O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 5

Oct 01, 2025

Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 5 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
5	DET	CIN	31	26
3	BUF	NE	23	20
19	NYJ	DAL	32	13
12	KC	JAX	21	9
7	LAR	SF	16	9
9	SF	LAR	17	8
21	LAC	WAS	28	7
2	PHI	DEN	8	6
10	WAS	LAC	14	4
25	CAR	MIA	29	4
8	ARI	TEN	11	3
16	DAL	NYJ	18	2
1	DEN	PHI	3	2
6	ATL	BYE	6	0
23	CHI	BYE	23	0
11	GB	BYE	11	0
20	PIT	BYE	20	0
4	IND	LVR	4	0
13	TB	SEA	13	0
32	HOU	BAL	30	-2
17	NE	BUF	15	-2
26	NYG	NO	24	-2
24	SEA	TB	22	-2
30	LVR	IND	25	-5
14	BAL	HOU	7	-7
29	TEN	ARI	19	-10
18	MIN	CLE	5	-13
22	NO	NYG	9	-13
15	JAX	KC	1	-14
27	MIA	CAR	10	-17
31	CIN	DET	12	-19
28	CLE	MIN	6	-22

Lions @ Bengals

The Detroit Lions are the next team up to do whatever they’d like against a faltering Cincinnati Bengals defense. Ranking 27th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing offenses, it hasn’t mattered much that Trey Hendrickson is once again pushing up the leaderboard in pass rush win rate, as the team as a whole still ranks 25th, pressuring the quarterback on only 29.1% of dropbacks.

With Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown in easy plug-and-play territory, this also shapes up for a week that we can trust Jameson Williams. Let’s just hope the Lions have to continue passing the ball in the second half. Williams has turned 11 targets into a pedestrian 83 yards over the last two weeks, but he also exemplified his ceiling potential with a 2-108-1 stat line in Week 2 on the backs of 64 and 44-yard receptions against the Bears’ secondary.

Chiefs @ Jaguars

We’ve got a very intriguing matchup brewing in Jacksonville this weekend, as Josh Hines-Allen figures to spend a lot of time lined up across rookie left tackle Josh Simmons, who allowed his first professional sack to Baltimore’s Tavius Robinson in Week 4. Outside of that spotlight, though, the Chiefs should be pretty well equipped to handle the rest of the Jaguars' pass rush, as their interior defensive tackles have forced pressure on only 6.5% of opponent dropbacks, the fourth-lowest rate in the league.

This would give Patrick Mahomes time to cook outside the pocket when necessary, a situation in which he’s looked vintage through the early portion of the season. Mahomes (easily) leads the league in yards (245), yards per attempt (11.1), and QB rating (148.7) on pass attempts deemed “out of pocket.” With Xavier Worthy’s return, the quarterback now has some semblance of a real WR room, which pushes him back into top-5 territory, while Worthy himself should be considered a top-10 option in Week 5.

Rams vs. 49ers

The 49ers' injuries continue to stack up just one month into the 2025 season, and arguably the biggest blow came when Nick Bosa went down with a torn ACL in Week 3. In their first game without him, San Francisco failed to register a sack on Trevor Lawrence, with Bosa’s replacement, Bryce Huff, notching only two pressures on 24 pass-rush snaps. The pass-rush as a whole forced pressure on 11.1% of Lawrence’s non-blitzed dropbacks, a -19.7% pressure-rate “over expected” (a metric to quantify what a pressure rate should be based on QB time to throw). Through the first three weeks, with Bosa around to create havoc, those respective numbers were 33.8% and 0.24%. The Niners’ defensive front hasn’t been anything to write home about, but Bosa was single-handedly turning them into a league-average unit.

This week, that toothless pass rush faces off against Matthew Stafford, who is quietly the second-leading passer in the league (Dak Prescott), and ranks 15th in fantasy points per dropback when not facing pressure. Fifteenth might not sound that impressive, but let’s take into context that Stafford has -4 rushing yards on the season, while a lot of guys above him (Jackson, Fields, Hurts, etc.) are racking up fantasy production with their legs.

