trying to avoid players in the last grouping, from the Vikings to the Titans. Let’s dig into Week 10!

Quick Links

Patriots at Buccaneers

Cardinals at Seahawks

Raiders at Broncos (Over/Under 42.5, DEN favored by 9.5)

Raiders (16.5 Implied Points)

The Raiders are actually coming off a solid game last week, hitting a 51.5% success rate and 79th-percentile passing efficiency.
They leaned heavily into the pass with an 11.6% pass rate over expected (PROE), peppering Brock Bowers with 13 targets in his first week back.
Bowers turned those 13 targets into 127 yards and three TDs.
Geno Smith’s 0.28 EPA per play is very good, but his 4.0-yard average target depth means all of the efficiency came through receiver yards after the catch.
And the WR position is now a huge question mark after the Raiders traded Jakobi Meyers to the Jaguars.
Even prior to the trade, the Raiders used a massive number of 2-TE sets; 45 of their 64 offensive snaps, according to PFF.
Ashton Jeanty dominated the RB work, taking every RB carry and running 29 of the 33 RB routes, leaving only six snaps for Raheem Mostert.
But 16.5 implied points is *low*, as the Broncos’ defense is 4th in efficiency and 1st in success rate allowed.
You’re starting Bowers and Jeanty and likely no one else from the offense.

Broncos (26.0 Implied Points)

The Broncos played the best defense in the league last week, and it shows in their offensive numbers.
They had a brutal 31.7% success rate, with under 36th-percentile passing and rushing efficiency.
Troy Franklin once again hit a massive 10 targets, but only turned them into 27 yards; you don’t get to play the Cowboys every week, unfortunately.
The RB split is still a mess, as JK Dobbins dominated the carries over RJ Harvey 15 to two, but only ran four routes to Harvey’s 17.
Tyler Badie also got to play on 14 snaps for unknown reasons.
Harvey scored again in this game and is eating into Dobbins’ workload, taking 41.7% of the normal early-down situation work, according to PFF.
If we could ever get Badie out of our lives, Harvey would have a clear path to fantasy relevance.
I’d expect less Badie this week as the Broncos project to be in fewer 3rd-down and long-distance situations.
It’s still a tough sell for Harvey given the snap rate, but you could do worse as the Broncos have a healthy implied point total.

Falcons at Colts (O/U 48.5, IND -6.5)

Falcons (21.0 Implied Points)

The Falcons are below-average in series success rate, but we at least have a very concentrated offense.
Last week, Drake London earned 14 targets, Bijan Robinson nine, and Kyle Pitts seven, with no other Falcon earning more than one target.
London was easily the star of the game, turning his 14 targets into 118 yards and three TDs.
In addition to Robinson’s nine targets, he took 12 of the 14 RB carries and ran 29 of the 36 RB routes.
Darnell Mooney, meanwhile, did a lot of cardio, earning one target on a team-leading 40 routes.
It’s a relatively average matchup against the Colts, who are above-average in defensive efficiency but below-average in success rate allowed.
You’re starting your typical Falcons in this one.

Colts (27.5 Implied Points)

The sportsbooks seem to agree that last week was a fluke for the Colts.
They had a very strong 49.3% success rate and nearly 99th-percentile rushing efficiency.
But their six turnovers cost them nearly 27 expected points in a game they only lost by seven.
It’s pretty impressive that Daniel Jones’ EPA per play was only -0.18, given the turnovers and the five sacks.
Playing in catch-up mode, the Colts had a lot of dropbacks, with Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs each earning double-digit targets.
My guess is this is a Jonathan Taylor game, though, as the Falcons have a much stronger pass defense than run defense, driving opponents to run on the Falcons at the 6th-highest rate versus expectation.

Bills at Dolphins (O/U 49.5, BUF -9.5)

Bills (29.5 Implied Points)

I mentioned in the intro that the Bills’ targets aren’t concentrated, but they were last week at least.
Khalil Shakir earned eight targets, Dalton Kincaid six, and no other player earned more than two.
Josh Allen was extremely efficient, hitting 0.43 EPA per play with an elite 18.4% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE).
But nearly all of his passing value was through YAC, given his very low 5.1-yard average target depth.
The Kincaid stuff is odd, as he again only played on 23 of the team’s 66 snaps, and ran only 16 of the team’s 30 routes.
We’re relying on his targets per route run (TPRR) to be insanely high in order to play him in fantasy, but they were last week at 37.5%.
James Cook dominated the rushing work, taking 27 of the 29 RB carries, but Ty Johnson did eat into the routes with 10.
The risk of a dud with Kincaid is high in my opinion if he’s only getting to run 16 routes, especially this week, as the Bills shouldn’t really need him to beat the Dolphins.
But I don’t know if there’s much else to do other than play Allen, Kincaid, Shakir, and Cook, given the nearly 30 implied points.

Dolphins (20.0 Implied Points)

Things are crumbling in Miami, and they only hit a 36.7% success rate last week with 25th-percentile passing and 6th-percentile rushing efficiency.
The fumbles really killed them, but it’s not like Tua Tagovailoa had a good game with 0.02 EPA per play and -3% CPOE.
De'Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle dominated the targets with nine or more each.
Greg Dulcich popped up with five targets, but he isn’t someone I’m chasing because he only ran 20 of the team’s 43 routes.
If the Dolphins can keep it close, it’s a great matchup on the ground for Achane, as the Dolphins have the 5th-highest explosive run rate and the Bills give up explosive runs at the 2nd-highest rate in the league.
You’re starting Achane and Waddle, and no one else on this offense.

Ravens at Vikings (O/U 48.5, BAL -4.5)

Ravens (26.5 Implied Points)

The Ravens didn’t really need Lamar Jackson last week, but he did hit 0.41 EPA per play and 18.1% CPOE on limited volume in his return.
They ultimately only had 23 targets compared to 29 carries.
Zay Flowers led the way with five targets, both Rashod Bateman and Isaiah Likely earned four, and no one else exceeded three.
Yes, that means Mark Andrews scored two TDs on only three targets.
Derrick Henry was in his typical role, dominating the RB carries with 19 of the team’s 24 total, but only running 11 of 27 routes.
It remains difficult to trust either Andrews or Likely in lineups, given the route limitations.
Ideally, I’m only starting Jackson, Henry, and Flowers.

Vikings (22.0 Implied Points)

It was ultimately a bad week for JJ McCarthy, but still much better than the disastrous efficiency we saw in his first two outings.
He ended the day with -0.14 EPA per play and -0.1% CPOE.
The Vikings ultimately only needed 23 targets in a win against the Lions, with Justin Jefferson earning nine and no one else exceeding four.
It was clear in the 1st half that Aaron Jones was the RB you wanted in Minnesota moving forward.
Jones played 24 snaps compared to Jordan Mason’s eight in the first two quarters.
But we can’t have nice things, so Jones hurt his shoulder early in the 3rd quarter and didn’t return.
Initial reports suggest that it isn’t too serious, but I don’t know whether he’ll play this week at the time I’m writing.
I’m personally starting Jones and benching Mason if Jones plays, but Mason is viable if Jones sits.

Patriots at Buccaneers (O/U 48.5, TB -2.5)

Patriots (23.0 Implied Points)

Last week was an uncharacteristically inefficient performance for Drake Maye, as he only hit 0.02 EPA per play.
The multiple turnovers and six sacks brought down what was otherwise a strong passing day.
But it’s hard to play almost any skill player on this offense, as Demario Douglas and Hunter Henry led the way with six targets each.
Kayshon Boutte suffered a hamstring injury in the 1st half and didn’t return to the game.
Depending on Rhamondre Stevenson’s health, TreVeyon Henderson would be my preferred Patriots’ skill player if I had to pick one.
He split the carries last week with Terrell Jennings but did lead Jennings in routes, 28 to four, ultimately earning five targets.
It’s a tough matchup for the ground game, though, as the Buccaneers have the 3rd-most efficient run defense in the league, with opponents opting to pass on them at a relatively high rate.

Buccaneers (25.5 Implied Points)

The Buccaneers are coming off their bye this week, but it’s still very unclear who is playing this week.
The biggest unknowns are whether Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin will suit up.
The answers to those questions have big implications for who we can start this week, but I just don’t know them at the time I’m writing.
It’s a tough matchup for the RBs, as the Patriots have the 4th-most efficient run defense in the league and allow the 3rd-lowest rate of explosive runs.
But I’m firing up Rachaad White if Irving doesn’t go, given the 25.5 implied points.

Giants at Bears (O/U 47.5, CHI -3.5)

Giants (22.0 Implied Points)

It was a really solid performance for the Giants last week in a loss to the 49ers.
They hit a 49% success rate, 66th-percentile passing efficiency, and 87th-percentile rushing efficiency.
Jaxson Dart had a quality 0.20 EPA per play with 4.4% CPOE on a relatively low 6.4-yard aDoT.
Wan'Dale Robinson earned 10 targets with the Giants playing from behind, along with seven for Darius Slayton and six for Theo Johnson, while no one else exceeded four.
Slayton did get hurt at the end of the game and didn’t return, so I’m not certain about his status going forward.
Robinson is back to being a floor play in PPR leagues after being used in a downfield role when Russell Wilson was under center.
It’s a gross committee at RB, with Devin Singletary leading the way with eight carries to Tyrone Tracy’s five, but Tracy did at least run four more routes.
This Bears defense is not very good, ranking 3rd-worst in success rate and allowing the highest rate of explosive passes in the league.
It’s just difficult figuring out who to recommend on this offense that is both healthy and can exploit the matchup.

Bears (25.5 Implied Points)

The heat would’ve been full blast on Caleb Williams if he wasn’t able to deliver a strong performance against the Bengals’ defense.
Luckily, the Bears hit a 57% success rate, with 92nd-percentile passing efficiency.
Olamide Zaccheaus led the way with eight targets, but Colston Loveland was the big story from the day, turning seven targets into a 6/118/2 line.
Cole Kmet left the game in the 2nd quarter with a concussion and didn’t return.
My assumption is Kmet sits this week, meaning Loveland is a fantastic start.
But the Bears’ RBs have an even better matchup this week against a Giants defense that is dead-last in rushing efficiency, success rate, and explosive run rate.
It’s unclear whether D'Andre Swift will be back from his groin injury at the time I’m writing.
With the needed context that this was against the Bengals, Kyle Monangai crushed last week with 176 rushing yards on 26 carries.
I think you could start Monangai regardless, depending on your situation, but he’s a great start if Swift sits.

Saints at Panthers (O/U 39.5, CAR -5.5)

Saints (17.0 Implied Points)

Tyler Shough played better than I expected in his first game last week, hitting 0.01 EPA per play with -2.9% CPOE.
To be clear, that’s not good, but it’s better than the 0th-percentile rushing efficiency they hit.
That’s not a typo, as they had a brutal 7.1% success rate on runs, losing 0.85 EPA per designed carry.
To be fair, though, that was on only nine RB carries, with Alvin Kamara only seeing six of them along with 14 routes.
Taysom Hill actually led the team in rushing with 30 yards on four carries.
Rashid Shaheed dominated the targets last week with nine, and no other Saints’ player exceeded four.
But Shaheed is now a member of the Seattle Seahawks.
Chris Olave is pretty clearly the best player remaining on this passing attack, but it’s fair to question the ceiling with only 17 implied points.

