Hoopes There It Is: Week 5 Game Preview

Oct 01, 2025

Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Four games through the season feels like a good time to check in on expected fantasy points. To get the expected fantasy points on a play, I looked at every target or carry since 2010. For targets, I looked at both the field position at the snap and the air yards on the throw. And for carries, I just looked at the field position of the attempt. From there, I modeled out the typical fantasy points you should expect in any scenario.

You start seeing a big jump in expected fantasy points for attempts within the opponent’s 10-yard line. That jump starts around the 18-yard line for targets. And deeper air yard targets are more valuable in a vacuum, but the model also recognizes that targets are especially valuable when the air yards are deep enough to take you into or near the endzone.

But enough of that, let’s dig into the interesting part: buy-low and sell-high candidates. The most obvious buy candidates from this analysis are the players that *should* be scoring more points based on both how much volume they’re getting and the specific characteristics of that volume (field position and target depth). And the opposite for sell candidates. Below are the top 10 RBs and WRs that have the biggest gap between their expected points and their actual points per game.

Now, some of these buy players are not scoring their expected number of fantasy points because they either play on a terrible offense (Chris Olave) or are just not very good (Xavier Legette). So, it’s our job to determine whether a player is not scoring to their expectation because of something that can change, like TD rate, or because of a skill or environment issue that is unlikely to change. And I’ll talk through a lot of these guys in each game preview.

49ers at Rams (Over/Under 47.5, LAR favored by 5.5 points)

49ers (21.0 Implied Points)

• To be clear, no one is selling low on Christian McCaffrey.
• But he still pops up as the number one buy candidate because he’s scoring about five fewer half-PPR points per game than expected from his usage.
• He’s completely lapping the field in expected points, beating the next closest RB and WR by about seven and eight points, respectively.
• The usage is there. If the efficiency comes with it, then CMC will go nuclear in fantasy lineups, essentially providing a WR1 and an RB2 in the same roster spot.
• CMC had nine targets last week, four more than any other 49ers skill player, as both Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall missed decent chunks of the game with injuries.
• And it’s a very difficult matchup for this passing attack, facing off against the 2nd most efficient pass defense in the league.
• As of writing this, it seems like Jennings is more likely to play than Pearsall, but either one is a must-start despite the matchup if they’re the only target-dominant WR on the team.

Rams (26.5 Implied Points)

• Puka Nacua is absolutely insane.
• He and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are in their own stratosphere this season in terms of yards per route run, as they’re about 1.5 yards above any other WR with 10+ targets.
• He’s technically out-performing his expected points at the 2nd-highest clip among WRs, but he’s an elite talent on an extremely concentrated offense that likely will always beat his expectation.
• Last week was the 4th time that Kyren Williams dropped below a 70% snap rate in the last three seasons, according to PFF.
• And Williams’ fumble plus a failed Matthew Stafford sneak on 4th down led to a 7th-percentile rush efficiency day, compared to 72nd-percentile passing.
• The 49ers’ defense is average across the board but 4th-best at limiting explosive passes.
• And that’s key because this Rams offense has the 2nd-highest explosive pass rate in the league.
• Regardless, Nacua, Davante Adams, and Williams are all must-starts.

Vikings at Browns (O/U 36.5, MIN -4.5)

Vikings (20.5 Implied Points)

• Carson Wentz turned back into a pumpkin last week, with in-game offensive line injuries making the 2nd-half of the game a rough watch.
• Wentz ended the day with six sacks and two interceptions.
• But he made it a point to target his best players when he was able to get a pass off, with Justin Jefferson earning 11 targets along with eight to Jordan Addison.
• Addison’s fantasy day was looking bleak until he hit an 81-yard reception near the end of the game.
• And T.J. Hockenson also earned five targets, playing on his highest share of offensive snaps since 2023, according to PFF.
• But my goodness, do you not want to be playing the Browns defense with offensive line problems?
• Myles Garrett may set the sack record in this one.