Stafford is in streaming territory here in our first round of byes, while this is certainly a situation where we can keep Davante Adams in high-end WR2 consideration.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Cardinals vs. Titans

At this point, streaming against rookie quarterback Cam Ward has become a weekly cheat code. Ward has taken 17 sacks through four games while posting just two passing touchdowns against two interceptions with a 51.2% completion rate. Opposing defenses have capitalized in a big way: the first four D/STs to face Tennessee have scored 14, 8, 15, and 14 fantasy points, averaging a hefty 12.8 per game. The matchups haven’t been cupcakes either, which makes it even more concerning for the Titans. They currently rank 29th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses, and until Ward shows signs of stability, Tennessee will remain one of the softest weekly targets for D/ST streamers.

In the IDP streets, here is what Ryan Noonan had to say about Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson;

“So far this season, 28.39% of all tackles against the Titans have come from the safety position, which is 6.76% above the league average rate. Both Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson play a ton of snaps in the box each week, and Thompson is playing a ton in the slot now that Garrett Williams is out of the lineup for Arizona, raising his floor every week. We also have the Cardinals scorekeeper on our side, with a generous rate of assists handed out every week in the desert.”

Giants @ Saints

If people weren’t already paying attention to rookie edge rusher Abdul Carter, he certainly did his best to turn some heads against a depleted Chargers’ offensive line in Week 4. In what has already been an impressive season, Carter racked up eight pressures and will now set his sights on a Saints o-line that ranks dead last in blown block rate (3.96%).

Just as reinforcements were on the way in New Orleans, right guard Cesar Ruiz went down, meaning we’ve got more new faces rotating around the line here in Week 5. Torricelli Simpkins, a rookie UDFA, looks to get the start, and he brings with him a 95.7 pass-blocking efficiency mark, which ranks 62nd out of 72 guards with at least 100 snaps.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Back Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
5	DET	CIN	28	23
2	PHI	DEN	25	23
1	DEN	PHI	24	23
8	ARI	TEN	31	23
4	IND	LVR	16	12
15	JAX	KC	26	11
19	NYJ	DAL	29	10
3	BUF	NE	13	10
22	NO	NYG	30	8
17	NE	BUF	22	5
14	BAL	HOU	18	4
12	KC	JAX	14	2
32	HOU	BAL	32	0
6	ATL	BYE	6	0
23	CHI	BYE	23	0
11	GB	BYE	11	0
20	PIT	BYE	20	0
13	TB	SEA	12	-1
7	LAR	SF	6	-1
10	WAS	LAC	5	-5
25	CAR	MIA	20	-5
28	CLE	MIN	23	-5
9	SF	LAR	3	-6
29	TEN	ARI	21	-8
16	DAL	NYJ	8	-8
26	NYG	NO	17	-9
24	SEA	TB	15	-9
21	LAC	WAS	7	-14
27	MIA	CAR	11	-16
18	MIN	CLE	1	-17
30	LVR	IND	10	-20
31	CIN	DET	9	-22

Jets vs. Cowboys

Although the pass protection has been pretty touch-and-go for the New York Jets through the team’s first four games, they have looked quite a bit better in the run game. Their 2.13 RB yards before contact is the third-best rate in the league, while their young tackle tandem has done a good job of getting people out of the way. Breece Hall actually leads the league in yards before contact while running to either C gap (5.80), and ranks behind only Derrick Henry and Omarion Hampton in yards per carry (8.30) in those situations.

The banged-up Dallas Cowboys secondary has been the source of a lot of frustrations, but their run defense also ranks 29th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the running back position. With no Braelon Allen around to soak up short-down runs, Hall is an RB1 with legit top-3 upside in this matchup.

Broncos @ Eagles

The Denver Broncos’ offensive line ranks fifth in adjusted line yards (4.96), and the Philadelphia Eagles’ defensive line ranks 31st in the inverted version of that same metric (5.11). What more could you want?

Some more clarity on the backfield situation would be at the top of the list, I’m sure, but this is probably something we’re going to have to deal with for most of the season. A week after seeing only 15 snaps (and two carries), the Broncos opted to give rookie RJ Harvey a much larger role in the Week 4 annihilation of the Cincinnati Bengals, including a 12-yard touchdown deep in the fourth quarter. This game figures to be (much) closer, so we’ll have to see exactly what type of tomfoolery Sean Payton comes up with, meaning Harvey is closer to an RB3/4 than a locked-in option. J.K. Dobbins should retain his RB2 status in Week 5.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: