Fantasy Football Week 3 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Every Game Previewed | Hoopes There It Is

Sep 23, 2026

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Welcome to another edition of Hoopes There It Is! We’re previewing every game in Week 3, highlighting advanced stats like EPA, success rate, pass rate over expected (PROE), and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) to help make the best decisions for your fantasy teams. I’ll provide a quick start/sit section at the top that stems from the longer write-ups. And if you’re interested in more, which I hope you are, you can use the Quick Links section to jump to any of the 16 games in the week. Let’s get started!

Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em

Oronde Gadsden (Start): The Chargers hit a prehistoric -18.7% PROE last week and were rewarded with 3rd percentile rushing efficiency. They have about 22 implied points and yet are still seven-point dogs to the Bills’ offensive juggernaut. After Gadsden only ran 5 routes in Week 1, the fantasy gods have seen fit to place both David Njoku and Charlie Kolar on injured reserve. That forces the Chargers’ coaching staff to actually play their young, talented TE. Maybe they’ll even pass the ball in this one.

Chris Godwin (Sit): The routes are there for Godwin, as both he and Emeka Egbuka ran 37+ of the Bucs’ 41 routes last week. But the passing attack has struggled, sitting at 30th in EPA per play and 24th in success rate. And now they face an insane Vikings’ defense that is blitzing 83% of the time, more than 50% above the median team’s blitz rate. That approach has limited opponents to the lowest passing success rate in the league. Godwin’s only seen a game-high four targets through two weeks, and I’m worried about how successful those targets will be in this one.

Adonai Mitchell (Start): This is league and option dependent, but I like Mitchell this week. He paced the team with 11 targets last week, four more than Garrett Wilson. He ran over 80% of the team’s routes. And he saw 70% of the team’s air yards in Week 2, helping him hit the highest team air yards share in the league, according to FTN. The Jets will need to keep pace with the Lions, and the Lions’ defense has been susceptible to explosive pass plays through two weeks. It’s a high ceiling, low floor play.

All Packers RBs (Sit): The Falcons’ run defense has been really good to start the year, ranking in the top seven of rushing efficiency, success rate, and explosive run rate allowed. Meanwhile, the Packers are absolutely unable to run the ball effectively, ranking in the bottom three of rushing EPA per play and success rate. Compared to all games from 2021-2025, the rushing matchup for the Packers’ offense this week is in the 3rd percentile. And now it’s a gross three-way split between Chris Brooks, Kaleb Johnson, and MarShawn Lloyd. It’s a stay-away situation.

Chuba Hubbard (Start): I am certainly not Hubbard’s biggest fan, but he’s in a good situation this week. The Panthers’ run game hasn’t been very efficient, but it’s also 16th in success rate; they’re just lacking explosive runs. Jonathon Brooks started taking more of the two-minute work and third-down snaps in Week 2 but then left the game with a groin injury that looks likely to cost him some time. That makes Chuba Hubbard a great start this week, though I still see him as a long-term sell depending on Brooks’ injury, as I think he’ll lose work as the season progresses and he won’t score a TD on 40% of his receptions all year. Hopefully just another one for us this week.

All Titans, Commanders, Browns, and (probably) Steelers (Sit): Shoot for higher ceilings than players on these teams in Week 3. Fantasy football can feel like a touchdown-only game at times; there’s just no reason to make teams with about 17 implied points a key part of your week.

Falcons at Packers (O/U 43.5, GB -6.0)

Falcons (18.75 Implied Points)

The hope is we can throw out the first two offensive performances for the Falcons.
They were inept passing again in Week 2, hitting 1st percentile efficiency relative to all games from 2021-2025.
Through two games, they are dead last in passing EPA per play, success rate, CPOE, and air yards per pass.
But I’d be willing to start Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts now that Michael Penix is back at the helm.
I would delete most of what you saw in Week 2 from your memory, but especially the B. Robinson splits.
They had essentially the same number of snaps, but the Falcons took out their offensive starters for the final 13 plays of the game.