Browns (16.0 Implied Points)

• The most notable thing from last week was that Cedric Tillman suffered a hamstring injury that is likely to sideline him for weeks.
• Isaiah Bond and Jamari Thrash took his snaps, with Bond the more likely fantasy contributor as he tied for 2nd in targets last week.
• The Vikings have the best passing defense in the league, so I’m only interested in starting Bond in those very common leagues that require you to start a Browns’ WR.
• Quinshon Judkins dominated the RB carries, but he only ran 14 of the 31 RB routes.
• Judkins looks like a very efficient runner, but he lacks a ceiling path with limited receiving work and goal-line opportunities on one of the worst offenses in the league.
• Harold Fannin, a personal favorite of mine, continues to play more and hit a new career-high in snap rate last week, according to PFF.
• But at 16 implied points, I’m not especially interested in starting any Browns player.

Raiders at Colts (O/U 47.5, IND -6.5)

Raiders (20.5 Implied Points)

• Ashton Jeanty bounced back in a big way, not just in terms of his performance but also in his playing time.
• He dominated both the carries and the routes, with 21 of 25 RB rushing attempts and 18 of the 22 routes.
• And the Raiders leaned heavily into the run for the 2nd-straight week, hitting -13.8% PROE against the Bears.
• The passing attack is very concentrated, with Jakobi Meyers earning seven targets, Brock Bowers six, and no other player with more than two.
• We saw a lot of Ian Thomas on the field at TE last week, but Bowers still played on 40 of 52 snaps and, more importantly, ran 20 of the 23 routes.
• The Raiders have the most volatile offense in the league, as they’re 28th in success rate but top-five in both passing and rushing explosive plays.
• Basically, if the explosive plays are hitting, then we’ll see points, but the Raiders are struggling to create sustained drives.
• Luckily, the Colts’ defense is bottom-six in defensive success rate allowed, creating an opportunity for the Raiders to get better on that front.

Colts (27.0 Implied Points)

• The Colts passing attack had a bit of a wake-up call against a very good Rams defense last week.
• They only hit 21st-percentile passing efficiency, partially due to Daniel Jones' interceptions.
• But Adonai Mitchell also had two critical errors for the team, fumbling the ball out of the back of the endzone for a would-be touchdown and then holding on another would-be touchdown via a Jonathan Taylor 53-yard run.
• That’s frustrating because I think Mitchell is a much better talent than Alec Pierce, but I can’t imagine the coaching staff is keen on playing Mitchell once Pierce is healthy.
• I keep not wanting to start Michael Pittman, and then he continues to put up fantastic numbers, dominating the targets last week with 10.
• And the Colts should want to pass in this one, as the Raiders have a bottom-eight pass defense but the 2nd-best rushing defense in the league.

Giants at Saints (O/U 40.5, NO -1.5)

Giants (19.5 Implied Points)

• Brutal luck for Jaxson Dart, losing his superstar WR Malik Nabers only 25 snaps into the first game of his career.
• That Nabers' injury makes Wan’Dale Robinson interesting in full-PPR leagues as a player who earns volume close to the line of scrimmage and displayed some success on routes down the field with Russell Wilson.
• Robinson started playing in 2-WR sets after the Nabers injury, which would be fantastic for his fantasy outlook, ultimately running a route on every Dart dropback.
• Cam Skattebo dominated the RB work with Tyrone Tracy out, taking 25 of the 32 carries and running 20 of the 27 routes.
• Dart wasn’t bad in his first start, hitting 0.03 EPA per play, though most of his passing value was through yards after the catch rather than air yards.
• It’s a good matchup for the Giants’ passing attack this week as well, with the Saints’ defense ranked bottom-six in passing efficiency, success rate, and explosive passes allowed.