Panthers (22.5 Implied Points)

The Panthers continue to establish the damn run, hitting a prehistoric -15.4% PROE last week.
To their credit, it worked, and they ended the day with 79th-percentile rushing efficiency in a shocking win over the Packers.
They only had 18 total targets to go around last week, with Tetairoa McMillan earning six of them and no other skill player exceeding three.
It’s tough to even trust McMillan at this point, given the volume of the offense, and I’d bet the Panthers are massively run-heavy again this week.
That means Rico Dowdle is a must-start, as he dominated the RB work last week for the first time since Chuba Hubbard returned from injury.
Dowdle led Hubbard 25 to five in carries and 12 to four in routes.
McMillan is at least earning an elite target share on a low-volume offense, but Dowdle is the only Panther I’m really excited to start this week.

Jaguars at Texans (O/U 37.5, HOU -1.5)

Jaguars (18.0 Implied Points)

The Jaguars leaned heavily into the run last week in an overtime win against the Raiders.
And they hit 99th-percentile rushing efficiency thanks to Travis Etienne.
Etienne only averaged 3.8 yards per carry, but he added a huge 6.2 EPA on his designed carries, with massive 3rd and 4th down conversions along with some explosive runs.
It wasn’t a great Trevor Lawrence game, hitting exactly 0.00 EPA per play and 0.0% CPOE.
Parker Washington and Dyami Brown led the team in targets last week, but that should shake up moving forward as the Jaguars just traded for Jakobi Meyers.
It’s a brutal matchup for the receivers this week, though, as the Texans have the best pass defense in the league.
With just 18 implied points, I’m not thrilled to start any Jaguar, but Etienne would be my favorite pick.

Texans (19.5 Implied Points)

It’s hard to start anywhere else besides with CJ Stroud, who missed three quarters of the game last week with a concussion.
My assumption at the time I’m writing is that Stroud sits this week.
Davis Mills was pretty rough in Stroud’s absence, hitting -0.21 EPA per play.
Nico Collins didn’t kill you in fantasy, ultimately leading the team in targets for a 7/75/0 line.
He’s the only receiver I’d like to start if Mills is under center.
The Texans also annoyingly went back to their veteran pass catchers last week, limiting Jaylin Noel to only 11 snaps.
It’s also still an RB committee, with Woody Marks and Nick Chubb splitting the carries and Marks taking six more routes.
My preference would be to only start Collins on the Texans.

Browns at Jets (O/U 37.5, CLE -2.5)

Browns (20.0 Implied Points)

At the time I’m writing, I don’t know whether Quinshon Judkins will start in Week 10.
Judkins, David Njoku, and Harold Fannin are the only players I’m interested in starting this week, assuming Judkins is healthy.
I’m honestly surprised Njoku wasn’t dealt at the trade deadline.
It’s a good matchup for the Browns’ pass offense, as the Jets are bottom-six in efficiency and now have traded away both Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams.
But the Browns have the least-efficient offense in the entire league, so it’s fair to question the ceiling of any Browns player.

Jets (17.5 Implied Points)

The Jets seemingly traded away all of their elite players on defense.
That’s not actually terrible for fantasy football, as at least the Jets offense will be required to play in comeback mode almost every week.
But this is a brutal matchup for the Jets, as they are the most run-heavy team in the league going up against the 2nd-most efficient run defense.
Garrett Wilson is expected to practice this week, so my assumption is he suits up this week.
I’m willing to start both Wilson if he’s healthy and Breece Hall, as he’s still surprisingly a member of this team after the deadline.

Cardinals at Seahawks (O/U 45.5, SEA -6.5)

Cardinals (19.5 Implied Points)

It was a really solid Week 9 for Jacoby Brissett, hitting 0.23 EPA per play with 7.4% CPOE on an 8.0-yard aDoT.
Brissett now leads Kyler Murray in EPA per play, 0.15 to 0.10 on the season, and it sounds like Brissett is the guy moving forward here.
Trey McBride has now scored a TD in each of Brissett’s starts, but it was Marvin Harrison Jr. who led the team with 10 targets last week against a Cowboys defense that is more susceptible to outside receivers.
The RB work was split between Emari Demercado, who led Bam Knight in carries 14 to nine, though Knight did run 12 more routes.
Trey Benson is eligible to return from IR this week, and my assumption right now is that he plays.
It’s a brutal matchup for the RBs, though, as the Seahawks have the most-efficient run defense in the league.
You’re starting McBride and Harrison, and then Benson is an option despite the tough matchup if he’s healthy enough to play.