Packers (24.75 Implied Points)

The Packers are completely unable to run the ball.
They hit 4th percentile rushing efficiency last week and have yet to score a rushing TD this season.
And it’s a tough matchup against a Falcons’ run defense that is top seven in efficiency, success rate, and explosive run rate allowed.
Fortunately, they were exactly average passing the ball last week.
Unfortunately, Jayden Reed suffered a serious neck/back injury in the first quarter last week that puts the rest of his season at risk.
In his absence, the targets consolidated even further to Christian Watson (10) and Matthew Golden (six) as both WRs ran 29+ of the team’s 32 routes.
Both Watson and Golden are top 14 in expected points at WR, but it would certainly help if Golden’s 44% catchable air yards rate increased (stat from FTN).
The targets weren’t there for Tucker Kraft in Week 2, but he’s no longer on a snap count after running 30 of the team’s 32 routes.
The Falcons’ pass defense has been susceptible to big plays through two weeks, as they’re bottom-12 in explosive pass rate, CPOE, and air yards allowed.
I’d fire up Watson, Golden, and Kraft but sit every Packers’ RB.
It’s a tough matchup; they haven’t been able to run block at all, and now it’s a gross three-way split between Chris Brooks, Kaleb Johnson, and MarShawn Lloyd.

Seahawks at Commanders (O/U 40.5, SEA -7.0)

Seahawks (23.75 Implied Points)

Even without Sam Darnold, the Seahawks did Seahawks things last week, passing at a rate 10% below expectation but delivering a massively efficient performance.
The team had 26 targets compared to 40 carries, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba earning 11 targets, Rashid Shaheed six, and no one else seeing more than two.
The Shaheed targets are encouraging, and he’s eating into Cooper Kupp’s 12-personnel snaps, as Kupp was on the field 76% of the time in 12-personnel last year but only 44% of the time in Week 2, according to PFF.
Jadarian Price had the same role as Week 1, but he left early in the 4th quarter with a shoulder injury.
In Price’s absence, Emanuel Wilson took the early-down duties in addition to the goal-line responsibility he already had.
Wilson now leads the league in expected versus actual points because he failed to punch in a TD on multiple goal-line carries.
Wilson is a spot start if Price is out in Week 3, but we’ll need a TD because the Seahawks’ RBs are essentially zeroes in the passing game.

Commanders (16.75 Implied Points)

The big news here is that Jayden Daniels dislocated the same elbow that made him miss multiple weeks last season.
So, we’ll get Marcus Mariota in this one, meaning I’d prefer to bench my Commanders’ skill players if I have other viable options.
It’s been a rough start to the year for Terry McLaurin, who earned nine targets in Week 2 but was only able to catch two of them.
That includes a would-be TD where McLaurin was wide open in the end zone on a trick play, but Antonio Williams missed him.
In the offseason, there was a lot of discussion that Jacory Croskey-Merritt would see a big uptick in receiving work because the Commanders didn’t want to tip their hand about their play calling, including which RB was on the field.
That plan seems to have already disappeared in Week 2, as JCM ran only eight routes compared to 26 routes for Rachaad White.

Chargers at Bills (O/U 50.5, BUF -7.0)

Chargers (21.75 Implied Points)

This is the first of two games this week with 50+ expected points, so we want to target it in our lineups.
The Chargers have been the biggest disappointment in the league through two weeks.
They passed the ball at a rate 18.7% below expectation last week and were rewarded with 3rd percentile rushing efficiency.
The Chargers are now dead last in rushing efficiency on the season, with Hampton dominating the inefficient carries but only running 13 of the team’s 31 routes.
In the pass game, with Ladd McConkey on a snap count, no skill player earned more than three targets, and no one ran more than 23 routes.
On plays with Ladd McConkey off the field this season, the Chargers have an EPA per play of -0.41; it’s +0.12 when McConkey's on the field, according to PFF.
Monitor reports throughout the week on McConkey’s snaps, but I’d fire him up against a susceptible Bills’ pass defense.
I’d also be willing to start Oronde Gadsden as both David Njoku and Charlie Kolar landed on IR after Week 2.
Gadsden only ran five routes in Week 1, but the Chargers will have no choice but to play their young and talented TE in Week 3.

Bills (28.75 Implied Points)

The Bills’ offense has been a force through two weeks, ranking top-five in passing EPA per play, passing success rate, explosive pass rate, rushing EPA per play, and explosive run rate.
And they’re doing it by passing the ball down the field, ranking top three in PROE and air yards per pass.
Dalton Kincaid is in must-start territory now as he ran 26 of the team’s 38 routes last week and paced the team with eight targets.
That’s especially true if DJ Moore sits with a shoulder injury he suffered after only nine routes last week.
And James Cook continues to do James Cook things, as he took every RB carry last week and ran 22 routes.
In deeper leagues, Khalil Shakir and even, *gulp*, Keon Coleman are options as they each earned six targets last week, and the Bills have the second-highest implied point total this week.

Bengals at Steelers (O/U 42.5, CIN -3.5)

Bengals (23.0 Implied Points)

The Bengals’ passing attack was bad last week, managing 39th percentile efficiency despite a downright terrible 27.8% success rate.
They won’t have to play the Texans’ defense every week, but they now have the Steelers’ number one ranked passing defense on tap.
However, I think we can all agree those numbers are a bit juiced because the Steelers got to play the Cooper Rush Falcons in Week 1.
And they’ve been susceptible to explosive plays despite their efficiency.
You’re starting both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, who paced the team with eight targets each last week.
And you’re also starting Chase Brown, who took 20 of the 22 RB carries last week, even if he did split the routes with Samaje Perine.

Steelers (19.5 Implied Points)

The Steelers’ PROE came back down to earth in Week 2, landing at -1.2%.
And that makes sense because the passing attack has been awful through two games, hitting only a 5th percentile performance in Week 2.
DK Metcalf has by far the largest discrepancy between his actual and expected fantasy points at WR.
Metcalf has seven targets this season with 20+ air yards; none of them have scored us fantasy points.
After getting six of those targets in Week 1, he only saw one of them in Week 2, and he’s yet to have a red-zone target this year.
My only preferred start on the Steelers is Jaylen Warren if Rico Dowdle can’t go with a toe injury.
Dowdle only managed 18 snaps in Week 2, and Warren took basically every snap once Dowdle exited.
The Bengals’ defense has been much improved through two games, and they only allowed one successful run to the Texans last week, but the volume alone makes Warren a start if Dowdle sits.

Panthers at Browns (O/U 42.5, CAR -2.5)

Panthers (22.5 Implied Points)

The betting markets continue to assume that this Panthers’ start is fraudulent.
I mentioned in last week’s edition that the 2.5-point spread versus the Falcons must have assumed that Penix would start, but the line never moved as it became clear that Cooper Rush would be the QB.
And the Panthers went out and won by 31 points.
They’re now 6th in PROE, 6th in passing EPA per play, and 1st in explosive pass rate.
And sure, the underlying success rate is worse, so we should expect some regression, but even 16th there is way better than we expected coming into the season.
What’s great for fantasy is the targets are consolidated on only two players, with Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Cooker each earning nine; they remain great starts.
The run game hasn’t been as efficient, but it’s also 16th in success rate; they’re just lacking explosive runs.
Jonathon Brooks started taking more of the two-minute work and third-down snaps in Week 2 but then left the game with a groin injury that looks likely to cost him some time.
That makes Chuba Hubbard a great start this week, but I still see him as a long-term sell depending on Brooks’ injury, as I think he’ll lose work as the season progresses and he won’t score a TD on 40% of his receptions all year.

Browns (20.0 Implied Points)

Out of nowhere, the Browns hit 83rd percentile passing efficiency last week.
My assumption is this is more a Buccaneers’ pass defense stat than a Browns’ offense stat.
The targets were spread around to four players, with Denzel Boston, KC Concepcion, Harold Fannin, and Quinshon Judkins each earning 5+ targets.
Boston has looked fantastic so far this season, and now has a TD in each of his first two games as a pro.
I’m sticking by my “don’t start any Browns” stance, but Boston is making that look silly so far.
The five targets for Judkins were really encouraging, but he couldn’t do much with them and has done absolutely nothing on the ground given the state of this offensive line.

Chiefs at Dolphins (O/U 46.5, KC -11.5)

Chiefs (29.0 Implied Points)

The Chiefs’ passing attack looked like last season in Week 2.
They were pass-heavy and very efficient despite a concerningly low air yards per attempt.
The concern for Rashee Rice managers is that Kenneth Walker is seemingly stealing his short-area targets.
Walker tied for 2nd on the team with seven targets and is first among all flex players in expected fantasy points per game.
Rice is seeing fewer slot targets, a higher aDoT, and a much lower target-per-route run rate.
Rice has historically been a much more efficient receiver against zone coverage rather than man coverage.
So far, he’s played two defenses that are top-seven in defensive passing attempts using man coverage, according to SIS.
But the Dolphins are 18th in that stat so far in 2026, meaning we could see some more snaps against zone coverage for Rice in this one.

Dolphins (17.5 Implied Points)

The Dolphins got crushed last week, and the betting markets are anticipating that to happen again in Week 3.
The offense has mostly been normal levels of bad rather than outlier-level bad like we thought coming into the season.
They were actually above average in passing efficiency last week but passed at a rate 16.7% below expectation.
De’Von Achane and Malik Washington each had 5+ of the team’s 23 targets, while no one else saw more than three.
Achane’s usage has been great, taking 20 of the team’s 25 RB carries and running 20 of the team’s 28 routes.
Achane is averaging 15.7 expected fantasy points per game but has only delivered 9.7, as he hasn’t really had any explosives and still has no TDs.
If you can buy very low in your league, I would consider it, but the offensive concerns don’t seem to be going away with Malik Willis facing the 3rd-highest pressure rate and taking sacks at the 3rd-highest rate per pressure in the league.

Jets at Lions (O/U 48.5, DET -6.5)

Jets (21.0 Implied Points)

The Jets’ passing attack has been average (complimentary) so far this season, hitting 59th percentile efficiency last week in a narrow loss to the Packers.
Air yards king, Adonai Mitchell, paced the team with 11 targets last week, followed by seven for Garrett Wilson, and six for Isaiah Williams.
All three of those WRs ran 40+ of the team’s 49 routes, while WR4 Arian Smith only ran one route in the game.
The TE rotation is much grosser as both Mason Taylor and Kenyon Sadiq ran about 22 routes; neither can be started.
Going back to Mitchell, he saw 70% of the team’s air yards in Week 2 and has the highest team air yards share in the league, according to FTN.
The floor is very low, but the ceiling is very high for Mitchell against a susceptible Lions’ pass defense this week.
Breece Hall dominated the RB work, leading Braelon Allen in snaps 48 to 23, routes 23 to 12, targets five to one, and carries 16 to five.
But Allen just happened to be the back that scored a TD last week.

Lions (27.5 Implied Points)

There’s not that much to say about the Lions on a weekly basis.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is averaging about three more expected fantasy points per game than any other WR in the league.
Jahmyr Gibbs’ workload continues to be insane, losing only 1 of the RB carries last week and running 30 routes.
Sam LaPorta is no longer on a snap count after running 40 of the team’s 44 routes.
But that has left Jameson Williams on the outside looking in, earning only three targets in Week 2 after nine in Week 1.
This Jets’ pass defense has been great so far this season, so Williams is an option-dependent sit until we see his role expand.
For what it’s worth, his expected fantasy points are about four points per game higher than his actual performance to date.

Patriots at Jaguars (O/U 45.5, JAX -3.0)

Patriots (21.25 Implied Points)

The Patriots were somehow +5.7% PROE in a game with only 19 team targets; that can happen when a touchdown in the first quarter was a lead the Steelers could never overcome.
The RB split was very interesting in Week 2 as TreVeyon Henderson led Rhamondre Stevenson in snaps 33 to 20, routes 12 to 11, and carries 16 to six, though Henderson didn’t earn a target.
That didn’t seem to be the intention going into the game, as Stevenson took all four snaps on the first drive but then lost a fumble.
After that play, Henderson took 21 of the next 25 snaps, according to PFF.
And then after that, the split was about even again before Corey Kiner came in for clean-up duty.
The splits in the backfield have flipped and then flopped and then flipped again over the last two seasons.
My guess is that we’ll see more Henderson in Week 3 because of the explosive element he provides to a run game that sorely needs it.
But the only thing I’m confident about is that Stevenson will remain the third-down back as he did in Week 2, even while being punished for the fumbles.

Jaguars (24.25 Implied Points)

It was a rough outing for the Jaguars’ offense in Week 2 after an immaculate performance in Week 1.
They passed at a rate 3.3% below expectation and finished with a 26th percentile performance.
Parker Washington dominated the targets, earning 12 of the team’s 27, while Brian Thomas Jr. managed seven despite not playing in 12 personnel sets.
Washington is the only Jaguars receiver that I’m confidently starting.
Bhayshul Tuten is starting to separate himself from Chris Rodriguez.
He led CRod in snaps 30 to 13, routes 12 to five, targets two to zero, and carries 13 to six.
Crucially, Tuten’s snap rate in normal, early-down situations jumped to about 68% in Week 2, according to PFF.
Tuten was much more efficient than CRod on his carries and played on half of the goal-line snaps after some offseason discussion that CRod would have that role.

Texans at Colts (O/U 43.5, HOU -2.5)

Texans (23.0 Implied Points)

The Texans set a new record in Week 2 for the lowest rushing efficiency rate in the last five years.
They only had one successful run on 15 carries for a brutal 6.7% rushing success rate.
It seems like Nico Collins is set to miss Week 3.
If that’s the case, then Dalton Schultz is the only Texan I’m confidently starting.
He earned 13 of the team’s 46 targets last week and scammed his way to 20 half PPR points.
David Montgomery and Woody Marks split the snaps, routes, and carries last week, while Marks actually earned five targets to Montgomery’s two.
The Texans are rotating their backs by drive except for the first drive of each half.
It’s the first crying baby vs. crying baby matchup of the season, with the awful Texans’ rushing attack going against a similarly awful Colts run defense (to be fair to them, they’ve played Derrick Henry and Kenneth Walker).

Colts (20.5 Implied Points)

The Colts offense had a really nice day despite the narrow loss to the Chiefs.
They finished with 71st percentile passing efficiency and 91st percentile rushing and are now up to 2nd in the league in rushing EPA per play.
Jonathan Taylor is top five among all flex players in both expected and actual points per game.
He took 24 of the team’s 26 RB carries and ran 25 of the team’s 33 routes.
Josh Downs paced the team in targets with nine and ran 30 of the team’s 33 routes.
With Alec Pierce leaving the game after only seven routes due to a heel injury, Downs continues to have the opportunity to earn targets on the outside, though he wasn’t successful at it in Week 2.
Taylor, Downs, and Tyler Warren, who earned seven targets last week, are all excellent starts even with the quality of the Texans’ defense.

Titans at Giants (O/U 40.5, NYG -3.0)

Titans (18.75 Implied Points)

The Titans went massively run-heavy against the Eagles, hitting nearly -20% PROE.
And they almost won the game because of it, hitting 73rd percentile rushing efficiency with two Cam Ward rushing TDs and both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears averaging over 4.5 yards per carry.
It looks like Pollard dominated the work, but that hides the fact that Spears missed a lot of the 3rd quarter with an injury that he returned from.
There were only 17 team targets, and Carnell Tate dominated them, but only for five total and 27 scoreless yards.
I’d prefer not to start any Titans in my fantasy lineup.

Giants (21.75 Implied Points)

Week 2 was brutal for the Giants as they lost Jaxson Dart after only seven snaps, potentially for the season.
Jameis Winston struggled in his stead, finishing with 4th percentile passing efficiency.
Malik Nabers was also in and out of the game with a shoulder injury but did ultimately run 28 of the team’s 34 routes.
Of the 31 team targets, Isaiah Likely earned nine and Malachi Fields earned six.
The TE rotation is annoying for Likely as he gets subbed out a lot in both 12 personnel and early-down 11 personnel snaps.
But the targets for Likely are hard to ignore, making both him and Nabers the only Giants I’m interested in playing.
It’s mostly a two-man backfield between Cam Skattebo and Devin Singletary, but we also got eight Najee Harris snaps, which I assume will increase instead of decrease.

Cardinals at 49ers (O/U 47.5, SF -8.5)

Cardinals (19.5 Implied Points)

After a strong Week 1, the Cardinals came back down to earth in Week 2.
They finished with 17th percentile passing and 8th percentile rushing efficiency against the Seahawks’ elite defense.
Trey McBride dominated the 25 team targets, earning 10, while Michael Wilson earned six, and no one else exceeded three, including Marvin Harrison Jr.
Wilson took seven of the eight snaps in 1-WR sets in Week 2, something Harrison had historically taken a larger share.
While Tyler Allgeier dominated the snaps and routes, Jeremiyah Love earned one more target and four more carries, but it’s very annoying that Love only saw 20 snaps as Allgeier played the clear passing situations in a blowout loss.
McBride is the only Cardinal I’m excited to start this week.

49ers (28.0 Implied Points)

Besides their low air yards per pass and a poor explosive run rate, the 49ers’ offense is cooking.
Brock Purdy just set a new five-year high in passing efficiency in a game.
It was only on 21 team targets, and they were really spread around, with Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey each earning four.
Both Mike Evans and Demarcus Robinson didn’t finish Week 2, meaning Samuel, Kittle, and CMC are all excellent starts if those two can’t go in Week 3.
Kittle’s route rate jumped from about 47% in Week 1 to 60% last week, though his snap rate was about the same.
CMC’s snap rate jumped a ton in the first half of Week 2 before the game was out of hand.
But for the entire game, CMC led Kaelon Black in snaps 27 to 17, routes 16 to seven, targets four to zero, and carries 10 to seven.
We’ll need the Cardinals’ offense to provide some pushback for Kittle and CMC to really hit a ceiling this week.

Vikings at Buccaneers (O/U 42.5, MIN -1.5)

Vikings (22.0 Implied Points)

The Vikings’ offense was below-average in Week 2, but good enough to eek out a win over the Bears.
They went run-heavy and so only had 19 team targets.
Justin Jefferson earned six of them, Jordan Addison five, and TJ Hockenson four, with no one else above one.
Aaron Jones had a bellcow role on the ground, taking 42 of the team’s 52 snaps and 23 of the 25 RB carries.
This Buccaneers defense allowed the Bengals to put up 33 points without any Ja’Marr Chase involvement and just let up 23 to the Browns.
You’re starting Jefferson every week, and Jones’ role is insane right now, but I’d also consider Addison and Hockenson depending on your other options, with the hope this offense can take off a bit with Kyler Murray under center.

Buccaneers (20.5 Implied Points)

I’m concerned about the Buccaneers’ passing attack in this one.
They’ve struggled so far this season, landing 30th in EPA per play and 24th in success rate.
And this Vikings’ defense is blitzing 83% of the time, compared to the median team’s 31% rate, limiting opponents to the lowest passing success rate in the league.
The routes are there for both Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin, as each ran 37+ of the team’s 41 routes last week.
And Egbuka saved an otherwise ghastly day with a short TD, but Godwin I’d prefer to sit.
Bucky Irving continues to dominate the RB work, leading Kenny Gainwell in snaps 51 to 23, routes 24 to 13, and carries 17 to two.
Gainwell did take a goal-line snap, but he just happened to be on the field the previous play, according to PFF.
Irving is the only Buc I’m excited to play given his usage and the tough matchup.

Ravens at Cowboys (O/U 52.5, BAL -3.0)

Ravens (27.75 Implied Points)

This is the other game with a 50+ combined point total on the week.
Without Zay Flowers, the Ravens decided to…pass the ball about 5% more than expected?
That’s not what I expected, but it did mean a healthy nine targets for Rashod Bateman and seven for Mark Andrews.
My assumption is that Flowers returns for this game, meaning Bateman can return to waivers.
Derrick Henry had his typical role, losing routes to Justice Hill but dominating the carries 16 to two.
You’re starting Lamar Jackson, Henry, and Flowers, with Andrews a fine option at TE against a bottom-three defense in pass efficiency and success rate allowed.

Cowboys (24.75 Implied Points)

The Cowboys went massively pass-heavy in Week 2, perhaps the only team still willing to do this in the league.
And they were rewarded with 92nd percentile efficiency.
What’s weird about this Cowboys offense is they’re generating almost no explosives, as they’re 26th in explosive pass rate and haven’t hit even one explosive run this season.
CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens dominated the targets with nine and eight, respectively, while Ryan Flournoy saw six and Jake Ferguson four.
Ferguson had a big fantasy day, though, earning two TDs on just those four targets, which is obviously unsustainable.
Ferguson also only ran 23 of the team’s 36 routes, as Bryce Spann-Ford and Luke Schoonmaker combined for 12 routes, particularly in 12 personnel sets.
Javonte Williams earned four targets as well and took 12 of the 15 RB carries.
The problem is Williams has been very inefficient on his touches, and so games without a TD are going to look ugly in our box scores.
I’d still fire up Lamb, Pickens, and Williams in this one.

Raiders at Saints (O/U 44.5, NO -3.0)

Raiders (20.75 Implied Points)

We got a dose of the 2025 Raiders (derogatory) with their 4th percentile rushing performance in Week 2.
But Ashton Jeanty has one of the best roles in all of football, taking 21 of the 24 RB carries and running 25 of the team’s 32 routes.
That includes all four snaps in goal line situations, according to PFF, after some offseason concern that Mike Washington could take those.
And Jeanty’s a great start this week against a Saints’ run defense that is bottom-six in rushing efficiency, success rate, and explosive run rate allowed.
In the passing game, with Brock Bowers sidelined, Jeanty also tied Tre Tucker for the team lead in targets with seven.
Cody White, who I’m told is a real NFL WR, had a big fantasy day for no one, earning two TDs on only seven routes, and he’s already reverted back to the Raiders’ practice squad.
My assumption is that Bowers returns in this one, making him and Jeanty must-starts.

Saints (23.75 Implied Points)

The Saints’ offense hit 72nd percentile passing and 60th percentile rushing in a surprise win over the Ravens in Week 2.
Their play volume came down from their unsustainable number in Week 1, but they’re still leading the league through two weeks.
Chris Olave paced the team with 10 targets, followed by seven for Devaughn Vele, six for Alvin Kamara, and four for Juwan Johnson.
Olave and Vele are the only confident starts on the team at the moment.
Johnson is in an annoying snap split with Noah Fant, limiting him to a 59% route rate, which is down from the mid-to-high 70s both last year and in Week 1, according to PFF.
And then Travis Etienne is in a similar situation.
Etienne led Kamara in snaps, 37 to 20, and routes, 13 to eight, but Kamara earned four more targets and even had one more carry.
On top of that, create-a-player CJ Donaldson also had 20 snaps and ran seven routes.
Kamara won’t touch the ball on 75% of his snaps going forward, and Etienne maintained the goal-line and short-yardage roles, but this is way more annoying than Etienne’s contract suggested it would be.