Saints (21.0 Implied Points)

• No Saints player exceeded five targets last week.
• And that’s strange given the volume we’ve seen so far this year for players like Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson.
• The Saints opted to go more run-heavy than usual against the Bills, which made sense given that was the weakness of the Bills’ defense.
• But that limited the total number of targets for the Saints to 24, which was a massive 14 below their season average and 10 lower than in any other game.
• Unfortunately, we could see that again this week, as the Giants have the worst rushing defense in the league and the Saints are actually expected to win this game.
• This Giants pass rush also just gave Justin Herbert absolute fits last week.
• My guess is the Saints both lean into the run and continue to expand Kendre Miller’s usage, as he’s looked like the better runner this year compared to Alvin Kamara.

Texans at Ravens (O/U 40.5, HOU -2.5)

Texans (21.5 Implied Points)

• I hope you took my advice last week and signed Woody Marks, because it looks like his backfield takeover is upon us.
• Marks had four more rushing attempts and ran seven more routes than Nick Chubb last week.
• And he earned five targets on his 16 routes (31.3% targets per route run), delivering 50 receiving yards and a touchdown to go along with 69 rushing yards and another score.
• We also received an update on the Joe Mixon situation that suggested we might not see Mixon for the entire 2025 season.
• The Texans now get to play an incredibly injured Ravens defense that could be missing about eight key players this week.
• Because of those injuries, the Ravens have given up 86th-percentile or better EPA per play performances in three of four games this season.
• And that is on the heels of a game where C.J. Stroud hit 0.31 EPA per play, his best game since 2023.
• Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, and Marks are all strong starts this week.

Ravens (19.0 Implied Points)

• The only thing that really matters this week is whether Lamar Jackson plays, which seems very unlikely at the time of writing.
• Mark Andrews tied for the team lead with eight targets last week, which is great to see.
• But it feels unsustainable, as he immediately split snaps and routes with Isaiah Likely in his first game back from injury last week.
• Andrews would be someone I’m trying to sell on the back of some high-target performances.
• Derrick Henry only received eight carries last week and ran only seven routes in a blowout loss.
• That simply won’t continue moving forward once Jackson is playing QB, because the Ravens won’t be on the receiving end of blowout losses.
• I’m again really interested in the Ravens’ extremely high sack rate, especially against an elite Texans’ pass rush.

Broncos at Eagles (O/U 43.5, PHI -4.5)

Broncos (19.5 Implied Points)

• The context needed for the Broncos’ game against the Bengals is that they had a massive 81 offensive snaps, with the Bengals’ offense unable to move the ball at all.
• That led to four players having six or more targets, including Troy Franklin, Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims, and Evan Engram.
• The RB work was split right down the middle between J.K. Dobbins and R.J. Harvey, though Harvey earned a target on a third of his routes and scored two touchdowns in goal-line situations.
• That’s a massive change compared to last week, but this backfield rotation has changed every single week this season, meaning we can’t trust this is how it will go in Week 5.
• The Broncos’ passing attack has struggled with success rate this season, and they face an Eagles’ defense that is top-five in limiting successful passing attempts.
• I wouldn’t chase any Broncos’ receiver you weren’t already starting, but especially not Marvin Mims or Evan Engram.

Eagles (24.0 Implied Points)

• When the Eagles had a blocked punt return touchdown in the first quarter, you just knew that would destroy any hope for pass attempts in the 2nd half.
• Well, the Eagles completed zero (not a typo) passes in the 2nd half versus the Buccaneers last week.
• A.J. Brown dominated the targets with eight, but if you watched them, a bunch were mostly uncatchable and out of bounds, with the Buccaneers’ defensive backs making some great plays on those that were in bounds.
• The Eagles wanted to be more aggressive in this one, with 11.8% PROE in the 1st half before switching back to -18.6% prehistoric mode in the 2nd half.
• We’ll need the Broncos offense to push the Eagles to pass, but even if that happens, the Broncos have one of the best pass defenses in the league.

Cowboys at Jets (O/U 47.5, DAL -3)

Cowboys (25.25 Implied Points)

• In the absence of CeeDee Lamb, the targets consolidated around George Pickens (11), Jake Ferguson (seven), and Jalen Tolbert (six), with no other player seeing more than four.
• Javonte Williams dominated the RB work, taking 20 of the 23 carries and running 26 of the 38 routes.
• But that was with the context of Miles Sanders leaving with an injury in the 2nd quarter.
• Any significant Sanders injury would open the door for Jaydon Blue to actually be active on game day, but it’s still a massive hill to climb for relevance given the surprisingly good play of Williams.
• Dak Prescott played a fantastic game against an elite Packers defense, hitting 93rd percentile passing efficiency.
• Pickens and Ferguson are must-starts against a much weaker Jets pass defense.

Jets (22.25 Implied Points)

• The worst fantasy finish for a QB against Dallas this year has been QB8.
• That’s a whole lotta red on the Dallas defense passing column.
• You’re starting both Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, especially with the Braelon Allen injury.
• But that injury does make Isaiah Davis an interesting stash in deeper leagues as the clear backup for Hall.
• And Mason Taylor popped up in this game with seven targets.
• I was hopeful Taylor could wind up being the clear 2nd target in this offense, and perhaps it’s starting to click.
• He’s a desperation TE in 14-team leagues with a great matchup and the hope the targets continue.

Dolphins at Panthers (O/U 45.5, MIA -1.5)

Dolphins (23.5 Implied Points)

• Tyreek Hill earned an insane six targets on only 12 routes last week, but then suffered a season-ending knee injury.
• In my opinion, this really only opens things up for Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane.
• Darren Waller earned four targets in his first game back, but he only ran 10 routes and was out-snapped 41 to 16 by Julian Hill.
• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, not Malik Washington, stepped into a full-time role after the Hill injury.
• You’ll remember him from his insane TD run on the Titans that we shouldn’t chase again.
• The defensive statistics for the Panthers are still a bit fraudulent because of how poorly the Falcons played against them in Week 3.
• You’re starting both Waddle and Achane, but I’d hold off on anyone else until we see Waller’s snaps increase.

Panthers (22.0 Implied Points)

• Tommy Tremble popped up as a target earner last week, tying for the team lead of seven with Tetairoa McMillan.
• I’m still pretty hesitant about suggesting him even as a desperation play.
• There was a three-way split in RB carries last week between Chuba Hubbard, Rico Dowdle, and Trevor Etienne.
• But all of Etienne’s work was in garbage time, as he played only one of the first 56 snaps, according to PFF.
• And Hubbard still ran the most routes with 22 of the 38.
• McMillan and Hubbard are the only viable options on this offense for fantasy.

Buccaneers at Seahawks (O/U 44.5, SEA -3)

Buccaneers (20.75 Implied Points)

• The targets consolidated around Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin, with each earning 10 in the absence of Mike Evans.
• Godwin only reeled in three of those targets, though, making him a pretty obvious buy-low candidate if the Godwin manager is disappointed after waiting for Godwin this long.
• Bucky Irving dominated the carries 15 to six compared to Rachaad White, but it was a pretty even route split.
• My assumption is that Irving rotated out a bit more than usual because of an ankle injury, the severity of which I don’t know at the time of writing.
• Especially if Irving is out, I think the 28th-ranked Bucs’ running game will struggle against the 3rd-best rushing defense in the league this week.
• I’d expect a larger PROE for the Bucs in this one, who have at least shown a willingness to pass more than expected in Weeks 1 and 2.

Seahawks (23.75 Implied Points)

• Last week was a weird game for the Seahawks, as the targets were really spread around instead of dominated by Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
• It was a completely even snap and route split between Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, but Walker did have a 19 to 12 carry lead.
• The Seahawks are using a heavy dose of 2-TE sets this year, with the graph below showing they’re 3rd in the league in 2-TE set rate and slightly above average in efficiency on those throws.
• That is allowing Elijah Arroyo’s snap rate to continue to rise.
• My main issue with the Seahawks is their -10% PROE shows they’re trying not to lose rather than trying to win.
• Sam Darnold continues to be extremely efficient on very low volume.
• He might be forced to pass more if the Seahawks fail to establish the damn run against the league’s best run defense this week.

Titans at Cardinals (O/U 41.5, ARI -8.5)

Titans (16.5 Implied Points)

• You can safely bench all Tennessee Titans in fantasy football.
• Elic Ayomanor led the way with five targets last week, making him the least-exciting team-WR1 in the NFL.
• Calvin Ridley played only 27 of the 50 snaps and 13 of the 31 routes, including only three of 18 snaps in the 4th quarter, according to PFF.
• He’s apparently dealing with an undisclosed injury, but I’m not sure it changes much for us in fantasy.
• Tony Pollard continues to dominate the RB work, handling 14 of the 15 RB carries and running 24 of the 29 routes.
• If Tyjae Spears eats into Pollard’s workload at all when he’s back from IR, it’s over for Pollard.

Cardinals (25.0 Implied Points)

• Both Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. earned 10 targets last week, as the Cardinals went very pass-heavy in order to catch up.
• I don’t think they’ll have to do that this week against the Titans, but you’re starting both of them and no other Cardinals’ pass catchers.
• Trey Benson and Emari Demercado had an even route split, but Benson earned five targets and took eight of the only 11 RB carries.
• Benson has taken the James Conner role, while Demercado is the 3rd-down and 2-minute drill back.
• Kyler Murray continues to compete for the lowest average target depth and highest sack rate in the league, but at least the sack rate portion should improve after playing the Titans.

Commanders at Chargers (O/U 48.5, LAC -3)

Commanders (22.75 Implied Points)

• Without Terry McLaurin last week, Deebo Samuel led the team with six targets, Zach Ertz was second with four on a below-average snap rate, and then a ton of players had two or three targets.
• The RB carries were similarly split between Chris Rodriguez and Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt, with both Samuel and Jeremy McNichols also getting a few attempts.
• McNichols ran the most RB routes, but it’s a real mess at the position, as the three RBs almost had exactly one-third of the snaps each.
• It’s hard to trust any of these RBs given that workload split.
• It’s a tough matchup against an elite Chargers defense this week, so you’re hoping Jayden Daniels is back in time for this one if you’re starting Samuel.

Chargers (25.75 Implied Points)

• Boy, was I wrong on Quentin Johnston this season, as he dominated the team with 13 targets last week and is WR5 in both actual and expected points on the season if we remove Malik Nabers.
• Omarion Hampton attempted all of the only 12 RB carries last week and dominated the RB routes.
• Oronde Gadsden’s playing time increased after a strong Week 3, and he’s now playing ahead of Tyler Conklin in all situations, according to PFF.
• I didn’t include the TE buy-low candidates because the names listed are mostly boring, but Gadsden’s expected points are about two points higher per game than his actual points, and the hope is that his playing time increases further.
• The Joe Alt injury is a big deal for the Chargers, though, as Herbert was pressured on 20 of his 44 dropbacks (45.5%) in Week 4 compared to 38.9% in Weeks 1 through 3.
• That’s the difference between being near the top in league-wide pressure rate and closer to the middle.
• The Commanders’ pass defense is bottom-five in efficiency but middle-of-the-road in sack rate.

Lions at Bengals (O/U 49.5, DET -10)

Lions (29.75 Implied Points)

• Jameson Williams’ usage was insane last week, as he earned seven targets with an average target depth of 25.1 yards.
• That target depth was seven yards higher than the next closest WR with five or more targets.
• If he reels all of those in, he’s the WR1 overall on the week, instead of settling for two catches and 40 yards.
• Jahmyr Gibbs continues to take a larger share of this backfield than we’ve been used to, handling 15 carries to David Montgomery’s nine, and running 16 routes to Montgomery’s seven.
• And the Lions go from playing one of the best defenses in the league last week to one of the worst this week.
• Fire up your Lions with nearly 30 implied points.

Bengals (19.75 Implied Points)

• It’s pretty dark for the Bengals right now, combining for 13 points in their last two games.
• Ja’Marr Chase is WR17 and Tee Higgins is WR46 in expected points right now.
• They’re both talented enough to exceed those expected points, but they’re severely held back by Jake Browning.
• Chase Brown at least dominated the RB work, handling 10 of the 11 RB carries and 19 of the 28 RB routes.
• But that sound you hear is every Bengals player plummeting in rankings throughout the industry.

Patriots at Bills (O/U 50.5, BUF -8.5)

Patriots (21.0 Implied Points)

• Drake Maye played out of his mind last week, hitting 99th percentile passing efficiency and completing 20.4% more of his passes than expected.
• Someone finally stepped up and took a significant target lead in this offense, with Stefon Diggs earning seven targets and no other pass catcher exceeding three.
• And Diggs’ playing time and route rate still have room to grow further.
• The RB work is still a three-way mess.
• If you had to pick one for the upcoming week, I think you’d pick Rhamondre Stevenson, given he ran 13 of the 21 RB routes.
• But TreVeyon Henderson and Antonio Gibson were the backs that scored last week, as Henderson took the short-yardage snaps and Gibson the goal-line work.
• I’m ideally only starting Maye and Diggs on the Patriots for the moment, with the continued hope of Henderson bell-cow usage at some point in 2025.

Bills (29.5 Implied Points)

• The Bills only had 21 total targets last week, with Khalil Shakir leading the team with five as the Bills played down a bit to the Saints.
• James Cook continues to dominate the RB work post-contract, taking 22 of the 24 carries and running two-thirds of the routes.
• Jackson Hawes surprisingly played 100% of the snaps in both 2- and 3-TE sets, and the most snaps in 1-TE sets, according to PFF.
• That left Dalton Kincaid to play on only 22 of 59 snaps, though he did lead the position with 16 of 28 routes.
• With three TDs on the season but only two targets last week, Kincaid is scoring 4.6 more fantasy points per game than his usage would suggest, behind only Darren Waller and Dallas Goedert at the position.
• It was nice to see Josh Allen’s average target depth hit 10.2 yards last week, even if most of his value was driven through yards after the catch.

Chiefs at Jaguars (O/U 46.5, KC -3.5)

Chiefs (25.0 Implied Points)

• Xavier Worthy’s return made this entire offense look watchable again, as Worthy led the team with eight targets.
• While most of Patrick Mahomes’ value was still in yards after the catch, he at least had a seven-yard average target depth last week and was willing to attempt some passes down the field.
• I continue to root for more Brashard Smith snaps, as he earned an elite four targets on only 10 routes last week.
• I think we can all agree that the Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt tandem is not sufficient for a team with championship aspirations.
• And Andy Reid mentioned that Matt Nagy wants to increase Smith’s reps every week.
• Ideally, I’m only starting Worthy on the Chiefs even with 25 implied points because the work behind Worthy is so spread out, and we now have a three-way route split among the RBs.
• The Jaguars’ defense has also been a big surprise this year, as they’re third in EPA per play and fifth in success rate allowed.

Jaguars (21.5 Implied Points)

• Another pretty disappointing day for BrIan Thomas Jr., but at least he earned seven targets.
• Brenton Strange actually tied Thomas for the team lead in targets, hitting seven targets in back-to-back games.
• And with any positive touchdown regression, Strange makes for a viable TE in deeper leagues.
• Travis Etienne dominated the RB carries last week, but it’s a three-way route split.
• That routes issue makes Etienne a pretty clear sell-high candidate, as he’s exceeding his expected points per game at the 4th-highest clip among RBs.
• We really need Travis Hunter to play in 3-WR sets in order for him to be fantasy-viable, but there is some small hope his offensive role expands as he played a lot less defense last week.
• It’s a tough matchup with a good Chiefs’ pass defense this week, but Trevor Lawrence hit 70th-percentile pass efficiency and completed slightly more passes than expected last week, which were big improvements from Week 3.