Seahawks (26.0 Implied Points)

It was another extremely-efficient passing day for Sam Darnold, with the Seahawks nearly hitting 100th-percentile passing efficiency last week.
Darnold averaged an insane 13.8 yards per pass attempt, and the Seahawks as a whole hit a massive 66% success rate.
They scored four TDs and one field goal on their five first-half drives.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues to dominate the targets, earning nine last week with no other skill player exceeding four.
Both Tory Horton and AJ Barner have been earning more work, but the Seahawks just traded for Rashid Shaheed, who should quickly step into the number two role on the offense.
Shaheed is such a fantastic fit for this downfield passing attack alongside a dominant number one in JSN.
The RB work is still split, with Kenneth Walker leading Zach Charbonnet in carries, 11 to eight, and routes 12 to nine.
Walker did at least get some goal-line carries last week, which is a change from previous weeks.
JSN is an obvious must-start every week, and I’d also fire up Shaheed despite it being his first week in the offense.
One slight concern is the strength of the Cardinals’ defense this season has been limiting explosive pass attempts to the 6th-lowest rate in the league

Lions at Commanders (O/U 49.5, DET -8.5)

Lions (29.0 Implied Points)

Last week was one of the worst Lions games in recent memory.
They only hit a 33.8% success rate and an 18th-percentile rushing efficiency.
They also lost a ton of expected points on special teams, having a kick blocked and giving up a big kick return.
Jared Goff ended the day with 0.08 EPA per play with -2.5% CPOE on a low 6.7-yard aDoT.
Amon-Ra St. Brown dominated the targets with the Lions in comeback mode, earning 12, with Sam LaPorta earning seven.
This was a small squeaky-wheel game for Jameson Williams, who at least saw six targets and had a fun 37-yard TD.
There was surprisingly little Jahmyr Gibbs last week, as he only ran 17 routes and had two fewer carries than David Montgomery.
This Commanders defense is bottom-six in efficiency and average in success rate allowed.
ARSB, LaPorta, and Gibbs are all obvious starts, with Williams and Montgomery also options given the 29 implied points.

Commanders (20.5 Implied Points)

The big story from last week was losing Jayden Daniels at the end of a blowout loss, perhaps for the rest of the season.
Deebo Samuel led the way with six targets, with the rest of the targets spread among Jaylin Lane, Zach Ertz, and John Bates.
It’s still a gross committee at RB, with Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt splitting the carries with Chris Rodriguez and then a three-way route split with both of those RBs and Jeremy McNichols.
The Lions have the fifth-most-efficient pass defense in the league.
I guess I’d be willing to start Samuel, but honestly, I’m not excited to start any Commander this week.

Rams at 49ers (O/U 49.5, LAR -3.5)

Rams (26.5 Implied Points)

Puka Nacua returned from injury last week only to pick up a new rib injury in the 3rd quarter.
He didn’t return to the game, though it doesn’t sound like a long-term injury, and my assumption as of now is that Nacua plays this week.
Davante Adams and Nacua each earned seven targets, with no other Ram exceeding four.
Kyren Williams dominated the RB work, taking 25 carries to Blake Corum’s 13 and running 18 routes to Corum’s seven.
Matthew Stafford was fantastic again last week, hitting 0.41 EPA per play on a strong 12.7% CPOE and 10.0-yard aDoT.
Nacua, Adams, and Williams are all must-starts given the Rams’ 5th-best series success rate, the concentration of the offense, and the injury-plagued 49ers’ defense.
You can’t really start a TE because the Rams are leaning into a weird four-player rotation, with none of them playing more than 60% of the offensive snaps, according to PFF.