Rams at Broncos (O/U 45.5, LAR -2.5)

Rams (24.0 Implied Points)

The Rams’ passing attack is back up to average for the year, but that hides their brutal Australia game in Week 1 followed by a 93rd percentile performance in Week 2.
With Puka Nacua out, it was a two-man show with Davante Adams and Terrance Ferguson each earning 9+ targets and no other Ram seeing more than two.
If Nacua is out again this week, then Ferguson is a great start at TE and Adams is a must-start at WR.
Ferguson played more during 11 personnel on early downs in Week 2 than he did all of last season combined, according to PFF.
The RB rotation was business as usual, with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum rotating by drive and Williams handling the two-minute drill, according to PFF.

Broncos (21.5 Implied Points)

It was the Jaylen Waddle show last week for the Broncos, as he earned 10 of the team’s 28 targets, while no one else exceeded four.
Waddle’s the only member of this passing game that I’m excited to play.
And then the RB position is very up the air.
RJ Harvey missed last week with an injury, and then JK Dobbins suffered a hamstring injury at the end of the 3rd quarter and didn’t return to the game.
That makes Jonah Coleman a very interesting add on waivers, which likely have run by the time you’re reading this.
From what I’ve seen, it sounds like Dobbins will play in Week 3, but if both Dobbins and Harvey are out, I’d definitely plug Coleman into my lineup.

Eagles at Bears (O/U 41.5, PHI -4.5)

Eagles (23.0 Implied Points)

The Eagles have been downright awful on 1st down this season.
They have the largest difference in early down and late-down success rate to start a season since 2022, according to Sumer Sports.
They’ve been bailed out so far by Jalen Hurts explosives, with the Eagles 5th in explosive pass rate and 4th in CPOE.
And I don’t love that the Eagles are only 4.5-point favorites over a team that might start Case Keenum.
Hurts and DeVonta Smith are the only Eagles’ players I’m confidently starting this week, as Smith earned a massive 13 of the team’s 33 targets in Week 2.
Dontayvion Wicks managed six targets, but he lost playing time to Darius Cooper in this one, leading Wicks to run only 28 of the team’s 43 routes.
Saquon Barkley played only 12 snaps due to a stinger, and I don’t know his status at the time I’m writing.
Tank Bigsby would be my preferred play over Will Shipley if Barkley misses this week.

Bears (18.5 Implied Points)

The Bears seemingly dodged a bullet after Caleb Williams went down with a non-contact injury last week.
I don’t know whether he’ll play this week at the time I’m writing, but the injury doesn’t sound long-term in nature.
If he doesn’t go, it’ll likely be Case Keenum at the helm as Tyson Bagent is in the concussion protocol.
Last week, Luther Burden paced the team with seven targets but did very little with them.
D’Andre Swift and Kalif Raymond were next in line with five each, followed by four for Rome Odunze, three for Sam Roush, and only two for Colston Loveland.
Can we at least give the Roush targets to Loveland? My goodness.
The routes were dinged a bit for Loveland, as he ran 29 of the team’s 42 routes because he stayed in to pass-block a career-high six times, according to PFF.
And my assumption is that’s because the Vikings’ defense blitzed the Bears at an insane 77.5% rate, pressuring the Bears on half of their dropbacks.
My working assumption remains that Loveland will turn around for fantasy if Williams is at QB, but I gotta say, I’m feeling less confident about that after two very poor weeks.
I’m likely still starting D’Andre Swift and no one else on the Bears if it’s Keenum at QB.
Swift’s role has been great this year, doubling Kyle Monangai’s snaps last week, running 10 more routes, earning three more targets, and seeing six more carries.