49ers (23.0 Implied Points)

The 49ers leaned into the run last week against the worst run defense in the league.
That worked very well, hitting 93rd-percentile rush efficiency with Christian McCaffrey taking 28 of the 33 RB carries and running 25 of the team’s 29 routes.
The passing attack was similarly fantastic, though, hitting 91st-percentile pass efficiency on low volume.
Mac Jones almost averaged 10 yards per pass on his 24 attempts.
With only 22 targets, Jauan Jennings matched CMC for the team lead with five and delivered a TD for his fantasy managers.
George Kittle saw four targets, and no one else exceeded two.
My assumption at the time of writing is that both Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall will sit again this week, but my confidence in that is pretty low.
It’s a very difficult matchup against the 2nd-best pass defense and 5th-best run defense in the league.
But CMC is an obvious must-start, with Jennings and Kittle viable as well.

Steelers at Chargers (O/U 45.5, LAC -3.0)

Steelers (21.25 Implied Points)

As mentioned in the intro, the Steelers won the game last week thanks almost entirely to a massive turnover advantage.
Their offensive success rate was about seven percentage points lower than the Colts’, and they were sub-40th percentile in pass and rush efficiency.
Aaron Rodgers ended the day with one of the lowest aDoTs I’ve ever seen at 2.9 yards.
They simply cannot keep getting away with this.
I’m not especially interested in starting any receiver, as six players earned between four and six targets last week.
The Chargers also have one of the best pass defenses in the league.
Jaylen Warren is the only Steeler I really want to start, as at least he dominated the RB carries with 16 of the 20 total, even if he split routes with Kenneth Gainwell.

Chargers (24.25 Implied Points)

It was ultimately just an above-average game for the Chargers’ offense last week despite playing the Titans.
Justin Herbert ended the day with 0.18 EPA per play, with a bad pick-six really hurting his total efficiency.
Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Oronde Gadsden, and Keenan Allen all ended the day in the four-to-six target range.
The Chargers unfortunately lost Joe Alt for the season due to injury, and they made a last-second trade for Trevor Penning in an attempt to shore up their offensive line.
It was a very bad Kimani Vidal game, and he ultimately split the carries with Jaret Patterson, though he did run 24 routes to Patterson’s three.
There’s definitely some concern here that Vidal loses the massive share of the backfield he’s had recently, with that an obvious lock to happen once Omarion Hampton is healthy enough to return.
At over 24 implied points, I’m willing to start most of the Chargers’ skill players, including McConkey, Johnston, Gadsden, Allen, and Vidal.

Eagles at Packers (O/U 44.5, GB -2.5)

Eagles (21.0 Implied Points)

It’s been a rollercoaster to get here, but the Eagles are now average in pass rate over expected this season.
One of the biggest issues for this team is their poor passing success rate, relying on explosives to get to their 0.13 EPA per play number in the passing game.
They’re also 30th in plays per game because they’re dead-last in neutral pace, according to FTN.
There was some speculation that AJ Brown would be traded before the deadline, but that never made sense for a team with Super Bowl aspirations.
This is a good Packers defense, but you can fire up Jalen Hurts, Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Saquon Barkley, given the concentration of the offense.

Packers (23.5 Implied Points)

The Packers did not beat the “play down to their competition” allegations last week, losing to the Panthers.
They leaned heavily into the run and delivered only 30th-percentile rushing efficiency for their efforts.
The biggest issue for the Packers was finishing drives, as they scored only one TD on the six drives that got to or past the Panthers’ 25-yard line.
We’re also dealing with a ton of skill player injuries, with Tucker Kraft done for the year due to an ACL tear and Matthew Golden hurting his shoulder in the 3rd quarter last week.
In their absence, Romeo Doubs dominated the targets with 10, and no other player exceeded five.
Doubs and Josh Jacobs are the only clear starts at this point, with uncertain injury statuses for most of the key receivers.